Latest Data Show Central Europe Winters Cooling Over Past 30 Years…Germany’s February Almost 3°C Below Normal!

Germany’s 2017/18 winter (December-January-February) came in moderately above normal in terms of mean temperature (+0.7°C), according to DWD German national weather service data recorded from its 2000 measurement stations scattered across the country. But February was a completely different story.

Seb thinks Central Europe is warming

First, in a recent comment, warmist reader Seb claimed that Germany saw a “pretty ‘normal’ February”. Yet DWD here just reported that the mean temperature for the month was -1.7°C (preliminary), which is 2.7°C below the 1981 – 2010 mean.

That’s quite a bit colder than “pretty normal”. And we expect that number will be revised a tenth or so of a degree colder over the coming weeks.

Seb added in his comment:

What would be a surprise would your predictions of a cooling climate to become true. Let’s fast forward 5-10 years and see who will laugh at whom …”

Looking at the 30-year trend (the time period used to define climate) we see that the trend for February in Germany is clearly downward (I added the latest data point for February to the chart, which was provided by Josef Kowatsch last year):

In the chart above, using the data from the DWD German national weather service, we see that the trend for February over the past 31 years in Germany is clearly downward.

Since 1988, the mean February temperature has in fact fallen about 1°C. That’s quite a surprise when we consider that it’s supposed to be getting warmer. Moreover, the data has not even been adjusted to take the urban heat island (UHI) into effect, Kowatsch says.

Who’s laughing?

Well Seb, we’re already laughing. That’s a rather foolish statement you’ve made. You need to look at the data before expressing such strange things. We’ve already been waiting for the warming 31 years, and there’s no need to wait another 5 or 10 years. But do keep pushing it off if you like – eventually it will get warmer because of natural cycles.

Germany’s highest peak, Zugspitze, set a new all-time record low for late February, measuring -30.5°C.

Central European winters gradually cooling over past 30 years

But that’s just the month of February, and arguably one could claim cherry-picking here. The cold trend in February, however, indeed matters because it impacts when spring starts in Central Europe. Data on this as well show that spring has been arriving later over the past 25 years, and not earlier.

Now looking at the winter trend (D-J-F), here as well we see there’s been no warming over the past three decades:

German winters have been cooling. Chart: Josef Kowatsch

20th coldest February in Austria

In neighboring Austria, the mean for February was also 2.0°C below the mean, according to Austria’s ZAMG national weather service here.

The ZAMG adds that in the mountains it was the 20th coldest February month since measurements began. Indeed Austria’s and Switzerland’s high elevation temperatures have cooled by a brisk 1.4°C over the past 30 years.

No warming in sight.

 

52 responses to “Latest Data Show Central Europe Winters Cooling Over Past 30 Years…Germany’s February Almost 3°C Below Normal!”

  1. Bitter&twisted

    Here’s a pre empt.
    DNFTT.

  2. AndyG55

    Seems early March temperatures are also dropping significantly in the USA and has been for quite a long time..

    https://realclimatescience.com/2018/03/plummeting-march-3-temperatures-in-the-us/

  3. AndyG55

    A new book for that beloved AGW fanatic in your life.

    Watch their head EXPLODE. 🙂

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/03/the-politically-incorrect-guide-to-climate-change-by-marc-morano/

    1. AndyG55

      The synopsis:

      “Less freedom. More regulation. Higher costs. Make no mistake: those are the sure-fire consequences of the modern global warming campaign waged by political and cultural elites, who have long ago abandoned fact-based science for dramatic fearmongering in order to push increased central planning. The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change gives a voice — backed by statistics, real-life stories, and incontrovertible evidence — to the millions of “deplorable” Americans skeptical about the multibillion dollar “climate change” complex, whose claims have time and time again been proven wrong.

      1. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

        “…the multibillion dollar ‘climate change’ complex…”

        you mean the…

        “the multiTRILLION dollar ‘climate change’ complex…”

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  7. tom0mason

    The point that seb has never conceded is that with HadCRUT4 data-set showing that there has only been 0.78°C of net warming since 1850. Thus the warming rate is 0.47°C/century and, when compared to historical variation, is perfectly in line with the natural recovery from the 1690 (or there about) ‘cold point’ of the Little Ice Age. So logically there has been absolutely no detectable warming much above the approximately 0.5°C/century natural variation in the past 167 years in spite of all the CO2 since 1850.

    The other point he conveniently misses, is that increases in atmospheric CO2 is not a driver of global temperatures, CO2 is a LAGGING indicator of this planet warming. All the indicators show this! Atmospheric CO2 levels rising is the natural consequence of this natural warming since the LIA and the iceage before it — land and sea naturally outgass as temperatures rise. I hope it rises some more as higher atmospheric CO2 level is good for ALL life.

    Given that the sun and it’s variations is the driver of both our weather and climate, and that the record of solar cycles have been shown to be a reasonable indicator of how the climate changed over time, it does not take much to see that as we enter the solar minimum the planet will cool. Also history shows us that during this transition period, anomalous weather will be more evident — more drought condition in countries susceptible to them, more winter storms in temperate regions of the world, overall more wild weather weather events.
    It will take some 5 years or so from now, before the new solar cycle 25 begins to re-establish some real warmth to the planet, before it starts to counter the extended lack of activity of solar cycle 24. However if solar cycle 25 turns out as expected by some researchers, then we’ll only have a slightly more active sun — that would ensure an extended period of cooler (and probably cooling) conditions worldwide, regardless of CO2 levels.

    We will be living in some interesting times, weatherwise.

    1. AndyG55

      I like to consider that human released CO2 was a trigger for increased plant growth which triggered further release of CO2, leading to the slight, but highly beneficial atmospheric increase out of the unsustainable “danger zone” of sub 280ppm levels.

      It is GOOD that humans have contributed somewhat to the biosphere that sustains all life on this CARBON BASED planet of ours. 🙂

      1. tom0mason

        Oh yes AndyG55,

        We were all doing our bit, burning oil, and coal (aka fossilized sunshine), helping all life to flourish.

    2. SebastianH

      So logically there has been absolutely no detectable warming much above the approximately 0.5°C/century natural variation in the past 167 years in spite of all the CO2 since 1850.

      Does it help to tell that to yourself? Anyway, CO2 emissions increased during that time period and exponentially so. (meaning half of all CO2 emitted by mankind was emitted since the last doubling time. At a growth rate of 2% that was 35 years ago. What is the average temperature increasein the HadCrut4 data for that period? Or the last 10 years?

      The other point he conveniently misses, is that increases in atmospheric CO2 is not a driver of global temperatures, CO2 is a LAGGING indicator of this planet warming.

      Yeah it is, but I hope you are not implying the concentration we are observing is all natural from outgasing because of the higher temperatures? That does somewhat conflict with the other skeptic viewpoint, that it isn’t warming at all and the equations for this outgasing, well we do understand the physics of this process pretty well. For that the partial CO2 pressure in the oceans need to be higher than in the atmosphere. That is not the case.

      Question is, what will you do if predictions of global warming due to CO2 continue to hold true. With what excuse will you then come up? All the data is fake?

      1. Kenneth Richard

        Question is, what will you do if predictions of global warming due to CO2 continue to hold true.

        Uh, the predictions of global warming due to CO2 have not continued to “hold true”. In fact, the predictions of 0.3 C per decade warming in climate models have not only not held “true”, they’ve been demonstrably wrong for the last 25 years.
        —–
        Zhou and Wang, 2017
        https://www.nature.com/articles/srep31789
        Land surface air temperature (Ta) is one of the fundamental variables in weather and climatic observations, modeling, and applications. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has remained rather steady and has even decreased in the central and eastern Pacific since 1998. This cooling trend is referred to as the global “warming hiatus”
        —–
        Hedemann et al., 2017
        http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3274.html
        https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/75831381/Hedemann%202017.pdf
        Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified. … The observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17 ◦C per decade from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble-mean projection—a gap two to four times the observed trend. The hiatus therefore continues to challenge climate science.
        —–
        Xie et al., 2017
        http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4809/abstract
        As the recent global warming hiatus has attracted worldwide attention, we examined the robustness of the warming hiatus in China and the related dynamical mechanisms in this study. Based on the results confirmed by the multiple data and trend analysis methods, we found that the annual mean temperature in China had a cooling trend during the recent global warming hiatus period, which suggested a robust warming hiatus in China. The warming hiatus in China was dominated by the cooling trend in the cold season, which was mainly induced by the more frequent and enhanced extreme-cold events.
        —–
        Xian and Fu, 2017
        http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5130/abstract
        Despite continually increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas, there has been a hiatus in rising global temperatures during the 21st century.
        —–
        Your logic is flawed. Just because temperature increases (in some regions of the world) at the same time that CO2 emissions increase does not mean that one can conclude that human CO2 emissions caused the oceans to warm.

        http://www.softschools.com/examples/fallacies/post_hoc_examples/502/

        1. SebastianH

          The hiatus nonsense again … how predictable.

          Your logic is flawed. Just because temperature increases (in some regions of the world) at the same time that CO2 emissions increase does not mean that one can conclude that human CO2 emissions caused the oceans to warm.

          By now you should know that this is not what climate science is basing AGW on. If you want to see correlations that work this way: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

          Why do you feel the need to make something like this up? Or is this really how you understand the mechanisms involved? Or is this some kind of revenge for me pointing out your logical fallacy last time?

          1. Kenneth Richard

            The hiatus nonsense again

            So scientists who publish papers about the hiatus…are writing nonsense? How substantive.

            Or is this some kind of revenge for me pointing out your logical fallacy last time?

            What “logical fallacy” would that be?

          2. SebastianH

            What “logical fallacy” would that be?

            http://notrickszone.com/2018/03/01/another-new-paper-shows-arctic-sea-ice-has-been-increasing-overall-since-the-1930s/#comment-1253803

            “Saying A can not be the cause of B, because in the past C caused B is a fallacy and is called – i had to google it – “Denying the antecedent”.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denying_the_antecedent

            So scientists who publish papers about the hiatus…are writing nonsense? How substantive.

            Yes, they are. Even scientists can write nonsense. I hope that is not a suprise to you? Or are only those who you don’t like guilty of doing that?

          3. Kenneth Richard

            Even scientists can write nonsense.

            Considering the IPCC has acknowledged the “hiatus” and the failure of climate models (111 of 114 CMIP5 simulations) in their last report, it would appear your definition of “nonsense” is a conclusion that does not support that which you believe. If it agrees with your point of view (i.e., the Earth is browning, not greening, ocean acidification is happening so fast that the marine biosphere cannot adapt to it, etc.), it’s scientific truth, and anyone who questions it should be labeled a denier of truth. If it doesn’t agree with your point of view, it’s “nonsense”. That’s pretty much what your “rebuttals” come down to.

          4. tom0mason

            “The hiatus nonsense” that the IPCC in their publications mentions it.

          5. tom0mason

            For real nonsense about the ‘hiatus’ see the cAGW bible at https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf
            In particular Box 9.2: Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years, page 769

          6. AndyG55

            “Even scientists can write nonsense.”

            Yes seb , and all those so-called “climate scientists” that you suck up to, have made a fine art of writing nonsense.

            And you fall for it every single time, because you know no better.

          7. AndyG55

            “The hiatus nonsense again”

            You mean the 33 years of ZERO WARMING in the satellite data, right seb ?

            Only regional warming coming from El Nino and ocean effects, which humans have absolutely ZERO effect on.

            Its the Sun, seb

            If you thinks it from CO2 then its way passed time you actually produced some empirical evidence to back up your FANTASIES.

            But first, learn what the unit of “work” is.

            Show that you didn’t actually FAIL junior high.

            s

          8. AndyG55

            “Saying A can not be the cause of B,”

            Its just that there is ABSOLUTELY NO PROOF that A causes B.

            AGW science fantasy and ASS-umption driven models are NOT scientific proof.

            If you have proof that enhanced atmospheric CO2 causes warming, or causes Arctic sea ice loss or causes glaciers to melt….

            THEN PRODUCE IT.

            … or remain the sub-normal, EMPTY little AGW headless chook you have always been.

      2. AndyG55

        “of global warming due to CO2 continue to hold true”

        ROFLMAO

        The seb FANTASY yet again.. so hilarious

        Seb,little-mind.. there IS NO WARMNING FROM CO2

        Not in the oceans,

        Not in the atmosphere

        NOT ANYWHERE.

        It is all just an ANTI-SCIENCE FALLACY.

        Oh, and what was the unit of “work”, again, seb?

        What is the unit of “kinetic energy”?

        What is the unit of “strain energy”?

        See if you can get it right this time . 😉

      3. AndyG55

        “that it isn’t warming at all “

        wow seb, you really are just “MAKING CRAP UP” now, aren’t you.

        Yes, there has been some HIGHLY BENEFICIAL and TOTALLY NATURAL solar and ocean based warming out of the COLDEST PERIOD IN 10,000 years

        Show us some PROOF that any of that highly beneficial warming has come from enhanced atmospheric CO2.

        YOU HAVE NONE, because there ISN’T ANY.

        And you will just keep squirming and worming and slithering around, trying to avoid that FACT.

        1. yonason (from my cell phone)

          AND, what little data we DO have suggests that CO2 COOLS!
          https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018_03_03_01_12_06.png

        2. yonason (from my cell phone)

          AND, what little data we DO have suggests that CO2 COOLS!
          https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018_03_03_01_12_06.png

          1. SebastianH

            Don’t know if you are trolling or if you really think this is the case …

          2. AndyG55

            Poor seb,

            There is ZERO EVIDENCE of warming from enhanced atmospheric CO2.

            Get over it !

            What is the unit of “work”, seb?

            Why is it the same as the unit for “strain energy” in solids and “kinetic energy” in gases?

            Try to engage that tiny ignorant mind of yours, little trollette.

      4. tom0mason

        “Question is, what will you do if predictions of global warming due to CO2 continue to hold true. With what excuse will you then come up?”

        Your statement is just plain wrong!
        CO2 atmospheric levels are all but irrelevant to what the climate does, numerous studies show this, history shows this. Maybe you have an example of when a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels irrefutably cause the atmosphere to warm up — have you? Or are you living in the dank, depressing, and irrational world where correlation is evidence of causation? (Ha, ha, ha, so far it appears so!) As far as I am aware NOT such evidence has ever come to light in more than 30 years of looking for it. I am in no doubt that because of your irrationality on this matter, you can ascribe virtually any natural disaster to this myth of human generated CO2 causing global warming, and that is your problem.

        As I explained, YOU can not conceive of a rise in atmospheric CO2 being anything but bad for the planet, and yet at no point in history has this every held to be true. Therefore YOU are living in a delusion. YOU choose to ignore this reality because YOUR delusion can not allow YOU to see life otherwise. YOU are irrational on this point. YOU are unscientific on this point.

        Unlike Kenneth, I do not wish to argue with a delusional person. You keep you beliefs. I am not trying to convince you of anything. However I don’t mind goading you into making more irrational statements, or displaying just how illogical you are. It means the rest of us has laugh!

        Just to reinforce the message —

        Maybe you have an example of when a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels irrefutably cause the atmosphere to warm up — have you?
        Until you do I’m laughing at you, as your belief (for that is all you have) is in an world where correlation is evidence of causation.

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