Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low

Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt look at the sun and oceans in their latest report here at Die kalte Sonne.

The sunspot number for February 2018 was 10.6 and thus was some 30% below the meanfor this time into the cycle. At the moment solar activity is close to quiet.

Solar cycle no. 24 (red) compared to the mean of the previous 23 solar cycles (blue) and to the very similar solar cycle no. 5 ( black).

As the following comparison chart shows for 111 months into the cycle, the current cycle is the weakest we’ve seen in close to 200 years, and has been only some 55% as active as the mean cycle so far:

Low solar activity linked to cool global temperatures

As the figure above shows, solar cycle activity progresses in decades-long waves comprising above normal activity and below normal activity.

Low activity periods are associated with cool global temperatures and high activity periods with warmer temperatures. Many scientists believe that the earth is now entering a period of cooler temperatures as the next solar cycles 25 and 26 will be weak should the overall pattern continue.

There are are hundreds of scientific papers showing a link between climate and solar activity worldwide. A number of papers show that dry and wet periods at different regions are closely related to solar cycle activity as well.

Arctic sea ice surprise – volume rebounds

Just 10 years ago, all the talk was about the Arctic sea ice “death spiral”, with some of scientists hysterically predicting the sea ice would soon disappear altogether in the summertime. Ten years later the scientists are now scratching their heads as sea ice has stabilized and is showing some clear signs of a rebound.

Japanese skeptic climate blogger Kirye at Twitter posted a message showing how March sea ice volume has made a remarkable comeback in terms of volume (which is what really counts) compared to 2018 – despite the very warm Arctic surface temperatures seen this past winter.

Arctic ice cap has grown significantly in volume. Chart source: DMI

Kirye tweets: “The real sea ice thickness is much higher than in 2008. We have not even once seen climate alarmists’ predictions come true, and it is unlikely to happen in the future.”

“Volume highest in several years”

Tony Heller (who blogs under the Steve Goddard name) also commented on the ice volume growth at Twitter here: “In fact, Arctic sea ice is growing very rapidly and volume is highest in several years.”

Arctic temperatures plummet

The following chart shows how Arctic surface temperatures above 80°N latitude have plummeted over the past two weeks after a mild winter:

Robust recovery in the Antarctic

Sea ice expansion in the Antarctic also has seen a robust recovery in terms of sea ice area, according the the latest chart by the University of Bremen.

Source: AWI/U. of Bremen

Sea surface temperature back to normal

Although global temperatures spiked from 2015 to 2017, the spike was due to the El Nino phenomenon. The following chart depicts the sea surface temperature anomalies from the mean:

Sea surface temperature anomalies from Reynolds (NOAA).

Sea surface temperatures have since fallen back to near normal levels and it remains to be seen if a new higher plateau will be established after the 1998 El Nino event. In summary, most of the globe is not behaving as climate scientists expected.

40 responses to “Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low”

  1. La crescita del volume di ghiaccio nell'Artico sorprende mentre l'attività solare si avvicina al minimo di 200 anni : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Fonte: No Tricks Zone […]

  2. AndyG55

    “The real #Arctic sea ice thickness is much higher than in 2008”

    Russian charts validate this, with “old ice” being MUCH greater extent than ten years ago.

    https://s19.postimg.org/7u9de975v/Russian_ice.jpg

    1. SebastianH

      It’s funny if you include what else this guy wrote:

      Kirye tweets: “The real #Arctic sea ice thickness is much higher than in 2008. We have not even once seen climate alarmists’ predictions come true, and it is unlikely to happen in the future.”

      I know of several predictions from the skeptic community from that time that never came true 😉

      1. AndyG55

        YAWN !!!

  3. tom0mason

    No doubt the advocate burger flipper, aka seb, will be along to tell us how warm it is up at the pole. His statements are evidence that a demented mind has no rationality.

    1. Bitter&twisted

      DNFTT

      1. SebastianH

        I don’t need to feed him, he is pre-triggered already …

        1. AndyG55

          Yep, you are always pre-triggered, little troll.

          You CANNOT escape from yourself.

        2. tom0mason
  4. AndyG55

    Great post at JoNova

    Pruitt launches science bomb: insists EPA only use data that is public. No more secret science.

    ACTUAL SCIENCE rather than mantra.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/03/pruitt-launches-science-bomb-insists-epa-only-use-data-that-is-public-no-more-secret-science/

    And we have seen how INCAPABLE they are of producing real scientific evidence for even the most basic FALLACY of their agenda, ie warming by enhanced atmospheric CO2.

  5. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

    Wherein I read their panicked thoughts…

    “We must get them to act now. Time is of the essence, and the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Soon we will not be able to save the warming narrative.”

    1. tom0mason

      Yes indeed Yonason (from a friend’s comp),

      I await the UN to pontificate soon about everything about the climate being worse than we thought, and unleashing more politicized nonsense about having to do more to reduce atmospheric CO2, while marshaling their armies of brainwashed bozos to propagandize the fantasy cAGW messages widely. This desperate call will play out politically even though doing anything would have no effect now, or in the foreseeable future for either the CO2 levels or the climate.

      1. tom0mason

        However slowly the mood is changing. Recent papers highlighted here are evidence of this change in attitude —
        http://notrickszone.com/2017/12/28/7-new-2017-papers-forecast-global-cooling-another-little-ice-age-will-begin-soon/ , peer reviewed science papers that put meat on the bones of this cooling planet.

        Or http://notrickszone.com/2017/08/31/scientists-expose-data-manipulation-hide-the-decline-and-the-post-1940s-hockey-stick-temperature-myth/ that explains how the Mannian hockey-stick baloney is indeed rubbish, and that medieval warm period existed

        Or http://notrickszone.com/2017/08/24/attribution-shift-scientists-increasingly-link-climate-change-to-solar-forcing-in-scientific-journals/ with the quotes —

        “The emerging causal effects from SS [solar activity] to GT [global temperatures], especially for recent decades, are overwhelmingly proved” – Huang et al., 2017

        “Climate … follows SA [solar activity] fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial time scales” – Moreno et al., 2017

        “The solar ‘activity’ increase is the chief driver of the global temperature increase since the LIA [Little Ice Age]” – Page, 2017

        “A large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI [total solar irradiance] and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters” – Biktash, 2017

        “The activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago” – Yndestad and Solheim, 2017

        “The main driver of the large-scale character of the warm and cold episodes may be changes in the solar activity. Four warm periods – 1626–1637, 1800–1809, 1845– 1859, and 1986–2012 – have been identified to correspond to increased solar activity” – Tejedor et al., 2017

        Slowly, slowly the world is beginning to accept that the SUN, and not atmospheric CO2 levels, govern our planet’s weather and climate variations. The SUN and not CO2 governs how warm or cool this planet and it’s atmosphere gets.

        There is no reason to limit human originated CO2 levels, advocating such a daft idea is only politics and NOT science.

  6. AndyG55

    Nino3.4 remains solidly in La Nina territory

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

    And with Sol having a bit of a snooze, recharge after the large balancing El Nino/blob release of 2015-2017, will be very slow.

    1. SebastianH

      You do know that “La Nina territory” means the ocean is increasing its heat content and doesn’t release as much back to the atmosphere. Where do you think this increased heat content will go?

      1. AndyG55

        Seb doesn’t understand La Nina.

        Nothing unusual about seb not understanding anything.

        Sol is having a snooze, seb, the La Nina recharge will take a lot longer than usual.

        1. tom0mason

          “Seb doesn’t understand La Nina.”

          Of course he does not, he irrationally recites the script, giving not a moment of rational thought to it, and dumps it as a comment.

        2. SebastianH

          Do you two deny that heat content increases during La Nina phases and decreases during El Nino phases? The later one is essentially a cooling effect for the planet, a release of heat towards the atmosphere and ultimately space.

          1. AndyG55

            ROFLMAO.

            What a turn about.

            And now you realise that El Ninos have been the only cause of atmospheric warming. Well done, you have been told often enough. !!

            Only energy that can warm the oceans comes from the SUN, and its having a siesta at the moment.

            CO2 has ZERO WARMING EFFECT, as you well know, seb.

            Another tiny step towards basic understanding from seb.

            Now watch as he does another faceplant.

          2. SebastianH

            And now you realise that El Ninos have been the only cause of atmospheric warming. Well done, you have been told often enough. !!

            The cause of the warming is an increased heat content of the oceans. Eventually that also causes higher atmosphere temperatures.

            Only energy that can warm the oceans comes from the SUN, and its having a siesta at the moment.

            Bravo, captain obvious! Do you believe climate scientists that you would call “alarmist” claim that the energy doesn’t come from the Sun?

            Can you name the percentage the solar output decreased? And for bonus points the W/m² figure the solar forcing decreased in that “siesta”?

            Now watch as he does another faceplant.

            You are quite proficient in doing that yourself …

          3. AndyG55

            Seb FINALLY ADMITS that CO2 has NOTHING to do with ocean warming.

            Well done seb. 🙂

            Now try not to fall flat on your a**e with some anti-science AGW ranting. !!

          4. AndyG55

            “Can you name the percentage the solar output decreased? “

            From that question, I can see you tottering on the edge of another manic faceplant.

            You are going to imply that TSI is the only solar variable that changes during low activity periods, aren’t you, seb……..SPLATT !!!

          5. SebastianH

            Seb FINALLY ADMITS that CO2 has NOTHING to do with ocean warming.

            Comprehension 0 – Trolling 100?

            From that question, I can see you tottering on the edge of another manic faceplant.

            You are going to imply that TSI is the only solar variable that changes during low activity periods, aren’t you, seb……..SPLATT !!!

            Will you be mentioning cosmic radiation now and how it affects clouds? 😉

      2. John Brown

        SebH wants to think

        Does a cold ocean mean cold atmosphere or does a cold ocean mean warm atmosphere?

        He makes both statements but only one is correct!

        1. AndyG55

          “SebH wants to think”

          I see ZERO indication that he has any intention at all, of actually thinking. !!

        2. SebastianH

          He makes both statements but only one is correct!

          I am not making both statements. Ignore temperature for a moment and focus on heat content. That is what is determining temperature at the end.

          With identical energy input a cold surface causes the heat content to increase faster than a warm surface.

          1. John Brown

            SebH not right!While Heat capacity is temperature dependent the heat content increases in both cases the same in time and value. Only the temperature might behave differently, dependent on the Heat Capacity.

            So the temperature might rise faster or slower, but the heat content added is the same.

          2. AndyG55

            seb is NOT at all good at any sort of physics.

            His comprehension is VERY LIMITED at most.

            And that is being kind. !!!

  7. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

    I hope we don’t have a repeat of what happened when DMI started seeing a dramatic uptick in sea ice. They modified how it was presented, and afterward it showed at most a slight increase. With all the “adjustments” to data that don’t match the “theory” (models), I have grown to distrust the lot of them.

  8. John F. Hultquist

    “. . . believe that the earth is now entering a period of cooler temperatures as the next solar cycles 25 and 26 will be weak should the overall the (sic) pattern continue.

    Note the words “believe” and “pattern” in this statement.

    Solar physicists, folks that actually study the sun to try to understand how it works, have indicated that cycle 25 is expected to be stronger than 24.
    We have science versus Numerology.
    Take your pick and state it today.

    1. AndyG55

      Forecasts vary a lot, John, but the ones I can find in a very quick search seem to say 25 could be similar to 24 in strength.

      Maybe there are some new updates?

      Any forecasts from the Russian solar scientists?

      Here’s a couple I found.

      http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts.html

      https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/02/11/james-maruseks-forecast-for-solar-cycle-25/

      1. John F. Hultquist

        Go to this site:
        http://www.leif.org/research/

        Open document 2640. Find this statement, just above Figure 1.

        The observations in the coming year 2018 are crucial to assessing the final value of DM, but based on what we have now, one would predict Solar Cycle 25 to be slightly larger than Cycle 24.

        At the bottom of the next to last page, and the next, is this:
        The average DM for each cycle is shown with a heavy black line with light-blue circles.

        The circles are, in fact, green. (3/21/2018)
        Leif has been told, and may (or not) make a change.

        Leif is a senior member of Stanford University’s solar physics group.

        1. AndyG55

          Much easier to predict the past.

          So.. similar or maybe a bit stronger… perhaps. 🙂

          Certainly not like the cycles that warmed up the last half of last century. 😉

  9. Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low | Un hobby...

    […] F. Bosse and Prof. F. Vahrenholt, March 20, 2018 in […]

  10. Lasse

    It is bad news!
    Ice cover the sea and makes it harder to cool the heat in the water.
    No ice is a cooling device.

  11. Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Hits A Near 200-Year Low | Principia Scientific International

    […] Read more at No Tricks Zone […]

  12. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

    Speaking of the Antarctic…
    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5672

    And March is just the beginning of the end of Summer for them, too.

    How many times have expeditions gotten stranded in the balmy (barmy) waters there in recent years? When will they ever learn?

  13. Links for 'Eye-Opening' Info on Ontario's Hydro One You Should Know BEFORE they Own Avista!

    […] 20. Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low […]

  14. Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #309
  15. IAF 3/21/2018: GSM News, Ebner Effect, Plasma [Livestream] | ice age farmer

    […] Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low […]