Warm European April A Sign Of Cool Coming Summer, Statistics Unfortunately Suggest

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The media are bellowing about how April in Germany was the “all-time warmest ever recorded”, and so it has to be a clear sign of global warming (suddenly the colder than normal March and February have been forgotten).

Europe enjoyed a balmy April this year. Chart: NCEP.

What does the unusually warm Central European April mean for the rest of the summer, if anything?

It turns out that it very well might mean something. Schneefan (snow fan) at wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here reports that statistically the chances of a cool summer following for the continent are much higher than average.

He wrote that when one compares the seven warmest Aprils in Germany since 1961 to the respective summers that followed, one sees that the summers were awfully cool.

Schneefan looked at the hot Aprils of the years 1961, 1993, 2000, 2007, 2009 , 2011 and 2014 and their respective summers that followed. He calculated the average June-August temperature for the seven summers and compared the figure to the WMO 1981-2010 mean summer temperature. Here’s the result, according to NOAA data:

The NOAA-Reanalysis shows the average 2m temperature deviation for the seven June-August summers that followed warm Aprils in Europe since 1961. Source: NOAA reanalysis.

Clearly when Aprils in Central Europe are warm, summers that follow very much tend to be cooler than normal across Europe (except Scandinavia).

By comparison Schneefan’s statistical outlook into the future from April 11, 2018, using different years follows:

Source: NCEP

Here an NOAA reanalysis shows the average temperature deviation of the summers (June-August) of the years in Europe he chose (1984, 1985, 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2013) with respect to the WMO 1981-2010 mean for the summer months. While far northern Europe showed above average temperatures, the large bulk of part of Europe was cooler than normal.

Here we see the stunning similarity in Europe between both analyses using entirely different selection criteria.

We can only hope that the statistical trend does not get reaffirmed, especially during the time of the World Cup. The cool global conditions also remain unchanged as the La Niña: is expected to persist.

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39 responses to “Warm European April A Sign Of Cool Coming Summer, Statistics Unfortunately Suggest”

  1. A C Osborn

    Is that analysis NOAA base or German BOM based?

  2. SebastianH

    What does the unusually warm Central European April mean for the rest of the summer?

    Amazingly you found something that still enables you to forecast cooling 😉

    Average summer temperatures in Germany of those years in the first graph?
    1961: 15.6°C
    1993: 15.8°C
    2000: 16.6°C
    2007: 17.2°C
    2009: 17.2°C
    2011: 16.8°C
    2014: 17.1°C

    Notice a trend?

    Here we see the stunning similarity in Europe between both analyses using entirely different selection criteria.

    Those years aren’t chosen randomly, Pierre …

    Here is the statistical trend for Germany from 1881 to 2018 … notice how April temperatures correlate with Summer temperatures? Me neither.

    https://imgur.com/a/qQMaXj9

    But you surely can notice the overall trend in the bubble graph towards warmer temperatures in more recent years, right?

    1. AndyG55

      “Notice a trend?”

      Yes, Germany is , quite understandably, affected by the AMO.

      Notice that even your temps peak around 2007, 2009.

      Try another faceplant, seb. Your natural position.

      1. SebastianH

        *sigh* the master insulter at it again …

        Try this link for the German summer trend:
        https://www.dwd.de/DWD/klima/national/gebietsmittel/brdras_ttt_14_de.jpg

        … instead of an incomplete list of years with a “peak” at 2007, 2009. Even you must have noticed I was merely repeating Pierre’s/Schneefan’s list …

        1. AndyG55

          AMO,

          Do try to learn SOMETHING this century , seb !!

          It was your list,seb

          Faceplant yet again. !!

          1. SebastianH

            This is really strange … are you an automated bot? I am asking because you seem to have limited answers and comprehension of what people write seems also to be limited.

          2. AndyG55

            And you have ZERO ANSWERS to support your AGW cult belief.

            And ZERO comprehension of any science or physics beyond junior high level.

            And you are DETERMINED to remain UN-EDUCATED passed that level.

          3. SebastianH

            That kind of proves it … thank you. Who is your programmer?

          4. AndyG55

            Proves you are nothing but a empty minded troll.

            Where’s that proof of CO2 warming , seb.

            Remain a “believer”…

            … just take it on FAITH.

            But at least have the GUTS to admit you have NOTHING but your brain-hosing to fall back on..

    2. AndyG55

      Seb has finally discovered the LIA COLD ANOMALY.

      And wonders why the world has warmed slightly but NATURALLY since then.

      Or does seb think the LIA temperatures were “normal”?

      I don’t think seb has the slightest clue , what “normal” or “average” are, having been “sub” all his life.

      1. SebastianH

        AndyG55, it doesn’t matter what you think is normal or what baseline you use to calculate anomalies from. That doesn’t change the slope nor the reason for the current warming …

        1. AndyG55

          “That doesn’t change the slope nor the reason for the current warming …”

          So true.

          Only warming has come form El Ninos in the last 40 years.

          ZERO trend for 33 of the 40 years.

          ABSOLUTELY ZERO proof of any human influence at all.

          Absolutely ZERO PROOF that CO2 has any warming effect anywhere, anytime, anyhow..

          Thank for finally agreeing that the recent slight, but HIGHLY BENEFICIAL warming out of the COLD ANOMALY that was the LIA, has come from PURELY NATURAL causes…. ie mostly the SUN

          Anomalies calculated from the Holocene normal would all be rather on the COLD side of the ledger.

          Wouldn’t you agree , seb !!

          1. SebastianH

            Only warming has come form El Ninos in the last 40 years.

            You still haven’t exlpained how that would work. How does an El Nino cause lasting warming?

          2. AndyG55

            Sorry you have FAILED to comprehend every time its been explained.

            Your problem to fix.

            El Nino is from stored SOLAR energy..,

            You should be able to figure it out from there..

            ….if you have more than 1 functional brain cell.. !!!

            I wouldn’t expect you to comprehend that the SUN causes warming, though.

          3. SebastianH

            You have never explained how this works. El Nino events decrease the OHC and the warmer surface causes the atmosphere as well. Usually a La Nina event follows. The effect of an El Nino event is not a continuous one, so how does this work?

            Or are you somehow saying that more energy from Sun is absorbed by the oceans and that causes the temperature of the atmosphere to increase as well? Now, you aren’t, that would mean you accept that the GHE exists 😉

          4. AndyG55

            Poor seb, UNAWARE of SOLAR energy

            Still living in his AGW fantasy land.

            Your stretch of rational arguements borders on the hallucinogenic.

            “Or are you somehow saying that more energy from Sun is absorbed by the oceans and that causes the temperature of the atmosphere to increase as well? Now, you aren’t,
            ….. that would mean you accept that the GHE exists “

            What a totally bizarre connection you child-mind makes.

            Knowing that the SUN warms the oceans, which then warms the atmosphere, is NOTHING to do with the GHE…

            …. except is some fevered hallucinogenic AGW-cult imagination

            And certainly NOTHING to do with CO2.

          5. SebastianH

            Kenneth – if you are reading this – how is a posting like this acceptable? 🙂

            AndyG55, never mind. You troll away and have fun. I’ll stop replying to you once again. Pointless endeavor.

          6. AndyG55

            “I’ll stop replying to you once again.”

            I bet you can’t, you like the attention too much

            Its what you live for.

  3. yonason (from my cell phone)

    A fellow over at the Moonbattery blog posted a nice collection of links on current cooling.
    http://moonbattery.com/open-thread-2439/#comment-3882195802

    1. SebastianH

      Good luck with lists like that. I just randomly clicked one links (“Earths upper atmosphere is cooling”) and surprise, what can we read there?

      This finding also correlates with a fundamental prediction of climate change theory that says the upper atmosphere will cool in response to increasing carbon dioxide.

      1. AndyG55

        Basically everything correlates with one of the VAST range of “predictions” made by the AGW cult.

        They also correlate VERY WELL with NATURAL CYCLIC and SOLAR driven climate VARIABILITY.

        That is what is so funny about the AGW cult.

        ANYTHING at all could reinforce their manic beliefs.

  4. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

    Here’s another list from 2014.

    It’s as devastating to AGW theory/policy as it is extensive.
    http://www.c3headlines.com/recent-climate-energy-science-headlines-of-interest.html

    Just one picked at random, and it knocks their nonsense out of the park.
    http://dailycaller.com/2014/11/13/9-graphs-that-prove-using-fossil-fuels-hasnt-harmed-the-planet/

    1. SebastianH

      It’s as devastating to AGW theory/policy as it is extensive.

      Nope.

      Just one picked at random, and it knocks their nonsense out of the park.

      Seriously a dailycaller link to an article marked as “opinion”?

      But I’ll bite … AndyG55 wrote above that for AGW proponents anything would correlate, well here you have the proof that this dailycaller author definetely has this problem. And praying the fossil fuel mantra as if it was his church … on top of that relativization everywhere. Yep, correctly marked as an opinion piece.

      Keep at it Yonason, someday you might find a link that makes a convincing argument … but not today.

      1. AndyG55

        You are becoming more and more incoherent and cognitively dysfunctional, seb

        Stop writing puerile nonsense.

        You STILL haven’t got a single scientific argument to back up your MANIC CULT-LIKE BELIEF of CO2 warming.

      2. AndyG55

        Are you actually DENYING that fossil fuels have lead to a much higher level of living for EVERYONE in the develop world?

        It allows for industry to control REAL pollution, because provide steady REALIABLE power.

        It certainly allows for improved water resources due to pumping , pressure and UV treatment, drilling, distribution, filtration. All the equipment is made using fossil fuels and run using power from fossil fuels.

        For the same reason , it provide for much better sanitation.

        It also helps keep a semi-adequate amount of CO2 in the atmosphere for plant growth, helping to feed the world.

        Everything and EVERYONE in modern society is ABSOLUTELY DEPENDS on that SOLID, RELIABLE energy, that wind and solar CAN NEVER PROVIDE.

        Yes, seb.. even YOU. !!

        ABSOLUTELY DEPENDANT on it, and on the atmospheric CO2 around you.

        Why do you HATE EVERYTHING SO MUCH that you wish to curtail it????

        Including yourself apparently.. otherwise you wouldn’t be here.

        Is your life and soul really that worthless to you that you feel the need to troll mindlessly on sites where you are considered a base-level piece of nothingmess ???

        Look at your life, seb.. if you can find it. !!

        1. SebastianH

          See, that is the problem with seeing correlation in everything. It wasn’t the fossil fuels that made modern civilization possible, it was (and is) the energy. It makes no difference if the energy comes from a nuclear reactor, a dam, a wind turbine, a solar panel or from fossil fuel. Energy is energy.

          If you are a fan of these kind of correlations: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

          There you can find out that U.S. spending on science, space and technology correlates with suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation. Who would have thought that one is fueling the other?

          Why do you HATE EVERYTHING SO MUCH that you wish to curtail it????

          From the style of your writing I think it is pretty clear who is the “hater” here.

          Is your life and soul really that worthless to you that you feel the need to troll mindlessly on sites where you are considered a base-level piece of nothingmess ???

          This for example … pure hate.

          1. AndyG55

            Poor seb

            You can’t even admit to his own reason for being here

            EVADE the point seb.

            Its all you can do.

            It does make a difference. Wind and solar cannot provide ON DEMAND. They are a interference to the supply system.

            Your DENIAL that fossil fuels are TOTALLY ESSENTIAL for the existence of modern society is quite irrational and shows just how divorced your mind is from REALITY.

            Yep your posts are always dripping with pure troll-like despite.

            Everyone knows that is your ONLY purpose for being here.. you just don’t have the guts to ADMIT IT.

          2. AndyG55

            “It wasn’t the fossil fuels that made modern civilization possible”

            Incredibly bizarre DENIAL on your behalf seb.

            But DENIAL of FACTS is all you have to maintain your manic cult-like belief, isn’t it.

            FOSSIL FUELS are ESSENTIAL for the very being of modern human civilisation.

  5. Rekordowy kwiecień i co dalej? - Pogoda i Klimat

    […] Tegoroczny kwiecień pobił wszelkie rekordy ciepła. Na historycznej stacji w Krakowie jego średnia temperatura osiągnęła 15.4°C i była o 0.5°C wyższa od rekordu z 1800. Wiele osób zdaje się sugerować, że za tak niezwykły kwiecień przyjdzie nam zapłacić chłodnym latem i tutaj przywołują przykład chociażby roku 2000, w którym po wyjątkowo ciepłym kwietniu pod koniec czerwca “lato się skończyło”. Lipiec 2000 był wyjątkowo chłodny (-2.19°C, 43. najzimniejszy lipiec w latach 1781-2018), sierpień niemal dokładnie w normie dla lat 1981-2010, a wrzesień ponownie zimny. Zdecydowanie od końca czerwca aura nas nie rozpieszczała (przynajmniej do jesieni, która okazała się wyjątkowo ciepła, co spowodowało, że rok 2000 okazał się być rekordowo ciepły, a pobił go dopiero rok 2014, a później również 2015). Taki przebieg temperatur w okresie wiosenno-letnim spowodował, że wśród wielu pokutuje teza, że tak ciepła wiosna oznacza, że niechybnie lato będzie kiepskie i tu przywołują różne lata z historii. Taką narrację prowadzi między innymi znany negacjonistyczny serwis “NoTricksZone“. […]

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