Snow Forecast To Reach Florida, Mexico… This Decade’s November Snow Cover Highest On Record

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Observations surprise global warming alarmists as snow forecast to fall in Florida, this decade’s November snow cover hits record high, Arctic ice volume stabilizes, models having hard time with forecasts…

Yesterday Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell’s  Daily Update showed that December in the US and Canada will be starting on the unusually snowy side.

As the chart above shows, snow will reach all the way down across the Florida Panhandle to the Gulf of Mexico.

Growing snow cover

Also snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere has grown over the past decades. Data from Rutgers University show more November snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere over the recent decade than what we observed 30 – 40 years ago:

Plot: Rutgers University

In fact this decade has never seen so much November snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere since data recording began in the late 1960s.

The increasing late fall snow cover seems to contradict the alarmist claims of snowless winters due to global warming.

Arctic melting has stalled

Also Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye prepared the following Arctic sea ice volume chart for November 29, which shows late November sea ice volume has been trending upwards over the past 12 years:

Data source: DMI.

Currently Arctic sea ice is at the same level as the 2004-2013 mean, and so melting has stalled.

CFSv2 December forecast for Europe flips 4°C!

Meanwhile for Europe, Schneefan (Snow Fan) here shows how the CFSv2 model for Europe for December changed over 20 days by a whopping 4°C for parts of Eastern Europe.

On November 1, the model showed all of Europe would be at a balmy 2-3°C above normal (left). But then 20 days later, on November 21, it showed Eastern Europe 1 to 2°C below normal (right):

Source: CFSv2-Trend prognoses

Snow fan agrees with veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi comparing this year to the 2002/2003 and 2009/2010 winters. In Central Europe December 2009 started out mild, but the second half cooled substantially.  Latest forecasts show the same may be in the works for the coming December.

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10 responses to “Snow Forecast To Reach Florida, Mexico… This Decade’s November Snow Cover Highest On Record”

  1. rah

    Late Sunday afternoon I got the call. Regular driver that does the dedicated to run from Anderson, IN to N. Kansas City, MO called off at the last minute. Blizzard conditions along the route. I was thankful I had over 41,000 lb. (18,597 Kg) in the trailer. Gusty winds and rain in western Indiana and then rain through Illinois. Just west of the St. Louis area is where I ran into the heavy wind driven snow with near white out conditions at times. That went on for about 70 mi (112 km.) After that, though I had driven out of the snow the road conditions on I-70 were terrible. Flashing signs said “Travel beyond Columbia not advised. Seek Lodging.” I drove on. Passed at least 50 slide offs on the west bound side alone. Made it to my destination in 9 1/2 hours driving time which is only 1.25 hours more than it would take with ideal conditions. Driving in such conditions over 100s of miles takes stamina and really wears a guy out.

    This is what we on call drivers do during the winter a lot. When the regular drivers wimp out they call us and we try to get the freight through.

    1. Georg Thomas

      rah,

      Thank you for yet another wonderfully graphic account; and thanks for taking me through a blizzard on an exciting tour that lasted only 30 seconds for me. We still have daytime temperatures between 44 and 55 °F (7 – 13 °C) over here in my part of Germany. May the mild weather last.

      1. rah

        The thing about the load I was hauling is that it’s exhaust parts ultimately bound for the General Motors assembly plant in near by Fairfax, KS just north of Kansas City, KS. The Tenneco facility I deliver to has at least a dozen shuttles running back and forth from that plant every day. With just in time delivery a failure of just a couple shipments can result in a whole assembly line being shut down. I like to think that the dedicated drivers that call off of runs like that don’t think about the fact that if they don’t do it someone else is going to have to do it.

  2. Joe Bastardi

    Note, this was already forecasted in August, Direct quote from our Winter Outlook August 7

    “I could see freak snowfall events into South Texas and deep into Florida this year”.

    JFM In our opinion will be the heart of winter this year, all this is just a prelim, IN fact after this cold it should get milder 2-3 weeks, but such is typical in the kind of modoki el nino winter we have

    1. rah

      Joe, I can look at your forecasts and tell a week out which direction I’ll most likely be heading during the winter months. Yea, I know, it’s technically not winter, but it sure seems like it based on the weather I’ve been driving through.

      The other day you had a picture of a big pile up on I-80. Your so right about some of the drivers. The economy is booming and so there are a lot of new drivers on the road. I have been lucky enough to never have been involved in something like that, though a couple times I’m certain that the only way I avoided disaster was because the ultimate driver took control and got me through it.

  3. Mark Green

    Id suggest caution in forecasting cold for Europe…..there is some probability you’d be correct, but also probability you wouldn’t be.
    Nothing in the medium range models gives any certainty right now, some days northern blocking is forecast for 10 days out, and the next run removes it….
    All we really know is the atlantic is dominating our weather now, and is the default scenario.
    I wouldnt suggest certainty on cold until models get consistant down to the 7 day timeframe at least.

    I do however think conditions are right for cold, and its better the models reflect the plausibility by flip flopping in the manner that they are.

    However i wouldnt choose one model run and use that as evidence….we need much more consistancy….

    1. rah

      Joe has been making fun of the US model and it’s wild swings for the last couple weeks.

  4. Previsione di nevicate stanno per raggiungere la Florida, fino al Golfo del Messico... La neve di questo decennio è la più alta mai registrata : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Fonte: No Tricks Zone […]

  5. Colin MacDonald

    Warmists will likely attribute major snow events to AGW, their readoning being that higher temperatures equals more moisture equals more snow. You could certainly make this argument for regions which normally experience sub zero temperatures, and if Winnipeg for instance gets 5metres of snow in December it’s a plausible argument. This argument completely fails when it comes to NH snow cover area, which is unaffected by the volume of snow in Artic regions. The area can only expand if the periphery is colder, otherwize all that extra moisture just produces rain in the areas with intermittent snow cover.
    In any case warming air will only produce more rain or snow if you cool the air below the dewpoint. I might be equally simplistic and argue that because warm air can hold more water vapour it is likely to produce rain! In fact you’ll only get more rainfall by boiling the oceans more quickly and for that you have to raise SSTs, a much slower process than warming the atmosphere given the far higher thermal mass of the former.

  6. Colin MacDonald

    Meant to see higher temperatures would priduce LESS rain!

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