Japan Says ‘Sayōnara’ To Warming… Unadjusted Data Show No Signs Of Any Significant Warming At All

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By Kirye

Data have been showing that Japan has been seeing a warming hiatus going back 20 years, and at many locations, even 30 years. This is the case when using the unadjusted data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

The meteorological autumn has ended and we can plot a sampling of the latest mean November and autumn temperatures for my island country of Japan. The following chart shows the temperature anomaly for November mean temperature for the past 16 years, a period that Dr. Kevin Trenberth says is long enough to start talking about a trend:

Data source: JMA

The mean temperature for autumn (Sep-Oct-Nov) in Japan over the past 21 years is also showing a modest downward trend:

Data: JMA

In the northern city of Sapporo in the Hokkaido Prefecture, the November mean temperature has shown no trend in 31 years:

Sapporo (Hokkaido Prefecture) Data: JMA.

My home city of Tokyo also has not seen any warming for November over the past 30 years, despite media always declaring that the planet is warming more rapidly. The following data show a flat trend:

 Tokyo mean November temperature have been flat for more than 30 years. Data: JMA.

Going all the way to other, southern end of Japan, in the tropics, we also find no warming – but instead some cooling for the November mean temperature:

Data: here.

By now some warmist readers may be asking to see the mean annual temperature trend for all of Japan over the past 2 decades, which I present to you here:

Data source JMA.

The above chart shows only a very modest warming since 1997, a period where the public has been only hearing and seeing headlines of rapid warming. But as the trend shows, the warming is statistically negligible, and is likely due to the natural natural El Nino event of 2016.

To summarize, Japanese citizens can say ‘sayonara’ to all the scary warming they were told to worry about over the past 2 decades. Nothing unusual has happened, or is happening.

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28 responses to “Japan Says ‘Sayōnara’ To Warming… Unadjusted Data Show No Signs Of Any Significant Warming At All”

  1. David Guy-Johnson

    Cue Sebastien saying “but Japan isn’t the world” But no one is saying it is Seb. Who knew global warming could be selective 😉

    1. leitmotif

      Sebastien? Ah so!

    2. SebastianH

      A link to the official JMA website should suffice:
      http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/temp/aut_jpn.html

      The presentation here amounts to cherry picking in an overall warming trend.

      1. richard verney

        On the chart that you link, it is interesting to note that 1960 is the warmest year (with a plus 1 deg C anomaly). So after almost 60 years and ever rising levels of CO2, Japan is only as warm as it was in 1960.

        1. SebastianH

          Thank you for just proving that you have no idea what a trend is. Would you say it didn’t cool since summer when you experience a particular warm day in December that reaches the same temperature as a cold day in summer?

        2. Kenneth Richard

          And the 1960 CO2 level was ~320 ppm. +90 ppm later…

        3. Yonason

          @richard verney

          Yeah, rich, get with the warmist program. Swallow the KookAid, and believe in the “trend.”
          https://www.c3headlines.com/2015/07/climate-fraud-nasas-recent-global-warming-corrections-equal-a-950c-per-century-trend.html

          Would a warmist troll lie? 😉

          Note the final sentence in that article, with which I highly concur…

          ‘Never trust, only verify’ should be the new motto for the public to take to heart.”

          1. rah

            If the press would actually adhere to the last statement our troubles would be over for the most part as the whole scam collapsed. But if that happened this blog and a bunch of others would be kind of redundant.

  2. Patrick Collins

    Is it just me or are plots #1,2,3, & 5 missing? I’ve viewed this on IE and Firefox and don’t see them.

  3. Ozonebust

    The recorded warming over the past 30 years is primarily in the high NH latitudes. This is directly attributed to the transport of ocean evaporation from lower latitudes. It is not rocket science.
    My thanks to Kirye for these informative and valuable updates.
    Regards

  4. Yonason

    RE – “…the mean annual temperature trend for all of Japan over the past 2 decades”

    Even the tiny appearance of warming in that data might disappear if the UHI effect were removed from the data.** But I prefer it not. I no longer trust them with any data tampering, even if it might be legitimate.

    **(topic dealt with in a previous post)
    http://notrickszone.com/2018/08/01/thermal-imaging-shows-japans-recent-record-high-temp-an-artefact-of-the-urban-heat-sinks/

    1. SebastianH

      Even the tiny appearance of warming in that data might disappear if the UHI effect were removed from the data.** But I prefer it not. I no longer trust them with any data tampering, even if it might be legitimate.

      **(topic dealt with in a previous post)
      http://notrickszone.com/2018/08/01/thermal-imaging-shows-japans-recent-record-high-temp-an-artefact-of-the-urban-heat-sinks/

      Wait what? Someone presents a temperature graph of a major city not warming significantly in a specific time frame and you come around and claim all warming on the UHI effect? Apparently the UHI effect doesn’t cause warming in Tokio, how come?

      And then of course the final nail in the coffin, evading towards data tampering, fake, hoax, whatever if it doesn’t fit what you feel should be happening. This is kind of crazy, Yonason 😉

      1. Yonason

        How is NTZ like San Francisco?

        The troll is back, and so is the troll-poo.

      2. Yonason

        I know that SebH is reality challenged, so I’ll try to spell it out for him (like that’ll help).

        He writes. Someone presents a temperature graph of a major city not warming significantly in a specific time frame and you come around and claim all warming on the UHI effect?”

        1. – It’s not “someone.” It’s the JMA data.

        2, – It’s not “a graph of a major city” but as I wrote in my topic first sentence? “RE – “…the mean annual temperature trend FOR ALL OF JAPAN over the past 2 decades””

        3. – The claim was not that UHI is causing “all warming” but that it is skewing the data upward. That’s what “might disappear” means when referring to what might be a tiny warming trend, if UHI were able to be removed. Not “would disappear.”

        If you don’t write something SebH can criticize, don’t worry – he’ll just make something up and criticize that. And he wants us to think he isn’t a troll – hahahaha!

        1. Kenneth Richard

          If you don’t write something SebH can criticize, don’t worry – he’ll just make something up and criticize that.

          True, that. And the sad part is, he knows exactly what he’s doing when he makes stuff up that we never wrote.

  5. rah

    Does Japan have an equivalent to the Rutgers Snow Lab?

    1. Kirye

      That does not exist, but the JMA measure also snow and rain.⛄ ☔

      1. rah

        Thank you.

  6. Lyle McCormick

    As our Earth turns on it’s axis (counter clock wise, I think) rotating between 19 and 23 degrees the weather patterns change every few hours and often daily. Over a 10,000 year period there is definately a pattern. At some point there will be snow in Miami, Florida. The only thing that disrupts this cycle are natural events like an earthquake, hurricane, maybe a major fire or flood.

    I believe the earth is in a warming trend. I also believe humans are helping to increase this warming through pollution. But the real reason for an increasing warming trend is the 10,000 year period which is repeated over and over every 10,000 years

    1. SebastianH

      You are inconsistent with the rest of your fellow skeptics and forgot about volcanoes. Your fellow skeptics claim that we are now on a cooling trend path, that 10000 year cycle of yours didn’t last very long then. Your fellow skeptics also claim that the current temperatures aren’t even as high as in the MWP, a phase just a few hundreds of years back. Was that the 10000 year cycle as well?

      It’s CO2 that is causing the general warming of this planet expressed in an ever increasing heat content.

      1. Kenneth Richard

        It’s CO2 that is causing the general warming of this planet expressed in an ever increasing heat content

        So why is it that the heat content was so much higher (almost +3 degrees C in temperature) when the CO2 was much lower (~260 ppm): http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Holocene-CO2-and-Pacific-Ocean-Heat-Content-Rosenthal-2013.jpg

        And considering the ocean heat content has changed by a minuscule 0.02 K since the mid-1990s, and that more land area is above sea level today than during the 1980s, where is the evidence for an anthropogenic influence on the heat content of the planet when considering the long-term context of the Holocene?

        1. SebastianH

          So why is it that the heat content was so much higher (almost +3 degrees C in temperature) when the CO2 was much lower (~260 ppm): http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Holocene-CO2-and-Pacific-Ocean-Heat-Content-Rosenthal-2013.jpg

          1) are you again implying that if more CO2 would case OHC to increase now that there surely must have been more CO2 when the OHC was higher than today in Earths history?

          And considering the ocean heat content has changed by a minuscule 0.02 K since the mid-1990s

          Is that the same scale as the one Rosenthal uses? Well, for the sake of the argument let’s assume it is. So, 0.02 K in 30 years. 0.2 K in 300 years, 2 K in 3000 years. 4 K in 6000 years. Continuing on that path will increase the heat content towards what Rosenthal claims that is has been in the distant past. Why is that minuscule again?

          Perhaps you mean the rather fast current increase is only a fluke? Natural variation in a general downtrend. Why don’t you re-read that 2018 Rosenthal paper then and try to understand what it says about the connection between surface temperatures and heat content? You like graph C in figure 2, what about graph A and B? What do you see?

          where is the evidence for an anthropogenic influence on the heat content of the planet when considering the long-term context of the Holocene?

          Are you waiting for an upward spike in those kinds of heat content graphs that span 10000 years? A heat content hockey stick if you will?

          1. Kenneth Richard

            1) are you again implying that if more CO2 would case OHC to increase now that there surely must have been more CO2 when the OHC was higher than today in Earths history?

            No, I am implying that since the models that claim rising CO2 concentration is and has been a primary determinant of OHC increases, this claim is undermined by the extensive paleoclimate evidence for the past 10,000 years that show the OHC (and SSTs and land surface temperatures) were all much higher when CO2 concentrations were much lower — the opposite of what the climate models say should have happened.

            So, 0.02 K in 30 years. 0.2 K in 300 years, 2 K in 3000 years. … Continuing on that path will increase the heat content towards what Rosenthal claims

            According to Rosenthal et al. (2013), the OHC dropped by -0.9 C between 1000 AD and 1600 AD (the MWP to the LIA). (Actually, it looks more like a -1.3 C drop between 1000 AD and 1700 AD, but -0.9 C is what the abstract says.) That’s a rate change of -0.015 C per decade for a 600-year trend. Comparing a 30-year period (or a 20-year period in this case) to a 600-year period, and still having the 600-year trend exceed the rate of change in the 20/30-year trend…does not support your contentions that modern OHC changes are alarming or unusual. Here’s what they look like relative to the last few centuries/millennia. Scary?

            Perhaps you mean the rather fast current increase is only a fluke?

            There’s nothing “fluke” or even unusual about the current changes….

            https://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/rosenthal-2013-figure-2c-annotated.png

    2. Steve

      Lyle ,what sort of pollution are you talking about?

  7. Penelope

    Lyle, you say “But the real reason for an increasing warming trend is the 10,000 year period which is repeated over and over every 10,000 years”

    I’m sorry, but this is just a notion on your part, and is contradicted by the facts as we know them:

    For the past million years Ice Ages have occurred roughly every 100,000 years. Roughly, not exactly. And earlier still, Ice Ages are thought to have occurred at less than half that periodicity.

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