Analysis Of 23 Top Quality US Surface Stations Shows Insignificant Warming…Only 0.16°C Rise – Per Century!

Temperature Trends at First Class US Stations
By Ron Clutz

In a previous study of World Class station records, the effects of urban development could not be discounted since the 25 long service records come from European cities.  This is a study to see what the best sites in the US can tell us about temperature trends in the last century.

There are two principal findings below.

Stevenson_screen public domainSurfacestations.org provides a list of 23 stations that have the CRN#1 rating for the quality of the sites. I obtained the records from the latest GHCNv3 monthly qcu report, did my own data quality review, and built a Temperature Trend Analysis (TTA) workbook.

Photo: Public domain

Spread out across the USA

As it happens, the stations are spread out across the continental US (CONUS). NW: Oregon, North Dakota, Montana; SW: California, Nevada, Colorado, Texas; MW: Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana; NE: New York, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania; SE: Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida.

The records themselves vary in quality of coverage, but have all been included here because of their CRN#1 rating. The gold medal goes to Savannah for 100% monthly coverage, with a single missing daily observation since 1874.

Pensacola was a close second among the four stations with perfect monthly coverage. Most stations were missing less than 20 months with coverages above 95%.

Area  FIRST CLASS US STATIONS
History 1874 to 2013
Stations 23
Average Length 118 Years
Average Trend 0.16 °C/Century
Standard Deviation 0.66 °C/Century
Max Trend 1.18 °C/Century
Min Trend -1.93 °C/Century

Only 0.16°C rise per century

The average station shows a rise of about 0.16°C/century. The large deviation, and the fact that multiple stations had cooling rates, shows that warming has not been extreme, and varies considerably from place to place. The observed warming for this group is less than half the rate reported in the European study.

Temperature trends are local, not global

Most remarkable about these stations is the extensive local climate diversity that appears when station sites are relatively free of urban heat sources. 35% (8 of 23) of the stations reported cooling over the century. Indeed, if we remove the 8 warmest records, the rate flips from +0.16°C to -0.14°C.

And the multidecadal patterns of warming and cooling were quite variable from place to place. Averages over 30-year periods suggest how unusual these patterns are.

For the set of 23 stations the results are:

°C/Century Start End
+0.78 Start 1920
- 1.21 1921 1950
-1.11 1951 1980
+1.51 1981 2013
+0.99 1950 2013

The first period varied in length from each station’s beginning to 1920. Surprisingly the second period cooled in spite of the 1930s. Warming appears mostly since 1980.  As mentioned above, within these averages are many differing local patterns.

Conclusion:

Question: Is it warmer now than 100 years ago?
Answer: It depends upon where you live. The best observations from US stations show a barely noticeable average warming of 0.16°C/century. And 35% of stations showed cooling at the same time that others were warming more than the average.

Note about data quality.

Available is my workbook for Truman Dam & Reservoir as an example of my data quality review method.  There are sheets showing the incoming qcu values, removal of flags and errors, audit of outliers (values exceeding 2 St. Dev.) and CUSUM and 1st differences analyses to test for systemic bias. Note that Truman missed out entirely on warming from 1956 to 2002, in contrast to the conventional notion of global warming from the 1970s to 2000.

Truman Dam & Reservoir also provides a cautionary tale about temperature analysis.  The station’s annual averages appear to rise dramatically from 2003 to present. On closer inspection, that period is missing values for 6 Decembers, 8 Januarys and 5 Februarys. So the annual warming is mostly the result of missing data-points.

This shows why analyzing the temperatures themselves can be misleading. By relying only on the station’s monthly slopes, TTA analysis effectively places missing values on the trend line of the existing values.

Note about Fall et al. (2011).

This was the first study to use CRN 1 to 5 ratings to look at US temperature trends in relation to station siting quality. Much discussed at the time was the finding of CRN 1&2 showing warming of 0.155°C/decade for the period 1979 to 2008. The comparable finding from this analysis is 0.151°C/decade for CRN 1 stations.

Little noticed was Figure 10 on page 10 of Fall et al. That graph shows that CRN 1&2 rate of warming Tavg unadjusted was about 0.2°C/century for the period 1895 to 2008.  This analysis shows a comparable 0.16°C for CRN 1 for the same period up to 2013.

 

EU Enviro-Totalitarians Impose Restrictions On Woodstoves…Vacuum Cleaners Limited To 900 Watts In 2017!

Green totalitarian encroachment into people’s private lives in Europe is moving rapidly. Already this fall new measures aimed at private households go into effect.

“Seasonal ban on wood burning stoves thinkable”

First, soon humans will have to say good bye to one of their oldest friends: an open fire. Germany’s version of the EPA, the Umweltbundesamt (UBA), is moving the strictly regulate emissions of fine particulates from wood burning stoves and fireplaces.

UBA President Maria Krautzberger on Tuesday announced that she plans to implement stricter limits for fine particulate emissions in 2015, even going so far as to announce: “Theoretically a seasonal ban on wood stoves is thinkable.”

BildThe dark lines show fine particulate emissions by traffic, the greenish lines show emissions for different types of burning wood in kilotonnes annually. (Source: UBA)

Ms. Krautzberger insists the measures are necessary because: “The health burdens on the citizens from fine particulates and NO2 are too great.” The UBA report states that “Fine particulates can cause inflammation of the respiratory system and increase the risk of heart attacks.”

Absolute rubbish. We are talking about banning a fundamental pleasure in exchange for a health improvement that is statistically imperceptible.

I’ve been living in Germany over 20 years and I can tell anyone that the air even in urban areas in Germany is pretty darn clean by any standard. This is needless government oppression and a restriction of a fundamental pleasure that humans have enjoyed for a hundreds of thousands of years: the direct warmth of an open fire. Green wackoism is out of control.

Vacuum cleaners limited to 1600 watts
Only 900 watts allowed in 2017

Secondly, if that weren’t intrusion enough, the EU is going after vacuum cleaners. They aren’t energy-efficient enough, they say, and they are simply wasting energy.

Along with a number of media outlets, the online derfflinger.de is reporting that if you want to buy a higher-powered vacuum cleaner, you’d better hurry up.

Beginning September 2014 a new EU Ecodesign Directive goes into effect. In the future it will need to don the EU Energy label and fulfill more stringent minimum requirements with regards to energy efficiency. The practical household appliance will be throttled down and allowed to have a maximum rated power of 1600 Watts. Beginning September 2017 only 900 watts will be allowed.”

Get ready to be sucking and licking the floor yourself shortly thereafter.

Critics have blasted the new regulation, noting that people will end up spending more time doing the chore will a small appliance to get the same result, and thus save little energy in total, if any at all.

Recall that electricity is product that humans purchase and then own, and thus they alone should decide how to use the product. Not so in Europe. Not only are European citizens being forced to pay an exorbitant price for their electricity today, but they are also being told how, when and how much to use – and for what.

The right of ownership and private property is rapidly being eroded.

 

Shock! Leading Climate Institute Just Discovers That Ice Age Climate Behaves Differently Than Today’s!

Germany’s once prestigious Alfred Wegener Institute has just issued a stunning press release informing the whole world about a new ground-breaking study showing that we do not need to expect the same climate change today that the earth saw during the last ICE AGE – because, you see, the pre-conditions back then were different.

Really! You don’t say! Gee, who would have ever thunk it. How much money was spent to find out that piece of what has long been obvious to everyone else?

And they wonder why our respect for their multi-billion dollar field, where 97% of their models have been dead wrong, has all but vanished.

AWI climate scientist Gerrit Lohmann summarizes:

There are apparently some situations in which the climate system is more resistant to change while in others the system tends toward strong fluctuations. In terms of the Earth’s history, we are currently in one of the climate system’s more stable phases. The preconditions which gave rise to rapid temperature changes during the last ice age do not exist today.”

Here is the entire press release:
——————————————

Has the puzzle of rapid climate change in the last ice age been solved? New report published in Nature shows that small variations in the climate system can result in dramatic temperature changes

Bremerhaven, Germany, August 19th, 2014.  Over the past one hundred thousand years cold temperatures largely prevailed over the planet in what is known as the last ice age. However, the cold period was repeatedly interrupted by much warmer climate conditions. Scientists have long attempted to find out why these drastic temperature jumps of up to ten degrees took place in the far northern latitudes within just a few decades. Now, for the first time, a group of researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), have been able to reconstruct these climate changes during the last ice age using a series of model simulations. The surprising finding is that minor variations in the ice sheet size can be sufficient to trigger abrupt climate changes. The new study was published online in the scientific journal Nature last week and will be appearing in the 21 August print issue.

During the last ice age a large part of North America was covered with a massive ice sheet up to 3km thick. The water stored in this ice sheet is part of the reason why the sea level was then about 120 meters lower than today. Young Chinese scientist Xu Zhang, lead author of the study who undertook his PhD at the Alfred Wegener Institute, explains. “The rapid climate changes known in the scientific world as Dansgaard-Oeschger events  were limited to a period of time from 110,000 to 23,000 years before present. The abrupt climate changes did not take place at the extreme low sea levels, corresponding to the time of maximum glaciation 20,000 years ago, nor at high sea levels such as those prevailing today – they occurred during periods of intermediate ice volume and intermediate sea levels.” The results presented by the AWI researchers can explain the history of climate changes during glacial periods, comparing simulated model data with that retrieved from ice cores and marine sediments.

How rapid temperature changes might have occurred during times when the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets were at intermediate sizes (see graphics below)

During the cold stadial periods of the last ice age, massive ice sheets covered northern parts of North America and Europe. Strong westerly winds drove the Arctic sea ice southward, even as far as the French coast.  Since the extended ice cover over the North Atlantic prevented the exchange of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean, the strong driving forces for the ocean currents that prevail today were lacking. Ocean circulation, which is a powerful “conveyor belt” in the world’s oceans, was thus much weaker than at present, and consequently transported less heat to northern regions.

During the extended cold phases the ice sheets continued to thicken. When higher ice sheets prevailed over North America, typical in periods of intermediate sea levels, the prevailing westerly winds split into two branches. The major wind field ran to the north of the so-called Laurentide Ice Sheet and ensured that the sea ice boundary off the European coast shifted to the north. Ice-free seas permit heat exchange to take place between the atmosphere and the ocean. At the same time, the southern branch of the northwesterly winds drove warmer water into the ice-free areas of the northeast Atlantic and thus amplified the transportation of heat to the north. The modified conditions stimulated enhanced circulation in the ocean. Consequently, a thicker Laurentide Ice Sheet over North America resulted in increased ocean circulation and therefore greater transportation of heat to the north. The climate in the Northern Hemisphere became dramatically warmer within a few decades until, due to the retreat of the glaciers over North America and the renewed change in wind conditions, it began to cool off again.

“Using the simulations performed with our climate model, we were able to demonstrate that the climate system can respond to small changes with abrupt climate swings,” explains Professor Gerrit Lohmann, leader of the Paleoclimate Dynamics group at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany. In doing so he illustrates the new study’s significance with regards to contemporary climate change. “At medium sea levels, powerful forces, such as the dramatic acceleration of polar ice cap melting, are not necessary to result in abrupt climate shifts and associated drastic temperature changes.”

At present, the extent of  Arctic sea ice is far less than during the last glacial period.  The Laurentide Ice Sheet, the major driving force for ocean circulation during the glacials, has also disappeared. Climate changes following the pattern of the last ice age are therefore not to be anticipated under today’s conditions.

“There are apparently some situations in which the climate system is more resistant to change while in others the system tends toward strong fluctuations,” summarises Gerrit Lohmann. “In terms of the Earth’s history, we are currently in one of the climate system’s more stable phases. The preconditions which gave rise to rapid temperature changes during the last ice age do not exist today. But this does not mean that sudden climate changes can be excluded in the future.”

Notes for Editors:

The original paper was published in Nature under the following title :

Xu Zhang, Gerrit Lohmann, Gregor Knorr, Conor Purcell:Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes. Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature13592

Your scientific contact persons at the Alfred Wegener Institute are:

Your contact person in the Dept. of Communications and Media Relations is Sina Löschke ( tel. +49 471 4831-2008; e-mail: medien@awi.de).

 

Panic Time! IPCC Climate Scientist Serves Up Litany Of Excuses For Warming Stop…Advocates Upward Temp Adjustments!

The online Swiss 20min.ch here reports on a new study just appearing in the latest Nature Geoscience, authored by devout warmist climate scientist Reto Knutti of the Zurich ETH.

Knutti’s study and the 20min.ch article are in a panicked scramble to explain why there hasn’t been any warming in more than 15 years, insisting that global warming has only paused and eventually will resume with renewed vigor – at time yet to be determined time in the future.

The title of the 20min.ch piece is: “Climate Warming Takes a Break“.

The 20min.ch introduction reads:

Climate warming continues, but it’s taking a break. The reasons for that, among others, are the temporary weak solar irradiance and phenomena such as La Niña.”

The tone of the 20min.ch article is one of shaking a finger at the incorrigible, irresponsible and manipulative climate skeptics and advising readers to not stop being afraid and to never ever believe those skeptics.

Litany of excuses

Citing Prof Knutti’s ETH, 20min.ch writes that “multiple possible reasons have been systematically investigated for the first time.”

The all new litany of excuses they present includes:
* aerosols (of course)
* La Niña
* weaker solar radiation
* low sunspot number
* volcano eruptions
* inadequate, unreliable temperature measurement methodology!

That’s right, all the factors that they stupidly refused to adequately incorporate in their models, despite being told time and again by skeptics not to neglect them. Now they are FINALLY telling us there’s indeed a Mai Tai cocktail of natural reasons for the absence of warming.

Antsy warmists

Their panic is truly palpable, at least in Switzerland. Knutti and his fellow warmists are so antsy about rescuing their warming that he is now actively hinting at making up temperature data. The 20min.ch writes that according to Knutti, satellites “do not deliver any data on especially high upward spikes. As a result the average temperature has been under-stated.”

To me that is a clear statement advocating adjusting the data upwards. He talks about the lack of Arctic stations and hints at “filling in” where data do not exist…i.e. making them up. And speaking of the temporary cooling impacts, Knutti insists:

They don’t change anything when it comes to the longer term climate warming due to the greenhouse gas emissions.”

All sounds like a religion desperately clinging to doctrine.

How much longer must we wait?

So just how much longer are we supposed to wait before these “temporary, short-term”  climate factors go away? 2 years? 5 years? 20 years? A couple of generations?

Gradually, but with increasing acceleration, scientists in lots of other fields are beginning to see this type of sorrowful climate science as a monumental laughing stock.

They can adjust upwards and fill in all they want, but it is not going to keep the sea ice from setting new all-time record highs and frosts and snows from blanketing us in the wintertime, or in August. Eventually it’s all going to collapse and the only place global warming will continue existing will be at the nuthouse.

 

Spiegel: Numerous Animals Suffering “Excruciating Deaths” Each Year By The Rotor Blades Of Wind Turbines

Germany’s online Spiegel magazine published a story on how German wind parks are responsible for killing “numerous bats” each and every year – and not only domestic bats, but also migrating birds that are passing through.

According to scientists of the Berlin-based Leibniz-Institute for Zoological and Wildlife Research  (IZW):

Also animals from northeast Europe are killed by the rotor blades when they migrate through Germany on their way to their wintering grounds in November.”

Spiegel writes that more than a quarter (28 percent) of the animals examined came from an area spanning from the Baltic region to Russia, Belarus to Poland and were on their way to Central and Southern Europe. Most of the victims were young and female, which will impact future populations, scientists warn.

Studies show that the number of bats and wildlife killed by German windparks annually could be in the 6-digit range.

 

Charismatic Meteorologist Kachelmann Expresses Skepticism Over Weather Alarmism, Slams Seasonal Forecasting

In the German speaking part of Europe there is hardly a person who doesn’t know the name of Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann.

Kachelmann

Jörg Kachelmann. Image cropped from here.

The famous German flagship public television meteorologist became even more famous when in 2009 he was held by German authorities for 132 days long on charges of rape. Kachelmann was eventually cleared of the charges in what later was determined to be a case of the fury of a woman’s scorn and Kachelmann becoming the unfortunate victim of an overzealous media feeding frenzy and betrayal.

But that was five years ago and in the meantime the entrepreneurial meteorologist has put the pieces back together and once again is becoming an increasingly public figure who likes to present himself as a folksy, non-nonsense sort of meteorologist. See his sites here and here.

Refuses to state his position on climate change science

As Kachelmann is a high-profile meteorologist who holds impressive practical knowledge and experience, many followers of the climate debate are naturally wondering where he stands on man-made global warming. Unfortunately he has steadfastly avoided that hornet’s nest.

However recently he gave an interview with the online MünsterscheZeitung – MZ – (Munster News). In the interview the online daily asked Kachelmann about all the rain and thunderstorms Germany had been seeing this summer, trying to prod him to blame it on climate change. But Kachelmann didn’t take the bait. Again he dodged direct questions about the climate debate.

“Usual boring climate question”

Yet, reading his replies in the interview, one sees some pretty clear signals on where he stands. For example Kachelmann plays down the MZ’s claim that this kind of weather “has never been seen before“, and if Germany should start getting used to more tropical-like rains in the future. Kachelmann responds:

That’s the usual boring climate question. Are we all going to die? I don’t know enough about it and don’t have an answer for this. Here you’ll have to ask the usual climate scientists. And depending on who you ask, you’ll get the answer. I’m a forecaster and I deal deal with 5 to 15 days maximum. And that’s it.”

The climate question has become boring, and it depends on who you ask on whether or not we are going to die. Sounds like Kachelmann thinks there’s consensus on the question.

Tornadoes in Germany not as rare as you think

When prodded by the MZ to acknowledge that a recent tornado touching down in Germany is really weird, Kachelmann here too refuses to play along, saying that tornadoes are “not as seldom as one thinks“:

Every year there are a few. They are not always seen, as there isn’t always someone there to record it with his mobile phone. But the weather situation on Sunday was clear: There was the possibility of tornadoes.”

Gradually we get the picture that Kachelmann doesn’t think much of the climate alarmism that gets attached to single extreme weather events.

Long-term seasonal forecasts – “moronic meteorology”

When it comes to long-term (seasonal) weather forecasting, Kachelmann goes on the offensive calling such forecasts “Vollpfostenmeteorologie” which I would translate as something like “moronic meteorology”. In short he regards these forecasts as something from morons. He characterizes seasonal forecasting:

It’s not serious to say in the springtime what the summer will be like. That’s moronic meteorology.”

Here Kachelmann recognizes the huge complexity, and thus the uncertainty that weather involves. Surely he must harbor the same when it comes to making decadal or 100-year climate forecasts for the globe.

Still, on seasonal forecasts I believe Kachelmann is being too harsh on his fellow meteorologists who do put out seasonal forecasts. Is it not a legitimate endeavor?

Many readers here know that Joe Bastardi, for example, makes a living in part by providing seasonal forecasts, and has proven to have a pretty darn good success rate.

Joe Bastardi has a different view of long-term forecasting

Kachelmann’s dismissal of these longer term forecasts prompted me to get Joe’s opinion on the subject. He sent me a reply by e-mail. Here’s what he wrote – speaking in general terms and not addressing anyone in particular. Joe writes:

Judge a tree by the fruit on it.

Here are the facts. I make a living doing this. People pay me to be right, not wrong. Given the amount of private and public competition out there, why would you pay me if I am wrong, not adding value. Those that can’t do, or won’t do, tend to trash those that do. I have a very happy and increasing client base and in the world of competition, people don’t pay money for losers for very long. We let our forecasts do the talking.

I admit when I am wrong. Usually though it corrects me for the next battle (example last year’s hurricane season showed us hemispheric was similar to 17-18 which we added to the winter analog in the states.

However I am well aware of being too cold in Europe last year, after nailing the previous 3 years. We have already used that to help us with this year, which our clients see. Now if I am wrong again, they will get antsy, but they are ahead of the game.. way head in Europe, cause of things before.

In the states. this streak can not get any better. But remember this is the 3rd of 3 winters (granted 12-13 started late) that I opined would be cold back in 2011. Given 16 hours a day looking at weather and not having a day off, the only thing I can say is perhaps I am just lucky.

You be the judge.”

Joe exudes confidence in his seasonal forecasting methods. Looks like he’s found the right tools.

 

2008 Paper Demolished “Forest Die-Off” Scare: “None Of The Apocalyptic Prophecies Of That Time Fulfilled”

If you’re wondering about the long-term future of the climate doomsday scare, what follows is a clue.

A reader brought my attention to a 2008 paper by Horeis that completely demolished the forest die-off scare of the 1980s.

Horeis_Waldsterben
Here’s an excerpt from the abstract shown above (my emphasis), in case it’s difficult to read:

The starting point were local damages to certain tree species which scientists, journalists and politicians eagerly interpreted as a global threat to all forests. Man-made emissions were seen as the cause of the Waldsterben which was expected to thoroughly deforest the country within a few years. However, none of the apocalyptic prophecies of that time fulfilled. Seen in retrospect, Waldsterben spared the trees. It only seized the minds of the people.”

Expect the same in a couple decades time for the current global warming scare…

 

“Urban Heat Island” Effect Appears To Be Far More Pronounced In Polar Regions Than You Might Think!

+++++

Polar Islands Of Heat

By Ed Caryl

I would like to thank “John”, a commenter on my article on why the Antarctic sea ice is expanding, for inspiring this article. Other writers and researchers have noticed that temperature measurements in the polar regions are influenced by nearby heat sources, even the body heat of the person doing the measurement.

In 1907, William John Gordon wrote Round About The North Pole, describing the various expeditions that had taken place up until that time. One expedition described was that of Umberto Cagni’s expedition in 1900. (H/t Bill Strouss in a comment on WUWT here.)

Here is an excerpt from that book, the bottom of page 77 and the top of page 78.

Ed_1

Figure 1 is an excerpt from William John Gordon’s Round About The North Pole, written in 1907. Note the increasing impact on temperature measurements with the approach of the human body with decreasing temperature.

Every object that is warmer than the surroundings emits infrared that heats cooler objects in the vicinity. The more objects there are that are warm, and the closer they are, the greater the heating. This applies also to thermometers. Are weather stations in the polar regions subject to temperature errors due to nearby heated structures? This notion has been studied for only a few locations. The village of Barrow on the Arctic Ocean coast in Alaska has been studied. The heat island there can reach as much as five or six degrees C in winter when the temperature is between -30°C and -40°C and the wind is calm.

Studies like this require the installation of recording thermometers inside the study area and outside in nearby rural areas. Long-term studies are done using existing weather stations that are close by. One long term study was done using the records from Fairbanks, Alaska, and nearby Eielson Air Force Base. This study found a heat island exceeding 1°C in winter.

Comparison of 2 adjacent Antarctic weather stations

In the polar regions there are few weather station pairs suitable for heat island studies. In Antarctica, there is only one pair that can be used, Scott Base and McMurdo Station on Ross Island in the Ross Sea. These two stations are particularly useful, as they are very close together, less than 1.5 miles (2.3 kilometers) apart as the Skua flies (no crows in Antarctica), at the same altitude and latitude, separated by only a low ridge.

Ed_2

Figure 2 is from Wikimapia. McMurdo (left) and Scott Base (right) are at the southern tip of Ross Island. The red line is the distance between the temperature measuring instruments at the two bases.

If there is a heat island influence on temperature at McMurdo, there will be the following indicators:

  • McMurdo will be warmer than Scott Base in all seasons.
  • The annual temperature trend will be greater for McMurdo than for Scott Base.

Winter temperature differences will be greater than summer differences.

Ed_3

Figure 3 is a plot of the annual temperatures and trends for McMurdo and Scott Base.

At the beginning, after Scott Base was built in 1957, the temperature difference was about 2.5°C, with McMurdo the warmer. The trend for McMurdo is nearly twice that of Scott Base. In 2009, the last year where we have data from both stations, the difference was more than 3°C.

Both bases were built to support research in the International Geophysical Year, June 1957 to December 1958. McMurdo was always the larger base, built first to support logistics for the other Antarctic research stations in the area, as well as support for the South Pole station, Amundsen-Scott Station. Scott Base was built by New Zealand in 1957.

McMurdo was sized to support over a thousand people in the Austral Summer season and 150 to 200 people in the winter. Scott Base was sized to support 70 to 80 people in the summer and 10 to 15 people in the winter, 10% of the size of McMurdo.

McMurdo handles the logistics, fuel, sea-borne and airborne freight, personnel transport, and most of the electrical power for the two stations, though Scott Base does have its own generators in case the common electrical grid is disrupted. There is also a three-turbine wind farm with nearly 1 Megawatt peak output.

90% of the fuel used at both bases is AN8 aviation kerosene jet/diesel fuel. Most of the turbojet and prop jet aircraft, and all the diesel engines use AN8, including the icebreakers and the diesel generators, at both bases and the South Pole. AN8 is a special Arctic formulation with antifreeze added to reduce the gel point to -70°F (-57°C).

These stations use a LOT of fuel for heating and electrical power. McMurdo uses 19,000 liters per average day, about 12% more in winter and 30% less in summer. Scott Base uses 1300 liters per day in winter and 900 liters/day in summer. The fuel energy content for AN8 is about 10,000 watt-hours/liter. For both stations, this works out to about 55 watt-hours/square meter in winter and 37 watt-hours/square meter in summer.

But the area of warmer McMurdo is about 400 by 400 meters, or 160,000 square meters, and Scott Base is much smaller at about 50 by 200 meters, or 10,000 square meters, though much more irregular. Here is what the bases look like in winter (now).

Ed_4

Figure 4 is the McMurdo webcam image from Arrival Heights about 2 AM local time on August 13, 2014. Moonlight is just making the unlighted terrain faintly visible. Observation Hill is left of center beyond the base.

Ed_5

Figure 5 is of the “hitching rail” area (outlets for engine heaters) at the entrance of Scott Base, lighted by their one streetlight. This webcam view was taken at the same time as Figure 4.

Below in Figure 6 are the temperature differences between the warmer McMurdo and the cooler Scott Base by season. December through February is summer, March through May and June through August is winter, and September through November is “WinFly”. WinFly is also winter, as it stands for Winter Fly-in, the season when the early crews arrive to begin preparations for the summer work season.

Ed_6

Figure 6 is the temperature difference between McMurdo and Scott Base by quarters. McMurdo is the warmer by 3.5°C in June, July, and August, 3°C in the rest of winter, and around 2°C in summer.

For all seasons, the trend is warming. The WinFly season is warming the most.

McMurdo is warmer in winter by 3 to 3.5°C because of the high-energy use to heat and power the base, and because that heat is over a larger area than Scott Base by a factor of 16. There is also another reason: the siting of the measuring instruments. This is Building 165, the location of “MacWeather”, the weather monitoring and forecasting office, as well as the communications and operations center for the McMurdo base.

Ed_6a6b

Figures 6a and 6b are Building 165 at McMurdo. Figure 6b is a close-up on the weather instruments. Note the stovepipe very close by.

Building 165 is near the center of the base, next door to the Crary Science Center.

Ed_7

Figure 7 is a labeled satellite view from Wikimapia of the center of McMurdo Station. The building outlined in red is building 165, the location of MacWeather. The weather instruments are on the roof at the right-hand corner of the building, closest to Crary Lab. In Figure 6a, you can see the corner of the Phase 2 (middle) section of the lab building.

In contrast to this very “urban” setting, the weather station and the weather instruments at Scott Base are much better sited.

Ed_8

Figure 8: Scott Base from the air. Photo Credit: Joe Harrigan/Antarctic Photo Library.

Figure 8 above is an overview of Scott Base. Most of the heat sources, the powerhouse, garage, dormitories, mess building, and the “ablutions” building, are on the right. The building on the left end of the complex is Hatherton Lab. Outside of this building, slightly up-slope and almost 100 meters away, is a Stevenson Screen – see detail below.

Figures 9 and 10 document the position of the Stevenson Screen at Scott Base:

Ed_9

Figure 9: The path to the Stevenson Screen (upper left corner). In order to safely reach it, and return to Hatherton Lab in winter white-out conditions, there is a guide rope strung alongside the path. Photo Credit: Joe Harrigan/Antarctic Photo Library.

Ed_10

Figure 10: Nita Smith is the lady in the photo. Three wind turbines are visible in the background on the ridge above the base. The picture was taken in early December 2011. Photo credit: Rebecca Priestly here.

The last monthly record in the GISS station data is June 2009. Ms. Smith would be deeply disappointed that her efforts were in vain. GISS is taking only the McMurdo data now and ignoring Scott Base. Why are we not surprised?

There is definitely a heat island at McMurdo Station. As we discussed at the top of this article:

    • McMurdo is warmer than Scott Base in all seasons by 2°C in summer to nearly 4°C in winter.
    • The annual temperature trend is greater for McMurdo than for Scott Base by 86%.
    • Winter temperature differences are greater than summer differences by 1 to 1.5°C.

 

Berlin Orchestra Now Donning Rubber Boots To Elevate Awareness Of Dangerous Climate Change

The seemingly climate doomsday-obsessed Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) tweeted a link to the Berlin Staatsoper (Berlin State Opera), which is announcing a benefit concert dubbed “Science Meets Music“, slated for 30 August 2014. The proceeds raised will go to the NaturTon Foundation.

I just had to laugh at the new elitist level of climate activism the Potsdam Institute scientists have stooped to. The benefit concert’s announcement has a photo of some orchestra members donning rubber boots – I guess for protection against the one-meter sea level rise Rahmstorf predicts is coming to Berlin. This is classic Potsdam Institute activism at its best.

The Berlin Staatsoper announcement as follows in English:

==========================================

Science Meets Music Benefit Concert

Proceeds to go to NaturTon

Climate scientists together with musicians are organizing a concert at an unusual location, the Observatory of the Potsdam Telegrafenberg. The proceeds of this concert will go to the violin and bow makers as well as the members of the Berliner Staatskapelle-founded Verein Eben!holz e.V., who are committed to the rescue of rosewood and ebony for use in the building of musical instruments. In the Makira Natural Park in Madagascar over 30 different domestic tree species will be planted on 100 hectares of of destroyed forest so that the connection to several tracts of forests will be re-eatsblished. By involving the local residents in the work and through information and festivals, the awareness for the value of the forest will be awakened as well as the sustainable use of wood creating additional sources of income for the people.”

Tickets go for 55 euros (75 dollars) and even include a presentation by the doomsday-purveying PIK titled: “The Forest and the Climate”, which I’m sure will be nothing but goods new and optimism (sarc-off).

Concerning Madagascar, it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Perhaps if the people there had reliable, affordable electric power and infrastructure, and thus the modern jobs such things tend bring with them, they would leave the trees alone.  Cure the poverty, and you’ll cure the environmental ills.

 

Swedish MP Declares “Climate Science Has Gone Awry…Resembles a Religion…Anything But Scientific”!

UPDATE: I’ve been getting e-mails, especially from skeptic Swedes, who warn of citing people like Fransson…saying that the origins of the SD and some of the planks in its political platform are questionable, and that in doing so it is damaging the skeptic position rather than helping it. Myself I’m not familiar with Swedish politics and posted the story solely on the merits of the science.

NTZ does not necessarily support or endorse the political positions of any persons featured here, and in all cases detests all extremist views. -PG

==============================

First there was sea level rise expert Nils-Axel Mörner, then top Swedish climatologist Lennart Bengtsson breaking ranks with the IPCC.

Now the Swedish online nyheter24 here has a commentary by Parliamentarian Josef Fransson (photo) of the Sweden Democrats (SD) party, who fires sharp criticism at IPCC climate science and the policymaking based on it.

fransson-riksdagsman-fc3b6r-sd

Photo: sdpartille.wordpress.com.

First, before looking at his commentary, Wikipedia describes the Fransson’s SD party as  a “far-right populist and anti-immigration party“. But readers need to keep in mind that nowadays in Europe anyone who challenges the IPCC, or expresses the need for governments to clean house of all their entrenched political cronies gets labeled a right-wing extremist…a hater. We see this smearing kind of treatment already with the UKIP party and Germany’s AfD. So don’t put much stock in Wikipedia’s biased political characterizations.

There’s just no tolerance for dissent any more.

Science gone awry

At the online nyheter24, Janssen comments that climate science resembles more a religion, noting that even the Swedish Church now devotes more time to activities on climate alarm than Christian preaching. He writes, “The climate debate in Sweden has gone awry and is anything but scientific.

CO2 a factor on the margins

Fransson writes: “We know a lot about the factors that have an impact on the climate, such as dust particles, cosmic rays, the Earth’s axis inclination, Earth’s distance from the Sun, on altered land use, changes in wind and ocean currents, etc., and to all this there’s also the vital greenhouse effect, which is due mainly to water vapor and water evaporation, cloud formation, and precipitation. On the margin there is carbon dioxide and methane.”

Janssen then reminds Parliamentarians that the climate is a system of great complexity, fraught with great variability and that “CO2′s role is overhyped“.

No correlation

He explains how CO2 poorly correlates with global temperature: “1910-1940 we had a rapid global temperature rise at around 0.5°C although the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were stable….Since that time greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise [...] but still we have not been able to see a temperature increase for almost 18 years.”

Fransson also labels projections of 4°C warming and a sea level rise of one meter by the end of the century as outliers, calling them “very improbable scenarios“.

Fransson explained how climate has always changed in the past and that 1000 year ago the Vikings had settled and farmed on Greenland, and that during the ice ages Sweden was buried under a “several kilometers thick glacier“. And now that the planet has been enjoying a warm optimum for the past 11,500 years, he reminds that in general “we are living on borrowed time“.

Wide uncertainty

Fransson also reports that “mapping the past climate is complicated detective work and the farther back in time one goes, the coarser the assumptions become“. He reminds us that even computing today’s mean global temperature with our vast network of measurement stations is a formidable task.

Then he compares the oceans to the atmosphere, saying that the oceans’ heat capacity is “1000 times larger” than that of the entire atmosphere, and thus can have profound impacts on future projections.

At the end Fransson writes higher CO2 concentration in the atmosphere so far “has been a blessing to our world. Carbon dioxide, which are all plant food, has made the world greener and increased crop yields“.

Politicians making “farcical” promises

Frannson calls the promises made by politicians in tiny Sweden to save the climate “farcical”, reminding that the sparasely populated Nordic country represents only 1/1000 of the globe’s CO2 emissions and that every year China increases its emissions an amount that is equivalent to the total annual emissions of 12 Swedens.

At the end, Fransson says it gets down to the needs of the poor: “After China there is a long list of countries in line to go from extreme poverty to more decent conditions.”

 

Snow and Frost Forecast For Central Europe Later This Week! Europe’s Early End To Summer?

Looks like summer will be ending early this year. Once again parts of Central Europe will be getting hit by cold temperatures, frost, and even snow at elevations down to 2500 meters – in the middle of the summertime!

Germany’s leading popular daily Bild here writes how ex-hurricane Bertha has ushered in cooler air across western and central Europe, putting an end to the summer weather.

Meteologist Domink Jung of wetternet.de told Bild that widespread across central Europe “it’s going to be getting cooler over the coming days. At night many places will see single digit temperatures. Foremost in northern Germany it is already autumn-like cool.“

Moreover Bild adds:

‘At some higher elevation valleys in the Alps of Switzerland and Austria there will also be surface frost,’ says weather expert Jung. On Friday and Saturday in may even snow down to elevations of 2500 meters.”

Last month, July, I reported on how a spell of snow hit in the Swiss Alps at elevations down to 6000 feet, flying in the face of claims by global warming alarmists that snow would be “a thing of the past” and that Europe’s wintertime ski industry would suffer shortages of snow. Now it’s snowing in the middle of summer!

So what can be said about the cool weather? Global warming obsessors will claim it’s just weather, and not climate…forgetting how just days ago they claimed a single severe thunderstorm was a sign of global warming.

 

German Update Points To Period Of Low Solar Activity, Cites “Non-Negligible Forcing On The Temperature”

The Sun In July 2014 And Arctic Sea In Mid Summer
By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Last month the sun was variably active: The first ten days of the month were eventful, whereas the middle of the month solar activity was very calm with the negative high point occurring on July 17, when zero sunspots were recorded at a time during the maximum. At the end of the month activity picked up again with mean sunspot number for the month was 72.5. Once again the most activity took place in the southern hemisphere. The numbers: 47.1 as opposed to 25.4 for the northern hemisphere. This is 73% of the activity that is usual for this month into the cycle.

Figure 1: Monthly sunspot number for the current Cycle 24 (red), which began in December 2008. In comparison to the mean value of previous cycles 1 – 23 (blue) and the similar Cycle 1.

For a comparison of all cycles, the anomalies of each cycle (i.e. the difference between the monthly SSN data and the mean value) are plotted in the next chart:

Figure  2: Accumulated monthly deviation from the mean for the observed cycles since 1750.

The diminishment of solar activity in the current millennium can be clearly seen. Between 1945 and the mid 1990s we witnessed a profoundly long protracted period of activity. This unusual development is confirmed by a recently published paper by Finnish scientist Ilya Usoskinvon of the University of Oulu appearing in Astronomy and Astrophysics (A&A Volume 562, February 2014). The paper shows that the height of solar activity from 1945 to 1995 was a rare event over the last 3000 years. Pronounced minima such as the Maunder Minimums (from 1645 to 1715) on the other hand are much more frequent.

Figure 3: Sunspot number reconstructed by Usoskin et al. (2014), from 1150 BC until 1950 AD. The red curve depicts the directly observed sunspot count since 1610.

A Chinese paper by the Center for Space Science and Applied Research der Chinese Academy of Sciences in Peking (ZHAO X H, FENG X S., Chin Sci Bull, Chin Ver., 2014, 59: 1284: “Periodicities of solar activity and the surface temperature variation of the Earth and their correlations”) goes a step further in its conclusion:

“During the past 100 years, solar activities display a clear increasing tendency that corresponds to the global warming of the Earth (including land and ocean) very well. Particularly, the ocean temperature has a slightly higher correlation to solar activity than the land temperature. All these demonstrate that solar activity has a non-negligible forcing on the temperature change of the Earth on the time scale of centuries.”

=============================

I will present Vahrenholt’s and Bosse’s second part on Arctic sea ice tomorrow! -PG

 

After False Reports of Sighting In Deep Oceans, Missing Heat Also Not Found In Europe!

Reader Ed Hoskins sent me the following temperature graphic for Central England by e-mail. I’d say the chart says it all…linear trend of more than 6°C COOLING per century. It’s worse than we thought!

Hoskins_UK Temp_trends

Bare ground in the winter will soon be a thing of the past!

Clearly temperatures have been sinking for the last 10 years. The “missing heat” is also nowhere to be found in England. The Central European trend is similar.

In fact, many places globally are showing a cooling trend over the last decade.

So when it comes to disproving warming, what more could they want!

References:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.dpuf
http://woodfortrees.org/plot:12

 

(Dumb) German Politicians Deem Defending Climate More Vital Than Defending Our Freedom/Values!

Now climate politics are becoming a real threat to the very defense of our freedom, democracy and western civilization.

Eurofighter

The real enemy, according to some German politicians, activists. Copyright: Eurofighter, Geoffrey Lee, Planefocus Limited.

Germany’s socialists, pacifist greens and anti NATO activists (who are well represented in German government) have found a new excuse for shirking their NATO defense responsibilities and reason for shutting down important military operations thus unwittingly playing into the hands of our enemies – many of whom are at Europe’s very own doorstep!

“Eurofighter Typhoon is a climate-killer”

Their latest claim: “the Eurofighter Typhoon is a climate killer” and so it needs to be grounded. Protecting the climate is much more important than defending the freedom and democracy of the very citizens they were elected to represent.

According to the doomsday-obsessed, leftist Klimaretter here: the Eurofighter’s CO2 footprint is intolerable and represents a real reason to stop its use. It writes: “For the climate the Eurofighters are real poison.”

Klimaretter explains how leftist Parliamentarian Eva Bulling-Schröter sent a query to the German government concerning the Eurofighter Typhoon of the 74th Neuburg Fighter Wing in Bavaria on July 16, 2014. The German government in turn sent its reply on July 31.

Of fourteen questions three are of particular interest: Nos. 3, 4, and 7.

3. How high was the fuel consumption (kerosene) of the Neuburg Fighter Wing in 2013?

In 2013 at the tactical 74th Neuburg a.d. Donau Fighter Wing, 12,751,000 liters of jet fuel were given out to the EUROFIGHTER. That is an equivalent of approximately 10,200 tonnes of jet fuel.

4. How high was the CO2 emission of the Neuburg Fighter Wing in 2013?

Based on the fuel consumption of then tactical 74th Neuburg a.d. Donau Fighter Wing in connection with the average conversion factor for kg jet fuel to emitted kg CO2 of 3.15, in the year 2013 approximately 32,130 tonnes of CO2 were emitted.

7. How high was the CO2 emission of the “Eurofighter” weapon system per flight hour?

One EUROFIGHTER per flight hour needs average 3.5 tonnes of fuel. Using the conversion factor of 3.15 for kg jet fuel to emitted kg CO2 yields an average CO2 emission per EUOFIGHTER flight hour of approx. 11 tonnes.”

Klimaretter promptly points out that flying a Eurofighter for a single hour produced as much Co2 as one citizen does in an entire year. It adds:

‘The Eurofighter weapons system is also a climate killer as the fighter jet emits as much carbon dioxide as a German citizen does in one year,’ assesses Eva Bulling-Schröter the results of her query. ‘Weapons only bring death and suffering; they also damage our environment and climate.’”

When compared to global natural and man-made total emissions, the 10,000 tonnes emitted by the Eurofighter is a mere drop in the ocean, and theoretically has an impact on the climate than can be measured only in pico-degrees.

Klimaretter does not stop at pushing for a grounding of the Eurofighter at the Neuburg base, but even implies that the military all over the world contributes substantially to climate damage, posing the question under the photo it posted:

US American soldier in the Iraq War: Just how much the military contributes to climate change worldwide has been hardly studied so far.”

Yes, this needs to be studied, the leftists are demanding. And should the military emit too much CO2, then it too will have to be grounded all over the world.

Oblivious to gathering threat from extremists worldwide

Indeed Islamic fanatics, the ISIS, Taliban, Boko Haram, Russian rebels and a host of other menacing threats to our western civilization and freedom probably could not find better, unwitting allies in Germany than the leftwing socialist/green parties – and kooky climate-doomsday websites like Klimaretter.

 

Leading European Financial Institutes Close Their “Climate Change” Offices…”Want To Be Less Visible”

A few years ago it seemed as if there were lots of opportunities everywhere to make money with climate change. But as time goes on, it is increasingly becoming apparent that the heydays for many in Europe are just about over.
======================================

Zurich Insurance Group shuts down climate office that was opened in 2008

By Sebastian Lüning, Fritz Vahrenholt

The Zurich Insurance Group is closing the climate office it had opened in 2008, a Zurich spokeswoman confirmed to E&E Publishing. Over the past several weeks and months Zurich Office Director Lindene Patton had been actively promoting the idea of the climate catastrophe to the US Senate. Patton had also co-wrote the US National Climate Assessment, which flopped completely thanks to the alarmist tendencies of her colleagues.

Apparently the Zurich has slammed on the brakes because the lobbying efforts closely tied to the IPCC are no longer getting acceptance from the public and parts of US politics. In general the insurance business is suspected of using extreme weather warnings to peddle their products to customers and to justify high premiums.

The following is an excerpt of an article by Evan Lehmann of the E&E News Platform dated 27 June 2014 on the closure of the Zurich climate change office:

Leading insurer to close its climate change office, leaving the industry ‘mute’
Zurich Insurance Group is closing its U.S. climate change office six years after opening it to help persuade companies to press public officials for solutions to climbing disaster losses, according to several sources. The move seems likely to end a high-profile advocacy effort that exposed federal lawmakers to the financial concerns of a major insurer regarding rising temperatures. Some observers also say the closure stands to lessen an industry voice that might resonate with Republicans in a debate that’s often characterized as driven by Democratic ideology. Zurich’s decision comes amid a flush of visibility for the office and its director, Lindene Patton, who in recent months helped write the National Climate Assessment, testified before a Senate panel and spoke at the White House. In some circles, that has distinguished Patton as an unusually credible advocate for climate action who speaks from the suit-and-trouser world of the financial sector, where crunching numbers outpaces environmental ideology. One observer described her as a “dynamo.” [...]

When Zurich announced its ‘climate initiative’ six years ago, it was an effort, in part, to rally other members of the massive industry to get involved in shaping public policy. It warned of worsening climate risks that foretold of more than just sharpening damage from floods and storms: The industry also faces increased pressure from regulators and, in the eyes of customers, reputational risk if it doesn’t act, the company said. [...] ‘The internal meaning could be that they don’t want to stick their neck out, that they want to be less visible with regard to climate change in general,’ said Walter Stahel, director of risk management research at the Geneva Association, a Swiss think tank funded by the insurance industry. ‘And they want to break it down into much more concrete [efforts] to impose adaptation measures.’ [...] A Zurich spokeswoman confirmed yesterday that the climate office is being closed.”

Continue reading at E&E News.

Already in autumn 2012 the Deutsche Bank closed its analysis department for the impacts of global warming.