German Scientists Say It’s “Game Over” For “Potsdam Climate Alarm Factory”

At their “Die kalte Sonne” site, geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and chemist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt write that Stefan Rahmstorf of the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research has had to watch another one of his alarmist claims go down in flames.
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Game over: Dutch scientists refute Rahmstorf’s Gulf Stream alarm story

In March 2015 Stefan Rahmstorf (“stefan”) spread a hyped up alarm story at the IPCC-friendly climate blog Real Climate.

A cold anomaly in the Atlantic, off the east coast of Greenland, was alleged to be the proof that the Gulf Stream was gradually weakening – a consequence of man-made climate warming!

“stefan” wrote at Realclimate:

What’s going on in the North Atlantic?
The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years. […] It happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System weakens (experts speak of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC, as part of the global thermohaline circulation). That this might happen as a result of global warming is discussed in the scientific community since the 1980s – since Wally Broecker’s classical Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?” Meanwhile evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway.

Rahmstorf showed the following chart (“Linear temperature trend from 1900 to 2013″):

In his post the Postdam PIK scientist painted a climate horror scenario, suggesting that it was something far worse than anything ever previously anticipated.

Subsequently international colleagues took it upon themselves to validate the Rahmstorfian horror scenario. One year later we now have the results of the examination.

On June 29, 2016, Femke de Jong and Laura de Steur of the Dutch NIOZ Institute at the OSNAP project site announced the results in a press release: Rahmstorf and his model were totally off. The especially observed North Atlantic cold anomaly in the winter 2014/15 had nothing to do with a weakening Gulf Stream, rather it was much more the consequence of a powerful vertical mixing with cold low level water.

The press release states:

A new record in mixing of surface and deep ocean water in the Irminger Sea has important consequences for the Atlantic overturning circulation 

Scientists Femke de Jong and Laura de Steur of the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research have shown that the recent temperature changes in the Irminger Sea between Iceland and Greenland can be explained through regional ocean-atmosphere interaction during the cold winter of 2014-2015. This rejects a hypothesis that posed that increased meltwater from Greenland weakened deep water formation and caused the cold blob. The article by de Jong and de Steur is accepted by Geophysical Research letters and has appeared online.

Deep water formation is an important process in the global ocean circulation. When high latitude winters are cold enough, the salty surface water of the North Atlantic cools enough to increase its density and mix with underlying deeper waters. This mixing is called deep convection. It forms the vertical link between the warm northward flow near the surface and the cold southward flow along the bottom, which is generally referred to as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The transport of warm water in the overturning circulation is partly responsible for the mild climate in northwestern Europe compared to similar latitudes in North America.

In climate model simulations the strength of convection south of Greenland is related to the strength of the overturning circulation. Some models predict that convection will weaken due to the input of freshwater released from the melting ice on Greenland. Because of the much lower density of freshwater compared to seawater it forms a barrier that isolates the deep ocean from the cold atmosphere. While the majority of the Earth warms as a result of climate change the region around southern Greenland would cool.

In temperature observations of the earth’s surface in 2015 a similar pattern seems to appear. The Earth warmed while the ocean southeast of Greenland cooled. This led to speculation that convection had already weakened as a result of increased melting of Greenland’s icecap. It would mean that the overturning circulation would be affected faster than expected.

Instruments moored in the Irminger Sea, southeast of Greenland, shows that this is not (yet) the case. This mooring, deployed by the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) at 3 km depth in 2003, shows that convection strengthened in recent years. Record depths of convection were observed in the Irminger Sea in the winter of 2014-2015. This strong mixing was caused by an extremely cold and long winter. Two NIOZ scientists, Femke de Jong and Laura de Steur, have shown that the temperature evolution in the Irminger Sea (including the strong decrease in 2015) can be explained through regional interaction between the ocean and atmosphere. The manuscript that describes the convection and explains the temperature changes is accepted in Geophysical Research Letters. This coincides with a publication by a German group in Nature Geoscience this week, in which they use a model to show that it will take some time before freshwater from Greenland enters the deep water formation regions in large enough amount to weaken convection.

The measurements in the Irminger Sea were partly funded by the European North Atlantic CLIMate (NACLIM) project and are part of the international OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program). The goal of OSNAP is to quantify the overturning circulation and its heat transport at high latitudes and to establish a relation to convection and wind forcing. On the 26th of July a research expedition will return to the Irminger Sea to recover the NIOZ and other OSNAP moorings and do a hydrographic survey. This cruise can be followed on the OSNAP blog at www.o-snap.org. A short video documentary of last year’s cruise can be found on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-lhCIQjE4c).

In the paper’s abstract in the Geophysical Research Letters, Femke de Jong and Laura de Steur leave little doubt that the Gulf Stream continues to flow reliably:

Strong winter cooling over the Irminger Sea in winter 2014–2015, exceptional deep convection, and the emergence of anomalously low SST
Deep convection is presumed to be vital for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, even though observational evidence for the link remains inconclusive. Modeling studies have suggested that convection will weaken as a result of enhanced freshwater input. The emergence of anomalously low sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic has led to speculation that this process is already at work. Here we show that strong atmospheric forcing in the winter of 2014–2015, associated with a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, produced record mixed layer depths in the Irminger Sea. Local mixing removed the stratification of the upper 1400 m and ventilated the basin to middepths resembling a state similar to the mid-1990s when a positive NAO also prevailed. We show that the strong local atmospheric forcing is predominantly responsible for the negative sea surface temperature anomalies observed in the subpolar North Atlantic in 2015 and that there is no evidence of permanently weakened deep convection.”

This is yet another failure for Stefan Rahmstorf and his Potsdam climate alarmism factory.

It is refreshing to see that the international research community is increasingly resisting these dubious PIK creations. It is also time for the German press to report on these results for the sake of balance. The Washington Post showed how to do it on 30 June 2016:

The mysterious ‘cold blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean is starting to give up its secrets
[…] Stefan Rahmstorf, an ocean physicist with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and author of the study mentioned above, has writtenthat very cold temperatures in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in the winter of 2014-2015 “suggests the decline of the circulation has progressed even further now than we documented in the paper.” But in a new study in Geophysical Research Letters reporting on deep ocean measurements from this region, two researchers present an alternative interpretation. They say that they found “exceptional” levels of deep ocean convection, or mixing of surface waters with deep waters of a sort that helps drive the overturning circulation, during in the winter of 2014-2015 — the height of the cold “blob.” And they attribute that temperature phenomenon to natural climate variability, driven by local weather and winds. “We find that the observed temperature variability is explained without invoking a trend in the lateral heat transport that would be representative of an AMOC slowdown,” Femke de Jong and Laura de Steur of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research write in the paper. […]”

Read the entire article at the Washington Post.

Non-Existent Relationship …CO2-Temperature Correlation Only 15% Of Last 165 Years

By Kenneth Richard

The HadCRUT global temperature dataset that the IPCC references contains instrumental records that date back to the year 1850. Precise CO2 data (measured in tenths of parts per million)  from thousands of years ago can be found in Antarctic ice cores, with direct measurements (Mauna Loa) available since the 1950s.   In comparing the two records, it can be concluded that during the last 165 years, rapidly increasing CO2 concentrations only correlate with rapidly increasing global temperatures for one 25-year period (1977-2001).   Put another way, for 85% of the last 165 years there has been little to no correlation between CO2 concentration changes and temperature changes.

Maximum CO2 warming occurs within 10 years after emission

Before illustrating the lack of trend correlation between CO2 and temperature during the last 165 years, it needs to be pointed out that scientists have determined that on average it takes about 10 years for the maximum warming effect from CO2 emission to be realized. In other words, CO2 emissions from the 1950s predominantly had the most pronounced effect on temperature trends by the 1960s.  It could also be said that we are now experiencing the height of the warming effects of the CO2 emissions from the early 2000s.  The timing of the CO2-to-temperature effect was determined by Ricke and Caldeira (2014) in their Environmental Research Letters paper entitled “Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission”.

Ricke and Caldeira, 2014:

It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects, we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years.

Selecting decadal-sale warming and cooling phases

Having established that correlational fluctuations between CO2 concentrations and global temperature should be detectable on a decadal scale (presuming that Ricke and Caldeira [2014] are correct), the CO2 and temperature record for the last 165 years can be considered — rooted in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) assumption that temperature fluctuations should occur in direct response to CO2 concentration changes.

The IPCC routinely selects starting and ending points from the instrumental record to establish warming and cooling phases in their trend analysis. For example, the years 1998-2012 from IPCC AR5 (2013)  are selectively used to analyze the recent “hiatus” in global warming, and the years 1910 to 1940 are selected in AR4 (2007) to denote the early 20th century warming (ETCW).  In that same vein, the decadal-scale periods selectively considered for this analysis are:

  1. 1850 – 1910
  2. 1910 – 1940
  3. 1940 – 1977
  4. 1977 – 2001
  5. 2001 – 2014

1. 1850 – 1910: -0.1°C Cooling with +15 ppm CO2

According to NASA*, between 1850 and 1910, CO2 concentrations rose from 285 ppm to 300 ppm. During this same 60-year period, global temperatures cooled by almost -0.1°C despite the +15 ppm increase in CO2 concentration.  The temperature trends are illustrated below with woodfortrees interactive graphs.

Kenneth_1

2. 1910 – 1940: +0.45°C Warming with +11 ppm CO2

Between 1910 and 1940, CO2 concentrations rose from 300 ppm to 311 ppm, or by +11 ppm. Interestingly, anthropogenic CO2 emissions did not rise, but remained flat at 1 gigatons of carbon (GtC) per year during this period.  Even so, in the 30 years between 1910 and 1940, global temperatures warmed by +0.45°C, or +0.15°C per decade.

Kenneth_2

Chart: www.woodfortrees.org/plot/1910/to:1940/trend

3. 1940 – 1977: -0.1°C Cooling with +23 ppm CO2

Between 1940 and 1977, CO2 concentrations rose from 311 ppm to 334 ppm, or +23 ppm. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions dramatically rose from about 1 GtC per year in 1940 to about 5 GtC per year by the mid-1970s.  During these 35+ years of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and anthropogenic CO2 emissions, global temperatures nonetheless cooled by almost -0.1°C.

Kenneth_3

Chart: www.woodfortrees.org/trend

4. 1977 – 2001: +0.35°C Warming with +37 ppm CO2

The first and only period in the last 165 years that there was actually a correlation between rapidly rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions and rapidly rising temperature was between the years 1977 and 2001. CO2 concentrations rose from 334 ppm to 371 ppm, or +37 ppm during this period.  Temperatures rose by +0.35°C, or +0.15°C per decade  —  a similar warming rate when compared to the 1910 to 1940 trend.

Kenneth_4

Chart: www.woodfortrees.org/plot/trend

5. 2001 – 2014: -0.04°C Cooling with +27 ppm CO2

Finally, between 2001 and 2014, CO2 concentrations rose from 371 ppm to 398 ppm, or by +27 ppm. During this same period,  temperatures remained flat or even slightly cooled by a few hundredths of a degree, which meant that a substantial portion of the latest IPCC report (AR5, 2013) necessarily was devoted to explaining why the 21st century global warming “hiatus” had occurred.

Several dozen scientific papers were also published during this period, each attempting to explain why CO2 could be rapidly rising while temperatures were not.  This “pause” inconvenience was eliminated in 2015 with the onset of the 2015-’16 Super El Niño that rapidly drove up sea surface temperatures, as well as via the nearly immediate  acceptance of the controversial Thomas Karl (et al., 2015**) “pause-busting” paper which selected the year 1998 as a starting point and adjusted past warming down and more recent warming up (so as to allow temperature trends to correspond better with climate models).  With the onset of the La Niña recovery trend commencing in April/May 2016, temperatures are likely to continue to decline from the 2015-’16 El Niño peak in the near future despite the rapidly rising CO2 concentrations (which have now eclipsed 400 ppm); this may further extend the 21st century pause in global warming that began in the early 2000s.

Kenneth_5

Chart: www.woodfortrees.org/plot/trend.

Summarizing Question 

Many Holocene temperature reconstructions show significant fluctuation in temperatures during the last 2,000 years (i.e., a Roman Warm Period, a Dark Ages cool period, a Medieval Warm Period, and a Little Ice Age cool period). However, CO2 concentrations remained stable at about 270 to 275 ppm throughout each warming and cooling epoch.  For example, during the roughly 600 years between the as-warm or warmer-than-now Medieval Warm Period and the beginning of the 20th century (the 1300 to 1900 A.D. Little Ice Age), temperatures plummeted to the coldest centennial-scale phase of the last 10,000 years.  Yet CO2 concentrations not only did not decline along with the temperatures, they rose slightly during this period.  This record necessarily extends the lack of correlation between CO2 and temperature changes well beyond the last 165 years.

The summarizing question, then, is this:

If CO2 is a primary determinant of temperature (as the AGW theory proposes), and if the warming effects of CO2 emission reach their maximum impact within about a decade, why is the correlation between decadal-scale CO2 trends and decadal-scale temperature trends weak to non-existent for most (~85%) of the last 165 years, as well as completely non-existent for nearly all of the last 2,000 years?

*   http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/Fig1A.ext.txt

** http://science.sciencemag.org/content/348/6242/1469

Snow Forecast For Central Europe (Again!) …Down To “Under 2000 Meters Elevation”!

What’s going on in Europe this summer?

It seems this summer is getting regularly punctuated by fall-like or even winterlike weather.

Snow is once again in the forecast – during the hottest time of the year!

Summer snow in europe

Wintry conditions forecast for some parts of the Alps next week. Photo: NTZ (not Alps region, for illustrative proposes only).

A couple of weeks ago (mid July!) I reported here how snow had fallen down to elevations of 1600 meters – a “rare event” according to meteorologists, stunning Europeans.

Well, the white stuff may be back! Today meteorologist Dominik Jung here writes that once again snow is expected to fall in the Alps region, possibly even down to elevations under 2000 meters.

Of course caution needs to be exercised here, as this forecast is some days out, and so there’s uncertainty in it.

But the fact that the models could show this happening during the hottest time of the year is already impressive in itself.

What follows is the press release from wetter.net:
================

Wiesbaden (wetter.net) 03 August 2016 – After a few nice days starting Sunday, things could get drastically worse next week. Polar air could even deliver snow to the Alps.

It’s scary what the weather model is calculating for the next 10 – 14 days. After a few nice days with warmth this coming weekend and on Monday and Tuesday, afterwards things could really be falling through the floor! Already yesterday and today many clouds and continuous rain have been the rule. We are a long way from peak summer, even though we are right in the middle of the dog days – the hottest time of the year! Today one year ago in Germany were highs of near 35°C in the shade. Today in some places will not even see 20°C.

On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday there could be a small peak summer event, after that it appears there is going to be a crash over the days that follow. Temperatures will drop considerably. From Northern Europe cold polar air will sweep down to Germany. In January this would bring a peak winter weather pattern. For the current time of the year it is simply going to be cool, wet and overall autumn-like. In may be wintry foremost in the Alps.

After the middle of next week the snowfall elevation could drop at times below 2000 meters. Whoever thought this summer could not be worse, August is poised to show us otherwise.”

German Daily ‘Die Welt’: “People Rebelling Against Wind Power” …Viewed As “A Destructive Force”

The July 24, 2016 print edition of national flagship daily Die Welt wrote a feature story on how German citizens are becoming fed up with the widespread crony capitalism of the wind energy business and are thus now mobilizing a fierce rebellion. The German daily writes of health issues for people living in their vicinity.

The article starts by featuring technology fan Volker Tschischke, who was once an ardent proponent of renewable energy – until wind turbines were built close to his residence and encircled his home village of Etteln. Now he leads a citizens initiative against the construction of wind parkc. The turbines “have driven him to resistance“, Die Welt writes.

Local politicians are no longer serving the interests of the local people, but rather “are rolling out the red carpet for wind power companies” and appear to be “no longer listening to the people and about the concerns of their everyday lives,” the national German daily writes.

A “destructive force”

Die Welt describes an Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) that is “dividing the people“, where those who live in big cities and thus not effected by the blight are open to wind parks, while those living in the countryside are fed up and fiercely resisting them. Die Welt reports that people across rural Germany “no longer view the Energiewende as a necessary national project, but as a destructive force.”

Now, ever so gradually, it even appears that Berlin is getting the message as leading parties see their poll numbers dropping. Die Welt writes that Berlin is now throttling the expansion of wind parks and working to “deescalate the conflict“.

“Ruined and destroyed for generations”

As an example of blight and destruction, Die Welt cites the area surrounding the central city of Paderborn, quoting a local resident who is thinking about packing up and leaving: “Here the living area is being ruined and destroyed for generations.”

Even though Berlin is scrambling to put the brakes on the uncontrolled spread of wind turbine littering across the rural landscape, local residents often remain powerless against the mighty wind industrialists and projects that have already been proposed. And even when local political leaders side up with their residents against the parks, Die Welt describes a David versus Goliath fight:

On one side there’s the mayor of the town and some of his staff, and on the other side there are corporation-like companies that hire staffs of lawyers.”

In such cases the big wind companies have an easy time pile-driving their projects through, Die Welt writes.

Opponents resort to sabotage

Also wind park developers often promise towns and villages cash-flow from wind projects, But as Die Welt reports, most never end up seeing any money. “The promise of business tax revenue is a ‘large fairy tale’.”

Die Welt also adds that wind park opponents are often labeled “grumblers“, “troublemakers” or “Energiewende blockers who use ludicrous ways to try to stop the success of the Energiewende.”

The conflict has even escalated to the point where opponents have even sabotaged a wind measurement instrument used to check the feasibility of a possible future project. Farmers are even blocking deforestation equipment with their tractors, Die Welt reports.

Lawless, Wild West conditions

In other locations it seems that wind energy development resembles the Wild West where there is a complete lack of law and order. Town have corrupted the planning, permitting and building process. Die Welt writes sometimes sleazy towns act as planner, permitting authority, builder and operator all in one. Nothing stands in the way. There are no checks and balances. Only a few profiteers. The German daily writes:

The county of Aurich is a stakeholder in wind park projects. For the investor that is totally practical. He is thus practically the funder, impact study conductor and project approver all in one.”

Whether its solar power or wind energy, there’s a common thread: A very select few are profiting hugely while the rest of society are left to clean up a huge industrial, financial and environmental mess.

 

All Natural… Four New Scientific Publications Show No Detectable Sea Level Rise Signal!

4 New Papers: Anthropogenic Signal Not Detectable in Sea Level Rise

By Kenneth Richard
Clouds over the Atlantic Ocean

Photo: By Tiago Fioreze (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

It is widely assumed that sea levels have been rising in recent decades largely in response to anthropogenic global warming. However, due to the inherently large contribution of natural oscillatory influences on sea level fluctuations, this assumption lacks substantiation. Instead, natural factors or internal variability override the detection of an anthropogenic signal and may instead largely explain the patterns in sea level rise in large regions of the global oceans.

Scientists who have recently attempted to detect an anthropogenic signal in regional sea level rise trends have had to admit that there is “no observable sea-level effect of anthropogenic global warming,” or that the “sea level rise pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal,” and that sea level “trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability.”

Below are highlighted summaries from 4 peer-reviewed scientific papers published within the last few months.

1. Hansen et al., 2016

For the convenience of the readers, our basic results are shown in Figure 1. We identified five individual oscillations (upper panel), including a sea-level amplitude of 70 mm (top–bottom [t-b]) of the 18.6-year oscillation caused by the lunar nodal oscillation (LNO) … Together with a general sea-level rise of 1.18 mm/y, the sum of these five sea-level oscillations constitutes a reconstructed or theoretical sea-level curve of the eastern North Sea to the central Baltic Sea (Figure 1, lower panel), which correlates very well with the observed sea-level changes of the 160-year period (1849–2009), from which 26 long tide gauge time series are available from the eastern North Sea to the central Baltic Sea.  Such identification of oscillators and general trends over 160 years would be of great importance for distinguishing long-term, natural developments from possible, more recent anthropogenic sea-level changes. However, we found that a possible candidate for such anthropogenic development, i.e. the large sea-level rise after 1970, is completely contained by the found small residuals, long-term oscillators, and general trend. Thus, we found that there is (yet) no observable sea-level effect of anthropogenic global warming in the world’s best recorded region.

2. Palanisamy, 2016

Building up on the relationship between thermocline and sea level in the tropical region, we show that most of the observed sea level spatial trend pattern in the tropical Pacific can be explained by the wind driven vertical thermocline movement. By performing detection and attribution study on sea level spatial trend patterns in the tropical Pacific and attempting to eliminate signal corresponding to the main internal climate mode, we further show that the remaining residual sea level trend pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal. In addition, we also suggest that satellite altimetry measurement may not still be accurate enough to detect the anthropogenic signal in the 20-year tropical Pacific sea level trends.

3. Hadi Bordbar et al., 2016

The tropical Pacific has featured some remarkable trends during the recent decades such as an unprecedented strengthening of the Trade Winds, a strong cooling of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central part, thereby slowing global warming and strengthening the zonal SST gradient, and highly asymmetric sea level trends with an accelerated rise relative to the global average in the western and a drop in the eastern part. These trends have been linked to an anomalously strong Pacific Walker Circulation, the major zonal atmospheric overturning cell in the tropical Pacific sector, but the origin of the strengthening is controversial. Here we address the question as to whether the recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean system are within the range of internal variability, as simulated in long unforced integrations of global climate models. We show that the recent trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability.

4. Dangendorf et al., 2016

The observed 20th century sea level rise represents one of the major consequences of anthropogenic climate change. However, superimposed on any anthropogenic trend there are also considerable decadal to centennial signals linked to intrinsic natural variability in the climate system. … Gravitational effects and ocean dynamics further lead to regionally varying imprints of low frequency variability. In the Arctic, for instance, the causal uncertainties are even up to 8 times larger than previously thought. This result is consistent with recent findings that beside the anthropogenic signature, a non-negligible fraction of the observed 20th century sea level rise still represents a response to pre-industrial natural climate variations such as the Little Ice Age.

 

Eco-Nonsense Now Spreads To Beer As Eco-Friendly Brewing Becomes The Latest Marketing Fad

A climate scientist brought my attention to a recent article reporting how one site has identified 13 beers that are climatically and environmentally correct to drink. I’m pretty sure his main objective was to show just how nutty the movement has become.

Photo: Public domain.

Paulaner_Public DomainSo I thought readers here might enjoy finding out how the climate trend has even swept over parts of the US beer industry: Drinking responsibly now also includes drinking to protect the environment!

Such rubbish.

Personally in Germany I really do admire the beer culture they have long developed here over the centuries. Many beers are still brewed according to the German Purity Law of 1516 (Happy Birthday, by the way!). What’s even better is that Central Europe qualifies as a true paradise for beer fans and connoisseurs, offering a great selection, premium quality and at prices which are in fact very low relative to other countries. For example a case of 24 glass bottles (0.33 l) of great quality beer can be easily picked up for about 10 euros (11 dollars) in Germany – and even less in the Czech Republic – and packaged in real, heavy dark glass bottles! Compare that to prices in Scandinavia or even the USA.

Now it appears that the the target of brewing beer has, for some breweries at least, strayed, going from producing a premium quality brew to making one that purports to protect the global climate, and so possibly sacrificing quality for the sake of an illusion. This is not serious business. It’s a marketing gimmick. I’d never drink such beer.

The brand of beer I drink depends solely on whether the taste suits me, and not if it’s organic, green, politically correct, or for saving some rainforest somewhere. To enjoy a beer, it has to be of good quality, on draught, put in a proper glass, be at the right temperature, with a have head of foam, fulfill the Purity Law, and especially be enjoyed in good company. See more here.

So have an uncompromised beer. Cheers!

 

Media “Phonies, The Fraud And The Corruption” Exposed…Credibility In Freefall

I’m short on time today, as will be the case tomorrow as well, and so here’s something way off topic – from last week. Recall I recently wrote about the glaring hypocrisy and deceitfulness of an all-white German media here.

It appears that the heydays of the media are almost over. Their credibility has been rocked. On wide range of issues they have been misleading, outright lying and covering up for too long and it is now all coming home to roost.

They are being exposed in a big way for what they’ve really been over the past couple of decades. The public has woken up. The media is deservedly a despised institution in the eyes of many citizens.

I was really impressed by the powerful speech made by Laura Ingraham. If you’re short on time, start at about the 13:30 mark.

If you have had it with our media, it’ll resonate like, wow!

And here’s one of my favorite politicians (because he actually got things done). Guliani tells how he’s sick and tired of the media defamation of Trump:

He ought to come to Germany and witness the absolute universal bias here. Here they make Hillary look like a shining role model of a law-abiding citizen.

 

New Paper Shows No Precipitation Trend On Iberian Peninsula Over Past 300 Years!

Puzzling drought history of Spain during the past 300 years

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German passages translated by P. Gosselin)

[NOTE: Comment moderation will be slow over the next couple of days due to limited WIFI access. -PG]

Gradually word is getting out that the current climate trend has to be put in an historical pre-industrial context before one can draw far-reaching conclusions on anthropogenic causes. The Spanish Research platform sinc published on 27 June 2016 a press release on the drought history of Spain during the past three hundred years:

Radiography of drought periods in Spain from the last 318 years

The Mediterranean Basin has been witness to increased droughts for at least five decades, but has this always been the case? A team from the University of Zaragoza has been successful in reconstructing, for the first time, the droughts from 1694 to 2012 based on the precipitation index and the study of tree growth rings. According to the study, the twelve months leading up to July 2012 were the driest.

In the Mediterranean Basin, droughts are a recurring phenomenon that negatively impacts society, economic activities and natural systems. No one seems to doubt the fact that temperatures all over the world have risen in recent decades. However, this trend does not appear to be perceived as clearly when it comes to precipitation (for which data from 1950 onwards is available). Thus, up until now, the study on the recurrence and severity of droughts in Spain has been based on information from weather stations, with sufficient data only as of the mid-twentieth century.

To test the evolution of the droughts, scientists from the Department of Geography at the University of Zaragoza utilised indirect information, such as the study of tree growth rings, to reconstruct the climate of the Iberian Range as far back as 1694 and to analyse dry periods using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The researchers collected 336 samples and 45,648 growth rings from five different species (P. sylvestris, P. uncinata, P. nigra, P. halepensis, and Pinus pinaster) from 21 locations in the province of Teruel, in the east of the Iberian Peninsula, at an average altitude of 1,600 metres. The results, published in the ‘International Journal of Biometeorology’, made it possible to evaluate droughts from the last three centuries; they reveal that the twelve months leading up to July 2012 were the driest over the entire period studied. “We have been able to successfully identify seven especially dry periods and five wet periods since the end of the 17th century”, says Ernesto Tejedor to Sinc, the main author of the study.

The driest periods

According to the researchers, in addition to these periods there have been 36 extremely dry years and 28 very wet years since the end of the 17th century. “Some of these dry years, such as 1725, 1741, 1803 and 1879, are also identified in other drought reconstructions in Romania and Turkey, thus demonstrating the larger-scale coherence of the extreme deviations and their relationship with increasingly global atmospheric processes”, adds Tejedor.

Many of these extreme events are associated with catastrophic historical and cultural changes from the last three centuries. In fact, 1725 is known as ‘The year without a harvest’ in Monegros. These events are reflected in historical documents as the ‘pro-pluvia’ rogations, “since the intense droughts led to bad harvests with serious consequences for society”, comments Tejedor.

The reconstruction of droughts using dendrochronology does not make it possible to directly predict extreme future events, although these reconstructions are indeed used to validate future climate change models. “What we are seeing from the 20th century, and what we have seen so far in the 21st is an increase in the recurrence of extreme phenomena, including both wet and dry years”, stresses the researcher to Sinc. For the expert, predictions for precipitation variability and trends are not yet reliable like those for temperature, as other factors which are still being studied also play a role.

Citation: Tejedor, Ernesto; de Luis, Martin; María Cuadrat, José; Esper, Jan; Angel Saz, Miguel. “Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range (east of Spain) since 1694” International Journal of Biometeorology 60(3): 361-372 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-015-1033-7 marzo de 2016″

Using tree rings the authors documented 36 extremely dry years in Spain over the past 318 years. Somewhat sensationally they declared 2011/2012 the driest year ever, which as a single incident is hardly evidence of any climate trend. More interesting would be the distribution of the drought-intense periods over time. Here the press release is silent on this, and so we present the original chart from the paper to have a look.

Figure 2: Precipiation curve for the Iberian Range in Spain for the last 3 centuries. Source: Tejedor et al. 2016b. The yellow areas mark the 11-year drought periods. 

When it comes to the trend, the press release is somewhat misleading.

Yes, there is an obvious increase in drought in 20th century. In the second half of the 20th century two longer periods of drought were registered while in the first half it was wetter. Yet there was also a higher frequency of drought phases in the 18th century and early 19th century – i.e. during the Little Ice Age. That could have been mentioned.

Instead the press release concluded that it was still too early to make trend projections. Yet as it stands it looks as if there isn’t any real long term trend over the centuries. Thus it would be false to infer any trend based on the droughts of the last decades alone.

A look back at the last major warm phase – the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) of 1000 years ago – shows how complex the Iberian peninsula is when it comes to precipitation. Within the scope of the MWP-charting project we identified a corridor on the Iberian peninsula where it got wetter during the MWP (green points on chart). To the contrary in the outer areas of the Iberian peninsula it became drier during the MWP (yellow points).

 

Software Expert Exposes Potential NASA Climate Data Fraud …Trend “Completely Fake” And “Manipulated!

Note: Due to limited WIFI over next couple of days, comment moderation will be sporadic.
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Software engineering whiz Tony Heller makes a presentation on climate change and the data behind it.

If you haven’t watched it already, then do take the time to do so.

“Utter nonsense”

Heller, who goes by the pseudo-name of Steve Goddard at his wildly popular realclimatecience site, calls the idea that it’s getting hotter is “utter nonsense” and shows how US temperatures were much hotter in the 1930s.

According to Heller, the warming in the US is not real, and was created through statistical tricks after 1990. Later he highlights some of the many ridiculous claims climate experts and activist politicians made, and have since turned out to be a complete folly. At this point the presentation rivets your attention and for skeptics it becomes one you don’t want to stop watching.

“Manipulated to increase alarm”

Heller calls the US warming trend “completely fake” and being due to “station data loss and fabrication” and later shows that NASA “erased” the once unanimously agreed cooling from 1940 – 1970:

Heller_1

 

Not only temperature data have been altered, but so has sea level data, Heller later shows. Overall he writes “climate data is being manipulated to increase alarm“.

 

German Geophysicist: “AGW Built On Failed Scientific Assumptions And Economic Speculations”

Challenging AGW on the Eve of Destruction

Guest essay by Uli Weber, Geophysicist, Germany

Since the G7-summit at Elmau Castle (2015) and the climate summit COP21 in Paris (2015) the declared political aim of all governments of the world is a global decarbonisation until the year 2100 to save our planet from anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The AGW-paradigm is allegedly supported by 97% of all climate scientists worldwide and global decarbonisation has even been recommended by religious leaders.

And recently, on the 22nd of April 2016, representatives from about 170 nations officially signed the Paris Climate Convention for global decarbonisation at the United Nations in New York.

But are we really been forced by future anthropogenic global warming to ruin our life-standards through such a complete disruption of our present technological basis?

Mainstream climate sciences held carbon dioxide (CO2) from the industrial use of fossil energies responsible to amplify the natural greenhouse effect until the earth becomes uninhabitable. Legions of AGW-protagonists worldwide, paid with billions of dollars from official scientific funds, private foundations, and environmental NGOs promote the public perception of an anthropogenic climate warming and call their AGW-Paradigm to be “settled science”. Furthermore, these protagonists claim “the debate is over” for their paradigm in an adverse interpretation of the true spirit of sciences and become supported by a biased majority of the public media.

Unprofitable scientific arts from outside climate sciences push themselves next to the meat-pots of climate-alarm with a rising number of papers from psychologists and historians which criticise the heretical influence from a scientific minority, slandered as “climate-deniers”, on the public recognition of AGW arguments. Recently, some climate active politicians even aim to silence “climate deniers” by trying to criminalize their scientific standpoint. Such independent climate scientists with diverging scientific results on global warming are performing their scientific work mainly with poor budgets or even on a free voluntary basis. And instead of a fair and open scientific debate about their arguments they usually become publicly denounced in their personal credibility while mainstream climate sciences try to exorcize them from the scientific community.

It seems today that the moral of sciences has become progressively infected from its well-paid trustees and their political and medial supporters by the virus of noble cause corruption aiming for a better carbon-free world in future.

Facing such aimed global decarbonisation to happen we may not forget that through the cultural evolution of mankind the available energy per capita has been repeatedly multiplied and has improved the standards of living for us all:

  • Stone Age (= small local villages): Available energy per capita was about the 3-6-fold of the basic human need.
  • Times of Agriculture (= advanced regional civilisations): Available energy per capita was about the 18-24-fold of the basic human need.
  • Industrial Times (= networked global city): Available energy per capita is about the 70-80-fold of the basic human need.

The industrial use of fossil energies since begin of industrialisation has sustainable increased the public health, our individual life expectancy, our common life standards, the general quality and availability of food, the public and individual transport, communications, and the affordable technologies for everyone.

That means our recent civilisation is existentially dependent on technologies fed by fossil fuels.

The basic principle of anthropogenic global warming could be easily understood by everyone without any scientific education:

The higher the atmospheric CO2 content rises the more will the global mean temperature increase.

Consequently, it is believed by an overwhelming majority of citizens in the industry nations that mankind’s consumption of fossil energies will cause anthropogenic global warming through the emission of CO2.

But is the feared relationship between CO2 and global warming really settled science?

The AGW-paradigm stands in fundamental contradiction to several scientific and economic facts:

  1. Missing reversibility of climate models: Computer models for the future climate progression are not even capable to simulate the natural climate backward to the beginning of systematic temperature records about the year 1850. This inherent imperfection of recent climate models proves that neither all parameters which influence our climate, nor their effective magnitude, nor their factual interaction are correctly implemented in the climate computer models. With these imperfect models climate sciences calculate the course of global temperatures far into future while politicians anchor their arguments for a global decarbonisation on such results.
  2. Climate sciences are incapable to separate the drivers of climate change: No quantitative separation between the factual contributions of natural and anthropogenic drivers to global climate forcing has been published to date. The measurements of global temperature data started around the year 1850, at the end of the historical “Little Ice Age” and begin of industrialisation. There must have been a natural rise of temperatures since then because this “Little Ice Age” has ended without manmade contributions. But in contrary, climate sciences account the whole temperature rise since on AGW with the argument of early industrialisation, although the rise of temperature was much faster than the global course of industrial development.
  3. Climate models ignore the influence of the natural solar cycles on global climate. The known solar cycles (Schwabe, Hale, Yoshimura, Gleißberg, Seuss-de-Vries, Dansgaard-Oeschger, and Hallstatt) with periodicities between 11 and more than 2.000 years are not included in future climate models. Argument is the small absolute variation of solar forcing through such cycles although these variations were definitely the only source for natural climate changes in our recent climate optimum before industrialisation. The finding of Svensmark, the nucleation of clouds from cosmic rays which are controlled by the magnetic field of the sun, is still ignored by mainstream climate sciences. This effect acts as a natural atmospheric amplifier for the variations of solar forcing through a reverse variance of the Earth’s albedo from the global cloud coverage, i.e. a weak sun causes more clouds and conclusively additional cooling. The CLOUD-Experiment at the Zurich CERN Institute has disproved the aerosol formation in present climate models by a factor of one‐tenth to one‐thousandth and found an enhanced nucleation from the Svensmark-effect up to a factor of 10. http://press.web.cern.ch.pdf Last access dated May 13th, 2012
  4. The well documented historical Medieval Warm Period (MWP) which preceded the “Little Ice Age” has been suppressed by the “hockeystick-curve” from Mann et al. in the IPCC TAR (report 2001), apparently to promote the AGW-Paradigm of a constant natural pre-industrial climate at “Little Ice Age”-average global temperatures. Since then, the “hockeystick” has been disproved while it’s still used as an important argument for AGW and the MWP was downgraded to a regional European phenomenon to comply further with the AGW-Paradigm. But in contrary, the analysis of hundreds of scientific papers worldwide by Luning and Vahrenholt proves that the Medieval Warm Period has truly been a global occurrence caused by natural solar variations and consequently questions the AGW-Paradigm vitally. Online atlas by Luning/Vahrenholt: kaltesonne.de/mapping-warm-period/

  5. Climate sciences deny the natural orbital cycles in their climate models and try to defend their simple linear relation between global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Recently, AGW protagonists reduce their view on the past climate succession even further to the second half of the 20th century and try to establish CO2 as the main paleoclimate driver. Already in the year 1924 Wladimir Köppen and Alfred Wegener, the discoverer of modern plate-tectonics, have published the scientific proof that the paleoclimate variability of the past hundred thousands of years is directly related to the orbital Milanković cycles. Reprint “Die Klimate der geologischen Vorzeit” (Bornträger 1924) with an English translation: https://www.schweizerbart.deDE
  6. Growing acidification of the oceans caused by anthropogenic CO2-emissions is feared to reduce the richness of marine species in future. Firstly, a specific quantity of CO2 could either act as climate active gas on global warming or could cause acidification being resolved in the ocean, not both at the same time. But usually, both effects are calculated with the maximum amount of anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Secondly, the maximum possible amount of dissolved CO2 is reversely proportional to the water temperature. Consequently, the warmer the water becomes the less CO2 could be resolved in the oceans and cause acidification. The delayed rise of the atmospheric CO2 content from increasing paleoclimate temperatures supports this causal relationship and is proven by ice-core analyses.
  7. A global sea-level rise from melting glaciers caused by AGW shall flood the Pacific islands and drown lowlands and harbour cities all over the world. A dramatic retreat of glaciers causing a sea-level rise of about hundred meters is a natural phenomenon at begin of interglacial warm times. It seems that marine ice masses are completely controlled by the sea-water temperature while terrestrial ice masses are bound to vertical variations of the global climatic zones. As temperatures are not constant within interglacial warm periods, the lower margin of terrestrial glaciers uses to fluctuate uphill when it becomes warmer and downhill when it becomes cold. Retreating glaciers often release ancient trees which are proving that their margins have been located far uphill in historic times. What we could recently observe at Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula is a glacier retreat to higher altitudes and not a complete melting while at the same time the ice masses of East Antarctica are still growing further. Alarming satellite altimeter data for the sea-level rise of the open ocean are much more prone to errors from an exact correction of the local lunar tides, the local contribution of permanent water circulations, additional water masses driven by wind and local wave heights, and the actual local air pressure than the data from fixed costal gauges.     The usual coastal sea level gauge records show a global sea-level rise at a constant rate since Little Ice Age times without any AGW contribution and will probably continue to do so – if no purposeful corrections were applied in future…
  8. The “hiatus” of the global mean temperature rise, lasting about twenty years now, has already caused multiple adjustments of the original historic temperature data. Updated climate models use then to transfer the “missing heat” into the deeper layers of the oceans. Obviously, digital climate models couldn’t foresee the actual “hiatus” of the global mean temperature rise. But instead of improving actual climate models by altering their false initial conditions to comply with the factual measured climate succession, these climate models are permanently adjusted in their results to meet the outmoded earlier published climate forecasts. Questions remains how that missing heat could escape to deeper ocean layers without been recognized by the ARGO buoy network which is globally distributed over the oceans.
  9. Mainstream climate sciences restrict the effect of future global warming to the negative spectrum of their computer speculations and spread scientific horror scenarios about a manmade future global warming of about three degrees centigrade until the year 2100 into the public attention while every winter ten thousands of people die from cold. For the year 2014 about 40.000 winter deaths in Europe have been reported because people couldn’t pay their bills for electrical power.   http://www.focus.de/immobilien/energiesparen/energie-die-grosse-stromluege-warum-strom-zum-luxus-wird_id_5388458.html?fbc=fb-shares Last access dated April 9th, 2016
  10. Climate sciences claim that global decarbonisation follows the precautionary principle for the future of all mankind in avoiding AGW. The last major climate prophecy was published just in time before the COP21 Paris summit by well pampered minions of the Apocalypse: Anthropogenic CO2-emissions will prevent the next ice-age to happen – in 50.000 years! Is it truly the precautionary principle to save an endangered ice-age in 50.000 years from now? No, it’s genuine science-fiction when mainstream climate sciences ignore solid geo-scientific knowledge from some hundred thousand years of paleoclimate succession and extrapolate a lost ice-age in 50.000 years from their reduced retrospective of a few past decades. With the provision to save the world from its natural climate succession we are devastating our present economies and the future of our children and grandchildren. But what’s about the real global hazards that may endanger mankind’s future within the next 50.000 years, what’s about super-volcano eruptions, asteroid strikes, and the decline of the geo-magnetic field, what is the precautionary principle against these realistic threads?
  11. Renewable energies from sunlight and wind shall replace energy generated from oil, gas, and coal to avoid AGW through CO2 emissions. Recently, renewable energies could only be produced at uneconomic costs with huge subventions directly raised from the majority of consumers and hence indirectly generated from fossil-fed industrial production. To preserve our common standards of living and technology through a future global decarbonisation the required global energy amount must be fully replaced from renewable sources. There are numbers circulating in the media that global decarbonisation is affordable and executable until the year 2100. But the published investments to establish a complete renewable energy production do not even include the costs for the indispensable energy storages and new distribution networks to guaranty the energy supply through nights and windless times nor do they include the rising energy costs for almost every product to be supplied in future. From such rising costs at presumably decreasing production numbers national economies may suffer with less income for employees or even less employees at all. Question remains how the rising subventions for renewable energy shall be paid from decreasing industrial productivity.
  12. The landscape consumption in natural environments for renewable energy production from sunlight and wind is thousand to ten thousand times greater than the areal demand of equal productive conventional power plants. Question must be raised then what will happen through a future decarbonisation to our global natural resources.
  13. At the same time pressure is made on our industrial-scale agriculture to deteriorate to organic production without chemical fertilizers. Agricultural food production stands in competition with the land consumption for renewable energies. Through the ecological food-to-fuel program, i.e. the use of ethanol as a renewable fuel for cars, the effective agricultural acreage for global food production has already been decreased while millions of people worldwide still suffer from undernutrition and hunger. Consequently, the aimed global organic food production with a reduced per acreage productivity of farmland may not meet the demand of a further growing world population…

This synopsis provides evidence that the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming has been built on failed scientific assumptions and economic speculations.

Nevertheless, the prophets of AGW are still spreading their speculations of doom further like an anthropogenic mass madness promoting a wide bunch of divergent objectives against our present economic system which is based on the availability of affordable energy from fossil fuels. The deep religious belief in AGW remains their ultimate tool to destroy our present technical civilisation and to misdirect mankind into a brave new carbon-free world.

We are living now in a next age of cultural evolution, the Anthropocene, where the fundamental differences between scientific facts, personal opinions and religious faiths have become successively blurred while sated people seem truly believe one can slaughter the cow and still drink the milk.

The true global problem of mankind remains the steady increase of the world’s population and its supply with sufficient food and energy as well as the preservation of the global natural resources which are a heritage of us all.

Poverty in the Third World is basically caused by a lack of energy and democratic participation.

The only way out of this dilemma is a democratisation and economic development of the poor countries which would not be possible without fossil energies. Such development would prevent the world population to grow further as proven by the standstill of population growth in the industry nations since begin of industrialisation. Through a development process of the Third World the fossil energy consumption in the industry nations may be minimized at recent standards of living while the protection of the world’s natural resources could be successively improved.

But with their religious belief in AGW the elected and unelected political leaders all over the world, supported by fortune tellers from climate sciences, by biased mainstream media, by faithful heads of religions, and by misguided ecological NGOs and Malthusian foundations, have now decided that mankind shall take quite the opposite direction. Their roadmap into the urgently demanded global decarbonisation until the year 2100 may then cause a fall of democratic rights in the industry nations on the way into a sustainable global energy shortage with Malthusian perspectives for an agricultural Global Third World of organic smallholders. Or, to say it more clearly, in a carbon free world the majority of people worldwide, whatever their absolute number will be then, may work twelve hours a day in organic agriculture to produce one fourth of the present available energy per capita – just as it was in the good old pre-industrial times.

And now, on this eve of destruction, the majority of affected people stands silent aside while the apocalyptical riders of global decarbonisation are going to wreck the future of all mankind …

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Uli Weber is a geophysicist and author of the German language book: Climate hysteria is no solution.

 

How Climatologists Suddenly Turned On A Dime, “Shooed Away” Uncertainty To Promote “Scary Scenarios”

National Academy of Sciences (1975): “We do not know what causes…climatic change”

By Kenneth Richard

After having switched from warning the masses in the 1970s about imminent human-caused global cooling to warning the masses in the 1980s about an imminent human-caused global warming , the late Dr. Stephen Schneider suggested that, to avoid “potentially disastrous climatic change,” scientists should consider offering up “scary scenarios” so as to “capture the public’s imagination.”

Dr. Stephen Schneider via Discover, pp. 45-48, Oct. 1989:

On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have.”

Notice how Schneider confirmed that an essential element in garnering “loads of media coverage” and “broad based support” is to “make little mention of any doubts we [climate scientists] may have.”  Judging by media attention, this “strategy of advocacy” appears to have worked.  After all, a growing percentage of the populace is now familiar with the claim that we can determine there is a 97% scientific consensus that humans cause climate change by selectively counting (and excluding) abstracts from scientific papers.  In other words, expressing uncertainty or doubt about “disastrous climate change” caused by humans relegates one to classification with the claimed 3% fringe.

It didn’t used to be this way. Back in the 1970s and ’80s, or before there were strong government-sponsored incentives to link human activity to climate changes, it was still quite common for scientists to acknowledge that:

(a) climate parameters are extremely difficult to model because

(b) there are far too many unknowns in the climate system to determine cause and effect with confidence, and

(c) a discernable link between climate change and human activity is extremely difficult to establish.

For example, no less than the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) at one time definitively acknowledged that too little is known about the climate system to understand what causes climatic change. The summary of their position below is taken from the extensively-referenced 1975 NAS paper entitled “Understanding Climatic Change”. (National Academy of Sciences, 1975)

[T]he mechanics of the climatic system is so complex, and our observations of its behavior so incomplete, that at present we do not know what causes any particular climatic change to occur. … What we cannot identify at the present time is how the complete climatic system operates, which are its most critical and sensitive parts, which processes are responsible for its changes, and what are the most likely future climates. In short, while we know something about climate itself, we know very little about climatic change.

Aside from local climatic effects, such as those due to urbanization, these studies have not yet established the existence of a large-scale anthropogenic climatic impact (Machata, 1973). Like their numerical simulation counterparts, such studies are made more difficult by the high levels of natural climatic variability and by the lack of adequate observational data.”

By no means was this expressed climate agnosticism by the NAS rare during that particular time period. Scientists routinely published papers in journals in the 1970s and 1980s that acknowledged a lack of understanding with regard to the main causes of climate change or the inherent limitations in climate modeling. In fact, some scientists described projections of future temperature changes in response to human activities an exercise in “the blind leading the blind.”

Other scientists acknowledged that it is “practically impossible to isolate simple cause-and-effect relationships in the internal workings of the earth-atmosphere-ocean system” or, succinctly, that we “should admit at once that we do not know what are the basic causes of climatic change“.

However, by the 1990s, or with the advent of the the United Nations issuing the first two IPCC reports (1990, 1995), these we-don’t-know concessions by scientists had begun to dissipate. Expressing uncertainty or doubt about the dangerous climatic effects of carbon dioxide has become increasingly taboo.

Even the editor of the journal Science (Marcia McNutt) has herself recently (2015) written that, with regard to human-caused global warming, “the time for debate has ended.”  (Link: here). The uncertainty, doubt, and skepticism have essentially been shooed away, which has paved the way for “scary scenarios” to potentially “capture the public’s imagination” — just as Dr. Stephen Schneider had proposed.

With this contrast between then and now in mind, perhaps it would be interesting to read what scientists used to commonly write in scientific journals with regard to the immense uncertainties associated with climate change. Below  are several prototypical examples from the time period when expressing a lack of understanding about the causes of climate change was still considered acceptable — or before scientific advocacy was normalized.

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1. Barrett, 1978

In particular, detection of an anthropogenic influence through statistical analysis alone requires a long run of data of good quality and careful attention to measures of significance. It is most important to avoid the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy that a trend of a few years’ duration or less, following some change in human activities, can be attributed to that change even when no sound physical causal relationship is evident. … While one must presume that natural climatic fluctuations result from the operations of the laws of physics and chemistry, it is practically impossible to isolate simple cause-and-effect relationships in the internal workings of the earth-atmosphere-ocean system. This is because all the processes are interconnected by multiple nonlinear positive and negative feedbacks.

2. Fletcher, 1968

What Causes the Global Climate to Change? No one has been able to explain why such climatic variations occur. They seem to be associated with variations in the vigor of the whole global atmospheric circulation, but why the global system varies is still a mystery. It follows that the fundamental problem in the study of climatic change is the development of a quantitative understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere; and, since three-fourths of the heat which forces the atmospheric motion comes by way of the ocean surface, a quantitative understanding of oceanic heat transport and ocean/atmosphere heat exchange is especially vital. … An adequate theoretical basis has not as yet been developed for explaining the interactions of the global heat engine and for accounting for observed changes in climate. Causal relationships have been obscured by the multitude of factors operating and problems for investigation have often been ill-defined.  … [T]here are so many variables and degrees of freedom in the global system that specific cause and effect estimates in this regard are very uncertain.

3. Hare, 1971

It is discouraging to have to start by admitting that future changes in the atmosphere may be the result of the inherent instability of the atmospheric circulation, and not of environmental changes that we can detect, and perhaps control. … Explaining past climates and predicting future climates are complementary processes.  As Murray Mitchell pointed out, also at Boulder (Mitchell, 1968), we are miles away from explaining the past, whose record is so blurred that there remain open “many degrees of freedom for the construction of altogether new hypotheses.”   He laid stress where I shall place it today — on the view that explaining climatic variation must rest on an adequate theory of existing climate.  Until we can argue backwards and forwards in time from such a secure foundation we shall continue to be the blind led by the blind.

4. Gilchrist, 1983

Unlike some other pollutants introduced into the atmosphere by Man, carbon dioxide is naturally occurring and non-toxic. The direct effect of increased concentrations may be beneficial notably because it will tend to increase the rate of photosynthesis in plants. On the other hand, there may be deleterious effects through its influence on climate but this is still unproven and we cannot be certain whether, on a global scale, it will on the whole be harmful or beneficial. … The problem of determining the effect of increased carbon dioxide on climate is difficult, the more so because there are some essential aspects of the physical basis of climate that are not well understood

5. Catchpole, 1973

Sellers (1965, p. 198) regretted that while ‘the literature has been saturated with theories of climatic change . . . uncertainty is the only thing that is certain’. Crowe (1971, p. 471) conceded that although palaeoclimatology asks straightforward questions about the nature and causes of climatic changes, ‘the answers still largely elude us’. In the same year Flint (1971, p. 789) appealed that we should ‘admit at once that we do not know what are the basic causes of climatic change’.

6. Stewart and Glantz, 1985

[I]n the early 1970s the prevailing view was that the earth was moving toward a new ice age. Many articles appeared in the scientific literature as well as in the popular press speculating about the impact on agriculture of a 1-2°C cooling. … The causes of global climate change remain in dispute. Existing theories of climate, atmospheric models, and actuarial experience are inadequate to meet the needs of policymakers for information about future climate. In the long run, research may lead to reliable forecasts of climate. For the present, however, policymakers have no recourse but to heed expert judgments – subjective and contradictory though they may be – about future world climate and its effects on agriculture and other sectors of the economy.

7. Roberts, 1975

There are, of course, many different ideas about the origins of climate change. Many factors have been looked upon as potential causes: vulcanism, sea surface temperature changes, changes in CO2 content of the atmosphere, oscillations in Arctic ice and sea depth, and atmospheric turbidity changes due to manmade dust or wind-blown soil and sand. These theories, including the solar one, share the difficulty that they have not yet reached the stage where convincing experimental verification is possible.

8. Shutts and Green, 1972

Many theories about climate change are essentially untestable, but we can still develop a consistent model based on understandable physics—in fact the data cannot be interpreted without one. Shutts and Green believe there is some fundamental defect in all present models: it could be something physically improbable, like an unreasonable effect of tiny solar variations. More likely there is a fundamental lack in our appreciation of how very interactive systems behave.

9. Chaston, 1980

Much of the Northern Hemisphere experienced a dramatic upsurge in snowfall during the 1970s as compared with the previoius decades. … Whether the “Snowy Seventies” heralded the dawn of a major cooling trend or is merely a temporary anomaly is highly debatable.  One may ask fifty meteorologists for his/her opinion on climatic change and inevitably receive fifty differing opinions.  This is why meteorology is so exciting: even with relatively advanced computer programs and the complete set of equations of motion of the atmosphere, we are far from truly understanding the mechanics of Mother Nature.

10. Mac Cracken, 1982

Several recent studies have contended that the increase in CO2 concentrations since the start of the Industrial Revolution has led to identifiable climatic warming. Significant approximations and simplifications have had to be made, however, in order to isolate this supposed CO2 effect from the comparably large latitudinal and temporal temperature variations that may have been due to changes in volcanism, solar variability, other potentially identifiable causal factors, or natural fluctuations. To overcome the resulting uncertainties, data bases must be improved, diagnostic analyses and numerical models must more completely treat the spatial and temporal patterns and phase relations of the expected changes, and a careful search for a set of CO2-specific climate modifications must be undertaken.

11. Schneider, 1974

Unfortunately, knowledge of climate theory is still too primitive to trace reliably climatic cause and effect links, and therefore it is argued that large-scale climate modification schemes appear irresponsible.

12. Dyson, 1977

The magnitude of this negative feed-back effect of atmospheric CO2 upon itself depends on many ecological interactions which have yet to be disentangled. The effect could be negligibly small, or it could be as large as 3 x 109 tons of carbon per yr. In summary, there is insufficient evidence to decide whether the carbon content of the biosphere has decreased, increased or remained stationary in response to the manifold human activities of recent decades. There exists a huge literature attempting to assess or to prognosticate the effects of the increasing atmospheric CO2 on the climate of the earth. Such attempts are useful and necessary, but they run into formidable technical difficulties. Even the mean global temperature rise caused by a given quantity of CO2 is subject to great uncertainty: and the effects of CO2 on local and time-variable phenomena (which may be crucially important to agriculture and other human activities) are more uncertain still.

13. Oerlemans, 1982

Conclusion: This estimate is subject to a number of uncertainties. First of all, opinions about the effect of an increasing CO2 content of the atmosphere differ widely. It is generally accepted that a warming has to be expected, but its magnitude is subject to much debate. Even if we did know the effect of CO2 on climate, things would not be much clearer. The global carbon cycle is poorly understood and we are not yet able to predict (given the anthropogenic CO2 input) the content of the atmosphere for next centuries.

14. Meier, 1983

Should we expect a “threat of disaster” (Mercer, 1978) with sea level and climate in the next 50 years? The obvious answer is no; the complex ice/ocean/atmosphere system is not sufficiently understood. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be robust to rapid oceanographic or atmospheric forcing (Whillans, 1978). Unfortunately, we are not even sure whether its grounding lines are currently advancing or retreating, and we certainly do not understand how surges are triggered. Until such understanding is at hand, and atmospheric-oceanographic circulation models are developed that perform well at high latitudes, we can only watch what is happening.

15. Sachs, 1976

This test shows that patterns of climatic change can be resolved with increasingly greater detail but that ‘first causes’ of climatic change remain elusive.

16. Bryant, 1987

Conclusions: The scenario of a CO2-warming globe contains many uncertainties. The warming of the atmosphere is not an established fact, and even if it was there may be no need to invoke increased atmospheric CO2 or other ‘greenhouse’ gases as the cause when such warmings have been a part of our temperature time series historically.  … A common factor underpinning our uncertainties about a CO2-warming atmospheric scenario is that the Earth is not covered adequately with enough data points to evaluate the scenario conclusively.  Even where geophysical time series are available, they are clouded by the inherent fluctuations of their variances.

 

University of Deleware Penguin Panic Paper Exposed As Flawed… Used “Tricks”

Antarctic climate models fail to handle natural variability: Adélie penguins continue to appear

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

On June 29, 2016 the University of Delaware (UD) unleashed a climate penguin panic with its press release:

Penguins and climate change:
UD scientists report projected response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change

It’s a big question: how is climate change in Antarctica affecting Adélie penguins? Climate has influenced the distribution patterns of Adélie penguins across Antarctica for millions of years. The geologic record tells us that as glaciers expanded and covered Adélie breeding habitats with ice, penguin colonies were abandoned. When the glaciers melted during warming periods, this warming positively affected the Adélie penguins, allowing them to return to their rocky breeding grounds. But now, University of Delaware scientists and colleagues report that this beneficial warming may have reached its tipping point. In a paper published today in Scientific Reports, the researchers project that approximately 30 percent of current Adélie colonies may be in decline by 2060 and approximately 60 percent may be in decline by 2099.”

That’s absolutely bitter. More than half of the penguins will be dead by 2099. In earlier times they benefitted from climate warming, but today heat is threatening to wipe them out. How has this come to be? The press release continues:

It is only in recent decades that we know Adélie penguins population declines are associated with warming, which suggests that many regions of Antarctica have warmed too much and that further warming is no longer positive for the species,” said the paper’s lead author Megan Cimino, who earned her doctoral degree at UD in May.”

Antarctica has warmed unusually over the past decades?

Unfortunately that is completely wrong, see here. Precisely on this subject a new paper by Jones et al. 2016 in Nature Climate Change tells us:

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. However, most observed trends are not unusual when compared with Antarctic paleoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability likely overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

Perhaps the penguin researchers should first take a better look at this paper as soon as it gets published officially. It becomes necessary to explain why the Adélie-penguins are even alive today because the Antarctic Peninsula was warmer than today many times over the past thousands of years. By the way, the last warm phase in Antarctica occurred as an effect of the Medieval Warm Period.

When one looks more closely at the University of Delaware paper, the tricks the penguin researches are using quickly becomes clear. For assessing the danger, a middle of the pack climate model scenario was not used. No, instead the absolute most grim model by the name of RCP 8.5 was used. It just could not be worse. It’s like being sure you’ll have a car accident on the way to work today.

We at this blog constantly have to make official complaints when the media simply take over press releases without checking, and thus promote climate alarm. Finally, there is some good news: It appears people have in fact gotten more careful, as a search for the report turned up no result. That’s very praiseworthy. The sole exception is the Internet platform wetter.de, who found it too much to resist – and took the bait.

 

The Poor Get The Shaft – Forced To Pick Up 7 Billion Euro Power Tab Of German Industry!

Here’s more proof that Germany’s scheme to shift over to renewable energy sources, the so-called Energiewende, is backfiring – this time socially.

German climate alarmist site “Klimaretter” (Climate Rescuer) writes here that Germany’s Energiewende has been unfair to consumers, but a real bonanza for some large power consumers.

Claiming competition disadvantages (and they are indeed real) big power consumers have cajoled policymakers to grant them exemptions from having to pay the renewable energy feed-in surcharges – now at more than 6 euro-cents a kilowatt-hour. The result is that these have ended up being passed on to the poor consumers, who are forced to pick up the huge tab in addition to paying their own surcharge fees.

Klimaretter writes:

Energy-intensive companies in Germany were exempted from paying 3.3 billion euros in 2014 and 3.4 billion euros in 2015 within the scope of the EEG Renewable Energy Feed-In Act.”

That’s about 7 billion – over the past two years, only.

It is estimated that some 2000 German companies were granted exemptions from paying these feed-in charges. One green politician, Julia Verlinden, commented that the way things are now, large power consuming companies are being rewarded for consuming more power. She told klimaretter that “companies even receive incentives to waste as much energy as possible in order to profit from extra discounts.”

In fact Co2 emissions by the German aluminium industry has risen from 733,000 tonnes in 2010 to 821,000 tonnes in 2014, klimaretter reports.

Verlinden adds:

Small businesses, private households or public services have to pay for the gifts to industry.”

This is yet another way the Energiewende has become the largest bottom-to-top wealth redistribution in the history of the planet. Currently German consumers are being burdened with over 25 billion euros annually to subsidize the Energiewende. The big profiteers are banks, Big Wind & Solar, and wealthy land and property owners.

For the extra billions of euros annually, the poor consumers have content themselves with a few theoretical hundredths of a degree less climate warming by 2050.

 

(All White) German ARD Television Jabs At GOP – For Lack Of Ethnic Diversity!

ARD German public television board has zero non-whites in nation that has millions of people of other ethnic origin.

ARD Vorstand

Photos: ARD, Fair Use.

Yesterday I happened to watch Germany’s ARD 8 pm news, and was a bit surprised by its reporting on the GOP Convention.

According to Wikipedia, the ARD is the “world’s largest public broadcaster with a budget of €6.5 billion and 20,616.5 employees”.

The ARD 8 pm news is in fact such an institution, that one of the first unwritten rules one learns when moving to the country is that you do not call anyone at their home between 8 and 8:15 pm because you risk disturbing them as they loyally watch their ARD evening news.

Over the years, however, the ARD has become glaringly one-sided politically, and an avid purveyor of political correctness. It can be argued that elements of elitism have long seeped into leading network heads over time, as is the case with much of the established German media.

Lately all-out Trump and GOP bashing has become a full-time sport not only at the ARD, but throughout the massive German public media complex. Hillary Clinton, the scandal-fraught Democrat candidate, gets a free pass.

White network labels Republicans racist?

What caught my eye yesterday was the degree of zealousness and lengths that the network went to, to portray the RNC in Cleveland as racially tinged, telling viewers near the 12-minute mark that only among the “overly white event” only 18 of the over 2472 delegates are black (skipping the fact that a number of minorities made speeches at the convention, and that the party in fact is ethnically diverse, i.e. see the original GOP candidate field).

Grotesquely distorted, blind journalism

The ARD’s portrayal of the GOP was a carefully crafted and designed to grotesquely distort and discredit the true spirit of the party.

As Germany takes in immigrants of other cultures and countries, and as the country over the past decades has changed to one of having a greatly increased share of minorities, one might think that by now, in the year 2016, at least the country’s flagship media board of directors, especially at the flagship ARD, would reflect the public it serves. But looking at their own boards, we see it is virtually all snow-white.

Of the 8 ARD top board members, see image above, zero are non-white:

The same is true of their other supervisory boards, whose structures I’m not going to get into. Here we see pure vanilla.

Things are not any better at ZDF, the other leading network.

Or at renowned centre-left weekly Der Spiegel.

In the USA any major organization of that scale with such a lack of diversity would have had their pants sued off long ago.

German media far less diversified than GOP

So what could the GOP possibly learn from the ARD on ethnic representation and diversity? Nothing….except for what one should not do. And what excuse does Germany’s media have for employing so few minorities? Silence.

It’s of low human character to go around accusing others of a practice that you yourself are far more guilty of doing, and it is equally deplorable to falsely and deceptively portray the USA’s other major party as intolerant and to imply it is racist. Stunningly there even appears to be 2 members of clergy on the board here.

All white. Perhaps the ARD should rename itself to AFD

The ARD and most of German media are the very last who should be preaching others on ethnic diversity. It’s disgusting and offensive that they are attempting to cast half of the USA’s political spectrum as being tainted with racism when they themselves cannot be bothered to place any minorities on their very own boards.

Moreover, when ones looks at the boards at most major German corporations, the story is much the same. The reality is that corporate Germany, which likes to fancy itself as progressive and hip, is at least 30 years behind the USA or Scandinavia on affirmative action.

Those German institutions and organizations, who seem to like branding others as intolerant, really first need to look at themselves before passing judgement.

ARD heads can click here.

 

El Niño 2016 Now History… “La Niña Coming: The Earth Is Cooling”

La Niña is coming: the Earth is cooling!

By Schneefan.
(Translated and condensed by P. Gosselin)

The warming El Niño weather phenomenon has been history since June 2016. The cool La Niña started in mid July 2016.

The daily anomalies in sea surface temperatures (SSTA) in the main Niño region 3.4 are now updated. In mid July it is in the La Niña zone at -0.74°K:

Der Plot zeigt die Entwicklung der täglichen SSTA zum international üblichen und von der WMO empfohlenen modernen Klimamittel 1981-2010 im maßgeblichen Niño-Gebiet 3.4 mit den Daten von NOAA/CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System). Die SSTA lagen bisher mit bis zu -0,4 K knapp oberhalb der La Niña-Werte von -0,5 K und kälter, haben aber Mitte Juli die -0,5 K erreicht und unterschritten. Der Wert beträgt am 19.7.2016 = -0,74 K. Quelle: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

The plot above shows the daily SSTA with respect to the international climate mean of 1981-2010 in the main Niño region 3.4 with data from NOAA/CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System). The SSTA reached and dipped below the -0.5°K mark in mid July. The latest value was -0.74°K (July 19, 2016). Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/.

The following chart shows the current La Niña extending from the coast of Peru to the international dateline (180°):

Der CDAS-Index zeigt die täglichen globalen Abweichungen der SST. Mitte Juli 2016 schlängelt sich La Niña (blaue Farben) bereits gut erkennbar über weite Strecken des äquatorialen Pazifiks. Quelle: wie vor

The cold La Niña (blue at the equator) is shown developing. Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/.

After a record warm February 2016 with an anomaly of +0.83°K using the unaltered UAH satellite data, the global temperature of the lower troposphere centered at 1500 meters fell by 0.49 K in June to +0.34°K, see the following chart:

Die UAH-Grafik zeigt die monatlichen Abweichungen (blaue Linie) der globalen Temperaturen der unteren Troposphäre (TLT) sowie den laufenden Dreizehnmonatsdurchschnitt (rote Linie) von Dezember 1998 bis Mai 2016. Wegen eines kräftigen global zeitversetzt wärmenden El Niño-Ereignisses ab Sommer 2015 gab es auch bei den unverfälschten Datensätzen von UAH nach Monats-Rekordwerten von November 2015 bis März 2016 nun im Mai mit einer Abweichung von 0,71 K einen deutlichen Rückgang um 0,36 K auf 0,34 K gegenüber dem Vormonaten Mai und April. Quelle: wie vor

UAH chart depicting monthly lower troposphere temperature anomaly (blue curve), along the 13-month smoothed moving average (red curve). Original text: “This gives a 2-month temperature fall of -0.37 deg. C, which is the second largest in the 37+ year satellite record…the largest was -0.43 deg. C in Feb. 1988. In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56 deg. C, just edging out -0.55 deg. C in June 1998 (also an El Nino weakening year).“ Source: UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2016: +0.34 deg. C.

Finally, after months of disagreement, the major ENSO models are now almost in full agreement that La Niña conditions will start to take hold this summer, now that there is already a deviation of -0.7°K. See: http://www.bom.gov.au/Pacific-Ocean.

The ENSO model CFSv2 of the NOAA again looks totally confused, as it did in May. Today the ENSO monthly prognosis shows a broad scatter of +0.4°K to -2.2°K for January 2017, see following chart. That means: Nobody knows!

Der Plot zeigt die CFSv2-ENSO-Prognose von NOAA vom 17.7.2016 für die monatlichen SSTA im maßgeblichen Nino-Gebiet 3.4 bis April 2017. Das Modell scheint wieder mal sehr verwirrt, weil die Streuung der aktuellen acht Prognosen (blaue Linien) z.B. im Januar 2017 von +0,4 K bis -2,2 K reicht. Quelle: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/CFSv2SST8210.html

The plot shows the CFSv2-ENSO prognosis from the NOAA July 17, 2016, for the monthly SSTA in the Nino region 3.4 up to April 2017. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html.

The energy content of the water down to a depth of 300 m at the equatorial Pacific continues to show a negative anomaly for July 2016 at -1.0°K and thus has been in the cold La Niña range of under -0.5°K.

Der Plot stellt den Verlauf der Temperaturanomalien bis zu 300 Meter unter Wasser im äquatorialen Pazifik dar. Die kräftigen positiven Abweichungen der warmen (orange) Downwelling-Phase einer äquatorialen Kelvinwelle haben Ende Oktober/Anfang November 2015 ihren Höhepunkt erreicht und gehen bis Mitte Juli 2016 in einer kalten Upwelling-Phase um mehr als 3 K deutlich bis um -1,0 K (blau) zurück: El Niño ist tot – La Niña kommt! Quelle: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

El Niño is dead – La Niña is coming! Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/enso.shtml.

It is therefore not expected that a significant cooling will take place in July this year. Dr. Roy Spencer (UAH) has already pointed that out here:

Just remember, the temperature anomaly can also temporarily rebound for a month, as it did in late 1998.”

However, it is already clear from the unaltered satellite data of the first half of this year: 2016 will not be a record warm year.

 

Energy Experts Warn German Renewable Energy Path Tantamount To Economic Harakiri

Energy experts Jürgen Großmann and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt wrote in an opinion piece in Saturday’s hardcopy edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) that renewable energies are expensive, costing 2 to 3 times more than conventional energy.

FAZ_Gmann_Vholt

FAZ: “Worry over transition to renewable energy”

The two German experts warn that any attempt the country makes to reach the target of 45% renewable energy by the year 2025 is tantamount to economic Harakiri.

28 billion euros annually

Already Germany’s budding Energiewende is costing German consumers and businesses 28 billion euros annually, or roughly an average of 300 euros for each household. These costs are driven in part by insanely high leasing costs that wind turbine operators pay to wealthy land owners –  and subsidies paid to growers of corn for biofuel.

Storage technology “prohibitively expensive”

Großmann and Vahrenholt also remind readers storage technologies are “prohibitively expensive” and offer no solution the problem of evening out the highly volatile wind and solar supply.

Sizzling power grids

Another major problem, the two energy experts comment, are the extreme uncontrolled power surges occurring on both sunny and windy days. In such cases the operators of over-fed, sizzling grids are forced to dump surplus electricity into the power grids of neighboring countries, which has the effect of upsetting both their grids and power generation markets. Another peculiarity is that wind park operators are routinely ordered to shut down, yet are paid for the power that never gets produced. German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel once said that other countries think it’s “crazy”.

Großmann and Vahrenholt, both former top energy executives, characterize the demands made by the influential German Greens to shut down the country’s coal power plants as naïve and simply unworkable, and call plans to install large wind parks near the Baltic Sea before constructing transmission lines to take the power to markets “nonsense”.

German reductions would be wiped out in just 3 months

The economics of the German renewables project also border on insanity. Vahrenholt and Großmann remind that all the CO2 reductions that are to be made by Germany would be wiped out by China’s massive growth in just a matter of three months, making all the pain and cost for nothing. China represents 29% of the world’s CO2 emissions, Germany only a paltry 2.5%.

Vahrenholt and Großmann conclude that Germany must return to rationality by getting back on a renewable energy path that is technicaly and economically feasilble, and not one that destroys the environment and economy, as is the case currently in Germany. They point out that Great Britain, Spain, Poland, Denmark and Italy have all scaled back their renewable energy development so as to not further overburden their consumers and industry.

New Study, Scientists: “20th Century Warming Not Very Obvious In Our Reconstruction”

New Paper: China temperatures warmer during the 1700s, linked to solar, volcanic, and AMO/PDO forcing

By Kenneth Richard

A new 368-year tree ring temperature reconstruction has established that regional (China) summer temperatures were warmer than they are now (2012) during the mid-1600s and early 1700s, and that the temperature variations can be linked to variations in solar activity, volcanic forcing (cooling), and natural oceanic-atmospheric oscillations (AMO/PDO).

The authors are intent on pointing out that it is “noteworthy that 20th century warming was not very obvious in our reconstruction.”  This “noteworthy” finding is mentioned four different times in the paper.

The lack of a conspicuous 20th century warming — and the warmer periods during the 1600s and 1700s — are clearly shown in the summer temperature graph below:

China_1700_1

Annual and 11-year smoothed regional July–August mean maximum temperature reconstruction (blue and red lines, respectively); superimposed is the 11-year smoothed instrumental record (pink line).

Zhu and co-authors also do not mention CO2 as a “possible forcing mechanism” in their extensive discussion of the causes of temperature variations for the last 368 years, probably because there is little to no correlation between the decadal-scale temperature variations (warming and cooling periods) and the precipitous rise in atmospheric CO2 during the 20th and 21st centuries.

Below is a summary of the key points from the paper Zhu et al., 2016:

A 368-year maximum temperature reconstruction

During the period 1875–1955, late summer temperature fluctuated less strongly than before or thereafter. In general, the average length of cold periods was shorter than that of warm periods. The cold period of 1869–1877 was the longest and coldest cool period had a mean of 17.63°C. The longest warm period extended from 1655 to 1668, and the warmest period in AD 1719–1730 had a mean of 20.37°C. However, we should point out that the rapid warming during the 20th century was not especially obvious in our reconstructed RLST.

[S]even cold periods and three warm periods were identified during the past 368 years (Fig. 4d). All the cold periods were during the Maunder (1708–1711) or Dalton (1818– 1821, 1824–1828, 1832–1836, and 1839–1842) solar minima periods, except for the cold periods of 1765–1769 and 1869–1877 (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999), which indicated that RLST [mean maximum temperature] variations in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ] might be driven by solar activity (Fig. 7b). On the other hand, volcanic eruptions in the corresponding periods might also be a cooling factor (Fig. 7b). A longer cold period (e.g., 1820s–1840s) was interrupted by transient warming, thus forming a plurality of discontinuous short cold periods. Warm periods of 1719–1730 and 1858–1859 both had more sunspots (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999) and lower volcanic forcing (Fig. 7b). The cold (1765–1769 or 1869–1877) and warm (1655–1668) periods were highly consistent with other studies (Fig. 7).

Possible Forcing Mechanism

Accompanied by significant peaks at 60.2 and 73 years, the continuously periodicities around 49–114 years in our regional temperature reconstruction might tentatively be related to PDO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; En- field et al., 2001) as well as solar activity (Eddy, 1976; Shindell et al., 1999; Peristykh and Damon, 2003; Raspopov et al., 2004; Braun et al., 2005). The AMO was an important driver of multidecadal variations in summer climate not only in North America and western Europe (Kerr, 2000; Sutton and Hodson, 2005) but also in the East Asia (Feng and Hu, 2008; Liang et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2011, 2015; Zhu et al., 2011). The 60.2-year peak associated with AMO demonstrated that multidecadal variations in late summer temperature in the NWSP NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ]  might be controlled by AMO.

[S]ignificant multidecadal- and centennial-scale cycles of our temperature reconstruction might include the signs of solar activity, such as the Gleissberg cycles (Peristykh and Damon, 2003), Suess cycles (Braun et al., 2005), Bruckner cycles (Raspopov et al., 2004), and Schwabe cycles (Braun et al., 2005). The Maunder (ca. AD 1645–1715) and Dalton (ca. AD 1790–1840) solar minima periods were generally associated with temperature depressions (Eddy, 1976), and the Damon (ca. AD 1890– 1920) solar maximum period occurred in a relatively warm period, which further confirmed that late summer temperature variation in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ]  might be driven by solar activity (Fig. 7b).

Conclusion

Overall, the RLST [mean maximum temperature] variability in the NWSP [northwestern Sichuan Plateau, China ]  might be associated with global land–sea atmospheric circulation (e.g., ENSO, PDO, or AMO) as well as solar and volcanic forcing.

 

“I Could Throw Up”…”Wind Power Mafia” Clandestinely Destroys Rare Stork Nests To Clear Way For Turbines!

German real environmental activist Andreas Kieling here at Facebook has posted a video showing the gruesome and sickening destruction of birdlife by windmills and tells of an alleged premeditated criminal dismantling of rare black stork nests by the “wind power mafia”.


The video is in German, but the pictures are of universal language.

At the start of the video Kieling shows 3 birds and 2 bats of various endangered species that he and his dog allegedly found in just 15 minutes at one single turbine. “That’s unbelievable,” Kieling announces. He is visibly disturbed by this.

The high profile activist believes that the number of birds killed is likely much higher, because many of the victims are soon dragged off by scavenging animals such as foxes during the night.

The birds have little chance against the wind turbines, as the blade tips travel at speeds of up to 270 km/hr. At the -3.15 mark:

That means a bird that flies in the vicinity underestimates this speed and gets cut to pieces, as is the case with this one.”

He adds that for bats it is not even necessary to be hit because the under-pressure created by the blade swooshing by causes the bats’ lungs to burst.

Also at the -2.38 mark Kieling explains that predatory birds also have no chance because they often fly with their heads looking down in search of prey, and so never see the high speed turbine blades. They end up getting “shredded”.

What’s really bad is that wind developers are planning even more, larger turbines close by.

“Wind power mafia” destroying stork nests

If things were not bad enough, Kieling tells of stork nests only 1000 meters away that were criminally dismantled, likely by the “wind power mafia” in order to clear the way for the new turbines. At the -2:05 mark he shows a large oak tree that was allegedly once home to a black stork nest for more than 40 years. He explains:

Suddenly the nest disappeared without a trace. The same happened to the secondary nest. The storks often have two nests. It was about 800 meters away. Also disappeared without a trace. The wind park is just about a kilometer away. And it is probably the reason for this.”

“I’m so angry I could throw up”

Kieling explains how storks like to build their nests on large trees located near streams, not up in the tree’s crown but on the fork of a large branch. The nests he says can grow to weights of up to 500 kg over 20 to 30 years, and thus the branch and nest can eventually collapse under the weight. At the -1.00 mark he explains:

But under this tree you’d find some remnants of the nest or the broken branch, and this is precisely not the case. Not for this tree, and not for the other tree. And in the neighboring town where I live, Ahrenberg, it’s the same – there’s been a black stork’s nest since a long time. This one here was the last black stork nest in the North Eifel area. In the meantime the number of storks has fortunately gone up again. But I ask myself just how concealed and hidden do these birds have to live before they aren’t bothered. What is happening here is criminal. This was done by professionals. In the forest, under the tree, there are no traces of anything. The tree branch fork is very much intact, but the nest is gone. The nest was dismantled. Likely it was done using aluminum ladders and the nest material was carefully scattered in the surrounding area in the forest. At the other nest the exact same thing. I’m so angered; I could throw up. What can you do – it’s a battle against the wind turbines.”

In the meantime not a peep of protest coming from WWF or other high profile environmental groups. Kieling’s frustration and sense of desperation are understandable. We can only wish him the best in the fight against this crony “wind mafia” and the deplorable politicians who look away.

 

German Power Giant RWE Risks Becoming “Largest Bankruptcy In German Business History”!

Germany’s “Energiewende” (transition to renewable energies) is threatening to cause widespread economic havoc.

Not only have almost every major solar manufacturing company in Germany gone bankrupt, leaving economic blight in its wake, now traditional power giants, which hire tens of thousands of skilled workers, are threatened by bankruptcy.

Today German flagship daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reports here that the country’s largest power company, RWE, now faces bankruptcy in the wake of the post Fukushima Energiewende, where the German government forced the immediate shutdown of nuclear power plants in a panicked reaction to the Japanese disaster.

For RWE this meant an immediate shutdown of some 25% of its assets. The FAZ writes that since Fukushima, RWE has lost a whopping 70% of its value.

The situation is hardly better at competitor E On, whose share price has fallen 58% since Fukushima.

The title of the FAZ article is “The last days of RWE” and writes that “Germany’s largest power producer has become a bankruptcy candidate“.

Currently RWE has “45 billion euros in long-term liabilities, 8 times its equity“, the FAZ reports.

The FAZ also writes that its British subsidiary company, which represents more than 20% of the company’s sales, is bleeding money as missteps resulted in hundreds of thousands of customers running from the power giant.

Another huge problem are that conventional power plants are losing money due to an oversupply from wind and solar power. The FAZ writes:

The rash installation of wind and solar power has led to an oversupply on the power market, with the wholesale price per megawatt-hour of electricity dropping by one half since Fukushima. The RWE management is thus implementing one savings plan after the another. Even the urgently needed investments in wind and solar energy have been slashed.”

The massive financial woes of the power giant could end up being “the largest bankruptcy in German business history“, reports the FAZ.

But in the end RWE is a power company that is to big to fail, and so the FAZ writes that if push comes to shove, the state will have to intervene and bail out the company. Otherwise there would be “chaos on the power market“. Once again the lowly consumers would be asked to reach ever deeper into their pockets.

That’s how the socialist system works in Europe: Socialize the pain, privatize the profits.

 

New Paper: Lower Arctic Sea Level Rise Estimated At Only 1.5 Millimeters Per Year!

A brand new paper is out on sea level, and guess what?

The findings show that sea level is going nowhere fast and that in the Arctic it is rising only half as fast as the much IPCC ballyhooed satellite altimetry measured 3.3 mm/year and accelerating rise.

Authors: Peter Limkilde Svendsen, Ole B. Andersen, Allan Aasbjerg Nielsen
Accepted manuscript online: 13 July 2016Full publication history
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC011685View/save citation

The paper’s abstract follows, with my emphasis added:

Stable reconstruction of Arctic sea level for the 1950–2010 period

Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is generally difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of both tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. Here a strategy to achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from 1950 to today is presented. This work is based on the combination of tide gauge records and a new 20-year reprocessed satellite altimetry derived sea level pattern. Hence the study is limited to the area covered by satellite altimetry (68ºN and 82ºN). It is found that timestep cumulative reconstruction as suggested by Church and White (2000) may yield widely variable results and is difficult to stabilize due to the many gaps in both tide gauge and satellite data. A more robust sea level reconstruction approach is to use datum adjustment of the tide gauges in combination with satellite altimetry, as described by (Ray and Douglas, 2011). In this approach, a datum-fit of each tide gauges is used and the method takes into account the entirety of each tide gauge record. This makes the Arctic sea level reconstruction much less prone to drifting.

From our reconstruction, we found that the Arctic mean sea level trend is around 1.5 mm +/- 0.3 mm/y for the period 1950 to 2010, between 68ºN and 82ºN. This value is in good agreement with the global mean trend of 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/y over the same period as found by Church and White (2004).”

No wonder global warming con-man Al Gore had no qualms about buying a beachfront home.