Wind Turbines Crashing Down In Germany Amid Brisk Opposition And Even Sabotage!

Wind turbines are ugly, litter the landscape, endanger wildlife, generate erratically, destabilize power grids and even cause health problems. They also have a habit of coming apart and self destructing — thus creating a hazard to persons and property.

The Saxony online daily Sächsische Zeitung (SZ) here reports how a wind turbine collapsed near Leisnig just days ago. An investigation revealed how one of three blades failed catastrophically, thus creating a huge imbalance that caused the tower to buckle 15 meters above the ground and led to the structure to come crashing down. The site reports:

Through the force of the impact, the gearbox unit was driven almost 2 meters into the earth.”

The following short video surveys the damage. Note how one blade had totally come apart.

Earlier in December, Germany’s BILD daily reported how in the Mecklenburg Pommeria town of Süderholz a wind turbine tower snapped in half and crashed to the ground. An investigation is now underway. Süderholz mayor Alexander Benkert ordered the other remaining turbines to be thoroughly inspected.

Bild reports the tower simply snapped 25 meters up but that no one was injured.

Collapsing even when not in operation

In neighboring Denmark one wind turbine shows us that turbines can come apart even when they are not operating. Danish vejr.tv2.dk television site here reports how the blade of one turbine simply “tore off” during a recent storm.

Also here the English Manchester Evening News here reports how a recent storm ripped off all three blades from a turbine one afternoon in England, almost killing a man who happened to be taking his dog for a walk.

Mounting opposition to ugly, unreliable wind power projects

The seemingly collapse-prone turbines are likely yet just another reason on a long list why people now resist them. Once welcome and viewed as a source of clean energy, huge protests are now organizing and mobilizing against wind park projects. Germany’s online nordkurier.de here reports how an online survey found only 15% were in favor of installing more turbines in the Uckermark region.

In the Rhine-Main region, the Frankfurter Neue Presse (FNP) reports on how authorities in Darmstadt recently rejected the building of wind turbines on the Taunuskamm mountain, citing “groundwater protection” needs. The local Green Party, of all people, fumed at the rejection.

Sabotage

The resistance to wind energy in Germany has grown to such an extent that some people are now sabotaging them. In Fulda a person, or persons, broke into a tower and destroyed the electrical gear, causing the unit to halt. The wind park operator suspects wind energy opponents.

First the suspect(s) had on two earlier occasions stopped the turbine by simply pressing the emergency STOP button. In the third attempt on December 26 the switchbox was opened and its contents destroyed. The online Fuldaer Zeitung writes at the end of the article:

Indeed the opposition against further wind turbines in the Eiterfeld area was large in the past.”

Wind energy in Germany is no longer welcome.

 

Recent Study Shows Climate Models Still Crude, Poorly Weighted

Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt here bring our attention on a recent paper on the impact of “sea smell” on climate. Below is the press release in English.

Under the bottom line: Climate models are a very long way from being reliable. They are still at the primitive stages.
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Impact of sea smell overestimated by present climate models

Most comprehensive study on the atmospheric oxidation of the natural climatic gas dimethyl sulfide published

The formation of sulfur dioxide from the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and, thus, of cooling clouds over the oceans seems to be overvalued in current climate models. Photo: Tilo Arnhold, TROPOS

The formation of sulfur dioxide from the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and, thus, of cooling clouds over the oceans seems to be overvalued in current climate models. Photo: Tilo Arnhold, TROPOS

Leipzig. The formation of sulfur dioxide from the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and, thus, of cooling clouds over the oceans seems to be overvalued in current climate models. This concludes scientists from the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) from a model study on the effects of DMS on atmospheric chemistry. Until now, models considering only the oxidation in the gas phase describe merely the oxidation pathway and neglect important pathways in the aqueous phase of the atmosphere, writes the team in the journal PNAS. This publication contains until now the most comprehensive mechanistic study on the multiphase oxidation of this compound. The results have shown that in order to improve the understanding of the atmospheric chemistry and its climate effects over the oceans, a more detailed knowledge about the multiphase oxidation of DMS and its oxidation products is necessary. Furthermore, it is also needed to increase the accuracy of climate prediction.

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is formed by microorganisms and is, for example, also part of human breath odor. However, it is more pleasant to remember as the typical smell of the sea. DMS represents the most common natural sulfur compound emitted to the atmosphere. Major contributors are oceans, which make up around 70 % of Earth’s surface. DMS is formed by phytoplankton and then released from the seawater. In the atmosphere, DMS oxidizes to sulfuric acid (H2SO4) via dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Sulfuric acid can form new cloud nuclei, from which new cloud droplets can emerge. Hence, marine clouds will be visually brightened, which influences the radiative effect of clouds and thus Earth’s climate. Therefore, the understanding and quantification of these chemical processes in the atmosphere is of high importance for the knowledge of the natural climate effect.

The oxidation process of DMS has already been investigated in various model studies – albeit without accurate considered aqueous-phase chemistry. In order to close these mechanistic gaps, scientists of TROPOS have developed a comprehensive multiphase chemical mechanism (“Chemical Aqueous Phase Radical Mechanism DMS Module 1.0”). This mechanism was coupled to a comprehensive gas-phase (MCMv3.2) and aqueous-phase mechanism (CAPRAM) and applied with the SPACCIM model. The SPACCIM model was developed at TROPOS and is, due to the detailed and combined description of microphysical and chemical processes in aerosols and clouds, particularly suitable for complex studies on atmospheric multiphase processes.

As most important outcome, the new model results showed that: “The processes in the aqueous phase significantly reduce the amount of sulfur dioxide and increase the amount of methanesulfonic acid (MSA). In earlier models, there was a gap between the projected values in the model and measurements. Now, the scientists have been able to clarify this contradiction and thus confirm the importance of the aqueous phase for the atmospheric oxidation of dimethyl sulfide and its products such as MSA”, reports Dr. Andreas Tilgner of TROPOS.

The results show that the role of DMS in Earth’s climate is still not sufficiently understood – despite many global model studies. “Our simulations indicate that the increased DMS emissions lead to higher aerosol particle mass loads but not necessarily to a higher number of particles or cloud droplets. The modeling results are important to understand the climate processes between ocean and atmosphere. In addition, geoengineering ideas are constantly being discussed, which are hoping for more cooling clouds by fertilizing the ocean”, explains Prof. Hartmut Herrmann from TROPOS. However, this study suggests that the production of sulfur dioxide is less pronounced and the effects on the back-reflection effect of the clouds are lower than expected. Therefore, the corresponding geoengineering approaches could be less effective than assumed. Tilo Arnhold


Publication:

Erik Hans Hoffmann, Andreas Tilgner, Roland Schrödner, Peter Bräuer, Ralf Wolke, and Hartmut Herrmann (2016): An advanced modeling study on the impacts and atmospheric implications of multiphase dimethyl sulfide chemistry. PNAS; 113 (42) 11776-11781, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1606320113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606320113  


Further Information:

Prof. Hartmut Herrmann, Dr. Andreas Tilgner, Dr. Ralf Wolke; Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS); Tel. +49-341-2717-7024, -7178, -7054
https://www.tropos.de/institut/ueber-uns/mitarbeitende/hartmut-herrrmann/
https://www.tropos.de/institut/ueber-uns/mitarbeitende/andreas-tilgner/
https://www.tropos.de/institut/ueber-uns/mitarbeitende/ralf-wolke/
or Tilo Arnhold, TROPOS public relation, Tel. +49-341-2717-7189, http://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/  


Links:

Multiphase Modelling https://www.tropos.de/en/institute/departments/atmospheric-chemistry/multiphase-modeling/multiphase-modelling/
Chemical Aqueous Phase Radical Mechanism (CAPRAM) http://projects.tropos.de/capram/
SPectral Aerosol Cloud Chemistry Interaction Model (SPACCIM) https://www.tropos.de/forschung/grossprojekte-infrastruktur-technologie/technologie-am-tropos/numerische-modellierung/spaccim/
Surface of the oceans affects climate more than thought (press release, 30 Sep 2015) https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/details/surface-of-the-oceans-affects-climate-more-than-thought/

The Leibniz Association connects 88 independent research institutions that range in focus from the natural, engineering and environmental sciences via economics, spatial and social sciences to the humanities. Leibniz institutes address issues of social, economic and ecological relevance. They conduct knowledge-driven and applied basic research, maintain scientific infrastructure and provide research-based services. The Leibniz Association identifies focus areas for knowledge transfer to policy-makers, academia, business and the public. Leibniz institutions collaborate intensively with universities – in the form of “Leibniz ScienceCampi” (thematic partnerships between university and non-university research institutes), for example – as well as with industry and other partners at home and abroad. They are subject to an independent evaluation procedure that is unparalleled in its transparency. Due to the  importance of the institutions for the country as a whole, they are funded jointly by the Federation and the Länder, employing some 18,500 individuals, including 9,300 researchers. The entire budget of all the institutes is approximately 1.7 billion EUR. http://www.leibniz-gemeinschaft.de/en/home/

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PS: NTZ wishes everyone a Happy New Year!

Widespread Siberian Cold, Area As Big As Half The USA Now Under 40° Below

I keep hearing how the Arctic is warmer than normal, and so it’s a sure sign of “global warming”.

Yet I came across a chart earlier today showing conditions over Siberia, which of course is a vast region. What’s interesting is the extent and sheer depth of the cold that has gripped this area:

siberia-cold-31dec2016

Chart clipped from: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=204.17,41.87,446/loc=138.342,52.952

I roughly outlined the lower 48 states in the above chart (right) and compared it to the size of the dark rose area (-40°F and colder) over Siberia (left). Here we see that this area is at least enough to cover half of the lower US 48 states. When you go over the region with your mouse you find many areas under 60°F below. A couple of locations showed -70°F! Certainly no global warming there.

What does it tell us? Most likely if you combined both the Arctic and Siberia, you’d end up with a mean temperature that is about normal. Indeed the globe is currently just a couple of tenths of a degree C above normal. That’s it. That’s what all the fuss is all about. 95% hysteria.

Some people may not realize it, but the North Pole is in fact a rather small area, and so to claim that it being “really hot” this year is a sign of global warming is just fake science.

The unfortunate thing is that no one lives there, and so no one is able to enjoy the warmer than normal temperatures happening this winter.

What’s unfortunate is that people do live in Siberia, and right now these people aren’t happy about the extra-severe conditions, and would certainly welcome a bit of that “Arctic warming”.

Veteran Meteorologist Warns Europe Winter To Make “Global Headlines”…”Tremendous Amounts Of Snow”!

A couple of days ago I reported here how Joe Bastardi warned that Europe would soon be turning cold and wintry. Well, he hasn’t backed off at all from that forecast and appears to be gaining more confidence with it.

Although the timing may have shifted about a bit , the overall pattern remains: cold Arctic cold and winter precipitation are about to seize the European continent.

At the 2-minute mark Joe mentions the 11-16 day forecast for Europe, where the GFS model shows “brutal cold” across Europe.

Then at the 3:35 mark he focusses in on the European continent, showing a chart of projected snowfall (in inches!):

weatherbell30_12_2016-daily-update

Chart forecasts massive snow blanketing Europe later next month. Chart cropped from 12/30/2016 Weatherbell Daily Update.

Bastardi warns:

This is going to be a huge deal. You’re going to see the weather in Europe making global headlines as it gets covered with tremendous amounts of snow. And when you look at this […] Europe is brutally cold […] and Europe, get ready because there’s going to be all sorts of you know what is going to break loose over there.”

The forecast is still a couple of weeks out, but it is solidifying and the watch by now ought to be taken seriously. For me it is time to go out and buy that back-up generator – and don’t count on wind and solar energy to be there in a time of need! Most solar panels will likely be buried until spring.

In fact global headlines have already been made, with reports of massive snowfall in Turkey, Japan and North America, along with extraordinary cold and snow across all of Siberia and Russia.

Joe’s childish critics

It’s only natural that some obstinate fans of global warming are not thrilled about hearing such news, and they lash out childishly — steadfastly remaining convinced that snow is a thing of the past and is not supposed to happen anymore.

And if harsh wintry weather does strike in a way it did in the old days, without hesitation they insist it’s a freak anomaly, or indulge in an orgy of creative rationalization and blame it somehow on global warming.

These readers always attack and discredit messenger Joe.

Concerning Joe’s meteorological credentials, let’s keep in mind that he is not just some run-of-the-mill weatherman who parrots whatever bulletins the weather services put out. He is in fact a decades-long meteorological veteran who actually looks at the monthly forecasts issued by the weather services and questions them using a huge database of historical weather data and meteorological science.

Moreover meteorology for the Bastardi family has become a generational thing. His father was a successful weatherman, and now Joe’s son is following the family tradition as well. If there ever was such a thing as meteorological genes, the Bastardis certainly seem to have them. These guys have precipitation running through their veins!

And of course mistakes are made, that’s all part of the weather forecasting business — especially when forecasting more than 7 days out.

 

The ‘Ocean Acidification’ Narrative Collapses Under The Weight Of New Scientific Evidence

The ocean “acidification” narrative that claims humans are gradually lowering pH levels in sea water with their CO2 emissions may rest on presumptions, hypotheticals, and confirmation bias — not robust, observational scientific evidence.

A paper by Wei et al. (2015) published a year ago in the Journal of Geophysical Research effectively illustrates the vacuousness of the ocean “acidification” paradigm.

In the paper, the authors assert that “model calculations” (yes, calculations from modeling) have indicated oceanic pH levels may have decreased (i.e., lowered pH = less alkaline = more “acidic”) since the 1800s by a total of about 0.1 as consequence of the rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.  This overall pH-lowering “trend” of less than 0.1 since the industrial era began is “predicted” to “potentially threaten the existence and development of many marine calcareous organisms”.  Again, it’s the 150-year -0.1 trend in pH-lowering — which the authors admit is subject to “large errors” in measurement — that threatens the oceanic biosphere according to modeled predictions.  In contrast, large natural pH drops of -0.2 to -0.5 occurring on 10-year timescales do not threaten “marine calcareous organisms.”   Here are the key points from the paper:

Wei et al., 2015       Ocean acidification is predicted to reduce the saturation state of carbonate minerals in seawater and potentially threaten the existence and development of many marine calcareous organisms, such as calcareous microorganisms and corals. Model calculations have indicated an overall decrease in global seawater pH of 0.1 relative to the preIndustrial era value, and a further pH reduction of 0.2–0.3 over the next century.
We here estimate the OA rates from the two long (>150 years) annually resolved pH records from the northern SCS (this study) and the northern GBR [Great Barrier Reef], and the results indicate annual rates of -0.00039 +/- 0.00025 yr and -0.00034 +/- 0.00022 yr for the northern SCS [South China Sea] and the northern GBR [Great Barrier Reef], respectively. … [T]hese two time-series do not show significant decreasing trend for pH.  Despite such large errors, estimated from these rates, the seawater pH has decreased by about 0.07–0.08 U over the past 200 years in these regions.   …  The average calculated seawater pH over the past 159 years was 8.04 [with a] a seawater pH variation range of 7.66–8.40.

Below is the “money” graph from the paper that depicts sea surface temperature anomalies (top) and decadal-scale variations ranging between 7.66 and 8.40 in seawater pH (bottom) since the 1850s for the West Pacific Ocean:

holocene-cooling-pacific-west-ssts-ph-wei-15

First, notice that the Wei et al. (2015) sea surface temperature (SST) graph (top, green font) indicates there has been a rather significant cooling trend in the Western Pacific since the 1980s, and that SSTs are no warmer today than they were in the 1850s.  This is consistent with other reconstructions that show modern SSTs in the region (NW Pacific) may still be a full degree C colder than they were during the Medieval Warm Period, and multiple degrees colder than they were a few thousand years ago (Yamamoto et al., 2016, Rosenthal et al., 2017).

But the bottom graph (red font) of pH variability since the mid-19th century is even more cogent.  Notice that pH levels fluctuate between about 7.7 and 8.4 throughout the 150+ years, with many of the amplitudes found in the rises and falls in pH occurring at rates of + or – 0.2 to 0.5 per decade.  So we are apparently expected to believe that changes in pH of + or – 0.2 to 0.5 per decade are not dangerous or “predicted” to “potentially threaten the existence and development of many marine calcareous organisms”, but the overall “acidic” or pH-lowering “trend” of less than -0.1 over 150 years is supposed to be dangerous to the oceanic biosphere.   Below is an annotated version of this same graph brandishing this flagrant contradiction.

holocene-cooling-pacific-west-ssts-ph-wei-15_edited-1

Daniel Cressey, who has previously helped expose a growing corruption problem infecting the scientific community, recently summarized the state of research on ocean “acidificaton” for the prestigious scientific journal Nature.  He poignantly states that the lack of skepticism and an eager willingness to just accept the presumptions of others based upon their authoritative status (“groupthink”) may have “damage[d] the credibility of the ocean sciences”.   And once scientific credibility is damaged, it becomes very difficult to earn that credibility back.

Cressey (2015)       The state of the world’s seas is often painted as verging on catastrophe. But although some challenges are very real, others have been vastly overstated, researchers claim in a review paper. The team writes that scientists, journals and the media have fallen into a mode of groupthink that can damage the credibility of the ocean sciences. The controversial study exposes fault lines in the marine-science community.   Carlos Duarte, a marine biologist at the University of Western Australia in Perth, and his colleagues say that gloomy media reports about ocean issues such as invasive species and coral die-offs are not always based on actual observations. It is not just journalists who are to blame, they maintain: the marine research community “may not have remained sufficiently sceptical” on the topic.

Scientists Find Higher CO2, Lowered pH Levels (‘Acidification’) Have Little To No Effect On Ocean-Dwelling Organisms

Scientists continue to construct experiments testing the effects of highly elevated CO2 (usually with volumes several times modern levels) on sea-living creatures.  They routinely find that higher CO2 levels (and higher sea temperatures) have little to no effect on growth rates or survival for the species tested.  In fact, it has been found in some cases that elevated CO2 benefits ocean-dwelling organisms, meaning that they thrive and prosper in these conditions.  Obviously, these scientific studies wholly undermine the paradigm that envisions the long-term survival of the oceanic biosphere is jeopardized by rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Uthicke et al., 2016       Near the vent site, the urchins experienced large daily variations in pH (> 1 unit) andpCO2 (> 2000 ppm) and average pH values (pHT 7.73) much below those expected under the most pessimistic future emission scenarios. Growth was measured over a 17-month period using tetracycline tagging of the calcareous feeding lanterns. Average-sized urchins grew more than twice as fast at the vent compared with those at an adjacent control site, and assumed larger sizes at the vent compared to the control site and two other sites at another reef near-by. … Thus, urchins did not only persist but actually ‘thrived’ under extreme CO2 conditions.
Vicente et al., 2016       The long-term exposure experiments revealed no effect on survival or growth rates of M. grandis to high pCO2 (1198 µatm), warmer temperatures (25.6°C), or combined high pCO2 with warmer temperature (1225 µatm, 25.7°C) treatments, indicating that M. grandis will continue to prosper under predicted increases in pCO2 and sea surface temperature
Moore, 2016       If the forecasts of continued global warming are borne out, the oceans will also become warmer and will tend to outgas CO2, offsetting to some extent the small increased partial pressure that might otherwise occur. … An analysis of research on the effect of lower pH shows a net beneficial impact on the calcification, metabolism, growth, fertility, and survival of calcifying marine species when pH is lowered up to 0.3 units, which is beyond what is considered a plausible reduction during this century. … There is no evidence to support the claim that most calcifying marine species will become extinct owing to higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and lower pH in the oceans.
Hildebrandt et al., 2016       Elevated pCO2 did not directly affect grazing activities and body mass, suggesting that the copepods did not have additional energy demands for coping with acidification, neither during long-term exposure nor after immediate changes in pCO2. Shifts in seawater pH thus do not seem to challenge these copepod species.
Cross et al., 2016       A CO2 perturbation experiment was performed on the New Zealand terebratulide brachiopod Calloria inconspicua to investigate the effects of pH conditions predicted for 2050 and 2100 on the growth rate and ability to repair shell. Three treatments were used: an ambient pH control (pH 8.16), a mid-century scenario (pH 7.79), and an end-century scenario (pH 7.62). The ability to repair shell was not affected by acidified conditions with >80% of all damaged individuals at the start of the experiment completing shell repair after 12 weeks. Growth rates in undamaged individuals >3 mm in length were also not affected by lowered pH conditions
Heinrich et al., 2016       In this study, we tested the effects of elevated CO2 on the foraging and shelter-seeking behaviours of the reef-dwelling epaulette shark, Hemiscyllium ocellatum. Juvenile sharks were exposed for 30 d to control CO2 (400 µatm) and two elevated CO2 treatments (615 and 910 µatm), consistent with medium- and high-end projections for ocean pCO2 by 2100. Contrary to the effects observed in teleosts and in some other sharks, behaviour of the epaulette shark was unaffected by elevated CO2.
Sunjin and Jetfelt, 2016       [A]n increasing number of studies show tolerance of fish to increased levels of carbon dioxide. … We investigated the possible effects of CO2 on behavioural lateralization, swimming activity, and prey and predator olfactory preferences, all behaviours where disturbances have previously been reported in other fish species after exposure to elevated CO2. Interestingly, we failed to detect effects of carbon dioxide for most behaviours investigated
Schram et al., 2016       There were no significant temperature or pH effects on growth, net calcification, shell morphologies, or proximate body composition of snails. Our findings suggest that both gastropod species demonstrate resilience to initial exposure to temperature and pH changes predicted to occur over the next several hundred years globally and perhaps sooner along the WAP.
Brien et al., 2016       Corals were collected from reefs around Orpheus and Pelorus Islands on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. They were then exposed to elevated pCO2 for 4 weeks with two CO2 treatments: intermediate (pCO2 648) and high (pCO2 1003) compared with a control (unmanipulated seawater) treatment (pCO2 358). Porites cylindrica growth did not vary among pCO2 treatments, regardless of the presence and type of competitors, nor was the growth of another hard coral species, Acropora cerealis, affected by pCO2 treatment. 
Zhang et al., 2016       The present study investigated the physiological responses (ingestion, absorption rate and efficiency, respiration, and excretion) and scope for growth (SfG) of an intertidal scavenging gastropod, Nassarius festivus, to the combined effects of ocean acidification (pCO2 levels: 380, 950, and 1250 µatm), salinity (10 and 30 psu), and temperature (15 and 30°C) for 31 d. [E]levated pCO2 levels had no effects in isolation on all physiological parameters and only weak interactions with temperature and/or salinity for excretion and SfG. In conclusion, elevated pCO2will not affect the energy budget of adult N. festivus at the pCO2 level predicted to occur by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the year 2300.
Wang et al., 2016       The pMENs results were in line with the null hypothesis that elevated pCO2/pH does not affect biogeochemistry processes. The number of nodes within the pMENs and the connectivity of the bacterial communities were similar, despite increased pCO2 concentrations. Our results indicate that elevated pCO2 did not significantly affect microbial community structure and succession in the Arctic Ocean, suggesting bacterioplankton community resilience to elevated pCO2.
Pančić et al., 2015       The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrusfrom Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. … By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found.
Wall et al., 2015       Cold-water corals are important habitat formers in deep-water ecosystems and at high latitudes. Ocean acidification and the resulting change in aragonite saturation are expected to affect these habitats and impact coral growth. Counter to expectations, the deep water coral Lophelia pertusa has been found to be able to sustain growth even in undersaturated conditions. … Skeletal morphology is highly variable but shows no distinctive differences between natural and low pH conditions. … We suggest that as long as the energy is available to sustain the up-regulation, i.e. individuals are well fed, there is no detrimental effect to the skeletal morphology.

Oceanic Microbes Routinely Endure Water Temperature Extremes That Exceed (Modeled) Future Warming Changes

According to climate models, sea surface temperatures are expected to rise dramatically during the next century due to the rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.  Doblin and van Sebille (2016), however, point out that upper-ocean microbes routinely travel through (and thrive in) waters that vary in range by up to 10°C more than they do from one seasonal extreme to another (i.e., winter vs. summer), and thus the predicted warming of near surface ocean waters will not even be close to the extreme temperature variations these organism routinely endure.

Doblin and van Sebille, 2016       Here we show that upper-ocean microbes experience along-trajectory temperature variability up to 10 °C greater than seasonal fluctuations estimated in a static frame, and that this variability depends strongly on location. These findings demonstrate that drift in ocean currents can increase the thermal exposure of microbes and suggests that microbial populations with broad thermal tolerance will survive transport to distant regions of the ocean and invade new habitats.
[press release]        The results of the study … show for the first time the range of temperatures that plankton travel through. In most locations, they endure temperature extremes that go beyond what is predicted by models of global warming.

Corals Naturally Adapt To Elevated CO2, Water Temperature; Their Long-Term Survival Is Not Threatened

Somehow corals were able to evolve and survive and thrive — avoiding extinction — during periods when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were several times higher than now, and when sea water temperatures were multiple degrees C warmer than now.  And yet those advocating the ocean “acidification” narrative claim that corals are not longer able to adapt to the modern (tiny) temperature and CO2 changes that have occurred in recent decades.  Scientists, meanwhile, have found that corals are quite resilient, and can adapt quickly to large environmental changes well beyond the range of recent and projected climatic conditions.

Prada et al., 2016       Our study suggests that populations of Orbicella species [corals] are capable of rebounding from reductions in population size under suitable conditions and that the effective population size of modern corals provides rich standing genetic variation for corals to adapt to climate change.
Matz et al., 2015       Heat tolerance in corals can be passed down the generations, suggesting that corals can adapt as the climate warms.
Georgiou et al., 2015       The FOCE experiment was designed to simulate the effects of CO2-driven acidification predicted to occur by the end of this century (scenario RCP4.5) while simultaneously maintaining the exposure of corals to natural variations in their environment under in situ conditions. Analyses of skeletal growth (measured from extension rates and skeletal density) showed no systematic differences between low-pH FOCE treatments (Δ pH=0.05 to0.25 units below ambient) and present day controls (ΔpH=0) for calcification rates or the pH of the calcifying fluid (pH cf)[C]oral living in highly dynamic environments exert strong physiological controls on the carbonate chemistry of their calcifying fluid, implying a high degree of resilience to ocean acidification within the investigated ranges.

Corals Are A Net Source Of CO2, For They Release CO2 As They Grow And Thrive; ‘Acidification’ A Sign Of Healthy Corals

Scientists have found that higher “acidification” levels (lower pH) in the vicinity of coral communities are indication that the corals are thriving and growing.  Why?  Because corals produce their own “acidification” by releasing more CO2 than they absorb.  They are a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere.

McGowan et al., 2016        Here we present by way of case study the first direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef made using the eddy covariance method. Research was conducted during the summer monsoon over a lagoonal platform reef in the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Results show the reef flat to be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of similar magnitude as coastal lakes, while adjacent shallow and deep lagoons were net sinks as was the surrounding ocean. This heterogeneity in CO2 exchange with the atmosphere confirms need for spatially representative direct measurements of CO2 over coral reefs to accurately quantify their role in atmospheric carbon budgets.
Yeakel et al., 2015       Our results reveal that coral reefs undergo natural interannual events of rapid acidification due to shifts in reef biogeochemical processes that may be linked to offshore productivity and ultimately controlled by larger-scale climatic and oceanographic processes.
[press release]       More acidic water may be a sign of healthy corals, says a new study, muddying the waters still further on our understanding of how coral reefs might react to climate change. … Andreas Andersson of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California, and his colleagues carefully monitored a coral reef in Bermuda for five years, and found that spikes in acidity were linked to increased reef growth. … The researchers observed the chemistry of the water on the reef between 2007 and 2012. During that time, there were two sharp spikes in acidity – once in 2010 and again in 2011. The team found that coral growth itself made the water more acidic as the corals sucked alkaline carbonate out of the water to build their skeletons. The corals also ate more food during these high-activity periods and pumped more CO2 into the water, increasing acidity further.

More Than 90% Of Ocean pH Changes (‘Acidification’) Caused By Natural Variability, Not Anthropogenic CO2

Finally, the assumption that changes in the oceans’ pH levels are primarily caused by humans is just that: a non-confirmed assumption.  As Duarte et al. (2015) conclude, there is “no robust evidence for realized severe disruptions of marine socioecological links from ocean acidification to anthropogenic CO2”.  Possibly the only people who still “believe” in the paradigm are those who are inclined to accept doomsday scenarios and those who are being financially compensated to keep them going.

Goodkin et al., 2015       Here we reconstruct 222 years of biennial seawater pH variability in the Sargasso Sea from a brain coral, Diploria labyrinthiformis. Using hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) and the coral derived pH record, we are able to differentiate pH changes due to surface temperature versus those from ocean circulation and biogeochemical changes. We find that ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2 trends, but rather that circulation/biogeochemical changes account for >90% of pH variability in the Sargasso Sea and more variability in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone.
Duarte et al., 2015       [T]he link between these declines and ocean acidification through anthropogenic CO2 is unclear.  Corrosive waters affecting oysters in hatcheries along the Oregon coast were associated with upwelling (Barton et  al. 2012), not anthropogenic CO2. The decline in pH affecting oysters in Chesapeake Bay (Waldbusser et al. 2011) was not attributable to anthropogenic CO2 but was likely attributable to excess respiration associated with eutrophication. Therefore, there is, as yet, no robust evidence for realized severe disruptions of marine socioecological links from ocean acidification to anthropogenic CO2, and there are significant uncertainties regarding the level of pH change that would prompt such impacts. …  A number of biases internal and external to the scientific community contribute to perpetuating the perception of ocean calamities in the absence of robust evidence

‘Manager Magazin’ Reports How Renewable Electricity Is Taking Germany On A Wild Ride

It’s the paradox of the German Energiewende (transition to green energy): power exchange market prices are lower than ever before, yet consumers are paying the highest prices ever – with no stop in the increases in sight. Moreover, the more green electricity that is fed into the grid, the more coal that gets burned.

Communist-quality state planning

If today’s German power grid sounds like a horror story of communist state-planned management, it is because it is in fact so. And unsurprisingly the whole industry is well on its way to a Soviet style meltdown.

For this we have former East German communist Angela Merkel to thank, in part, along with her spineless West German CDU cohorts, many of whom eagerly hopped on the gravy train and let the country be taken for a wild ride.

Today German Manager Magazin here brings us up to date on the country’s “greening” power grid — taking a look at the control center of grid operating company Tennet. Manager Magazin calls it the heart of the German Energiewende. Here a team of engineers decide how much gets fed into the various grids and which windparks are allowed to feed in and which aren’t.

Balancing act

Today the task has become a challenging balancing act. According to Manager Magazin, facility manager Volker Weinreich says “we have to intervene more often than ever to keep the power grid stable. We are getting closer and closer to the limit.”

The reason for the grid instability: the growing amount of erratic renewable energy being fed in, foremost wind and sun. Manager Magazin writes that there are always four workers monitoring the frequency at the Tennet control center, just outside Hannover, making sure that it stays near 50 Hz. Too much instability would mean a the “worst imaginable disaster: grid collapse and blackout“.

More price hikes in the pipeline

Manager Magazin reports Germany now has a huge oversupply of power flooding into the grid and thus causing prices on the electricity exchanges to plummet to levels never seen before. Yet, renewable electricity producers are guaranteed, in most cases over a period of 20 years, exorbitant high prices for their energy. This means power companies have to purchase at a high price, yet can get only very little for it on the exchange markets.

The German business magazine then writes that once again consumers will be getting the serious shaft, as the feed-in subsidy consumers are forced to pay will climb another 0.53 cents-euro in 2017, bringing the total feed in tariff for power consumers to 6.88 cents-euro for every kilowatt hour they consume.

Bavaria faces Industrial power blackout

Another huge problem is that by 2022 Germany will be shutting down the remaining nuclear power plants, a source that much of Germany’s industrial south relies on. In the meantime, the necessary transmission lines to transport wind power from the North Sea to the south are not getting built due to protests and permitting bottlenecks. This puts Bavaria’s heavy industry at risk. manager writes that the transmission lines are not expected to be completed by 2025!

In Part 3 of its report, manager Magazin reports that operating a power grid has become more complex and costly, due to the renewable power, and that the Energiewende has turned into “ecological foolishness“.  Weinreich describes how on stormy days wind parks are forced to shut down to keep the grid from frying. And the more wind turbines that come online, the more often wind parks need to be shut down. This makes them even more inefficient.

Not only do wind and solar feed in their power on a part-time basis, but now so do the conventional power plants as well — all according to the whims of the weather. An d too often they run at levels well below peak efficiency. The costs of all the inefficiencies get passed on to the consumers. Tens of thousands have been forced into “energy poverty”.

1400 interventions

Weinreich reports that the grid is so unstable that in 2015 it was necessary for Tennet to intervene some 1400 times. In the old conventional power days, it used to be only “a few times a year“.

In Part 4, Manager Magazin reports that all the intervention and shutdowns of runaway wind parks are “costing billions” for the consumers. Alone in 2017 Tennet says grid operating fees will rise 80%, translating to 30 euros more burden each year for each household. The money of course ends up flowing from poor consumers and into the pockets of wealthy solar and wind park operators and investors.

Little wonder that many experts call the German Energiewende the greatest bottom to top wealth distribution scheme ever created.

 

Meteorologists Warn Of Possible Arctic Blast For Europe. Also: Threat Of Green Energy Refugees!

At his Weatherbell Daily Update (12/26) veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi issued an Arctic weather heads up for Europe after the New Year:

Look at this in the 11 to 16. This is indicating that the models think there’s going to be a lot of snow on the ground in the UK and all through western Europe.”

The spring-like weather of the past week or so is about to end, as the following chart shows:

europe-2017_jan_5_10
As the chart shows, cold is projected to grip Central Europe 11 to 16 days out. Cropped from Weatherbell

Others have also issued a heads up. For example German meteorologist Dominik Jung warns of the “Siberian whip” being poised to seriously lash Europe. The forecast is still some 10 days out, and so there’s still a possibility it’ll change. But the overall pattern appears to be in the works, the meteorologists say.

2017_jan_03_djungChart shows the cold poised to storm across Europe beginning January 3, 2017. Chart source: wetterexperte.blogspot.de

Jung writes:

As the chart above shows, very cold air flows in to us here in Germany from high up. That would put us somewhat below freezing also in the daytime in many regions.
This scenario has been popping up in the weather model calculations for a few days, and so we should take it very seriously.”

Green energy refugees?

And with Europe’s power supply system as rickety and unstable as it is, thanks to crappy, wildly fluctuating wind and sun, it may be a wise idea for Europeans to have emergency sources of heat or electricity ready just in case the long anticipated blackout does occur – and is more likely during a period of protracted cold. I’ve been contemplating buying a small generator in order to power our natural gas furnace so that the house will at least have heat and warm water. The gas furnace needs electricity to operate.

Snowfall, long-term cold, and the resulting high power demands could challenge the power grid. Though the chances of a widespread blackout are small, it can no longer be ignored. Even the German government recently warned of the possibility. The DEUTSCHE WIRTSCHAFTS NACHRICHTEN here wrote earlier this year:

Also the President of the Federal Office of Citizens Protection, Christoph Unger, said: ‘The long-lasting, widespread power outage is for us the central challenge that we face.'”

Green energy refugees?

But there’s no need for Germans or Europeans to panic. There will always be warm places to take refuge. Yet it is unusual that we now need to prepare for the first green energy refugees – right here in “modern” Europe!

Not only Europe needs to brace for the coming cold, Bastardi also warns that Arctic air will push across North America and that there’s a real possibility of the weather turning “wickedly cold” over far east Asia. Winter has only just begun.

 

The Rapid Deceleration Of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss In Recent Years Not Reported In ‘Arctic Report Card’

 

About two weeks ago, NOAA released the annual version of their latest Arctic Report Card.  Of course, the usual media outlets peddled the requisite doomsday headlines when describing the report’s contents, deploying words like grim  and dire  and pedantically issuing a failing grade so as to paint a picture of an Arctic climate teetering on the brink of catastrophe.

It was on page 33 that the authors divulged the Greenland Ice Sheet’s mass balance statistics for 2015-’16.

2016 Arctic Report Card     Between April 2015 and April 2016 (the most recent period of available data) there was a net ice melt loss of 191 Gt.  This is about the same as the April 2014-April 2015 mass loss (190 Gt).”

So the ice sheet reportedly lost 191 gigatonnes (Gt) of water between April 2015 and April 2016.  Interestingly, last year’s report card (2015) had the April 2014 to April 2015 loss pegged at -186 Gt, not -190 Gt.  Somehow another 4 Gt were added to the total loss for 2014-’15 between then and now.

2015 Arctic Report Card     “Ice mass loss of 186 Gt over the entire ice sheet between April 2014 and April 2015 was 22% below the average mass loss of 238 Gt for the 2002- 2015 period.”

For 2013-’14, the mass loss for the Greenland Ice Sheet was even lower: just -6 Gt.  In other words, the ice sheet was essentially in balance.

2014 Arctic Report Card     A negligible ice mass loss of 6 Gt between June 2013 and June 2014″

To review, that’s -6 Gt, -186 Gt, and -191 Gt for the 2013 to 2016 mass balance records.  Averaged together, the loss was –128 Gt per year for 2013-’16, which is a substantially slower rate of loss relative to previous years.

A Rapid Deceleration In Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Since 2012

Now here’s where it gets interesting.  For their 2013 report card, NOAA authors wanted to accentuate just how profound the loss of ice mass had been for the 2008-2012 period compared with the 2002-2006 period.  This way, they could point to a rapid acceleration of ice sheet mass loss.

2013 Arctic Report Card    “The rate of mass loss has accelerated during the period of observation, the mass loss of 367 Gt/y between September 2008 and September 2012 being almost twice that for the period June 2002-July 2006 (193 Gt/y)

arctic-report-card-2012

As some may have noticed, NOAA curiously uses different starting and ending months for each demarcated period, making direct data comparisons difficult (due to different gain/melt rates depending on the month).  Instead of comparing September to September every year (as they did in 2008-’12), they’ve compared April to April in some years, June to June in another year, and June to July in still another 4-year-long selection.  And they’ve ignored the melt record for 2007 altogether in the above analysis when comparing 2002-2006 to 2008-2012.   NOAA wouldn’t dare “move the goal posts” by cherry-picking different start and end points depending on the melt rates for specific months so as to bolster their claims of “acceleration” would they?   That would imply operating with a tendentious agenda rather than objectively reporting the data.   Would they do that?

But instead of digressing to discuss their odd “selectivity” with regard to choosing some months or years to start and end with instead of others, we will just accept NOAA’s methodology and analyze the yearly averages as originally reported.

So according to present and historical NOAA Arctic Report Cards we have  the following rates of annual Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss for 2002-2016:

                                        –193 Gt/yr for 2002-2006

                                        -367 Gt/yr for 2008-2012

                                        -128 Gt/yr for 2013-2016

We can even go a step further and add the 1990s to the record.  Despite of a highly increasing rate of human CO2 emissions for the 1992-2002 period, NASA’s Zwally et al. (2005) reported an average net gain of +11 Gt/yr for the Greenland Ice Sheet during those 10 years.

Zwally et al., 2005     “Changes in ice mass are estimated from elevation changes derived from 10.5 years (Greenland) [1992-2002] … of satellite radar altimetry data from the European Remote-sensingSatellites ERS-1 and -2. The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (–42 ± 2 Gt/yr–1 below the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53 ± 2 Gt/yr–1 above the ELA) with a small overall mass gain (+11  ± 3 Gt/yr–1; –0.03 mm a–1SLE (sea-levelequivalent)).”

So, adding the 1992-2002 NASA values to the 2002-2016 NOAA values, here is what the overall trend in Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance looks like during 1992-2016 using these as-reported mass balance values:

greenland-ice-sheet-mass-balance-loss-deceleration-2

Notice the dramatic rate of deceleration (by two-thirds) in Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss averages for recent years on the graph above, contradicting the reports of a perpetually increasing ice loss acceleration.

And the slowing mass loss rate has continued in 2016-’17.  According to DMI monitoring, the Greenland Ice Sheet is gaining ice substantially above the long-term average in the last 3-4 months.  It is highly likely that by the end of the record, the 2016-’17 mass loss will be significantly less than 200 Gt/yr, and perhaps less than 100 Gt/yr again.

greenland-ice-sheet-mass-balance-25-12-2016-dmi

 

The Context Of The Insignificant 1992-2016 Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Change

Some may counter the above analysis by claiming that even losing 100 to 200 Gt of ice per year is still quite substantial and concerning, and thus the alarmist headlines are merited.   But this perspective ignores history.

First, estimates of surface mass balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet almost invariably use the 1961-1990 period as a baseline, as it is assumed that the ice sheet was essentially in balance (no net losses or gains) for those 30 years.  As records have shown, though, the 1961-1990 baseline period was the coldest decadal-scale stretch since the 1800s for Greenland, which means that the 1995-to-present Arctic warming trend is being directly compared to a very cold period for the Greenland ice sheet rather than a more representative period.  In fact, as indicated by several recent papers, the Greenland ice sheet’s surface mass balance was similar to or even lower during the as-warm-as-now 1920s to 1940s than it has been during the last few decades.  If the baseline period were to include Greenland’s early 20th century warm years (1920s to 1940s), the recent losses would likely be substantially smaller.

Also, let’s consider what losing, say, 150 Gt per year actually means in terms of its environmental impact.   According to Shepherd et al. (2012), the Greenland Ice Sheet lost an average of -142 Gt/yr (with substantial uncertainty of ±49 Gt/yr) during the years 1992-2011.  This translates into an average of 0.4 mm/yr of sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet during this high-melt period.  In other words, over the entire 20-year record (1992-2011), the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed to sea level rise at a rate of 4 centimeters (1½ inches) per century.  That’s it.  That’s what a loss of -142 Gt per year multiplied by 20 years translates into.

Even if this alleged modern rate of loss were doubled to -300 Gt/yr, we are still only talking about 3 or 4 inches of sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet every century if that rate of loss could be sustained for 100 years.   As indicated above, that rate of loss couldn’t even be sustained for more than a few years in the last few decades.

Finally, as mentioned above, scientists presume the Greenland Ice Sheet was in balance during the 1961-1990 period, which is why it is used as the baseline reference period for surface mass balance estimates.  If that’s the case, there is no reason why estimates of the human impact on the Greenland Ice Sheet’s mass balance should not extend back to 1961 too.  Or even 1951.  After all, the IPCC has indicated in their latest (2014) synthesis report that the overwhelming (“more than half”) anthropogenic influence on climate commenced that particular year:

 “It is extremely likely more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.”

So if we were to include the ~40 years of majority anthropogenic influence between 1951 and 1991 that apparently saw no net change in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance with a (rounded up) combined mass loss rate of -150 Gt/yr between 1992 and 2016, the total human impact on the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet might amount to an annual loss average of -55 to -60 Gt for the entire 65-year period.  That’s a rate of contribution to sea level rise of about 1 ½ centimeters per century since 1951, or since humans allegedly began causing the majority of global warming.

Since a headline that reads “Humans Have Caused Greenland’s Ice To Melt At Rate That Adds 1 ½ Centimeters Per Century To Sea Levels!” probably wouldn’t be effective in grabbing readers’ attention, it’s understandable why journalists and advocates for the cause would prefer to use doomsday language instead.  It’s also understandable why they’d prefer to gloss over the recent deceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss found in the latest Arctic Report Card.  It sounds so much scarier to write about the hundreds of billions of tons of ice lost instead.

Former Clinton Strategist Views Renewables As Non-Competitive…”Let’s Not Destroy American Economy”

What follows is a political view from a person with lots of policy experience. He tells it the way he sees it.

dick-morris

Image cropped from DickMorris.com

Dick Morris is a former political strategist for President Bill Clinton, and a vocal critic of Hillary Clinton — no doubt with good reasons.

Morris not only has a good knowledge of history, but of policy practicality as well. In the video, he takes a pragmatic view at what is feasible when it come to energy in the United States.

Not worth throwing sovereignty overboard

First Morris comes out saying he thinks the jury is sill out on climate science, acknowledging that humans and natural factors play roles in driving climate change – view that is held by many of the so-called skeptics. He emphasizes that climate change is a serious problem, but not one that warrants throwing freedom and sovereignty overboard.

In the transportation sector, Morris believes that the internal combustion engine will eventually yield to other technologies, such as hydrogen fuelled engines.

Great progress through fracking

For manufacturing, Morris offers interesting statistics showing the great strides the US has made in reducing coal consumption for firing power plants, from over 55% some years ago to less than 40% today. He expects natural gas to surpass coal in the years ahead.

This progress is in large part due to the much greater supply and use of natural gas extracted from fracking. The technology has made a major contribution in cleaning up US energy production, no doubt. America has indeed made great strides in transforming its energy sector over the past two decades.

Renewable energy has only limited practicality

On renewable energy, Morris thinks that its use in the United States will be limited due to its impractical production and transmission. He scoffs at the idea of taking over the Danish model and imposing it on the United States.

He summarizes:

Renewable resources will be appropriate only for certain areas, very few areas, and with heavy subsidies so that it can compete with market prices — the subsidies too expensive, the areas too limited. And so the environmentalists are saying, ‘Well, if you can’t have perfection, then let’s not improve the current system, let’s not replace coal with natural gas. Let’s replace it with renewable resources that are not practical, are not available, not economical.’ So keep our eye on the ball: reducing carbon emissions where possible. But don’t destroy the whole American economy and make us non-competitive with global economies simply because of it. It is a major problem, but it is not only or even the only major problem we face.”

Dick Morris has put up a series of videos on energy policy, see here.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

 

2016 Highlights: Tsunami Of Skeptic Papers And Desperate Attempts To Silence Dissenters

2016 is coming to a close, and I’d like to wish all readers here a very Merry Christmas and all the best for the coming new year.

What follows are some of the main highlights at NTZ in 2016. Overall visitor traffic increased a good 30% since the start of the year. Much of this is due to the hard work of Kenneth Richard who joined as a guest author some months ago.

Kenneth writes every Monday and Thursday. His reviews of the latest scientific literature have gotten great attention. Thanks Kenneth!

2016 Highlights

January: stable Antarctic, GISS’s shady role

Back in January I reported how Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt wrote about how NASA GISS director Gavin Schmidt had “squandered much credibility” and played “a shady role with the temperature data.” The two German experts went on to say that Schmidt’s “dubious data alterations with the GISS datasets will likely become interesting material for science historians.”

Also we reported how Lüning wrote of 5 very recent papers showing that Antarctic ice is much more stable than originally believed.

February: 250 papers disputing climate alarmism

In February Kenneth Richard made his debut at NTZ, providing a list of over 250 peer-reviewed scientific papers from 2015 casting doubt on climate science! The entire list is here.

Also it was underscored what a folly Germany offshore wind energy truly is. A study we reported on shows that the maintenance costs are 100 times more than the cost of the turbine itself. Little wonder Germans are now forced to pay among the highest electricity rates in the world. Technical problems have plagued the German offshore wind industry, read more here.

March: Glacier retreat, sea level rise slow down

In March we presented new papers showing that glacier retreat and sea level rise are slowing down rapidly. Also read here and here. Claims of rapid sea level rise lost credibility as recent studies indicate only 0.8 – 1.6 mm/year sea level rise.

Moreover, Kenneth Richard published a story here on 500 peer-reviewed papers disputing alarmist claims surrounding climate from the year 2014 and 2015. Looks like the IPCC has got a lot of updating to do.

April: Embryonic, untrustworthy models

We’ve known a long time that climate models are woefully inadequate for making reliable long-term projections, and this was confirmed in a story we wrote on a paper appearing in Nature, where a world-class modeler admitted that models are only at the embryonic stage and are hardly trustworthy.

In April a hurricane and winter 2016/17 forecast was issued by David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations. So far it looks to be impressively right on the money! Dilley also projects a harsh cold period from 2025 to 2060.

May: MWP global; CERN confirms Svensmark

We saw that the Medieval Warm Period was also prominent in the southern hemisphere and not just a local north Atlantic phenomenon that alarmist scientists insist it was. Also results from CERN confirm the Svensmark theory. More here as well.

The sheer hypocrisy of Hollywood stars was exposed once again as Leonardo DiCaprio jet-set across the Atlantic, burning some 30,000 liters of kerosene – all to pick up an environmental award! Also read here and here.

We reported here how retired German climate scientist Prof. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke announced there is no detectable human fingerprint to be found in today’s climate change — and he called the science “a dangerous ideology“. Dutch geologist Gerrit van der Lingen even called it “a mass hysteria” and that historians will one day “shake their heads in disbelief“.

June: PIK warns of mini ice age! Faulty models

The ultra-alarmist PIK Potsdam Institute released a shocker, warning of a mini ice age — due to solar activity!

Kenneth Richard then published a list of 50 papers showing that CO2 climate sensitivity is seriously overstated. He also published a list of 21 papers showing that the models aren’t working very well.

July: NASA “data fraud”; ruthless wind industry

In July Tony Heller presented NASA’s climate data fraud and how the trends are “manipulated and fake”. So far the video has been viewed at YouTube close to 24,000 times.

In July we presented just how ruthless the wind industry can be, where it is suspected they destroyed a stork’s nest to clear the way for wind turbines. This shocked environmentalists.

Central Europe’s summer was hardly balmy this year, as a rare snow fell down to 1500 meters elevation in the middle of the summer.

The flood of skeptic papers grew in volume, Kenneth Richard wrote. Already just in the first half of 2016 some 240 papers casting doubt over climate alarmism were published.

August: No sea level rise signal; oceans drive climate

Again many new papers surfaced, obliterating the notion that the climate system is rushing to disaster. With this in mind it is truly unbelievable that a number of attorneys general attempted to silence skeptics using the brute force of the racketeering influenced corrupt organizations (RICO) act.

NTZ presented 4 new papers showing there’s been no detectable sea level rise signal. For example the paper by Hansen et al wrote: “Thus, we found that there is (yet) no observable sea-level effect of anthropogenic global warming in the world’s best recorded region.”

Later Kenneth Richard wrote there is no relationship between CO2 and temperature over 150 of the last 165 years. He also found 35 new papers showing that the sun and the oceans are the main climate drivers.

Even one of the globe’s leading warmist climatologists, Prof. Mojib Latif, conceded that natural oceanic cycles are directly related to tropospheric temperature.

Kenneth also posted a list of dozens of papers showing that “global warming is a made-up concept” and that sea level rise is in fact inversely proportional to CO2.

September: Hockey stick smashed; no cyclone energy trend!

Kenneth presented some 50 scientific publications refuting modern global warming claims. It is becoming increasingly obvious that rapid global warming is merely an artefact of statistical manipulations — all designed to mislead policymakers.

And when it comes to cyclones, atmospheric research scientist Dr. Philip Klotzbach confirmed he sees no link between accumulated cyclone energy and global warming over the past 30 years.

Moreover a new paper was published and shows that co2-influence on the greenhouse effect since 1992 has been imperceptible.

October: Broken models; CO2 is good; no consensus

More bad news for modelers appeared when Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Professor Fritz Vahrenholt declared climate models flawed here, claiming that there is no agreement between the models and paleoclimate data.

Kenneth also uncovered 20 scientific papers that tell us something we knew all along: higher CO2 and warmer temperatures boost crop yields. Now what could be so bad about that?

Also Kenneth showed that the scientific community is in fact a long way from consensus“.

Finally NTZ reported how leading leading climate sensitivity scientist Dr. Robert Cess admitted that the IPCC assumptions are erroneous.

November: Stable Arctic, hyped science; sun linked to climate

Despite the slow start in this winter’s Arctic sea ice recovery (weather-related), Kenneth Richard presented a list of scientific publications showing that there has been no significant net change in Arctic sea extent over the past 80 years. Indeed it’s good to keep your eyes on the big picture.

In a presentation, a retired German climate professor declared that climate science is hyped by a sloppy, politically corrupted media.

The sun-climate connection keeps getting stronger, as Kenneth Richard uncovered some 300 scientific publications over the past 3 years confirming the link. Little wonder that a French scientist found the powerful solar link as well, claiming that most of the global warming can be attributed to solar activity.

AND OF COURSE; HOW COULD ANYONE HAVE MISSED THE GREATEST WRENCH BEING THROWN INTO THE GLOBAL WARMING MACHINERY WITH THE SHOCK ELECTION OF DONALD J TRUMP.

December: Stable, frigid Greenland; slow sea level rise

Kenneth Richard reaffirmed the collapse of the now infamous hockey stick. He also showed that Greenland is as stable as ever, much colder today than it was several thousand years ago and that glaciers there are now even more advanced than they were back then.

Kenneth found more very new literature showing that sea level rise is in fact much slower than claimed, and that claims of a one-meter sea level rise by 2100 are “sheer nonsense”.

And with all the inconvenient scientific literature being published lately, and the public’s rejection of the mainstream media and dishonest political parties, the establishment has been forced to contemplate authoritarian counter-measures. Recently in Germany leading (highly misguided) politicians even called for a crackdown on freedom of speech and the formation of a Ministry of Truth.

Summary

With the huge tsunami of NEW papers disputing the claims of rapid, man-made global warming and the shock election of Donald Trump as President, things are looking awfully desperate for the junk-science fuelled climate alarmism industry. We could all but bury it in 2017.

Merry Christmas and a happy and cool new year everybody! -PG

 

National Weather Service’s Multi-Billion Dollar Models Fail …Totally Botched Forecasts!

If President-elect Donald Trump is looking for places to cut costs, he might want to take a look at the National Weather Service’s seasonal forecasting unit.

Yesterday at the Daily Update over at Weatherbell Analytics, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looked at the season forecasts, generated by billion dollar super-computers,  recently put out by NCEP. Turns out they were totally wrong. You have to pity the poor persons who placed their bets on them.

The first example is the forecast for North America made by NCEP in November for December:

bas_daiupd_1

Here we see a warm December was forecast for North America. And you’d think with those billion-dollar super computers and all the years of experience the NWS has accumulated over the past 100+ years, they’d be able to land a general forecast (going out only a few weeks) somewhere in the ballpark, right?

Amazingly, they missed the ball park by light years. In fact the very opposite has taken place, at least where people live:

bas_daiupd_1

You have many industries and institutions who rely on these forecasts in order to get a rough idea of what to expect and thus plan accordingly. Today they have got to be wondering about what has happened. Joe wonders if the NWS models are capable of predicting any cold weather at all. There seems to be an obsession with warmth.

Maybe cold no longer exists in the warming fantasy world of government weather forecasting –who knows.

Joe points out that he same busted result happened for the November 2014 forecast made in October 2014.

Coldest in 50 years

The NWS end-of-year forecast for Asia was even worse. Here’s what the NWS projected for the final 3 months of 2016:

bas_daiupt_3

Clearly they forecast a rather mild late year for the entire Asian continent.

Now here is what has happened so far:

bas_daiupt_4

It was completely wrong!

According to Joe, instead of being on the mild side, huge parts of Asia have seen to coldest Oct-Dec period in 50 years! He comments:

I’ve never seen anything like this, as bad as this in computer modeling.”

We would expect that the Russians are not too impressed with the NWS, and are for sure using their own methods, by now.

So what’s wrong?

Joe seems to think that the NWS is relying too much on “computer model mathematics” and nowhere near enough on using analogues. Joe’s theory is that if you had very similar weather patterns in the past, then you can use them to help predict today’s weather patterns. I’ve been following Joe for a number of years, and it seems to work quite well for Weatherbell. Of course he’s gotten some wrong, but more often he’s been almost dead on.

Slipshod models?

Bastardi concludes that his method of using analogue years “has beaten the pants off the big high-powered mathematical models. And we didn’t need billions of dollars to develop this, either“.

Forget models predicting 40 years out

Joe comments on the model’s failing to see the cold:

Here’s what I want to ask you: If you can’t see this, how the heck is it supposed to know down the road 20, 30, 40 years if cooling is going to take place? It goes with what is going on now.”

Enjoy the weather. It’s the only (correctly forecast) weather we got!”

 

The Hockey Stick Collapses: 60 New (2016) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable

Two fundamental tenets of the anthropogenic global warming narrative are (1) the globe is warming (i.e., it’s not just regional warming), and (2) the warming that has occurred since 1950 can be characterized as remarkable, unnatural, and largely unprecedented.  In other words, today’s climate is substantially and alarmingly different than what has occurred in the past….because the human impact has been profound.

Well, maybe not.  Scientists are increasingly finding that the two fundamental points cited above may not be supported by the evidence.

In 2016, an examination of the peer-reviewed scientific literature has uncovered dozens of paleoclimate reconstructions that reveal modern “global” warming has not actually been global in scale after all, as there are a large number of regions on the globe where it has been cooling for decades.   Even if it was warming on a global scale, the paleoclimate evidence strongly suggests that the modern warm climate is neither unusual or profoundly different than it has been in the past.  In fact, today’s regional warmth isn’t even close to approaching the Earth’s maximum temperatures achieved earlier in the Holocene, or as recently as 1,000 years ago (the Medieval Warm Period), when anthropogenic CO2 emissions could not have exerted a climate impact.

In fact, there is a growing body of evidence that the warming in recent decades is not even unprecedented within the context of the last 80 years.   That’s because the amplitude of the 1930s and 1940s warm period matched or exceeded that of the warmth in the late 20th and early 21st centuries in many regions of the world.  Furthermore, between the warmth of the 1930s and ’40s and the warmth of the 1990s to present, there was a very widely publicized cooling period (late 1950s to early 1970s) that was heavily discussed in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Today’s instrumental datasets curiously do not reflect this 20th century warming-cooling-warming oscillatory shape, however, as doing so would not lend support to the modeled understanding that climate is shaped by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which have increased linearly, not cyclically.  In fact, not only has the high amplitude of the 1930s and 1940s warmth been “adjusted” down or depressed in global-scale representations of instrumental temperatures by NASA or the MetOffice, the substantial cooling (-0.5°C in the Northern Hemisphere, including -1.5°C cooling in the Arctic region) that occurred in the 1960s and 1970s has all but disappeared from today’s temperature graphs.

Scientists, meanwhile, keep on publishing their results.  And their results don’t lend support to the narrative that the globe has been synchronously warming, or warming in linear fashion and in concert with the rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.  Indeed, in many regions of the world, decadal-scale cooling has occurred since the mid-20th century.

Listed below are a collection of 60 peer-reviewed scientific papers published within the last year (2016) undermining the “consensus” position that modern warming patterns are global in extent and synchronization, and that today’s warmth is both unusual and unprecedented.  The first section (1) identifies the regions of the world where there has been no net warming in recent decades.  The second section (2) puts modern climate into its much larger Holocene context, revealing just how insignificant and unremarkable this current (regional) warming trend has been relative to history.

(1) ‘Global’ Warming? No Net Warming In These Regions Since Mid Or Late 20th Century

De Jong et al., 2016  (Andes, South America)

[T]he reconstruction…shows that recent warming (until AD 2009) is not exceptional in the context of the past century. For example, the periods around AD 1940 and from AD 1950–1955 were warmer. This is also shown in the reanalysis data for this region and was also observed by Neukom et al. (2010b) and Neukom and Gergis (2011) for Patagonia and central Chile. Similarly, based on tree ring analyses from the upper tree limit in northern Patagonia, Villalba et al. (2003) found that the period just before AD 1950 was substantially warmer than more recent decades.

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Zhu et al., 2016 (China)

[W]e should point out that the rapid warming during the 20th century was not especially obvious in our reconstructed RLST.

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Zhang et al., 2016  (Scandinavia)

[P]resent-day global mean air temperatures may have been equally high around 1000 years ago during the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; Lamb, 1969; Grove and Switsur, 1994). However, since regional temperature reconstructions display large variability in the timing and magnitude of the MCA (PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013), this issue has not yet been adequately settled. Hence, there is still a great need to produce and improve empirical proxy data to further our understanding of near and distant climate changes.

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Zafar et al., 2016 (Pakistan, Karakorum Mountains)

[O]ur results indicate that Karakorum temperature has remained decidedly out of phase with hemispheric temperature trends for at the least the past five centuries

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Zhao et al., 2016 (Greenland Ice Sheet)

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Sunkara and Tiwari, 2016  (India, Western Himalayas)

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Turner et al., 2016  (Antarctic Peninsula)

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability

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Tejedor et al., 2016    (Iberian Range, Spain)

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Chandler et al., 2016 (South Iceland)

Analysis of climate data for SE Iceland also indicates that the three periods of ice-frontal retreat [1936-’41, 1951-’56, and 2006-’11] identified are associated with similar summer air temperature values, which has previously been shown to be a key control in terminus variations in Iceland. We, therefore, demonstrated that the coincidence of the most recent phase of ice-frontal retreat at Skálafellsjökull (2006–2011) and warming summer temperatures is not unusual in the context of the last ~80 years. This highlights the need to place observations of contemporary glacier change in a broader, longer-term (centennial) context.

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Jones et al., 2016    (Southern Ocean)

 [C]limate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends.

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Zhu et al., 2016 (Northeast China)

We identified four major cold periods (1839–1846, 1884–1901, 1906–1908 and 1941–1958) and three major warm periods (1855–1880, 1918–1932 and 1998–2013) in the past 211 years. The multi-taper method spectral analysis revealed significant cycles at 48.8, 11.5, 8.9, 3.9, 3.5 and 2–3 years, which might be associated with global climate oscillations and land-sea thermal contrasts, such as the sea surface temperatures, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and solar activity.

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Rydval et al., 2016  (Scotland)

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Hasholt et al., 2016 (Southeast Greenland)

We determined that temperatures for the ablation measurement periods in late July to early September were similar in both 1933 and the recent period [1990s – present], indicating that the temperature forcing of ablation within the early warm period and the present are similar.

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Incarbona et al., 2016  (Sicily, Aegean Sea)

Solar activity modulates patterns in surface temperature and pressure that resemble NAO phases, through dynamical coupling processes between the stratosphere and the troposphere that transmit the solar signal to the Earth’s surface.

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Tipton et al., 2016 (Hudson Valley, New York)

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Serykh, 2016

The very fast climate warming of the Euro-Asian continent that began in the 1970s may be associated with the enhanced heat transport from the North Atlantic in this period. This is evident from the fields and time series obtained in the present paper. The hiatus of this warming after 1999 may be due to the decreased heat transfer from the North Atlantic Ocean to the Eurasian territory.

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Ogi et al, 2016  (Greenland, West and South)

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Zinke et al., 2016  (Indian Ocean)

We calibrate individual robust Sr / Ca records with in situ SST and various gridded SST products. The results show that the SST record from Cabri provides the first Indian Ocean coral proxy time series that records the SST signature of the PDO in the south-central Indian Ocean since 1945. … Marked negative Sr /Ca anomalies (warmer) are observed during the first half of the 20th century centred at 1918/19, 1936–1941 and in the period 1948–1951 that exceed anomalies in the 1961 to 1990 reference period.

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de Jong and de Steur, 2016 (North Atlantic)

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O’Donnell et al., 2016 (Australia SE)

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Moreno et al., 2016   (Portugal)

The major external forcing of the climate system derives from the Sun. A solar signature has been found in global mean surface temperatures, with evidence directly related to two noticeably different features of the Sun’s dynamics: its short-term irradiance fluctuations and secular patterns of 22-year and 11-year cycles (Scafetta and West, 2008). … [I]t is recognized that solar forcing manifestations denote a strong spatial and seasonal variability (Usoskin et al., 2006), and this would be the reason why it might be illusive to seek a single global relationship between climate and solar activity (de Jager, 2005). Thus, Le Mouël et al. (2009) stated that a regional approach may allow one to identify specific forms of solar forcing, where and when the solar input is most important. … [S]olar footprints on terrestrial temperatures [are] due to the strong non-linear hydrodynamic interactions across the Earth’s surface, and the accepted longerterm solar activity influence creating temperature oscillations for tens or even hundreds of years (Scafetta and West, 2003, 2007, 2008). … These spectral analysis results appear to support a solar forcing with regards to Minho GHD [grape harvest dates]

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Christy and McNider, 2016  (Alabama, U.S.)

The time frame is 1883-2014. … Varying the parameters of the construction methodology creates 333 time series with a central trend-value based on the largest group of stations of -0.07 °C decade-1 with a best-guess estimate of measurement uncertainty being -0.12 to -0.02 °C decade-1. This best-guess result is insignificantly different (0.01 C decade-1) from a similar regional calculation using NOAA nClimDiv data beginning in 1895. … Finally, 77 CMIP-5 climate model runs are examined for Alabama and indicate no skill at replicating long-term temperature and precipitation changes since 1895.

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van As et al., 2016 (Greenland Ice Sheet)

We conclude that at our study sites annual net ablation is likely to be larger in recent years than during any previous period in the instrumental era, covering up to 150 years. … [I]n southern Greenland ablation peaked significantly around 1930. While most of Greenland underwent relatively warm (summer) conditions in the 1930s (Cappelen 2015), this was most notable at the more southern locations, resulting in amplified ablation values according to our estimates. JJA [summer] temperatures were higher in 1928 and 1929 than in any other year of the Qaqortoq record, both attaining values of 9.2°C. This suggests that ablation in those years may have exceeded the largest net ablation measured on the Greenland ice sheet ( 2010).

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Ellenburg et al., 2016  (Southeastern U.S.)

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Munz et al., 2015  (Arabian Sea)

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Tamura et al., 2016

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(2) Today’s Climate Still Colder Than Most Of The Last 10,000 Years

                                                               Present >

Fudge et al., 2016  (West Antarctica)     holocene-cooling-antarctica-west-fudge-16

Harning et al., 2016 (Iceland)

Distal lakes document rapid early Holocene deglaciation from the coast and across the highlands south of the glacier. Sediment from Skorarvatn, a lake to the north of Drangajokull, shows that the northern margin of the ice cap reached a size comparable to its contemporary limit by ~10.3 ka. Two southeastern lakes with catchments extending well beneath modern Drangajokull confirm that by ~9.2 ka, the ice cap was reduced to ~20% of its current area.

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Jalali et al., 2016  (Mediterranean Sea)

Several proxy records have documented surface water variability of the Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene (Kallel et al., 1997a, b, 2004; Cacho et al., 2001; Guinta et al., 2001; Rohling et al., 2002; Emeis et al., 2003; Essalami et al., 2007; Frigola et al., 2007; Castañeda et al., 2010; Boussetta et al., 2012; Martrat et al., 2014). Most of them reveal that Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have undergone a long-term cooling punctuated by several cold relapses (CRs; Cacho et al., 2001; Frigola et al., 2007). While orbital forcing likely explains this long-term tendency, solar activity and volcanism contribute to forced variability (Mayewski et al., 2004; Wanner et al., 2011) together with internal variability (i.e. Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV), North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO) all together embedded in the multi-decadal scale variability seen in paleorecords.

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Steinman et al., 2016 (Washington State, US)

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Aizen et al., 2016 (Asia, Greenland Ice Sheet)

[R]ecent air temperatures (1993–2003) are, on average, 0.5 °C lower than air temperatures estimated during the MWP [Medieval Warm Period] and Holocene Climate Optimum. … [P]eriods warmer than modern periods occurred for 6.5 ka [6,500 years] including during the HCO and Medieval Warm Period.

Finsinger et al., 2016   (Romania, Carpathians)

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Ge et al., 2016  (China)

Results of this study show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years were in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921, while cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. Interestingly, temperatures during AD 981-1100 and AD 1201-1270 were comparable to those of our Present Warm Period, but have an uncertainty of 0.28°-0.42°C at 95% confidence level. Temperature variations over the whole of China are typically in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) after AD 1000, the period which covers the Medieval Climate Anomaly, the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the Present Warm Period.

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Thomas et al., 2016 (Greenland, West)

Paired climate and ice sheet records from previous warm periods can elucidate the factors influencing GrIS mass balance on time scales longer than the observational record [Briner et al., 2016]. During the middle Holocene, temperature on Greenland was ~ 2°C higher than present [Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Axford et al., 2013].

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Thirumalai et al., 2016  (Tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico)

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Sanchez-Lopez et al., 2016  (Iberian Peninsula)

The dominant warm and arid conditions during the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly, 900-1300  CE], and the cold and wet conditions during the LIA [Little Ice Age, 1300-1850 CE] indicate the interplay of the NAO+, EA+ and NAO- , EA- [positive/negative North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic phases], respectively. Furthermore, the higher solar irradiance during the [“warm conditions”] RP [Roman Period, 200 BCE – 500 CE] and MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly, 900-1300 CE] may support the predominance of the EA+ [positive East Atlantic] phase, whereas the opposite scenario [“colder temperatures”] during the EMA [Early Middle Age, 500-900 CE] and LIA [Little Ice Age, 1300-1850 CE] may support the predominance of the EA- [negative East Atlantic] phase, which would favour the occurrence of frequent and persistent blocking events in the Atlantic region during these periods.

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Lyu et al., 2016  (China)

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Rosenthal et al., 2017 (Pacific, Atlantic Oceans)

Here we review proxy records of intermediate water temperatures from sediment cores and corals in the equatorial Pacific and northeastern Atlantic Oceans, spanning 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. These records suggests that intermediate waters [0-700 m] were 1.5-2°C warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than in the last century. Intermediate water masses cooled by 0.9°C from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age.

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Wang et al., 2016  (Tibetan Plateau)

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Jones et al., 2016 (East Antarctica, Antarctic Plateau)

Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries.

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Mark, 2016  (North Atlantic)

Much of the North Atlantic shows a maximum between 5000-8000 years B.P. Bradley et. al (2003) compiled a number of marine and terrestrial paleoclimatic proxies from throughout the Holocene which show fairly consistent broad trends in the climatic history of the North Atlantic region. Drawing from isotopic concentrations in ice cores, diatoms, pollen, and dendrochronological analyses, a clear period of elevated temperature, beginning at about 10,000 B.P and concluding at about 6,000 B.P precedes a slow and steady trend of cooling until present day

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Otto and Roberts, 2016  (Northern Hemisphere)

In addition to temperature records limited to the past 4000 years, data for the past few thousand years were tested. When the data were explored over the past 10,000 years, greater fluctuations in the temperature can be seen with a significant rise in temperature beginning at about 11,000 BCE and ending at 2000 CE with a maximum at about 5,000 BCE.

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Bügelmayer-Blaschek et al., 2016   (Greenland Ice Sheet)

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Present <

Foster et al., 2016 (Fan Lake, Antarctic)

The Antarctic and sub-Antarctic GDGT–temperature reconstruction for Fan Lake showed the warmest conditions between c. 3800 to 3300 cal yr BP with additional peaks in temperature at c. 2600 and 600 cal yr BP.

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Yamamoto et al., 2016  (NW Pacific)

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Jansen et al., 2016 (Norway)

We suggest that deviations in ELA fluctuations between Scandinavian maritime and continental glaciers around 7150, 6560, 6000, 5150, 3200 and 2200 cal. yr BP reflect the different response of continental and maritime glaciers to drops in total solar irradiance (TSI).

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Fortin and Gajewski, 2016 (Canadian Arctic)

A study of chironomid remains in the sediments of Lake JR01 on the Boothia Peninsula in the central Canadian Arctic provides a high-resolution record of mean July air temperatures for the last 6.9 ka …. Biological production decreased again at ~ 2 ka and the rate of cooling increased in the past 2 ka, with coolest temperatures occurring between 0.46 and 0.36 ka [460 and 360 years ago], coinciding with the Little Ice Age. Although biological production increased in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. … Modern inferred temperatures based on both pollen and chironomids are up to 3°C cooler than those inferred for the mid-Holocene.

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Barbara et al., 2016  (Antarctic Peninsula)

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Briner et al., 2016   (Greenland Ice Sheet)

The temperature decrease from the warmest to the coolest portions of the Holocene is 3.0 ± 1.0 °C on average (n = 11 sites). The Greenland Ice Sheet retracted to its minimum extent between 5 and 3 ka [5,000 and 3,000 years ago], consistent with many sites from around Greenland depicting a switch from warm to cool conditions around that time.
The temperature record, which integrates all seasons, shows rapid warming from the onset of the Holocene until ~9.5 ka [9,500 years ago], relatively uniform temperature at the millennial scale until ~7 ka [7,000 years ago], followed by ~3.5 °C temperature decline to the Little Ice Age [1250-1850 C.E.], followed by ~1.5 °C warming to today.  [Today’s Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures are 2.0 °C colder than the Early and Middle Holocene] .  The record also shows centennial-scale variability on the order of 1-2 °C, and a ~3 °C temperature oscillation during the 8.2 ka event.

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Brocas et al., 2016 (Tropical Atlantic)

[W]ithin the mid-LIG [Last Interglacial, ~125,000 years ago], a significantly higher than modern SST seasonality of 4.9°C (at 126 ka) and 4.1°C (at 124 ka) is observed. These findings are supported by climate model simulations and are consistent with the evolving amplitude of orbitally induced changes in seasonality of insolation throughout the LIG, irrespective of wider climatic instabilities that characterised this period.

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Gjerde et al., 2016  (Norway)

The resulting Pw record is of higher resolution than previous reconstructions from glaciers in Norway and shows the potential of glacier records to provide high-resolution data reflecting past variations in hydroclimate. Complete deglaciation of the Ålfotbreen occurred ~9700 cal yr BP, and the ice cap was subsequently absent or very small until a short-lived glacier event is seen in the lake sediments ~8200 cal yr BP. The ice cap was most likely completely melted until a new glacier event occurred around ~5300 cal yr BP, coeval with the onset of the Neoglacial at several other glaciers in southwestern Norway. Ålfotbreen was thereafter absent (or very small) until the onset of the Neoglacial period ~1400 cal yr BP. The ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) ~650-50 cal yr BP [1350 to 1950] was the largest glacier advance of Ålfotbreen since deglaciation, with a maximum extent at ~400-200 cal yr BP, when the ELA was lowered approximately 200 m relative to today.

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Yu et al, 2016 (Western Antarctica Peninsula)

The period at 900–600 cal B.P. was coldest as indicated by ice advance, abundance of kill ages from ice-entombed mosses exposed recently from retreating glacial ice, and apparent gap in peatbank initiation. Furthermore, the discovery of a novel Antarctic hairgrass (Deschampsia antarctica) peatland at 2300–1200 cal B.P. from the mainland Antarctic Peninsula suggests a much warmer climate than the present. … [T]he sea surface temperature record from Palmer Deep off Anvers Island suggests a pronounced climate warming of ~3°C at 1600–500 cal B.P. [Shevenell et al., 2011].

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Solomina et al., 2016 (Caucasus Mountains)

The climate was warmer and glaciers were likely receding in the beginning of the past millennium CE (the “Arkhyz break in glaciation”). … In this pass, remains of wood radiocarbon dated to 700 ± 80 BP  (1180–1420 CE) were buried in a 1.5-m-thick layer of alluvium (Kaplin et al., 1971; Kotlyakov et al., 1973). Currently, the upper tree limit is located 800–900 m below this elevation. … According to indirect estimates based on pollen analyses, the upper tree limit in the “Arkhyz” period was 200–300 m higher than today (Tushinsky, Turmanina, 1979). The remains of ancient buildings and roads were also found in the Klukhorsky pass at an elevation of 2781 a.s.l. [above sea level] (Tushinsky et al., 1966), and the glacier was still present at this elevation in the mid 20th century.  …  [I]n Central and East Transcaucasia, there are artificial terraces at elevations where agriculture is not currently possible and that there are remnants of forests in places where forests have not grown since the 16th century CE. ...
Turmanina (1988), based on pollen analysis, suggested that, in the Elbrus area, the climate during the “Arkhyz” time was dryer and warmer than in the late 20th century by 1–2 °C. … Solomina et al. (2014) determined the Medieval warming in the Caucasus to be approximately 1 °C warmer than the mean of the past 4500 years. According to the Karakyol palynological and geochemical reconstructions, the warm period was long and lasted for five centuries. Considering the suggestion of Turmanina (1988) that it was also less humid, the likelihood that many glaciers, especially those located at relatively low elevation, disappeared is very high.  … The maximum glacier extent in the past millennium was reached before 1598 CE.  The advance of the 17th century CE, roughly corresponding to the Maunder Minimum, is recorded at Tsey Glacier. … General glacier retreat started in the late 1840s CE and four to five minor readvances occurred in the 1860s–1880s CE.  In the 20th century CE, the continued retreat was interrupted by small readvances in the 1910s, 1920s and 1970s–1980s.

Bolch et al., 2016   (Himalayas, Karakoram)

Glaciers in the Hunza Catchment (Karakoram) are in balance since the 1970s … Previous geodetic estimates of mass changes in the Karakoram revealed balanced budgets or a possible slight mass gain since the year ~ 2000. Indications for longer-term stability exist but no mass budget analyses are available before 2000. Here, we show that glaciers in the Hunza River basin (Central Karakoram) were on average in balance since the 1970s based on analysis of stereo Hexagon KH-9, SRTM, ASTER and Cartosat-1 data. Heterogeneous behaviour and frequent surge activities were also characteristic for the period before 2000.

Lundeen and Brunelle, 2016  (Idaho, United States)

Together, the proxies suggest that the early Holocene experienced larger than average snowpacks but very warm summers. Warmer than modern summer temperatures were maintained through much of the mid-Holocene, but snowpacks decreased dramatically, creating the most extreme xeric conditions in the Holocene between ~7100 and 6000 BP.

Spolaor et  al., 2016 (Arctic Ocean, Region)

Researchers have found that 8000 years ago the Arctic climate was 2 to 3 degrees warmer than now, and that there was also less summertime Arctic sea ice than today.

MacGregor et al., 2016  (Greenland Ice Sheet)

[T]he interior of the GrIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] is flowing 95% slower now than it was on average during the Holocene [the last 9,000 years].

Sun et al., 2016  (China)

Comparing the climate between the mid-Holocene and present in the Xi’an area, the MAT [mean annual temperature] was about 1.1°C higher than today and the AP [annual precipitaion] was about 278 mm higher than today, similar to the modern climate of the Hanzhong area in the southern Qinling Mountains.

Paus and Haugland, 2016  (Scandinavia)

Around [9,500 years ago], pine suddenly established vertical belts of at least 200 m. These represent the highest pine-forests during the Holocene, ca. 210–170 m higher than today when corrected for land uplift. By this, summer temperatures at least 1–1.3°C warmer than today are indicated for the early Holocene thermal maximum around [8,500 to 9,500 years ago].

Easterbrook, 2016  (Greenland)

In the past 500 years, Greenland temperatures have fluctuated back and forth between warming and cooling about 40 times, with changes every 25–30 years. … Comparisons of the intensity and magnitude of past warming and cooling climate changes show that the global warming experienced during the past century pales into insignificance when compared to the magnitude of profound climate reversals over the past 25,000 years. At least three warming events were 20–24 times the magnitude of warming over the past century, and four were 6–9 times the magnitude of warming over the past century.

False Alarm: Spate Of New Studies Reject Claim Corals Are In Imminent Danger!

Coral reefs keep cool

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated by P Gosselin)

Coral horror stories have long been among the favorites of the media. Lately, however, a number of journalists have been taking a closer look at the state of the coral reefs. A good example is an article appearing in the German Spektrum der Wissenschaft (Spectrum of Science) on October 24, 2016, where Kerstin Viering did not allow research results to be swept away under the carpet:

Why some coral reefs are defying all the problems
Climate change, pollution, over-fishing: Coral reefs do not have it easy today. Some reefs, however, have been holding up amazingly well. A reason for optimism?”

Continue reading at Spektrum der Wissenschaft.

Currently research is making good progress. Slowly scientists are beginning to understand how corals are able to adapt to changed conditions. A press release from the University of Texas at Austin from November 7, 2016:

New Coral Research Exposes Genomic Underpinnings of Adaptation

Scientists at The University of Texas at Austin have observed for the first time that separate populations of the same species — in this case, coral — can diverge in their capacity to regulate genes when adapting to their local environment. The research, published today in Nature Ecology and Evolution, reveals a new way for populations to adapt that may help predict how they will fare under climate change.

The new research was based on populations of mustard hill coral, Porites astreoides, living around the Lower Florida Keys. Corals from close to shore are adapted to a more variable environment because there is greater fluctuation in temperature and water quality: imagine them as the more cosmopolitan coral, adapted to handling occasional stressful events that the offshore coral are spared. When researchers swapped corals from a close-to-shore area with a population of the same species from offshore waters, they found that the inshore-reef corals made bigger changes in their gene activity than the corals collected from an offshore reef. This enabled the inshore corals to adapt better to their new environment.

“It is exciting that populations so close together — these reefs are less than 5 miles apart — can be so different,” says corresponding author Carly Kenkel, currently affiliated with the Australian Institute of Marine Science. “We’ve discovered another way that corals can enhance their temperature tolerance, which may be important in determining their response to climate change.”

Differences in gene regulation — the body’s ability to make specific genes more or less active — can be inherited and are pivotal for adapting to environmental change. It was already known that separate populations often develop differences in average levels of gene activity, but now scientists have found that populations can also diverge in their ability to switch genes on and off.

“We show that one population has adapted to its more variable environment by developing an enhanced ability to regulate gene activity,” says Mikhail Matz, co-author of the study and an associate professor in the Department of Integrative Biology.

Researchers swapped 15 genetically distinct coral colonies from inshore with 15 colonies found offshore to see whether the corals would regulate their genes to match the pattern observed in the local population. After a year, the transplanted populations did show differences: Formerly inshore corals transplanted offshore changed their gene activity dramatically to closely resemble the locals, whereas offshore corals transplanted inshore were able to go only halfway toward the local gene activity levels. In short, corals that originated from the more variable, close to shore environment were more flexible in their gene regulation.

The lack of flexibility took its toll on the offshore corals, which did not fare well at the inshore reef and experienced stress-induced bleaching. Their higher bleaching levels were linked to the diminished ability to dynamically regulate activity of stress-related genes, confirming that flexibility of gene regulation was an important component of adaptation to the inshore environment.

“We saw different capacity for gene expression plasticity between coral populations because we looked at the behavior of all genes taken together instead of focusing on individual genes,” says Kenkel. “If we hadn’t, we would have missed the reef for the coral, so to speak.”

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation’s Division of Environmental Biology.

Ten days later the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute issued a hopeful press release showing that some coral reefs are tougher than long believed:

Corals Survived Caribbean Climate Change

Half of all coral species in the Caribbean went extinct between 1 and 2 million years ago, probably due to drastic environmental changes. Which ones survived? Scientists working at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) think one group of survivors, corals in the genus Orbicella, will continue to adapt to future climate changes because of their high genetic diversity.

“Having a lot of genetic variants is like buying a lot of lottery tickets,” said Carlos Prada, lead author of the study and Earl S. Tupper Post-doctoral Fellow at STRI. “We discovered that even small numbers of individuals in three different species of the reef-building coral genus Orbicella have quite a bit of genetic variation, and therefore, are likely to adapt to big changes in their environment.”

“The implications of these findings go beyond basic science,” said Monica Medina, research associate at STRI and the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History and associate professor at Pennsylvania State University. “We can look forward to using similar approaches to predict demographic models to better manage the climate change-threatened Orbicella reefs of today.”

To look back in time, the team of researchers working at the Smithsonian’s Bocas del Toro Research Station and Naos Molecular and Marine Laboratories collected fossils from ancient coral reefs and used high-resolution geologic dating methods to determine their ages. They compared the numbers of fossilized coral species at different time points. One of the best-represented groups in the fossil collections were species in the genus Orbicella. In addition to the fossil collections, they also used whole genome sequencing to estimate current and past numbers of several Orbicella species.

Within a single individual there are two copies of their genetic material, and in some instances, one copy is different than the other and is called a genetic variant. The authors first assembled the full genomic sequence of an individual from Florida and then, using it as an anchor, reconstructed the genetic variation contained within single individuals. Depending on the amount of the genetic variation at certain intervals across the genome, the authors were able to recover the population sizes of each species at different times in the past.

Between 3.5 to 2.5 million years ago, numbers of all coral species increased in the Caribbean. But from 2 to 1.5 million years ago, a time when glaciers moved down to cover much of the northern hemisphere and sea surface temperatures plunged, the number of coral species in the Caribbean also took a nosedive. Sea levels fell, eliminating much of the original shallow, near-shore habitat.

“Apart from the species that exist today, all species of Orbicella that survived until 2 million years ago suddenly went extinct,” write the authors. When huge numbers of species die out, it makes room for other species to move in and for new species to develop to occupy the space the others held.

Two species that grow best in shallow water doubled in number at about the same time that their sister species and competitor, the organ pipe Orbicella (O. nancyi) disappeared.

When a species declines during an extinction event, it loses more and more genetic variation and sometimes does not have much to work with during the recovery period. Scientists call this a genetic bottleneck. Orbicella was able to recover after the bottleneck.

“It’s incredible how predictions from genetic data correlated so well with observations from the fossil and environmental record,” said Michael DeGiorgio, assistant professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University.

“We see hope in our results that Orbicella species survived a dramatic environmental variation event,” said Prada. “It is likely that surviving such difficult times made these coral populations more robust and able to persist under future climatic change.”

“The in-depth analysis of population size in a now ESA-threatened coral, as well as the release of its genome and that of its close relatives (which are also threatened) would be of great interest to coral reef researchers addressing conservation issues,” said Nancy Knowlton, senior scientist emeritus at STRI, currently at the National Museum of Natural History.

Authors are from STRI, the National Museum of Natural History, Pennsylvania State University, University of Iowa, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hudson Alpha Institute of Biotechnology, Universidad Nacional Autónoma, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and University of Queensland School of Biological Sciences, Florida State University, Natural History Museum and the Systems Biology Institute.

The Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, headquartered in Panama City, Panama, is a unit of the Smithsonian Institution. The Institute furthers the understanding of tropical nature and its importance to human welfare, trains students to conduct research in the tropics and promotes conservation by increasing public awareness of the beauty and importance of tropical ecosystems. Website: http://www.stri.si.edu.

Prada, C., Hanna, B., Budd, A.F., et al. 2016. Empty niches after extinctions increase population sizes of modern corals. Current Biology.”

Already in June 2015 Sascha Karberg wrote an impressively balanced article in German weekly Die Zeit:

Corals remain cool
Water that is too warm lead to the bleaching of corals. However special genes could help protect the reef forming animals. They also appear to do fine with acidification.

Corals do not need to wait for the chance gene mutation that would make them fit for the climate warming – the needed gene variants are already at hand. Biologists have discovered this when the crossed corals from warm and old climate zones. In order to prevent the corals from dying off, it would simply be enough to switch corals from different latitudes so that the existing gene variants could spread,”, says Mikhail Matz of the University of Texas in Austin.

Read more in Die Zeit. Similar articles appeared at the Austrian ORF and the German Tagesspiegel.

What follows is the press release from the University of Texas at Austin dated June 25, 2015:

Corals Are Already Adapting to Global Warming, Scientists Say

Some coral populations already have genetic variants necessary to tolerate warm ocean waters, and humans can help to spread these genes, a team of scientists from The University of Texas at Austin, the Australian Institute of Marine Science and Oregon State University has found.

The discovery has implications for many reefs now threatened by global warming and shows for the first time that mixing and matching corals from different latitudes may boost reef survival. The findings are published this week in the journal Science.

The researchers crossed corals from naturally warmer areas of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia with corals from a cooler latitude nearly 300 miles to the south. The scientists found that coral larvae with parents from the north, where waters were about 2 degrees Celsius warmer, were up to 10 times as likely to survive heat stress, compared with those with parents from the south. Using genomic tools, the researchers identified the biological processes responsible for heat tolerance and demonstrated that heat tolerance could evolve rapidly based on existing genetic variation.

“Our research found that corals do not have to wait for new mutations to appear. Averting coral extinction may start with something as simple as an exchange of coral immigrants to spread already existing genetic variants,” said Mikhail Matz, an associate professor of integrative biology at The University of Texas at Austin. “Coral larvae can move across oceans naturally, but humans could also contribute, relocating adult corals to jump-start the process.”

Worldwide, coral reefs have been badly damaged by rising sea surface temperatures. Bleaching — a process that can cause widespread coral death due to loss of the symbiotic algae that corals depend on for food — has been linked to warming waters. Some corals, however, have higher tolerance for elevated temperatures, though until now no one understood why some adapted differently than others.

“This discovery adds to our understanding of the potential for coral to cope with hotter oceans,” said Line Bay, an evolutionary ecologist with the Australian Institute of Marine Science in Townsville.

Reef-building corals from species in the northern Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea are similar to those used in the study. There, too, reefs may benefit from conservation and restoration efforts that protect the most heat-tolerant corals and prioritize them for any restoration initiatives involving artificial propagation.

“This is occasion for hope and optimism about coral reefs and the marine life that thrive there,” Matz said.

In addition to Matz and Bay, the study’s authors were Groves Dixon, Sarah Davies and Galina Aglyamova at UT Austin and Eli Meyer of Oregon State University.

This study was supported by funds from the National Science Foundation and the Australian Institute of Marine Science.

View a slideshow of images from the Great Barrier Reef.”

 

Horrible Irony …Merkel Recently Said Germany Needed Immigrants: “Everywhere Truck Drivers Are Being Sought”

Germany is in shock after yesterday’s terrorist attack on a Berlin Christmas market, which is a stark symbol of German culture. The latest figures show 12 dead and 48 injured – some seriously. Also the Polish driver of the hijacked truck allegedly was killed.

Already accusations are flying back and forth, with some on the right claiming Merkel bears some responsibility for the attacks by allowing a tsunami of immigrants to flood across Germany uncontrolled in 2015. Meanwhile Merkel proponents and the media are accusing the right of exploiting the tragedy for political gains.

drudge

Influential U.S. conservative Drudge Report featured Tuesday Angela Merkel as having “blood on her hands”.

Amid the tragedy there’s the horrible irony that just some three months ago German national daily Die Welt here published a piece with the title:

Truck drivers wanted’ – Merkel gives refugees tips”

Die Welt reported that Merkel was working hard to “rapidly integrate the refugees” and called on industry to get involved. Merkel said that refugees would be able to trade in their driver’s licenses for a German one for 500 euros, but that of course loans need to be offered to help them finance it. Paying back the loan should be no problem, Merkel said:

When one earns, he can then pay this 500 euros back. Everywhere truck drivers are being sought.”

Merkel’s idea, it seems, is to give tens of thousands of Middle Eastern refugees driver licenses for semis.

The latest attacks is just the most recent in a series that have plagued the country since the recent wave of refugees.

Just two days ago, on Sunday, a Munich woman was raped and nearly beaten to death while jogging in the famous English Garden. The police were shocked by the sheer brutality of the attack. Currently there is no evidence linking the attack to a migrant.

In November, a 24-year old was attacked and raped in Munich as well.

Just weeks earlier the highly publicized case of the rape and murder of a 19-year-old medical student at the hands of a teenage Afghan refugee sparked outrage against the “open door” asylum policy of Chancellor Angela Merkel. The student was the daughter of EU parliamentarian and had done volunteer work for refugees.

Other terrorists attacks have occurred, with 4 being stabbed on a train earlier this year.

In one of Germany’s worst attacks, hundreds of women were sexually assaulted, attacked or robbed at New Year’s eve festivities in Cologne.

The UK tabloid “The Sun” here presents a summary of this year’s bloody attacks in the country.

Price for earlier policy negligence

The media, who are cozily in bed with Germany’s ruling grand coalition government, have been falling all over themselves praising the “calmness and professionality” of the authorities in dealing with the aftermath of the attack. Indeed they have done an excellent job. But one gets the sense that the praise is being used to distract the public’s attention from the government’s initial immigration policy failure and fiasco that led to the uncontrolled tsunami of “refugees” in the first place back in 2015.

Germany’s heightened security threat and overall anxiety would not exist today had it not been for the German government’s and EU’s border negligence.

Germany’s sense of security now violated

Germany’s sense of freedom and security have been violated. Citizen’s have had to change their habits and attitudes with respect to public safety. Citizens, especially women, no longer feel safe outside after dark and are opting to stay home. And those that wish to continue on as before now must summon up the courage to do so, knowing full well that public places and events are now targets. The carefree days are over, squandered by Merkel’s misguided do-gooding.

Increasingly Merkel is coming under massive fire for a string of policy failures over the past years that include the refugee crisis, renewable energy flop, Greece bailout, frayed relations with Russia and Turkey, European Union collapsing, and the slander of dissident views.

 

Scientists: 1930s Ice Melt Rates In Greenland, Iceland Were The Same As Today…No Net Ice Loss In 80 Years

“[T]he coincidence of the most recent phase of ice-frontal retreat…and warming summer temperatures is not unusual in the context of the last ~80 years.” — Chandler et al., 2016

All too often, scientific analysis of modern glacier and ice sheet melt rates is conveniently confined to the last 30 to 60 years.  Indeed, the common reference period for determining current surface mass balance estimates marks the three decades between 1961-1990, which “coincidentally” happens to contain some of the coldest temperatures of the last few hundred years — when glaciers were observed to be advancing relative to the period centered around the 1930s.   Contemporary scientists routinely reported on these observations (a rapidly cooling climate, advancing glaciers) in scientific journals.  For example:

Gordon, 1981   “Since about 1968/69 the glacier fronts have advanced by up to 158 m following a marked climatic recession [cooling] during the 1960s and early 1970s. In general, fluctuations of the glaciers have been in sympathy with prevailing climatic trends and show a relatively rapid response following temperature changes.”
Andrews et al., 1972    “Mean summer temperatures have declined throughout the 1960s to a level cooler than for approximately 40 yr.  … The net effect has been for heavier falls of snow in winter and with lower summer temperatures and therefore less melting (Jacobs et al, 1972), resulting in notably increased glacierization. … at least two corries snowfree in 1960 are presently occupied by incipient glaciers. …  The present  Neoglacial ice is nearly as extensive as the late glacial stade.”
Schneider, 1974    “In the last century it is possible to document an increase of about 0.6°C in the mean global temperature between 1880 and 1940 and a subsequent fall of temperature by about 0.3°C since 1940.  In the polar regions north of 70° latitude the decrease in temperature in the past decade alone has been about 1°C, several times larger than the global average decrease.”
Chi-chun and Pen-hsing, 1978     “Research on glacier fluctuations shows that the Little Ice Age was also experienced here with maxima occurring during the 19th century.  This was followed by a strong retreat from the 1930s with recent signs of the initiation of a new period of glacier advance.  … Our on-the-spot investigations, documental records and information local residents all tell us that, beginning in the thirties, the glaciers in Tibet underwent a period of strong retreating. The air temperature began to fall after the fifties. From meteorological records, we know that the temperature in the sixties was universally 0.7°C or so lower than in the fifties
Hollin, 1965     “‘Surges’ and ‘catastrophic advances’ in glaciers have received increasing attention recently.  More than forty such events have been reported from Alaska and northwest Canada alone.”

Recently published temperature reconstructions of the high Northern latitudes also indicate a significant drop in temperature (relative to the 1920s to 1940s) during this reference or baseline period (1961-1990).  For example:

Hasholt et al., 2016   “We determined that temperatures for the ablation measurement periods in late July to early September were similar in both 1933 and the recent period [1990s – present], indicating that the temperature forcing of ablation within the early warm period and the present are similar.”

holocene-cooling-greenland-southeast-hasholt-16

Box et al., 2009   “The annual whole ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming. … The 1955–82 cooling phase was most significant during autumn in east and southern Greenland.”

holocene-cooling-greenland-ice-sheet-1840-2007-box09-copy

So by directly comparing the modern warm phase (1990s-present) in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere to a cool phase (1961-1990), and by failing to include the 1920s to 1940s warm period in their baseline determinations, scientists can conveniently report “accelerated” ice melt rates for recent decades — and thus provide headline material for media outlets (and policy makers) actively promoting the “dangerous” global warming agenda.

‘Present-Day Changes Are Not Exceptional’

On the occasion when scientists extend their glacier or ice sheet studies back to periods earlier than the 1950s, a significantly non-alarming conclusion emerges that does not support the modern zeitgeist that says “catastrophic” and “unprecedented” ice melt is occurring today.  For example, in “Surface mass-balance changes of the Greenland ice sheet since 1866,” Wake et al., 2009  write:

“All SMB [surface mass balance] estimates are made relative to the 1961–90 average SMB and we compare annual SMB estimates from the period 1995–2005 to a similar period in the past (1923–33) where SMB was comparable, and conclude that the present-day changes are not exceptional within the last 140 years.”

Investigation Of Long-Term Glacier Melt Rates For Iceland Reveal No Net Change In 80 Years

Two new (2016) papers lend further support to the conclusion that there currently is nothing unusual happening in the cryosphere.  In their paper “Recent retreat at a temperate Icelandic glacier in the context of the last ~80 years of climate change in the North Atlantic region”, Chandler et al. (2016) compare 3 periods with high glacier-melt rates: 1936-’41, 1951-’56, and 2006-2011.  They find that not only were the temperature changes comparable for all three periods, but so was the rate and magnitude of ice recession.  In fact, the retreat rates were determined to be higher during the earlier periods (1930s, 1950s) than during the 21st century.

Chandler et al., 2016 (Iceland Glaciers)

“[W]e calculated ice-frontal retreat rates [Skálafellsjökull glacier, SE Iceland]  since the 1930s. From the calculated record of ice-front retreat, we recognised two pronounced periods of glacier recession [1936-’41 and 1951-’56] for comparison with the most recent phase of retreat (2006–2011). We undertook quantitative analysis to examine variability between these three periods of retreat, and showed that they are comparable both in style and magnitude. Analysis of climate data for SE Iceland also indicates that the three periods of ice-frontal retreat [1936-’41, 1951-’56, and 2006-’11] identified are associated with similar summer air temperature values, which has previously been shown to be a key control in terminus variations in Iceland. We, therefore, demonstrated that the coincidence of the most recent phase of ice-frontal retreat at Skálafellsjökull (2006–2011) and warming summer temperatures is not unusual in the context of the last ~80 years. This highlights the need to place observations of contemporary glacier change in a broader, longer-term (centennial) context.”

holocene-cooling-iceland-south-chandler-16

glacier-melt-rate-1930s-vs-2000s-iceland-chandler-16

Investigation Of Long-Term Ice Sheet Melt Rates For Greenland Reveal No Net Change In 80 Years

A total of 13 scientists (van As et al., 2016) contributed to another new paper entitled “Placing Greenland ice sheet ablation measurements in a multi-decadal context“, a comprehensive analysis of changes to the Greenland Ice Sheet since the 1880s.  Once again, the results do not advance the cause for alarm about modern ice sheet melt trends.  The longer-term temperature changes for the ice sheet indicate a sharp warming during the 1920s and 1930s, a pronounced cooling trend during the 1960s to early 1990s (which is once again used as the reference period for this study), and then a subsequent warming after about 1995.  Both temperature peak (1930s and 2006-’11) periods were similar in magnitude.

van As et al., 2016

[I]n southern Greenland ablation peaked significantly around 1930. While most of Greenland underwent relatively warm (summer) conditions in the 1930s (Cappelen 2015), this was most notable at the more southern locations, resulting in amplified ablation values according to our estimates. JJA [summer] temperatures were higher in 1928 and 1929 than in any other year of the Qaqortoq record, both attaining values of 9.2°C. This suggests that ablation in those years may have exceeded the largest net ablation measured on the Greenland ice sheet (2010).

holocene-cooling-greenland-ice-sheet-van-as-16

Although van As et al. (2016) indicate that it is “likely” that the amplitude of the ablation (melting) volume in recent decades has been more pronounced than during the 1930s, the depicted trend lines for the (4) Greenland Ice Sheet regions that extend back to at least 1900 indicate that 3 out of the 4 ablation amplitudes for the 1930s were comparable to, or exceeded, what has occurred in recent decades.

glacier-melt-rate-1930s-vs-2000s-van-as-16

In fact, a composite of the four trend lines (red) shown above suggests no significant differences in ablation rates between the 1920s-1930s and the 21st century.

glacier-melt-trend-greenland-ice-sheet-1920-2015-van-as-16

Other scientists (Fettweis et al., 2008, below) have previously reached the conclusion that modern ice sheet and glacier recession is not only not unusual in the context of the last century, the surface mass balance loss in recent decades may have yet to exceed the losses from the 1930s period.   When also considering that the ice sheet cooled and gained mass between the 1960s and 1990s, it would be fair to say that there has been no net mass loss for the Greenland Ice Sheet in the last 80 years, or since anthropogenic forcing is believed to have exerted an “unprecedented” and potentially “catastrophic” influence on the climate.

Fettweis et al., 2008    “The rate of warming in 1920– 1930 is the most spectacular as pointed out by Chylek et al. (2006). Finally, Greenland climate was colder around 1920 and, in the 1970s and 1980s. The temperature minimum (resp. maximum) seems to have occurred in 1992 after the Mont Pinatubo eruption (resp. in 1931). The warm summers of recent years (1998, 2003, 2005), associated with large melt extent areas (Fettweis et al., 2007), seem to be less warm than these of the 1930s, as also pointed out by Hanna et al. (2007).”
“The absolute minimum [surface mass balance] occurred around 1930 with a SMB anomaly near −300 km3 yr−1 . Secondary (minor) SMB minima appear to have occurred in 1950 and 1960, equalling the surface mass loss rates of the last few years (1998, 2003, 2006). … After the 1990s, the GrIS SMB decreases slowly to reach the negative anomalies of the last few years, although the summers of the 2000s were not exceptional compared to 70 yr ago”

holocene-cooling-greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-balance-fettweis-08

1977 Spiegel Warned Of Little Ice Age Soon: “Widespread Glaciation” …”Temperature Has Fallen 0.3°C”!

spiegel-1977Back in the 1970s, many media outlets warned of global cooling and even a possible coming ice age. For example here I wrote about how Spiegel in 1974 grimly reported of threatening global cooling and that the odds of global warming were “at best” only 1 in 10,000!

Current warm period “coming to an end”

It turns out that the flagship German weekly news magazine here also warned of global cooling on January 10, 1977, citing leading global climate scientists:

The current warm period, they forecast, is coming to an end.”

In the article Spiegel describes summertime conditions in Europe at the peak of the last ice age, some 18,000 years ago, which “American and European scientists have precisely reconstructed” and ascertained how it had been “very much warmer 120,000 years ago then it is today.”

Spiegel described the works of “Climap”, which had involved scientists from 17 universities charged with the goal of researching the “long term fluctuations of the earth’s climate and developing models for the long-term forecasts“. Also “Climap studied the interrelationships on a decadal scale between the world’s oceans, the atmosphere and the continents as well as the cosmic effects“.

Spiegel wrote how it had been discovered that ice ages had been the normal over the past million years and that the current Holocene had been just a break in the cold.

All of this had been driven by solar-earth orbital variations, among other theories that had been proposed: solar irradiance, cosmic dust, changing earth’s magnetic fields, volcanic aerosols, CO2 distribution over the oceans, polar ice cap extent, ocean currents, etc., the article wrote.

“Widespread glaciation”

Spiegel described that Climap expert James D. Hays, John Imbrie and Nicholas J. Shackleton had examined the Milankovitch cycles and this had led them to conclude that changes in the earth’s orbit had been the “fundamental cause” of the cycles between ice age and warm periods.

Spiegel quoted the scientists:

The trend for the next 20,000 years is headed for a widespread glaciation of the northern hemisphere. and a colder climate.”

Spiegel added:

The earth’s orbit, namely after having been extremely elliptical, is again approaching a circular form, which is characteristic for the ice ages.”

Temperature drop of 0.3°C since 1940s

Spiegel warned of dire consequences:

Since the mid 1940s, for example, the mean annual temperature has fallen 0.3° Celsius: and indeed snow and ice area during this time has expanded by more than a tenth. Also the droughts in the African Sahel zone and the past summers in Europe are being ascribed to the minimally seeming heat loss.”

CIA warning!

Spiegel also wrote that even the CIA had taken the findings very seriously:

America’s intelligence service in any case already summarized the Climap findings in a warning to the US government. The CIA prophesized that the climate would soon simulate soon once again the 1600 to 1850 so-called Little Ice Age — ‘a time of drought, hunger and political unrest’.”

 

Experts: Green-Preaching Germany To Miss 2020 Climate Targets By A Mile… “An Illusion”!

The online Germany-based International Business Forum for Regenerative Energies (IWR) here writes that the country will fail to reach its 2020 climate targets, despite tens of billions of euros invested in green energies such as wind and solar, and all its incessant green pontification.

An expert commission appointed by the government recently released its 5th Monitoring Report on the Energiewende (transition to renewable energies), which examined the progress being made by the German government.

Result: There has been no progress. Failure.

Germany had given itself the target of reducing CO2 emissions 40% by 2020 compared to levels in 1990 (just before the shutdown of East Germany’s rundown, energy-inefficient, communist-planned economy).

germany-annual-co2-emissions-jpg-uba

Chart source: UBA Umweltbundesamt (Federal Office of the Environment).

According to the 170-page Monitoring Report, Germany had seen a CO2 savings of 27.2% as of 2015. But the commission, made up of four experts, sees current German efforts as totally inadequate if it wishes to reach the 40% mark by 2020.

Indeed German CO2 emission reductions have stalled over the last 7 years (see chart above), despite 3 warmer than normal winters.

The country’s CO2 emissions in fact rose by 1% in 2015.

The commission concludes that there’s “a great need to act” if Germany wishes to reach its target. However, the recent action by the German government in fact appears to be just the opposite. Efforts to cut back on efforts to expand wind and solar power recently have been watered down. Moreover a surge of nearly a million refugees will only serve to boost demand for energy.

Overall the commission sees only a very low probability, near zero, of the country in fact reaching the target.

The IWR writes that the result “is no surprise” and that it already had been expected back in 2013. According to IWR Director Dr. Norbert Allnoch:

Achieving the climate targets by 2020 back then was already an illusion.”

Allnoch criticizes that he sees no way of reaching the targets. In a nutshell the German government is simply not doing anywhere near enough, and that it is really not anywhere near as serious about the endeavor as the country likes to have others believe it is.

Germany obviously has no intentions of fulfilling the Paris Agreement, and that all its talk about cutting greenhouse gas emissions is mostly bluff and moral grandstanding.

True the country has spent tens of billions of euros in its effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but as the last 7 years show, there’s been no result. This is probably very discouraging and painful to accept — and quite embarrassing.

 

Current Solar Cycle Weakest In 2 Centuries! And Grant Foster’s “Far-Fetched” Model Claims

The Sun in November 2016.  And models coming back to reality

By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)The star at the center of our solar system last month again approached bottom with its solar activity. The monthly mean for sunspot number (SSN) was 21.4. Just how low this is, is clearly illustrated by comparing it to other solar cycles. SSN in November was only 36% of the mean of the previous 23 cycles 96 months into the cycle. The data are plotted in the following chart:

Figure 1: The monthly SSN of solar cycle (SC) 24 (red) since December 2008 compared to the mean of the previous 23 observed solar cycles (blue) and the similar SC 5 (black).

Over the past 8 years of the current cycle, activity has been only 56% of the mean. The following chart shows all 24 solar cycles — 8 years into the respective cycle:

Figure 2: The activity of the previous 24 systematically observed cycles since 1755 is compared. The numbers result from the summed accumulated monthly anomalies from the mean value (blue curve in Figure 1) — 96 months into the cycle.

SC24 activity up to the current month is dropping rapidly. There are many indications of a protracted end of the cycle with few sunspots.

In January 2017 we will assess the sun’s polar fields. The suspense is building because what we suspect with respect to the next cycle is becoming more and more solid as we get closer and closer to the sunspot minimum. A quick look at the new data all points to another weak cycle ahead.

=====================================

And it is widely accepted that weak cycles are associated with cooling climate conditions. Little wonder an increasing number of scientists are retreating from runaway warming predictions.

Sexed up climate models

And as the evidence of much slower warming grows, climate modelers have been scrambling to get their models back in line with observations, Bosse and Vahrenholt write. A recent new paper appearing on November 30, 2016 has created some controversy. Thomas Knutson and his colleagues of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the NOAA at Princeton examined the warming slowdown we have seen since 1997.

They conclude that it is due to large internal variability, one that is larger than assumed by climate models. They find:

Nonetheless, if CMIP5 models overestimate the TCR (forced warming rate), internal climate variability may have also played a significant role in the late 20th century global warming.”

“Internal variability” is in fact just another name for natural factors, and the authors suspect that there is a significant probability of a reduced warming trend for the future – like we have been seeing since 1997.

Their findings confirm what a number of scientists have suspected already: CO2 has been greatly exaggerated as a climate-driving factor. Ocean cycles are turning out to be playing a major role and rising CO2 concentrations are not leading to a climate catastrophe after all. The climate catastrophe is only showing up in IPCC models.

Grant Foster’s far-fetched claims

Bosse and Vahrenholt write that proponents of high CO2 climate sensitivity are upset by these new, non-alarmist findings. Grant Foster at his site “Tamino” claimed flaws in the findings, commenting:

I consider its many, and very serious, flaws to be telling evidence that the whole “slowdown” idea was misguided from the very start.”

But Bosse and Vahrenholt claim that “Tamino“ first ought to carry out a few simple operations before making such far-fetched claims about peer-reviewed papers, and so present all trends in “Tamino’s“  own datasets since 1951 that are at least 15 years long – and all end at 2015.

Figure 4: Trends of global temperature (GMST) with the start year on x axis until 2015. The steep drop since 1997 is clear to see. The AMO trends (violet) are also plotted.

The slowdown in the warming rates after 1997 compared to the values after ca. 1975 are not what Tamino (Grant Foster) claims they are. Rather they are in fact real.

Figure 4 clearly shows that the AMO (violet) sets the pace, with its trend some 4 years ahead of the GMST.

Getting back to real physics

In summary observations show that there is a TCR that is not more than 1.35°K for a doubling of CO2 atmospheric concentration. Anything over that is just “modeling hype”, write Bosse and Vahrenholt.

What does it all mean? Vahrenholt and Bosse summarize?

When models predict a warming of 2°C, observations tell us it is actually only 1.4°C — which is really not a catastrophe.  So let’s keep the focus on physics, which deals with the evaluation of observations,  and stays away from catastrophe scenarios!”

 

Scientists: Greenland Is Now Much Colder With More Advanced Ice Sheet Margins Than 90% Of The Last 7,500 Years

Fifteen international scientists recently collaborated to assemble one of the most comprehensive analyses of temperature and ice sheet changes for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic ever produced.  Briner et al., (2016) synthesized over 100 records from a large and accumulating database to publish “Holocene climate change in Arctic Canada and Greenland” in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews.

The results are not good news for those who wish to maintain that today’s Greenland Ice Sheet is losing ice area at an unprecedentedly accelerated rate, or that modern temperature values for the Arctic region are dangerously high.  Greenland’s Ice Sheet has a larger ice extent now than it has had for most of the last 7,500 years; only the Little Ice Age period (~1300-1900 A.D.) had more ice mass.   And both regions (Canadian Arctic and Greenland) are still 1 to 2°C colder now than they were just a few thousand years ago.

The Greenland Ice Sheet Is Now At Nearly Its Highest Extent In The Last 7,500 Years

In the climate alarmism world, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been cooperating with the ice-is-melting-faster-than-ever paradigm for decades.   For headline-creators who warn of “ominous” and “catastrophic” rates of change — and how humans are to blame for most of it —  the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at “unprecedented” rates since the 1990s.  For example:  The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing 110 million Olympic size swimming pools worth of water each year.  … ‘The Arctic Is Unraveling,’ Scientists Conclude After Latest Sobering Climate ReportUnprecedented warming has sent the Arctic into uncharted territory, says latest NOAA report … Alert! Greenland’s Ice Now Melting At Catastrophic Speed

But what does  “unprecedented” actually mean with regard to ice loss or temperature change in the Arctic?  Effectively, precedence only extends back to the beginning of the 20th Century in most cases.  Some may only extend precedence back to the 1961-1990 period, which is the baseline for nearly all surface mass balance estimates.   So ice is said to be melting faster than any time since 1900, or since 1961-1990.   But consider that in 1900, with centuries of solar minima and large-scale volcanic eruptions leading to plummeting Little Ice Age temperatures,  the Greenland Ice Sheet had accumulated more ice and expanded its margins more than at any time in the last 7,500 years.  And as the 15 scientists contributing to Briner et al. (2016) reveal in this encapsulating graph from the paper, the Greenland Ice Sheet’s surface area has only negligibly retreated from that high point (~1900).  Today’s ice sheet extent is still among the highest of the Holocene.

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Briner et al., 2016     “The Greenland Ice Sheet retracted to its minimum extent between 5 and 3 ka [5,000 and 3,000 years ago], consistent with many sites from around Greenland depicting a switch from warm to cool conditions around that time.”

Taking a closer look at what this graph depicts, we first of all can clearly see that Greenland’s ice sheet reached its much-lower-than-now  minimum extent between 6,000 and 2,000 years ago, with the absolute lowest levels between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago.  This millennial-scale ice sheet recession took place at a time when an anthropogenic influence was non-existent, and when CO2 levels were safely in the range of 260 ppm – about 140 ppm lower than today’s levels (400 ppm).

And as mentioned above, it is also clearly discernible that the modern Greenland Ice Sheet extent has not only not fallen outside the range of natural variability, it barely even falls below the coldest centennial-scale periods of the last 10,000 years (the Little Ice Age).  Here is a much closer look (with annotations) at the last ~1,500 years of Greenland Ice Sheet area changes as shown in Briner et al. (2016):

holocene-cooling-greenland-ice-sheet-briner-16-anthropogenic-copy

Greenland and Canadian Arctic Temperatures Were 2°C Warmer Than Now For Most Of The Last 10,000 Years

Not only did Greenland’s ice sheet margins experience far greater retreat and higher melt rates during most of the last 7,500 years, but Greenland’s (and the Canadian Arctic’s) temperatures were also much warmer than today’s during the Holocene too.  Below are some of the summarizing comments from Briner et al. (2016) describing the temperature changes for this region.  Again, these much warmer temperatures occurred while CO2 levels were in the 260 ppm range.

“The temperature decrease from the warmest to the coolest portions of the Holocene is 3.0 ± 1.0 °C on average (n = 11 sites).  … The temperature record, which integrates all seasons, shows rapid warming from the onset of the Holocene until ~9.5 ka [9,500 years ago], relatively uniform temperature at the millennial scale until ~7 ka [7,000 years ago], followed by ~3.5 °C temperature decline to the Little Ice Age [1300-1900 C.E.], followed by ~1.5 °C warming to today.  [Today’s Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures are 2.0 °C colder than the Early and Middle Holocene] .  The record also shows centennial-scale variability on the order of 1-2 °C, and a ~3 °C temperature oscillation during the 8.2 ka event.”
“Reconstruction results [Canadian Arctic] showed that summers warmer than today (~1 to 2 °C) prevailed prior to 4-3 ka [4,000 to 3,000 years ago]. … At Qipisarqo Lake [Greenland], pollen data indicate a sharp increase in July air temperature of 3-4 °C at 7.5-7.0 ka [7,500 to 7,000 years ago] and higher temperatures until 5.5-5.0 ka [5,500 to 5,000 years ago]. After 5 ka [5,000 years ago], a progressive cooling of 1-2 °C is inferred.”

Another synopsized graph from the paper depicting the temperature changes for each region of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic yields a clear and decisive verdict: modern Arctic-region temperature changes are not unusual or unprecedented.

holocene-cooling-greenland-ice-sheet-briner-16-a-copy

Other New Papers Confirm That Modern Temperatures, Ice Loss Not At All Unusual For the Arctic Region

In the last few decades, the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been melting at a slower rate than it did for 95% of the last 9,000 years according to scientists publishing in the journal Science.  This finding is similar to the aforementioned conclusion that the ice extent for the Greenland Ice Sheet is now higher than it was for more than 90% of the last 7,500 years, rendering recent “losses” relatively insignificant and well within the range of natural variability.

MacGregor et al., 2016 [press release] (Greenland Ice Sheet)

“[I]ce flow in its [the Greenland Ice Sheet’s] interior is slower now than the average speed over the past nine millennia.”
“[T]he interior of the GrIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] is flowing 95% slower now than it was on average during the Holocene [the last 9,000 years].”

Fortin and Gajewski (2016) find that the central Canadian Arctic has not warmed in the last 150 years, and that the region was 3°C warmer than now just a few thousand years ago.

Fortin and Gajewski, 2016 (Canadian Arctic)

“A study of chironomid remains in the sediments of Lake JR01 on the “Boothia Peninsula in the central Canadian Arctic provides a high-resolution record of mean July air temperatures for the last 6.9 ka …. Biological production decreased again at ~ 2 ka and the rate of cooling increased in the past 2 ka, with coolest temperatures occurring between 0.46 and 0.36 ka [460 and 360 years ago], coinciding with the Little Ice Age. Although biological production increased in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. … Modern inferred temperatures based on both pollen and chironomids are up to 3°C cooler than those inferred for the mid-Holocene.”

holocene-cooling-canadian-arctic-fortin-16-copy

Spolaor et  al., 2016 [press release] (Arctic Ocean, Region)

“Researchers have found that 8000 years ago the Arctic climate was 2 to 3 degrees warmer than now, and that there was also less summertime Arctic sea ice than today.”

Other Recent Reconstructions Of Greenland, Canadian Arctic Climate Also Do Not Indicate ‘Unprecedented’ Modern Changes

Lecavalier et al., 2013 (North Greenland)

holocene-cooling-greenland-north-agassiz-ice-cap-lecavalier13-copy

Levy et al., 2013  (Greenland Ice Sheet)

holocene-cooling-greenland-east-levy13-copy

Andersen et al., 2004 (North Iceland Shelf, East Greenland, Vøring Plateau SSTs)

“Our results show that the Nordic Seas circulation system is highly sensitive to the large-scale insolation [surface solar radiation] changes as the general Holocene climate development follows closely the Northern Hemisphere insolation. … Century-scale surface current variability for the Holocene is shown to be 1 – 1.5°C for the Vøring Plateau and East Greenland shelf, and 2.5– 3°C on the North Ice-land shelf. … The first cooling [East Greenland Shelf SSTs] from 2400 to 2000 cal years BP was introduced by a 1.5°C temperature drop starting at 3000 cal years BP which culminated in an SST low around 2100 cal years BP. The second cooling occurred around 300 cal years BP and preceded a rapid warming [during the 1700s A.D.] , where SSTs rose with more than 1.5°C within 70 years. The third cooling took place in the second half of the last century. Until the last three centuries, SST variability atthis site has been 1°C, while SSTs varied with amplitudes of 1.5– 2°C during the last 300 years.”

holocene-cooling-north-iceland-shelf-andersen-04-copyholocene-cooling-east-greenland-shelf-andersen-04-copy

holocene-cooling-voring-plateau-andersen-04-copy

Cook et al., 2009  (Canadian Arctic)

holocene-cooling-canadian-arctic-cook-09

Remember The Larger Context For Claims Of ‘Unprecedented’ Arctic Change

Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook offers a cogent summarizing perspective on the modern levels of relative Arctic quiescence.

Easterbrook, 2016

“In the past 500 years, Greenland temperatures have fluctuated back and forth between warming and cooling about 40 times, with changes every 25–30 years. … Comparisons of the intensity and magnitude of past warming and cooling climate changes show that the global warming experienced during the past century pales into insignificance when compared to the magnitude of profound climate reversals over the past 25,000 years. At least three warming events were 20–24 times the magnitude of warming over the past century, and four were 6–9 times the magnitude of warming over the past century.”

So the next time we read a headline that uses words like dangerous and catastrophic and unprecedented to refer to Arctic temperatures or ice mass losses, let’s remember that the far larger context strongly suggests that modern changes in the Arctic are comparatively minor, even negligible.

Trump Already Wows The Nation …”Surge In Optimism Not Seen In Years!”

NEWSBREAK 12/15/2016: Dollar climbs to highest level in over 13 years!
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With their (fake) warnings that a Trump presidency would lead economic markets into turmoil, the Democrats and media critics have got to be feeling a little embarrassed. The opposite is actually occurring.

trump

Image cropped from: www.donaldjtrump.com/

Personally I haven’t seen anything like this since Ronald Reagan in the early 1980s, after the US had been through years of economic malaise. Trump is proving to be a real mover and shaker. Let’s look at some recent developments.

IBM

For starters, the news is out that technology giant IBM just announced it plans to hire 25,000 workers over the next 4 years and spend 1 billion dollars in training. Moreover, the Daily Mail reports: “The IBM jobs investment news came before the highly anticipated meeting Wednesday between Trump and the leaders of several major technology companies.” Expect more similar announcements in the weeks and months ahead.

Dow Chemical

Dow Chemical announced in a press release that it would invest in a “new, state-of-the-art innovation center” in Midland, Michigan. The innovation center will support approximately 200 research and development jobs in Michigan, including 100 newly created jobs while repatriating 100 jobs from other Dow facilities throughout the globe to Midland.

Carrier

Long cited by Trump as an example of industry leaving the US, air conditioner manufacturer Carrier now pledges to keep some 1000 jobs in the US, Fox News reports here. This news comes after the company told workers earlier in the year that it would be closing its plant and moving production to Mexico. Fox calls it a signal and that “more companies may follow.”

SoftBank

In another jobs and investment coup, the Washington Post reported earlier how President-elect Trump had just announced that Japanese telecom and internet conglomerate SoftBank would invest $50 billion in the United States and create 50,000 new jobs. That’s significant.

Foxconn

In the same article above, the WaPo also noted analysts speculate that Foxconn, a major supplier for Apple’s iPhones, could be responsible for the additional $7 billion in investment and 50,000 new jobs. However, Foxconn could not be reached for comment.

Ford

Politico reported recently that a Ford plant would now stay in Kentucky: “Donald Trump bragged …that the chairman of Ford Motor Company called him personally to inform him that the auto maker would be keeping one of its plants in Kentucky instead of moving it to Mexico.”

US Steel

US Steel Chief Executive Mario Longhi told that his company may be restoring up to 10,000 jobs in the United States, Fortune reports here.

Stocks record high

With the flurry of positive economic announcements in the wake of Trump’s election, stocks reacted and recently hit new high, wrote Marketwatch.com. Analysts say there’s still plenty of room for upward movement.

“Optimism skyrocketed like never before”

CNBC reports here that economic optimism has “skyrocketed like never before“. It writes:  “The election of Donald Trump has brought with it a surge in optimism in the United States over the economy and stocks not seen in years.”

So what’s happening? They say that nothing is as successful as success, and once it starts rolling, it just feeds on itself. This is what is happening now, and Trump has not even taken office yet.