Just How Sure Are The Sea Ice “Experts” About The Arctic Melt Continuing? Looks Very Close To Zero…

Recently the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany released a press clipping about polar sea ice, obstinately refusing to acknowledge that there is a trend change happening in the Arctic. It wrote:

The area of sea ice in the Arctic fell to a summer minimum of around 5.0 million square kilometres this year, which is about 1.6 million square kilometres more than the record low in 2012. However, according to sea ice physicist Marcel Nicolaus from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and Lars Kaleschke from the Hamburg Cluster of Excellence for Climate Research (CliSAP) this confirms the long-term downward trend in the Arctic.”

For what is considered to be a leading institute on the research of polar sciences, it sure seems to have a very poor understanding of the relationship between polar sea ice and other major external factors, such as ocean cycles, e.g. AMO and PDO, and the impacts of other natural cycles.

Note how the scientists seem to naively assume the general trend is linear and downward:

Arctic_Bet

Arctic sea ice extent. The AWI implies the trend will continue downwards. Chart from arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere

To me it is astonishing that sea ice scientists today are taking the linear trend of just a few years data and simply straight-line extending it out decades into the future, something we’d expect to see from a 9-year old primary school pupil. Yet they do point out that weather phenomena led to a particularly large reduction in sea ice the negative-record years of 2007 and 2012.

So just how sure are the scientists about their claims Arctic sea ice is headed downward? Let’s find out.

My bet is simple: I predict that the mean September Arctic sea ice extent for the years 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be safely above the September mean of the years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. This offer is open to the first scientist from any of the following institutes: AWI, PIK, NSIDC, MPI, CRU, NASA, or other alarmist institutes clinging to alarmist scenarios.

My e-mail address, in case you’re naïve enough to believe your models: pierre.gosselin@t-online.de

I’ll bet 1000 USD to go to a charity.

Listening to these scientists, it should be a hands down no-brainer bet. The consensus says the planet is heating. How confident are you really in your science?

 

“Self-Inflicted Apocalypse Fascination”! Germany’s Leading Daily Fed Up With End-Of-World Scenarios, Climate Catastrophe!

Germany’s major media takes a landmark step, one could argue.

At their Die kalte Sonne site, geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and chemist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt point out a recent article appearing in Germany’s no. 1 daily by circulation (2.5 million), Bild. Apparently the Axel Springer publication is getting fed up with all the global warming catastrophe nonsense.

Note that Bild is the world’s 6th largest newspaper.
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Bild daily has had enough of the climatic end of the world  “Apocalypse? No!”
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt

Bild daily has had enough of the constant screaming of alarm, and expressed it in very clear terms on September 11, 2014:

World refuses to end: Apocalypse? No!

Ozone hole, bird flu, Mayan curse or El Niño: How occupational pessimists, esoteric eggheads, astro-kooks and eco-freaks constantly want to talk us into the end of the world.

For 30 years we feared the ozone hole that had exposed us without protection to insidious UV rays: Until Wednesday. Then all of a sudden the UN announced: The ozone layer is well on its way to regeneration. This was not the first time that creepy end-of-world scenarios turned out to be a mix of fear-mongering and self-inflicted apocalypse fascination, [...]

4. Climate change is melting the poles

Hardly anything in science is more at loggerheads than the question of to what extent man causes climate change. It’s an undisputed fact that the amount of carbon dioxide and other ‘greenhouse gases’ in the air has risen strongly since industrialization, recently at a record level, and also the rise in global mean temperature (currently globally at 0.13°C per decade). But on the other hand the warnings of the dramatic melting of the poles and horror flooding of the poor Pacific islands have proven to be exaggerated. Currently the sea level is rising 3.2 mm per year. And the melting at the poles? Last summer the sea ice area in the Arctic compared to a year earlier rose 60%. 20 ships had to be rescued by ice breakers.”

Read the entire article at bild.de.

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Adding to Vahrenholt’s and Lünings piece, in its article Bild brings up 8 once claimed end-of-world scenarios that never came true: 1) acid rain/forest die-off, 2) Mayan Calendar, 3)  2014/2015 El Niño, 4) poles melting/climate change, 5) bird flu, 6) Nostradamus, 7) 1910 Haley’s Comet, and 8) nuclear inferno.

Bild sarcastically ends the part about the climate catastrophe with a photo of a semi-submerged Brandenburg Gate with the caption:

The Brandenburg Gate has remained completely spared by the ‘worst environmental catastrophe since Chernobyl’.”

Glad to see Bild is taking this step when it comes to the kooky climate catastrophe. It served them well, but now they are moving on.

 

German DWD Weather Service Reverses Earlier Climate Forecasts, Thus Confirm They Are Loads Of Bull-Manure

Some years ago German “climate experts” were all forecasting hot, dry summers for Germany. But now, after a series of wet summers, they are telling us we have to expect wet summers in the future.

Nobody knows what to believe anymore. One day they say prepare for this, and the next day they say prepare for that.

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski here reports on the German DWD Weather Service’s summer review, which highlights the heavy rainfalls and severe thunderstorms that hit Germany. Also the DWD hints at what Germans should expect in the future. Suddenly, earlier warnings and prognoses of hot and dry 2003-like summers have given way to forecasts of wetter summers.

Spiegel’s Bojanowski writes (my emphasis):

Precipitation, like that in July, will increase in frequency as a result of the expected climate change, prophesizes the DWD. Simulations [computer models] had shown that a warmer planet at the end of the century could see 10 to 17 days per year more rainy low pressure systems, reported Vice President of the DWD, Paul Becker, on Monday in Berlin.”

Becker loves the media limelight. Here the DWD has made a 180° turn and is now claiming we should expect rainier and wetter summers – so forget all the earlier forecasts of hot, dry summers.

Earlier computer summer climate forecasts

Just a few years ago all the talk was about hot. dry summers and crop damage.

For example FOCUS magazine here warned in 2009 for the eastern part of Germany, citing the DWD itself:

Summers will become hotter, and less rain will fall. Already the changes are visible as people in Brandenburg experienced last summer an acute danger of forest fires. That this is no exception, rather it is a part of the trend and is shown by other datasets of the German Weather Service (DWD), which confirm that the temperature has risen over the last 30 years  – the DWD has reliable data for this time period.”

Moreover in 2007 FOCUS cited Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg: “For example in the eastern part of the country summer will be like at the Mediterranean“. She also claimed major rivers in Germany could sink to extremely low levels during the summers. FOCUS added: “While summers will tend to be more dry, winters will be considerably wetter, according to analyses by the meteorologist.”

The German website www.energie-umwelt quoted daily Ostsee Zeitung, which wrote:

According to the model in summer there will be on average 30% less precipitation, whereby foremost the northeast and southwest of Germany will be hit.”

Germany’s flagship daily the FAZ here l presented a commentary by former Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) scientists Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, who proclaimed:

Over the summer rainfalls in almost all of Germany have decreased. Our winters are becoming wetter. The new Germany is characterized by dry-hot summers and warm wet winters.”

Also Spiegel featured forecasts of warmer and drier summers, writing in 2009: “Computer simulations have yielded that the Mediterranean climate will spread further and further north due to climate change. [...] The uninterrupted sequence of warm summer days and extremely hot days will make ‘everything quite uncomfortable’. Never mind the damage for farmers whose fields will dry up.”

The reality: 10 of the last 11 summers have been wetter than normal, or normal

So how accurate were all these German climate forecasts? 10 of the last 11 summers have been either wetter than normal, or normal. In short, the computer simulations got it all wrong.

Now the DWD wants us to believe that future summers in Germany will become wetter and wetter. They’ve forgotten what weather cycles are! That’s how bad the science of meteorology seems to have gotten at the DWD.

Bojanowski summarizes in his recent article:

Simulations from the Austrian ZAMG Weather Service on the other hand have not shown any increase in so-called Vb weather systems from the southeast for the future – that shows how uncertain the prognoses are.”

In a nutshell: you’re better off consulting a tarot-card fortune-teller for your climate forecasts.

 

Mainstream Journalism Remains Catatonic As Antarctica Sees Year-Long Series Of Record High Sea Ice Extents

Here’s proof that mainstream media journalism is either sloppy and just too lazy to check the data themselves, or is catatonically stuck in their now 18-year long illusion of global warming.

Recently a number of leading media outlets trumpeted (loudly) scary claims of “accelerating polar ice melt”. For example last May Germany’s leading online financial daily Handelsblatt cited a NASA study appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters and reported: “Polar ice melting much faster than assumed“, and warned of sea levels rising more than a meter.

antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2014_day_257_1981-2010_Sunshine

Antarctica sets satellite-era all time record high sea ice extent. Source: sunshinehours.wordpress.com

It’s obvious that neither journalists and nor NASA scientists have been looking at what is really happening. Antarctica has spent much of the current year smashing one daily maximum sea ice record after another. Today we see that Antarctic sea ice has totally smashed the all-time satellite-era record (see chart above). So far not a peep on that from the German mainstream media.

Instead it’s been all about meltdown. Citing the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, German news weekly Stern wrote: “The ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting at record speed, according to satellite measurements.

Let’s wait and see if the reality-disconnected Stern will report on the record Antarctic sea ice in the days and weeks ahead. In the meantime we just have to think they and the AWI are really reporting on a different planet, one perhaps made of cheese.

Last month Spiegel here cited a study by Heinrich Miller of the AWI and reported that “both polar caps are melting more rapidly than originally thought“.

Obviously the record high ice extent at the South Pole hasn’t made an impression on Spiegel. To be fair, when the reader wades deeper into the Spiegel article, we find out that the rapid south polar melting they write ABOUT is actually restricted to the West Antarctic Ice Shelf, an area that is only 1% of Antarctica’s total surface area and not representative of the South Pole.

As the chart above indicates, we can expect to see more smashed all-time records in the days ahead. It will be interesting to see if the media and scientists remain in their 18-year long catatonic state of a melting and warming planet illusion.

 

Spooky Pause…Solar Activity Now Has Leading German (Warmist) Science Journalist Asking About “Threat Of A Little Ice Age”

Science journalist Michael Odenwald at the German news weekly FOCUS used to be quite the warmist, and maybe he still is. But his latest article here tells us that he may be opening up to other climate change explanations: natural factors such as solar activity.

Solar Activity NASA

Solar activity has quieted over the last years. Photo image: NASA

Odenwald’s article focusses on the sun’s recent solar activity, noting that the current cycle has only been about as half as active as normal and that the “sun in the second half of the 20th century was unusually active over several cycles.” He then notes how the earth’s climate has suspiciously stopped warming since the sun went quiet.

“Our planet could cool down”

Before citing the works of geophysicist Ilya Usoskin of the Finnish University Oulu, Odenwald writes:

The current low activity of the cosmic oven has possible dramatic consequences for our planet: Our planet could cool down. Perhaps the quiet sun is hidden behind another phenomenon over which scientists have long been wondering about: At around the year 2000 global warming came to a halt.”

Odenwald also informs readers that the high level of solar activity from 1950 bis 2009 indeed had been an outlier and that it is clear that “the global temperature, which has increased for more than 100 years, rose most strongly from 1975 to 2000. According to the IPCC the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012 in the northern hemisphere was the warmest in 1400 years. Roughly calculated it coincides with the most recent Grand Maximum.”

Warnings of a little ice age

Odenwald also writes that some climatologists believe “the real driver of climate change is our sun. Some are even warning of a new little ice age.”

 

Global CO2 Fight Evaporating…Climate Experts Concede “Minimal Willingness To Really Reduce Emissions”

CO2 vs TempGerman center-left, climate alarmist daily Die Zeit here writes about the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which states atmospheric greenhouse gases have reached “a record high”. The results are based on data from 2013.

Chart Source: www.c3headlines.com

What is interesting about the Die Zeit piece is that it now talks about the oceans’ role on climate, which is getting more and more attention from climate scientists and the media lately. Die Zeit quotes Wendy Watson-Wright of the UNESCO Ozeanography Commission:

It is high time that in climate discussions the oceans become a central element as the driver of the global climate and dampener of climate change.”

Granted the spooked scientists are now conjuring up ideas to explain how the absorption of CO2 by the oceans could later lead to even worse climate scenarios, but here we see they are no longer able to deny the oceans’ role as they had always done before.

Die Zeit also writes that efforts by the global community to curb greenhouse gases have been fruitless so far and blames the “growing global economy” for the rising levels of CO2. Here we see the glaring paradox: More CO2 is leading to more prosperity, yet climate alarmists are always telling us the less CO2 would lead to better living when in fact it just doesn’t.

“Minimal willingness to really reduce emissions”

There’s also another reality that can no longer be denied. Die Zeit, perhaps unwittingly, confirms that the global community has lost interest in the futile pursuit of attempting something that is simply unachievable. It quotes a climate expert (emphasis added):

Also climate scientists such as Martin Claussen, Director of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and Professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, are not surprised by the results of the report. ‘In view of the political situation and the minimal willingness to really reduce emissions, we expect nothing other than a further incrse in CO2 concentrations.'”

The movement has definitely lost steam. There’s probably reasons other than economic ones as to why politicians have lost interest in punishing voters with painful mandatory CO2 reductions. One reason seems to be that politician are increasingly becoming aware that CO2’s impact on climate had been grotesquely inflated in the first place (see chart above). Depending on the dataset used, global temperatures have not risen in over 18 years, and have actually been cooling over the last several years.

Obviously politcians are having doubts about the sustainability of the global warming scare, and are probably even relieved that they no longer have to deal with the unpopular politics of demanding that people make do with much less.

Die Zeit quotes WMO General Secretary Michel Jarraud:

The greenhouse gas report shows us that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is long way from going down. We have to reverse this trend, and reduce the emsissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases across the board. We’re running out of time.”

Obviously many politicians have stopped listening. Almost two decades of no warming tends to have that affect.

 

German Professor: 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Falls Below Long-Term Mean…North Atlantic Heat Content Plummets!

What follows is the Arctic part of Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt’s and Frank Bosse’s recently posted article: The sun August 2014, the internal variability of the climate and the latest on Arctic ice. Time permitting, I will do the translation of the solar part a little later.
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The Latest News On Arctic Ice

By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

In our column from the previous month, we took a look at the ice volume in the Arctic. Since then summer has come to an end and the data for the May-August period are now available from PIOMAS.

If one computes the loss in ice volume (the melt) for each individual year from May 1st to August 31st of each year, we get a surprise:

Figure 4: Annual Arctic sea ice volume loss (thousands of cubic km) according to PIOMAS (blue) compared with the mean value 1980-2013 (black) and standard deviation (gray).

After the very high melt rates of the 2007-2012 period, the trend reversed in 2013 and especially in 2014 when the melt fell below the long-term average. What could be the reasons for this? Currently one can only speculate. One clue can be taken from a study by Mojib Latif from the year 2013:

It was suggested that the AMOC might be capable of influencing Arctic sea ice on this time scale through the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Arctic Ocean.”

We’ve reported on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on several occasions, the last time here. Could it be that the AMOC acts as a decisive internal component of variability for Arctic ice melt? Let’s carry out a short plausibility check: The impact of the AMOC can be especially well depicted by the course of the heat content of the upper 700 meters of water in the area of the North Atlantic between 45°N – 60°N and 60°W – 10°W.

And what do we see?

Figure 5: Heat content south of the polar Atlantic until June 2014 (Diagram from Climate Explorer)

We see a real plummet over the last few months, which by the way was anticipated at the beginning of the year as we reported here.

The claims made by Prof. Mojib Latif et. al. have thus withstood this test. Is that the entire explanation? Probably not. In any case, the internal variability of our climate in many ways plays a far greater role than models and some climate scientists claim. Should that be the case, then the following must be assumed: The sensitivity of our climate with respect to greenhouse gases is not as high as some (97%??) have assumed so far.

In other words: The 21st century climate catastrophe is not taking place.

 

Spiegel: Germany’s Large-Scale Offshore Windpark Dream Morphs Into An Engineering And Cost Nightmare

The print 35/2014 edition of Spiegel magazine focuses on the growing failure of Germany’s first ambitious offshore wind energy project, BARD Offshore 1, which aims to be a model for the world in providing clean, green energy on a large scale.

Bard Offshore windpark

BARD 1 windpark spooks the entire German offshore wind industry, plagued by major technical problems with no end in sight. Photo: Bard.

So far things hardly could have gotten any worse technically, and now financially and legally. For Germany, a highly admired nation when it comes to science, engineering, and technical prowess, the large scale energy project threatens to morph into an embarrassment of monumental dimensions. See more background here and here.

Fried electrical filters

The trouble surrounds the BARD 1 offshore windpark in the North Sea. Originally the park had been officially opened last year in August, but had to shut down almost immediately because of technical faults.

Then in March, 2014, engineers tried once again to bring the massive windpark online, again they were met with failure as “wild current” fried filters an offshore electrical converter station after a just a few mere hours.

Today, 6 months later, it appears engineers are not any closer to finding a solution.

Lost power valued at 340 million euros

The print edition of Spiegel writes that engineers are still scrambling to sort out the technical problems involved in bringing power from 80 turbines 100 km offshore through a converter station, and then onshore to markets. The project has now been delayed more than one year and Spiegel estimates that the lost power generation could be as high as 340 million euros in value.

Lawyers now getting involved

As the delays grow and financial losses mount, the investors and banks who had poured billions into the project are getting increasingly nervous. Spiegel writes that not only the hunt for the root cause of the technical problem is feverishly underway, but so is the hunt to find the responsible parties. Spiegel writes:

Indeed not only the engineers have been working feverishly on the repairs, but also lawyers are now involved. In the meantime everything has turned to the question of who is responsible for the fiasco – and the costs.”

Spiegel: “problem for entire green industry”

The problems at BARD 1 are so serious that Spiegel writes it is “a problem for the entire green energy industry“. The Trianel Windpark Borkum, Germany’s second major offshore wind project, is scheduled to come online this month, but now no one is sure whether or not the park will operate smoothly, Spiegel reports.

“It’s about a faulty total system”

The problem, Spiegel writes, is the great distance the windpark is located from the coast, which makes it impossible to bring the power onshore with conventional technology. The power cannot be transmitted through an underwater cable as alternating current, but rather must be transmitted as DC current. Unfortunately that task is proving not easy to manage.

Spiegel cites an expert on whether it will be possible to solve the big problems. Hans-Günter Eckel, Professor of Power Electronics at the University of Rostock:

Most likely there isn’t a single thing that is responsible, but rather it’s about a faulty total system. It’s going to require patience. It’s a completely new and complex technology.”

Spiegel sums it up:

The industry is nervous. At Trianel they have put off the decision to build an additional 200 MW windpark until further notice.

Suddenly everyone is now playing it safe – waiting to see if BARD 1 will make it. Finally they are beginning to think about whether the whole project is feasible or not – something that should have been done years and years ago.

One thing is becoming very clear: In the mad rush to green energy, investors and politicians leaped before they looked. Warnings were abundant, but were simply dismissed as offhand. Now the investors and proponents are moaning loudly about the hard landing that is coming soon.

Hat-tip: hajo.

Swiss News Weekly Calls IPCC Lead Author Thomas Stocker “A Butler For Politicians”! Scientists Grow Shriller

As climate observations continue their now obscene divergence from the earlier IPCC model projections, some media outlets are becoming harsher in their criticism of a science that increasingly appears corrupt and politicized. Moreover climate scientists are looking ever more shrill and desperate.

Hat-tip: hajo.

A recent feature story by Markus Schär in the print edition of Swiss news weekly Weltwoche even goes so far as to call IPCC lead author Thomas Stocker a “butler for politicians”. Weltwoche’s introduction reads:

Climate scientists, foremost some from Switzerland, are issuing increasingly louder warnings of catastrophe. This is because next year the global community should obligate itself to a strict treaty on protecting the climate. Despite the alarm, hardly anyone desires to keep playing along.”

Weltwoche adds later in the article that the way things stand now, the chances that of a new binding treaty getting ratified “are close to zero“.

As a result global warming alarmists are mounting another scramble to salvage a hypothesis that is increasingly looking unsustainable.

With the next large climate conference in Lima, Peru in December, more than ever scientists are coming under pressure to explain why warming has stopped and the models have been so embarrassingly wrong so far. The steam (science) that is supposed to be powering climate policy forward has blown a major gasket. Ironically science is beginning to act as a brake.

Weltwoche writes that the final (up-to-now confidential) Synthesis Report scheduled for release in October is designed to salvage the movement and supply the necessary urgency to get the binding climate treaty process to replace the expired Kyoto Protocol back on track. Here Weltwoche writes: “Dramatic proclamationS are in demand in order to wake up the global public.” It adds:

The authors of the Synthesis Report, among them as always are environmental activists, have to threaten with an apocalypse.”

Clearly among those involved in the effort, Weltwoche writes, are Swiss scientists Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern and Reto Knutti of the ETH Institute, a leading climate modeling center.

As part of the effort to rescue the alarmism, Weltwoche describes how Reto Knutti, once a student of Stocker, was the lead author of a recent paper that systematically analyzed the reasons behind the global warming pause. The paper concluded that it was due to ocean cycles and solar activity, and that these factors merely needed to be adjusted in the models, and so there was “no reason to doubt the newest climate models“.

But Weltwoche writes Knutti’s paper got “more ridicule than praise worldwide“. Weltwoche quotes the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP):

“Unwittingly the study only proves once again that the IPCC got it all wrong with its claims of 95% certainty.”

Weltwoche then informs how there have been a number of recent papers showing that the sun is a major driver in climate change, citing papers by Joos, Beer, and even Stocker himself. The Swiss weekly also sharply criticizes the “method” used by climate scientists who rather than applying the scientitfic method, stubbornly insist their theory can’t be wrong:

The climate scientists, on the other hand, have been working a quarter century using all means to prove their theory. When they fail to do so, they instantly conjure up – like Reto Knutti – a new hypothesis.”

 

German Scientists Ridicule New York Climate Conference As Major World Leaders Decline To Show Up

German scientists Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning ridicule the New York climate conference nobody is going to. Enjoy!
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Imagine there’s a climate conference, but no one goes

By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

Imagine there’s a climate conference, but no one goes. Already months ago South Korean UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon busily sent out invitations to world leaders, kindly requesting them to appear at the Climate Change Special Conference in New York on 23 September 2014. The aim of the conference is to agree on concrete actions for a CO2 reduced world in order to curb a menacing climate catastrophe. At the German Huffington Post Ban Ki-moon set forth his underlying motivation for September 2014 conference(translated from the German):

I have travelled the world in order to see the impacts with my own eyes. From the Arctic to the Antarctic, from low-lying islands of the Pacuífic, which are threatened by rising sea levels, to the melting glaciers of Greenland, the Andes and the Alps. I have seen expanding deserts in Mongolia and in the Sahel Zone, and threatened rainforests in Brazil. Everywhere I have spoken with the affected people who are deeply worried about the threat to their way of life and their future because of climate change.”

Dear Mr General Secretary: If you really wish to cut back on CO2 emissions, then you should NOT jet around the globe in your UN jet to supposedly see climate change with your own eyes. Perhaps you have heard that the Pacific Atolls are living corals that are growing along with sea level rise. The glaciers already melted before, 1000 years ago during the Medieval Warm Period when it was as warm as today. Currently the Sahel desert regions are not expanding as you claim, rather they are becoming greener. Moreover the rainforests of Brazil are threatened foremost by deforestation thanks to palm oil and biofuels. That is something to be really worried about, and not about climate change.

As opposed to the UN General Secretary, many world leaders have obviously realized that the science is overheated. An increasing number of scientists are distancing themselves explicitly from the catastrophe mindset. After 16 years of no global warming, the basis for trust between policymaking and the IPCC scientists is sustainably disturbed. We believed you and you’ve disappointed us, the scathed politicians bemoan behind closed doors.

So it is little surprise that hardly anyone has the desire to attend the Climate Summit Circus. Already in May, 2014, German Chancellor Angela Merkel respectfully declined -she had other more important appointments. What could they possibly be about? Even today there is still no entry in Merkel’s Online  appointment book for the 23rd of September. Perhaps an appointment with the hairdresser that can no longer be put off? Crochet evening with good friends? Let’s keep it a surprise for now.

In the middle of August 2014 India Prime Minister Narendra Modi also declined the invitation to attend. India today is the world’s third largest CO2 emitter. Perhaps someone in New Delhi got cold feet over the requested “concrete measures”. Or perhaps they simply looked at the latest global temperature charts.

Also in Peking they were not amused. Suddenly the world’s largest CO2 emitter, China, no longer has much desire to show up in New York. Chinese Prrsident Xi Jinping wasted little time in canceling his flight ticket. Nothing will result from all the negotiations anyway, the UN needs to know.

No German Chancellor, no Indian Prime Minister and no Chinese President. Consequently the UN General Secretary became visibly nervous and had to make late nominations. He was able to find a person -in the political little leagues: Bonn’s Lord Mayor Jürgen Nimptsch cordially expressed his willingness to travel to the Conference. Ban Ki-moon was most pleased, and the conference was saved. Now if all citizens of Bonn made massive efforts, then they would be able to offset the Indian and Chinese CO2 surpluses of the next few years in about an estimated 2 billion years.

And things don’t look all that rosy when it comes to a climate agreement. The famous Kyoto-Protocol expired at the end of 2012. At that climate conference in Doha, 144 countries promised to vote to extend the treaty by 2020. So far today 11 countries have signed the extension document. In the meantime, have the other 133 countries reconsidered? So far not a single one of the 28 EU countries have signed on, also not Germany. But already Mauritius and Micronesia are on board (they would be beneficiaries of climate protection payments).

The climate alarmism-driven US-President Barack Obama also has realized that it no longer makes sense to strive for a large, new international climate treaty. Realistically it would never work anyway. In Paris at the end of 2015 there preferably will be a non-binding treaty. World leaders would more likely sign that. After all, they would not have to fulfill it…especially when they lose desire to do so…

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Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning are the authors of CO2-skeptical book The Neglected Sun, which correcty downgraded CO2 climate sensitivity and forecast the the modest cooling that is now taking place.

 

Forecast March-2015 Solar Eclipse Has Power Grid Operators Distressed…”Dangerously Destabilized”

One thing we can be predicted with very high certainty: On March, 20, 2015 most of Germany will see a partial yet substantial eclipse of the sun.

40 gigawatts of rated power blocked in just minutes!

Normally that would be no big deal. But for the first time in history, due to Germany’s massive installed solar capacity of 40 gigawatts, an eclipse of the sun could mean a collapse of Germany’s intense power grid, with possible ramifications for the European power network.

SE2015Mar20T.gif

Animation: A. T. Sinclair/NASA (http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/.html)

Today’s print edition of Spiegel features an entire story on the coming event, should skies be clear. At it’s online site here it gives a preview of the upcoming event, writing:

The German power grid operators are dreading March 20, 2015. On this day Germany will see a partial solar eclipse during the morning. Should there be no clouds in the sky at this time, all solar power generating systems all over the country would be feeding in drastically less power into the grid in just a matter of minutes – and the grids would become dangerously destabilized.”

Already grid operators are scrambling to avoid such a scenario, and are considering refusing the feed in the power of large solar power plants on that day. Even though the eclipse will sweep across Europe around mid morning, a time well below peak solar power production, no large enough conventional back up system is on hand to react that quickly and that massively on such short notice. Another possibility would be to request large energy consumers in industry to scale back their consumption for the period the eclipse will have an impact.

German T-Online writes:

The shadow of the solar eclipse on March 20, 2015 will sweep across the North Atlantic. Thus in North Germany almost 83% of the sun will be blocked, so reports the website sonnenfinsternis.org. In South Germany it will still be at least 67%. Starting at 50 percent coverage, a solar eclipse is easy to notice.”

Warming Defied…Meteorologists Again Pointing To Another “Piercing Cold Winter” Ahead

Correction: Yesterday I had the wrong chart up (2013). Now the 2014 winter chart is up.
======================================

This September is bringing with it already the first hints of winter for North America with snow predicted to fall over a vast area of the upper western USA, perhaps as far south as Denver, says meteorologist Joe Bastardi at his latest Saturday Summary.

Parts of Europe have already seen their first notes of winter, with snowfalls recorded in Austria, Germany, and Great Britain – read here.

About ten years ago many climatologists, those obsessed with the hypothesis of global warming, were already writing the last will for winter weather in many regions. They were convinced by their computer models and simulations, which foresaw a rapid rise in global warming. But then came the global warming pause, followed by about 8 years of modest global cooling, all accompanied by an unexpected string of nasty winters.

And listening to the latest forecasts for the coming winter, Mother Nature is once again set to defy the warming climate models.

First Joe Bastardi gives us a brief preview of his winter forecast for North America starting at the 11:52 mark of Weatherbell’s latest Saturday Summary.

Weatherbell_2014 Winter

Chart: Weatherbell Analytics Saturday Summary.

The above chart shows Weatherbell’s projected temperature anomaly for the upcoming winter.

Joe says they had already issued the forecast back in April and bases it on weather patterns already observed in the past. He thinks that the models used by climatologists don’t consider all the factors or underestimate some of them. Today he says their models are now also pointing to a colder and snowier winter for large parts of the US with the likelihood how heavy snows near the northern Southeast.

“Frigid conditions”

The US Farmers Almanac also came out predicting a brutal winter for much of the USA. Managing editor Sandi Duncan says Americans need to prepare for a “shivery and shovelry” winter. “We’re calling for some frigid conditions, bitter conditions,” she said.

The American National Weather Service (NWS) currently is pointing to a normal winter for USA, with warmer than normal temperatures out west, cool in the south, and normal in the east.

Central Europe (Germany) winter forecast

The German language www.wetterprognose-wettervorhersage.de site writes that long-term models point to the September, October and November autumn as too dry but with near normal temperatures.

For winter the site writes:

December will be slightly too warm, January and February for the most part normal temperatures with a tendency for higher precipitation. In other words, this variant points to a slightly warmer than normal, but in some regions a very snowy winter.”

Sounds like a potentially good ski season in the Alps!

 

GEOMAR Press Release: Solar Activity’s Profound Impact On Climate…Cripples Melting-Arctic Rossby-Wave Idea

What follows is the press release by GEOMAR on the very recent Muscheler et al paper showing the sun’s profound impact on northern hemispheric climate. Other sites touched on this paper, here and here.

solar_activity_minimum_SOHO-ESA-NASA_ddc78b4160

Now I’ve translated the entire GEOMAR press release from the German. The results of the study are impressive:
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The sun controlled climate during the ice age

Irregularities in solar activity impacted the climate 20,000 years ago.

04 Sept 2014/Kiel. In a model study, climate scientists of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel reconstructed the relationship between solar activity and climate during the last ice age. With their climate-chemical model, they were able to make a considerable contribution to a study by the Swedish Lund University published in the international journal Nature Geoscience.

A known pattern of behavior of the sun is its irregular solar activity. The most well-known activity cycle is the 11-year sunspot cycle where every 11 years there is a switch between sunspot maximum and sunspot minimum. There are also other known fluctuations of other timescales. Sunspots are places on the sun’s surface that appear to be darker because the solar radiation is emitted into the universe with reduced strength. At the same time high energy radiation, foremost in the UV range, leaves the sun. During a sunspot minimum there are fewer sunspots and thus less energy-intensive radiation reaching the earth. When sunspots reach maximum activity, precisely the opposite is true.

More solar radiation, particularly in the UV range, during a sunspot maximum leads to a warming of the stratosphere (between 15 – 50 km) in the tropics and lead to an increased ozone production. Through complicated interactive mechanisms this in turn leads to atmospheric circulation changes which are perceived at the earth’s surface. The mechanisms on how changes in solar activity impact the atmosphere are still the subject of ongoing research. There is especially much speculation on the relationship between large sunspot minima and cold, snowy winters or on whether the current low sunspot activity might be responsible for the pause in global warming.

Scientists of Lund University (Sweden), in cooperation with GEOMAR climate scientists Prof. Dr. Katja Matthes and Dr. Rémi Thiéblemont, have succeeded in reconstructing solar activity back in the last ice age. The study was published in August in the international journal of Nature Geoscience.

Ice cores from Greenland were used to get information on solar activity for that period, a time when Sweden and North Germany were under a thick sheet of ice. The evaluation principle works in a similar manner as with tree-rings: The ice cores contain many layers from which information on temperature and precipitation conditions can be derived. The radioactive, cosmic molecules of beryllium and carbon play an important role here. Namely they are created in the atmosphere when the solar magmatic field around the earth is weak and thus allow lots of cosmic radiation to come through. When the ice core contains lots of radioactive beryllium and carbon, it means there was a weak protective shield, and so indicates weak solar activity.

A combined analysis of ice cores and dripstones allowed the scientists of Lund University to reconstruct solar activity until the end of the last ice age. It shows that the 11-year sunspot cycle also existed at the time, displaying a typical pattern of solar activity. “First of all we have succeeded in producing a high resolution record of solar activity,” says Prof. Matthes. “With our climate model, which transfers the solar signal from the stratosphere to the earth’s surface more accurately than other models, we were able to reconstruct typical atmospheric circulation patterns for a solar minimum, thus enabling us to infer possible temperature and precipitation patterns over Greenland that correspond very closely to the conditions at the end of the last ice age. The agreement is impressive and allows us to suspect that the mechanism for influence on climate by solar activity back then and today function very similarly.”

The results confirm the evidence from other studies showing years with low solar activity are associated with harsh winters over the Northern Hemisphere. One example are the strong winter outbreaks connected with snowfall and storms, as experienced in 2008 and 2010 in North Europe and North America. During these years we found ourselves in a sunspot minima.

“The effect of solar activity on regional climate fluctuations is very revealing. Estimations of future solar activity could lead to more precise climate forecasts over the next deacades,” explains Prof. Matthes.

Study done by:
Adolphi, F., R. Muscheler, A. Svensson, A. Aldahan, G. Possnert, J. Beer, J. Sjolte, S. Björck, K. Matthes, R. Thiéblemont (2014): Persistent link between solar activity and Greenland climate during the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature Geoscience, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2225

Photos:
Shown are sunspots at a time of a solar minima. Photo: SOHO (ESA & NASA)

This ice core was extracted in Greenland as part of the National Ice Sheet Project of the National Science Foundation. It comes from a depth of 1837-1838 Metern and provides a record of the climate of the last thousands of years. Photo: USGS via Wikimedia Commons.

Contact:
Prof. Katja Matthes (GEOMAR, FB1-Ozeanzirkulation und Klimadynamik), kmatthes(at)geomar.de
Jan Steffen (GEOMAR, Kommunikation & Medien), Tel.: 0431 600-2811, jsteffen(at)geomar.de

!! Prime Minister Of India: “Climate Has Not Changed” … Alarmist Scientist Accuses Modi Of Denial !!

The online India Today here reports that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Friday:

Climate has not changed. We have changed. Our habits have changed. Our habits have got spoiled. Due to that, we have destroyed our entire environment,” he said while addressing students and replying to their questions through video conferencing in the first-ever initiative.”

Hat-Tip Tom Nelson at Twitter.

Alarmist climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf of the end-of-world-obsessed Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) responded angrily at Twitter, as the German-government-funded scientist called the statement “very depressing” and accused the Prime Minister of “denial about reality”:

Rahmstorf_India PM

When considering climate on larger timescales, Prime Minister Modi is actually very correct in claiming that climate has not really changed when viewed on a millennial or centennial scale, as the Earth’s temperature is well within the Holocene temperature range. Over the short term climate is always changing, and many scientists attribute much of the change over the last 100 years to natural factors. There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers supporting this. Unfortunately, these papers were mostly ignored by the UN IPCC.

The big climate change that Rahmstorf is talking about is what one finds in the climate model projections. Rahmstorf seems to be confusing the model world with reality and observations.

The models have come under increasingly massive criticism as 97% have over-projected global temperature increase for the last 15 years.

Concerning whether the planet is warming, the online India Today adds that it is an “issue that is being debated at various multilateral fora”.

 

Giant 400 MW BARD I Offshore Windpark Shut-Down Extended Yet Again! Delay Is Now More Than 1 Year!

Germany’s ambitious offshore wind energy project is increasingly threatening to become an expensive green energy folly.

Originally the flagship North Sea wind energy project was scheduled to be delivering clean energy by August 2013. However technical failures beleaguered the project and delayed the opening 7 months: until March 2014. BARD1_Sept Delay

BARD I offshore windpark shut-down extends 9 months. Builders have been unable to resolve technical faults plaguing the project from the start. Text added to photo by NTZ. Original photo: BARD.

But March came and passed, and again the technical problems persisisted and engineers were forced to delay the opening until August 2014, background here.

But that deadline too has now passed and the Austrian Der Standard here reports that the 400 MW BARD I offshore wind park shut-down will be extended at least another month as engineers struggle to get the park online by the end of September.

Engineers remain baffled

According to Der Standard: “Problems with over-voltages in the cable network plagued and ultimately led to a switch-off. The troubleshooting was supposed to be completed in August, however no exact analysis has yet to be produced.”

Hope to repair problems this month

A consortium of companies have been feverishly searching for the root cause of the network problems, but Der Standard writes that the reas0n for the faults is still unclear and that fluctuations in the grid “overloaded a filter” at the Tennet-operated Borwin 1 transformer station. “The repairs should be finished by the end of September.”

Here we are assuming they mean the year 2014. BARD 1 has not issued any press releases or provided comment on the new delays.

Delay costs up to 2 million euros a day!

The Bard 1 North Sea wind park consists of 80 units 5 MW turbines and is located offshore 100 km from the north German coast. The extended shut down will mean a further financial blow to the project, with cost overruns reported to be already well in the double digit millions of euros. Alarmist site klimaretter here writes of the shutdown.

The estimated costs run between one and two million euros per day.”

But in the end, everyone knows who is going to end up footing the bill. Germany already has among the highest electricity costs in the world. Germans will have to prepare to pay even more, and soon!