Record Cold Hits North America, Arctic Sea Ice Stable As Solar Activity Reaches Near 200-Year Low

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Winter has arrived much earlier than normal this year, particularly across North America, where cold records have been shattered.

This Thanksgiving is in fact going down as one of the coldest ever on record across the Northeast. The Washington Post here, for example, reports that Thanksgiving and Black Friday 2018 will be remembered for a record-shattering cold snap across the Northeast United States.”

Also WeatherNation tweeted some impressive record low temperatures being set:

For example, Binghamton, New York smashed its earlier record set 10 years earlier by a whopping 12°F!

The Today Show reported that this year’s traditional Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade was “the coldest on record”.

Records for November 22 were set in Canada across Ontario as well.

Arctic sea ice, snow and ice cover rebound

Arctic sea ice volume has rebounded and is near normal levels. The sea ice trend has remained stable over the past decade and thus defy all the climate alarmist predictions of an Arctic meltdown.

Chart made by Kirye. Data Source: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Also, according to the University of Rutgers, winter northern hemisphere snow extent has been trending upwards over the past 50 years:

Solar activity lowest level in near 200 years

So what could be behind all the surprising record-setting cold and early wintry weather?

A huge volume of scientific literature suggests that low solar activity is playing a major role. The 20th century saw especially strong solar activity, but it has quieted down substantially since the mid 2000s.

The last solar cycle (no. 24) is now all but officially the weakest in close to 200 years, since Solar Cycle 6.

The plot of Solar Cycle 24, red curve, compared to the mean of the previous 23 solar cycles (blue curve) and the similar Solar Cycle 5, which occurred around the year 1800. Chart: Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt.

The above bar chart compares the solar cycles in terms of sunspot number 119 months into the respective cycles. So far the current Solar Cycle 24 has seen an anomaly of -4360 from the mean. Chart: Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt

Most researchers believe that the coming solar cycle 25 will also be weaker than normal, meaning the planet is likely now well into a period of low solar cycle activity, which means a cooling climate ahead – as was the case of the Dalton Minimum some 200 years ago.

Little wonder the Arctic has not cooperated with the doomsday, ice-free Arctic scenarios, and instead has stabilized. A cooling North Atlantic will also further enhance the trend towards an Arctic sea ice rebound. The next 10 years will likely settle the dispute of what mostly drove the 20th century warming: The sun or manmade trace gas CO2.

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Europe’s Energy Uprising …Hundreds Injured, “Warlike Conditions” As Protests Against High Fuel Prices Rage

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Fuel price uprisings spread across Belgium, France… hundreds injured, one dead, major highways blocked, property and windows smashed by “yellow vest” fuel price protesters.

The fact that fuel prices in Europe are sky-high is no accident. They have been willed that way by cash and regulation-hungry governments.

Moreover, the threatened actions aimed at curbing the use of fossil fuels involve yet even higher taxes. Established policymakers and political leaders appear to be disconnected from the citizenry as they let themselves be chauffeured around in taxpayer-financed cars powered by tax-payer-paid fuel or in taxpayer-paid flights burning jet fuel while demanding citizens pay much more.

But recently in some areas of Europe, enough has become enough, and citizens have decided they are not going to take it anymore.

Mayhem

According to reports from France’s AFP, over 400 people were injured, 14 seriously, in “yellow vest” protests over skyrocketing fuel price hikes. One person was killed.

The protests took place last weekend at “locations around the country where protesters had blocked roads to express their anger at a series of hikes in petrol tax,” the AFP reported.

The injured included 28 police and firefighters.

France Interior Minister Christophe Castaner told that 288,000 people took part in Saturday’s protest that led to uprising like conditions at some 2,034 protest locations countrywide.

“Warlike scenes”

Moreover, according to Sputnik News here, “Protests against higher fuel prices have spilled into Belgium across the French border” and described “warlike scenes”.

Sputnik writes roughly “400 protesters hurled stones and Molotov cocktails at police” and went on a rampage, vandalizing property.

The protesters also blocked highways, stopping some 250 trucks on the E16 Mons-Brussels motorway and another 150 at the Belgium-France border crossing on the N6 highway.

Elites gouging citizens

According to Sputnik: “In 2018, gas prices across France increased by between 10-15 percent, with the price of diesel jumping nearly 25 percent. A further increase is set to happen on January 1, 2019.”

In Paris the protests are being mainly held by French students, rail workers, air traffic controllers, and public sector workers who are directing their anger at the controversial reforms of President Emmanuel Macron.

Mainstream media stays quiet

Europe’s mainstream media have been unusually subdued in reporting on the angry fuel uprisings now raging across France and Belgium.

The Belgium-based, German-language ostbelgiendirekt.be here:

The protests were launched by Internet groups, whereby political parties or trade unions remained behind the scenes. “

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2 More New Climate Reconstructions Indicate Rapid COOLING In The Last 100+ Years

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The evidence that “global” warming has not been global in scale continues to accumulate.  Two more new reconstructions from the Western Pacific (He et al., 2018) and subpolar North Atlantic (Orme et al., 2018)  indicate that modern temperatures have continued to decline since the onset of the Little Ice Age. 

These add to the nearly 300 graphs published in the scientific literature since 2017 showing that there is nothing unusual, unprecedented, or remarkable about the temperatures changes in the last 150 years.


“Together with the weakening upwelling condition observed from the same core, we believe that the temperature decreasing trend in the studied region since the end of the LIA [(the recent ~100 years)] is probably caused by changes in current strength instead of coastal upwelling. Less warm water from the south area was transported to the region, probably because of the changes in the weakening KC overturning the increasing global temperature signal in the YS and ECS regions since the end of the LIA (He et al., 2014). In fact, this decreasing SST trend was also observed in many UK’37-SST records among sites located in the mid-latitude western Pacific region since the end of the LIA (Figure 3, Kim et al., 2004; Li et al., 2009; Nakanishi et al., 2012b; Ruan et al., 2017; Wang et al., 2011). In addition, three ~400-year UK’37-SST records from sediment cores collected in the Mirs Bay, northeastern Hong Kong also show cooling trends in this period (Kong et al., 2015).”  (He et al., 2018)


“The diatom-based reconstruction shows warmer reconstructed temperatures than the dinocyst-based reconstruction and the modern measured summer SST (June-August) of 10.9°C. … The overall long-term cooling trend in the diatom-based SST reconstruction for the last 6.1 ka fits with the widely established cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic since the Holocene Thermal Maximum, resulting from decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (e.g. Calvo et al., 2002; Marchal et al., 2002; Andersen et al., 2004a, 2004b; Andersson et al., 2010; Jiang et al., 2015; Sejrup et al., 2016). … The earliest warm period at ~6.1-4 ka BP had average reconstructed SSTs of 12-13.3°C, with the warmest temperatures in the record occurring at ~6.1-5.5 ka BP (c. 13°C). The cooler period ~4-2 ka BP had reconstructed SST that varied around 11.5°C, with minima at 3.2 and 2.4 ka BP interrupted by a short warming at 2.7 ka BP. In the most recent period after 2 ka BP the SSTs again increased peaking at 1.8 ka BP, yet SSTs did not attain values as high as those reconstructed for 6.1-4 ka BP. … In the diatom-based record the mean reconstructed temperature between 4 and 2 ka BP is 11.5°C compared with 12.5 and 12.1°C in the periods before 4 ka BP and after 2 ka BP respectively, showing a reconstructed cooling of 0.6-1°C. In the dinocyst-based record the mean reconstructed temperature between 4 and 2 ka BP is 10.3°C compared with 11.3 and 11.6°C in the periods before 4 ka BP and after 2 ka BP respectively, showing a cooling of 1-1.3°C.”  (Orme et al., 2018)


Below are a few of the many other cooling-since-the-Little-Ice-Age reconstructions that have already been highlighted in 2018.


The average RAN15-MAAT of 18.4°C over the most recent part of the record (<0.8 ka BP) [the last 800 years BP] overlaps with the range of MAATs, ca. 16.2°C to 18.7°C (av. 17.5°C) measured since 1952 at the nearest meteorological station (Yichang, located ca. 100 km away) and is very close to the av. MAAT of 18°C measured directly outside the cave by a temperature logger between 2004 and 2007 (Hu et al., 2008a). This agreement between reconstructed temperatures and instrumental measurements increases our confidence in the potential of the RAN15 proxy. RAN15-MAATs in HS4 vary from 16.5°C to 20.6°C (av. 19°C), during the last 9 ka BP, and broadly follow a long-term trend of declining temperatures in line with declining solar insolation at 30°N in July (Laskar et al., 2004). … Interestingly, the most recent 0.9 ka BP [900 years BP] is distinguished by greater variability with the highest (20.5°C) and lowest (16.5°C) RAN15-MAATs occurring consecutively at 0.6 ka BP [600 years BP] and 0.5 ka BP [500 years BP].”  (Wang et al., 2018)


From c. 1.5 ka BP onwards, we record a prominent subsurface cooling and continued occurrence of fresh and sea‐ice loaded surface waters at the study site.”  (Perner et al., 2018)


“According to the present climate reconstruction, mid Holocene warming started only at 7,700 cal bp, with temperatures higher than now during the mid Holocene periodThis warming was due to an increase in winter temperatures (1–5 °С higher than current), while summer temperatures remained relatively stable, with a July temperature<1 °С higher than now. … During the mid Holocene, two cold periods at 6,900–6,500 and at 5,300–5,000 cal bp were observed. Interestingly, during the cold periods, the temperatures exceeded the current ones by 0.5–1.5 °С. … The transition from the mid Holocene thermal maximum to the following period occurred without considerable climatic changes. The mean annual temperatures remained much higher than the current ones by 0.5–2.5 °С until 2,500 cal bp. Local maximum temperatures were observed at 4,800, 4,300, 3,500 and 2,900–2,700 cal bp. The present climatic reconstruction demonstrates a gradual cooling down to current levels at ca. 2,500 cal bp, and then followed by a new warming phase with up to 1–2 °С increase at approximately 1,500 cal bp.” (Nosova et al., 2018)


The mean annual temperature recorded at the closest meteorological station [La Sarre: 1961–1990] is 0.8 °C, with August temperature averages of 15.0 °C (1961–1990) and 15.4 °C (1981–2010). … During zone Lch1 (8500–5800 cal year BP), the average reconstructed temperature was 16.9 °C, with a decrease from 19 °C (maximum) to 17 °C at the end of the zone. In zone Lch-2 (ca. 5700–3500 cal year BP), temperatures had an average of 16.8 °C, with a decrease from 17.8 °C around 5200 cal year BP to 16.2 °C at 3400 cal year BP. Zone Lch-3 (ca. 3500–1200 cal year BP) started with inferences for high temperatures (19.3–18.5 °C), followed by a decrease to 16.8 °C between ca. 3000 and 2500 cal year BP. An increase (18.3 and 19.6 °C) was inferred for the period between 1800 and 1500 cal year BP. The average chironomid inferred temperature during Zone 3 was 17.9 °C. In the last zone (Lch-4), the temperatures decreased from ca. 17.5 °C at the beginning of the zone to 14.8 °C at the end of the zone. The average during this zone was 16.5 °C. The temperature anomalies show that throughout the whole record, only six of the inferences were colder than the climate normal of 15.4 °C and three were colder than today, with the climate normal of 15 °C (Fig. 4b). The average anomaly from 15 °C (2.10 °C) and from 15.4 °C (1.70 °C) for the whole record showed that the temperature inferences were generally, and significantly, warmer than today.”  (Bajolle et al., 2018)


“[A] general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present.”  (Song et al., 2018)


“Summer temperatures (MJT) at Xingyun Lake in the late glacial were low, increased during the early Holocene, were highest during the middle Holocene, and then decreased during the late Holocene. The range of inferred values [for the Holocene] was 21.0°- 26.5°C. The pollen inferred temperature derived from surface samples (21.2°C), is close to the modern instrumental July temperature in Kunming (22°C), supporting the reliability of reconstructions from down-core pollen assemblages.” (Wu et al., 2018)


Image Source: Zhang and Feng, 2018

Image Source: Wang et al., 2018
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New Swiss Ice Core Study Shows MAN NOT RESPONSIBLE For End Of Little Ice Age!

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Ice core study: Industrialization not the cause of the end of the Little Ice Age

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

A few days ago here at our blog we presented a study criticizing climate models and false soot data:

These data clearly show that industrial soot could hardly have been responsible for the melting of the Alpine glaciers at the time mainly between 1850 and 1875. ‘By 1875, about 80 percent of the glacier retreat had already been completed,’ said Sigl. Indeed it was not until 1875 that the amount of industrial soot in Central Europe exceeded the amount naturally present in the atmosphere.”

The study was even presented in October, 2018, in the Swiss SRF news. Click on the 13:22 mark of the broadcast. The report lasts about 3 minutes. One day later also a separate text accompanied the video release at the SRF website:

160 years ago – Industrialization not the cause of the end of the Little Ice Age

Is man, and his industrialization, responsible for the so-called Little Ice Age coming to an end in the middle of the 19th century? So far historians and climatologists have assumed that the melting of the Alpine glaciers began with industrialization after 1860 — because of the increased output of soot. This assumption is not correct – that’s what researchers from the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), link opens a new window. On the basis of evidence that is found deep in the ice: The analysis of the amount of soot that is trapped in the glacier ice refutes this previous assumption.”

Read more (German) at SRF. You can read the English language article at swissinfo.ch.

What was the driving force of the early glacier melt? Sigl and colleagues surmise that volcanoes and a weak sun in the Maunder Minimum caused the glaciers to grow excessively and, after few snowfalls and (natural) warming caused by the AMO, then to recede.

Here is the abstract of the study by Sigl et al. 2018:

19th century glacier retreat in the Alps preceded the emergence of industrial black carbon deposition on high-alpine glaciers
Light absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere and cryosphere play an important role in the climate system. Their presence in ambient air and snow changes the radiative properties of these systems, thus contributing to increased atmospheric warming and snowmelt. High spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations and a shortage of long-term observations contribute to large uncertainties in properly assigning the climate effects of aerosols through time. Starting around AD1860, many glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat from their maximum mid-19th century terminus positions, thereby visualizing the end of the Little Ice Age in Europe. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial black carbon to snow has been suggested as the main driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps. The basis for this hypothesis was model simulations using elemental carbon concentrations at low temporal resolution from two ice cores in the Alps. Here we present sub-annually resolved concentration records of refractory black carbon (rBC; using soot photometry) as well as distinctive tracers for mineral dust, biomass burning and industrial pollution from the Colle Gnifetti ice core in the Alps from AD1741 to 2015. These records allow precise assessment of a potential relation between the timing of observed acceleration of glacier melt in the mid-19th century with an increase of rBC deposition on the glacier caused by the industrialization of Western Europe. Our study reveals that in AD1875, the time when rBC ice-core concentrations started to significantly increase, the majority of Alpine glaciers had already experienced more than 80% of their total 19th century length reduction, casting doubt on a leading role for soot in terminating of the Little Ice Age. Attribution of glacial retreat requires expansion of the spatial network and sampling density of high alpine ice cores to balance potential biasing effects arising from transport, deposition, and snow conservation in individual ice-core records.”

Already on September 17, 2018, in the New York Times there was an article about a Swiss ice core study on the Little Ice Age:

Europe’s Triumphs and Troubles Are Written in Swiss Ice
Pollen frozen in ice in the Alps traces Europe’s calamities, since the time Macbeth ruled Scotland. As plague swept through Europe in the mid-1300s, wiping out more than a third of the region’s population, a glacier in the Alps was recording the upheaval of medieval society. While tens of millions of people were dying, pollen from the plants, trees and crops growing in Western Europe were being swept up by the winds and carried toward the Alps. They became trapped in snowflakes and fell onto the region’s highest mountain, the Monte Rosa massif. Over time, the snow flattened into ever-growing layers of ice, storing a blow-by-blow record of regional environmental change. Centuries later, the crop pollens trapped in the ice reveal the collapse of agriculture associated with the pandemic, as bad weather led to poor harvests and fields lay fallow because there was no one left to work them.”

The study related here: Brugger et al. 2018 (A quantitative comparison of microfossil extraction methods from ice cores).

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Wow! Profound If True: Russian Expert Believes Supply Of Hydrocarbon Fossil Fuels Virtually “Infinite”

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Recently I presented here an article on filmmaker Marijn Poels’s new documentary that featured former Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson, who stated that the theories of climate science are “very confused” and that “the models are wrong”.

But perhaps the most fascinating point the film brings up was presented at the very end: A Russian scientist believes and supports how the Earth’s supply of fossil fuels is in fact virtually endless.

The part of interest begins at 1:18:50.

The notion of fossil fuels being scarce, and thus worthy of high prices, was first initiated by the business savvy John D. Rockefeller way back in 1892, where he paid a group of scientists to push hydrocarbon fuel as a limited resource, and so making it more expensive.

Infinite supply!
Fossil fuels come from below earth’s crust!

However, the Dutch filmmaker Poels meets with Russian scientist Prof. Dr. Vladimir Kutcherov who presents (1:21:00) his “controversial point of view”, that hydrocarbons are generated at the depths of the earth, 100 to 200 km below the surface, “and then migrate into the earth’s crust and form oil and gas deposits”, and thus virtually infinite – should the theory be true.

They are not the remnants of of old fossilized plant life as we are often told.

Kutcherov explains that carbon and hydrogen elements are under high pressure and temperature just beneath the earth’s crust and form into hydro-carbons that seep to the surface of the earth. Image cropped from: The Uncertainty Has Settled (1:22:13).

Kutcherov says his hypothesis is backed by high pressure experiments, and he believes “there are no doubts that hydrocarbons and natural gas particles could be generated at the sphere of our planet at depths of 100 to 200 kilometers.”

Old oil fields come back

And when asked by Poels if that means the supply is inifinite, Kutcherov answers: “Yes, indeed.”

And when asked about wells and oil fields running out, Kutcherov comments:

People take oil very quickly, and if we will come back to this oil field in 50 – 60 years, we could see that new oil came to this oil field.”

The Russian professor adds that this has all been confirmed by samples taken from oil fields in Russia: “After certain time, new oil came in old oil fields and this oil could be only from the depth.”

Prof. Kutcherov and others have published a set of papers in PNAS, Nature Geoscience, Review of Geophysics, where “the possibility of abiogenic synthesis of complex hydrocarbon systems was convincingly demonstrated”.

Kept silent by media

He then says that calculation estimate that man only uses 15% of this and that “we don’t need to find new oil fields or gas fields”. All that is needed is to improve the efficiency with how we use the energy.

According to Prof. Kutcherov, this is all being kept silent by the media.

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Winds Of Change? 10 New Papers Document The Evident Harm Wind Turbines Afflict On Humanity

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In the scientific literature, wind energy’s effects on human populations has increasingly garnered an ignominious reputation in recent years.  For example, wind energy is claimed to (1) lead to “genocide” and “green grabbing”, (2) harm human health and well-being, and (3) lower home property values.

Image Source: Tonin, 2017

Wind energy “green-grabbing” leading to “genocide”, division, and “violent conflict”

The ‘solution’ is now the ‘problem:’ wind energy, colonisation and the ‘genocide-ecocide nexus’ … The green economy emerges in the shadow of conventional fossil fuel production, presenting itself as a ‘solution’ and pathway to slow the effects of ecological, climate and economic crisis. Said differently, renewable energy in particular, and the green economy in general, emerge as the ‘lesser evil’ of industrial development. Discussing the principle of ‘lesser evil’, Eyal Weizman writes, ‘less brutal measures are also those that may be more easily naturalised, accepted and tolerated – and hence more frequently used, with the result that a greater evil may be reached cumulatively’. The green economy is the lesser industrial evil, utilising a technique of war to morally buffer and continue the proliferation of industrial waste in the name of climate change mitigation, which according to this research results in greater cumulative social and environmental alterations and, even, the systemic and increasing destruction of alternative value systems and ways of life valuing their relationships with their ecosystems. … State-sanctioned land grabbing by corporations in the name of sustainable development is accumulation by dispossession by environmental ethic – green grabbing [Fairhead et al., 2012] – which walks a fine line with genocide. ‘The Rana’, exclaims: ‘We hold responsible all of the political parties of Mexico, the government in its different levels for the attempt to annihilate us, the attempt to grab our land and to wipe us off the map.’”  (Dunlap, 2018b)
“Sustainable development and climate change mitigation policies, Dunlap and Fairhead argue, have instigated and renewed old conflicts over land and natural resources, deploying military techniques of counterinsurgency to achieve land control. Wind energy development, a popular tool of climate change mitigation policies, has consequently generated conflict in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (Istmo) region in Oaxaca, Mexico. Research is based on participant observation and 20 recorded interviews investigating the Fuerza y Energía Bíi Hioxo Wind Farm on the outskirts of Juchitán de Zaragoza. This paper details the repressive techniques employed by state, private and informal authorities against popular opposition to the construction of the Bíi Hioxo wind park on communal land. Providing background on Juchitán, social property and counterinsurgency in Southern Mexico, this paper analyzes the development of the Bíi Hioxo wind park. It further explores the emergence of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ counterinsurgency techniques used to pacify resistance against the wind park, enabling its completion next to the Lagoon Superior in October 2014. Discussing the ‘greening of counterinsurgency’, this contribution concludes that the Bíi Hioxo wind park has spawned social divisions and violent conflict, and intervened in the sensitive cultural fabric of Istmeño life.”  (Dunlap, 2018a)

Wind turbine noise annoyance “statistically associated” with a host of health problems

• Sleep disorders twofold higher frequencies near wind turbines
“We investigated whether long-term exposure to low-frequency noise generated by wind power facilities is a risk factor for sleep disorders. We performed an epidemiological study of the living environment and health effects of such noise by surveying 9,000 residents (≥20 years of age) living in areas with operational wind power facilities. … Moreover, the reported prevalence of sleep disorders was significantly higher (by approximately twofold) among residents living at a distance of ≤1,500 m from the nearest wind turbine than among residents living at a distance of ≥2,000 m, suggesting a dose-response relationship. The attitudes of residents towards wind power facilities strongly affected their responses regarding sleep disorder prevalence. It is highly likely that audible noise generated by wind power facilities is a risk factor for sleep disorders. Obtaining a satisfactory consensus from local residents before installing wind power facilities is important as for more amenable their attitudes towards such facilities.”  (Ishitake, 2018)
• Blinking lights, shadow flicker, and visual annoyance…migraines, dizziness, sleep disturbances…
“An aggregate annoyance construct has been developed to account for annoyance that ranges from not at all annoyed to extremely annoyed, toward multiple wind turbine features. … Household complaints about wind turbine noise had the highest average aggregate annoyance (8.02), compared to an average of 1.39 among those who did not complain. … It should also be underscored that in response to concerns raised during the external peer review of this paper, the association between the non-noise annoyance variables and self-reported and measured health outcomes was evaluated. With the exception of vibration annoyance, which could not be evaluated due to the small sample size, blinking lights, shadow flicker, and visual annoyance were found to be statistically associated with several measures of health, including, but not limited to, migraines, dizziness, tinnitus, chronic pain, sleep disturbance, perceived stress, quality of life measures, lodging a WTN-related complaint, and measured diastolic blood pressure.”  (Michaud et al., 2018)
• Residential proximity to wind turbines correlated with annoyance and health-related quality of life
“The findings indicate that residential proximity to wind turbines is correlated with annoyance and health-related quality of life measures. These associations differ in some respects from associations with noise measurements. Results can be used to support discussions between communities and wind-turbine developers regarding potential health effects of wind turbines.”  (Barry et al., 2018)
• Health, well-being, stress associated with wind turbine annoyance
“The aim of this study was to evaluate the perception and annoyance of noise from wind turbines in populated areas of Poland. … It was estimated that at the distance of 1000 m the wind turbine noise might be perceived as highly annoying outdoors by 43% and 2% of people with negative and positive attitude towards wind turbines, respectively. There was no significant association between noise level (or distance) and various health and well-being aspects. However, all variables measuring health and well-being aspects, including stress symptoms, were positively associated with annoyance related to wind turbine noise.”  (Pawlaczyk-Łuszczyńska et al., 2018)
• Stress, anxiety, vertigo, dizziness, nausea, blurred vision, fatigue…
“In 2015, the Australian Senate Select Committee on Wind Turbines concluded there was credible evidence from a number of people who reside in proximity to wind turbines who have complained of a range of adverse health impacts. These include tinnitus, raised blood pressure, heart palpitations, tachycardia, stress, anxiety, vertigo, dizziness, nausea, blurred vision, fatigue, cognitive dysfunction, headaches, ear pressure, exacerbated migraine disorders, motion sensitivity, inner ear damage and sleep deprivation.  A historical review shows that whilst initially the audible sounds of wind turbines disturbed people in their sleep, more complex prognoses such as Vibroacoustic Disease and Wind Turbine Syndrome were proposed to explain the reported health symptoms. These diseases were hypothesised to be linked to the emission of infrasound from wind turbines, particularly tonal infrasound at the blade pass frequency of the turbine blades and associated harmonics.”
“Salt [2014] disagrees with the proposition that “what you can’t hear can’t affect you”. In his proposal, it is the outer hair cells (OHC) in the cochlear that are stimulated by infrasound as opposed to the inner hair cells (IHC) which are responsible for audible hearing. Figure 12 is a cross section through the cochlear in the inner ear and the location of the Organ of Corti containing the OHC and the IHC. Figure 13 is a more detailed view of the Organ of Corti.  According to Salt, the ear responds to infrasound through the OHC and whilst the sensation is not “heard”, there is nevertheless a stimulation of the cochlea. The question is whether the stimulation by infrasound remains confined to the ear and has no other influence on the person or whether there are on-flowing effects which would explain the symptoms allegedly attributable to wind turbine infrasound.”
“Pierpont coined the term “Wind Turbine Syndrome” to explain the symptoms of persons exposed to infrasound from wind turbines including “a feeling of internal pulsation, quivering or jitteriness, and it is accompanied by nervousness, anxiety, fear, a compulsion to flee or check the environment for safety, nausea, chest tightness, and tachycardia”. According to Van den Berg [56], these symptoms are well known when persons are put under stress and thus might not be specific to the impact of wind turbines. People with a generalised anxiety disorder also have symptoms which include trembling, restlessness or a feeling of being “edgy”, excessive worry and tension, an unrealistic view of problems, nausea and muscle tension and these conditions might become worse during periods of stress.”  (Tonin, 2017)
• Infrasound, vibrations disturb the comfort of nearby residents
Infrasound, low frequency noise and soil vibrations produced by large wind turbines might disturb the comfort of nearby structures and residents. In addition repowering close to urban areas produces some fears to the nearby residents that the level of disturbance may increase. Due to wind loading, the foundation of a wind turbine interacts with the soil and creates micro-seismic surface waves that propagate for long distances and they are able to influence adversely sensitive measurements conducted by laboratories located far from the excitation point.”  (Gortsas et al., 2017)
• Significant negative external effects on residential well-being
We show that the construction of wind turbines close to households exerts significant negative external effects on residential well-being … In fact, beyond unpleasant noise emissions (Bakker et al., 2012; McCunney et al., 2014) and impacts on wildlife (Pearce-Higgins et al., 2012; Schuster et al., 2015), most importantly, wind turbines have been found to have negative impacts on landscape aesthetics (Devine-Wright, 2005; Jobert et al., 2007; Wolsink, 2007). … We show that the construction of a wind turbine within a radius of 4,000 metres has a significant negative and sizeable effect on life satisfaction. For larger radii, no negative externalities can be detected. “  (Krekel and Zerrahn, 2017)

Wind turbine presence reduces property values for distances of up to 3 km

We present the results of a large-scale analysis on how on-shore and off-shore wind turbines affect the property prices of nearby single family residential and vacation homes in Denmark. We find that on-shore wind turbines negatively affect the price of surrounding properties to a distance of three kilometers. The negative impact increases with the number of wind turbines at a declining marginal rate but declines with distance. In the case of off-shore wind turbine farms, we do not find a significant effect of having an off-shore wind farm in view from a property itself or from the nearest beach, likely because the closest off-shore turbine is 9 km from the closest traded home. … The results suggest that ceteris paribus, wind turbine farms should be built quite far away from residential areas with turbines gathered in larger wind farms rather than installed as single turbines.”  (Jensen et al., 2018)
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Extreme Precipitation Events In China, Australia Show No Increase At All Over Past Decades!

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According to a recent paper by Choujun Zhan et al, extreme precipitation events have declined over 90% of China.

Hat-tip: reader Mary Brown
Image right: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

According to the paper’s abstract, a newly developed dataset containing daily precipitation in China at 0.5° intervals of longitude and latitude over the period 1961 to 2011 was statistically analyzed.

The authors found “the probability of rainy days has decreased over time for over 90% the surface area of China, and that the extreme precipitation and annual precipitation have decreased for most of the area in China.”

The results contradict the often made alarmist claim of more frequent and extreme weather events due to global warming.

Australia: “no trend in one day precipitation extremes”

In a recent paper titled “Variability and long-term change in Australian temperature and precipitation extremes“, the authors found that although in Australia minimum temperatures have increased, but maximum temperatures not so much, there was no trend in one day precipitation extremes.

The authors summarized in the paper’s abstract:

Daily precipitation extremes rarely exhibit long-term change over the century but are strongly modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relative importance of long-term change and climate variability therefore depends on the variable or index.

We conclude that in assessing the likelihood of climate hazards, one needs to consider the modulation of climate extremes due to both long-term change and climate variability. Our findings imply that when planning for adaptation, different emphasis needs to be given to changing temperature and precipitation extremes.”

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Warming Put On Ice…”Wicked Cold” Set To Sweep Europe…Arctic Ice Volume Climbs To Normal Levels

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Recently we’ve been hearing about how cold it’s been over much of North America, for example how Houston saw its earliest snowfall on record!

Well, it appears that the early wintry conditions are getting set to take even stronger hold over the Northern Hemisphere.

Yesterday at Weatherbell’s Daily Update, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi showed how some 90% of North America has been well below normal temperature-wise so far this month:

Source: Weatherbell Daily Update.

In Europe, the continent has experienced a very warm summer and fall so far, but that is about to change rather dramatically — should the latest computer model generated weather forecasts pan out, and which they are expected to do.

Snow is forecast to cover much of the US and all of Canada by early next month:

Source: Weatherbell Daily Update.

Russian beast from the east

Joe says at the Daily Summary that Europe should expect “brutal cold” at the end of the current month. At the end of the video he says:

“Boy, we’ve got some interesting things going on in Europe. […] Wicked cold coming into Europe.”

Source: Weatherbell Daily Update.

Also Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye at Twitter sent me chart showing Arctic sea ice volume is back up to normal after having been a bit below normal over the past couple of months.


Source: Kirye.

Once again expect another rollout of the scientifically bogus explanation of a Arctic-warming-induced perturbed jet stream causing all the cold. Just keep in mind this is barely a hypothesis that has no data to back it up and that it mostly relies on phony models created by climate activists.

Although the globe may have warmed about half a degree, much of the Northern Hemisphere land mass will continue to see cold snows winters like it did 50 years ago. The earlier idiotic alarmist predictions are proving to be merely fantasy visions of hysterical minds.

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Renowned Physicist Freeman Dyson: “Theories Of Climate Are Very Confused”…”Models Are Wrong”!

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[The most notable part of the documentary is the interview with Freeman Dyson, from 1:09:00 – 1:14:00]

In his new documentary “The Uncertainty has Settled“, Dutch filmmaker Marijn Poels focuses on climate science and politics and found that the issue is in fact as controversial and as UNSETTLED as any issue could possibly get.

The science climate change is far from settled and is in fact unsettled.

The production of the film took Poels to a variety of locations from Manhattan to the Austrian Alps.

The first part of the film depicts the plight of farmers in former East Germany (Saxony Anhalt), who are struggling to practice their livelihoods under the heavy burden of German agricultural regulation and market distortion that result from bureaucrats having decided that 0.01% of our atmosphere (man-emitted CO2) is a monumental problem.

That’s the narrative the media and leading politicians keep ramming. But a number of skeptics doubt it, and so Poels investigates if this doubt is just right wind politics or if there is something really behind it.

In the end he finds that the science is fully in dispute.

Belief we can stop climate change “enormously egocentric”

At the 38:00 Poels says that the [alarmist] Potsdam Institute refused to grant him an interview and so he set out for Hamburg to meet with climate scientist Hans von Storch, who is in the warmist camp.

Von Storch confirms that climate change is real, man-made and is a problem that needs to be dealt with seriously. But he adds that the claim that we can “rescue” the climate is “nonsense” and characterizes the claim the individual can play a role on controlling climate as “enormously egocentric”. Later in the film (1:04:45) von Storch says he doesn’t see climate change as a danger, but as “a challenge” that he is not afraid of.

CO2 as a climate driver “complete, delusional nonsense”

Next astrophysicist Piers Corbyn tells Poels that the amount of man-made Co2 in the atmosphere is like a “tiny blob of birdshit” and calls the claim that this is causing the climate to change “complete, delusional nonsense”. Corbyn also believes the globe will see continued cooling until about 2035. He calls the datasets showing warming “frauds”.

Freeman Dyson:
Climate models “very dangerous game”…”they’re wrong”

Next Poels makes his way to Princeton where he meets with “living legend” Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson, one of the leading skeptic voices on man-made climate change.

Dyson has harsh, critical words for climate science and the models they rely on (1:10:30). He calls the science of climate modeling a “very dangerous game”, adding:

When you work with a computer model for years and years and years – always improving the model – in the end you end up believing it. […] It’s very difficult to remain objective.”

Models “wrong”…”disagree with observations”

On why we should not trust the models, Dyson says flat out: “Because they’re wrong. It’s very simple. They’re wrong.” Dyson says they “disagree with observations”. He then commented on modeling scientists:

Those people don’t look at observations. They are in a world of their own.”

“Scaring the public”

The 93-year old Princeton professor also notes that although the models are “very good tools for understanding climate”, they are a “very bad tool for predicting climate” and that these scientists “live by scaring the public”.

Climate theories are “very confused”

Dyson continues:

Unfortunately the thing has become so political it’s no longer science when you have strong political dogmas, as you say, on both sides.”

Overall Dyson advises that we need to believe the observations and pointed out that “the theories of climate are very confused.”

Herd, tribal mentality

He also told Poels a large sociological part of the problem is that climate scientists have in large part gotten caught in herd and tribal mentality.

It’s still more important to belong to the tribe than to it is to speak the truth.”

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Climate Alarmism Dies In 2018 As Modern Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise Has No Net Impact On World’s Coasts

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The year 2018 could mark the beginning of the end of climate change alarmist reporting.  Projections of catastrophic melting of the ice sheets and sea level rise swallowing up the Earth’s coasts are increasingly undermined by observations. 

Extensive glacier and ice sheet melt resulting in an accelerated sea level rise threatening the world’s population centers living along the coasts is indeed the most legitimate threat posed by a global-scale warming trend.

Alarming sea level rise predictions abound.   Several meters of sea level rise due to catastrophic melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been predicted based on anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios.

For example, claims that we shall experience 260 centimeters (2.6 meters) of global sea level rise by 2100 unless we dramatically curtail our fossil fuel consumption have been published by authors like Dr. Michael Mann and Dr. Richard Alley (Garner et al. 2017).  These same authors even suggest seas will rise by 17.5 meters in the next 180 years (Mörner et al., 2018).

Image Source: Mörner et al., 2018

Despite the hackneyed practice of reporting “staggering” ice sheet melt for both Greenland and Antarctica in recent decades, the two polar ice sheets combined to add just 1.5 centimeters to sea level rise between 1958 and 2014 (graph from Frederikse et al., 2018) as global sea levels only rose by “1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 over 1958–2014 (1σ)” or “1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 for the sum of contributors”.

That’s about 7.8 centimeters (3.1 inches) of global sea level change in 56 years.

Even more significantly, satellite observations all across the globe show that the coasts of islands and sandy beaches and continents have not only not been shrinking for the last several decades, they’ve been stable to growing on net.  Along the world’s coasts, there is today more land area above sea level than there was in the mid-1980s (Donchyts et al., 2016), leaving scientists “surprised”.

We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world,” said Dr Baart.  “We’re were able to create more land than sea level rise was taking.”  (BBC press release for Donchyts et al., 2016)

Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner – a world-renown sea level expert who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University – and 3 other co-authors have concluded that sea level rise projections of 2.6 m by 2100 and 17.5 m by 2300 are “deeply flawed” and “not rooted in facts” (Mörner et al., 2018).

What follows is a very abbreviated summary of the dozens of alarmism-quelling papers published in 2018 pertaining to ice sheet melt, sea level rise, and coastal expansion.


Mörner et al., 2018

Estimating Future Sea Level Changes, Assessing Coastal
Hazards, Avoiding Misguiding Exaggerations, and
Recommending Present Coastal Management

“Tide-gauges offer records of the relative changes in sea level. Out of a total of about 2300 stations (PSMSL), “a global set of ~300 tide gauges that serves as the backbone of the global in situ sea level network” in the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). There is no objective, straightforward solution for estimating a global mean value. The University of Colorado chose 184 global tide-gauge records. Their rate of distribution has a marked peak in the zone from ±0.0 to +2.0 mm/yr with a mean value at +1.14 mm/yr. Because the majority of stations used include a component of regional subsidence and local sediment compaction, the true mean sea level value should be <+1.14 mm/yr. … Satellite altimetry is a new and important tool, which reconstructs the entire ocean surface changes. But nowhere do the measurements agree with coastal observations. Satellite altimetry exceeds tide-gauge records by about 300%. There have even been accusations of data manipulation [Mörner, 2018].”
Garner et al. (2017) propose SLR of up to 2.6 m by 2100, 10.5 m by 2200, and 17.5 m by 2300 (Fig. 1). These SLRs are far greater than those that occurred during catastrophic melting of immense ice sheets at the end of the Pleistocene, so the question arises, where will all the water come from to produce these very large SLRs? Melting of small, temperate, alpine glaciers wouldn’t produce anywhere near the SLRs projected by Garner et al., so the only possible sources of water are the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The projections of Garner et al. of SLR of 7–8 m per century would require about seven times the end of the Pleistocene SLR when immense ice sheets were collapsing under warming of up to 20 °F in less than a century. To get these huge SLRs would require melting of an immense amount of ice from the Antarctic ice sheet. The average winter temperature in Antarctica is about –55 °F and temperatures have reached as low as 135 °F, so any significant melting of the Antarctic ice sheet would require 55° + 32° = 87 °F of warming just to get to the freezing point plus another 10 degrees or so to melt much ice. So Antarctica would have to warm up by 90–100 °F to melt enough ice to substantially raise sea level.”
“Hazard prediction is important, but the essence of science is the testing of predictions by comparison with observational facts. Without that validation, predictions are really just idle speculations. The future sea level values given by Garner et al. [2017] are deeply flawed and therefore misleading for coastal planning. They must be rejected as nonsense. Sea level research has its own well established means of recording past and present sea level changes and from those data to estimate likely sea level changes in the future. There are also physical frames to consider, some of which are absolute and must not be violated. … [T]he values given by Garner et al. [2017] violate not only physical laws but also accepted scientific knowledge of glaciology. Therefore, their values must not be considered in coastal planning. We also question the reviewing process.”
“Is Greenland warming and the ice sheet melting away? Chylek et al. [2004] analyzed temperature histories of coastal stations in southern and central Greenland having almost uninterrupted temperature records between 1950 and 2000 and found that coastal Greenland’s peak temperatures occurred between 1930 and 1940, after which subsequent decrease in temperature was so substantial and sustained that current coastal temperatures are about 1°C below their 1940 values.” At the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 °C per decade since the beginning of measurements in 1987. Two weather stations, Godthab Nuu and Angmagssalik, on opposite coasts of Greenland, have the longest records, dating back more than a century. Both show similar annual temperature patterns–strong warming in the 1920 and 1930s followed by cooling from 1950 to 1980 and warming from 1980 to 2005. The significance of these recent temperature records is that they show that temperatures in the past several decades have not exceeded those of the 1930s and Greenland temperatures have fluctuated normally in step with global temperatures changes [Easterbrook, 2016].”
Satellite and surface temperature records and sea surface temperatures show that both the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are cooling, not warming. Satellite and surface temperature measurements show that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is cooling, not warming, and glacial ice is increasing, not melting. Satellite and surface temperature measurements of the southern polar area show no warming over the past 37 years. Growth of the Antarctic ice sheets means sea level rise is not being caused by melting of polar ice and, in fact, is slightly lowering the rate of rise. Satellite Antarctic temperature records show 0.02 °C/decade cooling since 1979. The Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been getting sharply colder since 2006. Antarctic sea ice is increasing, reaching all-time highs. Surface temperatures at 13 stations show the Antarctic Peninsula has been sharply cooling since 2000. This indicates that the hypothetical “enhanced Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution” of Garner et al. [2017] is a serious mistake (Fig. 1) not anchored in facts.”

2. Ice melt from Greenland, Antarctica added just 1.5 cm to sea levels since 1958 

“For the first time, it is shown that for most basins the reconstructed sea level trend and acceleration can be explained by the sum of contributors, as well as a large part of the decadal variability. The global-mean sea level reconstruction shows a trend of 1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 over 1958–2014 (1σ), compared to 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr−1for the sum of contributors.” (Frederikse et al.,2018)

3. Ice mass gains in the rapidly-cooling Antarctic Peninsula since 2009  

Two small glaciers on James Ross Island, the north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, experienced surface mass gain between 2009 and 2015 as revealed by field measurements. A positive cumulative surface mass balance of 0.57 ± 0.67 and 0.11 ± 0.37 m w.e. was observed during the 2009–2015 period on Whisky Glacier and Davies Dome, respectively. …  Ambrožová and Láska (2016) reported a significant decrease (0.03–0.15°C a−1 [-0.3 to -1.5°C per decade]) in the temperature along the AP [Antarctic Peninsula] over the 2005–15 period with the most prominent cooling at the Bibby Hill station on JRI [James Ross Island]. … The cumulative mass gain of the glaciers around the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula] indicates a regional change from a predominantly negative surface mass balance in the first decade of the 21st century to a positive balance over the 2009–15 period. The change in the glacier mass balance follows a significant decrease in the warming rates reported from the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula] since the end of the 20th century. The mass gain is also consistent with the regional trend of climate cooling on the eastern side of the AP [Antarctic Peninsula].”   (Engel et al., 2018)

4. Collapse of Larsen C glaciers would add 0.25 to 0.42 of a cm to sea levels

“Here we apply numerical ice-sheet models of varying complexity to show that the centennial sea-level commitment of Larsen C embayment glaciers following immediate shelf collapse is low ( < 2.5 mm to 2100,  < 4.2 mm to 2300) [0.25 to 0.42 of a cm added to sea levels by 2100/2300 with Larsen C collapse]. Despite its large size, Larsen C does not provide strong buttressing forces to upstream basins and its collapse does not result in large additional discharge from its tributary glaciers in any of our model scenarios. In contrast, the response of inland glaciers to a collapse of the George VI Ice Shelf may add up to 8mm to global sea levels by 2100 and 22mm by 2300 [0.8 cm to 2.2 cm] due in part to the mechanism of marine ice sheet instability. Our results demonstrate the varying and relative importance to sea level of the large Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves considered to present a risk of collapse.” (Schannwell et al., 2018)

5. East Antarctica is gaining mass – it takes “millions of years” for “even partial retreat” 

The East Antarctic ice sheet may be gaining mass in the current, warming climate. The palaeoclimate record shows, however, that it has retreated during previous episodes of prolonged warmth. … In terms of immediate sea-level rise, it is reassuring that it seems to require prolonged periods of lasting hundreds of thousands to millions of years to induce even partial retreat.” (Nature Geoscience, 2018)

6. No glacier-melt trend for Antarctica’s largest sea level rise contributor in 70 years

Pine Island Glacier is the largest current Antarctic contributor to sea level rise. Its ice loss has substantially increased over the last 25 years through thinning, acceleration and grounding line retreat. However, the calving line positions of the stabilizing ice shelf did not show any trend within the observational record (last 70 years) until calving in 2015 led to unprecedented retreat and changed alignment of the calving front. … Despite the thinning and flow acceleration of PIG [Pine Island Glacier], and sustained, rapid thinning of the ice shelf over at least the past 25 years the position of the ice front had not shown any clear trend over 68 years of observations prior to 2015 (Bindschadler, 2002;MacGregor et al., 2012;Rignot, 2002).”  (Arndt et al., 2018)

7. East Antarctica gaining mass…projections due to ice sheet melt “overestimated”

East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) mass balance is largely driven by snowfall. Recently, increased snowfall in Queen Maud Land led to years of EAIS mass gain. It is difficult to determine whether these years of enhanced snowfall are anomalous or part of a longer-term trend, reducing our ability to assess the mitigating impact of snowfall on sea-level rise. We determine that the recent snowfall increases in western Queen Maud Land (QML) are part of a long-term trend (+5.2±3.7% decade-1) and are unprecedented over the past two millennia. Warming between 1998 and 2016 is significant and rapid (+1.1±0.7 °C decade-1). Using these observations, we determine that the current accumulation and temperature increases in QML from an ensemble of global climate simulations are too low, which suggests that projections of the QML [Queen Maud Land] contribution to sea-level rise are potentially overestimated with a reduced mitigating impact of enhanced snowfall in a warming world.”  (Medley et al., 2018)

8. Globally, 73.1% of island coasts are stable, 15.5% are growing, and 11.4% are shrinking 

“This review first confirms that over the past decades to century, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization by sea-level rise. The global sample considered in this paper, which includes 30 atolls and 709 islands, reveals that atolls did not lose land area, and that 73.1% of islands were stable in land area, including most settled islands, while 15.5% of islands increased and 11.4% decreased in size. Atoll and island areal stability can therefore be considered as a global trend. Importantly, islands located in ocean regions affected by rapid sea-level rise showed neither contraction nor marked shoreline retreat, which indicates that they may not be affected yet by the presumably negative, that is, erosive, impact of sea-level rise. .. These results show that atoll and island areal stability is a global trend, whatever the rate of sea-level rise. Tuvaluan atolls affected by rapid sea-level rise (5.1 mm/yr; Becker et al., 2012) did not exhibit a distinct behavior compared to atolls located in areas showing lower sea-level rise rates, for example, the Federated States of Micronesia or Tuamotu atolls.”  (Duvat et al., 2018)

9. Since 1984, 48% of the globe’s shorelines have been stable, 28% are growing, and 24% are shrinking

“The application of an automated shoreline detection method to the sandy shorelines thus identified resulted in a global dataset of shoreline change rates for the 33 year period 1984–2016Analysis of the satellite derived shoreline data indicates that 24% of the world’s sandy beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, while 28% are accreting and 48% are stable. …. Erosion rates exceed 5 m/yr along 4% of the sandy shoreline and are greater than 10 m/yr for 2% of the global sandy shoreline. On the other hand, about 8% of the world’s sandy beaches experience significant accretion (>3 m/yr), while 6% (3%) are accreting more than 5 m/yr (10 m/yr). … Taking a continental perspective, Australia and Africa are the only continents for which net erosion (−0.20 m/yr and −0.07 m/yr respectively) is found, with all other continents showing net accretion.”  (Luijendijk et al., 2018)

10. “Despite sea-level rise” there has been a “land area increase in eight of nine atolls” since 1971

“We specifically examine spatial differences in island behaviour, of all 101 islands in Tuvalu, over the past four decades (1971–2014), a period in which local sea level has risen at twice the global average (Supplementary Note 2). Surprisingly, we show that all islands have changed and that the dominant mode of change has been island expansion, which has increased the land area of the nation. … Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average [<2 mm/yr-1] (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls.”  (Kench et al., 2018)

11. Bangladesh coastal land area has expanded by 7.9 kmper year during 1985-2015

“This paper draws upon the application of GIS and remote sensing techniques to investigate the dynamic nature and management aspects of land in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. … This research reveals that the rate of accretion [coastal land growth] in the study area is slightly higher than the rate of erosion. Overall land dynamics indicate a net gain of 237 km2 (7.9 km2annual average) of land in the area for the whole period from 1985 to 2015.”  (Ahmed et al., 2018)

12. 54% of ‘vulnerable’ SW Pacific Islands studied had shorelines that expanded from 2005-2015

“Summary: Atoll islands are low-lying accumulations of reef-derived sediment that provide the only habitable land in Tuvalu, and are considered vulnerable to the myriad possible impacts of climate change, especially sea-level rise. This study examines the shoreline change of twenty-eight islands in Funafuti Atoll between 2005 and 2015 … Most of the islands remained stable, experiencing slight accretion or erosion or a combination of both over time. The total net land area of the islands increased by 1.55 ha (0.55%) between 2005 and 2010, and it has decreased by 1.90 ha (0.68%) between 2010 and 2015, resulting in a net decrease by 0.35 ha (0.13%). … Results indicate a 0.13% (0.35 ha) decrease in net island area over the study time period, with 13 islands decreasing in area and 15 islands increasing in area.  Substantial decreases in island area occurred on the islands of Fuagea, Tefala and Vasafua, which coincides with the timing of Cyclone Pam in March, 2015.”  (Hisabayashi et al., 2018 )
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Winter To Arrive Early Across Central Europe As Solar Activity Remains Quietest in 200 Years

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The weather models are all now pointing to wintry weather pushing into Europe next week, after a year of near record warm temperatures. Is a cold winter in store?

German skeptic weather and climate blogger Schneefan (Snow Fan) here writes that the winter most likely will be starting early this year, but it remains a question if the colder, more wintery conditions will persist throughout the winter.

The current low solar activity favors it will, as studies show Europe’s winters turn harsher when solar activity is quiet. Over the past few days, the models have been in agreement in showing that cold wintry weather is approaching in the days ahead.

Schneefan writes that the big 3 weather models ECMWF (Europe), GFS (USA) and GEM (Canada) have all been projecting the same development:

Shown above are the prognoses dated 10 November, 2018, from ECMWF (Europe), GFS (USA) and GEM (Canada) for the 20th of November. Source: Wetterzentrale

Yesterday the three models forecast the following for November 19:

Source: Wetterzentrale

The stratospheric models from ECMWF und GFS also point to an early wintery weather pattern change, with a large trough extending over the entire Mediterranean and an extensive high over Scandinavia and Northern Russia:

Comparison of the ECMWF (150 hPa, 14 km altitude) and GFS (100 hPa, about 16 km altitude) prognoses November 20. This unusual large weather pattern signifies a change in the wind patterns and favor cold Russian air moving over Europe . If the models are right, it would mean an early start for winter in Europe. Source: ECMWF and GFS.

WO/GFS already foresees frost for Eastern Europe this weekend:

 

Snow is also forecast to spread across large regions of eastern Europe early next week:



Large parts of Germany and Europe could see snow cover at the end of November:

Schneefan writes that the conditions could be similar to those seen in the winters of 2005/06 and 2010/11. One reason, Schneefan writes:

We now find ourselves in a multiple-year solar minimum of weak solar cycles that is the weakest in the last 200 years.

Just recently the GFS06 showing a northern position (Greenland/Atlantic blocking) and further massive winter invasions from the north on November 29, 2018.

So while Europe may be enjoying agreeable mild weather for now, models show that it may very well end abruptly. Preparations for winter should be done over the coming days.

Global warming eliminating snow and ice remains a myth. Soon expect to hear warmist scientists claim the cold is due to the warming causing polar vortices. Don’t buy the nonsense. It’s BS science.

The truth is that this is just winter as usual, and the climate has not really changed that much.

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Switzerland’s Linth Region Says No To Wind Industry Landscape Blighting

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Proposed wind turbines in Switzerland’s Linth region have been rejected by local communities, the media report. Parts of Switzerland want no part of blighting their landscape in the name of environmental protection.

Hit-tip: a reader from Switzerland

Little wonder!

Here’s what wind energy opposition organization Linth Gegenwind (Linth Headwind) shows what the otherwise idyllic Swiss landscape would end looking like by 2040 if the projects went ahead.

An artist’s depiction of what the Linth region would look like by 2040 if proposed wind projects were approved. Sanity appears to have returned. Image: Linth Gegenwind.

Wind energy is losing its luster for many reasons, but among them is the obvious industrial blight to the landscape they cause.

Wind turbines in Bilten rejected

In the latest step to protect the landscape from industrialization, Swiss SRF public broadcasting here reported on November 6 that the up to 5 controversial wind turbines, which had been planned to be erected in the middle of a “densely residential area”, were rejected on the grounds they would lead to “landscape blighting”.

The SRF quotes local Glarner government councilman Kaspar Becker:

We have come to the conclusion that it is not necessarily clever to pursue such things in densely populated areas.”

In response, wind energy opposition site Linth Gegenwind writes: “Common sense has prevailed!”

Honegg-Oberfeld wind park flat out rejected

Also recently the Swiss online appenzell24.ch has reported that the proposed Honegg-Oberfeld wind park was outright rejected.

On November 6, 2018, Appenzell24 wrote the local commission decided against the Honegg-Oberfeld district as a wind power location. Thus no wind farm can be built there.

On this, wind energy protest organization Linth Gegenwind writes at its website:

The reason is, above all, protection of the landscape. During the consultation process there were 60 in favor and 500 against the planned wind farm. Opponents also include Appenzell Ausserrhoden, St. Gallen, the state of Vorarlberg and the community presidents’ conference Ausserrhoden.”

According to the Appenzell24.ch, the 5 wind turbines with a hub height of 135 meters, would have resulted in “massive disadvantages for the landscape’s appearance”, according to opponents.

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Claim: Real-World Spectral Measurements Show The ‘Greenhouse Theory Is Wrong’ – ALL Gases Are GHGs

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Ninety-nine percent of the Earth’s atmosphere is made up of two gases: (78%) nitrogen (N2) and (21%) oxygen (O2). Neither is considered an IR-absorbing/re-emitting greenhouse gas (GHG) like (0.041%) carbon dioxide (CO2) or (0.00018%) methane (CH4).

Utilizing real-world Raman spectrometer data, an independent researcher from Sweden has found both N2 and O2 do indeed absorb radiation, or function as GHGs. If true, the CO2-is-a-special-heat-trapping-gas conceptualization effectively collapses.

Image Source: ResearchGate

A new paper entitled “Quantum Mechanics and Raman Spectroscopy Refute Greenhouse Theory” has recently been made available online.

Written by Blair D Macdonald, an independent researcher specializing in fractral geometry and quantum mechanics, the analysis utilizes real-world IR spectral measurements from a Raman spectrometer (laser).

Concisely, Macdonald has determined that CO2 is no more “special” a gas absorber and re-emmitter of radiation than nitrogen or oxygen, even though the latter are not considered greenhouse gases.

What follows is but a tiny snapshot of some key points from this comprehensively-sourced paper.

Note: It would be advisable that interested readers – especially those who are rightly skeptical of iconoclastic analyses like these – should read the text in some detail before commenting.  Turning the spotlight on papers that question conventional wisdom is primarily intended to elicit open-minded discussion.  It is not intended to convey we have arrived at a definitive conclusion about the authenticities of the CO2 greenhouse effect.

Macdonald, 2018

Quantum Mechanics and Raman Spectroscopy

Refute Greenhouse Theory

Abstract:  Greenhouse theory’s premise, nitrogen and oxygen are not greenhouse gases as they do not emit and absorb infrared radiation, presents a paradox; it contradicts both quantum mechanics and thermodynamicswhere all matter above absolute 0° Kelvin radiates IR photons.  It was hypothesized these gases do radiate at quantum mechanics predicted spectra, and these spectra are observed by IR spectroscopy’s complement instrument, Raman spectroscopy; and N2 spectra can be demonstrated to absorb IR radiation by experiment, and application o the N2-CO2 laser.  It was found the gases do possess quantum predicted emission spectra at 2338 cm−¹ and 1156 cm−¹ respectively, both well within the IR range of the EMS, and are only observed – and their temperatures accurately measured – by Raman spectrometers.  Raman spectrometers measure, more accurately, the Keeling curve, and have application with meteorological Lidars and planetary atmospheric analysis.  The N2-CO2 Laser showed – contrary to current greenhouse theory – N2 absorbs electrons or (IR) photons at its – metastable ‘long-lasting’ – spectra mode.  It was argued atmospheric CO2, as a law, is heated by the same mechanism as the N2-CO2 laser: nitrogen (first) and the entire atmosphere absorbs IR radiation directly from the Sun, just as it heats water on the ocean surfaceWith these findings, greenhouse theory is wrongall gases are GHGs [greenhouse gases] – and needs review.”

 

 

Image(s) Source: Macdonald, 2018
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Arctic Sea Ice Soars, Polar Bears Start Hunt Early – 2nd Year In A Row!

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Despite the warm year seen in Central Europe so far this year, and all the claims that it’s due to climate warming, the globe in fact has shown it’s been cooling off, or at least not warming at all.

Hat-tip: Schneefan

UAH satellite measurements of temperature at 1500 m altitude in October 2018 came in at an anomaly of + 0.22°C with respect to the WMO climate mean from 1981-2010. That’s four tenths of a degree less than October, 2017.

So far 2018 is the third year in a row that the globe has cooled off from it’s El Nino peak set in 2015. Especially large parts of North America have seen a cold October, as an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows:

Arctic stable over past decade

And despite earlier predictions of an ice-free late summer Arctic made by alarmist climate scientists years ago, Arctic sea ice has in fact stabilized over the past 10 years. This year the Northwest passage was closed the entire year.

Arctic sea ice extent has exploded since early November, gaining over 200,000 km² daily on average, as depicted by the following Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) chart:

Hudson Bay freeze-up earlier than average for 2nd year

The surprising ice burst contradicts claims that polar bears have been in trouble. Polar bear biologist and expert Dr. Susan Crockford reports here:

This is the second year in a row that freeze-up of Western Hudson Bay ice has come earlier than average” and that “it’s unlikely that a strong wind will again blow the newly-formed ice offshore (as happened earlier this year) because the ice is more extensive.”

According to Dr. Crockford: “Ice has been developing rapidly over the last couple of days.”

The Canadian Ice Service chart for 10 November shows the ice very clearly:

Sea ice Canada 2018 Nov 10

Winter hitting northern hemisphere earlier

In October, snow cover over North America stood at 9.7 million square kilometers, which is some 1.7 million square kilometers over the mean of the past 50 years.

Source: Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

The October snow cover trend is also the same story for the entire northern Hemisphere, hat-tip: Kirye:

Source: Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

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Max Planck Institute Climate Modeler Admits: “Reprieve Extended 10 Years” …”Earlier Models Too Sensitive”!

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Climate modeler Jochem Marotzke: more time to decarbonize, earlier climate models were too sensitive

=========================================================
Correction (12 November 2018): Dr. Lüning writes that he had to modify his post on Marotzke a bit. “Marotzke did not mean CO2 climate sensitivity but that more CO2 is buffered, adding less to the atmosphere.” However, the goalposts still have been moved back and we still get 10 more years.
==========================================================

Hat-tip: Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt

On October 5, 2018, German national weekly Spiegel here presented a noteworthy interview with Germany’s top climate modeler, Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg.

Top German climate modeler, Jochem Marotzke, Director of the Hamburg-based Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Image: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.

Spiegel wrote in its sub headline:

Unexpected extra time in the climate scenario: ‘Our reprieve has been extended by about ten years’ Physicist and climate researcher Jochem Marotzke explains why humanity has more time to stop global warming than previously thought.”

Or in other words, German skeptics Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt write at their Die kalte Sonne blog, “the sensitivity of CO2 was obviously overestimated.”

Yes, the climate goalposts just got moved back once again.

Earlier skeptic claims of overly sensitive models now spot on

More than 6 years ago in 2012, Lüning and Vahrenholt had already pointed out the problem of over-sensitive models in their book “Die kalte Sonne” – a claim that Marotzke back then said was “completely outlandish”.

Naturally today Lüning and Vahrenholt find themselves somewhat vindicated, and are confident more vindication is on the way as the reality of climate change becomes increasingly known.

We can emit “at least twice as much”

In the Spiegel interview, conducted editor Olaf Stamp, Marotzke was asked about how much CO2 we could still add to the atmosphere:

MAROTZKE: […] According to the latest climate scenarios, the amount of CO2 that we may emit is far greater than previously assumed – a fundamental point.

SPIEGEL: So we’ve been given amore time to reduce CO2 emissions?

MAROTZKE: Exactly. That’s what today’s improved models show. Our remaining CO2 budget for the 1.5°C target is in fact at least twice as much as previously thought: almost 1 trillion tonnes. Thus our reprieve has been extended about 10 years. Of course, it makes a huge difference if we have to bring the emissions of greenhouse gases down to zero in 15 years or 25 years. I assume that this will be the key message in the special report.”

And, according to Marotzke:

Our earlier models are too sensitive in one crucial place […]”

Here the Hamburg-based Max Planck Institute for Meteorology director is talking about CO2 climate sensitivity. And Lüning and Vahrenholt write: ” And when Marotzke says this, then it has real weight.”

IPCC Report politicized, “long deviated from the scientific basis”

In the Spiegel interview, which took place three days before the IPCC report was released, Marotzke suspected that the 1.5-degree report of the IPCC was to play down the danger of climate change. But when the report came out, it conveyed the opposite, namely worsened climate warnings.

This, according to Lüning and Vahrenholt, “is an indication that it is more a political report than a scientific account. Apparently the IPCC report authors, handpicked by politics, have already long deviated from the scientific basis.”

1.5°C target ” came as a surprise to us climatologists”

When asked by Spiegel why the 1.5°C target was used instead of 2°C:

SPIEGEL: Why was the limit lowered from 2 degrees to 1.5 degrees?

MAROTZKE: That came as a surprise to us climatologists as well. Especially the West Pacific island states insisted on 1.5 degrees at the Paris negotiations because they would be threatened by the rise of the sea level already at 2 degrees. However in most parts of the world, especially in Europe, we do not expect much difference between a 1.5-degree world and a 2-degree world.”

Politics overruling science

“Once again, political motives were more important than science,” Lüning and Vahrenholt write in response to Marotzke’s comments.

“Curiously enough, the Pacific Islanders also ignore the fact that they live on growing coral islands, which have already withstood much stronger sea-level rise rates in the transition from the last ice age to today’s interglacial. One has to assume that, above all, this should accelerate the path to the international coffers for climate compensation payments,” say skeptics Lüning and Vahrenholt.

The whole Spiegel interview is behind a paywall at spiegel.de.

Rejects claims of tipping points taking place

Marotzke also explained that signs of the alleged tipping points coming from the Potsdam Institute were rather weak. He also flat out rejected the tipping points of a stalling Gulf Stream and melting West Antarctic.

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CNN Accused Of Spreading Meat-Is-Bad-For-You “Fake Science” …”CNN Reporter Should Know Better”

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CNN and the Guardian just reported on a new study suggesting meat is bad for human health (even though humans and their ancestors have been eating and thriving on it for some 3 million years).

The authors also suggest that the healthy alternative is the vegan diet!

Meat tax “could save 220,000 lives per year”?

The team of scientists led by Dr. Marco Springmann who authored the new study published in the journal Public Library of Science ONE claim that a global meat tax “could save 220,000 lives and cut health care bills by $41 billion” a year.

The study’s authors assert that meat consumption increases risk of heart disease, cancer, stroke and diabetes, and is even “carcinogenic when eaten in processed forms, including sausages, bacon and beef jerky” and thus comparable to “cigarettes and alcohol”.

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Quality Control Sorely Needed In Climate Science: Half Of Peer-Reviewed Results Non-Replicable, Flawed.

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“A number of biases internal and external to the scientific community contribute to perpetuating the perception of ocean calamities in the absence of robust evidence.” Duarte et al., 2015

Image Source: Larcombe and Ridd, 2018

Within a matter of days after the press release for a newly published Nature paper spewed the usual it’s-worse-than-we-thought headlines throughout the alarmosphere (Washington Post, BBC, New York Times), the paper’s results were assessed to have “major problems” by an author of multiple CO2 climate sensitivity papers (Lewis and Curry, 2015, 2018).

A glaring miscalculation was quickly spotted that changed not only the results, but consequently undermined the conclusion that estimates of climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 may be too low.

And yet the paper was able to pass through peer review anyway.

Dr. Michael Mann’s error-riddled 2016 paper

A few years ago Dr. Michael Mann was the lead author of an embarrassingly non-scientific paper fraught with glaring methodological and statistical errors.

A post-publication reviewer (statistician Dr. William Briggs) wrote in his point-by-point critique of the paper that “Mann’s errors are in no way unique or rare; indeed, they are banal and ubiquitous.”

Despite the glaring errors, the paper made it through peer-review and was published in Nature‘s Scientific Reports journal anyway.

“Hoax” papers can get published in 70% of peer-reviewed journals

Analyses indicate that “fake peer review” often goes undetected, and as many as 7 of 10 peer-reviewed journals are apt to publish a deliberately-written “hoax” paper.

Any reviewer with more than a high-school knowledge of chemistry and the ability to understand a basic data plot should have spotted the paper’s shortcomings immediately. Its experiments are so hopelessly flawed that the results are meaningless. … The hoax paper was accepted by a whopping 157 of the journals and rejected by only 98. Of the 106 journals that did conduct peer review, 70% accepted the paper”  (Murphy, 2017  The Failure of Peer Review)

A new paper cites analyses that find half of peer-reviewed science results are flawed, not replicable

Earlier this year, a review paper (Larcombe and Ridd, 2018) published in the journal Marine Pollution Bulletin delivered a stinging rebuke to the modern version of science’s disturbing lack of replicability and verifiability.

Image Source: Larcombe and Ridd, 2018

The authors go on to detail a large volume of examples when peer-review failed to detect errors in Great Barrier Reef (GBR) coral research.

Confirmation bias appears to permeate the peer-reviewed literature, slanted in the direction of finding evidence for catastrophic decline in coral health.  This isn’t the first time that marine research has been called out for overselling calamity (see Cressey, 2015, “Ocean ‘calamities’ oversold, say researchers – Team calls for more scepticism in marine research.”) and falling “into a mode of groupthink that can damage the credibility of the ocean sciences”.

As just a single example among the many provided, Larcombe and Ridd reviewed the De’ath et al. (2009) study in which an “unprecedented” decline in GBR corals was alleged to have occurred between 1990-2005.

After a reanalysis of the measurements and methods used, Larcombe and Ridd used corrected data to show there has actually been “a small increase in the growth rate” of corals since the early 1900s (see below image) instead of the dramatic decline after the 1990s documented in the peer-reviewed paper.

These errors slipped past the reviewers’ notice too.   The publication of flawed results has seemingly become so common that it’s no longer even surprising.

“This paper [De’ath et al. (2009): Declining coral calcification on the Great Barrier Reef.] studied 328 corals on the GBR, and indicated a 14% reduction in growth rates between 1990 and 2005. It stated that the corals of the GBR are declining “at a rate unprecedented in coral records reaching back 400 years”. Subsequent reanalysis of the data indicated that the apparent recent reduction in growth rate was caused by a) problems with the physical measurements of calcification, which systematically biased recent growth bands to give lower growth rates (D’Olivio et al., 2013; Ridd et al., 2013), and b) an unjustified assumption that coral growth rate does not change with the age of the coral (Ridd et al., 2013). With these taken into account, the dramatic fall in growth rate after 1990 is no longer evident, and a small increase in growth rates since the early 1900’s appears (Fig. 6). Further, D’Olivio et al. (2013), working on a different set of GBR corals, showed an increase in coral calcification rates on middle and outer shelf reefs, which together represent 99% of GBR corals, of 10% for the period ~1950 to ~2005, but a decrease of 5% per decade between 1930 and 2008 on inner-shelf reefs, which represent only 1% of GBR corals. Therefore, it would be hard to glean from these datasets that there is a documented decline in coral ‘growth’ parameters, and even harder to attribute change to a particular cause.”

Image Source: Larcombe and Ridd, 2018
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Occupational Health Expert Exposes The Serious Hazards Of Infrasound From Wind Turbines

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Earlier this year in Ljubljana, Slovenia, acoustics and health expert Dr. Mariana Alves Pereira explained the impacts low frequency infrasound can have on health. It’s far from pretty.

Infrasound is very low frequency (<20 Hz) and is below the threshold of human hearing. It is sensed by the human ear only as pressure waves.

Hat tip: Reader Jim Feasel

Dr. Alves Pereira has a Masters in Biomedical Engineering and a PhD in Environmental Sciences.

“It’s a problem to human health”

In her presentation she explains to the audience that because infrasound is of very low frequency, the wavelengths are very long and thus can easily penetrate thick barriers and into buildings. “This is why it’s a problem to human health.” The waves travel kilometers and are difficult to shield against.

Governments rely on inadequate measurements

The acoustic expert also describes why the dBA scale is inadequate for measuring infrasound and thus are irrelevant for their evaluation.

At the 12:30 mark she uses the example of a mink farm in Denmark located near a wind park and so is thus subjected to “acoustic pollution” from the wind turbines. Here she demonstrates how woefully inadequate the methods and measurements often used by permitting authorities for assessing acoustic pollution really are.

Neurological and cardiovascular damage

Later she illustrates how damaging infrasound can be to human health. For example aviation workers have a risk of epilepsy (a neurological problem) that is some 50 times higher than average (22:00) for the occupation and how workers had tumors, and cardiovascular disease from abnormal tissue growth caused by infrasound exposure.

At 33:09 mark, Dr. Alves Pereira presents the clinical stages of vibroacoustic disease for occupational exposures. Workers exposed to infrasound more than 10 years developed severe health damage, e.g. psychiatric disturbances, severe joint and muscle pain, blood in the urine or decreased vision, among others.

Horses near wind turbines developed “boxy foot”

At the 43:00 mark, Dr. Alves Pereira explains how at first they were skeptical of claims made by patients that infrasound had made them sick while at home. In 2000 her team began to look at the claims and found that non-occupational residents who were subjected long-term to infrasound indeed got sick.

At the 48:08 mark, Dr. Alves Pereira turns her attention to wind turbines.

In one example, in Portugal 4 wind turbines were installed within 800 meters of a home and began operation in November, 2006. Five months later in March 2007 the family members in the home were suffering serious health issues and the boy’s performance at school crashed. His energy had been sapped. The horses the family owned developed “boxy foot”.

Moreover, the previously mentioned mink farm in Denamrk suddenly saw hundreds of aborted fetuses (53:30), all caused by infrasound from the nearby wind turbines, experts suspect.

Post traumatic stress syndrome

At the 56:00 mark, Dr. Alves Pereira shows a home in Germany surrounded on two sides by wind turbines located less than 2000 meters away. When the family moved into the home, there had been only two turbines, but then came dozens of new turbines. The family was forced to convert into a bunker in a desparate attempt to shield themselves.

In Ireland a 9-year old child developed epilepsy and the 19-year old brother wound up with post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD) – as did the worker at the mink farm in Denmark. The house in Ireland had to be abandoned.

Dr. Alves Pereira sums up: “I know it’s kind of depressing, but these are the scientific facts what we have over 30 years of research.”

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EU Climate Policy “In Crisis” Says Director Of London-Based Foundation To Leading Japanese Daily

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Comments on Europe’s energy transition by Dr. Benny Peiser, Director of the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation, appeared in the Japanese Yomiuri Shimbun, the world’s leading daily in terms of circulation.

Image: Yomiuri Shimbun

Dr. Peiser gave a lecture at the Cannon Institute for Global Studies in Tokyo on October 1st and this was the basis for the Yomiuri Shimbun feature article.

Little dissent in Japan

Traditionally the Japanese population is virtually universal in its belief that the global warming of the past century is mostly due to man. But according to Japanese blogger Kirye: “It’s due in large part to the fact that the overwhelming mainstream media ignore climate science dissenting views, and uncritically report alarmist claims.”

Kirye, who wishes to remain anonymous, said she became skeptical of alarmist climate science in 2013 after having read books by Dr. Kiyohiko Ikeda, Shigenori Maruyama and Kiminori Itoh — rare dissenting voices in Japan.

Dr. Peiser, who received a Ph.D. from Frankfurt University in Germany, gave a lecture titled: “The Crisis of the EU Climate Policy“.

Early green party member turned off by the “exaggeration”

The Yomiuri Shimbun article starts by mentioning how in the late 1970s Dr. Peiser was involved in creating the German environmental political party “The Greens”, but wound up taking a realistic stance after doubts over exaggerations made by the environmentalists. One example was the claim Germany forests would die due to the acid rain problem.

In 2009, together with former UK Finance Minister Nigel Lawson, Dr. Peiser established the Global Warming Policy Foundation from the standpoint that balanced analyses and recommendations regarding global warming were necessary to avoid faulty policy.

Public opinion undergoing a transformation in Europe

In the Yomiuri Shimbun article Dr. Peiser says public opinion has undergone a transformation in Europe and that he senses “a clear debate growing over the last couple of years”.

The Israeli born Dr. Peiser says the EU has in fact been two-faced about energy and climate policy.

Image: Dr. Benny Peiser.

Climate, energy policy losing importance

The EU often claims it is ready for climate action, yet drags its feet when it comes to taking real action. “The tone has changed from consideration of environmental importance to a direction of considering a balance with the economy,” Peiser told the Yomiuri Shimbun.

He also notes that in a survey asking what is the most worrisome problem, “climate change is falling in rank” in Europe. “Problems such as immigration, economy, employment, and health are the highest now.”

Climate policy backfiring

In his lecture, Peiser noted the EU’s climate policies have failed to live up to the Paris Accord climate commitments to reduce CO2 emissions, have increased energy prices significantly, reduced European competitiveness, increased dependence on Russian energy and given rise to widespread public discontent.

Scaling back the subsidies

Now the energy transition to renewables is the causing Eurocrats to worry and European governments have been scaling back support for reneabkle energies through the introduction of a bidding system. “But the wind farm operators are not sure how profitable they will be. It is not a situation where building is progressing with vigor,” Dr. Peiser notes in the Yomiuri Shimbun article.

No real reductions foreseeable for Germany

He also added: “Germany will have to increase its reliance on fossil fuel power plants in order to eliminate nuclear power by 2022” and “it is impossible to substitute with unstable renewal energies that depend on the weather.”

He also believes that greenhouse gas emissions will increase over the next few years.

No unilateral solution

Dr. Peiser adds: “There are many countries in the world which are reluctant to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In order not to lose global economic competition, it is undesirable for European countries to unilaterally reduce greenhouse gas emissions. I do not think that the policies of European governments will change dramatically, but such discussions and assertions are gradually strengthening.”

Thanks to Kirye for translating the Yomiuri Shimbun Japanese text.

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Dr. Mann Says Man-Made Weather Change Isn’t Rocket Science. Observations Show It’s Not Even Science.

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Image source: 2 November 2018 Washington Post

According to climatologist Dr. Michael Mann, we human beings are significantly modulating the globe’s hydrological cycle by warming the planet.

Mann postulates that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) causes the wet regions of the Earth to get wetter, whereas the dry regions of the Earth get drier (“DDWW” in the scientific literature).  In other words, AGW causes extreme weather patterns to worsen, or occur with greater frequency and intensity.

Mann even finesses his readers by characterizing the link between AGW and extreme weather as so obvious and facile a layperson can understand it.  This is ostensibly what the epigram “It’s not rocket science” is designed to convey.

Real-world observations contradict Mann’s claims

Dr. Mann claims that “it’s not rocket science” that global warming has led to “unprecedented” extremes in droughts (too little precipitation) and floods (too much precipitation).  He insists that we must take “concerted action” to mitigate our use of fossil fuels so as to avert these “disastrous” and “devastating” extreme weather consequences.

Mann classifies those who disagree with him about the link between AGW and these extreme weather events as “climate deniers”.

Despite the certainty in the “rightness” of his claims, the real-world satellite observations of precipitable water  and precipitation changes during the last few decades do not confirm the narrative of an intensifying hydrological cycle in response to global warming.

For example, Mann claims that “a warmer ocean evaporates more moisture into the atmosphere”.  But recent observational evidence indicates that precipitable water has been declining over the global oceans for the last decade – the opposite of what Mann claims is happening.

• “According to the global observations, it is found that PWs [percipitable water] show uptrends over land and downtrends over the ocean in last 10 years [2007-2016], implying the widespread increase of water vapor in the troposphere over land.”  (Zhang et al., 2018)

Image Source: Zhang et al., 2018

Comprehensive analyses further reveal no detectable changes in the Earth’s precipitation patterns in recent decades, as a dry gets wetter and wet gets drier trend is about as likely to occur as a wet gets wetter and dry gets drier (DDWW) one.

• “Here we present an analysis of more than 300 combinations of various hydrological data sets of historical land dryness changes covering the period from 1948 to 2005. Each combination of data sets is benchmarked against an empirical relationship between evaporation, precipitation and aridity. Those combinations that perform well are used for trend analysis. We find that over about three-quarters of the global land area, robust dryness changes cannot be detected. … Only 10.8% of the global land area shows a robust ‘dry gets drier, wet gets wetter’ pattern, compared to 9.5% of global land area with the opposite pattern, that is, dry gets wetter, and wet gets drier. We conclude that aridity changes over land, where the potential for direct socio-economic consequences is highest, have not followed a simple intensification of existing patterns.” (Greve et al., 2014)
• “The take-home message from our study using the new 33+ years [1983-2015] of high-resolution global precipitation dataset is that there seems not to be any detectable and significant positive trends in the amount of global precipitation due to the now well-established increasing global temperature. While there are regional trends, there is no evidence of increase in precipitation at the global scale in response to the observed global warming.” (Nguyen et al., 2018)

Image Source: Nguyen et al., 2018
“In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe … Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends. … The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded (Hartmann et al., 2013) that globally there is no clear and widespread evidence of changes in flood magnitude or frequency in observed flood records. … North American trends in … frequency of extremes in the 1980s and 1990s were similar to those of the late 1800s and early 1900s. There was no discernible trend in the frequency of extreme events in Canada. The results of this study, for North America and Europe, provide a firmer foundation and support the conclusion of the IPCC (Hartmann et al., 2013) that compelling evidence for increased flooding at a global scale is lacking.”  (Hodgkins et al., 2017)
“The main objective of this paper is to detect the evidence of statistically significant flood trends across Europe using a high spatial resolution dataset. … Anticipated changes in flood frequency and magnitude due to enhanced greenhouse forcing are not generally evident at this time over large portions of the United States for several different measures of flood flows. … Thus, similarly to the main findings of Archfield et al. (2016) for the US, the picture of flood change in Europe is strongly heterogeneous and no general statements about uniform trends across the entire continent can be made.”  (Mangini et al., 2018)
“In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. … Results indicated that … the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and for most of the CONUS, drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.”  (McCabe et al., 2017)
For the extreme drought and flood events in total, more frequent of them occurred in the 1770s and 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1920s and 1960s, among which the 1790s witnessed the highest frequency of extreme drought and flood events totally.”  (Zheng et al., 2018)
“GIDMaPS climate data records can be used to assess the fraction of global land areas under D0 to D4 drought severity levels” (Hao et al., 2014)

Image Source: Hao et al., 2014

Mann believes AGW leads to more frequent and intensified heat waves

Mann maintains AGW has increased the likelihood that deadly and “unprecedented” heat waves will occur.  In the Washington Post article, he points out that 30,000 people died in the 2003 European heat wave, and that we can expect more of the same in the near future unless we “act”.

However, just as with the precipitation patterns, the real-world observations do not support these claims.

Scientists have concluded that heat waves are driven by natural variability (Dole et al., 2011, Shiogama et al., 2013Dole and Hoerling, 2014).

Furthermore, there have been no detectable long-term trends in increased heat waves during the last several decades.

For the conterminous United States, the highest number of heat waves occurred in the 1930s, with the fewest in the 1960s. The 2001–10 decade was the second highest but well below the 1930s. Regionally, the western regions (including Alaska) had their highest number of heat waves in the 2000s, while the 1930s were dominant in the rest of the country.” (Peterson et al., 2013 )
Heat waves are primarily driven by internal atmospheric variability (Schubert et al. 2011, Dole et al. 2011), but their frequency of occurrence and severity can be modulated by atmospheric boundary forcing. Soil moisture deficits have been shown to play an important role in intensifying heat wave severity (Huang and Van den Dool 1993, Fischer et al. 2007, Jia et al. 2016, Donat et al. 2016). … Low frequency SST variations may explain why there has not been any long-term trend of heat waves detected over the US during the 20th century, despite the increase of radiative forcing (Kunkel et al. 1999, Easterling et al. 2000).” (Ruprich-Robert et al., 2018)

Image Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

More people are dying from cold weather extremes – heat-related deaths are decreasing

Considering there is apparently an obvious, “it’s-not-rocket-science” link between AGW and increased heat wave frequency and intensity, there should be a concomitant uptick in both heat-related deaths and a decline in cold weather-related mortality.

Real-world observations indicate the opposite has occurred in the last several decades: cold weather deaths have been stable to increasing, whereas heat-related deaths have been declining throughout the world.

We demonstrate that cold temperatures contributed to higher attributable risks of mortality than hot temperatures in India during 2001–2013, consistent with previous findings based on nonlinear temperature–mortality associations drawn from mostly high-income countries. These previous findings reported an overall attributable risk of 7.29% (eCI 7.02 to 7.49) for cold temperature and 0.42% (0.39 to 0.44) for hot temperature, which are similar to our results for all ages. Among countries, our results are most comparable to those of Australia.” (Fu et al., 2018)
Cold temperatures exhibit larger attributable mortality (above 5%) compared to heat (around or below 1%) in all countries.  Cold-mortality impacts persisted throughout the study periods in most of the countries, although following different temporal patterns.  Canada, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, South Korea and the USA show a decreasing trend in heat-attributable AFs, from 0.45–1.66% in the first 5-year sub-period to 0.15–0.93% in the last 5-year sub-period. Heat impacts remained stable in UK and Brazil at around 0.2–0.4% and 0.6–0.7%, respectively, whereas it increased in Australia from 0.05% to 0.67%.” (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018)
“Projections of temperature-related mortality rely upon exposure-response relationships using recent data. Analyzing long historical data and trends may extend knowledge of past and present impacts that may provide additional insight and improve future scenarios. We collected daily mean temperatures and daily all-cause mortality for the period 1901–2013 for Stockholm County, Sweden, and calculated the total attributable fraction of mortality due to non-optimal temperatures and quantified the contribution of cold and heat. Total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures varied between periods and cold consistently had a larger impact on mortality than heat. Cold-related attributable fraction (AF) remained stable over time whereas heat-related AF decreased.”  (Oudin Åström et al., 2018)
“This study investigated the change in risks of mortality from heat waves and cold spells over time, and estimated the temporal changes in mortality burden attributed to heat waves and cold spells in Korea and Japan. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 53 communities in the two countries from 1992 to 2015. Two-stage time-series regression with a time-varying distributed lag model and meta-analysis was used to assess the impacts of heat waves and cold spells by period (1990s, 2000s, and 2010s). In total population, the risks of heat waves have decreased over time; however their mortality burden increased in the 2010s compared to the 2000s with increasing frequency. On the other hand, the risk and health burden of cold spells have increased over the decades.”  (Lee et al., 2018)
“We investigated the lag structure of the mortality response to cold and warm temperatures in 18 French cities between 2000 and 2010. … The fraction of mortality attributable to cold and heat was estimated with reference to the minimum mortality temperature. … Results: Between 2000 and 2010, 3.9% [CI 95% 3.2:4.6] of the total mortality was attributed to cold, and 1.2% [1.1:1.2] to heat.”  (Pascal et al., 2018)
“We conducted a time-series analysis using daily temperature data and a national dataset of all 8.8 million recorded deaths in South Africa between 1997 and 2013. Mortality and temperature data were linked at the district municipality level and relationships were estimated with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis.  We found an association between daily maximum temperature and mortality. Total attributable mortality was 3.4%, mostly from cold (3.0%) rather than heat (0.4%).”  (Scovronick et al., 2018)
“The trends based on the NOAA meteorological data show that changes in the length of the heat wave events equal or beyond 3 days of duration are not significant. The mean maximum temperature of the heat wave is also close to stable over the 140-year period of study with no significant increase. … Results obtained from the in-depth analysis of the NYT articles, corresponding to the dates of longer lasting heat wave events (i.e., equal or more than 6 days in duration), show that the number of deaths and people affected in New York City significantly declined. … The change in coping strategies mentioned in the newspapers articles and divided before and after the 1960s illustrates how the advent of air conditioning can be most likely contributed to the significant reduction in mortality due to extreme heat. … Also not significant are the trends in extreme precipitation (beyond 1.75 in. and beyond 3.5 in.) with significant inter-annual and interdecadal variability.”  (Depietri and McPhearson, 2018)

Images Source: Depietri and McPhearson, 2018

Mann claims AGW has caused an increase in global fire frequency

The it’s-not-rocket-science link between anthropogenic global warming and the frequency of wildfires is also not supported by real-world observational data.

Globally, there has been a significant decline in fire frequency during the last several decades, and wildfires have been less common in the last century than at any time in the past 2000 years“.

“Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth’s surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. … However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. … Analysis of charcoal records in sediments [Marlon et al., 2008] and isotope-ratio records in ice cores [Wang et al., 2010] suggest that global biomass burning during the past century has been lower than at any time in the past 2000 years.”  (Doerr and Santín, 2016)
We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001–2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity.”  (Earl and Simmonds, 2018)
Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. … Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr−1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010.”  (Ward et al., 2018)

Image Source: (Ward et al., 2018)
“Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s. … Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s , human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.” (Marlon et al., 2012)

Images Source: Marlon et al., 2012

Real-world observational evidence – science – does not support Mann’s claims

Dr. Mann insists that the link between anthropogenic global warming and this past summer’s (NH) extreme weather events (droughts, floods, heat waves, and wildfires) is real and robust, even predicted by state-of-the-art climate modeling.

He finds the connection between AGW and extreme weather so compellingly self-evident that it’s easy for even the average reader to understand.  Hence his tactical use of the “it’s not rocket science” maxim.  Only “climate deniers” would disagree, he says.

Observational data from the real world do not affirm Mann’s claims, however.  And science is, in its essence, rooted in real-world observational evidence, not theoretical pontification about presumed attribution.

It is therefore quite reasonable to conclude that the link between AGW and extreme weather events is indeed not rocket science.

It may not even be science.

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