Leading German Economics Professor Calls Germany’s Energiewende An Energy Policy Calamity

In a recently released video interview by journalist Jörg Rehmann, University of Magdeburg economics professor Joachim Weimann explains why renewable energies have been a terrible idea for Germany so far.

Recently a high ranking expert commission set up by the German government even sharply criticized the German Energiewende (transition to renewable energies), saying it was leading the country down the wrong path. But as Prof. Weimann explains, the commission’s results fell on deaf ears.

Weimann starts the interview by explaining that the target of the Energiewende is to replace carbon-dioxide-emitting fossil fuels in order to protect our climate. One instrument used to achieve that target was Cap and Trade, in combination with the Energiewende, which Weimann says has not worked well at all. The U. of Magdeburg professor says that every cut that gets achieved in Germany gets offset elsewhere, and so net CO2 gets saved at all.

Weimann says that over the years policymakers promised and obstinately insisted that renewables were the way to go, and so ended up putting themselves in a position of which it is now impossible to back out. What leading politician is going to step forward and tell us that it was all a big mistake? “We find ourselves in quite a bind, says Weimann.

Weimann recommends that citizens step up and tell their leaders that what is currently happening is not in their interest, and that they need to exert influence media reporting on the issue. Weimann says:

It is very very difficult. Currently we have over 1000 citizens intiatives against wind power in Germany, yet they practically go unmentioned in media reporting. Compared to the resistance to nuclear energy, it is a crass disproportion. This shows us just how difficult it is to bring the issue to the forefront.”

Weimann hopes that the protests will grow until a critical mass is reached, and can no longer be ignored.

The professor points out that for years a number of institutions and experts have shown that the feed-in act is not functioning properly, that it wastes resources, and is bad policy that is having no impact on climate protection. He adds that the feed-in act entails extremely high costs, not only in terms of capital but also in terms of damage to the country’s landscape. “That means we are producing costs, and no yields. That is not good policy,” says Weimann.

Policymakers, in Weimann’s view, have long been ignoring what the scientific data and experts have told us with respect to renewable energies, but that they are refusing to back out it because they are so far deep into it and that it would be too embarrassing to do so.

Public kept in the dark by media, policymakers

According to Weimann, 80% of the German population are still in favor of renewable energies because they are not aware of the near zero-impact it is having on CO2 emissions and because they are poorly informed. It is in fact only when a wind park gets proposed nearby does a citizen really begin to get interested in what really is at stake and finds out what the true implications are. “Then they suddenly recognize the nonsense that is in fact happening.”

In Weimann’s view, renewable energy topics and calculations are far too complicated for the average citizen to deal with when they don’t feel they have to.

Total destruction of our landscape

Weimann notes that according to the Ministry of Environment, wind and solar energy in 2016 made up only 3.3% of Germany’s primary energy supply and that so far it represents only a “thimble” of the energy that is needed. And “when you compare it to the cost needed for it, not only financial, but also in terms of the burdens to the citizens who have these energy systems next door, we have to say it is first totally disproportional, and secondly that if we wish to meet our targets using wind, it would mean the total destruction of our landscape.”

So far only 3.3% of our primary energy need is being supplied by wind (28,000 turbines so far) and solar. Weimann asks us to imagine what it would take to reach the 95% target. He says the entire German landscape would be profoundly and fundamentally transformed into one massive industrial park that would lose all its attraction. In short: It’s a policy calamity.

Those were just some of Weimann’s comments and claims in just the first 17 minutes of the interview. More on this soon.

 

28 New Papers: Solar, Ocean Cycles Modulate Rainfall Trends

A Human Influence On Precipitation

‘Has Yet To Be Detected’

“Climate model output suggests decreasing rainfall as a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas radiative forcing.”

“[I]f anthropogenic forcing has impacted the [regional rainfall pattern], the signal has yet to be detected above the level of natural climate variability.” – Lachniet et al., 2017


According to climate models, precipitation trends were supposed to have intensified as a consequence of human activity.

And yet after compiling decades of observational and proxy (paleoclimate) evidence, it has been determined there has been no detectable global-scale human influence on rainfall patterns in the last hundred years (even hundreds of years).  Instead, any variability in the hydrological cycle can be strongly linked to non-anthropogenic forcing mechanisms, namely solar activity and natural oceanic/atmospheric oscillations (NAO, PDO, AMO, ENSO).


Miralles et al., 2013

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming. Yet, little unequivocal evidence of such an acceleration has been found on a global scale. This holds in particular for terrestrial evaporation, the crucial return flow of water from land to atmosphere. Here we use satellite observations to reveal that continental evaporation has increased in northern latitudes, at rates consistent with expectations derived from temperature trends. However, at the global scale, the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have dominated the multi-decadal variability. 

Modern Precipitation Trends Similar To Past Centuries


Verdon-Kidd et al., 2017

Overall, the inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of rainfall and runoff observed in the modern record (Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 22% for rainfall, 42% for runoff) is similar to the variability experienced over the last 500 years (CV of 21% for rainfall and 36% for runoff). However, the modern period is wetter on average than the pre-instrumental (13% higher for rainfall and 23% higher for runoff). Figure 9 also shows that the reconstructions contain a number of individual years (both wet and dry) of greater magnitude than what has been recorded in the instrumental record.


Kostyakova et al., 2017

A nested July–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 1777–2012 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine) for the Republic of Khakassia in Siberia, Russia. … The longest reconstructed dry period, defined as consecutive years with less than 25th percentile of observed July–June precipitation, was 3 years (1861–1863). There was no significant difference in the number dry and wet periods during the 236 years of the reconstructed precipitation.


Shi et al., 2017

Five of the six coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3), can reproduce the south-north dipole mode of precipitation in eastern China, and its likely link with ENSO. However, there is mismatch in terms of their time development. This is consistent with an important role of the internal variability in the precipitation field changes over the past 500 years.


Conroy et al., 2017

20th century precipitation variability in southern Tibet falls within the range of natural variability in the last 4100 yr, and does not show a clear trend of increasing precipitation as projected by models. Instead, it appears that poorly understood multidecadal to centennial internal modes of monsoon variability remained influential throughout the last 4100 yr. … Until we have a predictive understanding of multidecade to multi-century variability in the Asian monsoon system, it would be wise to consider the risk of prolonged periods of anomalously dry and wet monsoon conditions to be substantial (Ault et al., 2014). Such variability may also explain why the predicted anthropogenic increase in Asian monsoon precipitation is not widely observed.

Clarke et al., 2017

Corresponding ~4-8 year periodicities identified from Wavelet analysis of particle size data from Pescadero Marsh in Central Coast California and rainfall data from San Francisco reflect established ENSO periodicity, as further evidenced in the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and thus confirms an important ENSO control on both precipitation and barrier regime variability.


McCabe et al., 2017

In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. … Results indicated that … the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and for most of the CONUS [conterminous US], drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.

Lachniet et al., 2017

[M]onsoon dynamics appear to be linked to low-frequency variability in the ENSO and NAO, suggesting that ocean-atmosphere processes in the tropical oceans drive rainfall in Mesoamerica. … Climate model output suggests decreasing rainfall as a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas radiative forcing (Rauscher et al., 2008; Saenz-Romero et al., 2010). Our data show, however, that the response of the monsoon will be strongly modulated by the changes in ENSO and the NAO mean states … Our data also show that the magnitude of Mesoamerican monsoon variability over the modern era when the anthropogenic radiative forcing has dominated over solar and volcanic forcings (Schmidt et al., 2012) is within the natural bounds of rainfall variations over the past 2250 years. This observation suggests that if anthropogenic forcing has impacted the Mesoamerican monsoon, the signal has yet to be detected above the level of natural climate variability, and the monsoon response to direct radiative forcing and indirect ocean-atmosphere forcings may yet to be fully realized.

Past, Modern Precipitation Patterns Modulated By Solar Forcing


Lei et al., 2017

The precipitation variability on decadal to multi-centurial generally always reflects changes in solar activity and large-scale circulation, e.g., the ENSO and the EASM [East Asian Summer Monsoon] (Chen et al., 2011; Vleeschouwer et al., 2012; Feng et al., 2014). [D]uring the MWP [Medieval Warm Period], the wetter climate in this region was consistent with more frequent ENSO events, stronger EASM and higher solar activity, whereas the opposite was found for the LIA. In particular, d13Cac fluctuations on multi-decadal to centennial scales is consistent with the changes in solar activity, with fewer dry intervals corresponding to periods of minimum solar activity within dating errors, which are referred to as the Oort Minimum (AD 1010-1050), Wolf Minimum (AD 1280-1340), Sporer Minimum (AD 1420-1530), Maunder Minimum (AD 1645-1715) and Dalton Minimum (AD 1795-1820).


Warrier et al., 2017

Climatic periodicities recorded in lake sediment magnetic susceptibility data: Further evidence for solar forcing on Indian summer monsoon … The results obtained from this study show that solar variations are the main controlling factor of the southwest monsoon.

Zhang et al., 2017

The frequencies represent the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and solar activity on the precipitation from the southwestern United States. In addition, solar activity has exerted a greater effect than PDO on the precipitation in the southwestern United States over the past 120 years. By comparing the trend of droughts with the two fundamental frequencies, we find that both the droughts in the 1900s and in the 21st century were affected by the PDO and solar activity, whereas the droughts from the 1950s to the 1970s were mainly affected by solar activity.

Munz et al., 2017

Decadal resolution record of Oman upwelling indicates solar forcing of the Indian summer monsoon (9–6 ka) … We use geochemical parameters, transfer functions of planktic foraminiferal assemblages and Mg /  Ca palaeothermometry, and find evidence corroborating previous studies showing that upwelling intensity varies significantly in coherence with solar sunspot cycles. The dominant  ∼  80–90-year Gleissberg cycle apparently also affected bottom-water oxygen conditions.

Zhai, 2017

The time series of sunspot number and the precipitation in the north-central China (108° ∼ 115° E, 33° ∼ 41° N) over the past 500 years (1470–2002) are investigated, through periodicity analysis, cross wavelet transform and ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis. The results are as follows: the solar activity periods are determined in the precipitation time series of weak statistical significance, but are found in decomposed components of the series with statistically significance; the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is determined to significantly exist in the time series, and its action on precipitation is opposite to the solar activity; the sun is inferred to act on precipitation in two ways, with one lagging the other by half of the solar activity period.

Sun et al., 2017

[A]t least six centennial droughts occurred at about 7300, 6300, 5500, 3400, 2500 and 500 cal yr BP. Our findings are generally consistent with other records from the ISM [Indian Summer Monsoon]  region, and suggest that the monsoon intensity is primarily controlled by solar irradiance on a centennial time scale.

Zhu et al., 2017

Abrupt enhancements in the flux of pedogenic magnetite in the stalagmite agree well with the timing of known regional paleofloods and with equatorial El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, documenting the occurrence of ENSO-related storms in the Holocene. Spectral power analyses reveal that the storms occur on a significant 500-y cycle, coincident with periodic solar activity and ENSO variance, showing that reinforced (subdued) storms in central China correspond to reduced (increased) solar activity and amplified (damped) ENSO. Thus, the magnetic minerals in speleothem HS4 preserve a record of the cyclic storms controlled by the coupled atmosphere−oceanic circulation driven by solar activity.

Zielhofer et al., 2017

Western Mediterranean Holocene record of abrupt hydro-climatic changes Imprints of North Atlantic meltwater discharges, NAO and solar forcing …Early Holocene winter rain minima are in phase with cooling events and millennial-scale meltwater discharges in the sub-polar North Atlantic. … [A] significant hydro-climatic shift at the end of the African Humid Period (∼5 ka) indicates a change in climate forcing mechanisms. The Late Holocene climate variability in the Middle Atlas features a multi-centennial-scale NAO-type pattern, with Atlantic cooling and Western Mediterranean winter rain maxima generally associated with solar minima.

Matveev et al., 2017

An increase in atmospheric moisture for the warm period of the year (May–September) since 1890s, and mean annual temperatures since the 1950s was identified. During the same time period, there was a marked increase in amplitude of the annual variations for temperature and precipitation. … These fluctuations [atmospheric moisture, mean annual temperatures] are consistent with 10–12-years Schwabe–Wolf, 22-years Hale, and the 32–36-years Bruckner Solar Cycles. There was an additional relationship found between high-frequency (short-period) climate fluctuations, lasting for about three years, and 70–90-years fluctuations of the moisture regime in the study region corresponding to longer cycles.

Luthardt and Rößler

The 11 yr solar cycle, also known as Schwabe cycle, represents the smallest-scaled solar cyclicity and is traced back to sunspot activity (Douglass, 1928; Lean, 2000), which has a measurable effect on the Earth’s climate, as indicated by the Maunder minimum (Usoskin et al., 2015). Global climate feedback reactions to solar irradiance variations caused by sunspots are complex and hypothesized to be triggered by (1) variation in total energy input (Cubasch and Voss, 2000), (2) the influence of ultraviolet light intensity variation on composition of the stratosphere (Lean and Rind, 2001), (3) the effect of cosmic rays on cloud formation (Marsh and Svensmark, 2000; Sun and Bradley, 2002), and/or (4) the effect of high-energy particles on the strato- and mesosphere (Jackman et al., 2005). …  [L]ike today, sunspot activity caused fluctuations of cosmic radiation input to the atmosphere, affecting cloud formation and annual rates of precipitation.

Park, 2017

[S]olar activity drove Holocene variations in both East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Shi et al., 2017

Our results imply that the synchronous change in the Asian–Australian monsoon may be caused by inherent solar variations, further strengthening previous findings.

Past, Modern Precipitation Patterns Modulated By AMO/PDO/NAO/ENSO


Macdonald and Sangster, 2017

Statistically significant relationships between the British flood index, the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are identified. The use of historical records identifies that the largest floods often transcend single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood-rich period is not unprecedented. … Solar forcing can manifest itself in a variety of different ways on flood patterns through modification of the climate (Benito et al., 2004). Several series indicated increased flood frequency during the late eighteenth century corresponding to the Dalton Minimum (AD 1790–1830), with notable flooding across catchments in the 8-year period AD 1769 1779, which was a climatic period considered to include the sharpest phases of temperature variability during the “Little Ice Age” (Lamb, 1995; Wanner et al., 2008).

Malik et al., 2017

[W]e investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR [Indian summer monsoon rainfall]. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO.

Valdés-Pineda et al., 2017

This study analyzes these low-frequency patterns of precipitation in Chile (>30 years), and their relationship to global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), with special focus on associations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) indices. … We conclude that a significant multi-decadal precipitation cycle between 40 and 60 years is evident at the rain gauges located in the subtropical and extratropical regions of Chile. This low-frequency variability seems to be largely linked to PDO and AMO modulation.

Reischelmann et al., 2017

We document that long-term patterns in temperature and precipitation are recorded in dripwater patterns of Bunker Cave and that these are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Lapointe et al., 2017

This paper investigates an annually-laminated (varved) record from the western Canadian Arctic and finds that the varves are negatively correlated with both the instrumental Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during the past century and also with reconstructed PDO over the past 700 years, suggesting drier Arctic conditions during high-PDO phases, and vice versa. These results are in agreement with known regional teleconnections, whereby the PDO is negatively and positively correlated with summer precipitation and mean sea level pressure respectively.

Lim et al., 2017

Our study demonstrated that flood frequency and climate changes at centennial-to-millennial time scales in South Korea have been coupled mainly with ENSO activity, suggesting that the hydrologic changes, including flooding and drought, in East Asia are coupled to the centennial-to-millennial-scale atmospheric-oceanic circulation changes represented by the ENSO pattern.

Reynolds et al., 2017

Evidence derived from instrumental observations suggest that Atlantic variability, associated with changes in SSTs and fluctuations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is directly linked with broader scale climate variability, including Brazilian and Sahel precipitation (Folland et al., 1986 and Folland et al., 2001), Atlantic hurricanes and storm tracks (Goldenberg et al., 2001 and Emanuel, 2005), and North American and European temperatures (Sutton and Hodson, 2005, Knight et al., 2006 and Mann et al., 2009).

Park et al., 2017

According to our results, the central Mexican climate has been predominantly controlled by the combined influence of the 20-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the 70-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Bianchette et al., 2017

Seven periods of increased water level, varying in duration, occurred during the backbarrier period, with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely the main climatic mechanism causing these periodic shifts in the paleo-precipitation levels. We suggest that the deepest water levels detected over the last ~3200 years correlate with periods of increased ENSO activity.

Coolest Central European September In Years…Heavy Snowfall Forecast For The Alps This Week!

Germany’s DWD national weather service has the preliminary September 2017 report out. According to the result of the data measured by the country’s 2000 weather stations, last month was cooler than normal.

September 2017 in Germany saw a mean temperature of 12.7°C, which was 4.2°C cooler than last year’s record warm September (16.9°C). This means that the month came in 0.8°C colder than the 1981-2010 mean.

September in Central Europe was also cloudier and wetter than normal. The cool, autumn-like weather was caused by low pressure systems pumping cool air from northern Europe.

The DWD also reports some regions in Germany saw frost, for example Deutschneudorf-Brüderwiese recorded a temperature -1,5 °C on the morning of September 19.

Austria sees coolest September in 10 years

Also Austria’s ZAMG national weather service reported that September in the mountainous country recorded the coldest September in 10 years, and that in the mountains it was even the coldest in over 15 years. The following ZAMG chart shows the country’s temperature anomaly from the mean:

Kühlster September seit zehn Jahren

Temperature anomaly chart for Austria, September 2017. Source: ZAMG.

 Austria’s preliminary September data is based on measurements taken from 270 stations scattered across the country using SPARTACUS .

Austria’s September 2017 is summed up by the ZAMB in three words: cool, rainy and dreary. The mean temperature was 1.5°C below the long-term mean and was the coolest since 2007.

New snowfall records in Austria

ZAMG climatologist Alexander Orlik reported:

There were also some new record snowfalls. For example at the Villacher Alpe, 2140 meters above sea level, it was the the snowiest September since snowfall measurements began in 1925. Over the month some 78 cm of fresh snow fell.”

Cool weather, heavy snow forecast for early October

The colder temperatures are expected to continue through early October, according to Schneefan at climate and weather site wobleibtdieerderwaermiung.de here, citing meteociel. The following meteociel chart depicts the projection for October, 2017.

According to meteociel on September 28, cold weather is projected to dominate Central and Eastern Europe in October (850 hPa – approx. 1500 m). Source: www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php

The US GFS also confirms this cool projection.

Heavy snowfall forecast for the Alps

Finally Schneefan writes that “heavy snowfall is forecast for the week ahead across Austria and Switzerland!”

Up to 1 meter a new snow (orange/yellow) in the Alps of Southern Germany, Austria and Switzerland over the coming week. Source: www.bergfex.de/schneevorhersage/.

This fall global warming is taking a big break, at least over much of Central Europe.

Solar Activity Plays Key Role In North American Blizzard Frequency, Study Finds

Yet another study has been published showing that regional climate cycles are related to solar activity. The most recent suggest that blizzards in North America are related to solar activity cycles.

Blizzard in Kansas. Photo: NOAA – public domain.

==========================================

More Blizzards in North America During Solar Weak Phases

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

In January, 2017, a study by Jill Coleman and Robert Schwartz appeared in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology . The paper looked at blizzards in the USA. Blizzards are powerful snowstorms in connection with pronounced temperature drops. What follows is the abstract:

An Updated Blizzard Climatology of the Contiguous United States (1959–2014): An Examination of Spatiotemporal Trends
Blizzards are extreme winter storms that are defined by strong winds and falling or blowing snow that significantly reduces visibility for an extended period of time. For the conterminous United States, blizzard occurrence by county was compiled from Storm Data for 55 winter seasons from 1959/60 to 2013/14. Spatiotemporal patterns were examined for blizzard seasons (September–August) at annual, decadal, and monthly frequencies. Linear regression and spectral analysis were used to detect any blizzard cycles or trends. Societal impacts such as fatalities, injuries, property damage, and federal disaster declarations were also tallied. Data revealed 713 blizzards over the 55 years, with a mean of 13 events per season. Seasonal blizzard frequency ranged from one blizzard in 1980/81 to 32 blizzards in 2007/08. The average area per blizzard was 83 474 km2, or approximately the size of South Carolina. Blizzard probabilities ranged from 1.8% to 76.4%, with a distinct blizzard zone in North Dakota, western Minnesota, and northern South Dakota. Every month except July, August, and September has reported blizzards with a peak occurrence in December and January. Federal disaster declarations resulting from blizzards totaled 57, with more than one-half of them occurring in the twenty-first century. Storm Data attributed 711 fatalities during the 55-yr study period, with an average of one individual per event; 2044 injuries were reported, with a mean of nearly three per blizzard. Property damage totaled approximately $9.11 billion in unadjusted dollars, with an approximate mean of $12.6 million per storm.”

Unfortunately we cannot get much information from the abstract and the paper itself is hidden behind a paywall. However, the Daily Mail obviously had access to the paper and reported here some interesting details that unfortunately got no mention in the abstract:

The number of blizzards has DOUBLED in the past 20 years: Scientists blame global warming and sunspots for rise in storms

–From 1960-94, the US had an average of nine blizzards per year
–But since 1995, the annual average has risen to 19, recent study found
–More blizzards are forming outside normal season of October to March
–One explanation is the use of better methods to record severe storms

[…] Coleman claims sunspot cycles may also be to blame, with blizzards increasing in periods when sunspot activity has diminished. […] ‘Sunspot-minimum periods tend to coincide with more frequent polar outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere that could increase the likelihood for blizzard occurrence,’ Coleman told ABC News. ‘However, sunspot activity is only a small component in explaining the frequency of blizzard occurrence.'”

Germany’s Green Energy Project Close To Death: “EEG Feed-In Act Has Failed …Has To Go!”

Angela Merkel’s grand coalition government with the opposition SPD socialist party took a massive beating in last Sunday’s election, with both her CDU/CSU party and the coalition partner SPD socialist party coming in at post-war historic lows.

Since then the SPD has announced it is no longer interested in continuing the grand coalition and instead will take the helm as the opposition force. The comfy, low-opposition government is over. This has got Merkel scrambling to find new partners to form a new government. Her only option available: forming a coalition with the business-friendly FDP free democrats – and the environmentalist Greens. That is not going to be easy by any means.

Merkel potential coalition partner cold on subsidies for renewables

Merkel of course would have no problems governing together with the greens, and the massive state media apparatus is already promoting it with abandon.

But there are wide chasms of difference between the potential coalition parties on a number of issues, especially on issue of renewable energy subsidies.

Yesterday at the leftist, Berlin-based Tagesspiegel here, FDP party boss Christian Lindner left a commentary where he “demands the end of the EEG feed-in reform act“. According to Lindner, Germany’s focus has been “religiously excessive” on climate protection “instead of on price and supply stability“. For too long have the consumers and industry been sacrificed at the alter of Climatism, and done so with no results.

“Green energies have failed”

According to Lindner:

The project of the century Energiewende [transition to green energies] has failed. None of the agreed targets will be reached. Climate protection is stalled, energy prices are rising and they are burdening us as electricity consumers, just as they are the industry and middle class. And not least of all it is becoming increasingly difficult to guarantee a secure power supply during the winter months.”

Worse than former communist East Germany

Lindner adds that even Communist East Germany could not have designed the system to be worse. Lindner then blasted the country’s high electricity prices and their detrimental impact on German competitivesness, writing that many companies have left the country. Moreover conventional power plants that are forced to run part time are no longer profitable, Prices he says, will continue to rise and that there is no end in sight.

24 billion euro annual burden, time to pull the plug

Lindner also claims that government reforms to the feed-in act have “gone out of control” and that this is burdening the German consumers to the tune of 24 billion euros annually, or more than 300 euros a year for a family of four.

Lindner is calling for scrapping the current feed-in act and replacing it altogether from scratch, saying what is needed is a Europe-wide energy policy and power grid. Secondly he says that renewable energies must stop being subsidized and that Europe should take its time to reduce CO2.

According to Lindner:

The EEG [feed-in act] no longer works and it is time to pull the plug.

To the contrary, the Greens are demanding that green energies be expanded even more rapidly and that diesel engines be banned by 2030. The split between the two potential junior coalition parties seems unsolvable, so much so that German flagship daily Die Welt here wrote that Lindner has even poured cold water on the idea of a CDU/CSU/Green/FDP coalition government. That could mean that the days of Angela Merkel may be numbered, and those of the Energiewende as well.

Gas and oil still very much in the future

The dream of reaching near zero CO2 emissions in Germany and worldwide is looking increasingly like pie-in-the-sky. The industry association representing purchasing and logistics in Germany writes here that oil and gas will continue to dominate the energy market even in 2050. Though it foresees growth of green energy in the future, it will be modest at best:

Although renewable energies will increase their share among the overall energy mix, the share of gas of oil in the global energy supply will fall 9% by 2050, from 53% today to 44%.”

In other words, should the global economy double by 2050, the consumption of fossil fuels will be more in 2050 than it is today.

Update: The 2017 Explosion Of Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Continues

120 Graphs, 90 New Papers 

It was four months ago that an article entitled  80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming appeared on this website.  The article received international attention and was “shared” tens of thousands of times.

In the last 4 months,  40 more graphs taken from 30 more new peer-reviewed scientific papers have made their way into the ever-growing volume of evidence that today’s climate is not only not unprecedented or unusual in the context of the last millennium, but modern temperature values are still among the coldest of the last 10,000 years.

In other words, there is nothing unprecedented or unusual about today’s climate.  Modern temperatures are still well within range of what has occurred naturally.

The roughly 3 dozen papers and graphs that have appeared in the scientific literature since the original list appeared 4 months ago are shown below.

The full list of 120 graphs from 90 new papers for 2017 can be found here:

‘Global’ Warming Disputed: 350 Graphs

A few late Northern Hemisphere additions to the 2016 volume can also be found below, as well as some recent additions to the list of 350 papers taken from the Ljungqvist (2010) Northern Hemisphere conglomeration.



Lüdecke and Weiss, 2017

By wavelet analysis, a new proof has been provided that at least the ~190-year climate cycle has a solar origin.  … G7 [global temperature over the last 2000 years], and likewise the sine representations have maxima of comparable size at AD 0, 1000, and 2000. We note that the temperature increase of the late 19th and 20th century is represented by the harmonic temperature representation, and thus is of pure multiperiodic nature. It can be expected that the periodicity of G7, lasting 2000 years so far, will persist also for the foreseeable future. It predicts a temperature drop from present to AD 2050, a slight rise from 2050 to 2130, and a further drop from AD 2130 to 2200.”


Abbot and Marohasy, 2017

The proxy measurements suggest New Zealand’s climate has fluctuated within a band of approximately 2°C since at least 900 AD, as shown in Figure 2. The warming of nearly 1°C since 1940 falls within this band. The discrepancy between the orange and blue lines in recent decades as shown in Figure 3, suggests that the anthropogenic contribution to this warming [1°C since 1940] could be in the order of approximately 0.2°C. [80% of the warming since 1940 may be due natural factors]. … [T]he increase in temperature over the last 100 years can be largely attributed to natural phenomena.


Gennaretti et al., 2017


Fuentes et al., 2017

“The summer (June through August) temperature reconstruction, extending back to 1038 CE, exhibits three warm periods in 1040–1190 CE, 1370–1570 CE and the 20th century and one extended cold period between 1570 and 1920 CE.”


Parker and Ollier, 2017

 In the centre of Australia, all the stations available in a circle of radius 1,000 km were showing very little or no warming, as still acknowledged in the GHCN v2 data set up to October 2011 (Fig. 6). … Table 1 presents the warming trend for the 30 longest temperature records of Australia collected in a single location, with measurements started before 1900 and continued until after 1985.  … In the 30 locations, the monthly mean maximum temperature is warming 0.0004°C/year, or 0.04°C/century. That means there is no change within the limits of accuracy of the measurements.


Cheung, 2017


Werner et al., 2017


Chand et al., 2017

“Introduction: The LIA [Little Ice Age] is a globally documented cooling event that began around the 13th or 14th century and culminated between the mid- 16th and mid-19th centuries. Although the cause of LIA glaciation is not fully understood, climatologists contend that reduced solar output, changes in atmospheric circulation as a result of a reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation and explosive volcanism could have decreased the global temperature.”


Balanzategui et al., 2017


Ge et al., 2017

“This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3◦C and 0.7◦C, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56◦ ± 0.42◦C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD 1201–70 are comparable to the present.”


Kobashi et al., 2017

“After the 8.2 ka event, Greenland temperature reached the Holocene thermal maximum with the warmest decades occurring during the Holocene (2.9 ± 1.4 °C warmer than the recent decades) at 7960 ± 30 years B.P. … For the most recent 10 years (2005 to 2015), apart from the anomalously warm year of 2010, mean annual temperatures at the Summit exhibit a slightly decreasing trend in accordance with northern North Atlantic-wide cooling. The Summit temperatures are well correlated with southwest coastal records (Ilulissat, Kangerlussuaq, Nuuk, and Qaqortoq).”

For the most recent 10 years (2005 to 2015), apart from the anomalously warm year of 2010, mean annual temperatures at the Summit exhibit a slightly decreasing trend in accordance with northern North Atlantic-wide cooling.  The Summit temperatures are well correlated with southwest coastal records (Ilulissat, Kangerlussuaq, Nuuk, and Qaqortoq).”


Demezhko et al., 2017

“GST [ground surface temperature] and SHF [surface heat flux] histories differ substantially in shape and chronology. Heat flux changes ahead temperature changes by 500–1000 years.”


Luoto and Nevalainen, 2017


Li et al., 2017

“The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR [Lower Yangtze Region, East China] area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).”


Larsen et al., 2017

[K]nowledge remains sparse of GICs [glaciers and ice caps] fluctuations in Greenland and whether they survived past warmer conditions than today, e.g. the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) ~8-5 cal. ka BP and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) ~1200-950 C.E. Only a few available studies have provided continuous records of Holocene glacier fluctuations in east Greenland (Lowell et al., 2013; Levy et al., 2014; Balascio et al., 2015) and west Greenland (Schweinsberg et al., 2017). These records show that local GICs [glaciers and ice caps] were significantly reduced and most likely completely absent during the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum].”


Zywiec et al., 2017


Ogurtsov et al., 2017

“Our analyses reveal appreciable and stable positive correlation between summer temperatures in Northern Fennoscandia and sea surface temperature in North Atlantic over AD 1567–1986. Thus a connection between climates of Northern Fennoscandia and North Atlantic basin is established for more than the last four centuries. Significant correlation was found between SST [sea surface temperatures] in NA [the North Atlantic] and solar activity (both instrumental data and proxies) during AD 1716–1986. … Thus, the connection between Northern Fennoscandian climate and solar activity, which has been previously established at century-scale (Ogurtsov et al., 2001, 2002, 2013) and millennial-scale (Helama et al., 2010), is confirmed for AD 1716–1986 over the entire frequency range using unfiltered records (with the exception for AMO reconstruction after Mann et al. (2009)).”


Arppe et al., 2017

“Factoring in respective age-model uncertainties, it appears that all major negative shifts, that is, ‘cold’ periods, in the δ18Olw record are roughly synchronous with periods of major negative anomalies in total solar irradiation and high modeled probabilities for extremely cold years in the Nordic Seas (Renssen et al., 2006), and widespread evidence of North Atlantic ‘cold spells’ (Bond et al., 2001; Sarnthein et al., 2003; Solomina et al., 2015; Wanner et al., 2008) linked to solar forcing.”


Turney et al., 2017

Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.”

 


Yeager and Robson, 2017

“[W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.”


Li, 2017

In the Southern Ocean, the increasing trend of the total OHC [ocean heat content] slowed down and started to decrease from 1980, and it started to increase again after 1995. In the warming context over the whole period [1970-2009], the Pacific was losing heat, especially in the deep water below 1000 m and in the upper layer above 300 m, excluding the surface 20 m layer in which the OHC kept increasing through the time.”


Bolton and Beaudoin, 2017

“Major late Holocene fluctuations include intervals of warmer (e.g. Medieval Warm Period) and cooler (e.g. Little Ice Age) climate. … The modern period [21st century] had temperature and precipitation values which were about 4% less than the Holocene average (Figure 6).”



Simon et al., 2017

“The Holocene coldest temperatures were observed during the Early Holocene, but temperature followed a gradual rise (from ca. 11.7 to 8 kyr cal. BP) to reach its maximal value during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (from ca. 8 to 4.5 kyr cal. BP). Holocene Thermal Maximum was characterized by summer air temperatures about 2.5 °C degrees higher than present.”


Mangerud and Svendsen, 2017

“Shallow marine molluscs that are today extinct close to Svalbard, because of the cold climate, are found in deposits there dating to the early Holocene. The most warmth-demanding species found, Zirfaea crispata, currently has a northern limit 1000 km farther south, indicating that August temperatures on Svalbard were 6°C warmer at around 10.2–9.2 cal. ka BP, when this species lived there. … After 8.2 cal. ka, the climate around Svalbard warmed again, and although it did not reach the same peak in temperatures as prior to 9 ka, it was nevertheless some 4°C warmer than present between 8.2 and 6 cal. ka BP. Thereafter, a gradual cooling brought temperatures to the present level at about 4.5 cal. ka BP. The warm early-Holocene climate around Svalbard was driven primarily by higher insolation and greater influx of warm Atlantic Water, but feedback processes further influenced the regional climate.”


Nan et al., 2017


Lasher et al., 2017

“This paper presents a multi proxy lake record of NW Greenland Holocene climate. … Summer temperatures (2.5–4 °C warmer than present) persisted until 4 ka [4,000 years ago] … Continual cooling after 4 ka led to coldest temperatures after 1.2 ka, with temperature anomalies 2-3°C below present.  Approximately 1000 km to the south, a 2-3°C July temperature anomaly (relative to [warmer than] present) between 6 and 5 ka was reported based upon chironomid assemblages near Illulisat and Jakobshavn (Axford et al., 2013). Across Baffin Bay on northeastern Baffin Island, HTM summer temperatures were an estimated ~5°C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene and 3.5°C warmer than present, based upon chironomid assemblages (Axford et al., 2009; Thomas et al., 2007). … Following deglaciation, the GrIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] retreated behind its present margins (by as much as 20-60 km in some parts of Greenland) during the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] (Larsen et al., 2015; Young and Briner, 2015).”


Chang et al., 2017

“The chironomid-based record from Heihai Lake shows a summer temperature fluctuation within 2.4°C in the last c. 5000 years from the south-east margin of the QTP [Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau]. … The summer temperature changes in this region respond primarily to the variation in the Asian Summer Monsoon. The variability of solar activity is likely an important driver of summer temperatures, either directly or by modifying the strength and intensity of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon. … We observed a relatively long-lasting summer cooling episode (c. 0.8°C lower than the 5000-year average) between c. 270 cal. BP and AD c. 1956. … The record shows cooling episodes occurred at c. 3100, 2600, 2100 and 1600 cal. BP.  This is likely related to the period defined as the Northern Hemisphere Little Ice Age (LIA; c. AD 1350–1850, equivalent to 600–100 cal. BP). These possibly relate to the 500-year quasi-periodic solar cycle. Cooling stages between c. 270 and 100 cal. BP were also recorded and these are possibly linked to the LIA suggesting a hemisphere-wide forcing mechanism for this event.”


Krossa et al., 2017


Albot, 2017

Growing paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the climatic signals of Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age events can be detected around the world (Mayewski et al., 2004; Bertler et al., 2011). … [T]he causes for these events are still debated between changes in solar output, increased volcanic activity, shifts in zonal wind distribution, and changes in the meridional overturning circulation (Crowley, 2000; Hunt, 2006).”


Ön et al., 2017

[T]he abrupt decline in both precipitation and temperature around 3.5 ka, 2.8 ka and 1.8 ka BP, which were also documented in the seismic records (Eris¸ et al., submitted), may have been the result of a coincidence of the strengthening of the Siberian high pressure system during winters (Rohling et al., 2002; Çagatay et al., 2014), and the gradual decrease in solar irradiance, especially around 2.8 ka BP (Roth and Joos, 2013), in accordance with changes in the North Atlantic (Bond et al., 2001). For the Holocene, the most striking result is that the spikes in precipitation and temperature records appear to closely follow the North Atlantic Bond events, whereas the trends do not. If the cause of the Bond events is indeed solar forcing, as claimed by Bond et al. (2001), then we can also state that the climate oscillations in the region were also greatly influenced by solar forcing.”


Chu et al., 2017


Zhang et al., 2017

“[S]ummer temperature variability at the QTP [Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau] responds rapidly to solar irradiance changes in the late Holocene”


Kotthoff et al., 2017


Yao et al., 2017


Jara et al., 2017


Zhang et al., 2017


Fischel et al., 2017


Li et al., 2017


Bird et al., 2017


Dodrill et al., 2017

“These archaeological reconstructions of average palaeo-SST during the 1500–1100 cal BP time-period suggest that the nearshore environments of Palau were slightly warmer than those today by approximately 1–2°C.”


Pendea et al., 2017  (Russia)

The Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) was a relatively warm period that is commonly associated with the orbitally forced Holocene maximum summer insolation (e.g., Berger, 1978; Bartlein et al., 2011). Its timing varies widely from region to region but is generally detected in paleorecords between 11 and 5 cal ka BP (e.g., Kaufman et al., 2004; Bartlein et al., 2011; Renssen et al., 2012).  … In Kamchatka, the timing of the HTM varies. Dirksen et al. (2013) find warmer-than-present conditions between 9000 and 5000 cal yr BP in central Kamchatka and between 7000 and 5800 cal yr BP at coastal sites.”

Stivrins et al., 2017 (Latvia)

“Conclusion: Using a multi-proxy approach, we studied the dynamics of thermokarst characteristics in western Latvia, where thermokarst occurred exceptionally late at the Holocene Thermal Maximum. …  [A] thermokarst active phase … began 8500 cal. yr BP and lasted at least until 7400 cal. yr BP. Given that thermokarst arise when the mean summer air temperature gradually increased ca. 2°C beyond the modern day temperature, we can argue that before that point, the local geomorphological conditions at the study site must have been exceptional to secure ice-block from the surficial landscape transformation and environmental processes.”

Bañuls-Cardona et al., 2017 (Spain)

“During the Middle Holocene we detect important climatic events. From 7000 to 6800 [years before present] (MIR 23 and MIR22), we register climatic characteristics that could be related to the end of the African Humid Period, namely an increase in temperatures and a progressive reduction in arboreal cover as a result of a decrease in precipitation. The temperatures exceeded current levels by 1°C, especially in MIR23, where the most highly represented taxon is a thermo-Mediterranean species, M. (T.) duodecimcostatus.”

Reid, 2017 (Global)

The small increase in global average temperature observed over the last 166 years is the random variation of a centrally biased random walk. It is a red noise fluctuation. It is not significant, it is not a trend and it is not likely to continue.”

Åkesson et al., 2017 (Norway)

“Reconstructions for southern Norway based on pollen and chironomids suggest that summer temperatures were up to 2 °C higher than present in the period between 8000 and 4000 BP, when solar insolation was higher (Nesje and Dahl, 1991; Bjune et al., 2005; Velle et al., 2005a).”

Molnár and Végvári, 2017 (SE Central Europe)

“Our study provides an estimate for the value of MAT of HTM of Pannon region with an interval of 0.4°C, relying on macroecological considerations. We calculate the temperature of the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] 1.3–1.7°C warmer than the present temperature.”

Lusas et al., 2017 (East Greenland)

“The lack of glacio-lacustrine sediments throughout most of the record suggests that the ice cap was similar to or smaller than present throughout most of the Holocene. This restricted ice extent suggests that climate was similar to or warmer than present, in keeping with other records from Greenland that indicate a warm early and middle Holocene. Middle Holocene magnetic susceptibility oscillations, with a ~200-year frequency in one of the lakes, may relate to solar influence on local catchment processes. … Air temperatures in Milne Land, west of our study area, based on preliminary estimates from chironomids, may have been 3–6°C warmer than at present (Axford et al. 2013), and in Scoresby Sund itself, warm ocean fauna, including Mytilus edulis and Chlamys islandica, both of which live far to the south today, occupied the fjords (Sugden and John 1965; Hjort and Funder 1974; Street 1977; Funder 1978; Bennike and Wagner 2013; Fig. 13).  … Recession of Istorvet ice cap in the last decade has revealed plant remains that show that the glacier was smaller than at present during the early stages of the Medieval Warm Period, but expanded during the late Holocene ca. AD 1150 (Lowell et al. 2013).”

Hu et al., 2017 (Yellow River, China)

“According to the pollen records in the HRYR [Headwater Region of the Yellow River], the climate in the Holocene thermal maximum was warmer and wetter than present (temperature was 2 -3 °C higher than present)

Xing et al., 2016 as adapted from Figure 7

Wilson et al., 2016

Ljungqvist, 2010

140-Year Data Show Correlation Between CO2 Emissions And Cyclone Energy “Essentially Near Zero”!

At Twitter physical scientist Ned Nikolov informs us of a 2015 paper that “finds NO trend in global Tropical Cyclone Activity between the decade 1965-1974 and the present. Hence, warming has NOT affected hurricane activity for the past 45 yrs! ”

The paper’s abstract:

The ACE index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described.”

“Essentially zero” correlation over past 140 years

In a separate tweet, Nikolov examines the scientific evidence behind all the speculation & claims have been made by both the media and some scientists about an alleged connection between human industrial growth and hurricane activity over the past 100+ years.

Here’s what he found:

Nikolov writes that the correlation between annual carbon emissions and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the past 140 years is “essentially zero”.

He also looked at three other hurricane characteristics, namely intensity, number and duration:

Here he summarizes that there is “no significant trends in the intensity, number and duration of hurricanes in the North Atlantic over the past 140 years”.

The physical scientist also cites a recent 2017 paper to summarize that long-term hurricane activity in the North Atlantic is “best explained by zonal trade wind speed over Caribbean Sea & tropical Atlantic, not CO2“.

Photo Nikolov above: Twitter.

 

Polar Bear Expert’s Book Goes Global As Demand Grows For Science De-Indoctrination

No doubt today there’s a huge demand for science de-indoctrination – especially among children – in a variety of fields, ranging from nutrition, climate science, economics and even eugenics (still!).

Government corruption of the sciences is as old as civilization itself. It will never go away and so the best we can hope for is to keep fighting it as best we can. The most powerful and most feared weapon of course is the truth.

Professional zoologist and polar bear expert Dr. Susan Crockford’s book for children, Polar Bears – Facts and Myths, makes a valuable contribution to this effort. For almost a decade the polar bear has been used by climate alarmists as the poster child for spreading fear over a melting Arctic and species extinction.

Although the book is targeted at children age 7 to 10, many adults and political leaders could also learn a lot and profit from it.

The ideal Christmas present: Dr. Susan J. Crockford’s book is now available in both French and German. Image of German book cropped from Amazon.

Facts only, “without appeal to emotion”

The book is a real eye-opener as it dispels 8 common myths surrounding polar bears. Little wonder the book is a real threat to the junk-science purveyors and indoctrinators at our nations’ schools. The book will certainly encourage children to think critically and to question some of the science orthodoxy we see in climate. The parents of kids who bring this book to school should not be surprised if they get a letter from administrators.

What compelled Crockford to write this children’s book? The Canadian zoologist had seen more politicization of polar bear science than she could take, she wrote in an e-mail. Over the last two years Crockford has given talks about polar bears to many school children. “The kids and their teachers have all been astonished to learn how many polar bears still exist in the world as of 2015: they have all been led to believe that perhaps only a few hundred bears now survive,” Crockford said.

“I felt it was important to produce a book for this age group, and their teachers and parents, that presents the science about polar bears and declining Arctic sea ice without an appeal to emotion,” she wrote.

The book has since been translated into the French and the German and is readily available at Amazon. With the Christmas season approaching, what better present to give a child or global warming alarmist?

Susan Crockford is a professional zoologist who has studied polar bear ecology and evolution for more than 20 years. She also runs the blog about polar bears called www.polarbearscience.com.

Order the book at Amazon:
Polar Bears – Facts and Myths
Eisbären – Fakten und Mythen
Ours Polaire Faits et Mythes

Another New Paper Dismantles The CO2 Greenhouse Effect ‘Thought Experiment’

3 Atmospheric Scientists: Greenhouse Effect

Based On ‘Physically Irrelevant Assumptions’

 Dr. Gerhard Kramm                                                    Dr. Nicole Mölders

Yet another new scientific paper has been published that questions the current understanding of the Earth’s globally averaged surface temperature and its relation to the theoretical greenhouse effect.

Perhaps the most fundamental equation in climate science is the “thought experiment” that envisions what the temperature of the Earth would be if it had no atmosphere (or greenhouse gases).

Simplistically, the globally averaged surface temperature is assumed to be 288 K.   In the “thought experiment”, an imaginary Earth that has no atmosphere (or greenhouse gases to absorb and re-emit the surface heat) would have a temperature of 255 K.  The difference between the real and imagined Earth with no atmosphere is 33 K, meaning that the Earth would be much colder (and uninhabitable) without the presence of greenhouse gases.  Of that 33 K, it is assumed that CO2 concentrations in range of 200 – 280 ppm (the pre-industrial ranges for the last 800,000 years) contribute 7.2 K (~20%), while water vapor concentrations (ranging between about 1,000 to 40,000 ppm for the globe) contribute 20.6 K to the 33 K greenhouse effect.


Dr. Gavin Schmidt, NASA

“The size of the greenhouse effect is often estimated as being the difference between the actual global surface temperature and the temperature the planet would be without any atmospheric absorption, but with exactly the same planetary albedo, around 33°C. This is more of a “thought experiment” than an observable state, but it is a useful baseline.”

Atmospheric scientists Dr. Gerhard Kramm, Dr. Ralph Dlugi, and Dr. Nicole Mölders have just published a paper in the journal Natural Science that exposes the physical and observational shortcomings of the widely-accepted 288 K – 255 K = 33 K greenhouse effect equation.   They conclude that this “though experiment” is “based on physically irrelevant assumptions and its results considerably disagree with observations“.

The scientists offer a new approach to gauging the Earth’s surface temperature(s), and their results are significantly at variance with the 288 K – 255 K = 33 K  “thought experiment”.  For their calculations, they use observational measurements for the moon — which actually does not have an atmosphere — as their “testbed”.   Using moon data would appear to yield more reliable results than an imaginary-world Earth with no atmosphere.

The following is a very abbreviated summary of these scientists’ conclusions about calculating Earth’s mean temperatures.


Kramm et al., 2017

The planetary radiation balance plays a prominent role in quantifying the effect of the terrestrial atmosphere (spuriously called the atmospheric greenhouse effect). Based on this planetary radiation balance, the effective radiation temperature of the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere of Te ≅ 255 K is estimated. This temperature value is subtracted from the globally averaged near-surface temperature of about ⟨Tns⟩ ≅ 288 K resulting in ⟨Tns⟩ − Te ≅ 33 K. This temperature difference commonly serves to quantify the atmospheric effect. The temperature difference is said to be bridged by optically active gaseous gases, namely H2O (20.6 K); CO2 (7.2 K); N2O (1.4 K);CH4 (0.8 K); O3 (2.4 K); NH3+freons+NO2+CCl4+O2+N2NH3+freons+NO2+CCl4+O2+N2 (0.8 K) (e.g. Kondratyev and Moskalenko, 1984).
Since the “thought experiment” of an Earth in the absence of its atmosphere does not allow any rigorous assessment of such results, we considered the Moon as a testbed for the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere.  […] Based on our findings, we may conclude that the effective radiation temperature yields flawed results when used for quantifying the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect.  The results of our prediction of the slab (or skin) temperature of the Moon exhibit that drastically different temperature distributions are possible even if the global energy budget is identical. These different temperature distributions yield different globally averaged slab temperatures. […] These [“drastically different temperature distributions” using the same global energy budget parameters, described in detail in the paper] values demonstrate that the power law of Stefan and Boltzmann provides inappropriate results when applied to globally averaged skin temperatures.
It is well known from physics that the mean temperature of a system is the mean of the size-weighted temperatures of its sub-systems. Temperature is an intensive quantity. It is not conserved. On the contrary, energy is an extensive quantity. Energies are additive and governed by a conservation law. Thus, one has to conclude that concept of the effective radiation temperature oversimplifies the physical processes as it ignores the impact of local temperatures on the fluxes in the planetary radiative balance.

Instead of focusing on the technicalities of these authors’ Earth-temperature calculations using moon data, it’s important to call attention to the 5-point critique of the 288 K – 255 K = 33 K greenhouse effect equation outlined in the introduction to the Kramm et al. (2017) paper.   The very first criticism listed is, by itself, worth expounding upon in detail.   Here it is:

(1) “Only a planetary radiation budget of the Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is considered, i.e., any heat storage in the oceans (if at all existing in such a case) and land masses is neglected.”

This is crucial.  Not only is the heating contribution of the water vapor-and-CO2 greenhouse effect viewed as a “thought experiment” because it uses an imaginary world without an atmosphere as its premise,  the 288 K – 255 K = 33 K greenhouse effect equation only considers a radiation budget analysis that pertains to atmospheric heating, not ocean heating.  This is theoretical negligence, as it is tantamount to claiming that we should measure the temperature of a person’s spit to accurately determine his overall body temperature.

According to the IPCC (citing Levitus et al., 2012), 93% of the Earth’s heat energy resides in the oceans.  The atmosphere hosts just 1% of the Earth’s heat energy “trapped” by greenhouse gases.  To be physically meaningful, then, the Earth’s energy budget and “mean global temperature” should be calculated by featuring measurements for the thousands-of-meters-deep oceans, and not the atmosphere vs. no-atmosphere conceptualization

Furthermore, it is essential to consider that the heat flux for the Earth’s climate system nearly always goes from ocean to atmosphere, and not the other way around.   The atmosphere does not warm the oceans; the oceans warm the atmosphere.


Ellsaesser, 1984 :  “the atmosphere cannot warm until the oceans do
Murray et al., 2000 :  “…net surface heat flux is almost always from ocean to atmosphere
Minnett et al., 2011 :  …the heat flux is nearly always from the ocean to the atmosphere

And because the direction of the heat flux is from ocean to atmosphere, for greenhouse gases like water vapor and CO2 to warm the atmosphere by 33 K, they necessarily must heat the oceans by that equivalent first.   In other words, for the Earth’s theoretical greenhouse effect to “work”, downwelling longwave infrared radiation (LWIR) from water vapor and CO2 must be fundamental players in heating the Earth’s oceans to depths of thousands of meters.

An unheralded problem with this conceptualization arises:  We have no physical measurements from a real-world scientific experiment that identify how much, if at all, parts per million (0.000001) increases (or decreases) in atmospheric CO2 concentrations heat (or cool) water bodies.

Even the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) advocacy blogs RealClimate.org and SkepticalScience.com acknowledge that we have no real-world evidence identifying the extent to which heat changes occur in water bodies when CO2 concentrations are varied in volumes of +/-0.000001 above them.   We have to use proxy evidence from clouds instead.


RealClimate.org :  “Clearly it is not possible to alter the concentration of greenhouse gases in a controlled experiment at sea to study the response of the skin-layer. Instead we use the natural variations in clouds to modulate the incident infrared radiation at the sea surface.”
SkepticalScience.com :  “Obviously, it’s not possible to manipulate the concentration of CO2 in the air to carry out real world experiments, but natural changes in cloud cover provide an opportunity to test the principle [that CO2 heats water].”

And the problem with using clouds as a proxy for CO2 is that even very small (1%) cloud cover variations can quite easily overwhelm and supersede the greenhouse effect associated with changes in CO2 concentrations due to the magnitude and dominance of cloud LWIR forcing.


Ramanathan et al. (1989)The greenhouse effect of clouds may be larger than that resulting from a hundredfold increase in the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere.”
RealClimate.org :    “Of course the range of net infrared forcing caused by changing cloud conditions (~100 W/m2) is much greater than that caused by increasing levels of greenhouse gases (e.g. doubling pre-industrial CO2 levels will increase the net forcing by ~4 W/m2)”

Using clouds as a proxy for CO2 in assessing how CO2 concentration changes affect water temperatures is therefore not comparing apples to apples in calculating their radiative significance, and thus any experimental results using clouds can not be generalized or assumed to simulate the heating effects of CO2 when varied over water bodies.

So we are left with an equation (288 K – 255 K = 33 K) that (a) is based upon a “thought experiment” using an imaginary world without an atmosphere; (b) claims to measure Earth’s temperatures, but doesn’t consider the temperatures of the Earth’s oceans as its primary parameter; and (c) assumes ppm changes in CO2 concentrations heat or cool water bodies to a measurable degree when raised or lowered even though no physical measurements from a real-world scientific experiment exists to support such a claim.

And this is just point (1) in the Kramm et al. (2017) critique of the 288 K – 255 K = 33 K greenhouse effect equation.   Four other criticisms of the “inadequate” equation are also listed below.

As these three atmospheric scientists conclude, the 288 K – 255 K = 33 K equation underlying the theoretical greenhouse effect “lacks adequate physical meaning as do any contributions from optically active gaseous components calculated thereby“. 


Kramm et al. (2017) critical analysis of the 288 K  – 255 K = 33 K greenhouse effect “thought experiment” (here referred to as Equation 1.4):

Kramm et al., 2017

(1) Only a planetary radiation budget of the Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is considered, i.e., any heat storage in the oceans (if at all existing in such a case) and land masses is neglected.
(2) The assumption of a uniform surface temperature for the entire globe is rather inadequate. As shown by Kramm and Dlugi (2010), this assumption is required by the application of the power law of Stefan (1879) and Boltzmann (1884) because this power law is determined by (a) integrating Planck (1901) blackbody radiation law, for instance, over all wavelengths ranging from zero to infinity, and (b) integrating the isotropic emission of radiant energy by a small spot of the surface into the adjacent half space (e.g., Liou, 2002, Kramm and Molders, 2009). These physical and mathematical reasons do not justify applying the Stefan-Boltzmann power law to a statistical quantity like Tns [globally averaged near surface temperature]. Even in the real situation of an Earth with atmosphere, (near-)surface temperatures vary notably from the equator to the poles owing to the varying solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere and from daytime to nighttime. Consequently, the assumption of a uniform surface temperature is inadequate. Our Moon, for instance, nearly satisfies the requirements of a planet without atmosphere. It has a non-uniform surface temperature distribution with strong variation from lunar day to lunar night, and from its equator to its poles (e.g., Cremers et al., 1971, Vasavada et al., 2012). Furthermore, ignoring heat storage would yield a Moon surface temperature during lunar night of 0 K (or 2.7 K, the temperature of the space).
(3) The choice of the planetary albedo of αE=0.30 is rather inadequate. This value is based on satellite observations. Hence, it contains not only the albedo of the Earth’s surface, but also the back scattering of solar radiation by molecules (Rayleigh scattering), cloud and aerosol particles (Lorenz-Mie scattering). Budyko (1977) already stated that in the absence of an atmosphere the planetary albedo cannot be equal to the actual value of α0.33 (at that time [1977], but today αE=0.30). He assumed that prior to the origin of the atmosphere, the Earth’s albedo was lower and probably differed very little from the Moon’s albedo, which is equal to αM=0.07 (at that time [1977], but today αM=0.12). A planetary surface albedo of the Earth of about αE=0.07 is also suggested by the results of Trenberth et al., 2009. Thus, assuming a planetary albedo of αE=0.07 and a planetary emissivity of εM=1εM=1 (black body) in Equation (1.4) yields T≅ 273.6K.   For αE=0.12 and εM=1εM=1 , one obtains: Te  ≅ 270K.  Haltiner and Martin (1957) explained the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect by the difference between the Moon’s surface temperature at radiative equilibrium and the globally averaged near-surface temperature of the Earth. They argued that the mean surface temperature of the Moon must satisfy the condition of radiative equilibrium so that T≅ 266K.
(4) Comparing Te [Earth’s temperature without an atmosphere] with Tns [Earth’s globally averaged near surface temperature] is rather inappropriate because the meaning of these temperatures is quite different. The former is based on an energy-flux budget at the surface even though it is physically inconsistent because of the non-uniform temperature distribution on the globe. Whereas the latter is related to globally averaging near-surface temperature observations made at meteorological stations (supported by satellite observations).
(5) The Moon’s mean disk temperature of about 213 K retrieved at 2.77 cm wavelength by Monstein (2001) is much lower than T≅ 270which can be derived with the Moon’s planetary albedo of α0.12. Even though the Moon’s mean disk temperature observed in 1948 by Piddington and Minnett (1949) is about 26 K higher than that of Monstein (2001), it is still 31 K lower than T≅ 270K . Despite the Moon is nearly a perfect example of a planet without atmosphere, some authors argued that Equations (1.3) and (1.4) are only valid for fast-rotating planets so that the Moon must be excluded. Other authors, however, applied these equations for Venus that rotates a factor of four slower than the Moon. Pierrehumber (2011), for instance, used Equation (1.4) to calculate the temperature of the planetary radiative equilibrium for Venus. With αV=0.75α and ε1εV = 1 , he obtained T≅ 231K. Choosing α0.12α for the Venus in the absence of its atmosphere (which is similar to that of the Moon) yields Te317K and for α0.90 as listed in NASA’s Venus Fact Sheet T≅ 184K.
(Equation 1.4) is based on physically irrelevant assumptions and its results considerably disagree with observations. Consequently, the difference of ΔTa≅ 33K [the alleged planetary temperature difference with the greenhouse effect] lacks adequate physical meaning as do any contributions from optically active gaseous components calculated thereby.

Germany Shifts To The Right – May Mean Significant Slowdown For Country’s “Green Energies”

The German election results are coming in, and one thing is clear: Angela Merkel’s coalition government lost big. The preliminary figures show: (UPDATED Monday)

CDU/CSU center right – 33.0%
SPD socialist – 20.5
Left – 9.1
FDP free democrats – 10.7
Greens – 8.9
AfD hard right – 12.6 
Other – 5.0

Here we see that the German center-leftist parties (SPD socialists, Greens and Leftists) have seen their power erode further, pulling in a total of only 38.5%, while the more center-right oriented parties (Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, FDP Free Democrats and the hard right wing AfD) pulled in near 54.3%.

Four years ago in 2013 the result was far more balanced: 51% for the center/right side and 44.9% for the center/left parties, i.e. only a 6.1% margin.

The big winners are the business-friendly libertarian FDP Free Democrats and the right wing AfD.

The shift to the right means that the brakes are likely going to be put on the Energiewende and on efforts “to rescue the climate”. FDP leader Christian Lindner has been a vocal opponent to onshore wind park approvals in rural areas and forests and has also been critical of the subsidies paid out to green energies.

Though always ready to provide lip service on behalf of climate protection, the Paris Treaty and green energies, Angela Merkel has also softened her rhetoric against fossil fuels during the campaign. When looking at Merkel’s record on the environment, it speaks much greater volumes than her words do.

Germany has not cut back on greenhouse gas emissions in 7 years.

And even though she says she remains committed to greening up the country’s energy supply, Merkel clearly has shown to be content taking a middle way between green demands and the needs of the industry.

The latest election results will likely have Merkel taking an even more pragmatic, business-friendly approach.

AfD rises

Among the big winners of the election is the right wing, anti-immigration AfD party. During the campaign the AfD was committed to eliminating subsidies to wind and solar energy, and called for more support for fossil fuels and nuclear power.

Wind power has become a substantial issue among German environmentalists as a number of them opposed to wind-park construction have sided with the AfD.

The AfD is also the only party that has dared to challenge global warming science. The emerging AfD party is a sure sign of growing opposition to Germany’s Climate Religion. Expect tougher times for green projects in the upcoming legislative period.

Tough coalition talks ahead to form new government

Environmental policy in Germany over the next four years will of course depend on the make-up of Merkel’s next government. The question that remains: Which party is Merkel going to form a coalition government with?

A coalition between her party and the business friendly FDP falls short of a majority, so expect Merkel to court the SPD into forming yet another grand coalition government. But this time don’t expect the SPD to play along, as they’ve announced they’re no longer interested.

Coalition with the Greens

So Merkel is left to try to entice the Greens to join the coalition together with the FDP. Merkel would have no qualms working with the climate-alarmist, wide-open border Greens. She’d be absolutely content leaving the Environment Ministry under the control of the Greens and putting the business-friendly FDP in charge of the Economics Ministry and letting the 2 junior parties slug it out while appearing to be above the fray for the next 4 years. That’s how Merkel works.

It’s going to be tough. The Greens have said they will accept being a coalition partner only if the CDU agrees to end coal power by 2030, a condition that hopefully the FDP will refuse.

The CDU/CSU has already excluded any chance of forming a coalition with the AfD due to “extreme right wing tendencies“. Doing so would mean the end of the love-affair the media have with Merkel.

 

Germany Expected To Shift To The Right In Today’s National Elections, Green Energies To Take Back Seat

Later today I’ll be posting on the result of Germany’s national elections, once it starts coming in this evening.

Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian CDU/CSU (Union) is expected to win easily. But what the new government will look like remains totally open. The latest opinion poll shows:

Latest opinion polls show CDU/CSU (Union) in the lead. Source: https://bundestagswahl-2017.com/prognose/.

Personally I think the result will be a bit different from what the above prognosis shows. Here’s what I’m projecting:

CDU/CSU (Union): 36.4%
SPD (Socialists): 21.7%
FDP (Free Democrats): 10.4%
Greens: 7.3%
Linke (Leftists) 9.1%
AfD (Hard Right) 10.3%

Overall a rather substantial shift to the right (Union, AfD, FDP) is expected as concerns over immigration, cultural transformation, crime and uncertainty over Germany as an industrial base have swept across the working class.

Tougher times for green energies

Such a shift to the right compared to the last election will likely mean tougher times for those pushing environmental, clean energy and climate issues.

Opinion polls, it needs to be pointed out, have shown an usually large number of undecided voters still remaining, and so there’s plenty of room for surprises.

There’s been quite a hit of grumbling among German voters, and many may opt to express their discontent by secretly voting for the AfD. There’s potential of the party coming close to the 15% mark. Such a result would send shock waves across Europe, and force the established mainstream parties to do a quite a bit of rethinking.

More later today!

Rapid ENSO Prediction Reversal: ´Now Global-Cooling La Niña Is Forecast Ahead!

Making forecasts concerning weather and climate is not an easy task. There is really much we do not understand, though some like to make you think everything is all understood and settled.

This is why I get a kick out of people who claim they are able to predict decades into the future, yet have very little data about the oceans and their cycles, which play a huge role in climate, and can’t even predict the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO.

Nothing demonstrates the woeful lack of certainty regarding forecasting better than the ENSO  forecasts made this year.

Joe Bastardi here at Twitter showed the following 2 charts from the International Research Institute (IRI), where the first one shows the forecast made in April and the second one shows the forecast just made this month:

The forecast made in April 2017 above shows a powerful El Niño in the works, with equatorial Pacific surface temperatures at about 1°C above normal.

The second chart above shows the recent mid-September forecast, which is now completely opposite. It indicates a La Niña in the pipeline, which means early next year’s satellite sea surface temperatures will be cooled down and the overall global temperature trend will have been flat for some 2 decades.

In the following chart from Tropical Tidbits here presents what sea surface temperatures are at the moment:

Note the relatively frigid equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. According to the April forecast (first chart above) by the IRI, we were supposed to be in warm El Niño territory by now, some 1°C warmer.

Also note how much the recent hurricanes have cooled parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean. Still, there’s much contrasting warmth south of the Gulf of Mexico and like meteorologist Joe Bastardi says, the conditions and patterns continue to be ripe for more hurricane incubation.

Next we see the subsurface sea temperature anaomalies for the equatorial Pacific down to 300 meters depth:

Chart: NOAA.

Four months ago subsurface temperatures were much warmer, see page 12 here. Today the NOAA says there is an increasing chance (~55%-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.

So what can we draw from all this? Expect continued global cool down in the months ahead. At the same time, never exclude the possibility of surprises.

 

German ARD Meteorologist: “Can’t Blame Climate Change” For This Year’s Hurricanes… “Many Factors”

Last Tuesday morning German flagship ARD public television meteorologist Donald Bäcker surprised some climate-realist viewers here with a very level-headed look at the factors behind hurricane development.

I use the word “surprise” here because the massive German public media system are generally devout warmists and vigilant gatekeepers against skeptic views. Open discussion here means discussion only among adherents and the like-minded. Anyone with a dissident view usually is branded and excluded.

Before telling viewers the day’s forecast for Germany, Bäcker gave some background information on the current hurricane situation during the first 42 seconds of the clip.

 

German ARD public television meteorologist Donald Bäcker tells viewers many factors are behind hurricanes, and not just climate change. Image cropped from ARD moma here.

He begins the segment by reminding us that there is “still a large need regarding research on climate and weather“, adding:

We can of course make everything really easy and say the powerful hurricanes in the current season are caused by climate change. But you just can’t do that. With this you cannot explain the years 2008 – 2015, as during this period there were practically no strong hurricanes in the Caribbean region. It has to do with a number of factors, among them ocean currents are to blame, and you need triggering factors. These are the so-called easterlies.”

Bäcker then explained how this year all the factors are in place and the conditions for producing hurricanes are “optimal”. A refreshingly non-dogmatic analysis, and so hats off to the ARD in this one particular case.

Politics, or science?

Of course, it didn’t take long for an alarmist rebuttal to be made two days later. And what better person to provide it than a “scientist” from the ultra-alarmist, politically activist Potsdam Institute for Climate Research: Manfred Stock.

A visibly desperate Stock tells viewers that man is mostly responsible for the terrible hurricanes and insists that the PIK scientists have the data to show it. Stock warns that we are at a crossroads (again) and that unless we change our ways quickly and drastically, we are going to see a catastrophe.

Stock added that hurricanes have become worse since 1980. But here he failed to explain the lack of hurricanes in the Caribbean from 2008 – 2015 mentioned by Bäcker and the overall downward trend of the past 100 years.

When it comes to hurricanes, and number of other climate and weather issues, the PIK alarmists have a very pronounced habit of forgetting things and misleading the public.

Stefan Rahmstorf’s amnesia (or fraud?)

For example just days ago Stefan Rahmstorf of the PIK claimed that this year’s spate of hurricanes were “unprecedented” – a statement I had a hard time believing. So I asked hurricane expert Philipp Klotzbach at Twitter about this. He replied:

The PIK seems to have a big problem with data selection and processing. Moreover, it’s always either we have to drastically change how we live, and quickly, or we will see planetary disaster. It’s the old playbook used by charlatans again and again throughout the history of civilization.

 

New Paper: ‘Extremely High’ TSI, El Niño Episodes Since 1970s Exert ‘Robust Control Over Himalayan Glaciers’

Scientists Rebuke Claims Of Human

Control Over Glacier Mass Balance

“Natural climate variability still emerges as the key deciding element governing the Himalayan glacier mass balances.” – Shekhar et al., 2017


Yet another new paper has challenged to IPCC-endorsed conclusion that the Himalayan glaciers are melting rapidly due to anthropogenic climate change, and that these glaciers will very likely “disappear” by 2035.

The claim that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035 was included in the 4th IPCC report (2007) not for scientific reasons, but to put political pressure on world leaders.

However, a 2014 comprehensive analysis of over 2,000 glaciers in the region indicated that 88% of Himalayan glaciers are stable or advancing, with overall negligible change (0.2%) since 2000.

Prior to this apparent 21st century “pause” in Himalayan glacier melt, a substantial glacier retreat occurred between the 1970s and 1990s for the region.   There were also decadal-scale periods of severe glacier melt during the 1600s and 1700s (Little Ice Age), when atmospheric CO2 levels were significantly lower (~275 ppm) than they are now.  The amplitude of the glacier retreat during the 17th and 18th centuries sometimes even exceeded the melt rates achieved during the last few decades (Shekhar et al., 2017).

According to a new paper published in the Nature journal Scientific Reports entitled “Himalayan Glaciers Experienced Significant Mass Loss During Later Phases Of Little Ice Age“, the high/low temperatures and melt rates achieved during the Little Ice Age were determined by varying magnitudes of solar activity and El Niño episodes.   After the 1970s, Himalayan glacier melt and temperature changes were only “partly” influenced by human activity, but they were primarily driven by solar activity variations (the Modern Grand Maximum) and natural oceanic heat oscillations internal to the Earth’s climate system (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO]).

The authors conclude that there is a “robust natural climatic control over the Himalayan glaciers“, even for recent decades.  This conclusion contradicts the IPCC’s contention that Himalayan glacier melt is controlled by human activity.

The Himalayan glaciers will not be “disappearing” by 2035.


Shekhar et al., 2017

Half  Of The World’s Non-Polar Glaciers (Himalayas) Were Already Melting During 1600s, 1700s

[T]he Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) harbors ~50% (by area) of all the glaciers outside of the polar regions. … Our research is the maiden attempt to reconstruct the longest regional scale glacier mass balance records for the Western Himalaya based on tree-ring sampling at an unprecedented scale. Another highlight of our study is that it presents valid evidence of the significant mass loss experienced by the Himalayan glaciers even during the LIA [1500-1850].
[W]e believe that the episodes of significantly negative mass balances … were the result of an enhanced El Niño affecting the ISM [Indian Summer Monsoon] and increasing the temperatures … [and] a more direct relationship between the high TSI and more negative mass balances during the LIA in the years with potentially weaker El Niño.

‘Extremely High’ TSI, El Niño Since 1970s Resulted In ‘Severe Glacial Mass Loss’

In the case of the Himalaya, the […] phase of rising regional temperatures, and the start of the strong solar cycles that in later years (since the 1970s), started showing substantial coupling with strong El Niño episodes.  [M]ass balance periodicities of 9–12 years during ~1970–1990 [are] a representation of the response to a few of the strongest consecutive solar cycles in past 400 years. In fact, we see that ~50% of the years since 1970 experienced an exceptionally high TSI of >1361 W m−2, ~40% of which also underwent warm phases of ENSO.
Although, the study acknowledges the contributions of anthropogenic drivers of climate change in the Himalayan region, it also highlights a strong effect from the increased yearly concurrence of extremely high TSI with El Niño in the past five decades, resulting in severe glacial mass loss.

Natural Variability, With TSI And ENSO, NAO, AMO As Drivers, Control Glacier Mass Balance

Although external anthropogenic forcing can partly control the glacial regime in the Himalaya, the natural climate variability still emerges as the key deciding element governing the Himalayan glacier mass balances. Similar to several other studies for the region, our study also identifies ENSO, NAO, and AMO as the primary drivers of the regional mass balance variability. The fact that the past few decades have experienced intensified episodes of NAO, closely correlating with rising temperature, also suggests a robust natural climatic control over the Himalayan glaciers.

Jose And Maria Frustrate Global Warming Ambulance Chasers, Media And Warmunistas

UPDATE 3: But NOAA keeps moving track further out to sea…

UPDATE 2: Joe Bastardi says Maria not hitting US “not a done deal”.

UPDATE 1: NOOOOOO! F?§#! …NOAA updates latest storm track…takes Maria even further out to sea…
========================================

A few days ago it looked as if the US coast could be hit by two large hurricanes: New England by Jose, and later the Southeast by Maria. Global warming activists and the haters of our modern industrial society were salivating.

For example on September 17, the Washington Post presented one model with Maria barreling straight into North Carolina.

After all, imagine all the wonderful media headlines proclaiming “unprecedented destruction and hurricane forces“. It would be a wonderful field day. With such destruction, how could Denier in Chief President Donald Trump possibly be able to dispute that man is the cause? The witch hunt for and purge of deniers could begin in earnest.

Wild 1933 hurricane year

Yet, reality shows us that hurricanes have always been just as violent and occurred just as often in the past, if not more often. For example, Ryan Maue here reminds us of the fury of 1933 season:

In that year, Maue tweeted, saw 15 of 20 storms hitting land “with 6 majors and 2 Cat 5’s“. Imagine if that were to happen today. This type of destruction is precisely what the global warming ambulance chasing media and fake scientists are hoping for today. so it is only natural that some days ago Jose and Maria showed signs those glory days maybe returning – possibly the chance of two hurricanes hitting the US at once!

But now the most recent computer models show that Jose is in its death throes, stuck off the coast of New England, crumbling and no longer posing any serious danger. At Twitter the outstanding wxcharts here shows the latest tracks for Maria and Jose:

A storm that protects us?

At the top of the graphic above we see the remnants of Jose. Ironically hurricane Jose, which alarmists had hoped would smash violently into the Northeast, is turning out to be a possible savior in that it could play a key role in deflecting powerful Maria away from land. Just imagine: A global warming produced hurricanes that protect us!

As the chart above shows, Maria is projected to head out to sea, thus allowing us to be more hopeful. Yet it is still too early call off the alarms. There’s still some chance that Maria could veer off the model projected course and make landfall. Readers living on the East Coast must remain vigilant. Thankfully, most computation see the storm tracking out to sea.

Today at his Daily Update, Joe Bastardi cautions us and points out that Maria still has a considerable window to make landfall around North Carolina. Hurricane forecasts beyond 5 days Harbour tremendous uncertainty.

NOAA also has Maria headed out to sea with its latest cone:

Maria projected to head out to sea. Source: NOAA.

The profiteers of bad news

The media and climate ambulance chasers of course will deny that they are becoming disappointed by the latest tracks, and that people couldn’t be so mean as to wish deadly storms to strike land. But it’s not so. Much of the mainstream media are terrible people who are agenda-driven. They deceive their readers and try to manipulate public perception with fear. They make their livings with bad news. Bad news for them is good news. How often do you ever see them write about good news? How often do we see them present things on their bright side? They’re just nasty people.

But there is some good news out there for the media, climate ambulance chasers and mass destruction fantasists: the hurricane season still has a long way to go, and so they can hope for new hurricanes. It still remains an ideal year for hurricanes.

 

NOAA Models Project Harsh 2017/18 European Winter…Possibly Coldest This Century

Weather and climate analyst Schneefan here writes that the 2017/18 winter in Europe could be one of the coldest of the last 20 years.

In mid September NOAA’s CFSv2 weather model once again crunched out a cold temperatures across Europe for all three winter months (December (left), January (center), February (right)) for the coming 2017/18 winter:

Meteociel/CFS prognosis dated 1 September 2017 for the temperature deviation from the long-term mean at 850 hPa (approx. 1500 m) in Europe for the 2017/18 winter. Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php

Schneefan writes one has to go back to the 1990s to find a negative 2.0°C deviation from the 1961-1990 mean that is projected for Germany. That deviation translates to almost 3°C when compared to the 1981-2010 mean. That would would be awfully cold.

The following chart shows the winter temperature anomalies for Germany for each year since 1901:

If projections come true, Germany would face one of its coldest winters in the last 50 years. Source: http://www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?6,3260663,3260663#msg-3260663

The latest CSFv2 model run confirms the earlier cold projections that have been calculated since mid June, 2017.

Cooler than normal autumn

Projections for this fall (September, October, November) are also on the cool side. An analysis from 17 September shows that Central Europe will see temperatures that are about 1°C below the 1981-2010 mean. So far the first three weeks have been right on the money.

Schneefan warns that it’s still too early to rely on the latest trend and to bank on it, but adds: “If these cold projections for the 2017/18 winter keep appearing in the next model runs this fall, then the probability increases.”

Also Schneefan writes that we should not expect any general warming trend soon after the coming winter, due to the lowest solar activity is 200 years, the cooling La Niña that is beginning to take hold, and the already falling temperatures taking place in the wake of the 2015/15 El-Niño.

There are other signs that change is possibly in the works:

After the ice mass growth in Greenland for the first time in the current century and a new record cold July temperature (-33°C) set in Greenland, no one should be surprised that the 2017/18 winter will be the coldest in Europe and other parts of the northern hemisphere this century.

And to potentially make matters worse, the Bali volcano Agung is now at warning level “orange”. The last eruption was in 1963 with a VEI of 5!. So rapidly could global climate unexpectedly and naturally change.

Readers need to note that the projections involve considerable uncertainty, and the winter of course may develop completely differently. Yet, many meteorologists had projected earlier this year a severe hurricane season this year based on oceanic patterns, and that has come true.

 

New Papers: Seismic Activity Explains 1979-2016 Temperatures, ENSO Events Better Than CO2

Could Earth’s Shifting Plates

Be Driving Modern Climate?

Within the last year, Dr. Arthur Viterito (geography professor) has published multiple scientific papers documenting the significant correlation (r=0.80) between the seismic activity changes in the Earth’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA) and both El Niño events and global temperatures.

The HGFA/global temperature correlation has been found to be stronger than the correlation for CO2 concentration changes (r=0.74) for recent decades (1979-2016).

Other recent research has provided further support for the significant influence of seismic activity (i.e., there is a very high correlation [r=0.935] between geothermal flux and North Magnetic Dip Pole movement).

These robust and well-documented seismic activity associations have led Dr. Viterito to call for a reconsideration of the paradigm that says variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations drive changes in global temperatures.


Viterito, 2016


Viterito, 2017

The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming (CSARGW) demonstrated that increasing seismic activity in the globe’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA) is strongly correlated with global temperatures (r=0.785) from 1979-2015. The mechanism driving this correlation is amply documented and well understood by oceanographers and seismologists.

Namely, increased seismic activity in the HGFA (i.e., the mid-ocean’s spreading zones) serves as a proxy indicator of higher geothermal flux in these regions. The HGFA include the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the East Pacific Rise, the West Chile Rise, the Ridges of the Indian Ocean, and the Ridges of the Antarctic/Southern Ocean. This additional mid-ocean heating causes an acceleration of oceanic overturning and thermobaric convection, resulting in higher ocean temperatures and greater heat transport into the Arctic. This manifests itself as an anomaly known as the “Arctic Amplification,” where the Arctic warms to a much greater degree than the rest of the globe.

As illustrated in CSARGW, jumps in HGFA seismic activity can amplify an El Niño event, a phenomenon referred to as a SIENA or a Seismically Induced El Niño Amplification.  Accurately predicting two of these amplified El Niños (i.e., the 2015/2016 event plus the1997/1998 episode) is an important outcome of the HGFA seismicity/temperature relationship.

Applying the same methodology employed in CSARGW, an updated analysis through 2016 adds new knowledge of this important relationship while strengthening support for that study’s conclusions. The correlation between HGFA seismic frequency and global temperatures moved higher with the addition of the 2016 data: the revised correlation now reads 0.814, up from 0.785 for the analysis through 2015. This yields a coefficient of determination of .662, indicating that HGFA [high geothermal flux area] seismicity accounts for roughly two-thirds of the variation in global temperatures since 1979.


Viterito, 2017

[T]he idea that increased flux of oceanic geothermal heat (as indicated by increased seismic activity in these areas) can significantly alter temperature counters the hypothesis that increasing carbon dioxide has been the primary driver of recent global temperature change. Despite the general “non-acceptance” of this hypothesis, a recent study by Williams (2016) links a seemingly unrelated geophysical phenomenon to mid-ocean seismicity; thus a new paradigm may be emerging from this important association. Specifically, Williams shows that the speed at which the North Magnetic Dip Pole (NMDP) moves is highly correlated (r=0.935) with mid-ocean seismic activity.

More importantly, multiple regression analysis corroborates the findings of the previous studies: mid-ocean seismic activity is significantly correlated (p<0.05) with changing temperatures.

However, CO2 concentrations, along with NMDP [North Magnetic Dip Pole] displacements, do not explain a significant percentage of the total variance (p>0.05) when they are included and must be dropped from the analysis. This high degree of multicollinearity is a prominent finding.

However, it is important to note that, despite high correlations, CO2 increases cannot be causing an intensification of mid-ocean seismic activity nor can higher CO2 concentrations be driving the acceleration of the NMDP [North Magnetic Dip Pole]. There is simply no plausible mechanism that can be invoked here.

Clearly, there is far more in play than is currently accounted for in our understanding of earth’s climate. The shifting of plates, along with the concurrent shifts of earth’s NMDP, should spur the geophysical community to create a new and enduring paradigm that links these phenomena to changing global temperatures.

Climate Change, Natural Disasters Disappear From Ranking Of Germans’ Top 3 Fears!

Fear of natural catastrophes among German citizens has dwindled over the past 10 years. Back in 2007, just on the heels of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth – the peak of the global warming scare – natural catastrophes took second place among the ranking of top fears for Germans.

Today ten years later in 2017 natural catastrophes are not even in the top three according to German ARD public television, which cited a study by R+V Insurances:

No automatic alt text available.

Chart source: R + V Versicherungen, via ARD German television screenshot.

Ranking in the top three are 1) terrorism, 2) political extremism and 3) tensions concerning the influx of foreigners.

South German SWR public broadcasting here cites the R + V study and writes that this year 56% of those surveyed said they feared “natural catastrophes”, putting that factor in fourth place in the ranking. A variety of other social and economic issues followed closely behind.

The ranking of fears is strongly linked to what issue happens to be dominating the news cycle at the time surveys are conducted. Coverage of climate and natural disasters comes and goes in cycles, and at times disappears for weeks or months from the German media radar.

Recently the Atlantic hurricane season was the top stories in the news, and so a survey done last week would have reflected a greater fear of natural disasters. But once the hurricane season dies out later this fall and the La Nina-induced fall of global temperatures starts to happen, the media of course will go to other bad news to feature.

Made-up news: Ice-free Arctic!

This year there has not been any record ice melt, and global temperatures have in fact begun to ease off. There really isn’t much left out there to report. And when facts aren’t there, some even make them up. For example just before its prime time 8 p.m. news, meteorologist Karsten Schwanke of flagship ARD German television announced on 15 September 2017 that the northeast and northwest passages of the Arctic were ice-free, which is a flat out lie:

No ice-free Arctic passages this year, according to the National Snow and Ice data Center (NSIDC). See details here.

Little wonder that most Germans harbour irrational fears of climate change.

Fear a function of media coverage, not observation

German fear of climate and natural disasters is not really related to real world observations made by citizens, but largely depends on media coverage. When media cover it, or make it up, they get afraid. When they don’t cover it, the fear disappears.

Obviously there’s risk involved in the media featuring climate and natural disasters constantly, namely people would simply tune it out. So the German media instead focusses only the major natural disasters, always trying not to overdo it but to keep it at a level that keeps the fear alive.

Keeping fear at high levels is a very tough and challenging job, especially when reports of growing doom don’t match real life observations, or when the reports are organized propaganda.

 

Analysis By German Scientists Concerning Hurricane Causes: More Propaganda Than Science

In the wake of Category 5 hurricanes Irma and Harvey, Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt presented an analysis of what’s behind the hurricane activity and literature at their well known Die kalte Sonne climate website. Their hope is to bring the hurricane discussion back to some rationality.

The German media of course have been covering the story quite intensely, and at times hysterically. The general tenor of most statements: Hurricanes are not directly caused by climate change, however their power and destructiveness is increasing due to global warming.

The claim is that warmer oceans are providing the fuel to produce larger hurricanes.

As plausible as the theory may sound, Vahrenholt and Lüning decided to investigate the category 4 and 5 hurricanes and plotted their frequency over the past 100 years:

Fig. 4: The number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes between 1924 and 2016

There were quite a number of hurricanes in the 1930s and 1950s, as well as in the 2000s, but the trend has been sharply downward since 2010, despite the warming, and so considerable doubt swirls surrounding all the claims heard in the media.

No correlation found between man and hurricanes

Vahrenholt and Lüning looked at some scientific literature on hurricanes. For example a 2014 paper by Holland et al attempted to show man’s impact on hurricanes. Unfortunately the authors went back only to 1975, and produced the following plot:

Fig. 5: The dependency of the share of Cat.4-5 storms on modelled temperature rises (ACCI) in different oceans, green represents the Atlantic region, red is for the Indian Ocean, and blue for the Pacific. Source: Fig. 5b from Holland et.al (2014).

Even using the data from the carefully selected 1975 to 2011 period does not produce any significant trend, Vahrenholt and Lüning note. Moreover the two German analysts say Holland relied on too few data points coming from the Indian ocean and falsely applied them to claim a “global” trend.

Using the great number of typhoons in the Pacific for the carefully chosen period yielded absolutely no correlation (R² = 0.03). Vahrenholt and Lüning add:

Adding in earlier data also leads to a collapse in correlation for the Atlantic, as the paper only sees a man-made share first starting in 1960. Here the a carefully selected period was sought out and found.”

Decadal variability in hurricane energy and the literature shows an influence by the AMO. A paper Kevin J.E. Walsh of the University of Melbourne tells us just how difficult it is to get understand hurricane strength:

However, the Atlantic basin is noted for having significant multidecadal variability in TC (Tropic Cyclons, d.A.) activity levels. The basin was characterized by a more active period from the mid-1870s to the late 1890s as well as the mid-1940s to the late 1960s. These periods may have had levels of activity similar to what has been observed since the mid-1990s.”

No evidence of a link

“Using the trends from the 1975…2011 period to infer a powerful anthropogenic impact of the recent powerful Atlantic events in light of what we know, borders on sheer audacity,” Lüning and Vahrenholt write. “Apparently the claimed evident relationship between man-made climate change and strengthening hurricanes is not supported.”

Hurricanes driven by Passat winds

Vahrenholt and Lüning cite a new paper  to explain what impacts the energy of a hurricane. Mark A. Saunders of Great Britain and the USA diligently examined observations going back to 1878 and discovered a factor that describes the energy of a hurricane very well: the strength of the northern Passat winds.

Fig 6: Correlation (r, blue) and its significance (p<0.1 is highly significant, red) on the hurricanes energy (ACE), -solid blue curve – and its number -dotted blue curve – with the Passat winds. Source: Fig. 3a from Saunders et.al (2017).

Driven by temperature differences between regions

A second related factor improves the correlation further: The temperature difference between the Main Developing Region (MDR) located within 10° – 20°N and 85°W – 20°W and the global tropical area within 10°S to 10°N. It is long known that hurricane development during times of El Nino is dampened and during La Nina it is enhanced, thus it has to do much more with natural oceanic variability.

Figure 8 below depicts the difference in sea surface temperature (SST) between the main developing region (MDR) and the tropics using observations ERSSTv5, with 10-year smoothing applied.

Fig. 8: The black line is not the horizontal axis, rather its is the linear trend! One observes the AMO similar pattern.

Lüning and Vahrenholt also cite literature showing that the Passat winds will not increase with climate change, but rather indicate a decrease in hurricanes.

All science that seriously looks at hurricanes show no worsening of hurricanes being caused by climate change.”

And what about the thermodynamics of greater evaporation leading to more hurricane energy? A report by Friederike Otto of Oxford finds that there are many possible interactions involved in this highly complex weather phenomenon:

Dynamical factors and thermodynamic aspects of climate change can interact in complex ways and there are many examples where the circulation is as important as the thermodynamics.”

Otto also points out that the climate models are far from adequate:

But in practice this requires climate models that are able to reliably simulate the weather systems in questions over and over again to assess the likelihood of its occurrence.”

Some media outlets have responsibly pointed out that the problems and destruction caused by hurricanes have much more to do with people living in hurricane vulnerable areas.

Sea level rise not a real factor in hurricane flooding

The claim that rising sea levels (10 cm since 1960) caused by global warming is major factor in hurricane destruction is also a non-factor in view of the fact that hurricanes generate waves that are 6 meters high!

Big driver: SST difference between MDR and tropics

In summary, the real hurricane driver of hurricanes is the SST difference between the MDR region and the global tropics. The following graph tells us why current hurricane activity is so high.

Fig. 9: The current sea surface temperature difference between the MDR and the global tropical oceans, source: Tropical Tidbits.

People living in hurricane vulnerable areas need to hope that the curve soon returns to zero. Here and with the bPassat winds doe we find the real reasons for the terrible hurricanes.  Every thing else is propaganda on behalf of a “good cause”

 

As La Nina Looms, Warmists Skid Into Panic Mode…Global Warming Pause Set To Surpass Two Decades!

At this point last year global warming alarmists and global socialism politicians were as giddy and as optimistic as ever. Everything was falling into place as it looked as if nothing would prevent them from imposing their green regime. The Pope was on their side, global temperatures had been near record highs (thanks to an El Nino event) , and Hillary Clinton would surely go on to become President of the USA.

Warmist agenda now getting torpedoed

With Clinton at the helm, the US would wholeheartedly commit to Paris and to strict decarbonization. Never did the green dream look so promising. But then came the mother of torpedoes, President Donald Trump.

And now there’s yet another torpedo about to slam into the already badly damaged warmunista ship: a rapidly approaching La Nina. In the wake of last year’s El Nino event, global temperatures had already been falling. A La Nina will only cause the globe to cool further. This is surprising because just months ago experts had predicted El Nino conditions to return.

La Nina powers in

The global warming alarmists are in sheer desperation and panic, as made evident by their hysterically shrill reactions to the recent hurricanes. The latest forecast shows a return to La Nina conditions (and a global cool-down).

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml

The above chart shows La Nina conditions expected to persist into spring, 2018. This cooling will make itsself evident in satellite data with a lag of about 6 months. This means global temperature will fall even further next year, which means the warming pause will go beyond 20 years.

Note the intensifying La Nina conditions forecast for the end of the here in the following NCEP chart for the rest of the year:

 

This oncoming La Nina development led meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue to comment on Twitter:

Not only La Nina is serving to cool global surface temperatures, but so are the powerful hurricanes as well. Yesterday at the Weatherbell Daily Update, Joe Bastardi showed the effects of hurricanes Irma and Jose on sea surface temperature (SST).

Note the band of cool water through the Caribbean and a substantially cooled down Gulf of Mexico. Just a week ago reports abounded on how the waters there surface had been “bathwater warm”. So quickly can weather change. True, there remains considerable amounts of heat at the ocean surfaces.

Frigid winter projected for Europe

The recent winter projection for Europe issued by Meteociel below shows Europe possiby being gripped by a frigid winter. If the prognosis holds, it could be one of the coldest in years:

Meteociel/CFS prognosis from 30 August 2017,  850 hPa temperature deviation from the mean (about 1500m) in Europe for the 2017/18 winter. For Europe very icy conditions are expected (from left to right: December, January, February). Source: www.meteociel.fr/php

Arctic sea ice rebound

Also the Arctic has shown recovery over the past years. This year’s Arctic sea ice for mid September is about a full 1 million sq. km. over the record low set 5 years ago.

Overall Arctic sea ice has remained stable for the past 10 years, surprising global warming scientists. Source: National Snow and Ice Data center (NSIDC).