Double Hypocrisy: Climate Crusader/Pro-Obamacare George Clooney Takes Private Jet To Germany – For Healthcare!

Here’s some double-barrel hypocrisy, again straight out of Hollywood.


Photo by: Nicolas Genin, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.

Last week big Obamacare booster and anti-CO2 activist George Clooney took his private jet all the way from Las Angeles across the US, Canada, and the Atlantic, before finally landing in Germany…to seek medical help for his chronic back problems. Apparently Obamacare and America’s best physicians are unable to take care of it.

Much of the German media have been reporting on Mr. Clooney’s visit to a clinic in Solingen last Friday, see video here.

Spiegel writes:

The actor had himself examined last Friday by the Neurosurgery Department of the Städtischen Klinikums Solingen, so confirmed clinic director Hermann-Josef Bökmann, according to the DPA news agency.”

I guess Obamacare and the US medical system aren’t good enough for the ailing actor.

And how does the environmentally conscious Clooney justify burning tonnes of jet fuel and spewing greenhouse gases directly into upper troposphere (where it supposedly really hurts the climate)? Well damn it, my back hurts! And Obamacare is for the simple folks, anyway.

The media also report that this month Clooney will be taking his jet to Italy to get married. For that event Hollywood stars Ben Affleck, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon will also be flying in on private jet(s), also spewing more tonnes of greenhouse gas into the upper troposphere on the carbon account of Mr. Clooney.

Spiegel writes here that last Friday’s examination took “several hours” and looked into his chronic back problems/pain stemming from an accident he suffered while filming “Syriana. Spiegel also adds Clooney had admitted to alcohol problems, and taking pain-killers to keep the back pain bearable.

Searching for that 1 non-consensus doctor?

So why did he really fly by private jet all the way to Europe for private care? I’d guess he’s decided not to take the advice of 99% of the doctors at home, who have likely advised him that the needed treatment is (risky) back surgery involving who knows what.

This is not really the kind of medicine anyone likes to swallow, especially when you know the treatment could seriously alter lifestyle. Yet, let’s recall how Clooney once spoke to the public on following doctors’ advice and that of activist climate scientists:

If you have 99 percent of doctors who tell you ‘you are sick’ and 1 percent that says ‘you’re fine,’ you probably want to hang out with, check it up for the 99. You know what I mean?”

Obviously George is searching the corners of the globe, in his private jet, for that 1 doctor who doesn’t agree with the other 99, climate protection and medical consensus be damned. Do as I say, not as I do. Skepticism for me, but not for you.


2014: The Year Arctic Meltdown Stories Completely Vanished From Our Media!

Two years ago at about this time of year the media were overflowing at the brim with apocalyptic stories of high-speed Arctic meltdown. Everywhere the media used words like “dramatic”, catastrophic”, “accelerated”, “tipping point” and so on.

Except for the story of an overall long-term trend claimed by one paper from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) claiming a long-term accelerated ice melt at both poles, the media have been eerily silent on news about sea ice extent in the Arctic.

Right now the media silence is so deafening that you can hear a pin drop on the Arctic ice.

This year so far has indeed been a bad year for weather catastrophes. The pickings have gotten awfully meager for the alarmists and the media, who have had to content themselves with hyper-inflating anecdotal weather events to keep the climate scare living, albeit in a coma.

Tornadoes have been well below normal, cold temperatures have prevailed over many populated areas this summer, hurricanes have been scarce (not even a tropical storm on the globe today), Antarctica is at near record high sea ice levels, global temperatures stagnant almost two decades now…and now even the Arctic has moved into the skeptic column. Nothing is going the way the alarmists had projected years ago.

That’s why we’re getting phony weather forecasts for year 2050. There’s nothing else!

Arctic may have already reached low point – 2 weeks early

Some charts are showing that the Arctic sea ice may have already reached its low point in late August…more than two weeks early:

Arctic_2014 Sept 1


The chart above shows this year’s late summer extent could be higher than half a dozen other years on the recent record. So it’s no wonder that the climate catastrophe-cheerleaders in the media have been dead silent on the Arctic this year. Nowhere in the German media are there  catastrophic, dramatic Arctic meltdown stories announcing the tipping of the climate system. All gone this year.

For that we will have to wait until next year, perhaps. Or maybe the year after, or maybe when the missing heat comes out of hiding – a time that no climate model is able to tell us so far.


Renewable-Energy-Critical AfD Party Powers Into Saxony Parliament…”Shocking” Pollsters, Establishment (Again)

Update 01/09/2014 19:18 CET: The opinion poll presented at the Plenum link below just seems to be too wrong. To me it appears to be a national poll, and not of Saxony. The Plenum story does not specify exactly the region the poll was taken.

Germany’s version of the UKIP Party in the UK is the so-called Alternativ für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany), or AfD Party.

The AfD party has been very critical of euro, green-energies, and mega bailouts. Some its members have expressed doubts on climate science. Disenchanted voters view the AfD as the alternative to what they see as entrenched arrogance that has long pervaded over the other established parties; CDU, SPD, Greens, Links (Communist), and FDP.

Yesterday state elections were held in the German eastern state of Saxony with results showing the AfD party taking in 10% of the vote. The unexpectedly high result for the AfD took many pollsters by surprise.

Final result:
CDU (conservatives) 39.4%
SPD (socialists): 12.4%
Links (communists): 18.9%
Greens: 5.7%
AfD (alternative): 9.7%

Just a week before yesterday’s election, some opinion surveys by polling institutes were showing the AfD struggling to reach the 5% hurdle, which is necessary for a party to take seats in parliament.

For example on August 20 a survey commissioned by Stern-RTL showed the AfD barely at the critical 5% mark, the SPD social democrats all the way at 24%, and the German environmentalist Greens even at 10%. The Plenum site actually does not specify exactly the region the poll was taken – only mentioning that it was done in the run-up to the Saxony election. The figures seem to reflect the national sentiment.

The online Fulda info here presents the results of a national survey by renowned polling institute Emnid conducted about 10 days ago, commissioned by flagship daily Bild am Sonntag. It showed the AfD as a marginal party at only 4%!

Needless to say, the media reaction was one of shock and awe, and indicates that both the established parties and media do not have their finger on the pulse of public sentiment. The opinion survey seem to more reflect the wishes of the establishment, and not the reality.

Repeated, widespread campaigns had been launched by the established parties and the media in attempt to portray the critical AfD as a fringe, right-wing party. The 10% result shows, however, that the attempts failed and that the AfD voters think very little of the shenanigans.

In the Saxony elections the newly minted AfD soared past a number of parties and picked up 10% of the vote, surprising pollsters and the sending a sharp signal to the established parties that the days of political consensus on major issues such as the euro, the role of the EU, mega-bailouts, and renewable energy may be coming to an end.

With war breaking out to the east and south of Europe, the European economy struggling, energy prices spiraling out of control, citizens are demanding that their wishes be taken seriously.


Europe’s Wintry 2014 August…Sees “One Of The Chilliest In Decades”…Forecasts Of Snow!

The preliminary numbers for August’s weather are coming in from some countries. For western Europe the picture is becoming clear: August was cold and wet, with strong notes of winter.

Germany: 1.5°C cooler than normal, snow

Germany’s Deutsche Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) reports that August in Germany, at a mean temperature of 16.0°C, was 0.5°C colder than the mean of the international 1961-1990 reference period. Compared to the 1981-2010 reference period, August 2014 was 1.5°C colder than normal. It was Germany’s coldest August in 8 years.  The summerlike temperatures at the start of the month faded as the month progressed and the weather turned autumn-like, especially the last third of the month. The result in total was a cooler, wetter and less sunny August.

The Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) collects and evaluates data from 2000 measurement stations scattered across the country. On August 24 it even snowed 4 cm on Germany’s highest peak Zugspitze (Read here).

Overall the data show that Germany’s annual mean temperatures have been dropping over the last 17 years (a period, some scientists say, that is necessary before one can speak of a climate trend):

Temperature germany 17 years

Germany’s mean annual temperature plot over the last 17 years. Source: EIKE

As Germany cools, one has to ask how much longer the DWD intends to keep misleading the public with its logo at its website, which depicts an accelerating warming. When asked about the reality-remote logo, the DWD said they would consider the matter when it revamps its website in the future. They didn’t seem too concerned about possibly misleading the public (also read here).

Also Germany’s long-term summertime precipitation trends show absolute normalcy, see Grafik 4 at EIKE.

Austria: “1.1 °C colder than climatological mean”

Austria’s national ZAMG weather service also is reporting a cold and dark August: 19% less sunshine, the 14th least sunny August since sunshine measurements started in 1884. In Austria it also was much cooler than normal, posting an anomaly of -1.1°C.

Like Germany, Austria also saw its coldest August since 2006. Austria also had forecasts of snow already in mid August.

UK: “…one of the chilliest in decades”!

Not only Central Europe saw a cold August, but so did the United Kingdom. Once again the once-predicted global warming-caused barbecue summers remain elusive.

The UK Met Office here announced that the UK’s mean August temperature came in at 13.8°C , or 1.1°C below the long-term average. That would make it the coolest August since 1993. Also the UK’s Daily Mail writes of an August charcterised by forecaasts of snow that included warnings of the “coldest August spell in a century“.

The Weather Channel (TWC) earlier this month was calling August in Great Britain and Europe “one of the chilliest in decades“.

Also even last winter’s snow refused to melt. The online SCOTSMAN writes (my emphasis):

RECORD numbers of snow patches have remained on Scottish mountains this year despite warm summer temperatures and the impact of global warming, a new survey has revealed.

The annual study, carried out every August by a team of volunteers and published by the Royal Meteorological Society, showed nearly 300 remnants of last winter’s snowfall have failed to melt.

This is the highest number since a Scottish national snow survey began seven years ago, and a dramatic increase on the 24 to 81 patches recorded in previous seasons.”


German Expert: “Climate Models Have Developed A Life Of Their Own”…”Artificial Factors, Endless Parameterizations”….”

Media scientist Sebastian Vehlken: climate models have developed a life of their own, where hard measured data only disrupt
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Media scientist Dr. Sebastian Vehlken works on the theory and history of computer simulation, and studies crowd research and super-computing. In the radio show “Voices of the Sciences” he made very critical statements on computer models’ capability to make prognoses. Quentin Quencher put up a part of the interview at vimeo. In a blog posting at Glitzerwasser, Quencher sorted out an interesting part:

[Vehlken in interview]:

Computer simulations are not necessarily based on sound data that I then project. Here there is always the difference: projections are not prognoses. When I’m dealing with the future with respect to computer simulations, it’s always about generating projections, scenarios – which are always in plural. They are not the future in the system. Here, for example, we can look at climatology.

Recently there was a presentation at our institute. It was about, okay, the claim about climate models is always: ‘Your database isn’t broad enough.’ And then the scientist who made the presentation told us: ‘On one hand the simulators tells that the models run very well, and then we put in data from some sensor in Antarctica…and suddenly it just doesn’t fit.’  Why doesn’t it fit in? Often it’s because the sensor was defective, or the measured data are simply faulty. And so that means I often have systems that are hardly able to produce reliable data.

Yet, I need, so to say, models. And in the meantime, with 20 -30 years of climate research that are simulation-based, the models have become so complex that they have in a sense developed a life of their own – and sometimes measured data simply just disrupt them. In the models there at times assumptions that simply cannot be physically validated. That is they have articifical factors, parameterizations without end. For these there are no empirical databases for them. There is…a complex system..and then there is experimentation with this complex system, which is what my climate model is. And then one sees, okay, when I implement this parameter, which I don’t even know whether or not it really exists.”

In the comments that follows the blog article a friend of models comments and attempts to convince Quencher of their supposedly great use for them. Very amusing. Read for yourself.


At his Glitzerwasser site here, Quencher sums up what Vehlken says above:

In short, the models, especially the climate models, may be good tools but for making prognoses they are not worth anything, and the projections are fraught with so much uncertainty that they absolutely should not be used as a basis for making policy decisions.”

Flashback: Prof. Christopher Essex


“WORLD WAR III Has Broken Out” Shrill German Climate Conference Declares…Enemy Man “Against Nature”

This week the 6th Klimawoche (Climate Week) has been taking place in the German northern port city of Hamburg. The aim of the Climate Week Conference is to urge Germans to accelerate the implementation of green energies in order to curb the rapidly approaching dangerous climate warming. It is viewed as a “communication” event.

Hat-tip: The alarmist

For those organizing and participating in the conference, the science has long been settled and the planet is certainly on a dangerous, accelerated path to destruction by the end of the century, that is unless man drastically alters his way of life.

The conference was opened at a Christian mass last Sunday by renowned journalist Franz Alt. In his opening remarks Alt made the shrill declaration:

We are in the middle of a Third World War against nature.”

Alt: The sun and wind don’t send bills

Earlier this year in an interview Alt aimed sharp criticism at the German government for dragging its feet with the implementation of renewable energies. In the interview Alt appeared completely unaware of extreme renewable energy costs that German consumers have had to endure so far, even reiterating the slogan: “Wind and sun don’t send bills“.

He also asked why Germany’s Economics Minister, Sigmar Gabriel, kept talking about the problems and costs involved with renewable energy: “Why doesn’t he speak about the advantages?

Alt also said he cannot understand why Germany imports 100 billion euros worth of oil and gas from the Middles East and from Putin’s Russia instead of investing that money in renewable energy at home, once again reiterating, “The sun and wind don’t send electric bills“.

Sun’s always shining, wind always blowing!

Alt is also convinced fossil fuel energies are dinosaurs that are right on the verge of running out, and that the future is wind and sun: “The sun is always shining! The wind is always blowing!

The week-long Hamburg Climate Week event features education events for schoolchildren, and workshops on sustainable living and climate friendly nutrition. Also scheduled to appear at the conference were climate scientists Mojib Latif, Hartmut Graßl and Claudia Schmitt.


World’s Poor Reject Half Modern, Half Primitive (Green) Life…Demand “Real Electricity”, Not “Fake” Greenpeace Solar!

Bihar IndiaThe world’s poor are refusing to be denied affordable, reliable fossil energy – like the rest of the developed world enjoys.

According to a new new peer-reviewed paper, during the last decade the world added more coal power than any decade before. A lion’s share of that increase was in developing countries, who understandably want to pull themselves out of agonizing poverty. This should be good news.

However, the opulent elite classes on the planet, which include jet-setting billionaires and Hollywood stars, are having a tough time accepting this and view it as a worrisome development. They expect the world’s underclasses to forego the blessings of cheap energy that they themselves enjoy profusely.

Fortunately the poor are flatly rejecting their demands and are refusing to return to dirt huts. They’ve waited long enough. The poor now know electric power can be produced very cheaply, is plentiful and is there for the taking, and they are now demanding unhindered access to it. Little wonder more coal power came online over the last decade in developing countries. And little wonder much more will be coming online over the next 10 years.

A recent story at the online India Today poignantly illustrates how the world’s poor are refusing to forego fossil fuel generated electricity: Bihar village clamours for real electricity.

The article describes how a village in India had been without electrical power for more than 30 years, and longed to get back on the grid. Greenpeace decided to use the village as an example to the world to showcase how communities can do just fine on renewable energy. Greenpeace India set up a “solar-powered micro-grid” to power the village and it was paraded before the media as a success. The whole world should follow Bihar’s example, Greenpeace and renewable energy activists bellowed. The project reaped lots of praise from the global elitists, and probably won lots of awards. There, you see! That’s how it’s done!

Greenpeace India describes the project as follows:

The solar powered micro-grid is a comprehensive, first of its kind enterprise that provides electricity to more than 400 households and 50 commercial establishments. This includes 70 kW for electricity generation and 30 kW for 10 solar powered water pumping systems of three horsepower each. The 100 kW micro-grid also takes care of 60 street lights, energy requirements of two schools, one health centre, one Kisan Training Centre and 50 commercial establishments.”

However, the story does not have a happy ending. There’s only one (huge) problem: The citizens of Bihar aren’t happy with part-time modernity. India Today writes:

The residents of Dharnai are far from satisfied to see lights for the first time in 33 years, courtesy a solar-powered micro-grid set up by the environment watchdog Greenpeace India.”

The India Today article goes on to describe how Bihar citizens “want asli bijli (real electricity) from the government” and that village youngsters were carrying placards demanding “real source of energy“, and “not the fake solar powered” one.

It’s obvious: Who needs the lights in the daytime? Lights are needed at night. The problem with the Greenpeace solar micro-grid is that you can’t power the lights at night. And what good is a fridge or freezer when it can be powered only 8 hours a day? Why should a developing country settled for part-time modernity when you can have it full time, and at a price that is less than half of the part-time “fake” energy? How can you run a factory or a hospital when the power is absent 14 hours a day?

Under pressure to quell the people’s anger over having a half solution thrust upon them, and being expected to just shut up and accept it, the government “eventually promised the villagers that ‘real electricity’ would be provided to them shortly.”

India Today writes that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has “instructed senior officials of the energy department to look into their demand for the real stuff“.

The world’s poor want asli bijli, and they aren’t going to settle for less. Hat-tip: Alex Epstein at Twitter.

Chart above:  CC BY-SA 3.0 (via Wikipedia)


Senior Meteorologist Demolishes, Mocks Alfred Wegener Institute Claims Of “Unprecedented Antarctica Ice Loss”

UPDATE: Klaus-Eckart Puls’s rebuttal is also confirmed by MIT. When observations clash with runaway assumptions…

Puls, K.E.  EIKE

Veteran German meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls. Photo: EIKE

Antarctic Melt Alarm by the AWI …at -93°C!
By EIKE meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

On August 10, 2010, a new record cold was measured in Antarctica [1]: -93.2°C. Thus the previous record of -89.2°C set at the Vostok Research Station on 21 July 1983 was smashed by 4°C. The annual mean temperature in Antarctica at ice sheet at elevations of 2000 to over 4000 metres range from -30 to -50°C, and the trend is downward [2]. Now the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) has announced in a press release [3]: “A record retreat in the ice sheets“. Can ice sheets melt at such record low temperatures? Has the AWI discovered some new physical law?

In the AWI release the following amazing thing can be read:

Researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, have for the first time extensively mapped Greenland’s and Antarctica’s ice sheets with the help of the ESA satellite CryoSat-2 and have thus been able to prove that the ice sheets of both regions are momentarily declining at an unprecedented rate.”

These ice sheets mainly located in Greenland and Antarctica and are mostly around 3000 meters thick. On the Greenland ice sheet the annual mean temperatures are about -20°C, and -40°C in Antarctica. Antarctica is a huge polar continent, and Greenland is an island (peninsula) with a latitude range of 10°- 30° from the Pole and borders on the Arctic ocean. This is one explanation for the considerable temperature and climate differences. While Greenland has marginally lost ice during the summer over the last 20 years, the change in ice volume in Antarctica is very much in dispute [4] and hardly measureable with the needed accuracy (Fig. 1).

Figure 1  Trends in ice ice mass [5].

Only a small part of Antarctica has lost mass

Contrary to the claims made by the AWI, there are also satellite evaluations concluding that there has been a positive ice mass gain in Antarctica (Fig. 2):

Figure 2  Antarctic ice growth. [6]

Interesting in the release are the AWI claims about the “somewhat hidden” limitations for Antarctica:

The rate of loss for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has tripled for the same time period


The scientists observed the most rapid elevation changes…at the Pine-Island-Glacier in Western Antarctica.”


But: while the glaciers in Western Antarctica and on the Antarctic peninsula are shrinking, the ice sheet of Eastern Antarctica grew– however at such a minimal amount that the growth was unable to compensate for the loss on the other side of the continent.”

Firstly, here once again the Antarctic Peninsula and Western Antarctica – where the Pine Island Glacier is located – are being used as the poster child for the dramatic ice loss and for climate change. Unfortunately it has long been known that the ice calving and the melting there are related meteorological reasons: cyclic changes in the West-Wind-Drift (storms) and with associated sea currents [7]. The result: Almost the entire Antarctic continent has gotten colder over the past 30 years. The only exception is the Antarctic Peninsula.

West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula melt due to cycles

This is because the Antarctic Peninsula in located in the west wind zone of the southern hemisphere. This southern hemisphere wind belt is subject to stochastic cyclic atmospheric pressure variations, as is the case with all other global wind systems. This is analogous to the northern hemispheric North Atlantic Oscillation NAO). In the southern hemisphere it is known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO).

At the site “Wetter-Lexikon” (Weather Dictionary) [8] it is defined as:

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is the fluctuation of the atmospheric pressure between the 40° south and 65° south latitudes. That means that this oscillation is defined by atmospheric pressure difference over the South Pole and the South Tropical regions. The strength of the AAO has an impact on the wind regime at the middle and upper latitudes of the southern hemisphere. The AAO influences the climate over a large part of the southern hemisphere, for example Antarctica, Australia, and the southern parts of South America.

The AAO index is computed from the atmospheric pressure differences. When the AAO is negative, then the cold high predominates over Antarctica. The polar east winds blow strongly around the South Pole. …. In the positive phase the west current shifts southwards so that more rain than normal falls in the southern part of South America and in Australia. Moreover mild air can reach down to the Antarctic coast.”

This means the Antarctic Peninsula can be affected!

This peninsula, including the South Shetland Island, is located in the west between 60°-75°S, and thus in the much feared cyclone zone of the Roaring Forties and Shrieking Sixties.

see caption

Figure 3: Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). [10]

Before about 1980 there was a dominance of meridional weather patterns, a time when zonal weather patterns predominated. That meant a strengthening of the westwind circulation and thus storm activity. At the same time milder air from the Pacific was led to the Antarctic Peninsula. Thus storms with mild air were led from the Pacific and resulted in ice meting processes. Moreover, higher waves mechanically broke up the ice. Here in recent times was the ice break at the Wilkins Ice Shelf at the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula [9]. The causes are meteorological and have nothing to do with a “climate catastrophe”.

When it comes to climate, the Antarctic Peninsula is only 1% of the Antarctic area.

So where is the accelerated sea level rise?

Despite all the uncertainties mentioned above, the AWI still comes to the following result:

When one calculates both together, the volume of both ice sheets is shrinking by 500 cubic kilometers per year.”

This of course would have to lead to an acceleration in sea level rise which one could observe. However, there has been no detected sea level rise acceleration! A very thorough overview of the latest peer-review publications [11] in fact reaches the opposite result:

Numerous evaluations of coastal tide gauges over 200 years as well as the gravity measurements of the GRACE satellite deliver again and again a sea level rise of about 1.6 mm/yr. … Here…the trends are in agreement: The sea level rise has been linear for at least the last 100 years; there is no acceleration in sea level rise. A signal indicating man-made CO2 (AGW) is nowhere to be seen. This stands in stark contradiction to the claims and especially the alarmist prognoses of the IPCC and some climate institutes.”

Two other facts on ice that were glossed over (avoided?) in the AWI press release:

1. In Antarctica there is a “100-year record” maximum sea ice extent [12]:

The sea ice around Antarctica has steadily increased since satellite measurements began in 1979 and in June, 2014, (peak of the Antarctic winter) reached a new record with respect to total area.”

2. At its current condition, the Arctic sea ice will reach its low late-summer peak in September, and will be well above the minima of the last years:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Figure 4 [13]

AWI’s own Antarctic station has measured a cooling trend

Finally, in a release [14], the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) also itself announced a 30-year cooling trend at its Neumayer-Station (70°S). According to the definition of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this is a climate trend. The AWI wrote:

The meteorological observatory at the Neumayer-Station III is an official climate observation station of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Ocean Research…has been measuring daily the air temperature in Antarctica for 30 years.”

The AWI published the result in a chart with a linear regression trend (Fig. 5):


Figure 5: Temperature cooling trend at the NEUMAYER Station [14].

However the formulation used by the AWI to describe that cooling trend is quite peculiar (deceptive?):

A result of the long-term research: At the Neumayer-Station it has not gotten warmer over the last three decades.”

Indeed not! It has in fact gotten colder there. Why did they use the blurred formulation “not warmer” when the scientific finding on this AWI dataset is clear? Also at the Neumayer-Station there is an Antarctic climate trend showing cooling.

Most of Antarctica is cooling – not warming as the AWI implies

There are even more peculiar AWI formulations:

This development however is a regional change and the measurements from the Neumayer-Station III do not in any way represent the global climate changes.”

Here the question that comes to mind is: What is that supposed to be about?

Who could ever get the idea that a regional or a local temperature trend would allow conclusions to be drawn for global trends? Or should nobody get the idea that global warming” is not even global?

There are also other peculiarities in the AWI release:

Only at the center of Antarctica has it not gotten warmer.”

The Neumayer-Station (with its cooling trend) is located at 70°S, i.e. far away from the “centerof Antarctica. There it has gotten colder. Moreover the measurements and facts presented here and provided in the footnotes below contradict what the AWI is claiming: “Only in the center of Antarctica has it not gotten warmer“.

With the excption of the Antarctic Peninsula (<1% of the Antarctic area) there is a cooling trend in Antarctica and it also includes the surrounding sea ice [15]:

Both the UAH and the RSS datasets [16] show that the temperature surrounding Antarctica has slipped a few tenths of a degree Celsius 0.1°C from 1979 to today. The temperature anomaly in both datasets has dropped below zero, i.e. below the long-term reference mean value.” 


Measurements in Antarctica show a secular cooling trend. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula and a part of West Antarctica (approx. 1% of the Antarctic area). In 2010 a new all-time record cold was measured: -93.2°C. The sea ice floating around Antarctica reached “100-year record” daily highs in 2014. With these observations, how anyone could conclude there has been a record ice sheet retreat” [3]  remains a secret of the AWI.


[1]  10 Dec 2013

[2] trend-in-der-antarktis/ 24 Dec 2012

[3] www.awi._maps/  20 August 2014

[4] 12 October 2012 and September 10, 2012

[5]  (1)  6 July 2014

       (2)  10 July 2014

[6]  12 October 2012

[7] 24 Jan 2012

[8] Wetter-Lexikon;

[9] Eisberg voraus, and:


[11]  (a)  8 July 2014

(b)  14 July 2014

(c)  11 July 2014

(d) 9 July 2014

[12] 2 July 2014


[14] Meteorologisches Observatorium wird Klimabeobachtungsstation – 30 Jahre Temperatur-Messungen an der Antarktis-Forschungsstation Neumayer, 12 January 2012:

[15]  Die Temperatur im Bereich des antarktischen Meereisgürtels sinkt und die Meereis-Ausdehnung  wächst”, 11 November 2008;

[16] Anm.: UAH = University of Alabama in Huntsville; RSS = Remote Sensing Systems


Nils-Axel Mörner Calls Global Warming “A Large-Scale Hysteria”…Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion “Not Surprising”

Renowned Swedish sea level expert and climatologist Nils-Axel Mörner also responded by e-mail on the Antarctic sea ice expansion.

Moerner_The Mind RenewedHere’s his view:

The Antarctic sea ice and sea surface temperature
Nils-Axel Mörner

Whilst there is a general hysteria of global warming, increasing temperature and rising sea level, new records from Antarctica indicate the opposite: a significant increase in the extent of sea ice over the last 30 years (in the order of 1 million square km) and a decrease in sea surface temperature south of Lat. 60°S (in the order of 0.4 °C).

Why is this?

First, the global warming hysteria is just what it is: a large-scale hysteria, which is primarily based on disinformation:

– The warming during the 20th century seems primarily driven by the Sun.
– There is negative evidence of CO2-driven process.
– The cooling over the last 17 years and 11 months is predominantly driven by the Sun.
– Sea level is by no means rising at an alarming rate.

Secondly, events taking place south of the Circum-Antarctic circulation belt are bound to be driven by other, often negatively correlated, effects than those recorded north of this belt:

– South of the Circum-Antarctic circulation belt ocean circulation and wind currents may generate climatic signals quite opposite to those in the north.
– An expansion of the sea ice over the last 30 years is not surprising.
– Nor is an increase in sea surface temperature of 0.4 °C since 2003 surprising.

But it all calls for an observationally based view of climate; in stead of a general hysteria.”


Photo source: The Mind Renewed (video very much worth hearing).



The Climate-Alarmism Centerfolds…Scientists Muster Most Frightened Looks For The Camera…”Emotional Manipulation”

The general public is realizing that the climate data are showing nothing to be alarmed about. Depending on data study one looks at, global temperatures have stagnated 18 years (have even fallen over the last 10 years), sea level rise is decelerating, and again we are beginning to experience winters like we saw in the 1960s. Climate is cyclic.

So if the data aren’t at all worrisome, then what can be done to convey the message of grave concern and worry to the public? The latest stunt concocted by the imaginative minds of climate hysterics is posing before a camera and to put on the most concerned look they could possibly muster. It’s a black-and-white photography series dubbed “Scared Scientists” by Nick Bowers. Read here.

Climate propaganda has reached Orwellian dimensions.

These scientists have cooperated with a professional photographer to handle this project. Lower the lights, turn your head bit to the right. Don’t blink! Be more tense…imagine your funding is about to be eliminated – yes, perfect! Exactly the photo we want!

Yes, this is exactly the kind of worry they wanted to capture on camera – to convey their fright and worry over man-made climate change.

Just like they are trying to do their best to feign a climate catastrophe with carefully selected and posed data, the climate-alarmism centerfold scientists are now doing their utmost to feign alarmism.

Even other alarmist science journalists are skeptical of the stunt. For example David Appell at his site writes:

It looks as fake as it is, and it also comes across as emotional manipulation. Probably we should be emotional about climate change, but come on, no one sits around all day looking worried, as if their checking account is low and the rent’s past due.”

Moreover he adds:

Look for this to be widely mocked. I can’t honestly blame anyone if they do.”

This is not something to mock. Rather it is something to be very concerned about. These scientists are no longer capable of doing objective scientific work. They’ve succumbed to their emotions and the results of their work will be potentially entirely contaminated and thus untrustworthy.


NOAA Data Show Southern Oceans Getting Colder…Contributing To Rapid South Polar Sea Ice Expansion

North Pole and South Pole Ice
By Ed Caryl

Why do the north and south polar regions seem to be opposites? Why is ice increasing around Antarctica, and decreasing in the Arctic Ocean?

The answer lies in the other ways that these two regions are opposites. At the South Pole lies a continent. The ice cap there lies over land, is up to two miles thick over rugged terrain, and can move (flow) only very, very, slowly, largely due to gravity. Only the sea ice can move rapidly, and that movement is at the whim of the wind.

At the North Pole, there is an ocean. There is (except for Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago) only sea ice, again moving at the whim of the wind. The difference is the large chunk of continental ice at the South Pole is surrounded by ocean, instead of (at the North Pole) a large ocean surrounded by land.

In order to visualize conditions, here is a diagram of the earth’s winds.


Figure 1 is a diagram of the winds and atmospheric cells over the earth. Source: NASA.

In general, there is rising air over the tropics, leading to low pressure, thunderstorms, and warm dry air moving north in the stratosphere to fall as high pressure at the “Horse Latitudes” over the northern and southern hemisphere deserts. This air then flows towards the equator and is turned toward the west by carioles force from the earth’s rotation, resulting in the trade winds. Tropical thunderstorms act as heat pumps, converting rising, warm, moist air into cool, dry air, allowing the heat to radiate to space at the top of the stratosphere, and the moisture to fall as rain. If there is more heat, there are more thunderstorms to get rid of it, and more moving air.

The falling air at the Horse Latitudes exchanges energy with the Mid-latitude cells, resulting in the mid-latitude westerlies, then, in turn, energy is traded to the Polar cells. This results in low pressure at the 60° north and south latitudes and high pressure at the poles. At the surface in each set of cells, heat is picked up from the surface and moved to the top of the atmosphere. At the top of the atmosphere in each set of cells, more heat is radiated to space. In the south, the mid-latitude cells are mostly over cold water and don’t pick up much heat. In the north, the mid-latitudes cells are more over land and pick up more heat. In the south, the Polar cell is over the high icecap, nearly in the stratosphere, and the polar high has very cold, dense, dry, air. In the north, the Polar cell is over ocean, the surface is at sea level, and the winds are still exchanging heat with the surface.

The result is, that as heat in the tropics increases, even slightly, the upper levels in these cells radiate more heat to space, the highs increase where colder air is falling, and the lows get lower where air is rising. At the South Pole, this results in lower temperatures and stronger winds at the surface. At the North Pole, because the ice is floating on Arctic Ocean, the winds tend to break up the ice, and more open water moderates the temperature. The higher the winds, the more the ice is broken up. The smaller ice area in the summer of 2012 was because a cyclone did an exceptional job breaking up the ice.

At the Antarctic coast, the increased wind and lower temperatures create more ice. The very cold winds blowing down hill off the continent blow the ice away from shore, creating polynyas. As the air is very cold, the open water immediately freezes, and the resulting slush (brash ice) is in turn blown into the downwind sea ice. As long as the wind is blowing, this is a continuous process. These polynyas are visible from space.


Figure 2 is a satellite view of the Antarctic coast and the mid-winter sea ice. The dark spots at the coast are wind-caused polynyas, open water where new sea ice is formed.

The outer edge of the sea ice is not where new ice is formed; it’s the inner edge. The outer edge is where the ice is melting. The outer edge is expanding in area because that part of the Southern Ocean is getting colder.


Figure 3 is the Southern Ocean sea surface temperature for latitudes south of 60°. Source NOAA, here.

If you look at absolute temperature, it is easy to see what is going on.


Figure 4 is the absolute sea surface temperature for the Southern Ocean south of 60°. The graph is from NOAA.

In Figure 4, note that since 2007, the Southern Ocean south of 60° South is now seldom above freezing. Saltwater freezes below -1.8°C, but ice does not melt until the sea surface is above 0°C.

To summarize, the polar winds are blowing harder because the tropics and temperate zones are warming. The southern ice is expanding because the winds are blowing harder and the Southern Ocean is cooling, again, probably because the winds are blowing harder. It is all part of the earth’s thermoregulatory system.


A Single Meteorologist Explains What $165 Billion In Government-Funded Climate Science Couldn’t

Large scale oceanic oscillations responsible for most of the post 1980 “warming”
By Joe Bastardi

I think global warming is a misnomer.

There is a distortion of the temperature pattern on the globe, brought about by the natural cyclical warming events of the warm PDO and warm AMO together. I spoke about this at Heartland a couple of years ago – how the sea ice increase in the south and the decrease in the north were the hidden message that here is no “warming” just a distortion.

When the tropical Atlantic and Pacific warm in tandem, there is a natural warming that takes place, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Pacific warming after both oceans being cold is a much more dramatic event, as it is the biggest ocean. The fact we have more land in the northern hemisphere and that the Arctic is surrounded by land means the summer seasons over the land masses can be hotter. Also the oceans in the north near North America are warmer. One can see this on the example of the warm PDO (left):

Bastardi 1

Modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, warm (left); cool (right. Source:

Notice the warmth near Alaska, yet the cool on the southern side of the globe near Antarctica. NOTICE THE TROPICS, THE NUMBER ONE SOURCE OF ENERGY TO DRIVE THE CLIMATE, are warm.  This adds more heat and moisture to the air, warming the atmosphere. It’s why we saw the rise in temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s.   In the cool version (right) the heat is where it had been cool earlier.  So the southern oceans around Antarctic are cool in a warm PDO, but warm in a cool PDO.

Look at the graphic of Antarctic ice below: it fits perfectly. At the start of the warm PDO around 1980, the ice was below normal, but the NATURAL cooling, compensating for warming in the tropics and north during the warm PDO, means the stage is set for the Antarctic ice increase:

Bastardi 2


Now look at a warm AMO example:

Bastardi 3

The Arctic’s exposure to the warm oceanic currents is much greater from the Atlantic side. This warm water moving toward the Arctic ocean obviously has a huge impact.

The deck is stacked to warm the northern hemisphere, jack up the global temps and shrink the Arctic ice. But at the start of the period, because the cold PDO and AMO together in the 1970s cooled the Arctic, the Arctic ice cap was way above normal.

Bastardi 4



Bingo, this is compensating cooling. So there is a cyclical distortion. The real key is measuring the water vapor, using temperatures is the wrong metric! Because without the amount of water vapor increasing, there can be no trapping. Co2 is 1/100th of the GHG and it’s likely that’s just about its influence on the entire shooting match of temps. It is estimated that the GHG blanket adds 33°C to the planet’s temperature. Co2 is boxed in at a range of 0.4 to 0.7 of that. It can do nothing because of all that is around it.

This explains perfectly the whole temperature pattern. Given the way we measure temperature, and the fact most of the warming has been in the Arctic in its cold season when there is little overall effect on the water vapor at such cold temperatures, it is highly likely that the subtle compensating cooling in the south over a much more moisture-laden atmosphere means there is no change in the true global temperature. What is happening now is that the atmosphere has adapted to the added warmth in the same way your shower room adapts to the turning on of a hot shower. So what happens when you turn off the shower (i.e. oceans flip their cycles)? It cools.

Bastardi 5

Notice the cooling in the Antarctic summer, limiting the ice melt season!

We are now in the period of “temperature leveling off”, where the atmosphere is readjusting from the previous increase in heat and moisture from the warmer cycles.

So here is the test we are in. I said in 2007 global temps would come down because of the shift in the PDO. Since 2005, its plain to see a slight downturn in a jagged fashion has started – just as I predicted 7 years ago:

Bastardi 6

The reason for the fewer, less intense El Ninos is because we are going back to the cycle of the colder PDO periods, plainly evident in the Multivariate Enso Index.

Bastardi 7

You can see the warm PDO and the major ENSO events that occurred when the globe warmed and the leveling off since then. Naturally, once the Atlantic flips, the global temps will return to where they were, as measured by satellite, at the start of the satellite era, which coincided with the START OF THE WARM PDO!

Its intuitive and natural…if you warm the tropical Pacific, you warm the temperature, but the compensating cooling is waiting in the longer term. That was my idea with the triple crown of climate back in 2007. The sun, the oceans, and stochastic events rule the climate.

So the test is on, and it doesn’t cost 165 billion dollars to justify an agenda (amount US has spent on climate change). It takes a working knowledge of where the climate has  gone in order to know where it is likely to go. Once the AMO flips to its cool phase, global temperatures will begin a descent much like the ascent we witnessed back in the 80s and 90s, which got us to our current plateau.

The Arctic is already showing, with the lack of ice melt this summer, what it will do once the AMO flips for good (in 5-10 years). It will recover. The global temperature will drop, but it will not be a drop representing a coming ice age or true cooling, just the cycle swinging back the other way. Meanwhile the Antarctic cap will retreat, eventually to levels seen in the 1970s and early 1980s.

If the southern ice cap does not shrink, then that will be a problem, but I have confidence it will.

When you are right, there are reasons. And when you are wrong there are often excuses, which is what you see from the people today who label the very people who said there is climate change (naturally) and made the correct forecast, as Deniers. The real danger to the globe is not global warming, it’s the global warming agenda. In a way, that is what the increase in the Antarctic ice cap shows you.

See Joe explain it here at the Saturday Summary.


Dramatic Antarctic Freeze Up…Iciest Decade Ever On Satellite Record…Every Decade Icier Than The Previous!

Nowhere have records been falling faster than in Antarctica. And what is shocking is that these records are all tied to cooling – and not warming.

Antarctica has been setting new maximum sea ice records almost daily, and never has Antarctic sea ice been so high for so long since satellite measurements began some 35 years ago. Sea ice anomaly has averaged over 1 million square kilometers for over one year.


Figure 1: Antarctic sea ice anomaly. The mean of the past three decades has been rising for 30 years. Approximate mean bars added by author. Source:

Almost daily observers of southern hemispheric sea ice have been hearing of a new record for ice extent for the date. The overall trend is not something that can be regarded as a recent anomaliy attributed to natural weather-like variability. Rather it really has to do with multidecadal trends that are unrelated to manmade CO2 emissions.

Iciest Antarctic decade ever

Figure 1 above shows how each south polar decade is icier than the one before. There is only one reason for this: There is less and less heat down there to prevent ice from forming, which seems to squarely contradict claims of a warming that is global.

In total the global (Arctic and Antarctic combined) sea ice mean for the last one and half years has been above the long-term mean. Scientists are scrambling to find out what has gone wrong with their model calculations. It wasn’t supposed to be so.

Figure 1 also shows how Antarctic sea ice has remained steadfastly above normal for more than two and half years, something that has never happened since satellite measurements began. Moreover, Anthony Watts here writes: “We are now on day 1001 of positive anomaly based on the 1979-2008 baseline.” Scientists who have long claimed the globe is warming are baffled and a few are even so shocked that they are denying it altogether.

The year of daily sea ice records

2014 for Antarctica has been especially icy. Figure 2 below shows how 2014 daily sea ice extent, depicted by the bold red curve, has been setting new record daily highs for the last 5 months.

Antarctic sea ice 2014

Figure 2: Sea ice extent for 2014 depicted by red curve. Source: sunshinehours.

Not only has the sea ice area expanded at the South Pole but so has volume, this according to Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute last October. In a German language press release the Bremerhaven-based AWI concluded that “from various studies the total volume of the Antarctic sea ice has grown over the last years.”

Record low temperatures

Not only record sea ice extent and volume are telling us that Antractica is cooling dramatically, but so are the thermometers. For example last year the National Geographic reported here that NASA had recorded the coldest temperature ever on the Antarctica continent: -136°F. Also the University of Wisconsin, Madison reported that the South Pole Station saw a new record low temperature of -73.8°C (-100.8°F) on June 11, 2012, breaking the previous minimum temperature record of -73.3°C (-99.9°F) set in 1966.

Just weeks ago CFACT reported that the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) saw a record cold of -55.4°C.

In 2010 the Neumayer III station, operated by Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute, recorded the lowest temperature at their Antarctic location in their 29 years of operation. The mercury dropped to -50.2°C.

Antarctic freeze-up still being denied

Some global-warming-hypothesizing scientists are finding it difficult to cope with the reality of growing sea ice at the South Pole, some even insisting that it is shrinking, or that the expansion is a sign of warming and that the trend will reverse later in the future. But other experts (skeptics) think these scientists are being naive to think that a trace gas could control the entire global climate system. The climate system, they say, is far too complex and many other more potent factors are really at play. And so these experts aren’t at all surprised by what is going on.

Willie Soon, Professor of astrophysics and geosciences at the Solar and Stellar Physics (SSP) Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, says, “The South Pole is in sharp contradiction against the CO2 global warming scenarios which were supposed to melt most of the ice masses of the world.” So much so, Soon says, that “it is still being denied by some professional scientists“. Soon says that the freezing of the South Pole is “one fact that shows how much more we need to understand about how the Earth climate system can vary naturally and how different regions are inter-related to each other rather than insisting that all changes and variations must be caused by rising atmospheric CO2 alone.

Antarctic sea ice should retreat when PDO and AMO cool

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi, who specializes in providing commercial clients with short-term and seasonal forecasts, also thinks other major global factors are at play – for one: ocean surface temperature oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic, i.e. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation (AMO): “The southern oceans around Antarctic are cool in a warm PDO, but warm in a cool PDO.”

Bastardi believes that once the PDO is well into the cool phase, the Antarctic sea ice will retreat. “If the southern ice cap does not shrink, then that will be a problem, but I have confidence it will.”

But Arctic will recover

Conversely Bastardi thinks that as the AMO enters its cool phase, in about 5 -10 years, the Arctic will be well on its way to recovery. Already we see signs of that starting today. Joe has written an entire essay on this, and it will be posted tomorrow.

In summary: While scientists who have invested careers in tying climate change to CO2 are scrambling to explain the lack of cooperation by the sea ice at the South Pole, other experts think the anomaly is all part of longer term natural cycles which man is powerless to stop.


Germany’s Green Party Sets Up Hotline…For “Sexual Violence Victims” Of Its “Staunch” 1980s Pedophilia Rights Advocacy

An ugly pedophilia chapter of Germany’s environmentalist Green Party refused to be forgotten – and will now be dealt with through a hotline for “victims of sexual violence“.

The German Greens have scrambled to keep an embarrassing reality under the carpet of history, away from the public’s view. That notorious chapter is their once strident advocacy for the legalization of pedophilia, see background here.

On Wednesday Germany’s leftist Berlin-based TAZ published an article reporting the German Green Party has, after months of stalling, finally set up an official “telephone hotline for the victims of sexual violence.” The TAZ calls the move “surprising”.

Hat-tip DirkH

What was the extent of pedophile involvement in the Green Party? Spiegel wrote in-depth here (my emphasis):

No political group in Germany promoted the interests of men with pedophile tendencies as staunchly as the environmental party. For a period of time in the mid-1980s, it practically served as the parliamentary arm of the pedophile movement.” [...]

When the Green Party was founded in 1980, pedophiles were part of the movement from the start [...] were joined by the so-called ‘Urban Indians,’ who advocated the ‘legalization of all affectionate sexual relations between adults and children’.”

These “Urban Indians”, Spiegel wrote, “were often a visible part of Green Party gatherings.”

That dark past obviously has become an unbearable thorn for the Greens in the present. The TAZ writes that for years the top honchos of the environmentalist-pacifist party refused to take the step of setting up a contact-center for victims, preferring to downplaying the whole messy . But, to her credit, current party chief Simone Peter has decided to set up the hotline at Green Party headquarters, following the recommendation of the Green Party working group “AG Rehabilitation” which, according to the TAZ, has been since last December pursing the subject of pedophile involvement within the Greens.

Wikipedia presents a comprehensive overview (in German) of the Green Party’s debate on the topic and provides quotes from prominent Green Party leaders, such as Daniel Cohn-Bendit who in 1982 said on a French Antenne 2 (today, France 2) talkshow “Apostrophes“ on 23 April 1982:

You know, the sexuality of a kid is something absolutely fantastic. […] You know when a little girl of five years starts to undress herself, it’s just great because it is a game, a fantastically erotic game.”

Though some have attempted to downplay the issue as a past, fringe one within the Green Party, Cohn-Bendit himself insisted that the pedophilia rights were “mainstream” in the Green Party.

Keep in mind that for years leading Green figures such as Cohn-Bendit were welcome darlings of the European media. These are people who, as Spiegel wrote, “tolerated people whose agenda had nothing to do with progress and emancipation, but solely with the exploitation of their position of power and trust in relation to minors

Perhaps Wikipedia editor and UK Green Party member William Connelly could put the German Wikipedia content up in English. Of course who could blame him for deleting it altogether? In the meantime, the ugly history is well-portrayed by Spiegel here.

Whether a hotline (open only 2 hours a week) will be enough to undo the damage caused by the Green Party’s earlier staunch encouragement of the exploitation of small children by fantasy-obsessed men remains highly doubtful.


PIOMASS Data Analysis: “UNPARALLELED” 3-SIGMA LOW JULY ICE MELT…Lowest On Satellite Record!

Germans Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse took a look at the July 2014 Arctic sea ice data. They found astonishing results. What follows is the Arctic sea ice part of the story I reported on here.

The Sun In July 2014 And Arctic Sea Ice In Mid Summer
By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Every summer over the past years Arctic sea ice has been the subject of much public interest. Especially after 2006 there have been years (recall 2007 and 2012) when a large part of the Arctic ice cap melted away and all the talk was about the “Arctic death spiral“.

Since 1979 we have been collecting really good, validated and homogenized data from satellite observations that look at two important magnitudes: 1) the sea ice cover area in square kilometers, and 2) the so-called ice extent in square kilometers², i.e. that is at least 15% ice covered. The linear trend of this is indeed downward since observations began:

Figure 4: July sea ice extent since 1979.

The excitement at the start of the melt season in May/June is always big. How many millions of square kilometers will still be left in September? Estimating this value is no easy task because upward deviations from the trend line have occurred time and again (like in the 1990s and early 2000s), and downward deviations (2007, 2011, 2012).

But last year and the year before the Arctic sea ice ended up close to the trend line. Every year the Sea Ice Prediction Network conducts a survey of educated guesses of sea ice extent expected by mid-September. This is what it looks like this year:

Figure 5: Forecast for September 2014 sea ice extent, from various sources and methods. Source:

For comparison, last year’s (2013) figure of 5.4 million km² is added in the chart. The mean value of this year’s estimates made in June is 4.8 million km², i.e. far above 2012’s record low value of 3.6 million km².

Also a co-author of this article participated; his forecast made in early July was 5.0 million km². He used the heat content of the Arctic basin and the existing ice volume at the end of the winter. There are many decisive factors that are impossible to know so early on, e.g. the weather (foremost the currents from warmer land and wind), and other natural factors.

We already know that every prediction is difficult, especially those dealing with the future. Having observed the development so far until the end of July, it is highly probable that we will see a repeat of 2013, which would mean that the mean of all those submitting a forecast will be approx. 0.6 million km² too low.

Only 5100 km³ melted in July 2014

The sea ice could turn out to be more robust than previously assumed. That has to do with a magnitude that is not visible in satellite images: the thickness of the ice – or its volume. Here we are left to rely on models. One that is often used is PIOMAS. It provides daily data on ice volume and the latest July value yields the following chart over the years:

Figure 6: Ice volume (1979 = 100%) as to PIOMAS for July 31 of each year, eight-year smoothed non-linear trend.

July is a very important month during the melt season: In the Arctic the sun shines 24 hours per day, irradiance there exceeds that of the tropics as a result. The sun is also high above the horizon and so only about 15% of the sun’s radiation in the water is reflected. The open water absorbs large quantities of energy, which can melt the ice from the side and from underneath. And this year something completely unusual happened: while since 1979 approx. 6500 km³ melted in July, this year only 5100 km³ melted.

Figure 7: July ice volume loss plot since 1979. Shown are also the limits depicting 2 standard deviations (bold black lines). Source:

The very low melt in 2014 is a 3-sigma event!

A negative record – since 1979 – that is unparalleled. The relatively steady decline shown in Figures 4 and 6 is deceptive – the ice of the current year is decisively determined by the previous year. To a great extent the series is auto-correlated. One sees the true development much better with the Figure 7 loss diagram.

Baffled experts

Something seems to have happened during the peak of summer to lead to a stopping of the downward trend. It was internal natural variability within our climate – it certainly was not the weather. All experts are currently baffled. This year the weather resembles more that of the year 2012, and back then there was a low point in ice volume development.

Over the last years natural variability has been increasingly used in climate science to explain away over-hasty predictions of greenhouse effects. Also the observations of the Arctic ice are adding to the scramble for explanations. If you are interested how the Arctic sea ice will finish in September – then stay tuned!