“We Are Now Starting To See A Dramatic Cooling In The Arctic”, Says Former NOAA Meteorologist …”Extremely Cold” From 2025 To 2050!

Trillions are being spent on the completely wrong scenario, an independent veteran meteorologist implies. Instead of warming, we need to worry about the coming 125-year cool period, which has already begun.

A former National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist has spoken out in a just released 49-minute video that looks at climate change and what lies ahead.

DilleyThe recent cold winters and expanding polar ice caps are ominous signs of a global cooling that has already begun, maintains David Dilley, now President and Founder of Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. Claims of warming have not been properly founded.

Photo right: David Dilley, Global Weather Oscillations

Dilley has forty-two years of professional experience in the meteorology and climatology and many publications. He was with NOAA for twenty years. Not only is the government wrong with its claims of a coming warming, Dilley accuses the federal government of fiddling with global temperature data with the aim of producing a false picture of what is going on.

In his must-see video presentation dubbed “Is Climate Change Dangerous?“, he examines the many drivers and factors behind climate change and why we need to focus on the real problem of a coming cooling.

Here are the points he makes in the video:

1. The 18+ years temperature pause is real. (4.09)
2. Natural cycles are behind the current pause.
3. Ice cores show CO2 lags temperature. (5.00)
4. 7000 years ago there was 50% less Arctic ice. (8.20)
5. The 1000-year cycle is real. (9.20)
6. Planet has been cooling over past 10,000 years. (9.34)
7. Natural cycles are driving our climate. (10.04)
8. Shows cooling from 2023 to 2150.
9. Current warming is perfectly natural.
10. Milankovitch cycles driving large-scale cycles. (13.00)
11. Gravitational forces can bulge Earth’s core by 1.4 km (15.35)
12. Gravitational forces impact global temperature (17.20)
13. Warming and cooling both begin at the poles (17.48)
14. Arctic warming/melt was caused by warm ocean pulses (19.50)
15. “Now starting to see a dramatic cooling in the Arctic“. (22.50)
16. “Arctic is cooling rapidly now. Rapidly!” (24.06)
17. Both poles are cooling rapidly now. (25.05(
18. Poles don’t show signs of warming. (26.30)
19. Western drought and Eastern cold due to 26-year cycle. (27.55)
20. Polar vortices due to Arctic/global cooling. (29.25)
21. Lunar cycles correlated with warming/cooling cycles. (31.30)
22. Rapid global cooling by 2019. (32.00)
23. “Temperature fiddling” are “more political than anything”. (32.56)
24. “Could be the biggest scientific scandal ever”. (33.20)
25. IPCC using “estimated temperatures”. (34.00)
26. How the government manipulated, rewrote data. (36.00)
27. “This is temperature fiddling.” Not the truth. (36.45)
28. NASA, NOAA’s “politically driven press releases”. (37.00)
29. Met Office calls NOAA’s 2014 claim untrue. (38.00)
30. Major data fiddling, cheating by NOAA. (39.50)
31. “The 97% consensus is bogus”. (41.00)
32. John Cook cooked the consensus data. (41.30)
33. 85% meteorologists say climate change is natural. (42.20)
34. Global cooling is the real danger. (43.20)
35. Volcanoes and cooling often correlated. (44.00)
36. Crop failures from cooling “very likely”. (45.45)
37. “Extremely cold” from 2025 to 2050. (46.36)
38. Global cooling next 125 years. (47.00)
39. “The cooling is coming”.

Recovery Day

I just got back to Germany earlier today after spending 2 weeks out in the states. The overnight transatlantic flights after such a period always give me major jetlag. I’m not the type that sleeps on planes and I don’t cope well at all with the time shifts.

Lots of photos here to tell you what I’m feeling right now. I’m struggling just to keep awake, which I plan to do until 9 pm. I have to keep moving outside in the fresh air. If I sit down for even just a couple of minutes, the exhaustion floods in.

So, no blogging today. Be back tomorrow!

The Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Aversion To Debate

Dr. Sebastian Lüning’s and Professor Fritz Vahrenholt’s “Die kalte Sonne” site here bring us a perfect example illustrating how debate losers like to handle debate: simply declare it over and walk away. (Translated and edited by P Gosselin)

===========================

The Heinrich Böll Foundation runs a climate blog called “Klima der Gerechtigkeit (Climate of Justice). Author Lili Fuhr writes regularly there on topics like “James Hansen predicts much higher sea level rise over the coming decades: 2°C more is much too much!” or “Pope opposes emissions trading in climate protection”. In the reader comments there really isn’t much going on. Perhaps there’s a very strict moderation in place? Indeed at the site it is stated:

We are beyond whether climate change is taking place and whether it is caused by man. It is aseptic to continue this debate. Now it gets down to having a discussion on what is the best way to combat it [climate change].

Following the Boll Foundation’s logic we’d also lead an aseptic debate. This saddens us naturally because we are convinced that climate is changing, and that this always happened in pre-industrial times. Perhaps readers would like to inject a little life to Lili Fuhr’s blog and leave a few comments? Here you can go to her blog. Kalte Sonne chief Editor Sebastian Lüning tried, and within 50 milliseconds a reply page appeared bearing the message: “Spam deleted”. That’s what we call an especially rash and consequential comment oderation..

 

 

Global Temperature Stuck 18 Years And 7 Months, “Oceans To Bring Cooling Phase in Near Future”

Just a quick post today, German site wobleibtdieglobaleererwaermung here writes that whenever one observes a number of datasets, they have one thing in common: There’s no detectable CO2 warming, and there”s verzylittle out there suggesting the warming will continue.

Most temperature datasets don’t show warming, sea ice doesn”t show it, lower troposphere temperature data do not show it, snow cover data don’t show it, historical climate cycles do not show it, and on goes the list.

wobleibtdieglobaleererwaermung now tells us that “the global satellite measurements by UAHv6 now show a warming ‘pause’ of 221 months spanning from March 1997 to July 2015, which is over half of the satellite record, which began in January 1979: (36×12+7 = 439 months/2 = 219.5 months).” See their first figure.

Even the current El Niño has not been able to stop the pause up to now. And once again the “Super El Niño” is struggling. True the current ElNiño is expected to end the warming pause, but only temporarilly as the expected subsequent La Niña 2016/2017 will compensate and once again continue extending the warming pause, possibly well beyond 20 years.

The gaping divergence continues

Even a slight trend warming would not be enough to salvage the global warming theory wreckage. The wobleibtdieglobaleererwaermung site reminds us: “The unfalsified measured global reality since 1990 continued to diverge again from the IPCC model projections again in July 2015“, see their second figure.

Moreover realistic estimations of global temperature development tell us to expect the opposite in the future (cooling), says wobleibtdieglobaleerderwaermung:

‘…Because of the thermal inertia in the climate system, formost the heat capacity of the ocean, the current temperature stagnation will turn into a cooling phase in the near future.’ Source: 2015 SO xxx Cf-Klima – Berliner Wetterkarte.”

National Academy Of Sciences Study Shows World’s Love Affair With “Stepping Stone To Prosperity” Growing!

Despite the trillion-dollar campaign aimed at curbing fossil fuels, the use of coal continues to rapidly expand and is acting to finally pull undeveloped countries out of extreme grinding poverty.

Investors Business Daily (IBD) here reports “coal use is surging across the globe“, citing the National Academy of Sciences, which says there’s an “unmistakable coal renaissance under way” and that coal “has again become ‘the most important source of energy-related emissions on the global scale.'”

Hat-tip: AndyG55

The NAS study shows coal use is expanding strongly in poor Asian countries like India and China, mainly because of its high affordability. IBD writes: “In sum, using coal is a stepping stone to prosperity.”

The IBD site adds that 1,200 coal plants are planned across 59 countries, that coal use around the world has grown about four times faster than renewables, and that China’s reliance upon coal will keep growing:

And according to U.S. government projections, China will add yet another U.S. worth of coal plants over the next 10 years, or the equivalent of a new 600-megawatt plant every 10 days for 10 years.”

The IBD blasts the Obama Adminstration’s plan to cut back on coal use in the USA, writing that the President is living in a “dreamland” and that “the rest of the world has no intention of following Mr. Obama’s act of economic masochism” and that the plan “will cost America hundreds of thousands of jobs” and “the poor will be hurt most“.

Strangely despite surging coal consumption, global temperatures have not risen in close to two decades. Consequently the once highly ballyhooed global warming theory is crumbling,

Read more at Investor’s Business Daily.

Cooling Atlantic Trend: Iceland Sees Coldest Summer in More Than 20 Years… “Cold Period Taking Over”

The Iceland Monitor website here writes the North Alantic island is having its coldest summer in more than 20 years. According to the site:

The first thirteen weeks of summer this year have been the coldest in Reykjavik in over twenty years, reveals Icelandic meteorologist Trausti Jónsson.

The northern city of Akureyri fares even worse – one has to go back around thirty years to find a colder summer.”

Experts now say their are growing signs that this may be much more than a mere weather anomaly, and have more to do with an overall developing cooling trend. The Iceland Review site here writes that Met Office meteorologist Páll Bergþórsson warns how “Iceland may be entering a cold period“:

Iceland has enjoyed 25 years of above-average temperatures, Páll told Morgunblaðið, but those years may be over with a cold period taking over in the coming years.

‘The ocean here off Southwest Iceland is colder than usual and the cold is persistent after it first arrives,’ Páll stated.”

The cold is not isolated to Iceland, but appears to be spreading across the greater North Atlantic. Paul Homewood writes at his site on how the United Kingdom recently “saw one of the coldest July nights for many years“, with southern England setting a new record low of just 1°C on August 1st.

The cold gripping the North Atlantic likely is likely in large part due to cooling sea surface temperatures. The following chart from Climate4You shows how SST in June was at its lowest point in 14 years.

Atlantic SST Noth climate4you

German Scientists: Former IPCC Author Peter Wadhams Showing Pattern Of Irrationaliy …”Extremely Far-Fringe Corner”

Professor Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning recently took a look at the odd behavior of former IPCC author Peter Wadhams, who now suspects the oil industy of being behind the accidental deaths of three climate colleagues.

Three British scientists have lost their lives since 2013 – all three had been involved in Arctic research. One was killed by lightning, another fell down some stairs, and the other killed in a bicycle accident. This series of unfortunate, yet totally unrelated, incidents is enough to have Wadhams thinking it may well be a sinisterly crafted campaign orchestrated by Big Oil.

The Telegraph reported:

Three scientists investigating melting Arctic ice may have been assassinated, professor claims
Cambridge Professor Peter Wadhams suspects the deaths of the three scientists were more than just an ‘extraordinary’ coincidence […] The three scientists he identified – Seymour Laxon and Katherine Giles, both climate change scientists at University College London, and Tim Boyd of the Scottish Association for marine Science – all died within the space of a few months in early 2013. Professor laxon fell down a flight of stairs at a New year’s Eve party at a house in Essex while Dr Giles died when she was in collision with a lorry when cycling to work in London. Dr Boyd is thought to have been struck by lightning while walking in Scotland. […] Asked who might have wanted them out the way, [Wadhams] replied: “I can only think of the oil lobby but I don’t think the oil lobby goes around killing people.”

Read the entire aricle at The Telegraph.

Vahrenholt and Lüning write that Wadhams’s behavior appears to be part of a larger pattern of behavioral eccentricity. They write:”Already in the climate discussion he’s been turning off his colleagues totally with his hysterical climate catastrophe scenarios.” For example Wadhams is among those who promote the Arctic sea ice death spiral, telling the world in 2012 that the Arctic would be toast by the year 2016. Even the most hardcore alarmists think that particular scenario is preposterous. Last September Gavin Schmidt wrote at Twitter:

Some anticipation for Peter Wadhams. Audience members already crying, ‘Wadhams still using graphs with ridiculous projections with no basis in physics,’ ‘Wadhams now onto methane pulse of 50 GT. But no better justified than his previous statements,’ and ‘Wadhams clearly states that there is no physics behind his extrapolations.’”

The Arctic sea ice Armageddon is not the only nutty fantasy Wadhams is obsessed with. He is also hysterical about the methane bombe. Spiegel Online reported in 2013 that a group of leading scientists declared an imminent climate catastrophe.

Scientist Gail Whiteman of Ersmus University in Rotterdam calculated together with Chris Hope and Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge how expensive climate change at the poles could be for the entire world. The researchers arrived at a figure of 60 trillion dollars– that is about equivalent to the entire global output for 2012. […] In 2010 Natalia Schachowa of the University of Fairbanks in Alaska for the first time reported on the unsettling phenomenon of methane release in Siberia, and that it could be a sort of Arctic time bomb.

It turns out that this time bomb is pure fantasy from hysterical minds. There is no scientific basis for it. The estimates of damage are also of no value.

Renowned climate scientist Judith Curry made it clear in an article at her blog titled “Arctic time bomb (?)” that a large number of colleagues do not share the Arctic methane catastrophe. Even Gavin Schmidt of NASA sees only a minimal chance of a rash release of methane in the Arctic. Tipping point specialist Tim Lenton of Exeter University also sees no urgent danger and sees a process happening only on a scale of tens of thousands of years. A report by Carolyn D. Ruppel in 2011 also shows the same. Curry also mentions other critical opinions, like those of David Archer of the University of Chicago who calls the methane climate bomb scenario “completely baseless”.

Lüning and Vahrenholt conclude that when one considers the recent conspiraicy theories made by Wadhams along with his wild climate claims, “A picture is created of a man who has manoevered himsefl into a  extremely far fringe corner in the climate dicussion. Wadhms has squandered is credibilty. There should be no place for an activist. on a referee panel like the IPCC.”

July Analysis: Gore Ice-Free Arctic Fantasies Have Seen Their Waterloo… “Polar Ice Caps Are In Fact Growing”

A few days ago German website wobleibtdieglobaleerderwärmung (where’s the global warming – hereinafter WBDGE) also looked at polar sea ice.

The site writes that despite all the global warming and ice-melt fantasies circulating through the circles of climate alarmism, “Arctic sea ice extent in July 2015 increased strongly compared to a year earlier.”

Linearer Trend der arktischen Meereisflächen (extent) im Juni 2015. Von Juni 2004 bis Juni 2015 gibt es keinen signifikanten Rückgang der arktischen Meereisflächen mehr.

Linear trend for Arctic sea ice extent for July. Since July 2006/7 to July 2015 there’s been a brisk rise in Arctic sea ice extent. Source: nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

The WBDGE site writes:

“Wasn’t Arctic sea ice spposed to be gone already in 2013? Al Gore predicted in 2008 that the Arctic would be completely ice-free by 2013! Such amazing nonsense. The unfalsified reality appears as follows: The polar ice caps are in fact growing– record sea ice in Antarctica.

The upward linear Antarctic sea ice trend has been continuing since 1979! The trend there remained unchanged also in July this year:

Stetig steigender linearer Trend der antarktischen Meereisflächen (extent) im Juni 2015: Zweithöchster Stand seit Beginn der Messungen 1979.

For 37 years the linear trend for Antarctic sea ice has been on the rise: This last July was the fourth highest since measurements began in 1979. Source: nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/.

This has been going on despite the repeated data falsifications surrounding global warming, see NOAA study falsifies data: The global warming pause simply gets calculated away.

Now that it’s clear the Gore fantasies of 2008 failed to materialize, the Arctic now is supposed to be ice-free in the summer of 2016, according to 2013 calculations by the US-Navy: Arctic to be ice free at the latest in 2016.

Anyone ready to bet that it won’t happen? New solar model: “Little Ice Age” already in 15 years – icy winter in Europe and North America.”

July Data Rolls In…Consensus Of Datasets Agree: Warming Has Stopped… Global Temperature Firmly Stuck!

German website wobleibtdieglobaleerderwärmung (where’s the global warming – WBDGE) does an excellent job at analyzing and observing climate data and trends. German readers are recommended to bookmark this site.

In its latest post the site looks at the July results and the overall global temperature and sea ice trend. It finds that multiple datasets clearly show that our blue planet remains firmly stuck on its years-long temperature plateau.

The WBDGE summarizes:

UAH/TLT saw an anomaly of +0.18°C (previous month 0.33, previous year 0.24) ranking this July as only the 9th warmest of 37. See UAH V6.0 Global Temperature Update for July 2015: +0.18°C

RSS/TLT (preliminary): saw an anomaly of 0.20°C, (previous month 0.39) and is thus in very close agreement with UAH results. This would rank it as the 10th warmest of the 37 years of data so far.

Trend der globalen Satellitenmessungen (TLT) von RSS: Erwärmungs”pause” (grüne Linie) von Ende 1996 bis Juni 2015, negativer Trend (blaue Linie) von Januar 1998 bis Juni 2015. Quelle: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/
RSS TLT trend for global satellite measurements: Warming plateau (green line) since to June 2015, negative trend (blue line) from January 1998 to June 2015. Source: www.woodfortrees.orgd

The NOAA/NCEP/CFSv2 surface temperature at 2 meters, comes in at only 0.16°C (global 2m – http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php). This ranks it at a relatively uneventful 10 of 37 years. Image MouseOver Tool.

In summary here we see three heavyweight datasets showing and all agreeing on a protracted stalled warming.

Growing sea ice volume

Moreover the WBDGE site writes that Arctic sea ice has grown “strongly” over last year and that there has been no melting trend there in almost 10 years.

The WBDGE adds that there is about 2000 cubic KILOMETERS more sea ice than 3 years ago: https://sites.google.com/piomas.

How can anyone say global warming is happening and is real when temperatures have long stalled and sea ice is growing?

The WBGE site comments:

Also July of 2015, and thus the 19th year without any signfiant linear global warming,  – the question remains: where’s the global warming?

Despite these real facts there are still people who publicly deny the global warming pause that has been happening since 1996 […] or who want to calculate it away with obvious data falsifications.”

Michael Mann Blemishes Himself In Austria …German Scientists: “Can No Longer Be Taken Seriously”

German climate science critics Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, authors of the book: The Neglected Sun, have a comment at their ‘Die kalte Sonne’ site where they criticize Dr. Michael Mann for making reality-detached claims.

Hockey stick inventor Michael Mann makes himself look foolish in an ORF-Interview: “One thing they all have in common: The end of the curve have a steep rise”

(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

On May 25, 2015 Austrian public broadcaster ORF was compelled to present the inventor of the now fully discredited Hockey Stick chart (Figure 1) in an interview:

The temperature rise is unprecedented
The ‘Hockey Stick’ is the most well-known and controversial curve in climate science: It shows how massively man is impacting the Earth’s climate. Michael Mann is the creator of this chart: In an interview he explains how he arrived at his discovery.”

Nonsense. The curve is false, and so how can it show how much man is impacting the climate? This is a totally faulty logical performance by the Austrian ORF. Ten years later the error was uncovered and more realistic reconstructions were rolled out, for example one by Ljungqvist 2010 (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Hockey stick chart from 1998/2001.

Figure 2: Temperature reconstruction as to Ljungqvist 2010. RWP=Roman Warm Period, MWP=Medieval Warm Period, CWP=Modern  Warm Period, LIA=Little Ice Age, DACP=Dark Ages Cold Period.

It is already quite frightening the nonsense the ORF expects its audience to believe:

science.ORF.at: The Hockey Stick developed from being a level headed temperature curve to a real phenomenon in the Internet. What does the chart show?

Mann: We’ve been measuring the global temperature on the planet with thermometers for about 100 years. In this period the atmosphere warmed up about 1°C. If we want to know just how unusual this warming has been, then we have to look much further back in the past. This can be done only by evaluating the natural archives – tree rings, corals, ice cores and ediments, which help tell us how the climate in the past developed. This is precisely what we did at the end of the 1990s. The result from this: the most recent warming has been unprecedented. The temperature curve of the Hockey Stick begins about 1000 years ago and falls off during the Middele Ages until the so-called Little Ice Age. But starting in the 20th century, the curve suddenly shoots upwards. The temperature is now rising faster than ever before. That’s the blade of the hockey stick.”

Now take a look at Figure 2. Is the warming of the 20th century really unprecendented as Mann claims? Why was it as warm 1000 years ago as it is today? Now comes one of the highlights of the interview:

science.ORF.at: In the 2007 IPCC report in addition to your works there was also a dozen other papers from other teams mentioned. The temperature curves of your colleagues however do not always look like hockey sticks.

Mann: True, but there’s one thing they all have in common: The ends of all the curves all shoot steeply upwards.”

Ha ha. Mann here is right. But this is not what the issue is about. The warming after the LIttle Ice Age is recognized by everyone. Mann is being criticized for his depiction of the 1000-1900 A.D. period, which he claims was pretty much flat. Michael Mann today will not find a single one of his colleagues who supports that.

The ORF is not totally awful when it comes to this issue. They ask the question of all questions:

science.ORF.at: You just mentioned that the recent warming is unprecedented. However there have been periods in the Earth’s history that were as warm, and indeed without the impact of man. Why?

Mann: Of course that is true. Millions of years ago there was no ice on the Earth’s surface. Back then it was warmer than today. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was even probably five times higher than it is now. However that was the result of geological processes taking place on scales of 100 million years. Today’s changes on the other hand are one million times more rapid. It is not about the absolute temperature. It is about the enormous speed at which the temperature is changing. Natural adpatation at this speed simply cannot keep up. That’s worrisome because the seven billion people on this planet are dependent on a stable climate.”

One look at the temperature reconstruction of Figure 2 tells us: Michael Mann can no longer be taken seriously. The ORF had to have known this already. Going back millions of years and large timescales is completely unnecessary. Without blushing Mann simply denies the Medieval Warm Period. The ORF gives Mann a free pass and lets him get by. What an embarassment.

Joe Bastardi: “Heat Will Not Get Erased By Three Solar Cycles …July 2015 Not The Warmest

Joe Bastardi at his Weatherbell Analytics presents an excellent Saturday Summary that looks back at earlier El Nino events.

Today’s El Nino is being hyped and many are preparing to say that July 2015 will be among the warmest, if not the warmest, on record.

July 2015

Chart: NCEP

However the veteran meteorologist tells us in the video that according to NCEP at least 9 other Julys have been warmer, among them: 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009.

According to NCEP, which Joe Bastardi calls the gold standard of temperature because it is based on real time measurement, comes in at 0.145°C anomaly.

What happens after the current El Nino will tell us a lot about the global warming trend, Bastardi says. Should the subsequent La Nina come in cooler than the previous ones, then global warmists will have a tough time explaining it.

Joe reaffirms that he thinks that the globe will cool modestly by 2030 and that the sun and oceans play a far greater role in climate than CO2 does.

But when it comes to the sun’s impact on global temperature he cautions that some are putting too much emphasis on solar cycles and that the coming low solar activity cycles will not play that large a role.

The heat is not going to get erased by 3 sunspot cycles.”

Sun Is “The Major Control On Climate Change,” Say German Scientists In New Book

Climate skeptic book “The Neglected Sun” by German scientists Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt is now

available in paperback

. Geologist George Devries Klein has published a book review at the blog of the Heartland Institute:

In both my opinion and experience, this book is by far the best book I have encountered and read on the issue of climate change and anthropogenic global warming. Anyone interested in this topic should read a copy. It’s that definitive.

The book is a translation of the German version, Der Kalte Sonne, published in 2012. Thus, some of the policy discussions are set in a German context. They do provide a glimpse of what could happen if similar policies are adopted elsewhere as one sees today in the UK.

Here are some critical things I learned from the book (this is an incomplete list):

  • The sun, including its magnetic cycles, and inner dynamics, exerts the major control on climate variability and climate change.
  • Six different cycles of solar activity are documented. The climate history of the earth, including the last 150 years, correlate closely with these cycles which range from 11 to 2300 years. Moreover, some are amplified long term by Milankovich orbital parameters.
  • The sun’s quantitative influence on climate change exceeds the influence of anthropogenic CO2, although the authors acknowledge that anthropogenic CO2 has a minor role to play in raising global temperatures (I concur with this interpretation). The supporting arguments are well-buttressed and convincing
  • The current temperature “Pause” is explained in terms of solar cycles and decreasing solar radiation. Likely, a period of cooling is ahead as solar radiation entering a diminished phase.
  • Chapters 5 (Has the IPCC really done its homework?), 6 (The misunderstood climate amplifiers), and 7 (A look into the future) provide the most detailed and accurate critique of the UN-IPCC’s reports I have read (I call it a withering dissection). Thus, projected future temperature increases are expected to be much less than the UN-IPCC infers and the climate ‘crisis’ is overblown far too much. These chapters are incisive.
  • The last two chapters deal with German climate and energy policy. They are instructive because the policies are failing, particularly as electricity costs have skyrocketed since implementation. This is becoming a universal problem.
  • A trivial (or perhaps not) fact I did not know. Before Angela Merkel became Chancellor of Germany, she was the minister of the environment. It appears she was co-opted by the green movement well before her rise to global prominence.

Summary recommendation: Buy this book. Our future may depend on it.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: George Devries Klein is a geologist who earned his MA from the University of Kansas and his PhD from Yale University in that field. He worked for Sinclair Research, Inc., and taught at the Universities of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and Illinois @ Urbana Champaign. He is now Professor Emeritus, Geology, University of Illinois @ Urbana Champaign. Between 1996 and 2014, he was president of SD-STRAT Geoscience Consultants, Inc, a geological consulting firm in the petroleum field. He is now retired in Guam.

Back In Business!

After a few days being crippled, it looks like we’re back on track! I haven’t checked everything, but so far it looks to be in order. Permalinks are working and readers can once again comment.

Social media stud Markus S. put the NTZ house back in order and we’re even back to the original theme! Thanks Markus, you’re the best!

Will be posting later this evening. :)

 

New Social Sciences Paper Shows Climate Skepticism In Germany “Prominent In Public Opinion Polls”!

A new social sciences paper by Kaiser & Rhomberg on climate skepticism in Germany titled “Questioning the Doubt: Climate Skepticism in German Newspaper Reporting on COP17” has just appeared in the journal Environmental Communication.

The abstract reads (my emphasis)

“Despite numerous international studies on climate change, there is skepticism in the media and it is prominent in public opinion polls. This article focuses in particular on the framing of climate skepticism in Germany, a country that, in the main, is said to be convinced about climate change. By using a two-step content analysis of 379 news articles (print and online) we demonstrate that climate skepticism is present in German news media reporting on the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Durban, South Africa. We identify two overarching skepticism frames: skepticism about the phenomenon of climate change and about climate science. Our analysis further shows that climate skepticism is not exclusive to a specific political ideology, even though a newspaper ideology may influence how skeptical frames are being evaluated.”

Sadly, the paper’s biased tone is one of viewing climate science skepticism as being a threat that needs the attention of public policy. It writes in the conclusion (my emphasis):

“Also more global research on climate change skepticism is needed (especially in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Russia and to some extent Asia) to further understand what arguments are used to hinder the global fight against dangerous climate change (Schäfer & Schlichting, 2014).”

Here Kaiser and Rhomberg are running along with the academic herd, accepting the IPCC science at face value without question. Both openly and uncritically accept all the campus chanting that the skeptics are wrong. This blind groupthink is the sorrowful state of how academia works today in Germany.

Data Show No Danger To Pacific Atolls From Sea Level …”The Majority Have Enlarged”

Note: The NTZ site remains crippled due to WordPress upgrade from version 4.2.2 to 4.2.3.

New posts can only be viewed through the NTZ homepage. Reader comments function is also disabled by the recent upgrade. Sorry. It’s very frustrating for me as well.

As I’m not an IT guy, nor do I have time to devote to this problem right now, no solution is in sight. Now may be just as good a time to end the climate-blogging career (and just blame site assassins out to get me. /sarc)
=========================================

Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt recently have had a long series of excellent posts on sea level rise. Not surprisingly they show there’s nothing to worry about on that front. At many locations worldwide sea level is not even rising.

Kiribati

In their latest post Lüning and Vahrenholt write: “Good news from the Pacific: Sea level in Kiribati shows no longterm increase over the past 20 years.”

Figure 1: Kiribati sea level trend 1994-2008. Source: Aung et al. 2009.

Moreover satellite measurements also show no trend for the period.

Figure 2: Sea level rise in the region of Kiribati based on satellite measurements. Source: University of Colorado.

Also Lüning and Vahrenholt write that no region in the atolls have been found where coastal erosion is occurring. What follows is the abstract of a recent paper (emphasis added):

Coral islands defy sea-level rise over the past century: Records from a central Pacific atoll”
The geological stability and existence of low-lying atoll nations is threatened by sea-level rise and climate change. Funafuti Atoll, in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has experienced some of the highest rates of sea-level rise (∼5.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr), totaling ∼0.30 ± 0.04 m over the past 60 yr. We analyzed six time slices of shoreline position over the past 118 yr at 29 islands of Funafuti Atoll to determine their physical response to recent sea-level rise. Despite the magnitude of this rise, no islands have been lost, the majority have enlarged, and there has been a 7.3% increase in net island area over the past century (A.D. 1897–2013). There is no evidence of heightened erosion over the past half-century as sea-level rise accelerated. Reef islands in Funafuti continually adjust their size, shape, and position in response to variations in boundary conditions, including storms, sediment supply, as well as sea level. Results suggest a more optimistic prognosis for the habitability of atoll nations and demonstrate the importance of resolving recent rates and styles of island change to inform adaptation strategies.”

So why is sea level not behaving like the alarmists said it would? Lüning and Vahrenholt add:

Like in many other parts of the world, the Pacific ocean cycles play a roll in that they influence sea level in 60-year cycles. In December 2013 a team of scientists led by Jae-Hong Moon published on this subject in the Journal of Geophysical Research. The reported that the satellite data series since 1993 is much too short to allow the identification and computation of the effects of longterm ocean cycles.”

That paper’s abstract tells the whole story (emphasis added):

Multidecadal regional sea level shifts in the Pacific over 1958–2008
Altimeter data have significantly improved our understanding of regional sea level variability and trends, but their relatively short records do not allow either evaluation of the ocean state prior to 1993 or multidecadal low-frequency signals in the ocean. Here we characterize and quantify the multidecadal regional sea level rise (rSLR) and related ocean heat content in the Pacific from a non-Boussinesq ocean circulation model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, two sea level reconstructions, and in situ ocean profiles from 1958 to 2008. We show that the rSLR trends have undergone two shifts, during the mid-1970s and in the early 1990s, with an east-west dipole pattern in the tropical Pacific. In each of these phases, rSLR accelerated on one side of the Pacific, but decelerated on the other side. The multidecadal sea level shifts can be explained by the dynamical (steric) upper-ocean responses to the surface wind forcing associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with negligible contributions from internal (depth-integrated) ocean mass changes. Additional model experimentation further confirms that the Pacific wind stress trend over the recent two decades has played an important role in strengthening the rSLR in the western Pacific while suppressing the rSLR in the eastern Pacific. The climate-forced large-scale rSLR variability is likely to impose a long-term and uneven impact on coastal communities.”

German Climate Professors Confirm CO2 Climate Sensitivity Projections Seriously Exaggerated!

Note: The NTZ site remains crippled due to WordPress upgrade from version 4.2.2 to 4.2.3. Until the issue gets resolved new posts can only be viewed through the NTZ homepage. Reader comments function is also disabled by the recent upgrade.
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At the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), retired climate scientist Hans-Joachim Lüdecke and two colleagues have responded to the Senate testimony given by Pat Michaels (video follows).

Video of Prof. Patrick Michaels before a Senate committee. Transcript here.

Lüdecke and his colleagues agree with Dr. Michaels’ assertion that the projected increase in the earth’s temperature from CO2 is getting smaller and smaller.

F. Gervais, C.O. Weiss and H.J. Lüdecke write at EIKE:

“Anyone who has been tracking the scientific journals on climate science has observed over many years that the supposedly expected temperature increase from CO2 has steadily been decreasing over the years.”

At EIKE Lüdecke and his colleagues provide the following chart from Landshape to back up the point:

CO2 sensitivity Landshape

The above chart from landshape.wordpress.com/2015/06/20/6921/ is a graphical compilation of published CO2 climate sensitivity results since 2000. The trend for a temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (so-called climate sensitivity) has fallen from over 4°C to under 2°C today.

This means that all the assumptions and claims made by the IPCC in the past were based on hype and totally inaccurate results.

Gervais, Weiss and Lüdecke conclude in their EIKE piece:

We can now tell politcians that they can call off the warnings. There’s no chance of a global warming of more than 2°C .

The decrease in the projected temperature rise from CO2 will continue on its present trend. By 2025 the warming by CO2 will be close to zero. We can thus expect that the quality of the forecasts will increase to the point where they will actually reflect reality.”

The Mess At WordPress

There’s a huge problem not only with my NTZ site, but it appears to have affected thousands of other sites running with WordPress.

I need more time (which I don’t have) to muddle through this sh!t.  Sorry about the troubles.

Sarah Gooding best describes the WordPress situation:

WordPress 4.2.3, a critical security release, was automatically pushed out to users yesterday to fix an XSS vulnerability. Shortly afterwards, the WordPress.org support forums were flooded with reports of websites broken by the update. […]

User confidence in WordPress’ automatic background updates took a dent with the 4.2.3 release. Waking up to broken websites causes users to second guess automatic updates after being assured that maintenance and security releases would not include breaking changes.

When users get burned by automatic updates, in the end it doesn’t matter which party is at fault – whether it’s the core team or a theme or plugin. They simply expect updates to work and not break anything. Even in instances where a poorly coded extension may be at fault, the average user has no way of determining whether or not their active plugins follow WordPress best practices.

The aftermath of the most recent security release is one reason why many developers and users are still wary of automatic updates. Amir Helzer represents many other plugin developers who are eager to find better ways to work together with the core team to provide a better update experience for users. This is especially important for releases like this one where the Shortcode API changes directly affected users’ content. Hezler’s comment reaffirms the fact that development agencies, plugin developers, and core developers are all partners on the same team. It’s time to find better ways of working together to provide the best update experience possible for WordPress users.”

 

 

Germany’s Green Crime Wave…Components Being Stripped Off Solar Parks By Mafia!

German NTV public radio reports that solar systems are being hampered by yet another problem: Mafia plundering German solar systems. It’s turning out to be a huge problem, and NTV writes that the solar industry is keeping very quiet about it in order avoid negative publicity. NTV describes how thieves equipped with just a few simple tools are able to strip panels and the expensive power inverters rapidly under the cover of night. Hardest hit are systems installed outdoors in fields – solar parks. NTV describes the night-time theft of one solar installation where the thieves simply used bolt cutters to gain access through a fence to a field with thousands of panels: “They removed almost 200 modules, most likely loading them in one or several small cargo transporters, and disappeared.” The operation took probably less than 2 hours and the loss estimated at 42,000 euros. The thieves appear to be highly organized and the activity involves a black market network that extends to Italy, North Africa and Eastern Europe.  NTV writes it sometimes takes days before the solar system operator realizes part of the system has been stolen, noticing that electric output isn’t what is used to be. By then the thieves are long gone and the trail is cold. Security systems around the perimeter or GPS chips on each module are expensive, and so park operators are hesitant to install them because it takes already years before they start to see a return on their investment. NTV writes that operators are often afraid to inform the insurance companies of smaller thefts for fear of being forced to procure expensive security systems or else have their policies cancelled. NTV writes that damages from solar module theft in Germany runs in the tens of millions of euros annually. The problem is now so big that the German police has set up a special commission aimed at fighting back the solar criminals. Of course this further adds more costs for citizens who are already massively burdened by the high green electricity costs. The following German video from Bavarian BR Television shows how easy it is to steal modules in a matter of minutes, and reports on how one solar farm operator lost 200 panels valued at 40,000 euros. NTV writes that because of a lack of transparency, the Italian mafia is now in the business of running solar parks equipped with stolen components. “For this reason solar parks in Italy are being used to launder money.”

Germans Resoundingly Saying “No!” To Clearing Forests To Make Way For Wind Parks

A survey conducted by the German Emnid polling institute found that 79% of Germans reject the installation of wind turbines in forests. That’s the result of a survey commissioned by the Deutschen Wildtier Stiftung (German Wildlife Foundation).

Lowell Mountain Daniel F July 2015

Not only are there plans to disfigure and destroy forest regions in Germany, it is already a sad reality in Vermont (New England). Here an aerial photo of a portion of the Lowell Mountain wind park shows how the once natural mountain was blasted with dynamite and forests cleared and industrialized. Photo: courtesy of Daniel F.

When asked if they agreed with the statement: “For the construction of more wind energy, in general no forest areas should disappear or be cut down.”, 79 percent replied with: “I agree!” Only 11% agreed with: “for additional wind parks also forest areas should be cleared away or cut down.” The Emnid Institute survey also determined that the public’s interest in the issue of wind parks in forests is very high. Only 8% said that the issue did not interest them.

For the Deutsche Wildtier Stiftung, the Emind results prove that a large majority of the German population reject wind parks in forests. “Wind power at any cost must not be the result of the Engergiewende,” emphasized Prof. Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt, Chairman of the German Wildlife Foundation. “The citizens of Germany do not want forests to become the victims of a one-dimensional climate policy.“ People think it is important to keep forests and biodiversity intact. Even 65% of those responding said: “In the case of any doubt, the construction of wind turbines must yield to the protection of birds and other animals”.

The thoughtless construction of wind energy in the forest is a serious threat. “Opening up forests to allow wind parks leads to the endangerment of rare species,” Prof. Dr. Vahrenholt criticized. Every year in Germany up to 240,000 bats are killed by wind turbine rotors. Although they are able to dodge the moving rotors, the negative pressure in the rotor’s wake causes the bats’ lungs to burst. Most of the domestic bats are on the endangered species list.

Bird species like the rare lesser spotted eagle, the red kite and the black stork are especially sensitive to turbines. For example half of the breeding population of the black stork disappeared in just 6 years at the Vogelsberg site in the state of Hesse after 125 wind turbines were constructed. Many predatory birds die in collisions with rotors.

“So far only the state of Saxony Anhalt has opted not to allow wind parks in forests,” says Prof. Vahrenholt. In German states with large forest areas, such as Baden-Wuerttemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, North Rhine Westphalia, Hesse and Brandenburg, there are already decrees to allow the construction of wind parks despite regional resistance to them,” said Vahrenholt.

Moreover Emnid found that among those surveyed, wind energy in forests is not a matter of personal preference, but one of a greater good – namely forest as a space for life. On the question: “Would you feel disturbed about wind turbines in the forest?”, 43% answered with “yes”.

Minister Slams German Government’s Green Energy Reform Plan: “Nonsense…Little To Do With Reality”!

As more wildly fluctuating solar and wind energy is fed into the German power grid, the question of how to prevent blackouts has been elevated to urgent.

Germany’s weekly Die Zeit recently published an interview with Franz Untersteller, Environment Minister of the state of Baden Wurttemberg. He claims “electrical power supply will be tight“. The reason is because of the federal government’s latest energy reform plan.

Untersteller believes that Germany is headed on the wrong path and is in the process of repeating California’s 1990s blunders, which led to widespread rolling blackouts and a crippling of the Golden State’s power grid.

Currently Germany’s federal Economics Minister, Sigmar Gabriel is planning a reform of Germany’s electricity market. The aim, Zeit writes, is “to allow growth of the share of fluctuating power generation without the occurrence of blackouts whenever green electricity is lacking due to the weather“.

Untersteller thinks the federal government’s plan will lead to power shortages in some areas, in part as a result of the coming shutdown and/or mothballing of non-fluctuating nuclear and conventional power plants – in combination with the lack of power transmission lines to feed power in from north German offshore windparks. There is now an immediate need for a stable baseload power supply in southern Germany.

However Untersteller sees few investors willing to invest in back-up conventional power plants that can be switched on and off as needed according to fluctuating supply because of their complete lack of profitability: “Why would investors want to build such plants? [..] Talk to the managers of the energy business. Many of them are saying that the investment decisions they made a few years ago would not be made today because of the falling price levels on the spot power exchanges.”

Untersteller calls the federal government’s latest plan for installing reserve capacity using old brown-coal plants “nonsense” because they are unable to switch on and off quickly enough in response to wind and solar power supply fluctuations. Untersteller tells Die Zeit: “Old brown coal plants viewed technically are the crass opposite of flexible power plants.”

Moreover Untersteller is puzzled as to why Germany has opted to use solutions that have already failed in other countries, recounting a meeting he had with managers of Cailfornia power company PG&E:

“When I told them what the German federal government was planning, their eyebrows went up. California had a similar system, but only until the year 2000. They had blackout situations.”

As a solution to Germany’s power grid needs, Untersteller proposes a “focused capacity market“, where in a complicated process certain flexible and environmentally friendly capacities would be bid on and auctioned off with the aim of fulfilling the requirements for a reliable power supply in a market-oriented manner. It would be costly, but Untersteller says, “Supply reliability has its price“, i.e. the consumer would get stuck with the tab.

On the government’s current plan to reform the power market, Untersteller says that it is based on “ideal conditions – on conditions that in my opinion have very little to do with the daily reality in the energy business.”