150 NON-Global Warming Graphs From 2017 Pummel Claims Of Unusual Modern Warmth

NON-Global Warming

  Emphatically Emerges

…in 122 (2017) scientific papers

 Image Source:  Loisel et al., 201

2017: 150 Graphs, 122 Scientific Papers

In the last 12 months, 150 graphs from 122 peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published that undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.

Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years.

Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time.

And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years.

Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly affirmed that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability.

The following (partial) list has been organized by geographical region.


1. North Atlantic 

Ogurtsov et al., 2017Kim et al., 2017Repschläger et al., 2017Piecuch et al., 2017Yashayaev and Loder, 2017Rosenthal et al., 2017, Abrantes et al., 2017
  

 


 2. North Pacific

 Wilson et al., 2017Anderson et al., 2017Kawakubo et al., 2017


3. Western Pacific

Bird et al., 2017Dodrill et al., 2017Nan et al., 2017Kawahata et al., 2017Deng et al., 2017Kong et al., 2017, Xu et al., 2017Sun et al., 2017

   


4. Tropical Atlantic

Rosenthal et al., 2017Flannery et al., 2017Fischel et al., 2017Granger et al., 2017

 


5. Tropical Pacific

 Rosenthal et al., 2017Zhang et al., 2017Dechnik et al., 2017Cheung, 2017


6. Southwest Greenland,  East Greenland

Kryk et al., 2017Krawczyk et al., 2017


7. Nordic Seas

Kotthoff et al., 2017Tegzes et al., 2017


8. Indian Ocean

Gong et al., 2017Zhang et al., 2017


9. South Pacific/Southern Ocean

Li, 2017 , Markle et al., 2017Turney et al., 2017

  

Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … a cooling trend since 1979.”

Latif et al., 2017      “The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s…”
Kusahara et al., 2017   “Concomitant with this positive trend in Antarctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Southern Ocean south of approximately 45°S have cooled over this period [since 1979].”

10. China

Wang et al., 2017Zhang et al., 2017, Ge et al., 2017Li et al., 2017Li et al., 2017Zheng et al., 2017Yao et al., 2017Li et al., 2017 

 
 

Hu et al., 2017  “According to the pollen records in the HRYR [Headwater Region of the Yellow River], the climate in the Holocene thermal maximum was warmer and wetter than present (temperature was 2 -3 °C higher than present)

11. Tibetan Plateau

Saini et al., 2017Sun et al., 2017Dong et al., 2017Li et al., 2017Chang et al., 2017Li et al., 2017


12. Central Asia

Lan et al., 2017Chand et al., 2017He et al., 2017Nazarova et al., 2017
 


13. United States

Alter et al., 2017Loisel et al., 2017Pontius, 2017Vachula et al., 2017

 


14. Canada

Gennaretti et al., 2017Demezhko et al., 2017Bolton and Beaudoin, 2017

Elmslie, 2017  “Pollen-based inferences suggest HTM temperatures were elevated by approximately 2-3°C [above present], and lake levels were regionally lower than today, suggesting warmer and more arid conditions than today. This warming resulted in increased algal production and associated cyanobacteria blooms in lakes in northwestern Ontario. In northeastern Ontario, climate projections suggest the HTM was 2-3°C warmer.”

15. Antarctica

Mayewski et al., 2017Stenni et al., 2017Chu et al., 2017Albot, 2017Jones et al., 2017

  

Oliva et al., 2017   (West Antarctic Peninsula)  “However, a recent analysis (Turner et al., 2016) has shown that the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32 °C/decade during 1979–1997 to a cooling trend of − 0.47 °C/decade during 1999–2014. … This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula], including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.”

16. Australia/New Zealand

Turney et al., 2017,  Jara et al., 2017Parker and Ollier, 2017

 


17. Arctic

Mangerud and Svendsen, 2017Fernández-Fernández et al., 2017Werner et al., 2017Moffa-Sánchez and Hall, 2017
 


18. Greenland

Li et al., 2017Lasher et al., 2017Reeves Eyre and Zeng, 2017Larsen et al., 2017Kobashi et al., 2017
  

Lusas et al., 2017 (East Greenland) “The lack of glacio-lacustrine sediments throughout most of the record suggests that the ice cap was similar to or smaller than present throughout most of the Holocene. … Air temperatures in Milne Land, west of our study area, based on preliminary estimates from chironomids, may have been 3–6°C warmer than at present (Axford et al. 2013).”

19. Europe

Perșoiu et al., 2017Abrantes et al., 2017 Tejedor et al., 2017Rydval et al., 2017Balanzategui et al., 2017Kaczka et al., 2017Simon et al., 2017
  

Stivrins et al., 2017 (Latvia) “[A] thermokarst active phase … began 8500 cal. yr BP and lasted at least until 7400 cal. yr BP. Given that thermokarst arise when the mean summer air temperature gradually increased ca. 2°C beyond the modern day temperature
Molnár and Végvári, 2017 (SE Central Europe) “Our study provides an estimate for the value of MAT of HTM of Pannon region with an interval of 0.4°C, relying on macroecological considerations. We calculate the temperature of the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] 1.3–1.7°C warmer than the present temperature.”

20. Scandinavia

Krossa et al., 2017Luoto and Nevalainen, 2017Fuentes et al., 2017Thienemann, 2017
 

Åkesson et al., 2017 (Norway)  “Reconstructions for southern Norway based on pollen and chironomids suggest that summer temperatures were up to 2 °C higher than present in the period between 8000 and 4000 BP, when solar insolation was higher (Nesje and Dahl, 1991; Bjune et al., 2005; Velle et al., 2005a).”

21. Mediterranean

Thienemann et al., 2017Samartin et al., 2017Ön et al., 2017Köse et al., 2017Zywiec et al., 2017Büntgen et al., 2017Thienemann, 2017


22. South America

Bertrand et al., 2017 


Global/Northern Hemisphere

Lüdecke and Weiss, 2017Büntgen et al., 2017Robertson and Chilingar, 2017Abrantes et al., 2017
 

The Great New Year’s Freeze Of 2017 Setting Cold Records …And Leading To Outlandish ‘Climate’ Claims

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi warned of a cold snap gripping the Eastern US many weeks ago, in October, at his Weatherbell Analytics site, which I visit almost daily.

Chart source: NOAA, public domain.

Today it’s all over the news: The Great Freeze of 2017 is smashing through the entire North American East, bringing with it a wave of record temperatures.

Cold records to sweep across continent

Dr. Ryan Maue posted at Twitter 2 days ago:

Many Daytime Record Low Maximums will be set on Dec 31 and Jan 1 for New Year’s celebrations — that means the afternoon high temperature for the day is really cold.”

President Trump put his patented sense of humor on display at Twitter, provoking climate alarmists:

In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!”

Tremendous snowfall

The cold snap brought with it huge, record-breaking snowfall in Erie, Pennsylvania totaling near 1.5 meters of snow, which led to photos of the sort we used to see decades ago, in the 1960s.

Toronto totally smashed the previous previous record for December 28 set in 1960, when it hit -18.9°C, recording -22°C. “It’s basically all across the country that the cold weather is entrenched, and it’s not going away quickly,” said Peter Kimbell. The CBC reports that extreme cold snap expected to linger indefinitely, citing Environment Canada.

The UK Telegraph reports the Niagara Falls has frozen over with wind chills of -89°F!

Coldest in a century

In the US, in Missouri for example, neoshodailynews.com here warns that this weekend temperatures could be the coldest in a century. Already a number of events are getting cancelled due to the extreme cold.

Criticism on blaming it on a climate trend

It’s no surprise both sides are rushing to (mis)use the event as evidence to support their side of the climate issue. Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi tweeted here that it’s a purely natural event that has nothing to do with cooling or CO2:

It’s a shame that any extreme event gets weaponized depending on agenda being pushed. Laid out for all to see in Oct real time battle test based on ace/enso relationship for early season cold. Had everything to do with 1933, 1950, 1995, 2005, 2010 ace, TYPE of La Nina idea, not CO2.”

In Germany Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski also hit both sides of the issue, taking a jab at both Trump and hockey stich chart producer Micheal E. Mann at Twitter here:

Trump’s nonsense argument against climate change (“cold weather”) counters the most famous climate researcher M. Mann with a similar argument (“warm weather”). Both are widely retweeted. Sad.”

CNN sharply criticized Trump’s humor, claiming that the President does not know the difference between climate and weather. Strange how CNN develops sudden amnesia over all the times they’ve suggested single hurricanes, droughts or tornadoes showed climate change.

Due to ocean cycles, little to do with CO2

At a recent Daily Summary, Joe called the Great Freeze a “major event” and warned the cold would spread and deepen over the coming days. He questions that CO2 could be responsible for the global warming of the past century, suspecting rather that it is due to ocean surface temperature cycles and thus increased water vapor in the air.

Joe is likely as right, or even more so, than any other expert – as only he predicted the cold way back in October using natural patterns of the past. No one else went out on that limb.

 

High Profile German Climatologist Blasts Global Warming As ‘Politicogenic’ …’Clever Propaganda’

NOTE: As this post and the last have generated much interest, they will be left at the top for another day.
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Retired German climatologist Dr. Werner Kirstein recently spoke on the topic of climate change before a packed audience at the 14th Anti-Censorship Conference (AZK) last November, blasting the politicization of climate science and taking issue on how data are (mis)handled and deceitfully presented to the public.

Image: Werner Kirstein, source: snipped here.

“Politicogenic warming”

During the presentation Kirstein comes down extremely hard on the media, claiming that German flagship news media offer the public only propaganda on certain issues. Thus in Kirstein’s view climate change has little to do with man (anthropogenic) but mostly is what he calls “politicogenic” because the science has been seriously compromised by politics, power-hungry bureaucrats and politically motivated organizations, such as the WMO, IPCC  and The World Bank.

“Sad, but that’s how it works”

Kirstein also claims that universities have been corrupted in that government funding flows only if a researchers show there is a connection between something and CO2-induced warming, no matter how absurd the subject. “It all comes down to funding,” Kirstein notes. “It’s sad, but that’s how it works.”

Climate science is totally politicized.”

Kirstein also informs the audience there are many scientists who have been very critical of climate science, and that the media in Germany supplies only half-truths on the subject, and is thus providing audiences “pure propaganda“.

Hockey stick a propaganda tool

The retired professor shows that climate change has been the norm throughout the earth’s history, and that we’ve seen even warmer periods during our current Holocene. He characterizes Prof. Michael E. Mann’s hockey stick chart as a propaganda tool. Kirstein also feels the climate models are faulty and unreliable, and that they have been manipulated to make CO2 appear as the driving climate driver.

History, he says, shows there is no correlation between CO2 and global temperature and that statements claiming otherwise are “bogus correlations”.

Even a quadrupling would benefit…

Kirstein then asserts that atmospheric CO2 concentrations have a long way to go before there would be a risk of trouble, noting that especially C3 plants would benefit immensely from a quadrupling the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Chart: Werner Kirstein, snipped from presentation at AZK conference.

Fear and fraud

Kirstein also believes that climate scientists are irresponsibly using climate science to spread fear and panic among the population, and says that Potsdam Institute Director Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber “ought to be happy he does not reside in Switzerland” because there falsely spreading fear among the public is punishable with up to 3 years in prison.

Media, scientists propagating fear

The long outspoken German professor also characterizes the notion of “climate protection” as a superstition, a concept that makes no sense. He showed the packed audience a variety of ways of how alarmist scientists and media have used a variety of bogus claims to propagate fear among the public, such as those relating to glacier retreat, polar bear population, unexpected heavy snowfalls, polar sea ice, cold winters, desertification and sea level rise.

Smear, and then run from factual discussion

The politicization has gotten so bad that Kirstein is saddened to say that today “belief in the true nature of climate variability is labelled as conspiracy theory or populism – a killer argument that allows retreat from every factual discussion.”

Kirstein summarizes:

You don’t have to be a climatologist to reveal that manmade climate change is in fact presented as a political ideology that uses the aid of clever media propaganda.”

Delightfully, Kirstein was applauded throughout the presentation, indicating that the audience is on to the scam of catastrophic “anthropogenic” global warming and all the tricks used by the media.

7 New (2017) Papers Forecast Global Cooling, Another Little Ice Age Will Begin Soon

Temperatures To Decrease 0.5°C-0.7°C

Due To Low Sunspots, Solar Minimum

Image Source: Abdussamatov, 2012

During 2017, 120 papers linking historical and modern climate change to variations in solar activity and its modulators (clouds, cosmic rays) have been published in scientific journals.

It has been increasingly established that low solar activity (fewer sunspots) and increased cloud cover (as modulated by cosmic rays) are highly associated with a cooling climate.

In recent years, the Earth has unfortunately left a period of very high solar activity, the Modern Grand Maximum.  Periods of high solar activity correspond to multi-decadal- to centennial-scale warming.

Solar scientists are now increasingly forecasting a period of very low activity that will commence in the next few years (by around 2020 to 2025).  This will lead to climate cooling, even Little Ice Age conditions.

Thirteen recently-published papers forecasting global cooling are listed below.


Sun et al., 2017

The contrast analysis between the periodic movement of the planetary system and the periodicity of solar activity shows that the two phenomena exhibit a period change rule of 179.5 years. Moreover, orderly orbits correspond to high periods of solar activity and disorderly orbits correspond to low periods of solar activity. … Therefore, a certain relationship exists between the movement of the planetary system, solar activity, and global climate change.
The movement of the planetary system can thus be used to interpret the periodic trends of the movement of the Sun and global climate change. … A period change rule of a 179.5-year cycle is observed. This period change rule is consistent with the change that takes place once every 2 centuries (about 160 to 210 years) for solar activity and global climate change.
The Sun is headed into a grand minimum, that is, a period of unusually low solar activity. A relatively low number of or nonexistent sunspots are observed during the protracted solar minimum. Since 1000 AD, there have been six protracted solar minimums, namely, the Oort minimum (1040–1080 AD), Medieval Minor minimum (1150 1200 AD), Wolf minimum (1270–1350 AD), Spörer minimum (1430–1520 AD), Maunder minimum (1620–1710 AD), and Dalton minimum (1787–1843 AD).  [A]ll the orbits of the planetary system are in disorder during the six protracted solar minimums.
The planet juncture index and heliocentric longitude are also in disorder during the six protracted solar minimums.  The numerical simulation results show a high number of sunspots and strong solar activity [warming] during the orderly orbit and a low number of sunspots, low solar activity, and the occurrence of a protracted solar minimum or little ice age during the disorderly orbit. …  [T]he results indicate that the solar minimum and little ice ages correspond to the planetary system’s disorderly orbit.

Nurtaev and Nurtaev, 2017

A reconstruction of total solar irradiance since 1610 to the present estimated by various authors an increase in the total solar irradiance since the Maunder Minimum of about 1.3 W/m² [2]. This is a huge amount of energy, taking into account the Earth’s total land mass.
More sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, by way of increased brightness of the Sun and solar wind what tend to warm the Earth. Solar activity affects the Earth in many ways, some which we are still coming to understand.
In accordance with National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) forecasting the solar cycles 24 and 25 will be very weak: averaged sunspot numbers W-35 for the solar cycle 24 and for the solar cycle 25 less than W-35 , NGDC (2009). Total Solar Irradiance will equal -1365. (23 cycle -1366). This actually will lead to a decrease of the temperature on 0.5 – 0.7°C in both averaged solar cycles, in Geneva will decrease to 1.5 °C. Temperature of air will be lower in the Northern Hemisphere. Precipitation rate in Caucasus will be more in average on 100-150 mm in dependence from location.
The World Ocean level also will be lower, due to more snow and glacier accumulation on continents.


Yndestad and Solheim, 2017

Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015.
The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065.
Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods. … Studies that employ cosmogenic isotope data and sunspot data indicate that we are currently leaving a grand activity maximum, which began in approximately 1940 and is now declining (Usoskin et al., 2003; Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008). Because grand maxima  and minima occur on centennial or millennial timescales, they can only be investigated using proxy data, i.e., solar activity reconstructed from 10Be and 14C time-calibrated data. The conclusion is that the activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago (Usoskin et al., 2003). Nineteen grand maxima have been identified by Usoskin et al. (2007) in an 11,000-yr series.
Twenty-seven grand minima are identified with a total duration of 1900 years, or approximately 17% of the time during the past 11,500 years (Usoskin et al., 2007). An adjustment-free reconstruction of the solar activity over the last three millennia confirms four grand minima since the year 1000: Maunder (1640–1720), Spörer (1390–1550), Wolf (1270–1340) and Oort (1010–1070) (Usoskin et al., 2007). The Dalton minimum (1790–1820) does not fit the definition of a grand minimum; it is more likely a regular deep minimum that is observed once per century or an immediate state between the grand minimum and normal activity (Usoskin, 2013).  Temperature reconstructions for the last millennium for the Northern Hemisphere (Ljungquist, 2010) show a medieval maximum temperature at approximately the year 1000 and a cooling period starting at approximately 1350, immediately after the Wolf minimum and lasting nearly 500 years, with the coldest period in what is referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA) at the time of the Maunder minimum. A cold period was also observed during the time of the Dalton minimum. The Maunder and the Dalton minima are associated with less solar activity and colder climate periods. In this investigation, minimum solar activity periods may serve as a reference for the identified minimum irradiations in the TSI oscillations.
All solar indices have maxima between 1920 and 1940; the majority of the maxima occur in the 1930s. The Hoyt-Schatten irradiance model has been calibrated and extended with the newest version of ACRIM TSI observations (e.g. Scafetta and Willson, 2014, Fig. 16); it is employed in this analysis. In the following section, this reconstruction is referred to as TSI HS. A mostly rural Northern Hemisphere composite temperature series 1880–2013 shows strong correlation with the TSI-HS reconstruction, which indicates a strong solar influence on the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere (Soon et al., 2015). … A visual inspection of the TSI wavelet spectrum reveals the dominant periods in the TSI data series in the time window between 1700 and 2013. The long wavelet period has a maximum in 1760, 1840, 1930, and 2000, with a mean gap of approximately 80 years.

 Lüdecke and Weiss, 2017

The Sun as climate driver is repeatedly discussed in the literature but proofs are often weak. In order to elucidate the solar influence, we have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean G7 over the last 2000 years. The Fourier spectrum of G7 shows the strongest components as ~1000-, ~460-, and ~190 – year periods whereas other cycles of the individual proxies are considerably weaker. The G7 temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, medieval, and present optima as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. We have constructed by reverse Fourier transform a representation of G7 using only these three sine functions, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7 [global temperature over the last 2000 years]. The three cycles are also found dominant in the production rates of the solar-induced cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be, most strongly in the ~190 – year period being known as the De Vries/Suess cycle. By wavelet analysis, a new proof has been provided that at least the ~190-year climate cycle has a solar origin.
G7 [global temperature over the last 2000 years], and likewise the sine representations have maxima of comparable size at AD 0, 1000, and 2000. We note that the temperature increase of the late 19th and 20th century is represented by the harmonic temperature representation, and thus is of pure multiperiodic nature [it is of natural solar origin].
It can be expected that the periodicity of G7, lasting 2000 years so far, will persist also for the foreseeable future. It predicts a temperature drop from present to AD 2050, a slight rise from 2050 to 2130, and a further drop from AD 2130 to 2200, upper panel, green and red curves).


Zharkova et al., 2017

Using a summary curve of two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations derived with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) from synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 as a proxy of solar activity, we extrapolate this curve backwards three millennia revealing 9 grand cycles lasting 350-400 years each. The summary curve shows a remarkable resemblance to the past sunspot and terrestrial activity: grand minima – Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD), Wolf minimum (1280-1350 AD), Oort minimum (1010-1050 AD) and Homer minimum (800 900 BC); grand maxima – modern warm period (1990-2015), medieval warm period (900-1200 AD), Roman warm period (400-10 BC) and others. We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries.
We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. … One of the examples of fitting incorrectly the oscillating function with a linear regression approach is shown by Akasofu (2010) (see her Fig. 9), when explaining the modern era recovery of the Earth from the little ice period and the incorrect use of a linear part of the temperature variations for the extremely incorrect prediction of the terrestrial temperature growth in the next century.

Stozhkov et al., 2017

One of the most important problems facing humanity is finding the physical mechanism responsible for global climate change, particularly global warming on the Earth. … Summation of these periodicities for the future (after 2015) allows us to forecast the next few decades. The solid heavy line in Fig. 1 shows that cooling (a drop in ΔT values) is expected in the next few decades.
Figure 2 shows the dependence between the annual average changes ΔT in the global temperature in the near-surface air layer and charged particle flux N in the interval of altitudes from 0.3 to 2.2 km. We can see there is a connection between values ΔТ [temperature] and N [charged particle flux]: with an increase in cosmic ray flux N, the values of changes of global temperature decrease. This link is expressed by the relation ΔT = –0.0838N + 4.307 (see the dashed line in Fig. 2), where the ΔT values are given in °C, and the N values (in particle/min units) are related to the charged particle flux measured at an altitude of 1.3 km. The correlation coefficient of the line with the experimental data is r = –0.62 ± 0.08. … Our results could be connected with the mechanism of charged particle fluxes influencing the Earth’s climate; it includes, first of all, the effect charged particles have on the accelerated formation of centers of water vapor condensation, and thus on the increase in global cloud cover. The total cloud cover is directly connected with the global temperature of the near surface air layer.


Page, 2017

The coming cooling: Usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future, unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities.
Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60 ± year and, more importantly, 1000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver are discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak – inversion point – in the RSS temperature trend in about 2004. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made.
If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.
The global millennial temperature rising trend seen in Figure 11 from 1984 to the peak and trend inversion point in the Hadcrut3 data at 2003/4 is the inverse correlative of the Tropical Cloud Cover fall from 1984 to the Millennial trend change at 2002. The lags in these trends from the solar activity peak at 1991 (Figure 10) are 12 and 11 years, respectively. These correlations suggest possible teleconnections between the GCR flux, clouds, and global temperatures.
Unless the range and causes of natural variation, as seen in the natural temperature quasi-periodicities, are known within reasonably narrow limits, it is simply not possible to even begin to estimate the effect of anthropogenic CO2 on climate. Given the lack of any empirical CO2-climate connection reviewed earlier and the inverse relationship between CO2 and temperature [during the Holocene, when CO2 rose as temperatures declined] seen in Figure 2, and for the years 2003.6–2015.2 in Figure 4, during which CO2 rose 20 ppm, the simplest and most rational working hypothesis is that the solar ‘activity’ increase is the chief driver of the global temperature increase since the LIA.


Torres and Guzmán, 2016 

Conclusions Based on our results, we propose the use of the Wolf’s Number Oscillation Index (WNOI) – as a more uniform alternative to the ONI – in the range over 30 and below -30. The analysis of the material presented and the arguments discussed allows us to define a possible relationship between phenomena related to Solar Cycle, the ENSO, climatic conditions, as well as some criteria for the establishment of public policies for preservation and remediation of the environment in the long run. We can conclude that solar activity oscillations impact the earth climatic conditions to such a extent that they become measurable only in the long run. The magnitude of the Solar Cycle – from 7 to 17 and a mean of 11.2 years – seems to support this statement. Based on the similarities of the Solar Cycles 5 and 24 we can expect a longer period of cold weather for the years 2022 y/o 2034, corresponding to the Solar Cycles 24 and 25.

Sanchez-Sesma, 2016

This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450).
Solar activity (SA) has non-linear characteristics that influence multiple scales in solar processes (Vlahos and Georgoulis, 2004). For instance, millennia-scale solar oscillations have been recently detected, like those of about 6000 and 2400 years, by Xapsos and Burke (2009) and Charvátová (2000), respectively, with important and interesting influences in the near, past and future climate. These millennialscale patterns of reconstructed SA variability could justify epochs of low activity, such as the Maunder minimum, as well as epochs of enhanced activity, such as the current Modern Maximum, and the Medieval maximum in the 12th century.
We can conclude that the evidence provided is sufficient to justify a complete updating and reviewing of present climate models to better consider these detected natural recurrences and lags in solar processes.

Evans, 2016

Four manifestations of unconventional climate influences are identified, each with at least as much effect on surface temperature as the direct heating effect of changes in total solar irradiance (TSI): external-driven albedo; countervailing cooling during TSI peaks, implied by the absence of corresponding peaks in the surface temperature record (the “notch”); the long-term sensitivity of surface warming to TSI increases; and the delay of ∼11 years between changes in underlying or smoothed TSI and the corresponding changes in surface temperature.
We hypothesize these are all manifestations of a single force whose exact mechanism is unknown but whose crucial properties can be deduced: “Force X” modulates the Earth’s albedo, and lags TSI by one sunspot cycle or half the ∼22-year cycle of the Sun’s hydromagnetic dynamo. A second, alternative hypothesis is of “force N” for the notch and “force D” for the delayed force causing the other three manifestations. The notch-delay solar model can explain the global warming of the last few decades and centuries in terms of force X/D. Several solar indicators including TSI peaked 1986, but surface warming continued until 1998, which is explained by the delay.
The notch-delay hypothesis predicts sustained and significant global cooling starting sometime in the period 2017 to 2022, of 0.3°C but perhaps milder (TSI estimates vary), as force X/D falls off in response to the marked decline in underlying TSI from around 2004—one of the three biggest and fastest falls in TSI since sunspot records began in 1610.

Abdussamatov, 2015 

A long-term negative deviation of the Earth’s average annual energy balance from the equilibrium state is dictating corresponding variations in it’s the energy state. As a result, the Earth will have a negative average annual energy balance also in the future. This will lead to the beginning of the decreasing in the Earth’s temperature and of the epoch of the Little Ice Age after the maximum phase of the 24-th solar cycle approximately since the end of 2014.
The influence of the consecutive chain of the secondary feedback effects (the increase in the Bond albedo and the decrease in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to cooling) will lead to an additional reduction of the absorbed solar energy and reduce the greenhouse effect. The start of the TSI’s Grand Minimum is anticipated in the solar cycle 27±1 in 2043±11 and the beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age for the past 7,500 years around 2060±11.
Thus, the long term variations of the solar constant (allowing for their direct and secondary impacts, with the latter being due to feedback effects) are the major and essential cause of climate changes because the Earth’s climate variation is a function of longterm imbalance between the solar radiation energy incoming into the upper layers of the Earth’s atmosphere and Earth’s total energy outgoing back to space.


Mörner, 2015     

By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. During the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Spörer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809- 1821)the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.

Lüdecke et al., 2015

The Earth’s climate shows a rather regular oscillation of ∼ 200 year period during the last millennia. However, frequency, phase, and strength of the oscillation are found to vary in different time series of temperatures and for different times (see Figs. 4–6, and 5 8). Nonetheless, the relative historic stability of the cycle suggests that the periodic nature of the climate will persist also for the foreseeable future.
Figure 9 shows the Tsine representation from AD 1800 to AD 2100 derived from the ∆Tsine representation by a π/2 phase shift.  It gives correctly the 1850–1900 temperature minimum and shows a temperature drop from present to  AD 2080, the latter comparable with the minimum of 1870, as already predicted in the studies (Steinhilber and Beer, 2013; Liu et al., 2011) on the grounds of solar activity data alone.

328,000 German Poor Households Saw Electricity Switched Off in 2016 …Millions More Threatened!

Germany’s energy poverty is about to get worse, as poor people are threatened with being put out in the cold by the country’s green energies.

Electricity prices “higher than they have ever been”

German news weekly Stern here reports that “electricity prices will rise further at the start of the year” and that “there is no relief in sight with electricity prices”.

According to the Verivox-consumer price index, the price of electricity for a “representative household” with three persons and an annual consumption of 4000 kilowatt-hours was 28.20 euro-cents per kilowatt-hour in 2017, some 0.77 cents more than a year earlier, Stern reports. “At the end of the current year power was never so expensive.”

On January 1, 2018, the mean price will rise to 28.44 cents a kilowatt-hour.

German electricity prices are among the world’s highest, and are in large part directly due to the country’s shoddily executed Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) and EEG feed-in act, which mandates that highly unstable, inefficient and expensive wind and solar energy be forced-fed into the power grid in place of fossil-fuel generated electricity.

The rising prices of German electricity are another blow to lower income families and the poor. Meanwhile rich land and property owners who have the luxury of leasing the space for installing wind and solar systems are making money by the fistful. Social critics have called the scheme “the biggest transfer of wealth from bottom to top ever.

328,000 saw their power cut off in 2016

Citing the German Grid Agency, German aid organization Caritas here reports of 328,000 “carried out power disconnections” and over 6 million threatened power service cut-offs in 2016.

In cooperation with the ZEW (Centre for European Economics), Caritas determined in a survey that it is poor households who are the hardest hit.

 

Media Silence: Flurry Of Recent Papers Show Warming Likely Will Lead To LESS STORM ACTIVITY!

What follows are 6 recent studies presented by Lüning and Vahrenholt, which dump cold water on the claim storms will get more frequent and intense.

The studies fly in the face of a recent Nature editorial piece, one filled with the usual worn out alarmist propaganda language of climate doom we’ve been seeing for over a quarter century. The editorial claims some scientists have already found the link between “weird weather” and greenhouse gases.

Again it’s back to the medieval witch-hunt days when witches were blamed and burned for weather-related disasters.
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New model simulation results: tropical storms will be more seldom, less intense in the future

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Whenever a hurricane strikes, there are always some climate activists who claim to know the exact cause: climate change!

And they are sure that in the future there’s going to be a lot of trouble. Stop what you’re doing, abstain from everything, and beg for forgiveness! You’re headed to hell, you wretched CO2 sinners. Pay up and repent!

Fortunately there is a scientific side, which unfortunately rarely ever gets covered by the media. The truth is that everything appears far less spectacular than what many would have us believe.

On October 4, 2017 a study by Yoshida et al was published. It presented the results produced by simulations of tropical storms and their future development. According to the models, the number of tropical storms on a global scale will drop by 33%.

Moreover there will be a significant reduction in storms of the especially harsh categories 4 and 5. The latter is especially remarkable because for a long time it was believed that the number of storms would fall, but that the intensity would increase. The new results show clearly that they will in fact a decrease. Abstract:

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations
Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000 year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4 K surface warming climates with a 60 km global atmospheric model. The global number of TCs decreases by 33% in the future projection. Although geographical TC occurrences decrease generally, they increase in the central and eastern parts of the extra tropical North Pacific. Meanwhile, very intense (category 4 and 5) TC occurrences increase over a broader area including the south of Japan and south of Madagascar. The global number of category 4 and 5 TCs significantly decreases, contrary to the increase seen in several previous studies. Lifetime maximum surface wind speeds and precipitation rate are amplified globally. Regional TC activity changes have large uncertainty corresponding to sea surface temperature warming patterns. TC-resolving large-ensemble simulations provide useful information, especially for policy making related to future climate change.”

Murakami et al. 2014 already had projected fewer tropical storms for the future:

Influence of Model Biases on Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Frequency of Occurrence
The influence of model biases on projected future changes in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones (FOCs) was investigated using a new empirical statistical method. Assessments were made of present-day (1979–2003) simulations and future (2075–99) projections, using atmospheric general circulation models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The models project significant decreases in global-total FOCs by approximately 6%–40%; however, model biases introduce an uncertainty of approximately 10% in the total future changes. The influence of biases depends on the model physics rather than model resolutions and emission scenarios. In general, the biases result in overestimates of projected future changes in basin-total FOCs in the north Indian Ocean (by +18%) and South Atlantic Ocean (+143%) and underestimates in the western North Pacific Ocean (−27%), eastern North Pacific Ocean (−29%), and North Atlantic Ocean (−53%). The calibration of model performance using the smaller bias influence appears crucial to deriving meaningful signals in future FOC projections. To obtain more reliable projections, ensemble averages were calculated using the models less influence by model biases. Results indicate marked decreases in projected FOCs in the basins of the Southern Hemisphere, Bay of Bengal, western North Pacific Ocean, eastern North Pacific, and Caribbean Sea and increases in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical central Pacific Ocean.”

Also Kim et al. 2014 saw fewer tropical storms for the future:

Tropical Cyclone Simulation and Response to CO2 Doubling in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model
Global tropical cyclone (TC) activity is simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Climate Model, version 2.5 (CM2.5), which is a fully coupled global climate model with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km for the atmosphere and 25 km for the ocean. The present climate simulation shows a fairly realistic global TC frequency, seasonal cycle, and geographical distribution. The model has some notable biases in regional TC activity, including simulating too few TCs in the North Atlantic. The regional biases in TC activity are associated with simulation biases in the large-scale environment such as sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and vertical velocity. Despite these biases, the model simulates the large-scale variations of TC activity induced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation fairly realistically. The response of TC activity in the model to global warming is investigated by comparing the present climate with a CO2 doubling experiment. Globally, TC frequency decreases (−19%) while the intensity increases (+2.7%) in response to CO2 doubling, consistent with previous studies. The average TC lifetime decreases by −4.6%, while the TC size and rainfall increase by about 3% and 12%, respectively. These changes are generally reproduced across the different basins in terms of the sign of the change, although the percent changes vary from basin to basin and within individual basins. For the Atlantic basin, although there is an overall reduction in frequency from CO2 doubling, the warmed climate exhibits increased interannual hurricane frequency variability so that the simulated Atlantic TC activity is enhanced more during unusually warm years in the CO2-warmed climate relative to that in unusually warm years in the control climate.”

In fact there is not a single hurricane, typhoon or other cyclone scientist who holds a different view on this. Also Walsh et al. 2015 foresee a falling number of tropical storms for the future:

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes
While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.”

So why will tropical storms become less frequent in the future? One study by Lim et al. 2015 found that a cooling of the middle and upper troposphere leads to more storms, and not warming:

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS-5 Model
The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model at 0.25° horizontal grid spacing. The years 2005 and 2006, characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum wind speed greater than 60 m s−1 and the minimum sea level pressure reaching ~940 mb, which are never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of ~50 km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10°C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid to upper troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.”

Also Sugi et al. 2015 were able to show that tropical storms in colder climates occurred more frequently and not so in warmer ones:

More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?
Recent review papers reported that many high-resolution global climate models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, although the mechanism of the reduction is not yet fully understood. Here we present a result of 4K-cooler climate experiment. The global TC frequency significantly increases in the 4K-cooler climate compared to the present climate. This is consistent with a significant decrease in TC frequency in the 4K-warmer climate. For the mechanism of TC frequency reduction in a warmer climate, upward mass flux hypothesis and saturation deficit hypothesis have been proposed. The result of the 4K-cooler climate experiment is consistent with these two hypotheses. One very interesting point is that the experiment has clearly shown that TC genesis is possible at sea surface temperature (SST) well below 26°C which has been considered as the lowest SST limit for TC genesis.”

Summary: storm alarmists are rapidly becoming an endangered species. No longer does the hypothesis hold because the intensity of storms as well will weaken in the future.

This is for some inconvenient results, which in any case need to be recognized.

 

Snowcover Increasing Since 1950s, But Newsweek’s Reality Is That Christmas Snow May Soon Be History

Image Source: 22 December 2017 Newsweek

Christmas Day has arrived.

With the advent of this cheery holiday comes a somber warning from Newsweekpurveyor of climate doom.

“[A]s global temperatures rise due to climate change, snow on Christmas Day could increasingly become a rarity—even a distant memory.”

Contrary to Newsweek‘s claims, however, snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has been increasing in recent decades.

Image Source: NOAA

In the Southern Hemisphere, snow and ice have been expanding in the Antarctic region for centuries (Thomas et al., 2017), and Antarctica is projected to continue gaining ice mass in the decades to come (Lenaerts et al., 2016).

Apparently the journalists penning climate alarm scenarios that warn readers white Christmases are on the way out in the NH haven’t been keeping up with the latest scientific publications.


Changnon, 2017

Heavy 30-day snowfall amounts were evaluated to identify spatial and temporal characteristics east of the Rockies in the United States during the period 1900-2016. An extensive data assessment identified 507 stations for use in this long-term climate study. The top 30-day heavy snowfall amount and the average of the top five 30-day heavy snowfall amounts were examined. … The northern Great Plains, Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast experienced more top five periods [more snow] in the second half of the 117-year period [1958-2016], where most of the southern states experienced top five periods throughout the study period. Examining extremes at periods beyond the daily event and less than the season contributes to our knowledge of climate and provides useful information to snow-sensitive sectors.


Andrews et al., 2016

Long-term observations of increasing snow cover in the western Cairngorms [Scotland] … For 13 consecutive winters between 2002 and 2015, the date for the onset of continuous winter snow cover, and subsequent melt, was recorded on slopes of north and north-easterly aspect at altitudes between 450m and 1111m amsl. Results show that the period of time during which snow is continuously present in the catchment has increased significantly by 81 (±21.01) days over the 13-year period, and that this is largely driven by a significantly later melt date, rather than earlier onset of winter snow cover.


Coleman and Schwartz, 2017

Data revealed 713 blizzards over the 55 years, with a mean of 13 events per season. Seasonal blizzard frequency ranged from one blizzard in 1980/81 to 32 blizzards in 2007/08Federal disaster declarations resulting from blizzards totaled 57, with more than one-half of them occurring in the twenty-first century. Storm Data attributed 711 fatalities during the 55-yr study period, with an average of one individual per event; 2044 injuries were reported, with a mean of nearly three per blizzard. Property damage totaled approximately $9.11 billion in unadjusted dollars, with an approximate mean of $12.6 million per storm. Seasonal blizzard frequencies displayed a distinct upward trend, with a more substantial rise over the past two decades. … The modeled increase in blizzard activity showed a nearly fourfold upsurge between the start [1960] and end [2014]of the study period at 5.9 and 21.6 blizzards, respectively. On the basis of current model trends, the expected blizzard total for a season is 32 blizzards by 2050; uncertainty s on whether the linear trend will continue or stabilize in the near future.


Wang et al. 2017

No evidence of widespread decline of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau over 2000–2015 … Our results show no widespread decline in snow cover over the past fifteen years and the trends of snow cover phenology over the TP has high spatial heterogeneity.


Ice Stable, Thickening, Growing In Recent Years


Goel et al., 2017

Ice rises are a useful resource to investigate evolution and past climate of the DML coastal region. We investigate Blåskimen Island ice rise, one of the larger isle-type ice rises at the calving front of the intersection of Fimbul and Jelbart Ice Shelves, using geophysical methods. … Using the Input-Output method for a range of parameters and column setups, we conclude that Blåskimen Island has been thickening over the past nine years [2005-2014]. Thickening rates cannot be determined precisely, but ensemble results show that thickening rate averaged over the ice rise varies between 0.07 m a−1 and 0.35 m a−1 [per year]. On longer timescales, we speculate that  the summit of Blåskimen Island has been stable within several kilometers at least in the past ∼600 years but no longer than several millennia.


Oliva et al., 2017

However, a recent analysis (Turner et al., 2016) has shown that the regionally stacked temperature record for the last three decades has shifted from a warming trend of 0.32 °C/decade during 1979–1997 to a cooling trend of − 0.47 °C/decade during 1999–2014. … This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP [Antarctic Peninsula], including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.


Wang et al., 2016

“Pamir–Karakoram–Western-Kunlun-Mountain (northwestern Tibetan Plateau) Glacier Anomaly” has been a topic of debate due to the balanced, or even slightly positive glacier mass budgets in the early 21st century. Here we focus on the evolution of glaciers on the western Kunlun Mountain and its comparison with those from other regions of the Tibetan Plateau. The possible driver for the glacier evolution is also discussed. Western Kunlun Mountain glaciers reduce in area by 0.12 % yr−1 from 1970s to 2007–2011. However, there is no significant area change after 1999. Averaged glacier thickness loss is 0.08 ± 0.09 m yr−1 from 1970s to 2000, which is in accordance with elevation change during the period 2003–2008 estimated by the ICESat laser altimetry measurements. These further confirm the anomaly of glaciers in this region. Slight glacier reduction over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau may result from more accumulation from increased precipitation in winter which to great extent protects it from mass reductions under climate warming during 1961–2000. Warming slowdown since 2000 happening at this region may further mitigate glacier mass reduction, especially for the early 21st century.


Zhang et al., 2016

Our results indicated that the glacier area of MAKT [Muztag Ata and Kongur Tagh] decreased from 1018.3 ± 12.99 km2 in 1971/ 76 to 999.2 ± 31.22 km2 in 2014 (–1.9 ± 0.2%). Weak area shrinkage of glaciers by 2.5 ± 0.5 km2 (0.2 ± 0.1%) happened after 2000 and the period 2009–2014 even saw a slight expansion by 0.5 ± 0.1 km2 (0.1 ± 0.0%). The glaciers in this region have experienced an overall loss of –6.99 ± 0.80 km3 in ice volume or –0.15 ± 0.12 m water equivalent (w.e.) a–1 from 1971/76 to 2013/14. The mass budget of MAKT was –0.19 ± 0.19 m w.e. a−1 for the period ~1971/76–1999 and –0.14 ± 0.24 m w.e. a−1 during 1999–2013/2014. Similar to previous studies, there has been little mass change in the Pamir over recent decades despite such uncertainties. Glacier mass change showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity, with strong mass loss on debris-covered glaciers with an average of –0.32 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1 from the 1970s to 2013/14.


Sobota et al., 2016

This study investigated the surge dynamics of Aavatsmarkbreen, a glacier in Svalbard and its geomorphological impact based on remote sensing data and field observations. The main objective was to analyse and classify subglacial and supraglacial landforms in the context of glacial deformation and basal sliding over a thin layer of thawed, water-saturated deposits. The study also focused on the geomorphological evidence of surge-related sub- and supraglacial crevassing and glacier front fracturing. From 2006 to 2013, the average recession of Aavatsmarkbreen was 363 m (52 m a−1). A subsequent surge during 2013–2015 resulted in a substantial advance of the glacier front of over 1 km and an increase in its surface area of more than 2 km2


Antarctica Ice Sheet Will Continue Gaining Mass


Lenaerts et al., 2016

We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ∼1∘ in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280±131 Gtyear−1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB [surface mass balance] of about +70 Gt year−1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.


Thomas et al., 2017

Our results show that SMB [surface mass balance] for the total Antarctic Ice Sheet (including ice shelves) has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt decade−1 since 1800 AD representing a net reduction in sea level of  0.02 mm decade−1 since 1800 and 0.04 mm decade−1 since 1900 AD.  The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula (∼ 75 %) where the annual average SMB during the most recent decade (2001–2010) is 123 ± 44 Gt yr−1 higher than the annual average during the first decade of the 19th century.


Pittard et al., 2017

We suggest the Lambert-Amery [Antarctica] glacial system will remain stable, or gain ice mass and mitigate a portion of potential future sea level rise over the next 500 years, with a range of +3.6 to -117.5 mm GMSL-equivalent.

Merry Christmas From NoTricksZone

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Norman RockwellU.S. National Archives and Records Administrationpublic domain image.

It’s been a good year for the NoTricksZone, with traffic in 2017 up around 25% compared to a year earlier. This is mostly thanks to the outstanding contributions by guest writer Kenneth Richards.

Kenneth has shown that there is a large body of inconvenient science out there, which has led to some lively discussions here.

I’d say the most tumult was unleashed by Kenneth’s: 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming. This piece was picked even up by Breitbart and Powerline, among others. As the saying goes: The more they holler, the better things are going for yourself.

Let’s keep them hollering the whole year 2018. All the best!

Pierre
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PS: Hope the above image does not offend anyone as I didn’t bother to put it through the political correctness test.

Model Failure…New Papers Show Climate Models Unreliable…At Times “Near-Zero Performance”!

At the German Die kalte Sonne site here, Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt present another two recent papers showing that models are failing to simulate the climate and cannot be used to make prognoses.
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What are temperature prognoses really worth? Climate models fail completely in the all-important reality tests

[German text translated/edited by P Gosselin]

Climate models have had to take a lot of criticism lately. Neither were they able to predict the slowed warming of the last 15 years, nor are they able to reproduce the natural warm periods of the last few thousand years.

A team led by Christopher O’Reilly has checked over how well the most common climate models have reproduced the winter temperatures of the northern hemisphere over the past 100 years. The scientists were astonished to find the prognosis performance for the middle of the 20th century was almost zero. That’s a bitter setback. The models appear to be missing something. In view of the glaring deficits, is it really acceptable that policymakers to derive policy from such models and to make globally decisions based on them? What follow is the abstract of the paper, which appeared in June 2017:

Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century
Seasonal hindcast experiments, using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are analyzed for Northern Hemisphere winters from 1900 to 2010. Ensemble mean Pacific/North American index (PNA) skill varies dramatically, dropping toward zero during the mid-twentieth century, with similar variability in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) hindcast skill. The PNA skill closely follows the correlation between the observed PNA index and tropical Pacific SST anomalies. During the mid-century period the PNA and NAO hindcast errors are closely related. The drop in PNA predictability is due to mid-century negative PNA events, which were not forced in a predictable manner by tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Overall, negative PNA events are less predictable and seem likely to arise more from internal atmospheric variability than positive PNA events. Our results suggest that seasonal forecasting systems assessed over the recent 30 year period may be less skillful in periods, such as the mid-twentieth century, with relatively weak forcing from tropical Pacific SST anomalies.”

What follows is another example, one for the region of the tropical Pacific. In this paper Coats and Karnauskas found that the models here as well were remote from reality. The authors concluded that every model prognosis based on these models for the Pacific are hardly trustworthy. The paper appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters in October 2017:

Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?
Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.”

There many indications showing the models are overheating.

 

Major Blow To ‘Energiewende’ As Top German Economist Shows Plan Can Never Work!

Germany’s once highly promoted “Energiewende” (transition to green energies) and the country’s feed-in act have been given a grade of “F” by one of the country’s top economists, Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Hans-Werner Sinn.

Just days ago the renowned economics professor gave a presentation dubbed “How much volatile power can the power grid take?” before a packed audience in Munich:

Top German economist Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Hans-Werner Sinn says supplying Germany’s energy needs with wind and sun is “disillusionment”.

The basis of his presentation is a recent paper appearing in the European Economic Review: Buffering volatility, A study on the limits of Germany’s energy revolution.

Green energy “disillusionment”

In summary, Sinn claims it is unrealistic to believe that Germany can power itself with only wind and sun due to their immense supply volatility and that it is already a huge challenge in itself just to replace coal, oil and gas for producing electricity. Coal, oil and gas for electricity make up only a puny 12.8% of German total energy demand (chart 6:25-mark). He says:

As far as the rest, you can dream about it, but you cannot do it. […] It was disillusionment from the very start, and it’s important that this be made very clear.”

Sinn shows just how volatile wind and solar energies in Germany are, using 2014 as an exmaple. At the time Germany had installed just over 24,000 turbines with a total rated capacity of almost 36 gigawatts:

Chart: Prof. Hans-Werner Sinn, cropped here.

However those turbines delivered on average only 5.85 gigawatts, well under 20%.

“Costs a horrendous sum of money”

The numbers are even more gruesome for solar panel installations, which of course do not function at all at night:

Chart: Prof. Hans-Werner Sinn, cropped here.

Installed in Germany in 2014 were 37.34 gigawatts of rated solar capacity. Delivered however were merely a tenth of that amount, an average of 3.70 gigawatts. What is does, says Sinn:

It costs a horrendous sum of money, reduces standard of living and blights the landscape. This simply cannot be!”

Sinn’s results are a major blow to the proponents of the German Energiewende and to the notion it is clean, cheap and reliable. As the numbers and results come in, it becoming increasingly clear that the German mega green project is turning into an embarrassing fiasco.

Sinn rhetorically asks whether it’s maybe possible to smooth the supply, i.e. using a variety of strategies such pump-storage and power-to-gas, in order to make the supply more steady, reliable and efficient. His answer is an emphatic no, saying: “It’s an Energiewende to nowhere.”

Even if Germany installed enough capacity to make its supply 100% green, 61% of the output would have to “scrapped” because there would be no use for it, Sinn shows, using a chart at the 55-min. mark.

Lost credibility for science

The public, media and policymakers, however, refuse to acknowledge that the German man-on-the-moon energy project is is big trouble. At his blogsite, Holger Douglas commented on Sinn’s presentation and the failure of the Energiewende:

In the ensuing discussion one of the gravest consequences of the Energiewende emerged: the credibility of science. At almost every single research institute experts have been making every effort to dodge the fundamental laws of physics and nature in order to justify the Energiewende after the fact.”

Sinn also notes he believes the cost of the Energiewende will end up far exceeding the earlier government estimate of 1 trillion euros. Moreover he says that Germany is also transforming its idyllic landscape into a large industrial park.

De-industrializing by over-industrializing

The Energiewende is one green plan that is backfiring spectacularly on a scale few could have imagined earlier. And in typical German fashion, leaders refuse to acknowledge this and appear as if they would prefer to see the country descend (once again) into ruin before admitting they’ve erred.

This is one presentation that needs to be made in English in other countries that are gung ho on going solar and wind.

New Paper: Humans Caused Central U.S. To Cool By -0.35°C Since The 1940s As Crop Yields Soared

Post-1940s ‘Agricultural Intensification’

Caused Deep Cooling, 400% Crop Growth

In a new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, three MIT scientists assert that the human influence on the climate of the Central United States is dominated by agricultural activity rather than greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Human activity has caused a significant long-term cooling trend (-0.35°C between the 1940s and 2009) and higher rainfall totals via the mechanism of “agricultural intensification” – a photosynthesis-associated increase in the air’s water vapor or humidity levels due to an explosive (400%) increase in crop production and yield since the 1940s.

The authors assert that the human-caused post-1940s cooling trend and increase in precipitation dramatically conflict with climate model expectations which project a human-caused warming trend and decreasing rainfall with the advent of increasing GHG emissions.

From all appearances, the effects of the human influence on climate is still teeming with inconsistencies and contradictions.


Alter et al., 2017

Summary

“Observations and numerical simulations both suggest that agricultural intensification has cooled temperatures and enhanced rainfall.”

Climate Models Predicated On A Driving Influence For GHG Emissions…Are Wrong 

From 1910- 1949 (pre-agricultural development, pre-DEV) to 1970-2009 (full agricultural development, full-DEV), the central United States experienced large-scale increases in rainfall of up to 35% and decreases in surface air temperature of up to 1°C during the boreal summer months of July and August … which conflicts with expectations from climate change projections for the end of the 21st century (i.e., warming and decreasing rainfall) (Melillo et al., 2014).”

“The output from this subset of CMIP5 models [climate models predicated on CO2 emissions assumptions] indicates only small changes in rainfall (between -2% and +4%) during the summer in the central United States, which are much smaller than the frequency distributions of rainfall change from both the observational data and the agricultural intensification simulations. This implies that GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions may not have been a major driver of the observed changes in summer rainfall.”

[T]he CMIP5 [climate model] results instead show an increase in temperature and a much subdued increase in specific humidity, which may be due to GHG-induced warming and subsequent increases in the water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere, respectively. Thus, it seems that GHG emissions do not contribute greatly to the regional changes in summer climate that have been observed in the central United States.”

Mechanism: More Crops = More Water Vapor = More Cooling

“Within the regional climate model, an increase in photosynthesis for cropped areas leads to a decrease in stomatal resistance within those areas. This allows more water vapor to be released to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET), specifically through transpiration. This increased flow of water out of the plants results in an increase in atmospheric moisture (humidity) over the same areas. Regarding the energy budget, the latent heat flux increases in tandem with ET, but the sensible heat flux decreases, resulting in temperature decreases over the cropped areas.”

‘Unprecedented Growth’ In Crop Productivity Since The 1940s

Over the last century, the world has experienced unprecedented growth in cropland area and productivity (Ramankutty & Foley, 1999; Pielke et al., 2011). As part of this expansive agricultural development, the Corn Belt of the central United States – one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world (Guanter et al., 2014; Mueller et al., 2016) – experienced major increases in both corn and soybean production. For example, from 1950 to 2010, the amount of corn harvested annually in the Corn Belt increased by 400%, from 2 billion to 10 billion bushels (NASS, 2016).” 

“[S]ince vast tracts of land worldwide have experienced similar booms of agricultural productivity in recent decades, it is possible that other areas of the world have experienced similar climatic effects due to agricultural intensification, especially in light of recent observational connections between extreme temperatures and agricultural intensification in other intensely cropped regions (Mueller et al., 2017).”

AMERICA UNSHACKLED…EMANCIPATING ITSELF AS TRUMP ACCOMPLISHES!

Have you ever wondered why the opposition and European elitists are freaking out?

Many can no longer cope with the reality. Trump has performed extremely well under the most hostile of circumstances, and accomplished a lot:

Now the huge tax reform bill moves to the President’s desk for signing. The tax burden is about to get a lot lighter. Also countries across the world are going to face pressure to follow suit and reduce the burdens placed on their own citizens.

The planet has gone from the bleak prospect of global high taxes and extreme climate regulations, to one of low taxes and plentiful, cheap and clean energies.

It’s:

Goodbye to Paris Climate Accord.

Goodbye to wide-open borders.

Goodbye to shackles of globalism and elitists. Eat your heart out, Soros.

America and its workers are becoming unchained from the iron chains of global government.

 

Breaking: Northwest Pacific Volcanic Eruption Fires Ash 15 Km Into The Atmosphere!

There’s been a volcanic eruption in Northwest Pacific at Bezymianny Volcano, reports dutchsinse.com here. Already an aviation colour code RED has been issued.

The spectacular, Mount St. Helens-like eruption has even been posted on YouTube:

The 2882-meter Bezymianny Volcano in Russia in the northwest Pacific blew on December 20, 2017, and the eruption was so powerful that it is reported to have blasted ash 15 km up into the atmosphere.

According to KVERT here, strong ash explosions up to 49,200 ft (15 km) are occurring at this time and ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft.

Here’s another view of the eruption, which shows successive explosive blasts the seem to have obliterated part of the mountain.

Video: Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey RAS (http://emsd.ru/)

Impact on global climate?

There”s been no report on the eruption’s volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and so it is difficult to asses the possible consequences on global climate. The eruption is located at 55°N, and so its effect would not be as pronounced as one of similar magnitude occurring near the equator.

The Bezymianny volcano is part of the Russian Kamchatka volcanoes.

Satellite photo, by Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory, public domain.

TASS here just reported “ash as high as 17 km above sea level“.

More technical information available here at KVERT. Background information here:

 

German Energy Policy Gone Lost: “Energiewende Has Failed,” Writes Leading Environmentalist

In an opinion piece at the Mittel Bayerische daily, Harry Neumann, National Chairman of the environmental group Naturschutzinitiative e.V. declares Germany’s Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) a failure and writes: “The wind power industry and nature protection cannot be reconciled.”

Moreover Germany’s EEG green energy feed-in act is doing more harm than good, writes Neumann: “The EEG is impeding the research of environmentally compatible technologies.”

Neumann also notes that despite having installed close to 30,000 wind turbines, Germany’s “CO2 emissions are not dropping, but rather are rising again.” He adds:

During the expansion of renewable energies, they failed from the start to set impact limits too protect nature, species, forests and landscapes.”

He also blasted what he calls the “political-industrial complex“, which he says has nothing to do with nature and climate protection, “but rather with the full exploitation of billions in subsidies“.

In Neumann’s view, the wind industry and nature protection “cannot be reconciled” and thus calls for the immediate repeal of the EEG feed-in act.

Veteran journalist: German energy policy fraught with absurdities

On another note, veteran German science journalist Michael Miersch explains in an interview conducted by Dr. Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Foundation the sheer absurdity and widespread damage German renewable energies are having on the environment.

When asked about the current status and dialogue surrounding the Energiewende, Miersch tells Peiser:

I would like the debate to be less ideological and to be held with less moral rigor. Nowadays you cannot criticize the Energiewende without being put into a corner and being accused of not caring about global climate change.”

He cites the U.S. as a model of how to go about energy policy:

If you think about the US for example, they have achieved a lot in terms of CO2 reduction with gas power plants. There are very few gas power plants in Germany. They are building hardly any new ones.”

 

25 Papers: Natural Forcing Explains Why The Globe’s Oceans Have Been Recently Warming AND Cooling

 

In assessing the global-scale trends in near-surface (0-20 m) ocean temperatures between 1900 and 2010, Gouretski et al. (2012) determined that the world’s oceans warmed by about 1.1°C between 1900 and 1945 (~0.24°C per decade), but then only warmed by an additional net 0.3°C between 1945 and 2010 (~0.046°C per decade), including a cooling trend between 1945 and 1975.

The early 20th century warming was therefore about 4 to 5 times greater both in magnitude and rapidity as the post-1945 warming.

“Both time series show a temperature increase from 1900 to about 1945, a slight decrease to the mid-1970s, and a temperature rise to the end of the record.”

Image: University of Hamburg, Gouretski et al., 2012

Interestingly, Gouretski et al. (2012) also point out that large regions of the oceans have been cooling since the 1990s.

“Decadal mean SST and 0–20 m layer anomalies calculated relative to the reference decade 2001–2010 give evidence of the general warming of the global ocean since 1900. However, large regions of the oceans have experienced cooling since the 1990s. Whereas cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific ocean is associated with frequent La Nina events in the past decade, the cause of the cooling within the Southern Ocean remains unknown.”

According to Riser and 26 co-authors (2016), the globe’s oceans have warmed in some places, cooled in others, and the overall net change has been a warming of a little less than 0.2°C (0-1000 m) since about 1950, or about 0.03°C per decade.

The achievement of a few tenths of a degree of added warmth over the course of the last 6 ½ decades has been realized largely because the regions of the world where the oceans have been warming have slightly exceeded the cooling regions in volume.

The net difference between the warming and cooling trends for the globe is oddly referred to as global warming even though the warming trends have not been global, but regional.

Riser et al., 2016

“Most regions of the world ocean are warmer in the near-surface [0-700 m] layer than in previous decades, by over 1° C in some places. A few areas, such as the eastern Pacific from Chile to Alaska, have cooled by as much as 1° C, yet overall the upper ocean has warmed by nearly 0.2° C globally since the mid-twentieth century.”  

According to climate models and anthropogenic global warming theory, it has been expected that a long-term, gradually rising warming trend in the world-wide ocean would follow the trends associated with the rise of CO2 emissions.

The the oceans have not cooperated.

Instead, the world’s regional oceans have followed a decadal-scale variability, with pronounced warming and cooling episodes.   The lack of consistency with climate models has thus led scientists to conclude that it is “very difficult to determine whether significant anthropogenic change in [regional 0-2000 m ocean temperatures] have occurred” (Yashavaev and Loder, 2017).

Below are several examples of the wide swaths of the Earth where ocean cooling (or non-warming) has been ongoing for at least the last decade to last several decades, including the North Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Southern Ocean, and Indian Ocean.


North Atlantic


Yashayaev and Loder, 2017

“As a result of this intermittent recurrence of intensified Labrador Sea Water formation, the annual average temperature and density in the region’s upper 2000m have predominantly varied on a bi-decadal time scale, rather than having a long-term trend as might be expected from anthropogenic climate change. … [I]ntermittent recurrence of enhanced deep convection periods in the Labrador Sea, and the associated formation of major LSW classes, are contributing to a predominant decadal-scale variation in hydrographic properties which makes it difficult to determine whether anthropogenic changes are occurring. … This strong, apparently natural, decadal-scale variability makes it very difficult to determine whether significant anthropogenic changes in LSW formation and properties have occurred.”


Robson et al., 2017     

In the 1990s anomalously strong ocean heat transport convergence dominates the SPG [Subpolar Gyre, North Atlantic] warming. … The cooling of the SPG [Subpolar Gyre, North Atlantic] after 2005 is dominated by a reduction in ocean heat transport convergence, particularly in the eastern SPG. The reduced ocean heat transport is largely due to a weakening ocean circulation.  By focusing on three independent case-studies of North Atlantic decadal change events the analysis presented here gives further support to the important role of ocean heat transport and ocean circulation in driving the observed changes in North Atlantic ocean heat content in the recent past.”


Gladyshev et al., 2017 

“After 2010, a sharp and stable freshening and cooling of SPMWs [Subpolar Mode Water] started in the eastern part of the North Atlantic. In the years 2010–2016, the mean temperature of the SPMW [Subpolar Mode Water] core in the Rockall Trough dropped by -0.73°C (-0.12°C/yr); in the Iceland Basin it dropped by -2.12°C (-0.35°C/yr), and salinity decreased by 0.12 psu (0.02 psu/yr) and 0.23 psu (0.04 psu/yr), respectively.”

Kim et al., 2017


de Jong and de Steur, 2016


Rosenthal et al., 2017


Pacific Ocean


Cheung, 2017


Wilson et al., 2017


Li, 2017     

In the Southern Ocean, the increasing trend of the total OHC slowed down and started to decrease from 1980, and it started to increase again after 1995. In the warming context over the whole period [1970-2009], the Pacific was losing heat, especially in the deep water below 1000 m and in the upper layer above 300 m, excluding the surface 20 m layer in which the OHC kept increasing through the time.”


Southern Ocean


Kusahara et al., 2017 

“In contrast to a strong decrease in Arctic sea ice extent, overall Antarctic sea ice extent has modestly increased since 1979. Several hypotheses have been proposed for the net Antarctic sea ice expansion, including atmosphere/ocean circulation and temperature changes, sea ice-atmospheric-ocean feedback, increased precipitation, and enhanced basal meltwater from ice shelves. Concomitant with this positive trend in Antarctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Southern Ocean south of approximately 45°S have cooled over this period [since 1979].”

Latif et al., 2017

“The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.”

Turney et al., 2017     

Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.”


Jones et al., 2016


Indian Ocean


Zinke et al., 2016


Yan et al., 2015


Both The Cooling And The Warming Trends For Recent Decades Follow Natural Oscillatory Patterns, Not Trends In Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions


Gong et al., 2017

“The inter-annual relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) and summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the western tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) for the period from 1979 to 2015 is investigated. The results show that the January–February–March AO [Arctic Oscillation] is significantly correlated with the June–July–August SST and SST tendency. … The multi-month SST tendency, i.e., the SST difference of June–July–August minus April–May, is correlated with the winter AO at r = 0.75.Investigation of the regional air–sea fluxes and oceanic dynamics reveals that the net surface heat flux cannot account for the warming, whereas the oceanic Rossby wave plays a predominant role. During positive AO winters, the enhanced Arabian High causes stronger northern winds in the northern Indian Ocean and leads to anomalous cross-equatorial air-flow. … The winter AO-forced Rossby wave propagates westward and arrives at the western coast in summer, resulting in the significant SST increase.”


Belohpetsky et al., 2017

It is well known that most short term global temperature variability is due to the well-defined ENSO natural oscillation (see: Wang and Fiedler, 2006). During strong El Niño events global average temperature rises by a few tenths Kelvin and reverts back subsequently. … The residual dynamics left after adjusting global surface temperature anomalies (1950-2014) for short-term variability from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic eruptions have a staircase pattern. Linear trends for three quasi-stable periods 1950-1987, 1988-1997 and 1998-2014 are near zero with nearly all warming occurring during two step-like shifts in the years 1987/1988 and 1997/1998.  A notable consequence of the staircase dynamics of recent warming is that observed temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4.5) from 1950 till 2014 could be almost reproduced as the linear sum of only two factors(!) : ENSO variability and the staircase function.”

Gong et al., 2017

“During the past three decades, the most rapid warming at the surface has occurred during the Arctic winter. By analyzing daily ERA-Interim data, we found that the majority of the winter warming trend north of 70°N can be explained by the trend in the downward infrared radiation (IR). This downward IR trend can be attributed to an enhanced poleward flux of moisture and sensible heat into the Arctic by poleward propagating Rossby waves, which increases the total column water and temperature within this region.”

He et al., 2017 

“As pointed out by Cohen et al. (2014) that continental winter SAT [surface temperature] trends since 1990 exhibit cooling over the midlatitudes. The negative trends extend from Europe eastward to East Asia, with a center of maximum magnitude to the west of the Baikal.  As reviewed above, the AO/NAO [Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation] shows an in-phase relationship with the SAT [surface temperatures] over Eurasia. … [T]he negative trend in the AO/NAO might explain the recent Eurasian winter cooling. … Additionally, the relationship between the winter AO and surface-climate anomalies in the following spring might be modulated by the 11-year solar cycle (Chen and Zhou, 2012). The spring temperature anomalies in northern China related to the previous winter AO were larger and more robust after high solar cycle winters. However, spring temperature anomalies became very small and insignificant after the low solar cycle winters. … Numerous atmospheric scientists have documented that the AO could impact significantly the climate over Europe and Far East. …  It is evident that a positive winter AO causes warmer winters over East Asia through enhancing Polar westerly jet which prevents cold Arctic air from invading low latitudes.”


Wu et al., 2017

“The enhanced warming observed in the Eastern China Coastal Waters (ECCW) during the last half-century has received considerable attentions. However, the reason for this warming is still a subject of debate. Based on four different Sea Surface Temperature datasets, we found that the most significant warming occurred in boreal winter during 1982–1998, although the warming trends derived from these datasets differ in magnitude. We suggest that the rapid warming during winter is a result of the asymmetry in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnection, through which El Niño events induce significant warming over the ECCW at its peak, whereas La Niña events fail to do the opposite that would completely reverse the trends; in addition, there were more El Niño than La Niña events during the recent decades. All these contribute to the winter warming during 1982–1998.”

Mermelstein, 2017     

[T]he 1940-1978 decrease in CONUS [continental U.S.] temperatures was caused more by the negatively trending oscillatory modes of the AMO/PDO than other factors, and the 1978-2001 increase in temperatures was caused more by the positively trending oscillatory modes of the same oscillations. The small increase, or rather stagnant nature in U.S. CONUS temps since 2001, was likely due to peaking positive modes of the AMO/PDO. In the same way that the AMO and PDO can modify the regional temperatures, we see the same types of effects on precipitation, snowfall and drought in the different regions of the U.S. … It was not until 2003 (Anastasios, Swanson, & Kravtsov, 2003, 2007) that models were created that suggested that these cycles, namely the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) synchronized with each other. Using this as a base, we can explain the major climate shifts that have occurred since scientists began collecting data in the late 1800’s: 1908, 1932, 1973, and 2000. While the most noticeable change in these shifts was on global temperature, effects on the regional, sensible weather in the U.S. were also identified in these same time frames. Through analysis it has been theorized that these shifts are caused by the oceans, and are in fact the main drivers of the climate, and the sensible weather experienced in the United States (Klotzbach & Gray, 2009).”

Fan and Yang, 2017

The wintertime Arctic temperature decreased from 1979 to 1997 and increased rapidly from 1998 to 2012, in contrast to the global mean surface air temperature [which] increased between 1979 and 1997, followed by a hiatus… A recent study suggests a possible role of the Pacific Ocean decadal oscillation in regulating wintertime climate in the Arctic (Screen and Francis 2016).  … The ‘‘greenhouse effect’’ of water vapor and clouds [CO2 not mentioned as contributing to the GHE] may amplify the effect of winds on Arctic winter climate. …  The objectives of this study are to assess how much natural–internal variability has contributed to climate changes in these [Arctic] regions from 1979 to 2012 … In summary, the correlation analyses presented in this paper shows a natural mode of Arctic winter variability resulting from the Nordic–Siberian seesaw of meridional winds […] is associated with two-thirds of the interannual variance [cooling-warming] of winter-mean Arctic temperature between 1979 and 2012, and possibly contributed a substantial fraction of the observed Arctic amplification [1998-2012 warming] in this period.”


Piecuch et al., 2017

“The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume.  [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.”


Cheung, 2017

The sea surface temperature (SST) of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) exerts primary control on global surface temperature (e.g. Halpert and Ropelewski 1992; Wigley 2000) and regional climate (e.g. Ropelewski and Halpert 1987) through different modes of climate variability including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). With such profound impacts, it is important to understand the evolution of SST in EEP, specifically the dynamics of these climate modes. Rigorous studies over the past decades have shed insights on these two climate modes. ENSO is known to affect regional and global climates on interannual timescales. During an El Niño event, a weakening of easterly trade wind stimulates propagation of Kelvin waves from the western equatorial Pacific to the EEP, which in turn reduces the slope of the thermocline and suppresses upwelling. The decrease in pressure gradient reinforces the weakening of the trade winds through the Bjerknes feedback and ultimately creates an El Niño condition (e.g. Collins et al. 2010). The reorganization of the ocean and the atmosphere due to El Niño raises the global mean surface temperature (e.g. Halpert and Ropelewski 1992; Wigley 2000) and alters regional climate, for example causing drought in Australia (Cai et al. 2011), pluvial in Southwest United States (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987), and changing tropical cyclone frequencies in the Western North Pacific (Camargo and Sobel 2005; Chan 1985). The opposite spatial pattern and teleconnections happen during a La Niña event.”

Wang et al., 2017

“The driving forces of climate change were investigated and the results showed two independent degrees of freedom —a 3.36-year cycle and a 22.6-year cycle, which seem to be connected to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle and the Hale sunspot cycle, respectively. … Solar variability has been shown to be a major driver of climate in central Europe during the past two millennia using Δ14C records. Furthermore, this result is essentially in good agreement with the findings of Scafetta e.g. refs 171819, who found that the climate system was mostly characterized by a specific set of oscillations and these oscillations (61, 115, 130 and 983 years) appeared to be synchronous with major astronomical oscillations (solar system, solar activity and long solar/lunar tidal cycles).”

Review Of Climate Models Show They Are Unreliable For Forecasting…”So Much Disappointment”

Before getting to the subject of climate models, first two small points worth bringing up:

Eco-Trumpism spreading

Firstly, it appears that Trump’s policies are sending powerful political impulses worldwide. For example ultra-alarmist German climate and energy site klimaretter here bemoans that leading socialist Sigmar Gabriel seems to be turning into an “Eco-Trump”. Gabriel actually had the audacity to remind Germany that economics need have as great as or greater priority than climate change does, something causing a bit of political indigestion at klimaretter.

Fears of German companies moving to USA

Secondly, German business daily Handelsblatt here cites a study that tells us Germany will likely see jobs lost due to Trump’s tax reforms. It is feared that a number of German companies may opt to flock over to USA to take advantage of lower taxes, cheaper energy and less stringent regulation. Germany helping MAGA!
===================================

Climate models totally fail in practice: Can atmospheric circulation be simulated at all?

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated / edited by P Gosselin)

A large part of international climate policy is based on prognoses delivered by climate models. Here the key players act as if they are highly robust and thus serve as a good basis for policy decision making. But what hardly ever makes it through the media filter is the rather hectic discussion taking place behind the scenes among climate modelers.

In September 2014 Theodore Shepherd of the University of Reading summarize the entire extent of the problems in an article published in Nature Geoscience. The models simply fail to grasp the atmospheric circulation. And Shepard feels that will remain the case also in the future:

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections
The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.”

Also accounting for solar irradiance is causing a lot of problems, as Zhou et al. 2015 point out:

On the incident solar radiation in CMIP5 models
Annual incident solar radiation at the top of atmosphere should be independent of longitudes. However, in many Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, we find that the incident radiation exhibited zonal oscillations, with up to 30 W/m2 of spurious variations. This feature can affect the interpretation of regional climate and diurnal variation of CMIP5 results. This oscillation is also found in the Community Earth System Model. We show that this feature is caused by temporal sampling errors in the calculation of the solar zenith angle. The sampling error can cause zonal oscillations of surface clear-sky net shortwave radiation of about 3 W/m2 when an hourly radiation time step is used and 24 W/m2 when a 3 h radiation time step is used.”

Currently the author teams for the planned 6 IPCC climate report are getting together. Are the considerable problems surrounding climate models resolved? No sign of that. On October 11, 2017, Stony Brook University set off the alarms: The models still are not running properly! And the German press prefers to keep silent about this. The Stony Brook press release follows:

Study Reveals Need for Better Modeling of Weather Systems for Climate Prediction
Computer-generated models are essential for or scientists to predict the nature and magnitude of weather systems, including their changes and patterns. Using 19 climate models, a team of researchers led by Professor Minghua Zhang of the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, discovered persistent dry and warm biases of simulated climate over the region of the Southern Great Plain in the central U.S. that was caused by poor modeling of atmospheric convective systems – the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere. Their findings, to be published in Nature Communications, call for better calculations in global climate models.

The climate models analyzed in the paper “Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections,” included a precipitation deficit that is associated with widespread failure of the models in capturing actual strong rainfall events in summer over the region. By correcting for the biases, the authors found that future changes of precipitation over the US Southern Great Plain by the end of the 21st Century would be nearly neutral. This projection is unlike what has been predicted as a drying period by the majority of current climate models. The correction also reduces the projected warming of the region by 20 percent relative to projections of previous climate models.

“Current climate models are limited by available computing powers even when cutting-edge supercomputers are used,” said Professor Zhang. “As a result, some atmospheric circulations systems cannot be resolved by these models, and this clearly impacts the accuracy of climate change predictions as shown in our study.” Professor Zhang and colleagues believe climate models will become more accurate in the coming years with the use of exsascale supercomputing, now in development worldwide.”

Already in 2014 Mauri et al complained of enormous discrepancies between the real and simulated developments for precipitation and temperature in Europe 5000 years ago. Modelling of the past, i.e. the calibration, didn’t work at all. With so much disappointment one has to ask where all the confidence surrounding models being reliable forecasters comes from.

The paper’s abstract follows:

The influence of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a data–model comparison
The atmospheric circulation is a key area of uncertainty in climate model simulations of future climate change, especially in mid-latitude regions such as Europe where atmospheric dynamics have a significant role in climate variability. It has been proposed that the mid-Holocene was characterized in Europe by a stronger westerly circulation in winter comparable with a more positive AO/NAO, and a weaker westerly circulation in summer caused by anti-cyclonic blocking near Scandinavia. Model simulations indicate at best only a weakly positive AO/NAO, whilst changes in summer atmospheric circulation have not been widely investigated. Here we use a new pollen-based reconstruction of European mid-Holocene climate to investigate the role of atmospheric circulation in explaining the spatial pattern of seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies. We find that the footprint of the anomalies is entirely consistent with those from modern analogue atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong westerly circulation in winter (positive AO/NAO) and a weak westerly circulation in summer associated with anti-cyclonic blocking (positive SCAND). We find little agreement between the reconstructed anomalies and those from 14 GCMs that performed mid-Holocene experiments as part of the PMIP3/CMIP5 project, which show a much greater sensitivity to top-of-the-atmosphere changes in solar insolation. Our findings are consistent with data–model comparisons on contemporary timescales that indicate that models underestimate the role of atmospheric circulation in recent climate change, whilst also highlighting the importance of atmospheric dynamics in explaining interglacial warming.”

 

Merkel Joins Trump In Blowing Off “One Planet” Climate Summit …German Leftists/ Greens Fume

The extreme German leftists Die Linke (The Left) Party in Germany issued a press release blasting Angela Merkel’s decision not to personally attend the “One Planet Summit” in Paris.

Apparently climate change is not an issue important enough for the German chancellor to devote her time to.

Merkel “a total no-show”

German Leftist Party climate and energy politician Lorenz Gösta Beutin said:

Climate-politically Merkel is a total no show: In Paris the head of the German government could have sent a powerful signal in support of implementing the UN Climate Treaty, and against the unspeakable anti-climate protection course of President Donald Trump, who announced the USA’s withdrawal from the Climate Accord and requested renegotiations. Instead the federal government sent Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks, who had to explain that Germany would resoundingly miss its self-stated climate targets.”

International “faux pas”

The “One Planet Summit” in Paris was held by France, the United Nations and the World bank. Reutin commented further:

That Angela Merkel did not attend the climate conference – where over 50 state and government heads from all around the world wanted to push ahead the historic Paris climate protection accord from two years ago – is a disgrace par excellence. After an embarrassing appearance at the UN climate conference in Bonn, where the chancellor only delivered empty words instead of concrete measures, the self-proclaimed climate chancellor demonstrated a faux pas on the international stage.”

The neoliberal belief held by French President Emmanuel Macron that the free market and private capital would put the brakes on global warming and remove the damage to climate change caused by man and nature is faulty. Capitalism functions only through unbridled growth and the profit of a few. It is the cause, not the solution, of humanity-problem climate change.

The LINKE (LEFTISTS) demand the introduction of a financial transaction tax, whose revenue would in part be allocated to southern countries as climate change support funds. Also the industrialized countries must meet their obligations and pay 100 billion dollars annually  into the Green Climate Fund beginning in 2020, and do so without offsetting already existing development aid funds.“

 

More Research Points To “Temperature Decline In The Coming Decades And Centuries”

Geologist Dr. Norman Page left a comment which I’ve decided to upgrade to a post. In it he writes solar and La Nina observations fit well with his recent paper showing that climate is controlled by natural orbital and solar activity cycles.

Dr. Page is among a growing number of scientists who share the general view that natural solar and oceanic cycles are mostly driving the climate, just as they always have in the past.

Warming has already peaked, cooling ahead

And as a result, Dr. Page believes that the millennial temperature cycle peaked at about 2003/4 and the earth is now in a cooling trend, which will last until about 2650. Read background here.

Recently he published a paper titled: “The coming cooling: usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers.

Models “unfit for purpose”

His paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. A number of papers have been published over the recent years pointing out that climate models have been far short of reliable.

In the paper’s abstract Dr. Page writes that the Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and that it is not possible to forecast the future unless there’s a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities.

“Temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries”

He presents evidence specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and the all important 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors), which he and other scientists maintain are so obvious in the temperature record.


Fig. 8, HadSST3 temperature anomaly: “Over the last 135 years an approximate 60 year periodicity is clearly present in the temperature data.”

He projects cyclic trends forward and predicts a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries.

Large divergence by 2021

He also estimates the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling, writing: “If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of his working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by his paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.”

The 1991 millennial solar activity peak is seen in Figure 10 neutron data.

Dr. Page notes that there is a varying lag between the solar activity peak and the corresponding peak in the different climate metrics because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. In the abstract he writes:

It has been independently estimated that there is about a 12-year lag between the cosmic ray flux and the temperature data – Fig. 3 in Usoskin (28).”

Page says this correlates with the millennial temperature peak seen at 2003/4 in the RSS data in Fig 4,

Fig 4. RSS trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2003 (14)

Page also says that since the strong El Nino peak anomaly of 2016, the temperature has “declined rapidly” and:The cooling trend is likely to be fully restored by the end of 2019.”

======================================

Dr. Norman J. Page   
Email: norpag@att.net
DOI: 10.1177/0958305X16686488
Energy & Environment
0(0) 1–18
(C )The Author(s) 2017
journals.sagepub.com/home/eae

5 New Papers: Climate And Weather Events Become LESS Erratic And Severe During Warming Periods

 Cooling, Not Warming, Leads To

  Weather and Climate Instability 

Image Source: Loisel et al., 2017

1. Significant Decreasing Trend In Severe Weather Since 1961

Zhang et al., 2017

Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.


2. Most Frequent Climate Instability During Global Cooling/Reduced CO2 Periods

Kawamura et al., 2017

Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.


3. Hurricane Activity Is ‘Subdued’ During Warm Periods (1950-2000)

Heller, 2017

The hurricane analysis conducted by Burn and Palmer (2015) determined that hurricane activity was subdued during the [warm] Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~900-1350 CE) and became more produced during the [cold] Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1450-1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between ~1850 and ~1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (~1950-2000 CE). In general, the results of this study corroborate these findings … [W]hile hurricane activity was greater during the LIA, it also had more frequent periods of drought compared to the MCA (Burn and Palmer 2014), suggesting that climate fluctuations were more pronounced in the LIA compared to the MCA. The changes in the diatom distribution and fluctuations in chl-a recorded in this study starting around 1350 also indicate that variations in climate have become more distinct during the LIA and from ~1850-1900.

[C]limate variability has increased following the onset of the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE), however it is difficult to distinguish the impacts of recent anthropogenic climate warming on hurricane activity from those of natural Atlantic climate regimes, such as ENSO.


4. Surface Warming Weakens Cyclone Activity

Chen et al., 2017

Results indicate that the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia exhibits decadal changes in the period of 1979–2013 and is significantly weakened after early 1990s. …  Moreover, there is a close linkage between the weakening of cyclonic activity after the early 1990s and the nonuniform surface warming of the Eurasian continent. Significant warming to the west of Mongolia tends to weaken the north–south temperature gradient and the atmospheric baroclinicity to its south and eventually can lead to weakening of the midlatitude cyclone activity over East Asia.


5. More Hydroclimatic Variability During Cold PeriodsModels Say Warming Causes More Instability, So The 21st Century Will Be Like The Little Ice Age, With More Instability/Megadrought

Loisel et al., 2017

Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a ‘warm LIA’ climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. … Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ~950–1400 CE) is often used as an analog for 21stcentury hydroclimate because it represents a warm (and arid) period. The MCA appears related to general surface warming in the Northern Hemisphere, prolonged La Niña conditions, and a persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode. It has been referred to as a stable time interval with ‘quiet’ conditions in regards to low perturbation by external radiative forcing. In this study, we demonstrate that the Little Ice Age (LIA, ~1400–1850 CE) might be more representative of future hydroclimatic variability than the conditions during the MCA megadroughts for the American Southwest, and thus provide a useful scenario for development of future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies.

Weak Solar Activity And La Nina Forebode Cooling Temperatures For The Months Ahead

The Sun in November 2017

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated and edited by P Gosselin)

In November the sun was unusually quiet with respect to activity. The observed sunspot number (SSN) was merely 5.7, which is only 14% of what is typically normal for month number 108 into the cycle. The current cycle number 24 began in December 2008. The sun was completely spotless 19 of 30 days in November.

At the end of the month some activity appeared, but only at a very low level. The following chart depicts the current cycle’s activity:

Figure 1: The monthly SSN values for the current solar cycle 24 (red) 108 months into the cycle, the curve for the mean of the previous 23 cycles (blue), and the similar solar cycle number 5 (black).

The next chart shows a comparison of all observed solar cycles thus far:

Figure 2: The monthly accumulated anomalies of the cycles up to 108 months into the cycle. Cycle number 24 has taken third place for the most inactive.

The situation thus remains unchanged: such a weak solar cycle has not been witnessed in 200 years. It is anticipated with quite high certainty that also the upcoming solar cycle number 25 will be about as weak, because the sun’s polar fields are about as strong as they were during the minimum between cycle number 23 and cycle number 24.

The very weak solar north pole so far has recovered significantly over the past few months since June. What this means now and for the future can be seen graphically at the chart posted here. You can find the latest information at www.solen.info/solar.

LaNina is here

An update to our last post here is surely of interest. We were sure of a La Nina by the end of December, and in the meantime the Australian Bureau of Meteorology officially announced a La Nina in its most recent bulletin. The current model forecast shows continued falling sea surface temperatures along the equatorial eastern Pacific until about February, 2018:

Figure 3: The model for El Nino/La Nina in the Pacific, Source: NOAA. All forecasts point to a moderately strong La Nina event until spring. A powerful La Nina such as the one observed in 2011/12 is currently not projected by the models (which incidentally did not even forecast a La Nina just a few months ago).

The impacts on global temperatures lag behind by about 3 to 4 months, and so we should expect a La Nina dip by spring.