Europe’s Colossal Refugee Shame …Leaders Let 15,000 Perish At Sea, Freeze To Death, Since 2009

When it comes to the treatment and handling of refugees, it turns out that European leaders are the very last people who should be preaching morality to President Trump. Their total incompetence have cost thousands of refugee lives, and the situation is only getting much worse. They own it.

A refugee from Afghanistan holds his young son and looks at the sea after reaching the shores of Lesvos island, Greece, in this 2015 file photo.   © UNHCR/Achilleas Zavallis, Source: UNHCR here.

Whopping 15,000 refugees have perished since 2009

The truth is that Europe’s handling of refugees coming from North Africa and the Middle East is a disaster of colossal dimensions. Since 2009, approximately 15,000 refugees have perished in the Mediterranean, right at Europe’s very doorstep.

Anger aimed at delays at JFK airport

Yet, Europe’s and America’s mainstream media, politicians and the hodge-podge of Soros-funded protest groups remain completely oblivious to this historic tragedy. Instead they are now rushing to condemn President Trump and his executive order, and expressing “outrage” over a few dozen refugees being held up inside an airport for a few hours.

What could Trump possibly learn from Europe on how to handle refugees?

The answer is absolutely nothing…unless he is looking for a case study on how to drown thousands of them each and every year. When it comes to “welcoming” refugees, Europe’s approach has been lethal and bungled like nothing we have ever seen.

Refugee crisis exploded after Obama/Europe meddled

Looking at the annual refugee deaths on the Mediterranean since 1990, the number each year until 2012 stayed relatively low, fluctuating at around 100 deaths each year. However, starting in 2013, just after the start of the Arab Spring, the Libyan Civil War, the Syrian Civil War (all orchestrated with the direct involvement of the US government and Europe), and the US withdrawal from Iraq, refugee deaths in the Mediterranean surged to 477 for the year — all without a finger of protest from activists.

From 1990 – 2013, a total of 3188 refugees died trying to reach Europe. With the beginning of Obama’s 2nd term, the number exploded. Source: borderdeaths.org.

More than ten-fold jump, to 3500 drownings

In 2014 the number jumped more than ten-fold, with over 3500 deaths of migrants/refugees crossing the Mediterranean being reported, according to the UNHCR.

Number of Mediterranean refugee deaths since 2011. Chart source: Refugees/Migrants Emergency Response – Mediterranean“, UNHCR.

Europe allows 15,000 refugee deaths at its door

The death toll then climbed to a new record in 2015, to 3735, and then surged again to more than 5000 last year (2016).

Since the Obama/Europe-supported Arab Spring began in 2009, approximately 15,000 refugees have died trying to reach Europe over the Mediterranean. Europe has let it all happen.

Ignored and dithered

European leaders were well aware of the crisis long ago, yet did little to effectively respond to it — seemingly hoping the situation would somehow just go away on its own. Few, if any, efforts were undertaken to make passage for the refugees safer. Instead European politicians dithered and fell over themselves like pigs on a skating rink.

A system to better ensure safe passage of the refugees never got set up. The sinkings and drownings continued by the hundreds. There were no angry protests aimed at governments to stop the carnage. Pleas for help from Italy, Greece and Turkey were played down or flat out ignored. Activists and leaders even tried to blame it all on “climate change”!

Recall: this is the very continent that today is expressing its outrage at President Trump, because a few dozen refugees got held up at a New York airport for a few hours.

It wasn’t until 2015, after hundreds of thousands of refugees had poured into Germany, did Angela Merkel and other European leaders move to take the refugee problem a bit more seriously — and it wasn’t because Merkel wanted to do so, but because she had been forced to do so. Europe had totally lost control of the refugee flow, which they themselves had initiated through their disastrous Middle East and North Africa destabilization rampage over the past years.

226 already drowned, froze to death, in first January fortnight

Now that 2016 has come to a close and the first month of 2017 is behind us, one could expect Europe to have perhaps gained some degree of control over the disaster by now. Unfortunately you would be very wrong to think so. Europe’s refugee catastrophe has in fact worsened and become the shame of the world.

According to The Independent, already more than 200 migrants have drowned and froze to death in the first half of January 2017 alone. According to the Independent:

At least 226 asylum seekers have lost their lives attempting to reach Europe so far this year – more than double the figure for the same period in 2016…”

My God, freezing to death in “compassionate and moral” Europe. This doesn’t deserve outrage and protest?

Despite all the charges and outrage launched at Trump, it is clear that it is in fact Europe that is totally incompetent and nowhere near a solution for the refugee crisis. Refugees keep drowning by the hundreds. They’ll never fix it.

This glaring incompetence is precisely why the European Union is being increasingly rejected, and why Donald Trump was elected. There is a growing sense that the ones who created the huge mess will only make it worse. It’s time for Europe to get out of the way and to work with Trump, and not against him, and to do so for the sake of thousands of future refugee lives.

 

Robust Evidence NOAA Temperature Data Hopelessly Corrupted By Warming Bias, Manipulation


Dr. Thomas Karl recently retired as Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In 1989, Karl’s stated position was that global temperatures cooled between 1921 and 1979.  


Source: RealClimateScience

“Analysis of warming since 1881 shows most of the increase in global temperature happened before 1919 – before the more recent sharp rise in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, said Thomas Karl of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.   While global climate warmed overall since 1881, it actually cooled from 1921 to 1979, Karl said.”


Today, not only has the 1921-1979 cooling disappeared from NOAA’s official temperature record, it has been replaced by a +0.45°C warming trend during that nearly 60-year period.



1. Early NOAA Graphs Confirm Strong Cooling Through The 1970s – Before It Was Removed


As recently as the early 1980s, it was still widely accepted in the scientific community (National Academy of Sciences, hundreds of scientific papers) that the Northern Hemisphere had undergone a dramatic warming of nearly 1°C from about 1900 to 1940, and then, after the 1940s, the trend reversed to severe cooling, fomenting the 1970s global cooling scare.


Agee, 1980


NOAA’s Karl had also supplied plenty of evidence to support the original (1989) position that a global cooling trend persisted through the late 1970s.  Graphs appeared in his papers with strong warming trends through the 1920s and 1930s and then cooling trends from the 1940s to the 1970s.   For example, the NOAA graph of U.S. annual temperatures showed the cooling trend from 1921-1979, and even indicated there had been no net warming in the U.S. in the 90 years between 1895 and 1985.


Karl, 1988

U.S.A. (Annual Average)


Compare the graph above to the one below.  By starting their trend in 1901 rather than 1895 (as above from Karl, 1988), Karl and Jones (1989) could claim there was a net temperature increase of 0.16°C during the 20th century, or as of 1901-’84.  All of the 84-year warming occurred prior to the 1940s, and it only warmed overall because the post-1940s cooling didn’t quite eclipse the pre-1940s warming when the trend line started six years later (1901 vs. 1895).  The end point of the second trend (1984) is apparently 0.16°C warmer than where the first trend line began (1901).


Karl and Jones, 1989

“Temperature trends indicate an increasing temperature from the turn of the century to the 1930s but a decrease thereafter.”

“Over the twentieth century (1901-84) … the overall temperature trend in the United States during this time period, +0.16°C/84 yr.”

U.S.A. (Annual Average)

 

Eastern Australia

Japan

South Africa


2. Case Example: NOAA Removes Strong Post-1940s Cooling Trend For Indiana (U.S.A.)


Like the hemispheric trend, this dramatic warming and cooling trajectory was found in the temperature record for much of the United States — before it was removed.  For example, Karl (NOAA) produced a graph showing there was a cooling of multiple degrees (°C) from the 1930s-1950s to the 1960s-1970s in central Indiana.  In fact, highest to lowest yearly anomalies reached more than 10°C, a warming-cooling separation of 18°F between the 1931 anomalous warmth and the mid-1970s cooling .


Karl and Riebsame, 1984


Today, NOAA has eliminated the multiple degrees of warming and cooling for Indiana, almost completely flattening out the earlier steep warming and cooling trends.


3. NOAA (1988, 1989): Artificial Heat From Urbanization Accounts For All 20th Century Warming


During the late 1980s and early 1990s, Karl was the lead author or co-author of several papers that affirmed urban temperature bias (locating temperature measuring stations near asphalt, buildings, airports, machinery, etc.) had compromised the U.S. temperature record and produced a substantial artificial warming.  The artificial warming bias identified in the temperature record was found to be larger than the overall temperature trend itself.  In other words, according to NOAA, all or nearly all the U.S. 20th century warming (through the mid-1980s) could be attributed to artificial (non-climatic) heating due to the effects of urbanization.


Karl and Quayle, 1988

“Karl et al., 1988) has shown that at some ‘sun belt’ cities in the West, the rise of temperature that can be attributed to the urban heat island is as much as 0.3 to 0.4°C per decade. In the East, the rise is over 0.1°C per decade. … The artificial warming in the primary station network, relative to the climate division data, is nearly 0.17°C over the past 34 years [since ~1950]. Such trends are at least as large as any of the observed trends over the United States (Karl, 1988) or the globe (Jones and Wigley, 1987).”


Karl and Jones, 1989

“Results indicate that in the United States the two global land-based temperature data sets have an urban bias between +0.1°C and +0.4°C over the twentieth century (1901-84).  This bias is as large or larger than the overall temperature trend in the United States during this time period, +0.16°C/84 yr.”

At present, only rough estimates of the potential impacts of urbanization can be given.  This includes an urban bias in the Hansen and Lebedeff (1987) [NASA] data over the United States between 0.3°C and 0.4°C over the 20th century, which is larger than the overall trend in the United States over this period. … To our knowledge, the United States is the only large area of the globe where the magnitude of this bias has been thoroughly studied.”

“The magnitude of this urban bias in two global, land-based data sets was found to be a substantial portion of the overall trend of global and regional temperatures.”

Rapid increases in urbanization can lead to [warming] biases in the annual mean temperature at urban locations of over 1°C (Karl et al., 1988; Karl and Jones, 1989).”


Kukla, Gavin, and Karl, 1986

“Meteorological stations located in an urban environment in North America warmed between 1941 and 1980, compared to the countryside, at an average rate of about 0.12°C per decade.  Secular trends of surface air temperature computed predominantly from [urban] station data are likely to have a serious warm bias. … [W]e compared trends of the 34 urban/rural station pairs…urban stations show a warming with respect to the countryside throughout most of the year.  The average annual difference of the trends is about +0.11°C per decade [of non-climatic warming due to urban location].The average difference between trends [urban siting vs. rural] amounts to an annual warming rate of 0.34°C/decade.  Values from May through August averaged 0.44°C/decade while December showed the smallest difference. The reason why the warming rate in subset D is considerably higher [may be] that the rate may have increased after the 1950s, commensurate with the large recent growth in and around airports. … Our results and those of others show that the urban growth inhomogeneity is serious and must be taken into account when assessing the reliability of temperature records.”


4. NOAA (1989): Early Instrumental Records Have Up To 1°C Biases, Non-Uniform Calibration Standards


Karl et al., 1989

Calibration errors are serious problems with early temperature records, some dating back to the seventeenth and 18th century.  Early thermometers consisted of a U tube with one open end and required pressure corrections.  Varying temperature measurement scales and instrument shelters were used.  Readings from these instruments are often difficult to interpret.  Temperature measurements over the last 100-140 years have been refined so that the accuracy and the precision of the measurement is at least [within] 0.5°C.”

Changes in observing schedules and practices have been shown to produce biases in the mean temperature of up to 1°C (Bigelow, 1909; Schaal and Dale, 1977; Karl et al., 1986). Even today, there is not an international standard for the calculation of mean daily temperature, and archived data often include averages based on different formulae for calculating monthly means.”


5. NOAA (1989): Poor Coverage In Our Land Data – 1/3rd Of Land Area Has No Thermometer Within 1,200 Kilometers


Karl et al., 1989

“[There was] a large increase in [temperature measuring] stations from the late nineteenth century to the 1960s and a subsequent decline after the 1960s.”


6. NOAA (1989): ‘Uncomfortable Level Of Uncertainty’ In Our Sea Temperature Data – Poor Coverage, Large Measurement Biases


Karl et al., 1989

“[T]here are large geographic areas of the oceans which have not been adequately sampled, and even today, only two thirds of the global oceans are sampled in NOAA’s Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS).  The tropical areas of the Pacific Ocean have few observations until the 1950s, and oceanic regions poleward of 40°S (which account for 15% of the world surface area) have few observations available until recent decades.  Even when observations are available for an individual grid box, there may be only one or two values for a given month, and adjustments may be required to convert the value to a midmonth or midarea equivalent. … [T]he poor spatial coverage in the tropical Pacific and southern oceans adds an uncomfortable level of uncertainty regarding long-term (50-100 years) changes of ocean temperatures.”

“For marine air temperatures, biases exist for a variety of reasons.  Ships have become larger over the years, and the height of the deck above sea level has increased.  As ships have become larger, their absorption of insolation has increased and caused a [warm] bias with respect to daytime observations of marine air temperature.”

“For sea surface temperature measurement, biases are known to be caused by changes in the vessel used to hold the seawater in which the temperature is measured.  Wooden buckets, metal buckets, canvas buckets, and intake tubes for engine cooling have all been used to measure sea surface temperature since the midnineteenth century. … The magnitude of the warm bias [in measuring sea temperatures] obtained using the modeling approach is similar to that obtained by comparison with the nighttime marine air temperatures (several tenths of a degree Celsius).  Differences among the types of buckets (for which the timing is uncertain) can translate into an uncorrected or uncorrectable bias of 0.1°C-0.2°C in the sea surface temperatures over the past century.”

“Oceanic measurements of sea temperature (i.e., data from research cruises) are … very poorly distributed for long-term global studies.  … In summary, with so few long-term observations of temperature over the oceans, particularly in the southern hemisphere, and the differing measurement practices, global and hemispheric time series extending into the nineteenth century should be used circumspectly.”


7. NOAA (1989): Surface Temperatures Can Be Raised Artificially By Moving/Eliminating Stations From Rural Locations


Karl et al., 1989

Changes in station location, instruments, instrument shelters, and the height of instruments above the ground have led to biases of 1°C or more at many stations (Karl and Williams, 1987).”


8. NOAA (2012): To Be Reliable (‘Fact’), NOAA Temperature Records Should Be ‘Same’ As Satellite Records


Prior to the publication of his highly criticized 2015 paper that made the the nearly two-decade-long pause in global temperatures ‘disappear’ (by adjusting sea surface temperature data – cooling the past and warming the present), NOAA’s Karl was quoted saying (2012) that NOAA’s surface temperature trends should show the “same kind of a trend” as satellite temperatures do.  The agreement between NOAA surface instrumental data and satellite data would indicate that the temperature trend is fact, and not an assertion (his word choices).

However, with the adjustments to the data, the satellite records do not show the “same kind of a trend” as the NASA (NOAA) records do:


Source: WoodForTrees

9. NOAA (1989): Comprehensive Coverage From Satellites ‘Striking’ – Will Likely Be Our Main Temperature Data Source


Back in 1989, NOAA’s Karl asserted that satellite data would soon be the “primary source” for climate change monitoring due to the “striking” coverage (85% of the Earth’s surface, observations every 30 minutes) satellites provide relative to the thermometric record.  In fact, he concluded that the eventual “marriage” of land data from temperature stations with satellite data would make the overall temperature record much more reliable.


Karl et al., 1989

“[S]pecial data sets from experiments and research projects are becoming available to climate researchers.  Some special data sets are also available from research satellites (such as the NOAA satellites) are likely to be the primary source of long-term data for monitoring climate change.  The operational satellite data record is now long enough to consider the statistical evaluation of changes of various climate variables.”

Compared to ground-based data, the most striking characteristic of satellite data is its comprehensive geographic coverage. … Under normal circumstances, five geostationary satellites provide coverage for about 85% of the Earth’s surface.  … The geostationary satellites make routine observations every 30 min and are capable of scanning limited latitude bands at shorter intervals.”

“The marriage of space-based satellite observations with traditional surface-based observations with traditional surface-based observations offers the potential to significantly reduce our uncertainties in the climate record.”


10. How They Do It: NOAA In-Fills Unmeasured Land (And Sea) Regions With Made-Up Temperatures


The exposed “Climategate” e-mails from overseers of surface temperature data (for example, Phil Jones of the Climate Research Unit) have authentically established that there is a history of scientists making up data and “correcting” cooling temperatures (the “decline”) to satisfy an agenda.  The e-mails reveal that scientists are not above artificially removing “the 1940s blip” (that showed too much warming to be compatible with models) or the post-1960s trend (cooling, the “decline”) and making up their own “raw” temperatures when they can.  Here are a few sample excerpts from the purloined exchanges.



Because the temperature data coverage is so exiguous (i.e., Southern Hemisphere ocean temperatures are “mostly made up”), NOAA has to in-fill the vast non-measured land regions (that contain no thermometers) across the globe with their own numbers derived from modeling.

And because modeling presumes that anthropogenic CO2 emissions drive temperatures, and emissions have exploded since the mid-1940s, there is a modeling bias to cool down the 1920s to 1940s warmth, heat up the 1940s to 1970s cooling trend, and exaggerate the most recent warming.  This way, the overall trend will look more and more like the linear emissions post-1940s “hockey stick” trend, and less like the undulating pattern that was scientifically acceptable until the 1980s.

The land area with adequate temperature records available (containing both maximum and minimum uniform daily temperatures) is still woefully absent in regions such as Greenland, Antarctica, Africa, South America, Central America, and most of Asia, Canada, and Scandinavia.  The only regions with good coverage are the U.S., Europe, Australia, and China.  This doesn’t even include the dearth of coverage for the ocean surfaces, which is even worse.

In a NCDC/NOAA analysis by Peterson and Vose (1997), it was revealed that raw data with the uniform maximum/minimum daily temperatures available from the Global Historical Climatology Network have improved in the last century, but not enough to provide confidence in available global-scale records.


Peterson and Vose, 1997 (NCDC/NOAA)


Indeed, NOAA’s lack of adequate observational land coverage – real temperature measurements – is illustrated below.  The gray areas effectively contain no thermometric record, meaning the temperatures in those regions must be made up.  Keep in mind that the red-blue colored squares used to represent real measurements tend to exaggerate the coverage, as the square sizes depict a larger range of coverage than actual.



Conclusion


The global temperature dataset available from NOAA suffers from massive and uncorrected warm biases (as preferred by its purveyors), woefully inadequate contemporary measurement coverage, and even worse historical coverage (with inherently non-uniform data collection methodologies).  Consequently, a substantial portion of the temperature data available from NOAA should be regarded as artificial and untrustworthy.  Those who faithfully uphold NOAA’s global temperature dataset as “truth” will need to address its demonstrable speciousness – and why they are inclined to believe in it anyway.

Fake Climate Science Exposed: Lake Malawi In Fact 120 Meters Lower During Little Ice Age!

More fake science in the German press, coming from UNICEF
==============================================

Water level of Lake Malawi was 120 meters lower during Little Ice Age

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Lake Malawi. Photo credit: Stefan7 at the German language Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0.

UNICEF is currently collecting donations for Malawi, as reported by the German Passauer Neue Presse (PNP) as a UNICEF director, Johannes Wedenig, reports in an interview:

PNP donation drive: “Climate change bis going to hit Malawi really hard”

WEDENIG: I came to the country in the middle of the crisis in June. To get a first impression, I looked at the food situation and visited some villages. It quickly became clear to me: This crisis is built on earlier crises, on the devastating flood of 2015 and past droughts. With each one, the capacity of the people shrinks and their vulnerability increases.

[…]

PNP: Would Malawi be prepared at all for a new flood?

WEDENIG: The government has learned and is logistically better prepared. Also UNICEF is prepared. Our stocks are filled with supplies. But there’s one thing you cannot prepare for: the vulnerability of man is constantly increasing. That’s why the focus is on enhancing their resilience and our structural processes. Climate change is going to hit Malawi hard. It may appear as a contradiction when one looks at the map and sees that half of the country is covered by Lake Malawi. But that does not mean there’s enough water available. The lake is retreating and the forests are being chopped down increasingly. If the water from the rivers and lakes are exploited without sustainable planning, then it will backfire on the people.”

First it is right that there is an emergency in Malawi, and readers here are encouraged to donate.

However, linking the situation in Malawi to climate change and indirectly blaming donators in Germany is ethically questionable. Lakes and rivers in Malawi have always undergone natural variation (for example read here).

A team of scientists led by Thomas Johnson researched and reconstructed the lake level history over the past 700 years and found something astonishing: Between 1570 and 1850 the lake level was in fact 120 m lower than it is today, and during the 14th and 15th centuries. Read the paper’s abstract in 2001 in Geology:

Decadal record of climate variability spanning the past 700 yr in the Southern Tropics of East Africa
Biogenic silica profiles in varved sediments from northern Lake Malawi (Nyasa), East Africa, span the past 700 yr and reflect past primary productivity in the overlying waters. On a centennial scale this has been influenced by lake level and a consequent shift in the location of high diatom productivity within the lake basin. Primary production was higher during the Little Ice Age, an arid period from about A.D. 1570 to 1850, when lake level was about 120 m lower than during the previous three centuries or the past 150 yr.”

So what could be behind the natural rainfall dynamic, which is unknown to UNICEF? What follows is some recommended reading:

Germany’s Flagship Media/Top Pols Fanning Trump Hatred. Veiled Attempt To Trigger An Assassin?

Germany’s elite establishment is having a very difficult time coming to terms with the outcome of USA’s democratic process. The country’s ZDF national public television recently and energetically fanned the flames of Trump-hatred, going so far as to compare the U.S. President to Adolf Hitler.

Madonna has company – in Germany.

Smiling ZDF German moderator Ilka Brecht proudly introduces the Trump-Hitler comparison under the guise of a parody. All images cropped from ZDF Frontal 21.

The spread of hatred and the defamation of Trump in Germany has been going on for some months now, but has reached new shrill levels. Last September German SPD (Socialists) Martin Schulz told Spiegel magazine last September: “Trump is a danger to the entire world,” comparing the then US candidate’s rhetoric to that of pre-World War II Nazi Germany:

Behind it there is sometimes even a blood and earth rhetoric that strongly reminds me of the time between the two world wars of last century and whose demons we all indeed still know.”

And since Trump’s “surprise” election success and his inauguration, the rhetoric and raw emotion have boiled to a head among Germany’s state-supported flagship media and top political leaders. Yes — the top political leaders — and not solely among some regular citizens venting in beer-halls. Without any surprise, the anger and hate are now rapidly spreading and radicalizing increasingly the population.

Assassination as solution to Trump presidency

Last Sunday in a televised discussion round German national weekly Die Zeit publisher Josef Joffe sparked outrage by telling viewers “an assassination” would be a solution to the “Trump catastrophe”.

Josef Joffe of German weekly Die Zeit said that “assassination” could be one way to remove Trump from office. Image cropped from Phoenix.

German media/top pols portraying US president as mad and evil

Last Tuesday the hate-filled rhetoric from the ruling elitist classes intensified several notches more: On ZDF national television political show Frontal 21, President Trump was directly compared to Adolf Hitler in a clip disguised as a parody, which was far more offensive than it was funny.

 “They both have funny hairdos.”

The Frontal 21 “parody” also said that both Hitler and Trump promised to build new roads and infrastructure, and boasted about drawing “huge crowds”, The ZDF used the following image:

ZDF then portrayed the US President as a maniac…

“rather vague”, “clueless”, “from the grace of God”

What is disturbing is that this “parody” is not something produced by some fringe site, but by federal government supported German ZDF national television, and thus cannot be dismissed. It is “public television” and so all citizens are forced to pay mandatory annual fees. Non-payment involves severe penalties. Yes, as a resident in Germany, I also have to watch my money get used to pay for this hate-garbage aimed at my President.

Leading politicians involved in public broadcasting

Not only the German top media are defaming the US president, but ao are the country’s top political leaders. Thomas Oppermann of the SPD party announced: “Donald Trump is not playing with a full deck.” Soon to-be-President Frank Walter Steinmeier called Trump a “hate-preacher“.

Also the Chairman of the ZDF administrative council is Kurt Beck (SPD) and it includes Bernd Neumann (CDU). Germany’s powerful public television and radio media network is increasingly a communication arm of the the German government. Other ZDF higher ups include politicians Matthias Platzeck (SPD) Horst Seehofer (CSU), Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) and Olaf Scholz (SPD).

Designed to unleash an assassin?

What could be behind the spreading of so much Trump-hatred and the harboring of assassination thoughts? It would not be overreach to suspect that the German government is fantasizing about triggering its own twisted new version of Stauffenberg, as Joffe openly expressed. What’s the point of the Hitler-comparison? It’s supposed to be funny?

How all this is supposed to serve to strengthen transatlantic relations with Europe is puzzling. On the economics side Germany itself enjoys a hefty trade surplus with USA, it’s 3rd largest trading partner, and so risks inflicting more economic harm to itself than to Trump. Already some in Germany are proposing closer ties to China as an alternative.

Moreover, the dirty attacks by the country’s leaders/media will hardly help lead to a solution concerning the VW fuel emissions scandal, and those of the other German manufacturers. In fact the potential $18 billion in fines from VW would be more than enough to pay for the border wall to Mexico.

 

Germany: 120 Billion Euros For 5% Electricity Supply! And “Huge New Green Movement” Against Wind Power

Only 5% of demand covered

The Swiss online Baseler Zeitung here writes how the country’s Association for Pharmaceutical, Chemical and Biotech Companies is coming out against Switzerland’s recently proposed green “energy strategy”, saying that it is “fundamentally going in the wrong direction“.

The association fears it will lead to higher costs.

Energy politician Christian Wasserfallen “is pleased” about the message, the Baseler Zeitung writes.

The economy is slowly realizing what a threat the energy strategy poses.”

On the problems of supply reliability from sun and wind power, the Baseler Zeitung reports:

Just how little wind and sun really deliver was actually measured for example by Germany yesterday: The more than 120 billion euros worth of solar panels and wind turbines installed since 2000 delivered 4% and 1% respectively of German power demand.”

Huge Resistance Now Mounting Against German Green Energies

In another story, Benny Peiser of the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation interviewed Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, one of the founders of the environmental movement in Germany and the Chairman of the German Wildlife Trust. See full interview in the following video:

CO2 reductions backfire

On why CO2 is rising despite the 25 billion dollars annually spent on green energies, Vahrenholt says the system is set up in a way that ends up making coal more competitive, and so squeezes out the cleaner natural gas as the energy to provide the base load. He calls the system “contradictory in itself.”

He adds that the government target of reducing energy consumption by 20% by 2020 “will never be achieved”, let alone reaching the CO2 emissions reductions target.

Host Benny Peiser reminds that the Energiewende costs the average household 300 euros annually, all to “subsidize the wealthy landowners, farmers, and the people with big houses who invest in renewables.” People have accepted the burden because they have been told it is to “save the world” and that government has played on the bad conscience of the collective German population for bad things done in the past, Vahrenholt said. On the issue “there is no political opposition in the Parliament. None.”

“New green movement” posing huge resistance

However Vahrenholt says that people in rural areas are now rising up against the destruction of the landscape and forests by wind energy. “What we see now is that biodiversity is destroyed by the measures against climate change.”

He says here there is huge resistance coming from a new green movement that eventually will make its way into the Parliament. He accuses the German Green Party of having abandoned its original mission of protecting nature and wildlife, and tell viewers that the green movement has begun to bicker and splinter.

Complete transformation of the landscape

Later he says plastering the country with over 50,000 turbines, as planned, would de facto mean a complete and profound transformation of the country’s romantic landscape. Already 240,000 bats per year fall victim to wind turbines each year, he notes.

Vahrenholt, a member of the SPD socialist party, reminds viewers that the green party has never really been green, but are in reality leftists disguised as environmentalists who are pursing an anti-industry, anti-technology and anti capitalism agenda in an attempt to fundamentally transform society. He says the energy policy silliness is being driven by an irrational belief in climate catastrophe.

Vahrenholt calls Germany’s exit from nuclear energy misguided and a mistake.

On the prospect of Germany returning to reason, the German professor says that it will depend on three factors: 1) if global temperature fails to rise, 2) on grid stability and 3) the destruction of nature in Germany, which is now “a growing concern”.

 

17 New (2017) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Is Not Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable


The Hockey Stick Collapses (2017)

A collection of 60 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in 2016 were displayed here last month in an article entitled, “The Hockey Stick Collapses: 60 New (2016) Scientific Papers Affirm Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable“.

Each paper from the 2016 collection cast doubt on claims of an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.

Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades (i.e., the Arctic since the 1990s), or at some point in the last 100 years.  Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time (i.e., the Arctic during the 1950s to 1980s, the Southern Ocean since 1979).  And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years.

In other words, there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of natural variability.

And the scientific evidence continues to accumulate for 2017.  In just the first month of this year, there have already been at least 17 papers published in scientific journals once again documenting that modern warming is not global, unprecedented, or remarkable.  In fact, several of these papers indicate that we are still living through some of the coldest temperatures of the last 10,000 years (just above Little Ice Age levels), and that a large portion of the amplitude of the modern warming trend (if there is one depicted) was realized prior to the mid-20th century, or before the period when human CO2 emissions began to rise dramatically.

Needless to say, these papers do not support the position that human CO2 emissions are the primary drivers of climate.


Köse et al., 2017 (Turkey, Europe)

“The reconstruction is punctuated by a temperature increase during the 20th century; yet extreme cold and warm events during the 19th century seem to eclipse conditions during the 20th century. We found significant correlations between our March–April spring temperature reconstruction and existing gridded spring temperature reconstructions for Europe over Turkey and southeastern Europe. … During the last 200 years, our reconstruction suggests that the coldest year was 1898 and the warmest year was 1873. The reconstructed extreme events also coincided with accounts from historical records. …  Further, the warming trends seen in our record agrees with data presented by Turkes and Sumer (2004), of which they attributed [20th century warming] to increased urbanization in Turkey. Considering long-term changes in spring temperatures, the 19th century was characterized by more high-frequency fluctuations compared to the 20th century, which was defined by more gradual changes and includes the beginning of decreased DTRs [diurnal temperature ranges] in the region (Turkes and Sumer, 2004).”

Flannery et al., 2017 (Florida, U.S.)

The early part of the reconstruction (1733–1850) coincides with the end of the Little Ice Age, and exhibits 3 of the 4 coolest decadal excursions in the record. However, the mean SST estimate from that interval during the LIA is not significantly different from the late 20th Century SST mean. The most prominent cooling event in the 20th Century is a decade centered around 1965. This corresponds to a basin-wide cooling in the North Atlantic and cool phase of the AMO.”

Mayewski et al., 2017 (Antarctic Circle)

Rydval et al., 2017 (Scotland, Scandinavia, Northern Europe, Alps, France-Spain)

“[T]he recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730sAll six [Northern Hemisphere] records show a warmer interval in the period leading up to the 1950s, although it is less distinct in the CEU reconstruction. [E]xtreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. … There is reasonable agreement in general between the records regarding protracted cold periods which occur during the LIA and specifically around the Maunder solar minimum centred on the second half of the seventeenth century and to some extent also around the latter part of the fifteenth century coinciding with part of the Spörer minimum (Usoskin et al. 2007).”

Reynolds et al., 2017 (North Atlantic)

 

Rosenthal et al., 2017  (Atlantic, Pacific Oceans)

“Here we review proxy records of intermediate water temperatures from sediment cores and corals in the equatorial Pacific and northeastern Atlantic Oceans, spanning 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. These records suggests that intermediate waters [0-700 m] were 1.5-2°C warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than in the last century. Intermediate water masses cooled by 0.9°C from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age. These changes are significantly larger than the temperature anomalies documented in the instrumental record. The implied large perturbations in OHC and Earth’s energy budget are at odds with very small radiative forcing anomalies throughout the Holocene and Common Era. … The records suggest that dynamic processes provide an efficient mechanism to amplify small changes in insolation [surface solar radiation] into relatively large changes in OHC.”

Li et al., 2017  (North China, Northern Hemisphere)

“We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC [North China] during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. … It has been widely suggested from both climate modeling and observation data that solar activity plays a key role in driving late Holocene climatic fluctuations by triggering global temperature variability and atmospheric dynamical circulation

Kawahata et al., 2017 (Northern Japan)

“The SST [sea surface temperature] shows a broad maximum (~17.3 °C) in the mid-Holocene (5-7 cal kyr BP), which corresponds to the Jomon transgression. … The SST maximum continued for only a century and then the SST [sea surface temperatures] dropped by 3.5 °C [15.1 to 11.6 °C] within two centuries. Several peaks fluctuate by 2°C over a few centuries.”

Saini et al., 2017 (Tibetan Plateau)

Dechnik et al., 2017 (Tropical Western Pacific)

[I]t is generally accepted that relative sea level reached a maximum of 1–1.5 m above present mean sea level (pmsl) by ~7 ka [7,000 years ago] (Lewis et al., 2013)”

Wu et al., 2017  (South China Sea)

“The alkenone-based SST reconstruction shows rapid warming in the first 1500 years of the Holocenean increase of sea surface temperature from c. 23.0 °C to 27.0 °C, associated with a strengthened summer monsoon from c. 10,350 to 8900 cal. years BP. This was also a period of rapid sea-level rise and marine transgression, during which the sea inundated the palaeo-incised channel … In these 1500 years, fluvial discharge was strong and concentrated within the channel, and the high sedimentation rate (11.8 mm/yr [1.18 m per century]) was very close to the rate of sea-level rise.”

Sun et al., 2017  (China, Southwest)

“[A]t least six centennial droughts occurred at about 7300, 6300, 5500, 3400, 2500 and 500 cal yr BP. Our findings are generally consistent with other records from the ISM [Indian Summer Monsoon]  region, and suggest that the monsoon intensity is primarily controlled by solar irradiance on a centennial time scale. This external forcing may have been amplified by cooling events in the North Atlantic and by ENSO activity in the eastern tropical Pacific, which shifted the ITCZ further southwards. The inconsistency between local rainfall amount in the southeastern margin of the QTP and ISM intensity may also have been the result of the effect of solar activity on the local hydrological cycle on the periphery of the plateau.”

Wu et al., 2017  (Costa Rica)

“The existence of depressed MAAT [mean annual temperatures] (1.3°C lower than the 3200-year average) between 1480 CE and 1860 CE (470–90 cal. yr BP) may reflect the manifestation of the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) in southern Costa Rica. Evidence of low-latitude cooling and drought during the ‘LIA’ has been documented at several sites in the circum-Caribbean and from the tropical Andes, where ice cores suggest marked cooling between 1400 CE and 1900 CE.  Lake and marine records recovered from study sites in the southern hemisphere also indicate the occurrence of ‘LIA’ cooling. High atmospheric aerosol concentrations, resulting from several large volcanic eruptions and sea-ice/ocean feedbacks, have been implicated as the drivers responsible for the ‘LIA’.”

Park, 2017 (Western Tropical Pacific)

Late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia was likely driven by ENSO variation.   Our tree pollen index of warmness (TPIW) shows important late Holocene cold events associated with low sunspot periods such as Oort, Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder Minimum. Comparisons among standard Z-scores of filtered TPIW, ΔTSI, and other paleoclimate records from central and northeastern China, off the coast of northern Japan, southern Philippines, and Peru all demonstrate significant relationships [between solar activity and climate]. This suggests that solar activity drove Holocene variations in both East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, the latter seems to have predominantly controlled the coastal climate of East Asia to the extent that the influence of precession was nearly muted during the late Holocene.”

Pendea et al., 2017  (Russia)

The Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) was a relatively warm period that is commonly associated with the orbitally forced Holocene maximum summer insolation (e.g., Berger, 1978; Bartlein et al., 2011). Its timing varies widely from region to region but is generally detected in paleorecords between 11 and 5 cal ka BP (e.g., Kaufman et al., 2004; Bartlein et al., 2011; Renssen et al., 2012).  … In Kamchatka, the timing of the HTM varies. Dirksen et al. (2013) find warmer-than-present conditions between 9000 and 5000 cal yr BP in central Kamchatka and between 7000 and 5800 cal yr BP at coastal sites.”

Stivrins et al., 2017  (Latvia)

“Conclusion: Using a multi-proxy approach, we studied the dynamics of thermokarst characteristics in western Latvia, where thermokarst occurred exceptionally late at the Holocene Thermal Maximum. …  [A] thermokarst active phase … began 8500 cal. yr BP and lasted at least until 7400 cal. yr BP. Given that thermokarst arise when the mean summer air temperature gradually increased ca. 2°C beyond the modern day temperature, we can argue that before that point, the local geomorphological conditions at the study site must have been exceptional to secure ice-block from the surficial landscape transformation and environmental processes.”

Bañuls-Cardona et al., 2017 (Spain)

“During the Middle Holocene we detect important climatic events. From 7000 to 6800 [years before present] (MIR 23 and MIR22), we register climatic characteristics that could be related to the end of the African Humid Period, namely an increase in temperatures and a progressive reduction in arboreal cover as a result of a decrease in precipitation. The temperatures exceeded current levels by 1°C, especially in MIR23, where the most highly represented taxon is a thermo-Mediterranean species, M. (T.) duodecimcostatus.”

Researcher: More Evidence Extreme Weather In Japan, Global Cooling, Linked To Solar Activity

By Kyoji Kimoto

I have found a 44-year cycle of heavy snowfall in Japan caused by a wavy jet stream, corresponding to Dalton and Gleissberg Minimum as follows [Kimoto, 2010].

1. 1833/heavy snowfall – Dalton Minimum (1795-1830)

2. 1877 heavy snowfall (44 years later)

3. 1918/heavy snowfall: Gleissberg Minimum (1898-1923) – 41 years later

4. 1963/heavy snowfall (45 years later)

5. 2006/heavy snowfall, Dalton or Gleissberg minimum (43 years later)

The heavy snowfall events have all occurred with sharp decline in the aa- index of geomagnetism as shown by four upward arrows in Fig.1. Two downward arrows show trough of geomagnetic activity in 1902 and 1912 associated with the events in which the planet Jupiter (JU), the center of mass of solar system (CM) and the Sun’s center (CS) are in line [Landsheidt, 1988].

Fig. 1: Yearly mean aa-index of geomagnetism.

Therefore, I estimate a probability of coming solar minimum as follows in Fig. 2.:

– Maunder minimum(1645-1715)(probability: 20%)

– Dalton minimum (1795-1830)(probability: 40%)

– Gleissberg minimum(1898-1923)(probability: 40%)

Fig. 2 :Sunspot data showing Maunder, Dalton and Gleissberg Minimum (NASA)

In 1988, Bucha showed decreased solar activity causes a wavy jet stream along with low aa-index of geomagnetism in line with my findings above. Thus, the solar minimum will cause extreme weather as well as global cooling which might begin in 2020 when the ocean inertia of 14 years is added to 2006 (phase change year of solar activity).

Jennifer Francis and Masato Mori claimed that recent harsh winter is caused by the Arctic sea ice loss with the AGW. Their narratives are rightly criticized here.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/inquiring-minds-jennifer-francis-kevin-trenberth-jet-stream-winter

http://notrickszone.com/2016/06/01/masato-moris-harsh-wintershrinking-arctic-sea-ice-hypothesis-flops-brand-new-study-shows/#sthash.a6teCRyX.dpbs

(References)

Bucha, V., 1988. Influence of solar activity on atmospheric circulation types. Annales Geophysicae 6, 513-524.

Kimoto, K., 2010. Is the AGW theory of the IPCC a mathematical error? (in Japanese), Rikotosyo, Tokyo.

Landscheidt, T., 1988. Solar rotation, impulses of the torque in the sun’s motion, and climatic variation. Climatic Change 12, 265-295.

Larsen C Ice Shelf Crack Not Related To Climate Change …Ice “More Stable Than Previously Thought”

No climate change: Huge iceberg threatens to break off from Larsen C Ice Shelf

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Image: visibleearth.nasa.gov

A huge crack recently formed through the Antarctic Larsen C ice shelf. The German Tagesspiegel here was fair and did not attribute it to climate change:

A huge iceberg threatens to break away from Antarctica
An iceberg twice the size of Saarland threatens to break off the Larsen-C ice shelf. That’s a rare spectacle. […] ‘The crack is probably 160 kilometers long and 300 to 500 meters deep,’ the project-involved scientist Martin 0′Leary told the German Press Agency on Saturday. A direct connection to climate change cannot be ascertained.”

Read more at Tagesspiegel.

That’s a normal process: Self ice forms, but does not last forever. Time and again cracks form and chunks break off. During the Little Ice Age the shelf ice was more extensive and stable. Before that, during the Medieval Warm Period, the shelf ice melted similarly like today. If one looks at the past 150 years — the global rewarming since the Little Ice Age — then no one wonders that the Antarctic shelf ice retreated 5 meters per day between 1900 and 1930. Over the past fifty years things probably have looked different, as the Antarctic sea water has cooled over the past 50 years. According to Sinclair et al. (2014), the Ross ice shelf has expanded 5%. Apparently the Antarctic sea ice is indeed more stable than previously thought.

A look back over the past 10,000 years yields additional amazing facts. A series of Antarctic shelf ice regions in fact shrank drastically during this time, or even disappeared completely. For example in Solomina et al. (2015):

A number of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have also experienced major fluctuations during the Holocene. George VI Ice Shelf was absent between 9.6 ka and 7.7 ka (Smith et al., 2007), Prince Gustav Ice Shelfwas absent between 6.8 and 1.8 ka (O Cofaigh et al., 2014), the Larsen A Ice Shelf was absent at 3.8-1.4 ka (Brachfeld et al., 2003; Balco et al., 2013). In contrast Larsen B and Larsen C Ice Shelves existed throughout the Holocene (Domack et al., 2005; Curry and Pudsey, 2007).

During the Holocene thermal maximum 6000 years ago, the outer edge of the Amery ice shelf was 80 km closer to the coast than it is today, as documented by Hemer & Harris (2003) in Geology. The abstract:

An increase in sea-ice–associated diatom deposition in the upper [=late] part of the Holocene suggests that a major retreat of the Amery Ice Shelf to at least 80 km landward of its present location may have occurred during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum.

With a little interest in climate science, things suddenly appear much better. Efforts need to be made against the suppression of history and to prevent the pre-industrial climate history from becoming forgotten.

 

New Paper: 14 Scientists Affirm Solar Forcing, Not CO2, Is ‘Dominant Control’ For Modern Climate Change



One of the oft-stated “truths” for advocates of the position that humans are predominantly responsible for climate changes is that the Sun could not have played more than a negligible role in the global warming of the last few centuries. Indeed, the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) report theorizes that the long-term solar contribution to climate change has been slightly above zero.


IPCC AR5:


And yet today’s scientists have not been deterred in their quest to document a robust Sun-Climate link in the paleoclimate data… as well as in the temperature and climatic changes for recent decades.  In 2016 alone, for example, there were over 130 scientific papers documenting a non-negligible solar influence on climate.

Climate scientist Dr. Jianyong Li, who has himself authored over 300 peer-reviewed scientific publications, continues this trend of linking climate changes to solar forcing.  He and 13 other scientists just published a new paper in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews in which they have clearly affirmed the dominance of the Sun’s forcing on the climate of China (and for the Northern Hemisphere in general) during the past few thousand years, including the last century.  The authors assert that climate changes and solar activity are well correlated throughout the paleoclimate record, and that if there is a role for greenhouse gases to influence climatic trends, that role is merely supplementary, not dominant.  They also describe in detail how the Sun’s variance acts to influence atmospheric and oceanic heat oscillations, and how this may affect regional precipitation, weather, and temperature changes.


Li et al., 2017

Summary

“We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC [North China] during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. … It has been widely suggested from both climate modeling and observation data that solar activity plays a key role in driving late Holocene climatic fluctuations by triggering global temperature variability and atmospheric dynamical circulation (e.g., Haigh, 1996; Shindell et al., 1999; Bond et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2003; Dykoski et al., 2005).”


Climate Changes/Oscillations And Solar Activity Well Correlated For North China, Northern Hemisphere

“Spectral analyses indicate that the PANN [annual precipitation] record has significant periodicities at 100, 67, 57 and 23 years; and the TANN [annual temperature] record displays notable periodicities at 118, 103, 80, 67, 56, 50, 40 and 22 years (Fig. 4). The 100, 57 and 23 year periods for PANN, as well as the 103, 50, and 22 year periods for TANN, correlate well with the 100, 50, 23 and 22 year cycles for the solar activity observed in various solar parameters (e.g., Wilson et al., 1996; Li et al., 1996; Chowdhury et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2014), therefore implying an in-phase relationship between the climatic oscillation in NC [North China] and solar activity. Furthermore, a multidecadal to centennial comparison of our pollen-derived TANN reconstruction for NC with the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI; Vieira et al., 2011), the Asian Pacific Oscillation index (APO; Zhou et al., 2009), the Intertropical Convergence Zone index (ITCZ; Haug et al., 2001), the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO; Trouet et al., 2009; Olsen et al., 2012) and the Ice-Rafted Debris record (IRD; Bond et al., 2001) from the North Atlantic Ocean, suggests a strong underlying teleconnection between the EAM [East Asian Monsoon] regime in NC and many other high- or low-latitude climatic systems in different regions of the northern Hemisphere.” 

[Notice there has been no significant net warming in North China since about 1950, consistent with the temperature trends for the Northern Hemisphere in general and similar to the identified pattern in reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiance.]


The Mechanism Of Solar Forcing And Climatic/Oscillatory Changes

“In short, the mechanism of the climatic variations in NC [North China] can be likely summarized as follows.  The strengthened solar activity could be significantly amplified by the variations in ultraviolet radiation as well as clouds (e.g., Haigh, 1996; Tinsley, 2000), resulting in the marked variability in global surface temperature. As the heat capacity between land and ocean differs notably, if TSI increases, the thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the North Pacific Ocean would be enhanced, resulting in high values of APO and thus northward shift of both ITCZ and Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) positions (e.g., Zhao et al., 2007; Zhou et al., 2009), so that the summer monsoon and its rain belt would move further north and stay longer in NC. At the same time, because the increased TSI would lead to decreased IRD values, but increased North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) circulation, and hence a positive NAO phase, the EAM continent including NC would receive less cold air masses from the high-latitude regions of NH and thus be substantially warming up, so that the winter monsoon and westerlies would be concurrently weakened and retreat northward (e.g., Wu and Wang, 2002; Wang et al., 2005; Li et al., 2015a). As a result, the enhanced summer monsoon would bring more rainfall to NC where the surface temperature is also synchronously higher. In contrast, when TSI declines, the EAM land temperature falls quickly, whereas the winter monsoon and westerlies would be intensified, thus leading to increased IRD values, but declining NADW strength as well as a negative NAO phase; and meanwhile the positions of both ITCZ and WPSH would retreat southward, the summer monsoon intensity would be significantly weakened, thereby resulting in the coincidently decreased precipitation as well as temperature in NC.”


CO2 May ‘Partly’ Affect Climate Variations, But Its Role Is Only Superimposed On ‘Solar-Dominated Control’

“Additionally, increased El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Niño-like phases) during drying periods, increased volcanic eruptions and the resulting aerosol load during cooling periods, as well as high volumes of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 during the recent warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar-dominated long-term control (e.g., Wanner et al., 2008; Tan et al., 2011; Kobashi et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2015a,b).”


A Closer Look At The Robust Correlation Between Solar Variability And Modern Climate

In examining the strong correlation between solar variability and temperature changes, notice the reconstruction of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) supplied in the Li et al. (2017) paper (from Vieira et al., 2011, shown in this article’s leading graph above and now below). TSI trends for the last several centuries indicate a dramatic rise in solar irradiance from the early 20th century until about 1950, then a decline in solar forcing through the 1960s and 1970s, and then another rising TSI trend after the 1980s until the early 2000s.  These trends all correlate rather well with temperature trends not only for China, but for the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Vieira et al., 2011


Even using non-tampered-with instrumental temperature datasets reveal a similar warming-cooling-warming oscillation for the Northern Hemisphere that is compatible with reconstructions of TSI.

Prior to NASA’s elimination of 0.45°C of warming from the 1880s to 1940 period, as well as making 0.3°C of cooling disappear from the 1940 to 1970 trend, the National Academy of Sciences produced a graph (depicted below) indicating there was nearly 1°C of warming between the late 1880s and 1940, and then about -0.5 or -0.6°C of cooling between 1940 and 1975.



And then, since 1979, the RSS sattellite temperature dataset (shown below) indicates that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has warmed again by about +0.5 or +0.6° C overall since the 1970s, likely recovering completely from the earlier cooling period of similar magnitude (1940 to 1970s).  Since about 2000, the NH trend has been largely flat (until the 2015-’16 Super El Niño warming event). Therefore, using the instrumental records that have likely not been massively adjusted to fit climate models, the 1940s peak and the 2000s plateau are probably similar in warming magnitude.  So, like the paleoclimate reconstructions shown above from Li et al. (2017), even the instrumental record seems to correlate well with the Vieira et al. (2011) TSI reconstruction for the 20th and 21st centuries.


RSS Satellite Graph Climate4you


Because large regions of the Southern Hemisphere (and middle latitudes) have not warmed since the 1970s (regions such as West Antarctica, East Antarctica, Antarctica as a whole, the Southern OceanSouth America, Australia, India, the Indian Ocean …) even global surface temperatures may follow a warming-cooling-warming oscillatory pattern for the 20th century that correlates well with TSI trends.

Gerhard, 2004


A 2014 Paper Also Affirms A Robust Correlation Between TSI And Temperatures

Moffa-Sánchez et al., 2014

“There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. … The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. [L]ow solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. … Our results reveal abrupt multidecadal to centennial shifts in the temperature and salinity of the NAC [North Atlantic Current] waters of 3.5 °C and 1.2 °C, respectively, during the past millennium. The magnitude of the hydrographic variability is substantial and comparable to that recorded in a lower resolution record spanning the present interglacial from a nearby site, which highlights the similarities in the ocean variability on a diverse range of timescales. The timing of the hydrographic shifts shows a strong correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI) variability. Periods of solar minima (maxima) generally correspond to cold and fresh (warm and salty) conditions in the NAC.”


Conclusion

The IPCC has taken the position that the Sun (and natural factors like clouds and aerosols that influence its variable surface energy absorption) has had little to no influence on climate changes in the last few hundred years.  This conceptualization is rooted in the presupposition that humans are primarily — if not exclusively — responsible for Earth’s temperature changes.  Media outlets have taken the cue and headlined stories such as 2016 Was Earth’s Hottest Year on Record, and Humans Are to Blame“.

Considering the large and growing body of scientific evidence linking the Sun to climate variations — even for the 20th and 21st centuries — it is long past due for the IPCC and other influential bodies to take a much closer look at the solar sciences as an explanation for past and present climate changes.

 

The Startling Debacle Of Germany’s Electric Cars …Auto Industry Faces Demise In 10 Years

NOTE: I was in Berlin the whole weekend and just got back. A bit tired, and so no new post today.
========================================

The skeptic European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here brings our attention to a documentary on electric cars by German flagship ARD public television broadcast recently.

German auto industry risks skidding out of control. Photo credit: BMW.

The news on the electric car situation in Germany does not look good. As it turns out that the government and industry are not really that serious about it, despite all the lofty green rhetoric.

In fact the ARD reports that Daimler has even stopped production of electric cars so that the production line could instead be used to produce regular internal combustion engine cars (ICEs) for deliveries to China and USA. So much for Daimler CEO’s pledge to “become a leader in electric cars.” In fact all German automotive CEOs posture as leaders in electric cars, but the reality is different.

So few cars sold in Germany

ARD wonders why so few electric cars are sold in Germany, despite test drivers finding them quite pleasant to drive – to a certain point. In fact ARD calls Germany e-car sales figures a “a catastrophe”, as only 32,000 electric cars have been registered so far. The target is 1 million by 2020, something that analysts now call “a fairy tale”. The German auto industry puts the blame squarely on the government.

But whose fault is it really for the terrible electric car sales in Germany? ARD decided to look into the topic more deeply and uncovered a number of reasons. They discover that the German automakers have in fact very little interest in pursuing electric cars, nor does the German government.

Low range

Despite claiming that cars can go 190 km on a full charge, ARD shows in fact that the real number for BMW e-cars is only about 120 km. And if the driver sets the car to not exceed the economical 90 km/hr speed and to not to use air conditioning, the range jumps only to 124 km. “A bit depressing,” says the test driver.

Exorbitant cost

Moreover, the BMW i3 test vehicle featured by ARD has a sticker price of a whopping 35,000 euros ($37,000), “about one third more than a comparable petrol engine car,” says the ARD. “Way overpriced,” says the test driver. The question is why is the BMW i3 so expensive even though the ARD reports that the production cost of the lightweight vehicle is relatively low? The answer according to ARD is that the automotive companies want it that way. This explains why BMW sold only a bit over 16,000 cars worldwide last year.

No rush to electric cars

The truth is that the German automakers are putting the brakes on electric cars. There’s a very good reason for that, the ARD discovered. German automakers are in no rush to shift to electric cars because they fear such a move “would only devalue their ICE technology,” says automotive analyst Prof. Stefan Bratzel. “It is irrational for them to shift far into the electric sector.”

eGolf is only an optional variant

Also investigated is an eGolf car by VW. Also here the test driver is impressed by the overall feel of the electric car, but the price is also exorbitant at 35,000 euros — some 15,000 euros more than the comparable petrol version vehicle.

The ARD asks why eGolfs have the exact same look as the conventional Golfs, and so buyers are unable to show and make the statement that they are concerned about protecting the environment. Here the answer lies in the costs surrounding production, and parts sharing among models. The eGolf shares the exact same platform as the other ICE Golf models.

e-cars still remain in question

VW CEO Martin Winterkorn adds: “Currently everything is open when it comes to where the path of the various drives systems.” In summary: the future of e-cars, at least for Winterkorn, still remains in question. The ARD is taken aback by Winterkorn’s comment. For VW, the real money remains in ICE cars and there is little incentive to go electric.

German electric car battery plant shuttered

Another sign that electric cars are not being taken seriously by German automakers is the country’s only electric battery plant located near Dresden is slated to be shuttered. The ARD reports that the Evonik plant (owned by Daimler) will be closed by the end of the year (2016), citing that “it is not competitive” despite receiving a 30-million euro subsidy from the government! Today German automotive manufacturers must now rely solely on foreign battery suppliers, such as Samsung, Panasonic, or Tesla for their batteries. ARD in summary reports that Germany is all but out of the race when it comes to electric mobility technology.

Charging stations far too sparse

At the 21:00 mark of the documentary, the ARD switches the focus to more technical problems, namely the lack of charging stations in Berlin and elsewhere. The German television station shows that there are only a small handful in Berlin, making e-cars especially inconvenient and stressful to drive. In Amsterdam, Netherlands, on the other hand, charging stations can be found at almost every street corner, the ARD reports. Out in rural Germany, charging stations are virtually non-existent.

Exaggerated charging times

The ARD reports that the industry even exaggerates the battery charging time, as one test driver shows. Instead of the advertised 30 minutes needed for a “quick charge” in reality it takes 80 minutes. The “quick-charging” network in Germany is also a “catastrophe”, says Kurt Sigl, President of the Federal Association of Mobility.

Subsidies for show

Another peculiarity of the German automotive industry is that German automakers, despite making huge overall profits, are still receiving hundreds of millions in government (taxpayer) subsidies for e-mobility development. Even the charging station in front of BMW headquarters in Munich (27:52 mark) was paid for by a government subsidy to the tune of 900,000 euros!

So far German car producers have received hundreds of million in subsidies from the government, totally unnecessary experts say. There is little to show for it.

Cheating and fudging to meet new CO2 emissions standards

The German automotive industry faces yet another problem: their car fleets will have to meet strict EU CO2 emissions standards by 2020. By then the average car will be allowed to emit only 95 g of CO2 per km. Analysts say German carmakers will have to vastly expand the share of electric cars sold to 20%, an increase of 2000% in 7 years. Failure to meet the standards could mean billions in fines.

German government supports emissions cheating!

But the ARD explains that German automakers plan to cheat their way past the new standards by installing “hybrid” engines and through (legal) fudging during fuel emissions tests. Moreover, leading automobile and truck manufacturers have banned together under the ACEA automotive manufacturers lobby association with the aim of exerting pressure on the regulatory agencies to go easy – and of course with the full support of the German government. The government (unconvincingly) denies this before the ARD camera.

Under the bottom line: The new CO2 standards will be met solely by manipulation and test trickery, and hardly through cleaner engines.

Again the German auto industry and the government, despite all the green talk, are in fact not at all serious about moving away from ICEs and high-end luxury cars, where they are leaders, and over to competing in the ferocious, low-profit e-car sector. One huge juggernaut is that electric cars will be soon be mass-produced in China and sold very cheaply – even from merchandise stores, where they are expected to be snapped up like refrigerators. Electric cars thus threaten to end the huge German car industry, possibly in the matter of a decade.

Titanic clash between the German economic backbone and climatism

It’s clear that Germany ditching the ICE spells the end of a bulk of its mighty ICE auto industry, the very backbone of the country’s — economy which employs directly and indirectly 1 of every 6 German worker. What is coming is the titanic clash between climatism and the fundamental economic interests of the German nation. To save itself, Germany will need to show that efficient ICE’s are not bad for the climate, and that the science of climate change was faulty, and that their cars are in fact far superior to electric carts and do not damage the climate as claimed.

There’s no way that the bulk of the German car industry will be able to compete in the electric sector. Solar technology has shown us that with tens of thousands of German solar jobs getting recently annihilated by cheap Chinese manufacturers.

Unless the climate science nonsense and hysteria get put to rest, Germany risks seeing its energy and automotive sectors collapse.

 

Current Solar Cycle 3rd All-Time Weakest …Next Cycle Likely To Be Weaker!

The sun in December 2016, and a look ahead

By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/summarized by P Gosselin)

In December solar activity was rather quiet, with the sunspot number at only 19.5.  The sun was spotless over 6 days, and already this month there have been 10 spotless days so far.

In December solar activity was only 35% of what the mean is for this month into a cycle.

Figure 1: Sunspot activity for solar cycle (SC) 24 (red) compared to the mean cycle (blue) and the comparatively very similarly behaving SC 5 (black) from the year 1798 to 1810.

We are now 97 months into SC 24 since it started in 2008. It is very clear just how much weaker than normal it has become. And it is in fact the third weakest cycle since observations began in 1755.

Figure 2: Comparison of all the solar cycles. The chart shows the accumulated sunspot number anomaly from the mean value.

No year of the current cycle reached the mean value:

Figure 3: The relative sunspot activity for each year of SC 24.

So far SC 24 has reached only 56% of the average activity of all cycles occurring since 1755.

For estimating what may be in store for SC 25, which is expected to begin around 2020, it is of great interest to look at the polar fields of the sun. The following chart of the arithmetic mean of the fields of both poles:

Figure 4: Plot of the solar polar field since 1977.

Here we see that both the polar fields and sunspots reached their maximum value fairly early in the cycle, approximately 3 years after reaching the zero-point and that the decline takes place until the 11th year on average. The current cycle reached its peak at about March 2013. The height of the maximum is a strong indicator of how strong the next cycle will be. From Figure 4 we see it will be about as strong as the current one, possibly a bit weaker.

The current weak activity is no one-time outlier, and also SC 25 will be a weak one. That means that the period after 2005 will be considerably different from the the strong activity period of SC 18-23.

Another observation in relation to the polar fields is interesting: The field strengths of both poles are in fact not completely independent of each other, but asymmetries can occur:

Figure 5 : Comparison of both polar fields. The smoothed field of the northern pole (blue) and the southern pole (red) are shown as values, as is the mean value (black).

In solar cycle 23, there was a switch in solar fields, which is normal. But during the current cycle there has been no switch in strength as the southern pole was the stronger pole over the entire time. This has never happened since satellite observations began in 1977, and means that the fields appear to be quite decoupled.

What does this decoupling mean? Could it be a sign for SC 25? The answer to this question is unknown because the satellite observations began only in 1977.

Yet, recently the results of a new study by Kalevi Mursula et al of the University in Oulu in Finland allow us to look back 100 years. Here the authors looked at the strength of coronal holes in order to get information about the polar fields since 1910. Coronal holes, like solar flares, are sources of plasma discharges from the sun and act to strengthen solar winds, which in turn impact the earth’s magnetic fields. What follows is an example image made by a space craft:

Figure 6: A huge central coronal hole (dark area) on the sun, Source: NASA

Examining archives on polar lights, which are caused by flares and coronal holes, the authors were able to trace back the strengths of the solar polar coronal holes. The result: they were predominant on the downside of the SC 18 and SC 19, with the peak in 1957 – and then followed the most active cycle of the systematic observation record.

The situation was entirely different after the peak of solar cycle 23, starting at about 2002. The authors conclude that both events mark records for the period since 1910 and are at the start and end of the long-term maximum of solar activity (see Figure 2) in the second half of the 20th century. With regards to the polar fields, solar activity shifted up a gear in the 1950s and then shifted down at the end of the century.

This is confirmed by the results of the study.

Stratospheric radiation up 11% over past 2 years

And the sun impacts the earth through its non-activity: The diminishing solar winds means the earth gets hit by more cosmic rays, which leads to opper atmospheric reactions which ultimately lead to the generation of gamma and X-rays — to which we are subjected to a greater extent than at times of a more active sun. We’ve reported frequently on the possible effects of cosmic rays on cloud formation. A comprehensive measurement program has been started to determine which dosage man receives and how much it changes with little solar winds. Here are the first results:

Figure 7: Radiation into the stratosphere during the course of diminishing solar activity, Source.

The solid gain of 11% growth in radiation clearly shows the effect of diminishing solar winds. Moving up into the stratosphere means increasing the dose of radiation by 80 times than that at sea level. A flight at 12,000 meters elevation impacts the the human body 50 times more than being at sea level. Such an increase on the earth’s surface would normally activate a variety of emergency responses. But the effects on the body of course depend on the exposure time. A ten-hour transcontinental flight has the same impact as about 20 days at the earth’s surface.

Therefore over the course of one’s life, over time an infrequent flier is far more effected by the much lower radiation at the surface that he is up in the atmosphere, and so there is no need to panic about flying.

Just how much will the present X-ray and gamma ray radiation rise until the solar minimum is reached? We will keep you up to date on this here as well!

 

Defying IPCC Models, U.S. Blizzard Frequency Has Nearly Quadrupled Since 1960, As U.S. Continues Cooling


What Models Say:


♦  IPCC TAR (2001):  “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms

♦   Kunkel et al., 2002:  “Surface conditions favorable for heavy lake-effect snow decreased in frequency by 50% and 90% for the HadCM2 and CGCM1 [models], respectively, by the late 21st Century. This reduction was due almost entirely to an increase in average winter air temperatures.”

♦   IPCC AR4 (2007):  Snow season length and snow depth are very likely to decrease in most of North America

♦   Kapnick and Delworth, 2013:  “In response to idealized radiative forcing changes, both models produce similar global-scale responses in which global-mean temperature and total precipitation increase while snowfall decreases. … By using a simple multivariate model, temperature is shown to drive these trends by decreasing snowfall almost everywhere” (press release)  “In North America, the greatest reductions in snowfall will occur along the northeast coast, in the mountainous west, and in the Pacific Northwest. Coastal regions from Virginia to Maine … will get less than half the amount of snow currently received.”


What Observations Say:


Coleman and Schwartz, 2017

“Data revealed 713 blizzards over the 55 years, with a mean of 13 events per season. Seasonal blizzard frequency ranged from one blizzard in 1980/81 to 32 blizzards in 2007/08Federal disaster declarations resulting from blizzards totaled 57, with more than one-half of them occurring in the twenty-first century.”

“Storm Data attributed 711 fatalities during the 55-yr study period, with an average of one individual per event; 2044 injuries were reported, with a mean of nearly three per blizzard. Property damage totaled approximately $9.11 billion in unadjusted dollars, with an approximate mean of $12.6 million per storm.”

“Seasonal blizzard frequencies displayed a distinct upward trend, with a more substantial rise over the past two decades. … The modeled increase in blizzard activity showed a nearly fourfold upsurge between the start and end of the study period at 5.9 and 21.6 blizzards, respectively. On the basis of current model trends, the expected blizzard total for a season is 32 blizzards by 2050; uncertainty exists on whether the linear trend will continue or stabilize in the near future.”


The Historical Context: More Snow Means Temperatures Are Cooling, Not Warming


It has long been assumed in the scientific community that snow coverage would decrease during warm periods, and increase during cool periods.  For example:


Eichenlaub, 1970

Evidence suggests that lake effect snowfall has significantly increased during the past several decades, particularly in Southern Michigan and Northern Indiana. While the observed changes cannot be definitively ascribed to any single factor, it seems likely that a general cooling of winter temperatures may be partially responsible for this climatic change.”

[M]any of the snowfall time-series curves for the lake stations show downward trends during the 1920’s and 1930’s, at the height of the recent warm period, and the more recent snowfall increase has coincided with a general world-wide cooling which has occurred in the last several decades.

Recent evidence derived from [isotope] analysis of ice core samples on the Greenland ice cap indicates a continuance of this cooling trend for another 20 or 30 years.”


What Dr. Eichenlaub was describing with regard to the increasing and decreasing temperature and snowfall trends is explained by Dr. Agee (1980).  The Northern Hemisphere’s surface temperatures warmed by “nearly 1°C” between 1890 and 1940, and then after 1940 and through the mid-1970s, the Northern Hemisphere experienced “comparable cooling” (almost -1°C).  (Most of these observations of warming and cooling amplitudes have now been removed from modern Northern Hemisphere datasets via “adjustments” so as to comply with climate model projections.)


Agee, 1980


In the temperature records for Indiana and Iowa (U.S.), Agee (1980) reported that, following the overall hemispheric pattern, both states warmed sharply during the 1920s to 1940s and then cooled by more than 2°C in the decades after.   This was the context that Eichenlaub (1970) was referring to in pointing out that the U.S. had been experiencing a long-term cooling trend since the 1940s which led to a significant increase in snowfall.




The U.S. Cooling Trend Has Returned In Recent Decades


According to NOAA, winter temperatures for the contiguous U.S. declined at a rate of -1.13°F per decade between 1995 and 2014.

NOAA screenshot

 


Large Regions Of The U.S. Are Still Colder Now Than They Were In The 1950s


Rogers, 2013


Christy and McNider, 2016


Tipton et al., 2016


North American Continent Is Not Discernibly Warmer Than During The Little Ice Age


Gennaretti et al., 2014


Pitman and Smith, 2012 


Steinman et al., 2016


Fortin and Gajewski, 2016

“Biological production decreased again at ~ 2 ka and the rate of cooling increased in the past 2 ka, with coolest temperatures occurring between 0.46 and 0.36 ka [460 and 360 years ago], coinciding with the Little Ice Age. Although biological production increased in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time. … Modern inferred temperatures based on both pollen and chironomids are [currently] up to 3°C cooler than those inferred for the mid-Holocene.”


Summary


It is widely accepted that enhanced snow cover and more frequent snow storms (blizzards) occur when winter temperatures are cooling (or cooler relative to an identified warm period).   U.S. temperatures cooled dramatically after the 1940s and 1950s, and they may only have recently reached the levels of warmth achieved in the first half of the 20th century, when snow cover was significantly reduced.   Blizzard frequency has increased almost four-fold since 1960, even as climate models have claimed they should be declining in frequency.   This increase in snow storms has coincided with a 20-year (1995-2014) winter temperature cooling trend in the U.S.

Overall, there has been no discernible anthropogenic influence on U.S. snow storm frequency in the last several decades, and there has been no discernible anthropogenic influence on U.S. temperatures in the last several hundred years, or even the last several decades relative to the early 20th century.

 

 

German Greens Move To Water Down Nature Protection Laws – To Clear Way For Wind Parks!

The German online Nordwest Zeitung (NWZ) reports here how mainly German Socialists and Greens (of all people) are moving to relax strict laws designed to protect nature and endangered species.

The aim is to clear the way for the industrialization of the North German rural countryside and natural areas with wind turbines.

Pushed by Germany’s Greens and Socialists, the country’s nature protection act to be watered down to make the industrialization of natural areas far easier. Image cropped from here.

Journalist Marco Seng reports that under the existing law a planned wind park near the town of Zetel, for example, will have to remain shut down for 6 months every year in order to protect the area birdlife. However, denying wind park construction and operation in order to protect nature and wildlife has become just too much to ask of Germany’s socialists and environmentalist greens.

They are now pushing through a watered-down law.

Each year in early spring a number of bird species transit through or nest in north German regions, which wind park developers and operators happen to find ideal wor wind energy generation. That’s a big problem. Under the current federal law wind turbines located in sensitive areas are required to shut down from March 1 to August 30 in order to comply with § 44 of the German Nature Protection Act.

Seng reports how a number of turbines are planned to be erected in different areas this year. For example the county of Friesland gave its approval in early January to rezone the areas by the end of March and allow the construction of turbines. Citizens groups however have protested, claiming that the turbines will not be profitable due to the summer shutdown period. Yet the mayors insist they will still make a profit and the projects will go ahead.

All this is highly controversial as the NWZ writes that recent studies and expert assessments have concluded that “many bird species are threatened, foremost predatory birds because they do not avoid turbines“.

Also the Deutsche Wildtier Stiftung (German Wildlife Foundation) estimated that approximately 250,000 bats and over 12,000 predatory birds fall victim to wind turbines annually, with a high number being killed over northern Germany. Recently some courts found in favor of the red kite hawk, and thus some planned wind parks were denied approvals to be constructed. The reason, NWZ reports, “a high risk of death to birds and adverse feeding conditions for predatory birds.”

So it’s little wonder that wind energy proponents are adamantly pushing for relaxing Germany’s nature protection laws.

At other locations, wind park projects are being given the green light anyway, angering nature-protection activists. The NWZ quotes Monika Oetje-Weber of the Kammersand citizens’ action group:

If all the information and documentation on the presence of important bird species had been taken seriously, then the approvals would have never been issued.”

The municipalities and project proponents, however, insist that the the turbines that are to be erected will pose no threat to bird life.

Watering down the nature protection laws to allow the turbines to run all year.

Because of the intensifying collision course between wind projects and birdlife and nature, and the increasing protests against wind parks in rural areas, the German government is now moving to alter Germany Federal Nature Protection Act to make it easier to build and operate wind parks and highways. The NWZ writes:

You read that correctly. In the future the Federal Nature Protection Act’s § 44 Section 1 No.1 ban against killing will be valid for interventions and projects if the risk of death for especially protected species in unavoidably signficantly high.”

This means the bar will be significantly lowered for wind projects. The reaction from nature activists came swiftly and harshly. The NWZ:

‘The amendment leads to a dramatic threat increase to birdlife and bats by wind turbines, and that is unacceptable,’ says Fritz Vahrenholt, Chairman of the German Wildlife Foundation. The killing of birds is thus no longer a principle reason for obstructing wind turbine parks.”

Other leading traditional environmental protection groups such as NABU are outraged, writes the NWZ:

We see absolutely no necessity for the planned amendment. We demand that lawmakers do not pass the amendment as it currently stands,’ says NABU President Olaf Tschimpke.”

Others accuse the government of having hollowed out the country’s nature protection laws and caving in to industry lobbyists. Others say that approval committees have not been strict enough when it comes to species protection assessments, claiming that the planning of the projects violates the law.

The NWZ concludes that a major collision between nature protection and the wind industry is now more unavoidable than ever. But the trend is clear: in Germany nature and birdlife are losing the battle against the powerful industrial wind lobby and climate protection activists.

Germany risks seeing the worst government-steered environmental disaster since the collapse of Communism late last century.

 

Massive Data Tampering Uncovered At NASA – Warmth, Cooling Disappears Due To Incompatibility With Models

Note: Due to the very positive feedback of this post, I’ve decided to leave it up at the top spot for another day. -PG
==============================================

In 1981, James Hansen was the Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.  He was also the lead author of a seminal paper published in the prestigious journal Science entitled “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide“.  In the paper, Hansen and his colleagues reported (and illustrated with multiple graphs) the widely accepted 100-year (~1880-1980) record of hemispheric and global temperature changes.  At the time, most climate scientists were reporting that the Northern Hemisphere’s (NH) temperatures had undergone a rapid warming of between +0.8 and +1.0°C between the 1880s and 1940.  Then, after 1940 and through 1970, NH temperatures were reported to have dropped by about -0.5 to -0.6°C, a decades-long cooling trend which at the time had fomented widespread debate about global cooling in the scientific community.

Like their peers, NASA’s Hansen and his co-authors indicated that the Northern Hemisphere had warmed by ~0.8°C between the 1880s and 1940, and then cooled by ~0.5°C between 1940 and 1970.

A graph of “observed temperature” for the Northern Hemisphere was included in the paper to illustrate these climatic trends.

Today, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies is directed by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, a trained mathematician.  (James Hansen retired from the position in 2013.)   Schmidt’s version of the Northern Hemisphere’s temperature record for 1880-1980 looks vastly different than what his predecessor had illustrated in 1981.  Instead of leaving the historically observed temperatures alone, NASA has invented new ways to portray the pre-1981 temperature history of the Northern Hemisphere.

2017 NASA Hemispheric Graph

To subjectively summarize the wholesale adjustments to past temperature data, the +0.8°C warming between 1880 and 1940 has been reduced to +0.35°C.  The -0.5°C cooling between 1940 and 1970 has been reduced to -0.2°C.  And in NASA’s 2017 version of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, 1980 is now even with 1940.  Neither year was warmer than the other.  In the original 1981 NASA graph, however, 1980 was -0.3°C colder than 1940.

If the originally recorded observations for the Northern Hemisphere had not been erased from the temperature record, the pre-1981 trend would look like it does in the graph below (black trend line).  In other words, if the temperature observations as they appeared in 1981 had not been tampered with, it would be clear the Northern Hemisphere’s surface temperatures have undergone an oscillation, or warming-cooling-warming cycle, with no significant net change from the earlier warming amplitude or rate (1880-1940) to the more recent one (1980s-present).

Why Did NASA Eliminate The Early 20th Century Warming And Mid-20th Century Cooling?

The fundamental reason why NASA has manipulated past temperature data is so that the historical climate record may conform to the IPCC models that presume variations in surface temperatures are predominantly determined by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.  Fossil fuels consumption in particular and anthropogenic CO2 emissions in general plodded along steadily at about 1 GtC/year (gigatons of carbon per year) during the 1900 to 1945 period.  Then, after 1945, human emissions exploded.  They reached 4 GtC/year by the 1970s, 6 GtC/year by the 1990s, and 10 GtC/year by 2014.

NASA recognized that (a) anthropogenic CO2 emissions were not rising much at all while the surface temperatures were rising dramatically (1880s-1940s), and that (b) surface temperatures were cooling (1940s to 1970s) while anthropogenic CO2 emissions were surging upwards.  These observed trends did not support climate modeling; instead, they undermined the models.  So, to counteract this, NASA has undergone a decades-long effort to change past temperature data that do not adhere to modeled expectations.  In other words, NASA has sought to suppress the 1880s to 1940 warming amplitude and rate, and they have warmed up the 3 decades of NH cooling by about +0.3°C.  In this way, the overall 1880s-present trend will look linear rather than oscillatory, and it will also look more and more like the trends in anthropogenic CO2 emissions (above graph).   When the facts don’t fit the models, NASA apparently changes the facts.

Non-Adjusted Temperature Data Appear To Correlate With 20th Century Solar Forcing

In a paper just published in the journal New Astronomy, scientists Yndestad and Solheim (2017) have released a reconstruction of solar activity (Total Solar Irradiance, or TSI) for 1700-2013.  As explained here, the 20th Century contained the so-called Modern Grand Maximum of very high solar activity.

Taking a closer look at the 20th Century solar irradiance trend only, the (a) rapid rise in TSI for 1900-1950, the (b) dramatic drop in TSI during the 1950s to 1970s, and then the (c) abrupt 1980s to early 2000s increase in TSI all seem to correspond generally to the non-adjusted temperature trend for the Northern Hemisphere — prior to the NASA temperature data manipulation.


In fact, many other recently published surface temperature reconstructions indicate that the warming-cooling-warming oscillatory 20th Century trend may correlate with this solar forcing trajectory.

Rydval et al. (2017), for example, include several graphs of surface temperatures for Northern Hemisphere locations that show warming and cooling periods largely correspond to multi-decadal- and centennial-scale records of high (warming) and low (cooling) solar activity.  In the NH graphs below, for example, notice how the temperature records follow a similar track that correspond with the non-adjusted (pre-1981) NASA temperature record: (a) rapid warming from around 1900 to the mid-20th Century, (b) rapid cooling for a few decades, and then (c) another warming ascent from about the 1970s or 1980s onward.  Also notice that the mid-20th Century peak warmth is not significantly different than the warmth achieved in the last decade or two, again affirming an oscillatory pattern rather than a linear one.


Rydval et al., 2017

“[T]he recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s … [E]xtreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. … There is reasonable agreement in general between the records regarding protracted cold periods which occur during the LIA and specifically around the Maunder solar minimum centred on the second half of the seventeenth century and to some extent also around the latter part of the fifteenth century coinciding with part of the Spörer minimum (Usoskin et al. 2007).”


Temperature records for many other regions within the Northern Hemisphere (as well as several from the Southern Hemisphere) may also align with the original (non-adjusted) NASA temperature observations and recent reconstructions of TSI.   So as not to cross the threshold of excessiveness, only a small portion of the many similarly correlative warming-cooling-warming temperature reconstructions available are included below.


Yamanouchi, 2011 (Arctic)

Box et al., 2009  (Greenland Ice Sheet)

Hasholt et al., 2016  (Southeast Greenland)

“We determined that temperatures for the ablation measurement periods in late July to early September were similar in both 1933 and the recent period [1990s – present], indicating that the temperature forcing of ablation within the early warm period and the present are similar.”

Kobashi et al., 2011  (Greenland Ice Sheet)

Chafik et al., 2016  (Atlantic, North)

de Jong and de Steur, 2016 (Irminger Sea, North Atlantic)

Reynolds et al., 2017 (Central England, North Atlantic)

Saenger et al, 2009 (Bahamas, Northern Hemisphere)

 

De Jong et al., 2016  (Andes, South America)

“[T]he reconstruction…shows that recent warming (until AD 2009) is not exceptional in the context of the past century. For example, the periods around AD 1940 and from AD 1950–1955 were warmer. This is also shown in the reanalysis data for this region and was also observed by Neukom et al. (2010b) and Neukom and Gergis (2011) for Patagonia and central Chile. Similarly, based on tree ring analyses from the upper tree limit in northern Patagonia, Villalba et al. (2003) found that the period just before AD 1950 was substantially warmer than more recent decades.”

O’Donnell et al., 2016 (Southeast Australia)

de Jong et al., 2013 (Chile)

Gouretski et al., 2012  (graph) (Global Ocean 0-20 m)


To summarize, then, there seems to be no scientific justification for NASA’s conspicuous temperature data tampering.  From all appearances, the removal and/or doctoring of observed temperature data from the pre-1981 period was a tendentious act designed to change the appearance of graphs to fit climate models that presuppose a deterministic anthropogenic influence.  NASA’s apparent manipulation of climate science endangers the reputation of scientists across all disciplines.  It should be stopped immediately before even more credibility is lost.

Failure…Hundreds Of Billions For Nothing As Germany CO2 Reductions Stagnant Almost 10 Years!

It’s good to see that I am not the only person looking critically at Germany’s rather inept attempt to switch over to green energy sources in order to reduce CO2 emissions.

The environmentalprogress.org site here presents a good overview of Germany’s recent performance when it comes to reducing so-called “greenhouse gases”. Unfortunately German citizens have not seen any success recently for the tens of billions of euros they are paying extra for the “Energiewende” (transition to renewable energy).

A new Environmental Progress analysis finds that “German emissions increased in 2016 for a second year in a row“, blaming the result on “the country closing one of its nuclear plants and replacing it with coal and natural gas“. Obviously wind and sun failed to step in and do the job.

Environmental Progress reports the shocking result:

Not only did new solar and wind not make up for the lost nuclear, the percentage of time during 2016 that solar and wind produced electricity declined dramatically.

Germany added a whopping 10 percent more wind turbine capacity and 2.5 percent more solar panel capacity between 2015 and 2016, but generated less than one percent more electricity from wind and generated one percent less electricity from solar.”

The site describes Germany’s wild variability that the country has to deal with producing power from sun and wind.

2016’s rise to 916 gigatonnes of CO2 extends Germany’s streak of failing to lower its CO2 emissions to 8 years. The following chart goes to 2014. The year 2015 saw 908 gigatonnes CO2 emissions compared to 902 in 2014.

germany-annual-co2-emissions-jpg-uba

Chart source: UBA Umweltbundesamt (Federal Office of the Environment).

This means Germany literally has made virtually no progress at all over the past decade. The latest jump in CO2 emissions make the chances of Germany reaching its 2020 CO2 reductions target even far more remote. Add to this that subsidies for wind and solar power recently have been watered down and the surge of up to 2 million refugees will boost demand for energy. Germany’s commitment to fulfilling the Paris Agreement is looking like a real farce.

Another fact that shows that solar and wind will never work: Environmental Progress points out that even if Germany adds 50% more solar panel capacity by 2030, it will boost solar’s share of power from 6% to 9 percent.

Germany’s Energiewende has only succeeded in massively elevating Germany’s consumer power prices, making its power almost twice as expensive as power in neighboring France, which relies heavily on nuclear. While France’s power is half the cost, the country also emits far less CO2 from electricity production:

Germany January 2017_v2.015.jpeg Chart source: http://www.environmentalprogress.org.

That’s what one would call success. Why some countries are still racing into the renewable energy foray despite the German debacle, remains a mystery.

Read all of the Environmental Progress report here.

 

Another Showcase Example Of Fake Science, Climate Propaganda By Germany’s SRF Public Radio

Correction: Reader Fred informs that the SRF is not a German radio station, but instead belongs to Switzerland: “And yes, all people living in Switzerland are forced to pay around 300 US dollars a year for that crap, even if you never watch or listen the SRF […] it is just another leftwing propaganda machine.”
==================================================

The German public radio and television network is funded by mandatory annual fees made by every German citizen. It is massive and it dominates the country’s media landscape. Unfortunately it is not at all objective and balanced, though it may be claimed to be so at Wikipedia and elsewhere.

German public television, for example, works closely with CNN. It is unabashed totally anti-Trump. On November 9 when it became clear that Trump would be the next president, total shock and meltdown spread across all of the German public media.

Like the BBC, German public media are also very much universally climate alarmist, insisting the science is settled (even though it is less so than ever today). Some have argued quite convincingly that Germany is now firmly under a media-political opinion dictatorship – but that’s a topic for another day.

The latest example of climate propaganda and fake science purveyed by the elitist German politico-media comes from SRF German public radio, so reports Africa-geology expert Dr. Sebastian Lüning at his Die kalte Sonne site.

===========================================

SRF Africa correspondent gets it all wrong in Ghana: Embarrassing mixing up of coastal processes and climate change

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

On December 7, 2016, Patrick Wülser at Radio SRF went off on weepy sea level climate alarmism:

Climate change in Ghana: The ocean is swallowing Totope piece by piece
What climate scientists are predicting is already happening in Ghana: The fishing village has already in part sunken into the sea.

Rising sea level and ever more powerful tidal waves are eating away at the coast of West Africa and threatening fishing villagers. The consequences of climate change and the construction of deep-sea harbors and dams have accelerated the erosion of the coastline over the past 20 years. The fishing village of Toto in Ghana has already in part sunken into the sea.”

A rather cheap piece of propaganda theater, as just a critical glance at the map will clearly shows that this village is located in the Volta Delta on a typical coastal sand dune island, which because of the sand dune shifting and sea erosion — also without sea level rise — is always undergoing change naturally. The sediment-transport processes in the region were already comprehensively described in detail back in 1998 by Nairn et al. (pdf here).

Back then coastal protection measures were proposed, but obviously were never implemented.

But there’s more to the story as the huge Volta-water reservoir is pressing down the entire area of the Volta-Delta and its Akosombo dam is preventing the Volta’s land mass from reaching its old Delta area. This means sea erosion can no longer be compensated. Therefore it is easy to demonstrate that the situation described in Totope/Ghana has very little to do with climate change and rising sea level rise, and in fact has much more to do with changed land-use and natural coastal erosion processes.

Moreover, this new SRF propaganda piece is only a rehash of an older Zeit article from 2012.

When one looks at the Wikipedia entry on Song(h)or-Lagune, one cannot find the claimed huge danger through climate change anywhere. Rather the concerned focus is much more on unsustainable use, e.g. through over-fishing, cutting down of the mangroves and drainage in order to create more farmland:

Threats and possible consequences

The main threats to the site exist as varied forms of excessive utilization. Some common cases are over-fishing, extreme harvesting of mangroves, extensive drainage and cultivation for farmland, heavy grazing by cattle and livestock, and an unsustainable level of salt winning. These threats are difficult to neutralize because the human communities surrounding the lagoon are largely poor and over-populated. In effect, the local people are dependent upon their harvesting of the lagoon for survival. Although ecotourism provides an ecologically friendly source of income, the practice is not extensive enough to sustain the local communities. Additional threats originate from the use of pesticides and herbicides, the damming of creeks and channels for the purpose of expanding infrastructure, and rubbish dumping.[16] These threats can and, in some instances, have had dire consequences. The breeding cycles of nesting species, like the several sea turtle species hosted by the lagoon, can be disturbed by exaggerated human activity. Furthermore, the eggs of such species are often trampled by grazing cattle and livestock. Another realized effect of human exploitation is the apparent shrinking of the lagoon, which can be easily observed in the satellite photo comparison shown at the opening of this article. Further disturbance of the lagoon could result in not only the loss of species that inhabit the site, but also the loss of nutritive and moderating benefits provided by the site. Aside from purifying ground water, acting as a reservoir for nutrients, and supporting the local food chain, the lagoon regulates water flow, staggers and lessens the effects of flooding, and disperses the extreme erosive forces exerted on the shore by the Atlantic Ocean.[17]

re

Germany’s Federal Accounting Office Slams Government For Out-Of-Control Electricity Costs

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) — Germany’s version of the Washington Post — reports here that the country’s Energiewende (transition to green energy) has been fraught with “serious errors” and that the government has lost control of its energy policy.

The FAZ cites a report released by the Bundesrechnungshof (federal accounting office).

Out-of-control costs

The report unloads criticism on Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who is also vice chancellor to Angela Merkel.

The federal accounting office report slams Gabriel’s Economics Ministry, concluding, that it “has no overview of the financial impacts of the Energiewende.” In short, the government has lost control over the project – similarly like it lost control of the construction of Hamburg’s Elbphilharmonie concert hall, which originally had been estimated to cost less than 80 million euros, but wound up costing a scandalous 789 million euros before finishing years behind schedule!

“Serious organizational deficiencies”

The accounting office report also accuses Germany’s energy policy of being fraught with “serious organizational deficiencies” that are “difficult to comprehend“.

In the earlier days of the Energiewende, proponents such as Green Party member Jürgen Trittin boasted that the green energy project would be affordable, costing the average German citizen about as much as the cost of “one scoop of ice cream each month“. Since then Germany’s electricity costs for consumers have exploded and are now among the highest in the world, averaging near 30 cents per kilowatt hour.

The stability of the supply has also taken a serious hit.

Price spiral continues

Even worse, the prices of German electricity bare projected to increase substantially over the coming years. The FAZ adds:

The federal accounting office sees a risk that it will get more expensive to advance the Energiewende.”

Germany’s shocking electricity price spiral shows no signs of slowing. A week ago the online Kieler Nachrichten here reported in a separate story that “electric bills for consumers will be significantly higher in 2017” and that if things do not change, prices will continue to rise until at least 2023.

 

Scientists Find Climate’s ‘Cause Of Causes’…Highest Solar Activity In 4000 Years Just Ended…Cooling Begins In 2025

“It is generally accepted that the climate warms during periods of strong solar activity (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period) and cools during periods of low solar activity (e.g., the Little Ice Age).” Lyu et al., 2016

Graph Source: WoodForTrees.org
Scientists are increasingly tuning out the claims that the Earth’s temperatures are predominantly shaped by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, or that future climate is destined to be alarmingly warm primarily due to the rise in trace atmospheric gases.  Instead, solar scientists are continuing to advance our understanding of solar activity and its effect on the Earth system, and their results are progressively suggestive of robust correlations between solar variability and climate changes.
For example, in 2016 alone, there were at least 132 peer-reviewed scientific papers documenting a significant solar influence on climate.  Among them there were 18 papers that directly connected centennial-scale periods of low solar activity (the Little Ice Age) with cooler climates, and periods of high solar activity (the Medieval Warm Period and the Modern Warm Period [20th Century]) with high solar activity levels.  Another 10 papers warned of an impending solar minimum and concomitant cooling period in the coming decades.
And this trend of scientists linking climate changes to solar forcing mechanisms — and bypassing an anthropogenic explanation — continues to rage on in 2017.

A Seminal New Paper Unveils The ‘Cause Of Causes’ Of Climate Change

In their groundbreaking New Astronomy paper, Norwegian professors Harald Yndestad and Jan-Erik Solheim indicate that the modern (1940-2015) Grand Maximum of very high solar activity — the highest solar activity levels in 4,000 years — has just ended.   Within 10 years, or by 2025, these scientists project the next solar minimum period (which will be similar in character to the late 18th Century’s Dalton Minimum) will exert its cooling effect on the Earth’s climate.
Yndestad and Solheim have been working together on this project for more than 2 years.  Although Dr. Yndestad was “skeptical about the idea of ​​sunspots as climate indicators” initially, the two discovered “for the first time” a strong long-term correlation between Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and sunspots for periods of 84 and 210 years, confirming the “Cause of causes” of climate change.  Details can be found in their illuminating new paper.

Yndestad and Solheim, 2017

Summary

“Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065. … Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods.”

1940-2015 Grand Maximum Of Solar Activity, Highest In 4,000 Years, Just Ended

“Studies that employ cosmogenic isotope data and sunspot data indicate that we are currently leaving a grand activity maximum, which began in approximately 1940 and is now declining (Usoskin et al., 2003; Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008). Because grand maxima  and minima occur on centennial or millennial timescales, they can only be investigated using proxy data, i.e., solar activity reconstructed from 10Be and 14C time-calibrated data. The conclusion is that the activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago (Usoskin et al., 2003). Nineteen grand maxima have been identified by Usoskin et al. (2007) in an 11,000-yr series.”

Solar Activity Minimum/Maximum Periods Linked To Colder/Warmer Climates

“Twenty-seven grand minima are identified with a total duration of 1900 years, or approximately 17% of the time during the past 11,500 years (Usoskin et al., 2007). An adjustment-free reconstruction of the solar activity over the last three millennia confirms four grand minima since the year 1000: Maunder (1640–1720), Spörer (1390–1550), Wolf (1270–1340) and Oort (1010–1070) (Usoskin et al., 2007). The Dalton minimum (1790–1820) does not fit the definition of a grand minimum; it is more likely a regular deep minimum that is observed once per century or an immediate state between the grand minimum and normal activity (Usoskin, 2013).  Temperature reconstructions for the last millennium for the Northern Hemisphere (Ljungquist, 2010) show a medieval maximum temperature at approximately the year 1000 [Medieval Warm Period] and a cooling period starting at approximately 1350 [Little Ice Age], immediately after the Wolf minimum and lasting nearly 500 years, with the coldest period in what is referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA) at the time of the Maunder minimum. A cold period was also observed during the time of the Dalton minimum. The Maunder and the Dalton minima are associated with less solar activity and colder climate periods. In this investigation, minimum solar activity periods may serve as a reference for the identified minimum irradiations in the TSI oscillations.”

Other scientists have just published papers in peer-reviewed journals documenting a robust correlation between solar activity and surface temperatures in the paleoclimate record.  Zawiska et al. (2017) have found that the amplitudes of the warming and cooling periods — modulated by changes in solar activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) — during the last 1,000 years far exceeded the temperature changes that have occurred since about 1950, or since anthropogenic CO2 emissions began rising at an accelerating pace.  For example, these scientists point out that within a matter of 100 years (1050-1150 to 1150-1250), summer temperatures rose from 9.2°C during a low solar activity period (Oort Minimum) to 12.0°C in concert with the subsequent rise in solar activity.
Zawiska and colleagues also point out that the rise in modern era temperatures began around 1800, not the 20th century.  In fact, they find that temperatures rose by 4.3°C (from 8.5°C to 12.8°C) within 75 years starting at the beginning of the 19th century (+0.57°C per decade), and this warming “correlates with the positive NAO index and increased solar activity.”   The authors further indicate that the warming in the 20th/21st centuries has been “less pronounced” by comparison.
During the 19th century, of course, anthropogenic CO2 emissions rates were but a tiny fraction of what has been observed since the mid-20th century, strongly suggesting that temperature changes associated with natural variations in atmospheric/oceanic cycles (NAO) and solar activity far exceed the forcing strength of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Zawiska et al., 2017

Summary

“The chironomid-based temperature reconstruction from Lake Atnsjøen in Eastern Norway with mean resolution of 30 years provided evidence that large-scale processes, such as the NAO fluctuations and solar activity modified local climate, and subsequently affected lakes functioning. The three minor cooling periods were reconstructed in the first half of the Millennium: 1050–1150, 1270–1370, 1440–1470 CE, that coincide with solar activity minima: Oort, Wulf, and Spörer respectively. Furthermore, a two peaked cooling period in the second half of the Millennium was identified that coincided with the LIA. These changes co-occurred with the prevailing negative NAO index.”

Cold Periods (Temp. Average 9.2 °C) Correlate With Low Solar Activity, NAO

“At 1050–1150 CE the first of the short-term cooling periods of the last Millennium began and the mean July temperature in the Lake Atnsjøen region dropped to 9.2 °C. The beginning of this cooling coincided with the Oort solar activity minimum. The reconstructed climate deterioration agrees very well with temperatures revealed for Europe (PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013) and Finland (Luoto and Helama, 2010), and partly with tree-ring based temperature trends from Northern Sweden (Osborn and Briffa, 2006). … The climate cooling around 1100 CE has been observed also in Northern America, Russia and Central Asia (Osborn and Briffa, 2006; Wanner et al., 2008), but intrestingly not in Greenland (Osborn and Briffa, 2006). … The beginning of the 1270–1370 CE cooling coincide with Wulf solar activity minimum suggesting that the climate was responding to Sun activity. The climate cooling synchronous to this solar minimum had almost global range and it has been recorded from Europe, Arctic, North America and Antarctica (Osborn and Briffa, 2006; PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013) but again not in Greenland (Osborn and Briffa, 2006). … The beginning of the 1440–1470 CE cold period is synchronous to the pronounce negative NAO phase (Trouet et al., 2009). … Maunder solar minimum caused a very deep negative NAO index phase (Shindell et al., 2001), which consecutively lead to significant drop in the reconstructed temperature.”

Warm Periods (Temp. Average 12°C) Correlate With High Solar Activity, NAO 

“According to presented reconstruction, climate shifted towards warmer conditions during 1150–1250 CE, as mean July temperature raised to 12 °C. Studies from Finland and Sweden also indicate short climate warming around 1200 CE (Luoto and Helama, 2010; Osborn and Briffa, 2006)  … The above described time interval 1000–1250 CE coincides with the MCA [Medieval Climate Anomaly] that occurred around 950–1250 CE and was regarded as a generally warmer and drier period (Mann et al., 2009).
The temperature reconstruction from Lake Atnsjøen indicates that recent and ongoing climate warming began already in 1800 CE following the LIA. Temperatures increased very fast, from 8.5 to 12.8 °C during the first 75 years, but in the 20th century the increase became less pronounced.
The warming at the beginning of 19th century in the region of Lake Atnsjøen coincides with a reconstruction from Southern Finland (Luoto, 2013), and a record from Northern Sweden (Osborn and Briffa, 2006).  Its onset correlates with the positive NAO index and increased solar activity.”


Another scientist just published a paper in the journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology that also concludes solar activity drove variations in the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the centennial-scale cooling periods corresponding to the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder sunspot minimums.
In his graph of Western Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), notice how Park (2017) also documents a dramatic warming event occurred beginning about 1800, with the SST warming rate and amplitude far exceeding that which has occurred in recent decades, once again demonstrating the lack of correlation between anthropogenic CO2 emissions and surface temperatures relative to natural variation.

Park, 2017

“Late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia was likely driven by ENSO variation.   Our tree pollen index of warmness (TPIW) shows important late Holocene cold events associated with low sunspot periods such as Oort, Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder Minimum. Comparisons among standard Z-scores of filtered TPIW, ΔTSI, and other paleoclimate records from central and northeastern China, off the coast of northern Japan, southern Philippines, and Peru all demonstrate significant relationships [between solar activity and climate]. This suggests that solar activity drove Holocene variations in both East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, the latter seems to have predominantly controlled the coastal climate of East Asia to the extent that the influence of precession was nearly muted during the late Holocene.”


The year has just begun, and, in addition to the 3 papers introduced above, there have already been several other 2017 scientific papers published in scientific journals documenting a robust correlation between solar activity and climate changes.  With the rapidly growing body of evidence that has been accumulating within the last few years, it can no longer be said that it is “settled” science that the Sun and its modulation of natural atmospheric/oceanic oscillations (NAO, ENSO, PDO, AMO) has only a negligible influence on climate.  The claim that we human beings predominantly drive climate changes with our CO2 emissions is increasingly being challenged, if not categorically undermined, in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Sun et al., 2017

“[A]t least six centennial droughts occurred at about 7300, 6300, 5500, 3400, 2500 and 500 cal yr BP. Our findings are generally consistent with other records from the ISM [Indian Summer Monsoon]  region, and suggest that the monsoon intensity is primarily controlled by solar irradiance on a centennial time scale. This external forcing may have been amplified by cooling events in the North Atlantic and by ENSO activity in the eastern tropical Pacific, which shifted the ITCZ further southwards. The inconsistency between local rainfall amount in the southeastern margin of the QTP and ISM intensity may also have been the result of the effect of solar activity on the local hydrological cycle on the periphery of the plateau.”

Deng et al., 2017

The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900–1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850–present), which contradicts previous studies. … As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550–1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity.”

Zielhofer et al., 2017

Western Mediterranean Holocene record of abrupt hydro-climatic changes … Imprints of North Atlantic meltwater discharges, NAO and solar forcing …Early Holocene winter rain minima are in phase with cooling events and millennial-scale meltwater discharges in the sub-polar North Atlantic. … [A] significant hydro-climatic shift at the end of the African Humid Period (∼5 ka) indicates a change in climate forcing mechanisms. The Late Holocene climate variability in the Middle Atlas features a multi-centennial-scale NAO-type pattern, with Atlantic cooling and Western Mediterranean winter rain maxima generally associated with solar minima.”

Matveev et al., 2017

“An increase in atmospheric moisture for the warm period of the year (May–September) since 1890s, and mean annual temperatures since the 1950s was identified. During the same time period, there was a marked increase in amplitude of the annual variations for temperature and precipitation. … These fluctuations are consistent with 10–12-years Schwabe–Wolf, 22-years Hale, and the 32–36-years Bruckner Solar Cycles. There was an additional relationship found between high-frequency (short-period) climate fluctuations, lasting for about three years, and 70–90-years fluctuations of the moisture regime in the study region corresponding to longer cycles.”

Europe Cold Only A Preview: Meteorologist Bastardi Warns Of “Weather Headlines Coming Out Of Europe”!

At today’s Weatherbell Daily Update, meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks at the forecast over the next 15 days for Europe. The following chart depicts the forecast accumulated snowfall by January 27, 2017.

Image cropped from Weatherbell 11 January 20017 Daily Update.

As the chart makes clear, plenty of winter snow is in the pipeline. The cold that Europe experienced earlier this month was likely just a preview of remains ahead for the continent. The widespread snow cover threatens to send nighttime temperatures to harsh levels. Bastardi even goes on to say that the snowfall over Europe will be “a big headline maker”.

Bastardi, a veteran in the forecasting business, also shows the GFS temperature outlook for January 22-27, which will follow 10 days of below normal tempertaures:

Almost the entire European continent will gripped by cold during the period. Joe promises that we are going to be seeing weather headlines coming out of Europe, and may well be similar to what happened in 2013.

That likely means a very late spring. The gardening industry should take note.

 

-30°C In Poland — Europe Arctic Cold Blast Claims Close To 60 Lives As Media Remain Mostly Silent!

Reader Indomitable Snowman sent a link to an AccuWeather report telling us of the intense winter weather gripping eastern Europe and how it has claimed close to 60 lives thus far. German weather site wetteronline.de also reports of close to 60 cold deaths so far from the current Eastern European cold blast.

Although we get scattered reports of cold deaths here in Europe, it’s been tough to find a total tally from the German global warming-devout mainstream media.

Accuweather writes:

Millions of people from Baltic states and Poland southward to the Mediterranean Sea have endured dangerous cold and bouts of snow. Thousands of refugees have also had to endure the bitter cold which is expected to last through at least Thursday. Temperatures plummeted to the lowest level in years in Warsaw, Minsk, Budapest and Moscow.”

Rescue from cold for the birds?

Entering the German term “Kältetote” (cold deaths) in Google, one gets few reports of the total deaths in Europe (at the time this post was written) from the German mainstream media. Online daily Bild did wrote here 2 days ago how the intensely cold conditions posed a dangerous threat to refugees in transit. Indeed this was true, and it still is.

Yet, another site here seem to think the real story of the day was how one man rescued a bird from freezing to death — as if poor citizens do not matter so much?

Die Welt reports 50 victims

To its credit, the online Die Welt here reported on the eastern European cold deaths earlier today:

Especially in the east and south of the continent several dozen people have frozen to death, in Belarus, Ukraine, in Hungary and Slovakia, in Bosnia, Austria, Belgium and Italy. Especially hard hit is Poland, where the mercury fell at times to -30°C. […] In total the cold wave in January has claimed so far about 50 victims, since November the number is close to 70 people.”

The most vulnerable unable to afford heat

Moreover it appears that Europe’s socialist, compassionate systems aren’t really doing their job of helping society’s weakest. Die Welt comments that “pensioners, the unemployed and the homeless often cannot afford heating” and thus are the ones paying the price of a low-energy society with their lives.

Die Welt has been reporting regularly on the story, writing four days ago how the cold was claiming the lives of refugees and the homeless.

Cold wave forecast to spread, continue

Unfortunately there is going to be no let up in people freezing to death. The cold and wintry mix will spread across central Europe by the weekend, according to wetteronline.de.

Western Europeans need to brace themselves. Image: wetteronline.de

The German weather site writes:

A powerful high over the Baltic Sea and a strong Mediterranean low will flood the continent with Siberian cold air across all of Central Europe next week. Even highs of -10°C are within the range of possibility. […] Temperatures will fall into the cellar. With the exception of coastal areas and maybe northwest Germany, permanent frost conditions will persist for almost the entire week.. In the south high temperatures will range from -10 to -5°C.”