Counterintuitive: More Vaccinations Leads To More Infections, Hospitalizations, Deaths

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The narrative that says the vaccinated are shielded from COVID infection, hospitalization, and death is undermined by observational evidence that says the opposite.

Many new studies and data analyses from across the world show that more vaccinated a region is, the more new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths there are.

COVID-19 infections

Data from 68 countries show that there appears to be “no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days” (Subramanian and Kumar, 2021). For example, countries with 75% vaccinated populations have higher infection rates than those with 10% vaccinated.

Image Source: Subramanian and Kumar, 2021

As of 2 September (2021), US counties with 0-5%, 5-10%, or 10-15% vaccinated all had lower new COVID case increases per 7 days than counties with 45-60% vaccinated. Four of the top 5 counties with the highest percentage of the population vaccinated (84-99.9%) were classified by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) as “High” transmission counties.

Image Source: Subramanian and Kumar, 2021

It should not be surprising that infectiveness has not been reduced with more vaccinations, as the COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer) effectiveness in preventing infection is just 39%. Effectiveness was advertised to be 96% when vaccines were first introduced.

Image Source: Subramanian and Kumar, 2021

A visual demonstration of vaccine effects can be observed with worldometers data. Notice that new cases begin rising soon after mass vaccination begins.

Image Source: worldometers

In the US, 80% of the country’s 5.6 million seniors eligible for Medicare (65+) were fully vaccinated as of August, 2021. But in the 6 months (February to August) it took for the percentage of 2-dose vaccination to rise from 0 to 80%,  71% of those testing positive for COVID were fully vaccinated (naturalnews.com).

Image Source: naturalnews.com

As early as July, data from Singapore, Iceland, Israel, and many other countries indicated that new infections were primarily in the vaccinated populations.

Image Sources: Boston GlobeBoston GlobeReuters

Hospitalizations

Data out of Israel show that as of August, 59% of those hospitalized with COVID were fully vaccinated (Wadman, 2021).

Image Source: Wadman, 2021

In the UK (Wales), 80% of hospitalized COVID patients were fully vaccinated (September, 2021), whereas under 13% of the unvaccinated were. Interestingly, the BBC insists this does not mean vaccines are not highly effective in preventing hospitalization.

Image Source: BBC.com

Per a data analysis from the RioTimes, the vaccinated are 1.7 times more likely (2.9% vs. 1.7%) to be hospitalized than the unvaccinated.

Image Source: RioTimes

Deaths

As with new cases, the data show that in countries across the world death rates rise after mass vaccinations begin.

 

Image Source: worldometers

According to the UK government’s Public Health England, as the percentage of fully vaccinated UK citizens gradually rose from 0% to 75% from 1 February to 12 September (2021), 1,820 of 2,542 deaths monitored by PHE were in the fully vaccinated.

Image Source: Public Health England

Singapore is an interesting case study in vaccine effectiveness with regard to death prevention. Last year Singapore endured only 2 deaths from 14 June to 27 November. That’s 2 deaths in about 165 days. Of course, the country was 0% vaccinated during this period.

Image Source: worldometers

Now, with 80% of the country fully vaccinated, deaths have exploded to 8, 10, 11 per day. About 65% of these recent deaths are in the vaccinated.

Image Source: Channel News Asia

Image Source: The Straits Times

Outbreaks occur even with 96% fully vaccinated and wearing N-95 masks

A new study (Shitrit et al., 2021) “challenges the assumption that high universal vaccination rates will lead to herd immunity.”

Recently a COVID outbreak occurred in an Israeli hospital that involved 248 N-95 mask-wearing people; 238 (96.2%) of them were fully vaccinated.

Of the 42 COVID infections, 38 were in the fully vaccinated. One was partially vaccinated. The 3 unvaccinated cases were “mild” or asymptomatic. All 8 of the severely ill and all 5 of the deaths occurred in the fully vaccinated.

The limitations of COVID vaccines in preventing infection, hospitalization, and death appears to be vastly underreported in the mainstream media.

Image Source: Shitrit et al., 2021



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Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years

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In the latest climate and energy video by German site Die kalte Sonne, media claims of increasingly stronger and frequent hurricanes are examined closely and reach the conclusion: “Over the past 170 years, hurricanes have not occurred more frequently or gotten more intense.”

In the wake of hurricane Ida, a number of mainstream media outlets, like German ZDF, blared that hurricanes have gotten worse over the recent decades – due to global warming. But that statement has been found to be driven more by alarmism and activism, and not based on data.

New paper by Vecchi et al

Citing a new paper by Vecchi et al, 2021, appearing in the journal Nature, Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century, the authors found: “The homogenized basin-wide HU and MH record does not show strong evidence of a century-scale increase in either MH frequency or MH/HU ratio associated with the century-scale, greenhouse-gas-induced warming of the planet.”

Hurricane recording before satellite observation started in 1972 was based on eye witness observation, meaning a number of hurricanes before 1972 never got recorded. After adjusting, the authors came up with the following chart:

Source: Nature

The adjusted median frequency for major hurricanes was higher in the 1920s and 1950s than after 2000.

Nothing unusual today

The authors suggest that hurricane frequency is in large part modulated by the natural Atlantic oceanic variability:

After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.”

Despite the 1°C global warming seen since the mid 18th century, hurricane intensity and frequency remained well with the range of natural variability and have not trended upwards. “If anything, it’s a decrease,” reports Die kalte Sonne.




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Thunderous New “Atmosphere” Publication: “Warming Of Last 20 Years Mainly Caused By Cloud Changes”

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Science never quits. New findings by German researchers challenge IPCC claim that greenhouse gases have driven recent warming. Data point to low cloud cover changes. 
===================================

Warming of the last 20 years mainly caused by cloud cover changes

By Fritz Vahrenholt and Hans-Rolf Dübal
(Translated, edited and subheadings by P. Gosselin)

Hans-Rolf Dübal and Fritz Vahrenholt have investigated the Earth’s radiation balance over the past 20 years in a peer-reviewed publication appearing in ” Atmosphere”.

The net radiative flux, i.e. the difference between solar irradiance and longwave and shortwave radiation, determines the change in the energy content of the climate system. If it is positive, the Earth is warming; if it is negative, it means cooling. The NASA-operated satellite-based CERES project has now been providing such radiation data, as well as data on the evolution of cloud cover in temporal and spatial resolution for two decades. These data are determined both in relation to an altitude of approx. 20 km (TOA = “Top of Atmosphere”), and also in relation to the Earth’s surface.

This publication: “Radiative Energy flux variation from 2001 – 2020“, Dübal, H.-R.; Vahrenholt, F., appearing this week in Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1297 has brought to light a surprising result for climate science: the warming of the Earth in the last 20 years is mainly due to a higher permeability of clouds for shortwave solar radiation. During the period, shortwave radiation has strongly decreased (see figure) and this equally for the northern and southern hemisphere (NH and SH). With solar irradiance remaining nearly constant, this means that more shortwave radiation reached the Earth’s surface, contributing to warming.

The long-wave back radiation (the so-called greenhouse effect) contributed only to a lesser extent to the warming. It was even compensated to a large extent by the also increasing permeability of the clouds for long-wave radiation emanating from the earth. The authors came to this clear conclusion after evaluating the CERES radiation data.

Net positive energy influx due to less low clouds

NASA researchers led by Norman Loeb, along with Finnish researcher Antero Ollila, had already recently pointed out that shortwave solar radiation increased from 2005 to 2019 due to the decrease in low clouds. Dübal and Vahrenholt now have examined TOA and ground-level radiation fluxes for the entire period and related them to changes in cloud cover. The net energy influx was positive throughout the period, increasing from 0.6 W/m² to 0.75 W/m² from 2001 to 2020.

The 20-year average was 0.8 W/m². The next chart shows the drivers behind this change and these are clearly in the area of shortwave radiation in the cloudy areas, which account for about 2/3 of the Earth’s surface (SW Cloudy Area, +1.27 W/m²). This is in contrast to the assumption presented by the IPCC in its latest report that the warming due to the increase of longwave back radiation was solely due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

Radiation flux differences modulated by cloud cover changes

The IPCC attributes 100% of the warming to this effect and justifies it with model calculations. However, the analysis of the measured data by Dübal and Vahrenholt show that the warming due to the decreased shortwave radiation (1.4 W/m²) and the increased longwave radiation (1.1 W/m²) is mainly due to the cloud effect.

Climate system enthalpy

The authors also considered the effect of this radiative excess on the heat content of the climate system for a longer period since 1750, where “enthalpy” means the sum of heat, work, and the latent heat, i.e., heat of evaporation of water, heat of melting of ice, energetic change of the biosphere (plant growth), and so on. Since about 90% of this enthalpy remains as heat in the oceans, conclusions about enthalpy evolution can also be drawn by looking at long-term ocean heat content (OHC).

Good agreement was found between these two independent datasets for the period 2001-2020. Moreover, existing OHC data were evaluated for earlier, longer periods to provide an overall picture. This shows that warming since 1750 has not been continuous, but has occurred in heating spurts, designated A, B, and C, during each of which a high net radiative flux (0.7 to 0.8 W/m²) acted for 20-30 years, interspersed with milder periods.

The onset of these heating episodes coincided with the change in sign of another known natural climate factor, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). The crucial question, whether the present heating phase C will soon come to an end as in cases A and B, or whether it will continue, can only be decided on the basis of longer observations and must therefore remain open.

Decreasing cloudiness since 2000

To investigate the beginning of Phase C around the year 2000, further datasets were used, especially the cloudiness measurements of EUMETSAT, a European satellite project. Here it can be seen that the beginning of phase C is accompanied by a decrease in cloudiness, coinciding with the above-mentioned change in sign of the AMO. From the radiation measurements it can be deduced that 2% less cloud cover means about 0.5 W/m² more net radiation flux.

This could explain most of the 0.8 W/m² mentioned above.

Cloud changes stronger than greenhouse effect

This is also corroborated by the analysis of the near-surface radiation balance. Here an increase of the greenhouse effect is found, which correlates well with the increase of the greenhouse gases water vapor and CO2, but only for the “clear sky” areas. This correlation does not apply to the cloud-covered areas, which make up about 2/3 of the earth. Interesting is the statement on the greenhouse effect.

“We could prove the increased greenhouse effect of the sum of all greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2 etc.) under ‘clear sky’ conditions with 1.2 W/m² increase in the last 20 years,” says Hans-Rolf Dübal. “However, on an area-weighted basis, this increase is overcompensated by the increasing radiation of longwave radiation in the cloudy area’s amounting to -1.48 W/m².”

The time span of 20 years is still too short to decide conclusively whether the current heating phase is a temporary or permanent development. In the former case, climate projections need to be fundamentally revised. The physical mechanism that led to the cloud thinning is discussed differently in the literature.

“The cloud changes can be triggered by a decrease in aerosols, by atmospheric warming due to natural causes (e.g., the AMO or the PDO), by anthropogenic warming due to CO2, or by a combination of these individual factors,” says Fritz Vahrenholt. “However, one thing can already be stated: the warming of the last 20 years has been caused more by change in clouds than by the classical greenhouse effect.”




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Leading German Legal Scholar: Freedom In Exchange For Vaccination “Unconstitutional…Violates Fundamental Rights”

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Legal opinion: “Unconstitutionality of indirect COVID-19 vaccination requirements“.

Rules indirectly mandating vaccinations in exchange for freedom violates Germany’s Fundamental Constitutional Law, expert legal scholar Prof. Dr. Dietrich Murswiek writes in recently published 111-page legal opinion. 

Fundamental rights violated

A number of rules pertaining to restrictions of persons recovered from COVID 19 and especially the unvaccinated tested persons with paid testing who incur a loss of earnings compensation in Germany are incompatible with the Fundamental Constitutional Law and violate the fundamental rights of those affected. That is the result of a legal opinion of the Freiburg constitutional attorney Prof. Dr. Dietrich Murswiek,

“All disadvantages of unvaccinated persons must be abolished immediately – they are simply unconstitutional,” Murswiek said.

The restrictions on freedom imposed by rules for persons recovered from Covid 19 and those unvaccinated but and testing negative can no longer be justified and therefore violate the right to general freedom of action as well as other fundamental rights. The official aim of these measures is to curb covid-19 disease in order to avoid overloading intensive care units.

However, there is no such danger.

Freedom is guaranteed, and not granted authorities by fulfilling criteria

If rules for unvaccinated persons — those recovered from COVID or testing negative — are to be used to minimize serious illnesses and deaths, the aim is not to avert danger but to optimize health protection in the sense of risk prevention. For this purpose, the freedom of people who are not responsible for these risks must not be restricted.

“According to the Fundamental Law, freedom is guaranteed to individuals by virtue of their human dignity,” writes Murswiek. “He or she does not receive it from the authorities only when he can prove that he fulfills criteria defined by the state for his harmlessness.”

Indirect compulsory vaccination “disproportionate”

The indirect compulsory vaccination exercised on the unvaccinated is disproportionate because it drastically restricts the right of self-determination of the persons concerned with regard to their physical integrity and imposes potentially serious life and health risks on them. For their own protection against COVID-19, the state may not force people.

“For the protection of others, there is basically no need to compel vaccination, because those who are vaccinated are already protected by the vaccination.”

Vaccination as “gateway to freedom” is “cynical”

Withholding compensation for loss of earnings for quarantined unvaccinated people restricts freedoms even further. With this measure, the state defines vaccination as the “gateway to freedom” in a particularly clear and cynical way. It becomes a prerequisite for exercising liberties, although there is no constitutionally viable justification for it. This reverses the The German Fundamental Constitutional Law’s understanding of freedom: the individual is no longer free by virtue of his or her human dignity, but is free because he or she submits to a state request – the request to be vaccinated.

Solid legal argument

The expert legal opinion can be accessed on the website of the Initiative freie Impfentscheidung e.V.: https://impfentscheidung.online/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Gutachten-Die-Verfassungswidrigkeit-des-indirekten-Corona-Impfzwangs.pdf. A brief summary of the expert opinion and the chapter summary from the 100-page legal opinion are also available (in German).

Contact: vorstand@initiative-freie-impfentscheidung.de Telephone: (+49) 821-742165




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Antarctic Temperatures Were ‘Up To 5°C Above Modern’ From 12,000–2,000 Years BP

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A new study indicates that from 4,000 years ago until as recently as 1,500 years ago, or when CO2 levels ranged between 255 and 270 ppm, lake levels in Antarctica were as high as 60 meters above today’s levels. This coincided with “warmer-than-modern paleoclimate throughout the Holocene.” 

During the last 2,000 years, Antarctica’s temperatures have been steadily cooling (Zhang et al., 2021).

Image Source: Zhang et al., 2021

The cooling has continued during recent decades, with East Antarctica cooling -2.8°C and West Antarctica cooling -1.68°C since 1979 (Zhu et al., 2021). The Antarctic Peninsula has been cooling since 1999 (Sancho et al., 2017, Oliva et al., 2017, Turner et al., 2016).

Image Source: Zhu et al., 2021

From 12,000 to 2,000 years before present, Antarctica was up to 5°C warmer than it is today before cooling down to today’s levels. Regional lakes were as much as 60 meters higher than present until as recently as 1,500 years ago.

Myers et al., 2021

“The drivers of MDV lake level change represent a complex combination of climate, ice sheet extent, and basin hypsometry. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), roughly 28.5–12.8 ka, Antarctica underwent a period of ice sheet thickening and advance (Hall et al., 2015). Stable isotope records from Taylor Dome (located roughly 100 km west of the MDVs) indicate mean annual air temperatures ca. 4–9 °C lower than modern during the LGM (Steig et al., 2000). Following the LGM (12 000–2000 years BP) regional temperatures were up to 5 °C warmer than modern conditions (Fig. 2) (Steig et al., 2000; Monnin et al., 2004).”
“Resistivity data suggest that active permafrost formation has been ongoing since the onset of lake drainage and that as recently as 1500–4000 years BP, lake levels were over 60 m higher than present. This coincides with a warmer-than-modern paleoclimate throughout the Holocene inferred by the nearby Taylor Dome ice core record. Our results indicate Mid to Late Holocene lake level high stands, which runs counter to previous research finding a colder and drier era with little hydrologic activity throughout the last 5000 years.”
Taylor Dome ice core records show a highly variable Holocene climate with temperatures up to 5 C above modern until 1–2 ka, when temperatures came down to modern levels (Steig et al., 2000; Monnin et al., 2004).”

Image Source: Myers et al., 2021

About 1,000 years ago (i.e., the Medieval Warm Period) Antarctica was “substantially warmer than present” and the Southern Ocean waters were ice-free enough that elephant seals could breed in the Ross Sea, or near the coast of south-central Antarctica’s Victoria Land.

Today this region is so much colder and the sea ice so thick that elephant seals must travel 2,400 kilometers north of where they used to breed 1,000 years ago just to find sea ice-free waters (Koch et al., 2019Hall et al., 2006).

Image Source: Koch et al., 2019

Image Source: Hall et al., 2006

It would appear that none of the Holocene and modern temperature trends in Antarctica are consistent a CO2-driven climate. In fact, an anti-correlation pattern has seemed to emerge: Antarctica cools as CO2 levels rise.

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Have Scientists Ignored 11.7 TRILLION Tons Of Sequestered Carbon? (45 Times Man’s Addition)

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CO2 and climate change – some fundamental contradictions

By Fred F. Mueller

Politicians, scientists of all disciplines, the media and big money tell us CO2 acts as a “greenhouse gas” trapping heat inside the atmosphere and that the consequence will be a runaway global warming if we do not stop the burning of any type of fossil fuel within the next 20-30 years.

But scientists may have ignored another major factor, and it is huge.

Image 1. Fire coral. Corals are beautiful little carnivores protecting themselves by producing a hard shell (Photo: Rob, creative commons)

It is claimed that earth’s “natural” pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration had been hovering at 280 parts per million (ppm) for at least several hundred thousand years. Since the start of industrialization some 200 years ago, human-driven CO2 emissions have raised that level to 413.63 ppm (as of Sep. 29, 2021 (1)). In order to avert disaster – a global temperature rise of more than 1.5 °C –, mankind should not release more than 336 additional gigatons of CO2  into the atmosphere.

Severe restrictions on lives 

This 366 Gt figure has been used as the base for a ruling by the German Federal Constitutional Court (2). Adherence to this ruling will imply absolutely drastic restrictions on normal life in Germany: Electricity, heating, warm water, ground and air travel, steel, aluminum and concrete production would have to cease or at least be restricted by up to 80-90 percent. See also the climate planning targets for the city of Oxford (3). Ultimately, the majority of all industrial and private activities would be brought to a near standstill. In other words: Goodbye, civilization as we knew it, and back to the level of the Amish people.

But is this collapse really inevitable? Let’s check a few facts.

How sound are the basic assumptions?

The fundamental hypothesis of the apologists of man-induced catastrophic climate change is that on earth we had a more or less closed-loop carbon cycle that had been stable for at least several hundred thousand if not millions of years, Image 2.

Image 2: Basic NASA/ IPCC view of the current carbon cycle (4) (Picture: US Government, public domain)

Image 2 illustrates the underlying assumptions. It largely corresponds to the more detailed Figure 6.1 of the IPCC AR 5 report (5), which cannot be shown here due to copyright restrictions. The assumption is that clearly defined amounts of carbon are stored in a number of main pools or reservoirs (atmosphere, oceans, soil, fossil fuels etc.). Due to natural processes, these pools exchange carbon-containing fluxes.

What strikes at first glance is that there are imbalances: The figures show a resulting long-term depletion of the atmosphere by a combined 5 Gt Carbon (GtC) per year. According to Image 2, the atmospheric reservoir would be depleted in a time span of just a few hundred years were it not for human CO2 additions of at least 5 GtC annually. Sadly, without at least about 200 ppm CO2 in the air, photosynthesis and thus oxygen-breathing life on earth would not be possible.

Looking at the countless billions in funding that climate research has received during the past decades, this inconsistency is a bit puzzling. Would life on earth really be doomed in the medium term without the addition of at least 5 GtC/yr of fossil fuel generated CO2 to our atmosphere? But there are other figures that merit our attention.

CO2 absorption in the upper ocean levels is ignored?

Looking at Image 2, a fact that strikes us is that no CO2 sequestration is accounted for within the surface ocean. In this area, a perfect balance of internal fluxes is assumed. The surplus of 2 GtC/yr from the exchange with the atmosphere is simply passed on to the deeper layers of the ocean, where is supposed to remain, a seemingly insignificant addition to the already massive inventory of 37,000 GtC stored in these waters.

Other CO2 sequestration is ignored

There’s yet another peculiarity that should irk one’s mind when looking at the supposedly balanced CO2 fluxes in the near-surface oceans. On land, trees absorb CO2 and use the carbon to form wood. This carbon ends up in soil or even coal for long time periods. In the oceans, algae and other plants also absorb CO2 and incorporate carbon in their bodies, but the decay after death releases this carbon as CO2 back into nature.

Additionally, there is a further path that builds on the photosynthesis of marine organisms. It consists of corals, predatory shell-building marine creatures, which feed on algae and organic detritus. Using the carbon from this food, oxygen from their respiration and calcium atoms from the seawater, they build solid outer skeletons consisting of CaCO3, in other words limestone. After their demise, their limestone shells do not dissolve. They accumulate and are sort of sintered together by new corals rooting on top of their ancestor’s remains until they form fairly solid coral reefs. In these reefs, the carbon initially made available from CO2 by photosynthesis is tucked away in a very durable form that remains stable for hundreds of millions of years. Why have the scientists, who preach to us the imminent catastrophe caused by the release of CO2 “greenhouse gas” seemingly overlooked such a biogeochemical mechanism for long-lasting CO2 sequestration taking place in the surface layer of our oceans? Do they deem it too insignificant to merit any attention?

A closer look

As already mentioned, this coral growth has been going on over immense timescales, as documented by the tremendous amounts of limestone all over the world. And as our climate pundits constantly point out, global warming – which in reality has been going on since  the end of the last ice age some 12,000 years ago (6) – has caused glaciers to melt and sea levels to rise. The latest prediction of the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) claims a yearly sea level rise of 3,2 mm (7). Since the end of the last ice age began to thaw, sea levels have thus risen by about 120 meters. Coral reefs have kept pace with that rise, adding these 120 meters to their initial height, see Image 3:

Image 3. A fringing reef. Reefs always tend to grow upwards until they reach the surface (8) (Graphic: USGS, public domain)

Instead of just rising vertically, some may rather have “crawled up” the flanks of continental sockets, but in the process, they have nevertheless left behind an oblique rock structure whose mass will more or less match that of a vertical growth path. Fringing reefs around sinking volcanoes later form lagoons that are also filled with limestone, Image 4:

Image 4. Growing corals have built up an atoll around a disappearing volcano, including its lagoon (8) (Graphic: USGS, public domain)

Coral islands threatened by mismanagement – not sea level rise 

As a matter of fact, tropical island nations located on coral islands will rarely be threatened by rising sea levels. The islands they live on have all managed to keep pace with even a 120 meter rise of sea levels during since the last ice began to thaw. Otherwise they wouldn’t be here nowadays. This growth will continue, unless the inhabitants mismanage the protection of the coral habitats they depend upon.

Coral base rock (12% carbon) ignored by scientists

The interesting question now is how much carbon did these creatures to absorb from their environment in order to achieve these exploits? When trying to assess the amount of material that is needed to raise a coral reef, a few assumptions have to be made. The top of a reef is a highly variable structure with rather low density. But in order to raise the reef, one has to build up its base. This consists of the skeletal remains of dead corals that have been shattered and partly reduced to sand. These eventually “sinter” together to form a fairly solid rock base for the living coral thriving on flanks and top. Whatever addition to the height of the reef might be made, the rocky base will have to keep pace with it. In order to assess the amount of material required for this achievement, we have to look at the composition of this rock. It consists of calcite (CaCO3). Massive calcite has densities between 2.6 – 2.8 kg/dm3, with a median value of 2.715 kg/dm3. However, even compacted coral base rock still has voids and orifices. For good measure, let’s assume a density of 2 kg/dm3.

The next point to clarify is the weight percentage of the carbon contained in this rock. This can be easily determined looking at its chemical composition. The molecular mass of CaCO3 is 100 (Ca = 40, 3 x O = 48, C = 12). The mass percentage of carbon in this base rock is thus 12%.

Doing a little math:

– Coral reef total surface area:        405,463  km(9)
– Total growth since ice age                120  m (6)
– Volume of new base rock            48,656  km3
– Mass of new coral base rock            97,311  Gt

– Mass of C in new coral base rock    11,700  GtC

This result is quite interesting, since it represents roughly 15 times the total current carbon inventory of the atmosphere of 800 GtC (4), or 21 times the assumed pre-industrial carbon inventory of the atmosphere (=542 GtC) (1). Or nearly 45 times the currently assumed man-made addition of about 133 ppm CO2 (=260 GtC) to our atmosphere.

That translates to 1 GtC/yr over the last 12,000 years.

We have thus identified a very efficient biogeochemical mechanism that dealt with additional CO2 injected into the earth’s carbon cycle. And this mechanism seems to have been ignored by what is presented to the public as the result of cutting-edge research in the field of climate change (10).

Mankind is accused of having disturbed the earth carbon balance by adding some 260 GtC. What explanation is put forward by “climate science” with respect to the source of the whopping 11,700 GtC that have been dealt with by simple shell-clad detritus-gobblers building up their reefs during the last 12,000 years? We are constantly called on to “follow the science” of climate change. But how well does this science match with the realities we find in nature?

(1) https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2
(2) https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/EN/2021/03/rs20210324_1bvr265618en.html
(3) https://www.oxford.gov.uk/news/article/1918/roadmap_outlines_oxford_s_journey_to_net_zero_carbon_emissions_by_2040
(4) https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle
(5) https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter06_FINAL.pdf
(6) https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/12/101201120605.htm
(7) https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
(8) http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2002/fs025-02/
(9) https://allencoralatlas.org/atlas/#1.00/0.0000/-145.0000
10) https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/10/2141/2018/essd-10-2141-2018.pdf (Le Quéré et al)




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Global Warming Of Past 40 Years An Artefact Of Pacific Ocean Cycle… Now Comes The Cooling

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The One Oscillation That Rules Them All

By David Archibald

Cumulative graphs, in which changes in the individual values from time period to time period are added, are powerful for showing changes of trend in a series. Thus the cumulative graph of the annual average solar aa Index (a geomagnetic index) nails the beginning and end of the Modern Warm Period:

Professor Ole Humlum, based in Svalbard near the Arctic Circle, has a trove of climate data at his website Climate4you.  This includes a graphic of the cumulative graphic technique applied to the HadCRUT series of monthly global average surface air temperatures. It is found half way down this page, entitled ‘Cyclic air temperature changes’.

The changes of trend evident have no apparent correlation with any solar data series including the solar cycles, both Hale and Schwabe. I was rereading a book I wrote in 2014 entitled Twilight of Abundance for a new polemic when I came across this paragraph on page 14:

Overprinted on long term solar-driven warming is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which produces large swings in climate. The PDO is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, though PDO events last for 20-to-30 years, while typical El Nino events persisted for only 6 to 18 months.  Negative PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while “warm” or positive PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1976 through to 2008. Major changes in northeast Pacific marine ecosystems have been correlated with phase changes in the PDO; warm eras have higher coastal ocean biological productivity in Alaska and inhibited productivity off the west coast of the contiguous United States, while cold PDO eras have seen the opposite north-south pattern of marine ecosystem productivity.  After 30 years in a warm phase, the PDO appears to have switched to a cool phase which could also last 30 years. “

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was named by Nathan Mantua and his co-authors of their paper: A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production, who noticed it while studying salmon production patterns.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20°N. Reversals in the distribution of warm versus cool water correspond with dramatic shifts in salmon production regimes in the North Pacific Ocean.

When the dates of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are plotted on the graphic from Climate4you, the correlation is strong:

Given the noise from El Nino events and solar cycles, we have found the proximate cause for the major changes of temperature trend for the planet. Given the size of the North Pacific, you would not be surprised to find that it has a response at the planetary scale.

The satellites that measure the temperature of the atmospheric column were launched soon after the last reversal in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The significance of Figure 3 is that the apparent global warming over the last 40 years, that has been studied in great detail, that has caused great angst, is likely to be just an artefact of the phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Now that is sorted, can we all go home now?

Salmon production is not the only thing controlled by the state of the Pacific decadal oscillation. The greens and ecoloons had been predicting a new ice age right up to the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift. With the change of the Pacific decadal oscillation in that year they flipped to predicting warming instead.

There is still the potential for a scary scenario out of this. At 44 years long, the current positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation is long in the tooth and should be reversing soon of its own accord. This will coincide with the rapid drop in solar activity underway, speeding up the cooling process. The appropriate cultural reference is from the movie Aliens: “We’re on an express elevator to hell. Going down.”

Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up as being half the amplitude of 24. This is supported by the divergence in their UV output as shown by this graph from the University of Bremen:

The thick curves show the Mg II index time series twice smoothed with a 55-day boxcar. Dates of minima of solar cycles were determined from the smoothed Mg II index.

On top of all that, the last volcanic eruption big enough to have an effect on the Earth’s climate was Mt Pinatubo in 1991, now 30 years ago. Volcanic eruptions of that magnitude occur at an average of 40 years apart, so we are coming due for one on average. The combination of a major volcanic eruption overprinted on a deep solar minimum is the setup like that of the ‘Year Without A Summer’ – 1816 when the Mt Tambora eruption overprinted the Dalton Minimum.  In 1816 the oats price in the northeastern US went from 10 cents a bushel to 90 cents a bushel. Oats were what horses ran on and were the equivalent of today’s diesel and gasoline.

On the subject of agricultural prices, world wheat stocks have fallen dramatically this year and are equal to the lowest levels of the stocks-to-consumption ratio this century. The setup just gets better and better.

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David Archibald is an Australian scientist and petroleum geologist. Among other books, he is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare




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In 2019 Global Deaths Attributable To Cold Weather Were 24% Above 1990 Levels

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A new study (Burkart et al., 2021) reports that for every 356 deaths attributable to warm weather across the globe there were 1,337 attributable to cold weather in 2019.

The cold weather death attribution in 2019 was up from 1,021 (thousands) in 1990, a 24% increase. Warm weather deaths also rose – from 205 (thousands) in 1990 to 356 (thousands) in 2019.

Location-specific trends underscored just how much more deadly cold temperatures are.

In South Africa, for example, for every 453 heat deaths there were 8,372 cold deaths in 2019, which means cold temperatures were 18 times more deadly than warm ones at this locality.

In China, there were 32.0 deaths per 100,000 for cold but 3.25 deaths per 100,000 for heat.

Nearly 65 million people from 9 different countries were included in the study. Every single country had cold-attributable mortality exceeding heat-related mortality.

Image Source: Burkart et al., 2021
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South Pole Sees Record Cold Winter, Smashing 1976 Record …WaPo Admits “Chill Was Exceptional”

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Record Antarctic winter this year (April to September) at the Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station with average of -61.1 ° C, the coldest on record.

Illustrative image: NASA.

Hat-tip: Régis Crépet

The previous record was -60.6°C in 1976.

Operated by United States Antarctic Program, the South Pole station this past summer was “the coldest on record, dating back to 1957,” noted the climate alarmist Washington Post, and had to concede the event was “impressive and unexpected”.

“Overheating planet” leading to more ice?

Struggling to reconcile the contradictory South Pole result with its claims of an overheating planet, the WaPo added: “both Antarctica and the planet continue to rapidly warm” — just before admitting: “The extreme cold over Antarctica helped push sea ice levels surrounding the continent to their fifth-highest level on record in August.”

“-100°F on numerous occasions”

The WaPo cited an interview with University of Wisconsin researcher Matthew Lazzara, who was “in awe” over the record cold. “In an interview, he said it was around minus-100 degrees on numerous occasions.”

It’s also reported that Russia’s Vostok Station dipped to minus-110.9 degrees (minus-79.4 Celsius) just days ago, which according to the WaPo was just one degree (0.6 Celsius) from the world’s lowest temperature on record during October.

WaPo’s claim of near record hot summer refuted

To maintain alarmism, the WaPo likes often cites outlier data that suggest the planet has just seen one of the hottest summers on record. But as the University of Huntsville satellite data by Dr. Roy Spencer  show, this has clearly not been the case. June-2021 came in 0.01°C below the mean of the 1991-2020 reference period, and July and August came in at +0.20°C and +0.17°C, making the summer mean on average a modest 0.12°C warmer than the 1991-2020 period:

Image: University of Alabama

The Washington Post’s suggestion that Antarctica “continues to warm rapidly” is also contradicted by recent studies showing the entire South Pole continent has in fact cooled since data recording began in the 1950s.

Read here, here and here.

There are a lot fake news and misleading press releases out there, and they are being consistently exposed by objective peer-reviewed science.




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Energy Experts Warn Of “A Catastrophic Energy Emergency” If German Leaders Don’t Wake Up To Reality

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Swiss publicist Roland Tichy hosted a discussion round with three energy experts: former Hamburg Senator for the Environment Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, Albert Duin, medium-sized entrepreneur and member of the Bavarian state parliament, and Frank Hennig, an expert for power plants and energy conversion.

Image cropped from Tichy’s Einblick

Currently Germany is struggling with its Energiewende (transition to renewable energies) as it moves to phase out its nuclear and coal fired power plants. This transition, however, is threatening to lead to major power shortages as random wind and sun are proving to be unreliable in terms of supply steadiness.

“We are heading for a catastrophic state of emergency.” Vahrenholt says in the round, and that this is so even without accounting for moving to electric mobility. He also thinks that Germans will need to brace themselves for a tripling of electricity prices, and wonders if the proponents of green energies are out of their minds.

On shutting down the baseload capacity from nuclear and coal and relying instead on wind and sun, Vahrenholt warns: “It’s going to take two to three years; these are going to be very difficult years. We are going to have to cross a very deep valley of energy shortages.”

Power plant expert Frank Hennig told “more gas is being burned to produce power” as wind and solar are failing to meet demand. Hennig predicts there will be power shortages due to the shutdown of the nuclear and coal power plants.” He sees even more problems with wind power: “Even if there is wind, wind turbines may shade each other.” He warns that it is impossible to meet Germany’s electricity needs in this way.

The power shortages in Germany risk becoming so acute that converting over to electric mobility will be nothing more than a fantasy. “When it comes to e-cars, the top manager of VW can forget it,” Vahrenholt says. ”  There isn’t going to be any electricity for it. The power isn’t going to be there!”

Shutting nuclear and coal “madness”

Albert Duin calls the German plan “madness” and thinks German politicians have no overview at all of what electrical power is. “We Germans really believe that when we switch off the nuclear power plants we will be able to replace them with a randomly occurring — totally random — sun and wind. You really have to be stupid to believe something like that. It doesn’t work!”

Currently all the German party leaders, who are expected to be a part of the new upcoming coalition government, believe Germany will be able to meet its electricity needs by covering 2% of Germany’s land area with wind parks, an idea that the experts at Tichy’s discussion round find absurd. Vahrenholt calls the whole idea as made up as Annalena Baerbock’s resumè, and points out the politicians here are grossly fudging the numbers. 50% of Germany’s area would be needed when calculated realistically.

All three experts agree that German politicians are not dealing with reality and not telling the truth because they are afraid of the climate narrative, which has become a religion in Germany that cannot ever be challenged.




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Tokyo’s Coolest September In Over 30 Years…Hachijojima No Warming In 107 Years…Latest Forecast: Sharp La Niña!

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By Kirye
and Pierre

Tokyo has seen its coolest September in over 30 years, according to data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

Data source: JMA.

Tokyo’s mean temperature for September, 2021, was 22.3°C — the coolest recorded September mean in over 30 years.

Hachijojima island

Meanwhile, Hachijojima, an island belonging to Tokyo out in the Pacific and absent of the urban heat island effect, saw a September mean temperature of 24.5°C:

Data source: JMA

Plotting the data going back 107 years, the island has not seen any real warming at all in September.

Osaka

The industrial city of Osaka saw a September mean temperature of 24.6°C:

Data source: JMA

Osaka has seen September mean temperatures cooling modestly since 1994.

Latest ENSO forecast: La Niña!

Globally, the mean temperature over the coming year will likely see more cooling as La Niña conditions are forecast until mid spring 2022, the latest NOAA NWS projections show:

Source: NOAA.

Global warming alarmists will have to settle for chasing around the globe, looking for thunderstorms — calling them “supercells” — and using them as bogus signs of climate change. But everyone knows extreme weather is part of our planet and have been around for millions of years. It’s nothing new.

Nothing that unusual is happening to our climate. Claims of increasingly extreme weather due to mankind’s activities are largely false. The data clearly show it.

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Activists Get A Recent Paper That Threatens Climate Alarm Narratives Removed From Journal

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Post-publication rejection of peer-reviewed scientific papers precisely because they are “are highly controversial due to their political and social implications” are another means climate activists continue their banishment of dissent on climate change.

Back in 2009 the Climategate e-mails provided written documentation affirming suspicions climate scientists inclined to activism seek to “oust” those who they suspect might be in the “greenhouse skeptics camp” from participating in a scientific journal’s peer-review process.

Further, they would even “redefine what the peer-review literature is” if that’s what it would take to prevent heretical papers from being referenced in IPCC reports.

Image Source: Lowe, 2009

The scientific literature says CO2 changes lag paleoclimate temperature changes

A few months ago we highlighted a peer-reviewed scientific paper about the logical contradiction of a perceived CO2-induced paleoclimate record even though ice cores overwhelmingly support the conclusion temperature changes precede changes in CO2 by hundreds to thousands of years.

Image Source: Richet, 2021

That the ice core record clearly affirms this sequencing (CO2 changes occur at least centuries after temperatures change) is not even controversial. Just a few of the many observational studies supporting the temperature-leads-CO2 ordering include Mudelsee, 2001, Fischer et al., 1999, Monnin et al., 2001, Schneider et al., 2013, Stott et al., 2007, and Shin et al., 2020.

The Copernicus Gatekeepers of Truth

After likely receiving heavy criticism from climate activists for daring to publish a “skeptic” paper in their journal, the Gatekeepers of Truth at Copernicus then “decided” this paper was not sufficiently reviewed by those who reject papers that do not align with the anthropogenic global warming narrative.

Two reasons Copernicus offers for post-reviewing an already published paper stand out:

“The topic and conclusions of the manuscript are highly controversial due to their political and social implications, a fact that author, editor, and referees were aware of, as evident from email records, the manuscript’s cover letter, and referee reports.”

“6 [of the reviewers invited to referee the paper] are publicly known as being in favour of or having ties to an industry benefiting from the manuscript’s conclusion.”

So the author was aware that his paper was “highly controversial” and had “political and social” implications, and yet he had the audacity to seek publication in their journal anyway. What an odd criticism this is.

While offering no scientific justification for doing so, questioning the background and suspected political affiliations of reviewers is apparently deemed sufficient to disqualify them from reviewing manuscripts. Nowhere do the “acceptable” referees tackle the logical lead-lag cause-effect problem in paleoclimate science. At Copernicus, the science is apparently less important than the occupational and political affiliations of those reviewing manuscripts.

Predetermined rejection

In June and July, new reviewers who were selected by Copernicus because they were predisposed to reject the already-published paper merged their criticism of Richet’s paper into a single document here.

By late August to early September, the foregone conclusion had been realized. Dr. Richet’s paper questioning why it is assumed CO2 drives the present climate changes when it can be demonstrated CO2 did not drive climate change in the ice core record, was rejected.

Dr. Richet: “Should IPCC-revolving scientists be the only holders of truth?”

Dr. Richet wrote a reply to the Copernicus Gatekeepers of Truth who rejected his paper after it had been published. As an Earth scientist (geochemist and thermodynamicist) commenting on the CO2 ice core data, he is claimed to have improperly benefitted from a too-friendly peer-review process because 3 of the reviewers allegedly “have ties to industry benefitting from the manuscript conclusions.” (What “benefit” this is remains unspecified.)

Richet rightly points out that those criticizing his conclusions about the ice core data contradicting the CO2-drives-climate narrative likely have at least indirect ties to the $89 trillion dollars of climate-related “green” industries that necessarily must be spent (2015-2030) to transition to CO2 emission mitigation in the coming decades.

Regarding the disqualification of reviewers with ties to industries allegedly benefitting from the manuscript’s publication, Richet notes that Copernicus, the man, was Church administrator who never published on astronomy until later in his non-scientific career.

Importantly, none of Richet’s opponents were able to refute the central claim that “the interpretation of ice-core results flatly contradicts the fundamental principles of scientific reasoning.”

Finally, Richet asks why it is that only those scientists who align their views with that of the UN IPCC are allowed to decide on matters of “truth” in climate science.

Of course, this question will remain unanswered.

Image Source: Copernicus
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