A Research Associate Despairs Over Bleak Visions From The Prophets Of Potsdam: “A Catastrophe Is Rolling Our Way!”

Chronic climate anxiety. A Potsdam research associate writes how she copes with the psychological despair and distress she suffers because of her perceived approaching climate catastrophe.

Distressed Potsdam IASS research associate Irene Müller. Image cropped from: IASS.

Over at the blog site of the Potsdam Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), research associate Irene Müller writes in an essay titled “How climate scientists feel”:

A catastrophe is rolling our way. A catastrophe that mankind could prevent, and we aren’t succeeding in changing our selfish lifestyles which are partly responsible for this catastrophe.”

Potsdam: hotbed of hotheads

Readers first should note that over the past decades, Potsdam-Germany has become a hot-bed for climate hot-heads, ultra-alarmist institutes and hysteria concerning the future of the planet.

The East German city is also home to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which until just recently was headed by Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber. It also is the workplace for climate alarmism hothead Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf.

All climate scientists working in Potsdam are convinced that climate change is mostly man-made and will soon be lethal. They also believe the vivid visions of a planetary collapse that their models routinely produce. In Potsdam there are neither skeptic scientists, nor lukewarmers – there are only the white-hot alarmist ones.

Their task: produce dramatic and alarmist future climate scenarios.

Aim: German energy purity

And to help implement the long-shot rescue from the claimed coming climate Armageddon, the German government has set up the Potsdam Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, mentioned above. It will assist in ushering Prof. Schellnhuber’s masterplan for the “Great Transformation” of society – worldwide.

The aim of The Great Transformation is to end mankind’s “fossil-fuel metabolism” and to transition it to one of energy purity.

Convinced planet rapidly going to hell

In her IASS blog essay, Ms. Müller writes: “We’ve known for many years that man-made emissions cause climate change. Moreover the number of jet flights is increasing steadily.” Even worse: “In addition to air traffic, also the consumption of goods, automobile traffic and emissions” are rising as well.

All the capitalistic profligacy, she says, means “there will be more storms, and they will be more violent, and that they are coming sooner.” As evidence of this she cites a single tornado that was spotted last May in Germany. Sadly, this is the education level one needs in order to attain a masters degree in Germany.

Ms. Müller earned her masters degree in Sustainability, Society and the Environment from CAU Kiel, Germany, and holds a bachelor in Social Sciences from the Humboldt University Berlin.

Müller then writes there is going to be more heavy rains, flooding, destroyed homes, poor harvests, refugees, droughts, political conflicts, species extinctions, pollution, poisons, pesticides and herbicides and lost ecosystems. She’s convinced the planet is about to collapse.

Coping through meditation, deep breathing

Ms. Müller blames modern society, mainly consumerism and the unending quest for profit, for all the perceived destruction:

This development, narrow-mindedness makes me sad. And angry. Dissatisfied. Crazy! Unhappy!

How does the Potsdam researcher deal with her despair? She writes she tries to distract herself through her work, free time activities, and by practicing deep breathing.

And I’m learning meditation in order to cope with my stress and the conflicts I face. Breathe in. Breathe out. Breathe in.”

Vegetarian diet, no flying, mends her clothes

Müller comments that she expends much effort to protect the climate: “I don’t fly. I eat vegetarian, I mend my clothes, buy fair.” She also does her utmost “to live ‘correctly’, and as climate and environmentally friendly as possible, but it is sometimes pretty darn difficult.”

Later in her essay Müller admits her post is “not purely scientific” and that it describes her “reaction to the perceived scientific facts and observed realities.”

Taxes and restrictions as a solution

The Potsdam researcher proposes high taxes on jet fuel, a vast network of high-speed bicycle paths, doing away with the privilege of company cars and limiting advertising (so that people will be less inclined to buy things).

She says that privileged people living at the expense of the less privileged makes her “angry”.

Vision: Norway as “a green battery for Europe”

For her master’s thesis, according to Müller’s profile, she investigated “narratives in the Norwegian debate around ‘Norway as a green battery’ for Europe”.

Hysterical rantings “part of the problem”

Müller’s hyperventilated ranting was too much for Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski. From the standpoint of climate change and what to do about it, the Spiegel journalist commented about her rant at Twitter here: “Here such essays are part of the problem.”

Master-antimaster

In honesty, Ms. Müller is not really to blame for her distress and despair because she is merely the product of a seriously broken higher education system. Her master’s degree is in fact an anti-master. In her essay she is only regurgitating the Gospel and Dogma put out by the self-anointed Prophets of Potsdam, who run the place and forbid dissent of any kind.

She’s an unfortunate, unwitting prisoner of a cult-like complex, and it’s really sad to see young talent end up like this.

Ms. Müller and the IASS really could consider translating the German text into English, so that the whole world could get a good laugh from it, yet at the same time pause for a moment to reflect where this self-inflicted, echo-chamber-induced hysteria risks taking us. No, it won’t be a green paradise. Quite to the contrary.

What Warming? The First Blooming Date For Trees In Beijing Occurs No Earlier Today Than A.D. 1741-1795

The day of the year that a plant first blooms is widely considered to be “an important natural indicator of climate change” when observed over the course of decades to centuries.  A new study (Liu et al., 2018) reveals that a flowering plant in Beijing, the Amygdalus davidiana, has not been blooming any earlier in recent decades than it did during the second half of the 18th century.

The scientific literature is teeming with temperature reconstructions that depict a glaring lack of unprecedented, remarkable, or even detectable warming at sites all across the globe.  Hundreds of non-warming/non-hockey stick graphs have been published just since 2017 alone.

And when it comes to temperature reconstructions, one geographical region has seemed to receive more attention than any other: China.

Reconstructions of regional China temperatures consistently do not support the position that the modern period falls outside the range of natural variability.

In fact, in the first half of 2018 alone, there have already been 17 scientific papers published documenting a lack of conspicuous modern warming for regional China.

Directly Measuring Temperature/Climate With Blooming Dates

Unlike other temperature proxies used to reconstruct past temperatures, the day of the year a plant or tree blooms can be directly connected to the regional temperature.  Cooler temperatures translate to delayed bloom dates, and warmer temperatures indicate early bloom dates.    Compiled over decades to centuries, records of blooming dates can clearly depict long-term climate trends, as demonstrated in Liu and Fang (2017):

Graph Source: Liu and Fang, 2017

In a new study, Liu et al. (2018) obtained records of blooming dates for flowering trees in Beijing during the 260 years between 1741 and 2000.  Consistent with many other recent paleoclimate reconstructions for the region, Liu et al. (2018) did not assess any significant differences between the first blooming dates in the second half of the 18th century (1741-1795) compared to the late 20th century (1963-2000).

In fact, even when including the delayed blooming dates (shown above) during the 1796-1832 period (attributed to that colder period’s higher volcanic activity and lower solar irradiance), the average first-bloom date during the 90 years between 1741-1832 were effectively identical to the first-bloom date for 1963-2000 (85.2 vs. 84.4).

“No global climate warming due to the greenhouse effect since the Industrial Revolution occurs in the study area” (Li et al., 2009)

As mentioned above, an abundance of proxy reconstructions from the region also show the modern period is no warmer — and even several degrees colder — than it has been for the last several centuries to millennia.

Therefore, it appears to be widely accepted in the scientific literature that China has not been impacted by dangerous or unprecedented “global” warming since the 18th century, or since CO2 concentrations began rising precipitoously.


Liu et al., 2018

Extreme phenophase delays and their relationship with
natural forcings in Beijing over the past 260 years

Plant phenology is an important natural indicator of climate change (Körner and Basler 2010) and a proxy for climate reconstruction (Ge et al. 2008; Zheng et al. 2015; Fang and  Chen 2015). … In this paper, we reconstruct a phenological series of the first blooming date of Amygdalus davidiana (FBA) in Beijing from A.D. 1741 to 2000.  In these series, phenological records after 1950 are all observational data, and before that are reconstructed data based on the records from diaries, poems and other historical documents. In China, poems and diaries are used as important sources of proxy data for reconstructing historical phenological series (Ge et al. 2008) because many phenological phenomena had been recorded in detail in these historical documents (Chuine et al. 2004; Zhang et al. 2013; Liu et al. 2016). … Based on the average of the FBA series, the original FBA series could be divided into 1 later blooming periods of A.D. 1796–1985 and 2 earlier blooming periods of A.D. 1741–1795 and A.D. 1985–2000. … Approximately 85% of the extreme delays followed the large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥ 4), as the same proportion of the extreme delays followed El Niño events. About 73% of the extreme delays fall in the valleys of sunspot cycles or the Dalton minimum period in the year or the previous year.”


A. No Obvious Net Warming During The Last Few Centuries In Regional China

Zhu et al., 2016

“[W]e should point out that the rapid warming during the 20th century was not especially obvious in our reconstructed RLST [surface temperatures, northwestern Sichuan Plateau (NWSP), China].”

Li et al., 2018

“There are also other studies that suggest that the recent climate warming over the southeastern TP actually began in the 1820s (Shi et al., 2015). However, a few reconstructions from the west and northwest parts of Sichuan or from the southeastern TP indicate that there were no obvious increase of temperature during the past decades (Li et al., 2015b; Zhu et al., 2016).”

 

Yu et al., 2018

Bi et al., 2017

[T]he MWT [minimum winter temperature] values and rate of warming over the past seven decades did not exceed those found in the reconstructed temperature data for the past 211 years. …  Larger scale climate oscillations of the Western Pacific and Northern Indian Ocean as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation probably influenced the region’s temperature in the past.”

Fan et al., 2009

Zhu et al., 2016

Qin et al., 2018     

Li et al., 2011

Wang et al., 2018

Li et al., 2017

“Contrary to the often-documented warming trend over the past few centuries, but consistent with temperature record from the northern Tibetan Plateau, our data show a gradual decreasing trend of 0.3 °C in mean annual air temperature from 1750 to 1970 CE.”


B. No Obvious Net Warming During The Last Several Decades In Regional China

Lei et al.,2018 (N, NE, SE China)

“The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China.”

Lansner and Pepke Pedersen, 2018

Yi, 2018

Liu et al., 2018

Lan et al., 2017

Yan et al., 2015


C. Regional China Temperatures 2 – 7°C Warmer Than Today During Past Millennia

Zheng et al., 2018

“In this study we present a detailed GDGT data set covering the last 13,000 years from a peat sequence in the Changbai Mountain in NE China. The brGDGT-based temperature reconstruction from Gushantun peat indicates that mean annual air temperatures in NE China during the early Holocene were 5–7°C higher than today.  Furthermore, MAAT records from the Chinese Loess Plateau also suggested temperature maxima 7–9°C higher than modern during the early Holocene (Peterse et al., 2014; Gao et al., 2012; Jia et al., 2013). Consequently, we consider the temperatures obtained using the global peat calibration to be representative of climate in (NE) China. … The highest temperatures occurred between ca. 8 and 6.8 kyr BP, with occasional annual mean temperatures >8.0 ± 4.7°C, compared to the modern-day MAAT of 3°C.”

Li et al., 2009

“The highest temperature was 22.7°C which was recorded at 1.01 cal ka BP. … Cooling period from 0.85 cal. ka BP to present. SST declined obviously in this period, with the maximum decrease amplitude of 2℃. … No global climate warming due to the greenhouse effect since the Industrial Revolution occurs in the study area.”

Wu et al., 2018

Ge et al., 2017

“This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3◦C and 0.7◦C, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56◦ ± 0.42◦C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD 1201–70 are comparable to the present.”

Deng et al., 2017

“The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900–1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850–present).”

Dong et al., 2017

Li et al., 2017

Guo et al., 2018

Wu et al., 2018

Summer temperatures (MJT) at Xingyun Lake in the late glacial were low, increased during the early Holocene, were highest during the middle Holocene, and then decreased during the late Holocene. The range of inferred values [for the Holocene] was 21.0°- 26.5°C. The pollen inferred temperature derived from surface samples (21.2°C), is close to the modern instrumental July temperature in Kunming (22°C), supporting the reliability of reconstructions from down-core pollen assemblages.” [Modern temperatures are 1.0°C above the coldest of the last 14,000 years, and 4.5°C cooler than the warmest temperatures of the last 14,000 years.]

Wang et al., 2018

The average RAN15-MAAT of 18.4°C over the most recent part of the record (<0.8 ka BP) [the last 800 years BP] overlaps with the range of MAATs, ca. 16.2°C to 18.7°C (av. 17.5°C) measured since 1952 at the nearest meteorological station (Yichang, located ca. 100 km away) and is very close to the av. MAAT of 18°C measured directly outside the cave by a temperature logger between 2004 and 2007 (Hu et al., 2008a). This agreement between reconstructed temperatures and instrumental measurements increases our confidence in the potential of the RAN15 proxy. RAN15-MAATs in HS4 vary from 16.5°C to 20.6°C (av. 19°C), during the last 9 ka BP, and broadly follow a long-term trend of declining temperatures in line with declining solar insolation at 30°N in July (Laskar et al., 2004) (Fig. 4B). The temperature variation (4.1°C) in our record is larger than the calibration error of the RAN15 proxy (RMSE ¼ 2.6°C; Wang et al., 2016). … The Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) shown in the RAN15-MAAT record is from 8 to 6 ka BP, with the highest temperature at ca. 7.0 ka BP. Superimposed on the orbital-scale Holocene trend are centennial to millennial scale climate fluctuations of ca. 1-2°C. Interestingly, the most recent 0.9 ka BP [900 years BP] is distinguished by greater variability with the highest (20.5°C) and lowest (16.5°C) RAN15-MAATs occurring consecutively at 0.6 ka BP [600 years BP] and 0.5 ka BP [500 years BP].”  [Surface temperatures dropped by -4.0°C within ~100 years.]

Zheng et al., 2017

From 11.5 to 10.7 ka [11,500 to 10,700 years ago], corresponding to the Preboreal event, MAATpeat indicates even higher [temperature] values, from 7.0 to 12 °C. MAATpeat continued to vary during the Holocene. From 10.7 to 6.0 ka, temperatures rose stepwise, with 2 cool events at 10.6–10.2 and 8.6 ka, beforereaching maximum values of ~11 °C during the early Holocene from 8.0 to 6.0 ka. Following the early Holocene, temperatures at Hani gradually decreased to values of ~5 °C, close to the observed temperature at Hani across the past 60 yr (4–7.5 °C).” [Modern temperatures are about 5-6°C colder than 6,000 to 8,000 years ago.]

Li et al., 2017

Chang et al., 2017

Zhang et al., 2017

Zhang et al., 2018

Yao et al., 2017

Sun et al., 2017

Li et al., 2017

Li et al., 2017

Li et al, 2018

Wang et al., 2017

Xu et al., 2018 (Northern South China Sea)

This study provides evidence that thermal coral bleaching events have occurred in the warmer mid-Holocene (where maximum monthly summer SST was 2 °C higher than at present) in Hainan island.  … [C]oral bleaching events under high SST conditions have already occurred in the mid-Holocene and are by no means a new ecological phenomenon of current global warming.”

Hu et al., 2017  (Yellow River, China)

“According to the pollen records in the HRYR [Headwater Region of the Yellow River], the climate in the Holocene thermal maximum was warmer and wetter than present (temperature was 2 -3 °C higher than present)

Sun et al., 2016  (Xi’an, China)

“Comparing the climate between the mid-Holocene and present in the Xi’an area, the MAT [mean annual temperature] was about 1.1°C higher than today and the AP [annual precipitaion] was about 278 mm higher than today, similar to the modern climate of the Hanzhong area in the southern Qinling Mountains.”

Where’s The Warming! Summer Snow Blankets Poland/Ukraine…27 ‘Summer’ Camp Children Evacuated!

Winter refuses to die as large parts of the northern hemisphere like Labrador and Eastern Europe get blanketed by unusual summer snow.  Arctic ice volume reaches 13-year high, Greenland snow mass balance explodes, and tropical Atlantic is “coldest on record”.

Where’s the warming!

The Arctic and North Atlantic have suddenly turned surprisingly cold. First, according to Weatherbell meteorologist Joe Bastardi, the northern Atlantic has turned cold; so cold in fact that Bastardi called it “impressive”:

Source: cropped from Weatherbell

“impressive”…coldest Atlantic on record (since 1982)

All the Atlantic cold could have a big (positive) impact on the upcoming hurricane season, says hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach. One week ago Klotzbach tweeted:

Tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) (10-20°N, 60-20°W) remain at record cold levels (since 1982) for mid-June. About 0.2°C colder than prior coldest (1985) and nearly 1.7°C cooler than last year at this time. Colder SSTs typically mean quieter Atlantic seasons.”

Canada shivers, “unprecedented” this late in June

Also much of Canada has been cold and the forecast for the next 15 days shows little warming. Labrador was hit severely by a winter storm just days ago.

According to the CBC: “6 feet of snow around Labrador lodge ‘unprecedented’ this late in June. This is the latest in the season to have this much snow at Igloo Lake Lodge, says operator.”

As the following chart shows, there’s no relief from the cold there in sight:

Source: Cropped at Weatherbell.

Labrador may not get a summer, most snow in 50 years

At Friday’s Weatherbell Daily Update, Joe Bastardi  said: “Boy, I’ll tell you what. Canada is just not getting a break. There it’s just really cold. And it’s still plenty cold up here in Labrador where they haven’t had a summer at all, and they may not!”

Just days ago the Weather Channel here reported that there was still six feet of snow: The headline: “Labrador, Canada, Hasn’t Seen This Much Snow in June in 50 Years.”

Summer snow falls in summer…in Poland/Ukraine!

Yesterday, on the second day of summer, snow fell in Poland! according to Severe Weather Europe at Facebook.

In Ukraine in the Karpaten 27 children had to be rescued from summer camp by emergency crews as “several centimeters of snow fell and temperatures dropped near freeing,” the German Weser Kurier here reports.

Arctic ice and snow sees impressive rebound

Looking at the Arctic, Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye tweeted here that the sea ice volume remains strong, and is even a bit above the 2004-2013 mean.

Chart source: dmi.dk.

All of this is much to the detriment of the latest Ship of Fools episode, where activists have chartered Russian ship “Akademik Ioffe“ with the aim of carrying out another climate-change publicity stunt later this summer. There’s a real risk the mission might produce the opposite of what they intend. We’re all watching.

Arctic ice volume 13-year high!

Prominent climate skeptic Tony Heller also posted here the following chart showing that Arctic ice volume has rebounded over the past years and stands at a thirteen year high, the prominent climate critic and skeptic .

Source: Tony Heller, Real Climate Science.

Greenland ice mass explodes

Finally, Schneefan here, citing data from the Danish Meteorological Institute, reports that the Greenland ice mass balance has grown well above average this year.

Source: DMI.

Schneefan reports that mass balance has has exploded “to over 600 billion tonnes since September 1, 2017” and is 50 billion tonnes over the mean and 100 billion tonnes above the 2012 level at this time.

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ONLY 0.8% Of Coastal Tide Gauges Show Sea Level Rise On Track To Reach IPCC Year 2100 Projection!

Accurately measuring the sea level with a satellite is highly complex and fraught with uncertainty. Even the slightest equipment miscalibrations can produce inaccurate results.

Huge discrepancy exists between satellite measurements and observed coastal tide gauge readings. Source: CSIRO.

For sea level rise, the figures that are often cited come from namely two sources: satellite measurement, which go back 25 years and so do not properly account for multidecadal variations, and tide gauges placed along the coastlines where people actually live.

Satellite data may be overstating sea level rise

The assumed current global sea level rise from the satellite data TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft and its successors, which began collecting data in late 1992, is reported by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to be 2.8 inches (7 centimeters).

Some experts recently warned however — after having made adjustments to the satellite measurements — that sea level rise has  accelerated and thus could rise some 75 centimetres over the century, which would be in line with projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013.

Other sources say that sea level rise could be as much as 3.4 mm per year, and thus accelerating (e.g. see chart above).

Indeed if these high-end projections were accurate, then coastal areas would be facing serious challenges. But those alarmist claims have been met critically, and at times even with derision.

There remains lots of uncertainty, and so the question today is: How much are coastal areas (where it really matters) at risk really?

Tide gauges: “most extensive, accurate and significant” datasets

One way to check what’s really going on is to examine the tide gauges along the coasts worldwide. Since the early 1800’s, NOAA and its predecessor organizations have been measuring tide levels.

According to the NOAA, “This database has become one of the most extensive, accurate and significant geophysical data sets in existence.”

To do this the NOAA keeps a coastal station tide list for tracking global linear relative sea level (RSL). Manually I counted 358 stations. A number of them stopped measurement some years ago, while others were put in operation in the 20th century. The list appears not to include the US tide gauges.

The data and charts can be looked at country-by-country here.

Less than 1% on track to meet IPCC’s 75 cm sea level rise by 2100

Examining the data to get a general idea how the sea level is behaving at these tide stations. A number of points were observed:

1) Only 3 stations show a RSL rise of 7.5 mm/year or more, meaning that only three stations (0.08%) are on track to reach the IPCC’s alarmist 75 cm sea level rise projection by 2100. And if we use the more conservative 60 cm rise, only 5 stations (1.4%) are on track!

Only 14% show a rise equal to or greater than satellite global rate

2) Only 51 tide gauges (14%) are measuring 3.2 mm/year or more, which is approximately equivalent to about what the satellites are said to be measuring globally. That figure would need to be near 50% if the satellites were true.

3) 54 coastal tide gauges (15%) show that relative sea level has in in fact been falling.

4) The mean relative sea level rise as to the tide gauges is about one third less than what is measured by the satellites, i.e. approx. 2.3 mm per year, or less than 10 inches per century.

This is only a rough overview. Naturally a more detailed look recent tide gauge trends of the last 2 or 3 decades would tell us more about accelerating sea level rise. Or maybe not: rate changes over such short time periods have more to do with natural variations.

So in general? If you’re living and working at the institutes who operate the satellites, then you might be showing concern about the figures from your getting (it’ll help with funding, in any case).

But if you’re the average person living near the coast, then in most places there’s not much to be alarmed about. There’s a good chance the satellites are overstating sea level rise just a bit and so you can better rely on what your local tide gauge has been showing.
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Germany’s “Ticking Time Bombs”…Technical Experts Say Wind Turbines Posing “Significant Danger” To Environment!

As much of Germany’s nearly 30,000 strong fleet of wind turbines approach 20 or more years in age, the list of catastrophic collapses is growing more rapidly. The turbines are now being viewed by technical experts as “ticking time bombs”.

Wind turbine recently burned after being hit by lightning. Image: Wasili Karbe, cropped from video here.

According to a commentary by Daniel Wetzel of online German Daily ‘Die Welt’, the aging rickety wind turbines are poorly inspected and maintained and thus are now posing a huge risk.

Over the past months alone there’s been a flurry of reports over wind turbines failing catastrophically and collapsing to the ground, e.g. see here, here and here.

As the older turbines age, their components and electronic control systems are wearing out and beginning to gravely malfunction. And according to Wetzel, these turbines are not even subject to strict technical monitoring by Germany’s TÜV (Technical Inspection Association), which provides inspection and product certification services.

In Germany industrial systems are required to regularly undergo technical inspections and approvals in order to ensure that they operate safely. However wind turbines are exempt from this strict requirement and so many wind park operators are neglecting to properly inspect, maintain and repair the systems, which is costly. And so it surprises no one that the aging turbines are beginning to fail catastrophically.

As a result, the TÜV is calling for turbines to be treated like any other industrial system, and be required to undergo rigorous inspections as well, Wetzel writes.

In 2016, near in the region of Paderborn, a 100-tonne turbine and its rotors plunged to the earth. The turbine was nearly 20 years old.

“Razor-sharp shards” threat to grazing animals

In another case, earlier this year, near Bochern, Wetzel reports, a brakeless 115-meter tall turbine spun wildly out of control before “two of the 56-meter blades “ripped to shreds ‘in a cloud of glass, plastic and fill material’.”

“Razor-sharp fiberglass shards flew 800 meters,” the Westfalen Blatt reported.

The debris from exploded turbine now poses a threat to the environment. The sharp fiberglass pieces injure grazing animals, says the Hanover School of Veterinary Medicine. “For cattle they can even perforate the stomach.”

Hazard to ground water

Another hazard comes from the hundreds of liters of transmission oil the turbines that seep into the groundwater. Moreover the huge reinforced concrete foundations require tremendous energy for their manufacture and they penetrate deep into the ground, which adversely effects soil and groundwater.

Growing list of disasters

The number of wind turbine disasters is mounting, reports Wetzel. Wind energy opposition group Vernunftkraft keeps a list, which has grown to be pages long. But the German Association of Wind Energy (Bundesverband Windenergie) downplays the incidents, calling them “isolated cases”.

Dealing with “ticking time bombs”

Yet the situation has in reality grown so serious that TÜV is now urgently calling for rigorous inspections and regulations in order to assure operational safety.  TÜV expert Dieter Roas says that we dealing with “ticking time bombs.”

Wetzel writes that many turbines are now approaching their 20-25 year lifetimes and that extending their operating time should require technical approval.

The technical and structural integrity of the turbines in most cases is completely unknown.

TÜV expert Roas warns: “Here we are dealing with significant dangers”.

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New Study: Denmark Sea Level Was 11-12.5 Meters Higher Than Now During The Mid-Holocene

In a new paper, data from 57 sites along 17 km of coastal Denmark reveal that sea levels were 11 to 12.5 meters higher than they are today between 7,600 and 4,600 years ago.

Image Source: Clemmensen et al., 2018

Most Holocene reconstructions do not indicate that sea levels were more than about 5 meters above present between about 9,000 to 4,000 years ago.

But a new study utilizing well-preserved beach facies along the coasts of northern Denmark indicates that sea levels were as much as 12.5 meters higher than they are today during the Mid-Holocene.

These extremely high sea level elevation values may be less common, but other research has revealed that sea levels were as much as 8 meters higher than today near East Antarctica (Hodgson et al., 2016)  during the Early Holocene.  Just 2,000 years ago, sea levels were still 12 meters higher than today along the coasts of King George Island (Antarctica) (Chu et al., 2017).  And research published in 2011 suggested sea levels near the Antarctic Peninsula were as much as 15.5 meters higher than today between 8,000 and 7,000 years ago (Watcham et al., 2011).

This new research using high-resolution sea level proxy evidence can be added to the list of 75 other recently published sea level papers indicating that global sea levels were on average about 1 to 5 meters higher than they are now (depending on location) just a few thousand years ago.


Clemmensen et al., 2018

A high-resolution sea-level proxy dated using quartz OSL

from the Holocene Skagen Odde spit system, Denmark

Conclusion:

“The raised spit deposits at Skagen Odde, northern Denmark, offer a unique possibility to study spit evolution over the past 7600 years. The deposits contain well-preserved beach facies including the transition from wave-formed foreshore to aeolian-influenced backshore sediments. After correction foroffset and isostatic spatial gradient, we have been able to use this boundary as a proxy for palaeo-sea level.”
“Measurements at 57 sample sites covering ~17 km along the northwestern coast of the spit indicate that this boundary first rises towards the northeast, then reaches a maximum relative sea level at about 12.5 m above present mean sea level [apmsl] before gradually decreasing toward the most recent part of the spit.”
“By pairing all boundary elevation measurements with an OSL age, the variation in elevation with age has been determined directly. The resulting curve reflects variation in relative sea level with time; we conclude that relative sea level initially rose between c. 7600 and c. 6250 years ago, reached a first peak value around 12.5 m apmsl [above present mean sea level] and a second peak value around 11 m apmsl c. 4600 years ago before it dropped to reach 2 m apmsl c. 2000 years ago.”

German National Daily ‘Die Welt’ On CO2 Reduction: “Why Has It Been 5 To Midnight 30 Years Long?”

Sustainable alarm, unending hoax. Commentary at Germany’s ‘Die Welt’: Why has the climate-last-chance alarm been blaring 30 years long now? And why has the planet today “suddenly” just been given yet another 20 years by experts?

Remember how in 2007 Al Gore warned we had only 10 more years to act?

Well, those 10 years have long since expired, and that deadline came and went without the planet changing much. Embarrassed, global warming alarmists quietly pushed the doomsday back once again. And this time it was for real.

This game has been going on for years now.

Today, business journalist Daniel Wetzel here in a commentary at German national daily Die Welt finally is wondering why it’s been “5 to midnight for 30 years now”!

At Twitter here Wetzel remarked:

The end of the world has been postponed: the -budget is now larger than what was given by the last -report. Suddenly 20 years more time, reduction INDCs made in Paris are now enough. When it comes to climate change why has it been 5 to midnight for the last 30 years?”

Doomsday pushed back again…by 20 years!

All the climate alarms of the past 30 years have turned out to be false, and Wetzel notes above that the doomsday clock once again has been reset to give us yet another 20 years!

Over the past 30 years humanity has in fact prospered immensely, and we still get our winters, the globe is barely warmer, storms have not been getting worse, and a number of serious studies show no significant sea level rise acceleration.

But this time, the alarmists say, the next 20 years will really be our last chance.

One reader at Twitter commented that it’s “acid rain scare reloaded.”

German power grid turns record costly, inefficient

If anything has changed because of “climate change”, it’s Germany’s electric power supply system. It’s gotten much more unstable and far more expensive because of all the volatile wind and solar power coming online.

In a  recent commentary at the online Die Welt, Mr. Wetzel wrote that Germany’s power grid has become highly unstable and expensive for consumers, mostly due to all the volatile green energies that forced fed into the country’s grid.

According to Wetzel, German consumers were forced to pay a record amount of money “for stabilizing the power grid under the conditions of the Energiewende.”

1.4 billion euros just to keep grid stable

Citing an annual report from the Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Power Grid Agency), power consumers paid a total of 1.4 billion euros for emergency interventions into the power grid, and thus smashing the previous high of 1.1 billion euros set in 2015.

Wetzel also reports that green energy production systems also had to be shut down at times because there was no place to send the unneeded power. Wetzel writes:

With excessive wind power feed in the north, the current leads to a dangerous overloading of the too few power transmission lines.”

The ordered shutdowns cost consumers an additional 610 million euros, Wetzel reported. Solar and wind system operators get paid for the energy they don’t produce when ordered to shut down.

Grid interventions almost daily

Wetzel adds that interventions to keep the grid stable occurred almost daily, and that grid operators ordered the shutdown of parks to keep unwanted power from getting fed into the grid (wind park operators still got paid even for the power they never produced). According to Wetzel, grid overload situation occurred on 353 days last year.

German power rates among the highest in the world

Currently German consumers are being saddled with surcharges of 6.96 euro-cents per kilowatt hour just for the grid fees alone and another 6.69 euro-cents for kilowatt hour for the green energy feed-in, the Die Welt commentary writes.

Currently the average German consumer pays 29.44 euro-cents per kilowatt hour, of which about 16 euro-cents are made up of taxes, various fees, and surcharges, Wetzel reports.

In large part due to the Energiewende, Germany’s electricity prices for consumers have skyrocketed over the past decade.

 

Paris Accord Humiliation: 23 Of 28 EU States Graded “Poor” Or “Very Poor” On Achieving Climate Targets!

It’s schadenfreude time for the skeptics of so-called “green energies”, and humiliation time for green energy cheerleaders. 

Not a single EU state is meeting its climate targets, a new analysis by CAN Europe finds.

It’s been close to three years since countries worldwide signed the Paris Agreement, which obligates nations pledge to commit themselves to intending (or something like that) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to “safeguard the planet’s future”.

The language of the Agreement is in fact non-binding, and so one wouldn’t be surprised to learn that some signatories might not be living up to the agreement’s spirit.

“Relevant hoax”… all EU states “off-target”

Well, here’s the real shocker: According to a new analysis by nongovernmental organization CAN Europe, all EU countries are missing the Paris Agreement targets, as assessed by CAN Europe.

So now it’s crystal clear: Europe was never really serious about implementing the Paris Agreement from the very start. It was nothing more than a New Year’s resolution which no one ever intended to stick to.

Little wonder ex-NASA GISS director James Hansen just told the Guardian: “…the relevant hoax today is perpetrated by those leaders claiming to be addressing the problem.”

Hansen is right.

CAN Europe: dismal results

The aim of the CAN Europe report was to examine “which EU Member States are willing to increase their climate action and tackle the gap between the goals of the Paris Agreement and current greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts in the EU.”

The final results? According to the CAN Europe:

The ranking shows that all EU countries are off target: they are failing to increase their climate action in line with the Paris Agreement goal. No single EU country is performing sufficiently in both ambition and progress in reducing carbon emissions.”

23 of 28 countries rated “poor” or “very poor”

The chart on page 5 of the CAN Europe report shows us that a whopping 23 of 28 European countries are in fact performing poorly or even very poorly.

Source: CAN Europe.

The nongovernmental organization assessed the European countries according to a variety of factors, especially pro capita emissions and progress on expanding renewable energies. For example leader Sweden met 77% of the CAN measures, while Poland met only 16%.

Overall, poor countries performed far worse. This could in part indicate that green energies are more a trend for the rich and snobby countries.

Germany embarrassed

Moreover, just days ago, Germany was forced to admit that it would fail to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets by a broader margin than first believed — “an embarrassing admission for a government that wants to lead the charge on limiting climate change.”

9 years without reduction

Even more embarrassing: Germany in reality has not reduced its emissions in 9 years and there are no signs this trend will change any time soon!

In fact since 2007 the USA alone has reduced its CO2 emissions by approximately 700 million metric tons annually, which is in the neighborhood of Germany’s total annual output!

Observational Evidence Reveals Regional Arctic Sea Ice Was Thinner In 1955 Than In 2015-’17!

According to a new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the observed mean thickness of the sea ice in the region north of (Arctic) Svalbard was substantially thinner (0.94 m) in 1955 than it has been in recent years (~1.6 m, 2015/2017).

Graph Source: Rösel et al., 2018

In 1955, the atmospheric CO2 concentration hovered around 315 ppm, about 90 ppm lower than today’s CO2 values.

It is widely assumed that the steep and substantial rise in CO2 concentration since the 1950s is largely responsible for warming the Arctic, and consequently the decline in the Arctic’s sea ice volume and extent (IPCC, 2013).  This assumption is significantly predicated on the observation that sea ice has undergone precipitous losses since the 1970s, which is when the satellite era began.

However, longer-term observational data do not appear to support the conclusion that Arctic region sea ice is driven by linear trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Indeed, there is evidence that Arctic sea ice extent was comparable or lower than now in the 1940s and 1950s (for example, see this annotated graph from Gagné et al., 2017).  Several other recently published papers also fail to support a CO2 – Arctic climate connection, as detailed in several articles found here at NoTricksZone during 2018.

1. 20 New Papers Crush Claims Of A Man-Made Link To Arctic Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, Sea Ice
2. Groundbreaking AGW-Undermining Study: Greenland’s Warming, Ice Loss Due To Geothermal Heat
3. Another New Paper Shows Arctic Sea Ice Has Been INCREASING Overall Since The 1930s
4. 12 New Papers Affirm A 21st Century Cessation Of Arctic Warming And A Rapid Cooling Across Antarctica
5.  Arctic Temps 2°-6°C Warmer Than Today With 4.5 Fewer Months Of Sea Ice Coverage 2,000 Years Ago
6.  New ‘Consensus’ Science: HALF Of 1979-Present Arctic Warming & Ice Loss Is Natural
7.  In 2015, Climate Scientists Wrecked Their Own CO2-Forced ‘Polar Amplification’ Narrative
8. Activists Continue To Peddle Unsupportable Claims Of NEVER-BEFORE Climate Alarm, Ignoring New Science

Regional Arctic sea ice was thicker than now in the 1950s?

In another newly published paper, observations from an Arctic region north of Svalbard affirm that sea ice thicknesses were indeed much higher than today during the 1970s, or when the linearly-decreasing sea ice trend documented by satellites (conveniently) commenced.

However, looking closely at Table 3 (shown in the introductory graph above) from the same paper, we see that sea ice thickness values may have been lower in the mid-1950s (0.94 m) than they are today (~1.6 m thicknesses on average).

If sea ice was was thinner than it is now during the same period of time that CO2 concentrations were substantially lower than they are now, this documented observational evidence appears to again undermine the conclusion that CO2 concentration rises are significantly connected to sea ice losses – or to the Arctic climate in general.


Rösel et al., 2018

Thin Sea Ice, Thick Snow, and Widespread Negative

Freeboard Observed During N‐ICE 2015 North of Svalbard

“We present a continuous time series of in situ measurements from the N‐ICE2015 expedition from January to June 2015 in the Arctic Basin north of Svalbard, comprising snow buoy and ice mass balance buoy data and local and regional data gained from electromagnetic induction (EM) surveys and snow probe measurements from four distinct drifts.
The observed mean snow depth of 0.53 m for April to early June [2015] is 73% above the average value of 0.30 m from historical [1955, 1970s] and recent observations in this region, covering the years 1955–2017.”
“The modal total ice and snow thicknesses, of 1.6 and 1.7 m [2015] measured with ground‐based EM and airborne EM measurements in April, May, and June 2015, respectively, lie below the [1970s] values ranging from 1.8 to 2.7 m, reported in historical observations from the same region and time of year [but well above the sea-ice thickness values of 0.94 m for 1955].”

Claimed Antarctic Ice Loss An Artefact of Statistical Waterboarding…Fraught With Huge Uncertainty…

On June 13 Chris Mooney of the Washington Post wrote how Antarctica’s ice sheet was “melting at a rapidly increasing rate” and “pouring more than 200 billion tons of ice into the ocean annually” — all this according to “a team of 80 scientists”. The doomsday media response was immediate.

Mooney of course blamed CO2 for the speculated ice melt change, and renewed the calls for a cut in greenhouse gas emissions in order to save ourselves.

Adventurous conclusion

Firstly the CO2 ice-melt logic here is extremely flimsy and even preposterous: An already hugely uncertain 200 billion ton figure gets adventurously blamed on Co2 through a long, uncertain and highly complex chain of physical processes — one that ignores an array of natural factors.

“Rate increase” meaningless

Secondly, Mooney’s language sounds dramatic, but the reality isn’t dramatic at all. A worker with an annual salary of $100,000 who gets a raise of $100 this year compared to $50 a year earlier also sees “a rapidly increasing” pay raise “rate” (100%). In reality the raise was meaningless.

Mooney and the media here are using trick language to purvey fake images of significant activity.

Only 0.001% of the total mass

Though the (hugely uncertain) 200 billion ton ice melt figure may sound impressive, it is in fact very tiny compared to the entire Antarctic total ice volume, which according to Dr. Don Easterbrook’s book “Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming Evidence-Based Climate Science” is estimated at 26.5 million cubic kilometers.

Artefact of statistical torture

200 cubic kilometers of 26.5 million cubic kilometers is in reality only about an estimated paltry 0.001% of the total Antarctic ice mass. And (if it were true) would have only a minor effect on overall sea level rise.

The scientists themselves admit there’s much uncertainty involved and that the calculated 200 billion ton ice loss depends in part on model assumptions. Read more here.

The 200 billion ton figure is indeed more an artefact of statistical torture and modelling. When it comes to complex Antarctic ice mass, you can make the paltry data that’s available say whatever you want.

In this case 80 scientists participated in the waterboarding of the data.

One decade is not climate, but rather weather variability

What is more, the authors compared the last decade to the one before. Well, changes seen in one decade and compared to the one earlier is what we call weather changes, not climate change. Just because one decade is wetter than the one before it, it doesn’t mean the next will be wetter as well. Junk science.

Reality: Antarctic ice area growing rapidly

The satellite imagery and data concerning Antarctic ice area, which go back almost 40 years, in fact show an increasing long-term trend, according to one recently published peer-reviewed study.

Antarctic cooling

And in order for Antarctica to lose ice through melting, the temperature there would necessarily need to rise. Yet the best satellite data we have on this show this is not the case at all.

Satellite data spanning four decades show no temperature increase. The RSS data in fact indicate slight cooling over the past decade where accelerated melting is being claimed. How can cooling cause more melting? Source: here.

Antarctic coastal surface stations show no warming

At Twitter, Japanese skeptic Kirye has been looking at NASA surface stations scattered over Antarctica, most of them near the coast, and found that many do not show any warming, e.g. Casey, Davis, Mawson, Syowa

Other studies show ice growth!

Moreover NASA glaciologist Jay Zwally published a paper in 2015 showing ice sheet growth in eastern Antarctica had outweighed the losses in the western ice sheet, and so ice mass was growing and not shrinking.

And today Zwally is set to release a new study that will show that the eastern Antarctic ice sheet continues to gain enough ice to offset the losses in the west. “Basically, we agree about West Antarctica,” Zwally told The Daily Caller. “East Antarctica is still gaining mass. That’s where we disagree.”

Zwally believes ice sheet growth is anywhere from 50 gigatons to 200 gigatons a year, the Daily Caller reports here.

Ocean cycles responsible for west Antarctic ice melt

Ice loss in the western Antarctic ice sheet is suspected of being driven by “warm ocean water”, i.e. natural oceanic cycles, and not warming that still has yet to occur over the Antarctic.

Prof. Don Easterbrook concluded in 2016 concerning the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which everyone loves to worry about:

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is NOT collapsing, the retreat of these small glaciers is NOT caused by global warming, and sea level is NOT going to rise 10 ft.”

Weather Info Today “80- 90% Nonsense”, Veteran Meteorologist Bemoans Media Hype/Nonsense

Top Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann blasts the quality of modern weather information in Germany, warning that 80-90% of weather stories found in the online media are “false information” or even “made-up nonsense”, and feels his field has become “a hoard of anarchy.”

Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann. Photo source: https://weather.us/

Yesterday here I reported how veteran Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann, 59, called the blaming of single weather events on climate change “complete idiocy”.

The quality of weather reporting and information, and the overall knowledge of natural sciences, have gotten so bad in Germany, according to Kachelmann, that he felt compelled to comment at the online Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung (HAZ). He wrote (link added by author):

 In matters concerning natural sciences, a collective educational precariat rules.”

Meaning: when it comes to knowledge of natural sciences, and especially meteorology, Germany is in trouble, and the citizens are being terribly disinformed.

Excessive, click-baiting media hype

One of the major reasons behind the destructive development, according to Kachelmann, is all the “nonsense” that gets reported by the media concerning the weather.

One example is the often-made claim today that severe thunderstorms or heavy downpours are linked to “climate change”. What in the past used to be just called a storm or bad weather, now gets recorded by countless mobile devices and sent to some studio, where it is hyped and sold as a 100-year event of Biblical proportions.

“Anarchy” ruling day-to-day weather reports

Kachelmann comments how today one often finds weather tips in the German media, e.g. for golfers and mountaineers, but which are in fact “complete idiocy”. Much of the nonsense, the Swiss meteorologist believes, is driven by the media’s insatiable appetite for clicks. “There’s anarchy in the weather report,” Kachelmann writes.

Today every north wind in the wintertime gets dubbed the “Siberian whip!” or every warm summer breeze from the south now gets labelled as a “Saharan heat wave!”, he describes.

Meteorology has become a hoard of anarchy

Kachelmann’s observations are spot on. But we could add that the rush to crank out sensational headlines is not limited to tabloids, but also flagship media outlets and once renowned weather and climatological institutes, who are now getting into the click-baiting, attention-seeking extreme weather frenzy.

For example “renowned” institutes are increasingly linking foul weather to climate change, and warn things are only going to get worse! “We’re toast!” the AP once warned, citing serious scientists.

“80 to 90% false information” …”or made up”

In Kachelmann’s view the field of meteorology has deteriorated so much that he comments at HAZ:

It’s truly a drama: Today 80 to 90 percent of the weather stories in the German online media are false information or often freely made-up nonsense. My science has become a hoard of anarchy.”

He adds:

The absence of knowledge about nature allows every nonsense to be printed — in order to generate clicks — yet not be recognized as such.”

So why has the German citizenry become so weather-disinformed?

Kachmann points to the educational system, where children are allowed to bypass natural science classes at schools. He comments at HAZ:

It is breathtaking what only a few decades and the allowance to skip school subjects can do to a country that, at least in folksongs, was long familiar with storms.”

============================================
Jörg Kachelmann runs Kachelmannwetter.com and, in cooperation with Dr. Ryan Maue, weather.us. He was formerly the meteorologist for flagship ARD German television.

Prominent Swiss Meteorologist Says Blaming Weather Events On Climate Change “Unscientific Idiocy”

No one understands the causes of weather better than highly experienced meteorologists. And so when it comes to questions about extreme weather events, there is no one better to ask than prominent Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann (or Joe Bastardi in the US).

Yesterday at Twitter the veteran, high-profile Swiss meteorologist Kachelmann tweeted about an interview he had given with Austrian online magazine profil.at on the topic of extreme weather in Europe, and how the interview was withdrawn before publication.

Low-blow, dirty media

The main reason behind the withdrawal was Mr. Kachelmann taking issue with what he viewed as low-blow journalism by profil.at, who in the introduction needlessly brought up the phony rape charges lodged against Kachelmann 8 years ago by a scornful ex-girlfriend.

Though the former German flagship ARD television meteorologist was cleared of the charges and got through the legal ordeal, his reputation tragically did not survive the media feeding frenzy and gutter journalism.

To make a long story short, Kachelmann yesterday simply posted a draft of the unpublished profil.at interview at Twitter, before later taking it down.

But I managed to read it and so now report on its content.

Click-hungry sites hyping weather extremes

In the interview, Profil.at questioned Kachelmann about the warmer European springs, weather extremes, serious scientists, and other issues.

On the subject of the recent warmer springs and more severe thunderstorm activity, Kachelmann responded that it has gotten warmer, but that the alleged higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events has more to do with hype coming from places like Facebook and click-hungry Internet sites.

Not linked to climate change

Kachelmann added it’s normal for large weather patterns “to act up” and that it “has nothing to do with climate change”.

However he does attribute the warmer temperatures and higher humidity to climate change and that it is “statistically significant”, but then reminds that the statistics for weather extremes have yet to be shown as being significant.

“Completely senseless tweets from Greenpeace”

When asked about climate denialism and why people like Donald Trump get votes with climate change denialism, the Swiss meteorologist says: “There’s a lack of scientific knowledge on both sides.”

Next he cited examples from on social media:

Over the last weeks I’ve seen so many completely senseless tweets from Greenpeace and green politicians, who wish to blame without any doubt the daily weather on climate change, often with fake statistics, and so climate deniers are not alone. Serious scientists are working quietly between the embarrassing megaphones on both sides.”

Blame measurement instruments?

As an example of just how absurd the media can be, in the interview profil.at unwittingly displayed a remarkable ignorance of climate (which all-too often prevails among the climate-ambulance-chasing-media) in posing the question: “Are there reliable instruments today that would allow us to determine if a weather event can be attributed to climate change, or indeed to the weather pattern at hand?”

Blaming weather on climate change “idiocy”

Kachelman answers by telling profil.at that weather events unfortunately don’t come with a certificate of origin, and any claim that they do needs to be viewed as “unscientific idiocy”.

Another Warming ‘Hole’? Observations Show The North Atlantic COOLED By -0.8°C/Century Since 1800s

In a new paper, scientists document another long-term cooling trend, this time in the North Atlantic’s sea surface temperatures.  Characterized as yet another stubborn “warming hole” in the anthropogenic “global” warming (AGW) narrative, the cooling trend amounts to “0.8 K century-1” and does not follow expectations outlined in models of  global-scale warming.


The portrayal of a globally-synchronous warming of the Earth with only small pockets of “warming hole” anomalies  is not supported by local and regional data reported in scientific papers.

In the Northern Hemisphere, for example, scientists (Kretschmer et al., 2018) have identified other “warming holes” in the temperature data for the 1990-2015 period.  About 80% of the contiguous U.S., Europe and much of Asia, including parts of the Arctic (Eastern Siberia), cooled during the 1990-2015 period, as shown here.

In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica has not warmed in the last 38 years.   And according to Purich et al., 2018, most of the Southern Ocean has been cooling since the late 1970s as well (as shown here).

There are not tiny, isolated holes of cooling in an otherwise uniformly-warming world.  These are gaping expanses of cooling…or non-warming.

Yes, some regions of the globe have been warming.  Some regions have been cooling.  And some regions remain trendless.

But in recent decades, the warming has not been global in scope.


Gervais et al., 2018

Mechanisms Governing the Development of the North Atlantic

Warming Hole in the CESM-LE Future Climate Simulations

“Recent studies have documented the development of a warming deficit in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) both in observations of the current climate (Rahmstorf et al. 2015; Drijfhout et al. 2012) and in future climate simulations (Drijfhout et al. 2012; Marshall et al. 2015; Woollings et al. 2012). This ‘North Atlantic warming hole’ (NAWH) is characterized in the observed record as a region south of Greenland with negative trends in SSTs of 0.8 K century-1 (Rahmstorf et al. 2015). In fully coupled global climate model (GCM) future simulations, the NAWH is seen as a significant deficit in warming within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (Marshall et al. 2015; Winton et al. 2013; Gervais et al. 2016).  This local reduction in future warming is communicated to the overlying atmosphere and may impact atmospheric circulation (Gervais et al. 2016), including the North Atlantic storm track (Woollings et al. 2012).”

5 Other New Papers Also Document A Warming “Hole” In the North Atlantic

  1. Grieman et al., 2018

2. Nicolle et al., 2018

3.  Thornalley et al., 2018

4. Smeed et al., 2018

5. Piecuch et al., 2017

 

Swedish Researchers Confirm 20th Century Warming “Does Not Stand Out” Over Past 2500 Years!

A very recent study by Swedish scientists appearing in the journal Climate of the Past examining bottom water temperature (BWT) off the coast of Western Sweden (Gullmar Fjord) going back 2500 years found that “the most recent warming of the 20th century does not stand out.”

Team of researchers led by Irina Polovodova Asteman, University of Gotheberg, produced a record of bottom water temperature off the coast of western Sweden and found 20th century warming “does not stand out.” Photo: ResearchGate, University of Gothenburg

The 2500-year winter temperature record was of reconstructed by using a fjord sediment archive from the NE Atlantic and through analysis of oxygen isotopes and other methods. The study was based on an approximately 8-meter long sediment core extracted from the Gullmar Fjord (Sweden).

They found that the Gullmar Fjord d18O record mainly reflects variability of the winter bottom water temperatures with a minor salinity influence.

The researchers also pointed out that a comparison with instrumental winter temperature observations from Central England and Stockholm shows that the fjord record picks up the contemporary warming of the 20th century, see following diagrams:

t

t

Chart: Polovodova et al 2018

According to the scientists, the Gullmar Fjord record shows a substantial and long-term warming during the Roman Warm Period (~350 BCE – 450 CE) which was followed by variable bottom water temperatures during the Dark Ages (~450 – 850 CE).

The Viking Age/Medieval Climate Anomaly (~850 – 1350 CE) is also indicated by positive bottom water temperature anomalies, while the Little Ice Age (~1350 – 1850 CE) is characterized by a long-term cooling with distinct multidecadal variability.

The team of Swedish scientists, led by Irina Polovodova Asteman, Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden, noted “the most recent warming of the 20th century does not stand out, but appears to be comparable to both the Roman Warm Period and the MCA (Medieval Climate Anomaly).

 

Coal Use To Explode By 43% Worldwide! …German Energy Expert: “Foundation Of The Paris Accord Has Collapsed”

Yesterday German energy expert and scientist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt commented at his monthly column at Die kalte Sonne site here on solar activity, CO2 and coal power in Germany.

Photo: Fritz Vahrenholt, source: Die kalte Sonne

Sun factor grossly underestimated

Lately the sun’s activity has been very quiet as the star at the center of our solar system transitions over to a new solar cycle. April sunspot activity was very low in May. Vahrenholt then cites a recent study by Lewis and Curry showing that climate sensitivity to CO2 is in fact “up to 45% less than what the IPCC and the mainstream of climate science would like to have us believe.” Vahrenholt comments:

What was interesting however was the reaction of the mainstream: the methods used by Curry and Lewis in the study were not doubted. However, it could mean – according to the mainstream – that the earth will react very differently to CO2 in the future, i.e. get warmer. That’s what we can call speculative science, namely trust in the models which in the past have failed and have not been able to depict ocean circulation and clouds.”

So with CO2 not being at the factor it was made out to be, and because the Paris Accord is based on the spectacle of a rapidly warming planet, Vahrenholt writes that the “foundation of the Paris Accord has collapsed.”

Only Europe and Canada exiting coal

Another reason the Paris Accord is collapsing is because it’s not going to do anything we were promised it would.

When it comes to coal, Vahrenholt notes, so far only Europe and Canada have expressed some sort of a commitment to exit coal, and then he reminds us China, India and all developing countries will still be permitted to continue “massively” expanding their use of coal. He writes:

In China 280,000 MW and in India 174,000 MW are going to be added. By comparison: the entire brown coal fleet in Germany has a capacity of 22,700 MW. 1600 coal-fired power plants will be built in 62 countries across the world, most of them, by the way, will be built by Chinese power plant builders with the help of credits from China. Approximately 15,300 MW in Pakistan, 16,000 in Bangladesh, and even Myanmar with 5100 MW. (Source: South China Morning Post).

In other words, Angela Merkel and her green punch drinkers think the climate is going to be saved if Germany shuts down 1/20 of what China and India are going to add. No wonder Trump dumped the idiotic Accord.

Coal to expand 43% worldwide

And to illustrate what a farce the Paris Accord has become, the German energy expert adds: “In total, coal power plant capacity will expand by 43% worldwide.

Germany to lay out the blueprint for its own demise

Currently Germany is gradually growing obsessed with the idea of a coal exit, and is setting up a Coal Commission to launch the endeavor. The Commission “however will not be made up of energy, power grid and technology experts, but rather with Greenpeace, BUND and local citizens initiatives who are against brown coal,” writes Vahrenholt.

“The idea of including critics of alternative energy, which has become the largest destroyer of nature since WWII, never dawned on any politician.”

Green state fundamentalism

The Coal Commission of course should include Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, fiormer director of the ultra-alarmist Potsdam Institute and architect of the Great Transformation masterplan, which calls for an immediate end to the economic model that is based on “fossil industrial metabolism”, making climate protection the “fundamental target of the state by which the legislative, executive and judicial branches are to align themselves.”

Paris absurdity

According to Vahrenholt, the phase-out of coal will mean the decarbonization of Germany, which in turn will mean its deindustrialization. This, according to Vahrenholt, all coming to the great delight of the Chinese

A dismayed Vahrenholt sums up:

“Trump was clever enough, to exit the Paris absurdity early enough.”

Scientists: Solar Forcing Will ‘Dampen’ Global Temperatures In 2030-2040 – ‘Only 1.1 K’ Warming By 2100

In two new papers, scientists affirm a strong connection between solar activity and the Earth’s climate, as temperatures are said to be 3 times more sensitive to solar forcing than CO2 forcing

With the advent of  a grand minimum in the coming decades, a consequent “dampening” of temperatures (and slowing of sea level rise) is expected. 

Between 2000 and 2100, surface temperatures are only expected to warm by a total of about 1.1°C, a climate change that may ultimately be beneficial.  


McCrann et al., 2018

The effect of the Sun’s activity on Earth’s climate has been identified since the 1800s.  However, there are still many unknowns regarding the mechanisms connecting the Earth’s climate to the variation in solar irradiance. Climate modelling that implements the solar sciences is a novel approach that accounts for the considerable effect that natural factors have on the climate, especially at regional level. This paper discusses the noticeable effect that planet oscillations have on the Sun’s activity, which gives a very good correlation with the observed patterns in global surface temperatures, rainfall records and sea levels.”

“A clear 60-year cycle has been identified in many studies, and in accordance with this, it is expected that temperatures will reach a trough of the cycle around 2030-2040. This is in agreement with the forecasted low sunspot activity that is usually linked to lower temperatures.”

“Furthermore, considering the influence of the Solar Inertial Motion, a solar slowdown is predicted for Solar Cycles 24 and 25, which will create a weak grand minimum. It is anticipated that this weak grand minimum will be reflected in a dampening effect of global temperatures, and a subsequent moderation in the rate of sea level rise.”


Booth, 2018

“The TCR [transient climate response] to doubled CO2 is less than 2K (1.93 ± 0.26K).  Only 1.1 K of HadCRUT4 warming is expected between 2000 and 2100AD.  ∼35% of the warming during 1980–2001 was from solar variability, by 2 different analyses.”

Temperature is nearly 3 times as sensitive to solar radiation as to CO2 radiation.  A model for ocean warming estimates equilibrium sensitivity as 15% greater than TCR [transient climate sensitivity].”

New Hell Climate Change Gets Certified …Schellnhuber Prophesizes “End Of Civilization”

There’s capital to be derived from climate change, and now spiritual leaders and organized religion are getting in the act. And they offer a real Hell you can believe in – even certified by science!

Religion comes up with an all new, improved Hell

As enlightenment over the past decades and centuries have led the masses to doubt the once colorful concept of Hell — that fire-filled place reserved for the incorrigibly unvirtuous and run by reptilian demons — spiritual leaders have seen their clout in modern society erode. No longer is it so easy for them to control people’s behavior with feelings of guilt and threats of eternal damnation.

Recently, however, spiritual leaders have uncovered a new instrument to gain back some control over the masses: climate change – the new, and this time real Hell – yes, that’s been confirmed by 97% of the climate prophets – so disbelieve at your own risk!

Holy Words

This was demonstrated not long ago by Pope Francis’s Laudato si, His second encyclical. According to Wikipedia: “In it, the Pope critiques consumerism and irresponsible development, laments environmental degradation and global warming, and calls all people of the world to take ‘swift and unified global action’.”

The new Hell certified by “leading scientists”!

In a nutshell, do as they say or perish in climate hell. Laudato si was authored in large part by the Pope of Climate Doom himself, Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber of the ultra-alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

And just earlier this week, according to the online thecourier.com here  now the orthodox Christians are getting in on the act too. Once again Orthodox leaders too can let themselves stand morally above all others and preach to us on our sinful ways. And should we, the masses, not heed their Holy Science-Certified Words, then the new Hell (climate change) will ferociously engulf us as never seen before.

Hat-tip: a reader

Frustrated scientists: message “not reaching people”

According to The Courier, leading climate change experts and campaigners gathered in Greece so that they could “work with the leaders of the Orthodox Church and other religions to fight global warming”.

Apparently activists and scientists are frustrated that their message is not reaching people fast enough. The two-day conference was inaugurated by “Green Patriarch” Bartholomew.

If science fails – then move on to faith!

Of course in attendance was the former PIK director and now accepted prophet Hans-Joachim (John) Schellnhuber. He told those in attendance:

Faith can help us because we scientists have tried everything. We can’t say what’s happening in a more compelling way when we warn about the end of civilization.”

According to the Courier, “hundreds of islanders” greeted Bartholomew “upon his arrival by boat”. The conference also included “long-breaded Orthodox priests” who got around in “golf carts and horse-drawn carriages”.

Climate visionaries and dignitaries

Also in attendance was a climate adviser to the Pope: Bill McKibben of 350.org; Jane Lubchenco, former NOAA head under Obama; Patricia Espinosa, UNFCC replacement for Christiana Figueres; Christiana Figueres herself, now Mission 2020; WAPO journalist Juliet Eilperin; and Jeffrey Sachs, economist, Columbia Earth Institute and climate adviser to the Pope.

No word if they came in on row boats, or horse-drawn carriages.

100-Year Russian Arctic Temperature Reconstruction Shows 1930s Just As Warm As Today!

Russian Arctic in 1920-1940 was warmer than today

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

The topic today is the temperature trend in the Arctic. Of special interest are the hard facts. At Climate4You we find the satellite measured temperature development (UAH) of the Arctic:

 Figure 1: Temperature chart of the Arctic over the past 40 years (satellite measurement). Data: UAH. Chart: Climate4You

Arctic temperatures today “similar” to 1980

We do see a warming over the past 4 decades. Since the El Nino-induced peak of 2016, the temperature has fallen gradually. The coldest temperatures were recorded at the end of the 1980s and early 1990s.

At around 1980 similar temperatures as those of today were measured. Unfortunately there is no satellite data for the time before 1979, and so not even a full 60-year ocean cycle is covered, and thus this makes it really difficult to assign warming to man or to natural causes over the recent decades.

Russian Arctic just as warm in the 1930s as today!

But of course there were weather stations before 1979, and these showed a warming phase in the Arctic already in the 1930s and 1940s, a time when it was just as warm as it is today. Example: Opel et al. 2009 reconstructed the temperature history in the Russian Arctic for the last 100 years using ice cores. The warm maximum occurred in the 1930s and not today:

115 year ice-core data from Akademii Nauk ice cap, Severnaya Zemlya: high-resolution record of Eurasian Arctic climate change
From 1999 to 2001 a 724 m deep ice core was drilled on Akademii Nauk ice cap, Severnaya Zemlya, to gain high-resolution proxy data from the central Russian Arctic. Despite strong summertime meltwater percolation, this ice core provides valuable information on the regional climate and environmental history. We present data of stable water isotopes, melt-layer content and major ions from the uppermost 57 m of this core, covering the period 1883–1998. Dating was achieved by counting seasonal isotopic cycles and using reference horizons. Multi-annual δ18O values reflect Eurasian sub-Arctic and Arctic surface air-temperature variations. We found strong correlations to instrumental temperature data from some stations (e.g. r = 0.62 for Vardø, northern Norway). The δ18O values show pronounced 20th-century temperature changes, with a strong rise about 1920 and the absolute temperature maximum in the 1930s. A recent decrease in the deuterium-excess time series indicates an increasing role of the Kara Sea as a regional moisture source. From the multi-annual ion variations we deduced decreasing sea-salt aerosol trends in the 20th century, as reflected by sodium and chloride, whereas sulphate and nitrate are strongly affected by anthropogenic pollution.”

Figure 2: Temperature chart Severnaya Zemlya (Russian Arctic) over the past 130 years. Upper peaks = warm. Source: Opel et al. 2009

A part of the warming by the way, has to do with measures that keep the air clean in Europe. The anthropogenic sulfate particle kept the Arctic cool for many years, so reports that University of Stockholm (via Science Daily). Should we get back to being dirty for reasons of climate change?

European clean air policies unmask Arctic warming by greenhouse gases

[…] The drastic cut in sulfate particle emissions in Europe partly explains the amplified Arctic warming since the 1980s, shows a new study published in Nature Geoscience. The team, which consists of scientists from Stockholm University and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, say that their surprising finding highlights an even more urgent need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate Arctic climate change. Human activities, such as industrial production, transport, power generation, and wood burning emit large amounts of tiny pollutant particles containing, for example, soot and sulfate, into the atmosphere. High airborne amounts of these particles, also known as aerosol particles, cause about 400,000 premature deaths every year in Europe and can be transported over long distances. Aerosol particles have different sizes, as well as chemical and physical properties, all of which determine their climate effects.

“Soot particles absorb solar radiation and warm the climate, in a similar way as greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, do. Sulfate particles, on the other hand, reflect solar radiation and act as seeds for cloud droplet formation, cooling the climate as a result,” says Juan Acosta Navarro, PhD student at the Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry (ACES) and the Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, and co-author of the study. He continues: “The overall effect of aerosol particles of human origin on climate has been a cooling one during the last century, which has partially masked the warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.” […]

J. C. Acosta Navarro, V. Varma, I. Riipinen, Ø. Seland, A. Kirkevåg, H. Struthers, T. Iversen, H.-C. Hansson, A. M. L. Ekman. Amplification of Arctic warming by past air pollution reductions in Europe. Nature Geoscience, 2016; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2673

But also later alterations to the measurement data make the Arctic look warmer today than it actually is (see here and here). A nice summary of climate change in the Arctic can be found at Judith Curry’s site.

The Heat Is Gone! Hurricane Expert: “Tropical Atlantic 2nd Coldest”…”Could Suppress Hurricane Activity”

Unusually cold tropical Atlantic could suppress hurricane activity this year, says Colorado State University hurricane expert Phillip Klotzbach. However cold tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures don’t necessarily mean reduced hurricane risk.

Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane expert Phillip Klotzback at Twitter commented that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are the 2nd coldest on record and that this could mean “significantly suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.”

Cold tropical Atlantic doesn’t mean fewer hurricanes hitting US!

However history shows that it is purely speculative that cold tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will act to suppress hurricanes hitting the US.

Klotzback notes that the coldest tropical sea surface temperatures seen in June were recorded in 1985, and looking at the 1985 US hurricane season Wikipedia tells us that season was in fact a rather nasty one for the entire east coast of the USA:

The 1985 Atlantic hurricane season featured eight landfalling tropical cyclones in the United States, including a record-tying six hurricanes, the most in a single year since 1916.

 

1985 season record “destructive and disruptive”

Wikipedia writes that “the year featured average activity overall” but was “particularly destructive and disruptive for the United States, with damage amounting to a then-record US$4 billion.”

Further, Wikipedia adds: “The entire coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, was under a gale warning at some point during the year and a portion of every state was under a hurricane warning.

Bastardi warns of the “in-close” threat

Observing the 1985 hurricane chart, we see that the vast majority of the 11 named storms formed “in-close”, relatively near the US mainland.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi warned in his May 26th WeatherBell Saturday Summary that warm waters near the coast needed real attention and harbored plenty of threat. In no way should people let themselves get casual about it.

So, don’t let all the cold tropical Atlantic surface water fool you into  thinking that the upcoming hurricane season is going to be on the light side for the US coast.

1985 shows us things can get pretty nasty even when the surface of the tropical Atlantic basin is cold.

===============================
Philip Klotzback is a meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Avid runner, cyclist and hiker.

Scientists Find Sun-Driven Temperature Changes Led CO2 Changes By 1300-6500 Years In The Ancient Past

It has long been established in the scientific literature (and affirmed by the IPCC) that CO2 concentration changes followed Antarctic temperature changes by about 600 to 1000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions throughout the last ~800,000 years (Fischer et al., 1999Monnin et al., 2001Caillon et al., 2003Stott et al., 2007Kawamura et al., 2007).

In contrast, two new papers cite evidence that the timing of the lagged CO2 response to temperature changes may have ranged between 1300 and 6500 years in some cases.  It would appear that a millennial-scale lagged response to temperature undermines the claim that CO2 concentration changes were a driver of climate in the ancient past.  


Koutavas et al., 2018

Temperature correlations between the eastern equatorial

Pacific and Antarctica over the past 230,000 years

“The EEP [eastern equatorial Pacific] stack shows persistent covariation with Antarctic temperature on orbital and millennial timescales indicating tight coupling between the two regions. This coupling however cannot be explained solely by CO2 forcing because in at least one important case, the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e–5d glacial inception, both regions cooled 5–6.5 thousand years before CO2 decreased. More likely, their covariation was due to advection of Antarctic climate signals to the EEP by the ocean.”
The discovery that atmospheric CO2 covaries with Antarctic temperature and global ice volume (Lorius et al., 1990; Lüthi et al., 2008; Petit et al., 1999) has propelled CO2 to the forefront as climatic “globalizer”.  However, the processes governing CO2 variability are themselves poorly understood, and likely require an oceanic/climatic trigger in the first place (Adkins, 2013; Ferrari et al., 2014; Sigman et al., 2010).”
“Antarctic ice core records are furthermore ambiguous with regard to the causal relationship between CO2 and temperature. Phase relationships show CO2 lagging behind temperature in the obliquity band (Jouzel et al., 2007) and across some major transitions (Caillon et al., 2003; Fischer et al., 1999; Kawamura et al., 2007; WAIS Divide Project Members, 2013), most prominently during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e–5d boundary, i.e. the last glacial inception. Antarctic cooling at this time was associated with a major Milankovitch signal, and appears to have transpired almost entirely before the change in CO2 concentration. It remains unclear whether the temperature lead was restricted to Antarctica or was broader.”

Uemura et al., 2018

Asynchrony between Antarctic temperature and CO2

associated with obliquity over the past 720,000 years

“Precise knowledge of the relationship between changes in temperature, atmospheric CO2 and solar insolation is essential to understanding Earth’s climate system. The values of a temperature proxy, the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD), in the Antarctic EDC ice core have varied in parallel with CO2 concentrations over the past 800 thousand years (kyr; r2 = 0.82). However, δD [temperature] apparently leads CO2 variations.”
The lead is ca. 2000 years at a West Antarctic site.”
Over the past 420 kyr, the Vostok ice core shows that the Antarctic δD temperatures lead the CO2 variations by 1.3 ± 1.0 kyr.”
During the lukewarm interglacials (430–650 kyr BP), Antarctic δD [temperature] leads CO2 by 1900 years, and the correlation between CO2 and δD is weaker (r2 = 0.57), as determined from the EDC core.”
“Although the mechanisms underlying the coupling and the phase lags remain unclear, the Southern Ocean region, rather than Antarctica, is thought to play the central role in regulating CO2 variations. A box model, for example, estimated a ca. 60% increase in CO2 during TI that is attributable to direct and indirect temperature effects, such as changes in sea ice cover and vertical mixing in the Southern Ocean. On millennial time scales, a multi-proxy study suggests that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes resulted in Antarctic temperatures leading global temperatures and CO2 during TI [the last glacial termination].  … [O]ur data suggest that the lead in Antarctic δD temperatures (i.e. temperature without correcting for source effects) over CO2 is partly attributable to the effects of the moisture source on δD temperatures over the past 720 kyr in the obliquity band. These results suggest that the importance of moisture source effects for the obliquity signal in δD. Thus, the source effect must be considered in future research about the relationship between Antarctic temperatures and CO2.”
Within the obliquity frequency band, our analyses suggest that temperature variations in Antarctica have led ocean temperatures throughout the past 720 kyr. This phenomenon is most likely explained by the strong influence of local AMI on ΔT. … During TI [the last glacial termination], CO2 rose at ~18 kyr BP, which is related to the melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet and the subsequent weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Thus, the timing at which CO2 begins to rise during a termination would be determined by when the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet begins to melt. When eccentricity is small, the summer insolation maxima are small. Thus, if obliquity rises beyond the threshold of melting, a moderate climate forcing could cause warming enough that the southern margin of the North American ice sheet begin to retreat.”

Studies Indicating Temperature-CO2 Lag Was 600-1000 Years


IPCC (2007)

“Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature changes in Antarctica with a lag of some hundreds of years.”

Stott et al., 2007

Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming
“Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years.”

Caillon et al., 2003

“The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 ± 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.”

Fischer et al., 1999

“High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations.”

Monnin et al., 2001

The start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years.”

Indermuhle  et al., 2000

“The lag was calculated for which the correlation coefficient of the CO2 record and the corresponding temperatures values reached a maximum. The simulation yields a [CO2] lag of (1200 ± 700) yr.”

Kawamura et al., 2007    

“Our chronology also indirectly gives the timing of the CO2 rise at [glacial] terminations, which occurs within 1 kyr of the increase in Antarctic temperature.”

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