During The 800s-1300s AD, Wine Grapes Were Grown At Latitudes Where Polar Bears Now Roam

1-2°C Warmer Medieval Times Supported Wine

  Vineyards In Russia, Norway, N England (55°N)  

Image Source: Wikipedia – public domain image

Canada’s stable-to-increasing polar bear population extends its range slightly further south of the 55th parallel (York et al., 2016).

Image Source: York et al., 2016

According to published geological evidence from the 1950s, remnants of wine grape vineyards have been unearthed in regions as far north as the polar-bear-inhabiting 55th parallel during the Medieval Warm Period (~800s to 1300s AD).


OUR CHANGING CLIMATE, PAST AND PRESENT

Lamb, 1959

There was a secondary optimum of climate between 400 and 1200 A.D., the peak probably being 800-1000 A.D. This was on the whole a dry, warm period and apparently remarkably stormfree in the Atlantic and in the North Sea. It was the time of lowland settlement in the Saxon lands and of considerable flowering of Celtic and Northumbrian cultures. Missions from the Celtic Church in Ireland were sent as far as Africa and Iceland. It was also the time of great Viking voyages and the settlement of Iceland and Greenland. The early Norse burials in Greenland were deep in ground which is now permanently frozen. There were several visits to America (probably many timbergetting voyages between Greenland and Labrador) and there is evidence which suggests that at least one Viking ship got through the North-West Passage and ultimately reached the Gulf of California (cf. Ives 1953).”
“In Domesday Book (1085) 38 vineyards were recorded in England besides those of the kingThe wine was considered almost equal with the French wine both in quantity and quality as far north as Gloucestershire and the Ledbury area of Herefordshire where the soil is said to resemble that of the Rhine and Moselle wine districts. The London basin, the Medway valley and the Isle of Ely were also favoured districts. 
The northernmost vineyards were near York [northern England] but the most favoured country was from Northants and the Fenland southwards. This implies summer temperatures perhaps 1 to 2°C higher than today, general freedom from May frosts (particularly suggested by the exposure to the north of several low-lying vineyard sites, e.g. at Tewkesbury, in the Fens and at Teynham, Kent) and mostly good Septembers.”

Wine Produced In East Prussia, Lithuania, South Norway

At one time (1128-1437) wine had been produced in East Prussia.”
Grapes grew even at Tilsit (55°N) in Lithuania [Russia]…”
“…and in south Norway…”

Wine Produced At 220 Meters Higher Elevation Than 1959…And Today

“…[Grapes grew] as high as 780 m above sea level in the Black Forest [Germany].”
The highest vineyards in Germany today [1959] are about 560 m near the Boden Sea in Baden.”

The highest vineyard in Germany today, located at Lake Constance, is still 560 m above sea level, the same maximum height as it was in the late 1950s.  The modern elevation is therefore 220 meters lower elevation for German wine-making than during the Medieval Warm Period.

Grape Harvesting 500 Kilometers North Of Present From 1100 – 1300 A.D.

Easterbrook, 2011

The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a time of warm climate from about 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D. when global temperatures were apparently somewhat warmer than at present. Its effects were evident in Europe where grain crops flourished, alpine tree lines rose, many new cities arose, and the population more than doubled. The Vikings took advantage of the climatic amelioration to colonize Greenland, and wine grapes were grown as far north as England where growing grapes is now not feasible and about 500 km north of present vineyards in France and Germany. Grapes are presently grown in Germany up to elevations of about 560 m, but from about 1100 A.D. to 1300 A.D., vineyards extended up to 780 m, implying temperatures warmer by about 1.0-1.4°C (Oliver, 1973). Wheat and oats were grown around Trondheim, Norway, suggesting climates about 1°C warmer than present (Fagan, 2000).”

Grape Harvest Date Histories Reveal Little To No Change Since The 1600s–1800s

Guillet et al., 2017

Moreno et al., 2016 

“This paper reports a climatic reconstruction approach for the Minho region (NW of Portugal) using grape harvest dates (GHD) as proxy of surface air temperature.”

Climate Skepticism Storms Into Germany’s Bundestag As Parliamentarians More Concerned About Getting Out Of Town!

Happy Easter!

Germany’s right-wing AfD party and (at times) the FDP Free Democrats, are the only parties across the German political landscape who are challenging climate change science and the country’s much maligned Energiewende.

Of course the media in Germany, where man-made climate disaster is accepted as fact, tries to use this to portray skeptics as being extremist and crackpot.

Yet, the FDP and AfD together make up a formidable 25% of the German Parliament, and so climate policy is no longer getting the unanimous free pass it used to get. Also a faction of Angela Merkel’s CDU party have expressed reservations about climate science and green energies. Some things are moving.

Skepticism is budding in Germany, and that is in some ways remarkable in the consensus-driven country.

On Friday, March 23, before the Bundestag (German Parliament), Karsten Hilse of the AfD (Alternativ für Deutschland – Alternative for Germany) party told before Parliament that there is nothing unusual happening to the global climate today, and that the changes we are currently observing are well within the natural range.

Hilse then scoffs at claims the planet is heading for an apocalypse.

(Please excuse the poor audio quality).

Next Hilse reminds that climate is defined as the mean of 30 years of weather, and goes on to call measures aimed at “protecting weather” absurd. He also alludes to the corrupt nature of German climate research: “The institutes deliver exactly what their funders request.”

Hilse expressed his party’s doubts that one extra molecule of CO2 per 10,000 has the climate impact that is often claimed to have. He reminds that the global warming is mostly generated in models – models that are unable to reproduce the past, and thus cannot be relied on to make forecasts for the future.

At the 2:40 mark Hilse fields a question from an opposing Parliamentarian, who asks why Hilse rejects the consensus of “99% of independent scientists”. “Which scientific sources are you citing for your pseudo-statements?” Hlise explains (amid some background shouting) that the study in question is flawed: Of the 12,000 publications examined, some 8000 took no position at all. Background here.

Near the end, Hilse went on to reject the government’s de-carbonization effort by 2050, often dubbed as the Great Transformation, and Germany’s participation in binding international decarbonization treaties.

He also says the AfD is calling for a stop to the financing of pseudoscience and an immediate stop of the German EEG renewable feed-in act, which he calls a “socialist redistribution”, that so far “has cost consumers several hundreds of billions of euros”.

Parliamentarians more concerned about leaving town early

Viewers will note how the Parliament is almost empty for that particular session on CO2 emissions, which tells us just how seriously the German government takes “humanity’s greatest threat”.

Image: Screenshot of the homepage of the Deutscher Bundestag Mediathek

Obviously few of them cared enough to show up, and most were more concerned about getting out of town really early for the weekend.

Central Europe’s Wintry Spring Start…March Mean Temp Almost 2°C Below Normal…2nd White Easter In A Row

Germany’s DWD national weather service has released the preliminary mean weather results for the country for March, 2018: “In summary a cold March, again snow in the north and east.”

Wintry 2018 spring start in Germany. Photo by P Gosselin.

The reason for the cold March, according to the DWD: “Germany was in a mostly dry, very cold easterly air pattern. Atlantic lows from the west could hardly make any headway.”

According to data collected from the country’s 2000 weather stations, Germany’s preliminary mean temperature for the first month of spring came in at only 2.5°C, which is 1.8°C below the 1981-2010 reference period mean.

The coldest treading recorded was -19.2°C  occurring at Barth near Stralsund. March, 2018, was the second month in a row with below mean temperatures in Central Europe.

The following chart gives the mean temperature for each state (Source: DWD):

März 2018 / DWD (Quelle DWD)

March was drier than normal as well, with 50 l/m2 of precipitation falling (mean = 57 l/m2). However, the DWD writes that March 2018 was “characterized by extreme wintery periods, with considerable snowfall in some regions.” Also some “lake-effect” areas near the Baltic sea saw 40 cm of snow. “

At 110 hours of sunshine, Germany almost hit the dead mean of 11 hours.

Austria: “Unusual number of frost days”

Meanwhile Austria’s weather and climate service ZAMG reports that March has come in “cool and overcast”.

According to ZAMG climatologist Alexander Orlik, sunshine came in 20% below the mean and temperature came in at 1.3°C below the mean. There wasalso “an unusual number of frost days, where the temperature does not climb above the freezing point. the ZAMP reports. Vienna saw five such days and Graz saw four. Normally these cities see only one “frost day” every two or three years in March.

Another white Easter!

Meanwhile for some parts of Germany snow is forecast for the Easter holidays. According to Tag24, snow is expected to fall in Saxony. This will be the second Easter in a row with snow. What follows is a vid of Wolfsburg, Saturday, March 31st:

So, Europeans have been waiting 18 years for snow to become a thing of the past. Increasingly it’s becoming a thing of spring.

Snow Cover, Ice Volume Growth Show Global Climate Is A Lot More Than Just “Surface Temperature”

Growing polar ice mass in a warm world?

Although a number of scientists are hollering that 2017 was “among the warmest on record”, we are not seeing any manifestation of this, at least over the northern hemisphere, where ironically snow and ice have shown surprising extents. This year the northern hemisphere winter has been surprisingly cold and brutal over a number of regions.

Snow and ice cover reach unexpected high levels

Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover this winter has taken an unexpected turn, reaching surprisingly high levels.

On March 20, 2018, northern hemisphere snow and ice cover was over 1 standard deviation above normal. Source: Environment Canada.

As the above chart shows, over much of the winter of 2017/2018, snow and ice cover was well above normal, bucking the assumption that warm surface means it’s warm everywhere. That’s a clear sign that climate is a lot more just than a few measurement points at the surface.

And with all the surface “warmth” allegedly occurring at the Arctic this winter and the recent consecutive years of “record high global temperatures”, one would have to logically conclude the Arctic and Antarctic have to be melting rapidly. Yet snow cover data show a very different story:

Total northern hemisphere snow and ice cover this winter has been exceptionally high, according to the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

Cold below the surface?

Ice cover area is only one indicator of the climate system. More important is Arctic sea ice volume, as ice shrinks when it warms and grows when it cools.

Looking at the Arctic sea ice volume on March 15, 2018, we see that it is far above what was recorded 10 years earlier:

Arctic sea ice volume has rebounded and is close to normal levels, despite the very warm surface conditions in the Arctic this past winter. This can only indicate that other sub surface cooling factors (such as ocean dynamics) are at play.

This shows us that surface warming does not say anything about global warming, and vice versa when it comes to cooling.

Antarctic cooling in a warming planet?

No place has bucked warming more than Antarctica, which has shown a clear growing sea ice cover since 1980. A recent study concluded:

Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends.”

In other words, it gets down to below surface ocean and above surface solar cycles.

Surface climate is not global climate

Global surface temperatures are arguably a very poor indicator of global temperature. Surface is only a thin slice from a vast system.

Above the earth’s surface we have miles of highly dynamic atmosphere. And above that we have the tempestuous moods of the sun, which ultimately fuels the entire earth climate system. Below the earth’s surface we have kilometers of a vast dynamic ocean, whose mass is 100 times that of the atmosphere above us.

The reality: the earth’s thin surface tells us almost nothing about the entire seabed-to-ionosphere system.

Calling the conditions at the surface “global climate” is extremely narrow minded. It’s like a traffic engineer measuring the number of cars going by at one point along an unknown street only once over 30 seconds and hoping that data will let him to accurately calculate total traffic flow over a whole day, month or an entire year.

Missing data volume 10,000 to 1

The ocean is in a state of constant of flux involving huge complex currents and cycles with periods ranging from months to centuries. Very few of these cycles are understood to any appreciable extent. Scientists are still not able to forecast the ENSO.

Moreover at the seabed there are also thousands of active volcanoes. No one could possibly know what climate-impacting beasts lurk beneath the surface of the oceans.

So when it comes to making useful predictions, the data volume we are missing is conservatively 10,000 times greater than the scant data we have collected thus far. So any scientist who claims he can make a reliable forecast 100 years out must either be incompetent, or a fraud.

Ocean surface temperatures have cooled recently

To show how fast things can change, the following chart shows how much ocean surface temperature changed in just one week:

Ocean surface temperatures showed widespread cooling over the past 7 days. Source: Tropical Tidbits

This means that the oceans are real, unpredictable climate drivers.

Another Bust: PAGES 2k ‘Global’ Reconstruction Fails To Confirm The ‘Hockey Stick’

A Deconstruction Of The

PAGES 2k ‘Hockey Stick’

Image adapted from PAGES 2k, 2015

Five years ago, the release of the PAGES 2k Consortium (2013) “global” temperature data set was accompanied by a great deal of fanfare.

Advocates deemed the conglomeration of proxy temperature data from 7 land regions as scientific confirmation of the notorious hockey-stick-shaped temperature reconstruction popularized by Michael Mann and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, TAR) in the early 2000s.

The New York Times featured interviews with the lead authors of the study upon its release.  While emphasizing the exceptionality of modern warmth, the authors acknowledged that “temperatures in some regions were higher in the past then they were during the late 20th century.”

“In Europe, slightly higher reconstructed temperatures were registered in A.D. 741–770, and the interval from A.D. 21–80 was substantially warmer than 1971–2000.”
Antarctica was probably warmer than 1971–2000 for a time period as recent as A.D. 1671–1700, and the entire period from 141–1250 was warmer than 1971–2000.”

After corrections to “several errors” (more on this below) in the Arctic reconstruction, the 1971-2000 decades were only deemed the third warmest in the record, with the 3 decades around 400 AD the warmest.

“Following these corrections, the period from 1941–1970 emerges as the second warmest 30-year period in the Arctic record, and 1971–2000 the third warmest, rather than the first and second warmest as reported in the original version. The ranked order of the best estimate of temperature indicates that the warmest 30-year period is centred on AD 395(PAGES 2k, 2015).

When viewing the supplemental data and comparing the PAGES 2k reconstructions to other Basic Composites, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of unusual or exceptional characteristics about the 20th century’s temperatures relative to the beginning of the 2nd millennium and earlier (for the few records that extend back that far).

Images: PAGES 2k ConsortiumSupplementary

Is This Really A Global, 2,000-Year Reconstruction?

The PAGES 2k temperature reconstruction utilizes proxy data from 7 land regions, but excludes the entire continent of Africa. (Oceans, covering 71% of the Earth’s surface, are also excluded from this “global” record.)

Despite being hailed as a global-scale, 2,000-year reconstruction, just 2 of the 7 regions, the Arctic and Europe, analyzed temperatures from the entire 0 AD to 2000 period.

Antarctica was represented beginning in 167 AD.  Asia begins in 800 AD.  South America begins in 857 AD.  North America proxy data begins in 1204 AD and ends in 1974 (tree rings) and 480 to 1950 (pollen).  Australasia begins in 1001 AD.

Steve McIntyre Spots ‘Several Errors’ Corrupting Arctic 2k; Some Are Corrected In 2014

Steve McIntyre, known for his evisceration of the questionable data-collection processes in the construction of “hockey stick” graphs, identified several suspicious “errors” corrupting the Arctic data set.   He wrote about them on his blog.

“Kaufman’s proxies are fraught with defects. Kaufman has already acknowledged that one of his supersticks (Igaliku) was contaminated by modern agriculture; and that another non-H13 series (Hvitarvatn) was used upside down.
Several series, thought to be temperature proxies as recently as 2013, were removed in August [2014] as no longer ‘temperature proxies’.  For inexplicable reasons, Kaufman failed to remove all the contamination from the Igaliku series and his inversion of the Hvitarvatn points to major inconsistencies with other series.”

The PAGES 2k authors reported that these “several errors” were “discovered” following publication.  A list of 5 of these errors were mentioned in a “correction” paper.

“Here we present an Arctic regional temperature reconstruction that revises the one published recently by the PAGES 2k Consortium.  The revisions include updating records using more recent published studies from three sites, and correcting several errors discovered following publication of the PAGES 2k Consortium article. … 1. Three records were removed because of insufficient evidence that they are sensitive to temperature.  2. Sections of five records that were interpreted by the authors to violate criterion 5 were removed.  3. The interpreted temperature relation of the series from Hvítárvatn was corrected from positive to negative [warming to cooling].  4. A 50-year offset in the ages of the record from Lone Spruce Pond was corrected.  5. The coordinates of the Copper River tree-ring reconstruction were corrected” (McKay and Kaufman, 2014).

Curiously, the corrupt and error-ridden data contributing to Arctic 2k dataset seemed to go in one direction and one direction only: they cooled the past and warmed the present.

The odds of a large series of unforced mistakes consistently occurring with one sign (cooling) for one period (the 1st millennium) and the opposite sign (warming) for another period (the 20th century) are extremely low.  And yet it happened.

Image adapted from McKay and Kaufman, 2014

After corrections to the originally erroneous and corrupted PAGES 2K reconstruction, much of the entire 0-1,000 AD period turned out to be just as warm (if not warmer in some decades) as the 20th century.  Here’s what the corrected (red) Arctic reconstruction looked like as of 2014, with the corrupted (black) data removed.

Notice that all or nearly all the Arctic warming occurred from the late 1800s to the 1940s, with no net change (even cooling) from the 1940s through 2000.  This is consistent with the instrumental record (Hanhijarvi et al., 2013; HadCRUT4 via  Climate4You).

A Corrigendum Is Published, But 2 ½ Years Later

It took until late 2015 for the PAGES 2k authors to finally issue a corrigendum to their error-riddled “global” reconstruction graph released in 2013.   Dr. Steve McIntyre was acknowledged for “discovering” their “several errors”.

The blogosphere that favors hockey-stick-shaped graphs uniformly ignored the corrected depiction of “global” temperatures in the corrigendum, preferring the erroneous 2013 graph that shows more warming in recent decades and less warming during the 1st millennium.

As before, the obligatory “hockey stick” blade was tendentiously inserted at the end of the record to make the 20th century appear exceptional.

Image: PAGES 2k, 2015

Visual Paradigm Shift: The Cooling Is Anomalous – Modern Warmth A Return To Normal

As suggested, the reason why the “hockey stick” blade was added to the partially corrected “global” PAGES 2k record was to visually persuade readers that  the modern period is anomalous and unusual.

But if we look at the presented data from all 7 regions in PAGES 2k from another angle, a distinct pattern emerges that identifies the modern temperatures as the norm, and the mid-1300s to early 1900s cooling period as the exception.   The 20th century warmth is merely a return to the normal temperatures that characterized most of the Late Holocene.

Image adapted from PAGES 2k, 2015

The anomalously cool years can be viewed even more conspicuously when adding simulated temperatures to the post-2000 record.

This same pattern can be identified in the regional reconstructions as well.  The Arctic’s 1880s to 1940s abrupt warming trend (and subsequent non-warming) reached amplitudes compatible with past Holocene periods.

In sum, nothing climatically unusual has happened in the last 150 years relative to the last two millennia.

The Late Holocene’s normal temperatures have (fortunately) returned.

Germany Proves That Burning Money On Green Energies Does Not Reduce CO2 Emissions…”Bitter Result”

German CO2 equivalent emissions refuse to budge 10 straight years running, despite hundreds of BILLIONS invested in green energies.

As we have been hearing recently, global CO2 emissions continue their steady climb, despite the trillions of dollars committed to green energy sources worldwide and efforts to curb CO2 emissions.

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA).

Looking at countries individually, Germany, a self-designated “leader” for carbon free energies, saw its equivalent CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in 2017 fall only a measly half a percent.

Big green talk, so little to show

If any country has seen huge chasm between its CO2 reductions performance and its lofty green rhetoric, Germany is it.

Despite the hundreds of billions already spent on green energies, mainly, wind, sun and biogas, Paris Accord cheerleader Germany has not seen any progress in CO2 reductions ten years running:

Germany CO2 equivalent emissions, millions of metric tons. Source UBA.

According to Germany’s UBA Umweltbundesamt (Federal Environment Agency), Germany’s reductions still remain stuck at the levels of 10 years ago (2009 = 908 million tonnnes CO2 equivalent – see chart above).

Dubious 1990 benchmark

Most of the country’s CO2 reductions since 1990 arose from the shutdown of old communist run East German industry, after the eastern and western parts of the divided nation united in 1990.

Offshored emissions, pollution

Also huge CO2 reductions resulted from the offshoring of energy-intensive industries, to countries where regulations are less strict, labor is cheaper and energy efficiency is woefully lower; for example: China. The true result: Germany managed to cut its CO2 equivalent emissions, but the net result is most likely greater overall CO2 emissions.

The same could be said about plastic in our oceans. Often it’s best to keep the industry home, where at least it’s done far more cleanly.

Huge price for so little result

Moreover, Germany’s investment in green energies really did not begin in earnest until 2005, and so the results have been truly a flop. All that money for so little.

Meanwhile environmental groups have come out and blasted Germany’s weakling result. Alarmist climate and energy site Klimaretter (Climate rescuer) commented here:  “Germany is practically making no climate change progress at all.”

Greenpeace Germany’s Karsten Smid fumed: “The UBA figures are the bitter result of Chancellor Merkel’s climate policy.”

As Karakorum Glacier Stability Puzzles Global Warming Experts, The Scientific Excuses Start To Fly

Awhile back a number of scientists hopped on the bandwagon claim that the Himalayan glaciers would be gone by the year 2030. That claim was quickly exposed as being preposterous and so the red-faced scientists backed off and said they had in fact meant the year 2300. Today that figure as well is also looking fake.

Now scientists are busy making excuses to explain the unexpected non-melting.
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Karakorum glaciers ignore the command to melt: Reason may be due to vortex, or irrigation, or…

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The glaciers of the world are melting. Many, but not all.

And in earlier times there were also phases of melting before the Little Ice Age, a time when glaciers saw strong growth. It’s important to keep this in historical context. In today’s post we look at the latest results from glacier research out of Asia.

Let’s start in Karakorum. Tobias Bolch and his colleagues documented the central part of the mountains in the region and found that the glaciers there are for the most part stable:

Brief communication: Glaciers in the Hunza catchment (Karakoram) have been nearly in balance since the 1970s
Previous geodetic estimates of mass changes in the Karakoram revealed balanced budgets or a possible slight mass gain since  ∼  2000. Indications of longer-term stability exist but only very few mass budget analyses are available before 2000. Here, based on 1973 Hexagon KH-9,  ∼  2009 ASTER and the SRTM DTM, we show that glaciers in the Hunza River basin (central Karakoram) were on average in balance or showed slight insignificant mass loss within the period  ∼  1973–2009. Heterogeneous behaviour and frequent surge activities were also characteristic of the period before 2000. Surge-type and non-surge-type glaciers showed on average no significantly different mass change values. However, some individual glacier mass change rates differed significantly for the periods before and after  ∼  2000.”

Overall the glaciers in Karakoram appear to be growing. How can this be? Newcastle University believes it knows why. It’s the vortex!

Researchers crack the ‘Karakoram anomaly’

A summer ‘vortex’ of cold air over the Karakoram mountain range is causing the glaciers in the region to grow in spite of global warming, scientists have shown.

Publishing their findings today in Nature Climate Change, the team from Newcastle University, UK, have identified a large scale circulation system — or vortex — centred over the Karakoram, a large mountain range spanning the borders of Pakistan, India, and China. In winter, the vortex affects the temperature over the whole 2,000 kilometre mountain range, but in the summer the vortex contracts and has an effect only over the Karakoram and western Pamir. This induces an anomalous cooling in summer which is different to the warming seen over the rest of the Himalaya.

Co-author Professor Hayley Fowler, says this Karakoram vortex goes some way to explaining why the glaciers in this region are behaving differently to those in most other parts of the world. ‘While most glaciers are retreating as a result of global warming, the glaciers of the Karakoram range in South Asia are stable or even growing,’ explains Professor Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University. ‘Most climate models suggest warming over the whole region in summer as well as in winter.’

‘However, our study has shown that large-scale circulation is controlling regional variability in atmospheric temperatures, with recent cooling of summer temperatures. This suggests that climate models do not reproduce this feature well. We don’t know how climate change will affect this circulation system and what the effect of sudden shifts might be. But the circulation system is currently providing a dampening effect on global warming, reducing glacial melt in the Karakoram region and any change will have a significant effect on ice melt rates, which would ultimately affect river flows in the region.’

The Karakoram anomaly

Usually, glaciers oscillate between growth and retreat. Snow falls on the peaks and gradually compacts and turns to ice while lower down the glaciers lose ice to melting and evaporation. If snowfall equals snowmelt, the glacier is in equilibrium but global warming has tipped the balance so that most of the world’s glaciers are shrinking. The Karakoram anomaly was first described in 2005 and since then, scientists have been trying to determine what might be causing the expansion of glaciers in the region – which includes the world’s second largest mountain K2.

Acting like a counter-weighted temperature control, the unique summer interaction of the Karakoram vortex and the South Asian Monsoon causes temperatures in the Karakoram and Pamir to cool while those in the Central and Eastern Himalaya are warming, and vice versa. Over recent decades, these vortex-monsoon interactions have resulted in stormier conditions over the Karakoram. ‘This vortex provides an important temperature control,’ explains Newcastle University’s Dr Nathan Forsythe, lead author of the study.

‘It is therefore important to look at how it has changed and influenced temperature over the last century so we can better understand how a change in the system might affect future climate. This is of huge importance in terms of food security because of the large populations that rely on water resources from snow and ice melt from the mountainous catchments to grow their irrigated crops in the Indus Plains of the Sindh and Punjab states and provinces of Pakistan and India.‘”

Other scientists have other theories. A group led by Remco de Kok explained in February, 2018, that perhaps the manmade irrigation in the Tarim Basin is supplying additional moisture into the atmosphere, which then precipitates as snow and thus causes glacial growth:

Irrigation as a Potential Driver for Anomalous Glacier Behavior in High Mountain Asia
Many glaciers in the northwest of High Mountain Asia (HMA) show an almost zero or positive mass balance, despite the global trend of melting glaciers. This phenomenon is often referred to as the “Karakoram anomaly,” although strongest positive mass balances can be found in the Kunlun Shan mountain range, northeast of the Karakoram. Using a regional climate model, in combination with a moisture‐tracking model, we show that the increase in irrigation intensity in the lowlands surrounding HMA, particularly in the Tarim basin, can locally counter the effects of global warming on glaciers in Kunlun Shan, and parts of Pamir and northern Tibet, through an increase in summer snowfall and decrease in net radiance. Irrigation can thus affect the regional climate in a way that favors glacier growth, and future projections of glacier melt, which may impact millions of inhabitants surrounding HMA, will need to take into account predicted changes in irrigation intensity.”

Wang et al. 2017 had already suggested increased rainfall as the driver behind the growth in glaciers in the Pamir and Hindukush mountains.

In September 2017 Times of India, reminded the glacier melt is not a phenomenon unique to the past 70 years, but rather started already 400 years ago:

Himalayan glaciers melting for 400 years, finds BSIP study[…] the phenomenon of Himalayan glaciers melting is not a recent one. In fact, it has been happening for 400 years. It was during the Little Ice Age, a period of cold conditions from 1645 CE-1715 CE, that Arctic and sub-Arctic glaciers were expanding but Himalayan glaciers were melting.”

Read more at the Times of India

Brun et al. 2017 published the latest glacier results from the Himalayas Region since 2000:

We calculate a total mass change of −16.3 ± 3.5 Gt yr−1 (−0.18 ± 0.04 m w.e. yr−1) between 2000 and 2016, which is less negative than most previous estimates.”

 

Groundbreaking New Paper Finds Global Warming, Ice Melt ‘Not Related To Sea Level Rise’

1 – 2 Meters Of Sea Level Rise By

2100 A ‘Highly Erroneous’ Claim

Geophysicist and tectonics expert Dr. Aftab Khan has unearthed a massive fault in the current understanding of (1) rapid sea level rise and its fundamental relation to (2) global-scale warming/polar ice melt.

Succinctly, Dr. Khan concludes the two have little to nothing to do with one another.

That’s because land height changes — subsidence (sinking) or uplift (rising) — connected to the Earth’s gravitational attraction and shifting plates assume the dominant role in determining sea level rise and fall.   The extent to which thermal expansion from rising ocean heat contributes to sea level rise is, as Dr. Khan indicates, “definitely a conjecture”.

Uplift And Subsidence Occurring Today

Along the coast of Juneau, Alaska, for example, the land surface has been rapidly rising due to gravitational uplift for many decades.  Consequently, relative sea levels are plummeting in this region at a rate of over -13 mm/yr (-5 inches per decade) according to NOAA.

The opposite is occurring along the U.S. Gulf coast (Grand Isle, Louisiana), where the land area is sinking and thus sea levels are rising at a rate of over +9 mm/yr.

Sea Level Rise Trends Not Determinative Of Shoreline Changes 

Many other scientists have also concluded that “sea level rise is not the primary factor controlling the shoreline changes” in regions where sea level rise is quite high.   Even at rates exceeding 5 mm/yr, sea levels aren’t rising fast enough to overcome the much more pronounced changes in coastal expansion due to accretion and uplift.

Testut et al., 2016

We show that Grande Glorieuse Island has increased in area by 7.5 ha between 1989 and 2003, predominantly as a result of shoreline accretion [growth]: accretion occurred over 47% of shoreline length, whereas 26% was stable and 28% was eroded. Topographic transects and field observations show that the accretion is due to sediment transfer from the reef outer slopes to the reef flat and then to the beach. This accretion occurred in a context of sea level rise: sea level has risen by about 6 cm in the last twenty years and the island height is probably stable or very slowly subsiding. This island expansion during a period of rising sea level demonstrates that sea level rise is not the primary factor controlling the shoreline changes. This paper highlights the key role of non-climate factors in changes in island area, especially sediment availability and transport.”

Kench et al., 2015

“The geological stability and existence of low-lying atoll nations is threatened by sea-level rise and climate change. Funafuti Atoll, in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has experienced some of the highest rates of sea-level rise (∼5.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr), totaling ∼0.30 ± 0.04 m over the past 60 yr. We analyzed six time slices of shoreline position over the past 118 yr at 29 islands of Funafuti Atoll to determine their physical response to recent sea-level rise. Despite the magnitude of this rise, no islands have been lost, the majority have enlarged, and there has been a 7.3% increase in net island area over the past century (A.D. 1897–2013).”

This is not just a local phenomenon, either.   Instead of shrinking coasts and submerged shorelines due to global sea level rise and polar ice melt, scientists have found that the land area above sea level has been growing across the world since the 1980s (Donchyts et al., 2016) . . . during the same period of time that anthropogenic CO2 emissions were rising.

BBC press release

“We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world,” said Dr Baart.  “We’re were able to create more land than sea level rise was taking.”

Modern Sea Level Change Rates Almost Undetectable Relative To Past 

Since 1958, sea levels have only been rising at a rate of between 1.3 and 1.5 millimeters per year, a rate of about 5 to 6 inches per century (Frederiske et al.,2018).

Meltwater from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets combined has contributed just 0.59 of an inch to global sea levels during this period (Frederiske et al.,2018).

Between 16,500 years ago and 8,200 years ago, by comparison, the average rate of global sea level rise was 1.2 meters per century (12 mm/yr), which is more than 800% faster than the rate achieved since 1958.   Included in that rate average is the “meltwater pulse” epoch around 14,500 years ago, when sea levels rose at rates of 4 meters per century (40 mm/yr).

Cronin et al., 2017

“Rates and patterns of global sea level rise (SLR) following the last glacial maximum (LGM) are known from radiometric ages on coral reefs from Barbados, Tahiti, New Guinea, and the Indian Ocean, as well as sediment records from the Sunda Shelf and elsewhere. … Lambeck et al. (2014) estimate mean global rates during the main deglaciation phase of 16.5 to 8.2 kiloannum (ka) [16,500 to 8,200 years ago] at 12 mm yr−1 [+1.2 meters per century] with more rapid SLR [sea level rise] rates (∼ 40 mm yr−1) [+4 meters per century] during meltwater pulse 1A ∼ 14.5–14.0 ka [14,500 to 14,000 years ago].”

Donoghue (2011) provides a visualization of the insignificance of modern changes relative to the past.

Donoghue, 2011

“For much of the period since the last glacial maximum (LGM), 20,000 years ago, the region has seen rates of sea level rise far in excess of those experienced during the period represented by long-term tide gauges. The regional tide gauge record reveals that sea level has been rising at about 2 mm/year for the past century, while the average rate of rise since the LGM has been 6 mm/year, with some periods of abrupt rise exceeding 40 mm/year [4 meters per century].”
Sea level has at times risen at rates more than 20 times that of today, more than 40 mm/year. At such rates, the regional shorelines would have retreated by as much as 40 m/year, or more than 75 cm/week.”

Scientists affirm that an anthropogenic fingerprint in sea level rise trends are currently still “too small to be observable”.

Palanisamy et al., 2015

“[B]y making use of 21 CMIP5 coupled climate models, we study the contribution of external forcing to the Pacific Ocean regional sea level variability over 1993–2013, and show that according to climate models, externally forced and thereby the anthropogenic sea level fingerprint on regional sea level trends in the tropical Pacific is still too small to be observable by satellite altimetry.”
“Furthermore, regressed CMIP5 MME-based sea level spatial trend pattern in the tropical Pacific over the altimetry period do not display any positive sea level trend values that are comparable to the altimetry based sea level signal after having removed the contribution of the decadal natural climate mode. This suggests that the residual positive trend pattern observed in the western tropical Pacific is not externally forced and thereby not anthropogenic in origin.”

New Paper: Meter-Scale Sea Level Rise Only Related To Large-Scale Geologic Events

In a new paper published in the journal Geoscience Frontiers, Dr. Khan concludes that “both regional and local sea-level rise and fall in meter-scale is related to the geologic events only and not related to global warming and/or polar ice melt.”

Obviously this leaves no room for global warming and polar ice melt to contribute to the alarming sea level rise predicted to materialize by the end of the century.  Modeled predictions of 1 to 2 meters of sea level rise by 2100 are deemed “highly erroneous.”

Hence, suggestions of an anthropogenic influence on sea level change — the scariest aspect of climate modeling predictions — may be significantly undermined by scientific observation.


Why would sea-level rise for global

warming and polar ice-melt?

Khan, 2018

Summary

•”Geophysical shape of the earth is the fundamental component of the global sea level distribution. Global warming and ice-melt, although a reality, would not contribute to sea-level rise. Gravitational attraction of the earth plays a dominant role against sea level rise.”
•”As a result of low gravity attraction in the region of equatorial bulge and high gravity attraction in the region of polar flattening, melt-water would not move from polar region to equatorial region. Further, melt-water of the floating ice-sheets will reoccupy same volume of the displaced water by floating ice-sheets causing no sea-level rise. Arctic Ocean in the north is surrounded by the land mass thus can restrict the movement of the floating ice, while Antarctic in the south is surrounded by open ocean thus floating ice can freely move to the north. Melting of huge volume of floating sea-ice around Antarctica not only can reoccupy volume of the displaced water but also can cool ocean-water in the region of equatorial bulge thus can prevent thermal expansion of the ocean water.”
•”Melting of land ice in both the polar region can substantially reduce load on the crust allowing crust to rebound elastically for isostatic balancing through uplift causing sea level to drop relatively. Palaeo-sea level rise and fall in macro-scale are related to marine transgression and regression in addition to other geologic events like converging and diverging plate tectonics, orogenic uplift of the collision margin, basin subsidence of the extensional crust, volcanic activities in the oceanic region, prograding delta buildup, ocean floor height change and sub-marine mass avalanche.”
•”Claim and prediction of 3 mm/yr rise of sea-level due to global warming and polar ice-melt is definitely a conjecture.”
•”Prediction of 4–6.6 ft sea level rise in the next 91 years between 2009 and 2100 is highly erroneous.”

Thermal Expansion Claimed Or Opined To Be Dominant Contributor To Sea Level Rise

•”It is also claimed that ocean thermal expansion and glacier melting have been the dominant contributors to 20th century global mean sea level rise. It is further opined that global warming is the main contributor to the rise in global sea level since the Industrial Revolution (Church and White, 2006).”
•”According to Cazenave and Llovel (2010) rising of air temperature can warm and expand ocean waters wherein thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 to 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution. However, the share of thermal expansion in global sea level rise has declined in recent decades as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated (Lombard et al 2005). Lombard et al. (2006) opined that recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/yr) of the 1.8 mm/yr observed sea level rise of the past few decades. However, observation claim of 1.8 mm/yr sea level rise is also limited in scope and accuracy.”

Are Thermal Expansion–>Sea Level Change Models Accurate?

•”Lombard et al. (2006) opined that recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/yr) of the 1.8 mm/yr observed sea level rise of the past few decades. However, observation claim of 1.8 mm/yr sea level rise is also limited in scope and accuracy.”
•”According to Domingues et al. (2008) sea level rose about 0.8 mm/yr for the period 1993–2003. On the other hand, the climate threat investigation using a combination of atmosphere–ocean modeling, information from paleoclimate data, and observations of ongoing climate change revealed that modeling is an imperfect representation of the climate system, paleo-data consist mainly of proxy climate information usually with substantial ambiguities, and modern observations are limited in scope and accuracy (Hansen et al., 2016).”
•”According to Zhang (2007) thermal expansion in the lower latitude is unlikely because of the reduced salt rejection and upper-ocean density and the enhanced thermohaline stratification tend to suppress convective overturning, leading to a decrease in the upward ocean heat transport and the ocean heat flux available to melt sea ice. The ice melting from ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass.”

Sea Level Changes Linked To Large-Scale Geological Events

•”There are good number of publications about the post glacial isostatic rebound of the polar region. Works of Fleming et al. (1998) and Milne et al. (2005) are based on the vertical geologic motions associated with the post-glacial continental and isostatic rebound. Johansson et al. (2002) conducted research on a project BIFROST (Baseline Inferences for Fennoscandian Rebound Observations, Sea-level, and Tectonics) that combines networks of continuously operating GPS receivers in Sweden and Finland to measure ongoing crustal deformation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). They have found the maximum observed uplift rate 10 mm/yr for Fennoscandian region analyzing data between August 1993 and May 2000. Sella et al. (2007) and Lidberg et al. (2010) suggested that postglacial rebound continues today albeit very slowly wherein the land beneath the former ice sheets around Hudson Bay and central Scandinavia, is still rising by over a centimeter a year, while those regions which had bulged upwards around the ice sheet are subsiding such as the Baltic states and much of the eastern seaboard of North America.”
•”Snay et al. (2016) have found large residual vertical velocities [land uplift], some with values exceeding 30 mm/yr, in southeastern Alaska. The uplift occurring here is due to present-day melting of glaciers and ice fields formed during the Little Ice Age glacial advance that occurred between 1550 A.D. and 1850 A.D.”
•”Alaska is undergoing crustal deformation of uplift and subsidence each year within elastic-plastic phase associated with ice melt and ice cover formation. When ice melts, load from the crust is reduced and it is uplifted and when ice cover builds-up, load onto the crust is increased and it is subsided. Hence, pattern of the sea level curve of Alaska is oscillatory. Secondly, for each uplift and subsidence there remains a residual value between uplift and subsidence which is positive, hence, the corresponding sea level curve is negative.”
•”When the land area shrinks globally, this corresponds to a global rise in sea level. From the curve it is certain that sea level has changed in geologic time scale due to geologic events.”
•”Because global cycles of sea level changes are the records of geotectonic, glacial, and other large-scale processes, they reflect major events of Phanerozoic (Mesozoic to Present) history. These events are related mostly to the large-scale orogenic (mountain building) movement such as trans-Himalayan orogeny, sedimentary basins formation such as Bengal Basin and Gulf Coast Basins. The Phanerozoic history of North America from the Late Triassic or Early Jurassic, corresponds to the Pangea breakup phase, during which North America drifted westwards. The eastern continental margin became the modern extensional Atlantic margin basins, while the western margin underwent tectonism and accretionary prism formation leading to the assembly of the Cordilleran orogen. Similar extensional basins and sedimentary accretionary prism leading to orogens developed along the eastern margin of the Atlantic Ocean in Africa and Europe, and in some region of Asia. These mega events of the earth led to major sea-level rise and fall in terms of hundreds of meters as oceans suffered regional transgressions and regressions. Hence, when a region undergoes major subsidence can cause relative sea level (RSL) rise to the tune of tens of meters. Examples of mid-Holocene (about 8000 years ago) subsidence forming Ganges depression, Jamuna depression and Meghna depression in the Bengal Basin causing major marine transgression to signify sea level rise in terms of 10 s of meters (Khan et al., 2000).”

Visual Evidence Of Uplift/Subsidence Determining Sea Level Rise/Fall 

•”Geological processes are responsible of two types of major movements of the crustal block viz., uplift and subsidence. Hence, the relation of sea level and crustal motion is attributed to sea level drops when there is an uplift while it rises when there is subsidence.”
•”Examples of uplift and subsidence of the crustal segments are given in the Fig. 13A–H. Layered beach at Bathurst Inlet, Nunavut is an example of post-glacial rebound after the last Ice Age. Isostatic rebound is still underway here (Fig. 13A). Some of the most dramatic uplift is found in Iceland. Much of modern Finland is former seabed or archipelago that shows sea level immediately after the last ice age (Fig. 13B). Massive coral (Pavona clavus) exposed in 1954 by tectonic uplift in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador (Fig. 13C). Beach ridges on the coast of Novaya Zemlya in arctic Russia. Such ridges are formed by pushing of sea ice as a result of Holocene glacio-isostatic rebound (Fig. 13D). A beach in Juneau, Alaska where sea level is not rising, but dropping precipitously due to a phenomenon known as glacial isostatic adjustment GIA (Fig. 13E). Boat-houses in Scandinavia now considerably farther away from the water’s edge where they were built demonstrates land uplift (Fig. 13F). An 8000-year old-well off the coast of Israel now submerged is a land mark of crustal subsidence (Fig. 13G). The “City beneath the Sea”; Port Alexandria on the Nile delta fits with the drowned well off the coast of Israe (Fig. 13G), both subsided due to subduction-pull of the downgoing African crustal slab as it enters the Hellenic trench (Fig. 13H). Venice is vanishing because of tectonics (subduction rollback of Adriatic slab) wherein down-going crustal segment causing subsidence of Venice, rather than sea level rise associated with global warming and/or polar ice melt.”

Meter-Scale Sea Level Changes Only Related To Geologic Events, Not Global Warming

•”Transgression commences when continental block undergoes subsidence with respect to continental shelf and abyssal plain, while regression occurs when this process is reverse i.e., when continental block is uplifted with respect to continental shelf and abyssal plain. Prograding delta system in low lying areas and other geologic events may cause local/relative sea-level fall as new sedimentary deposition advances as accretion pushing sea further down the coast irrespective of global warming and polar ice-melt.”
•”Hence, both regional and local sea-level rise and fall in meter-scale is related to the geologic events only and not related to global warming and/or polar ice melt.”
•”Information on relative sea-level rise over the past ∼8000 years obtained from a variety of geological indicators exhibit vertical land movement at tide-gauges resulting from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) theory. Although if it is generally thought that paleo sea level change of 10s to 100s m or future prediction of sea level rise more than 1 m in 100 years are due to the continuous process of the Earth, it is rather an abrupt or sudden geological process of fault rupture to result in crustal uplift and subsidence causing a visible sea level change. So a visible measure of the sea level change is possible only after sudden fault rupture displacement between continent and ocean/sea. Although a continuous deformation process prior to the uplift and subsidence could progress, a visible deformation of the crust would occur only due to sudden rupture (fault) of the crust.”
•”In conclusion, global warming, both polar and terrestrial ice melts, and climate change might be a reality but all these phenomena are not related to sea level rise and fall.”

Alarmism Takes A Big Hit…Flood Of New Scientific Findings Show Nothing Unusual Happening Climatically

Two days ago Kenneth presented an impressive flurry of scientific, peer-reviewed charts published over the past 15 months (46 alone in 2018). Much to the surprise of alarmist scientists, global warming is weak at best.

Lack of warming a global phenomenon

According to Kenneth, these new papers show that “nothing climatically unusual is happening”. For example a publication by Polovodova Asteman et al shows that continental Europe’s temperatures are lower today than they were on other occasions over the past 2000 years:

Source: Polovodova Asteman et al

Today’s warming doesn’t stand out

The authors write that the contemporary warming of the 20th century “does not stand out in the 2500-year perspective” and is “of the same magnitude as the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly.”

A number of strident global warming scientists prefer to dismiss the significance of Europe’s temperature record, claiming that it is local in nature and does not tell us what is really happening globally. However, other papers fully contradict this. For example, a paper by Wündsch et al., 2018 shows us that the warming today in South Africa also is nothing unusual.

It’s global, stupid

Temperature reconstructions show the same is true in Southeast Australia, according to  McGowan et al., 2018, Northern Alaska (Hanna et al., 2018), the Tibetan Plateau (Li et al., 2018), South Korea (Song et al., 2018), Antarctica (Mikis, 2018), to cite just a few among dozens of others.

“Warming holes” surprise scientists

Meanwhile new findings by Partridge et al., 2018 show in fact that other regions have cooled. The eastern US “annual maximum and minimum temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively.”

The surprising winter cooling has led scientists to dub the eastern US a “warming hole”, where scientists blame oceanic cycles for the unexpected cooling.

Greenland within normal, cooler than 1930s

Greenland often gets cited by alarmists as a climate canary in a coal mine due to its massive ice sheets and their potential to cause dramatic sea level rise should they melt. But a brand new study by Mikkelsen et al., 2018 shows that surface temperatures going back over 150 years are lower than they were in the 1930s!

Source: Mikkelsen et al., 2018, Figure 2. Surface temperature anomalies obtained from (KNMI), “Twentieth Century Reanalysis V2c” from the years 1851 to 2011 in a box spanning 68N to 80N and 25W to 60W.

Looking at the above Greenland surface temperature chart, we see that the mercury plummeted some 5°C from 1930s to the 1980s before thankfully rebounding in the 1990s and 2000s. Here as well there exist no signs for warming alarm.

Greenland cooling again since 2000

Furthermore, much to the surprise of global warming scientists, Greenland temperatures have again been falling since 2000. Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2018 examined the most recent and detailed trends based on MODIS (2001–2015) and concluded that if there is any general trend for Greenland it is “mostly cooling”.

South Pole cooling, getting icier

At the other end of the planet at the South Pole, new findings by Cerrone and Fusco, 2018 confirm the large increase in the southern hemisphere sea ice and suggest it “arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends”.

They write that the results indicate a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s and that the SIC [sea ice concentration] shows upward annual, spring, and summer trends.

Uncertainty Mounts…Global Temperature Data Presentation “Flat Wrong”, New Danish Findings Show

Brand new scientific findings in a just published paper by Lansner and Pepke Pedersen appearing in the journal of Energy and Environment cast global warming science into more uncertainty.

The findings tell us that ocean cycles and their impacts have not been adequately accounted for in computing global temperatures.

BEST approach “flat wrong”

The paper would mean that the entire approach of, for example, BEST and others to present global temperature data is “flat wrong”, claims coauthor Frank Lansner.

These approaches use one temperature trend for each area that they call “expected regional trend” and then they adjust all data to resemble this trend. But Lansner points out this is inadequate and that TWO trends need to be accepted instead – depending on the topography: one for stations exposed to ocean air affects (OAA), and one for stations sheltered from oceanic air affects (OAS). “In fact between the two extremes of temperature trends we have a grey zone of temperature trends that also are fully valid,” Lansner wrote in an e-mail response to an inquiry from NoTricksZone.

“Moreover, any dataset used to evaluate climate related changes in the heat balance over the earth should strive to use only OAS temperature data trends,” Lansner wrote. “It’s necessary to reduce noise from ocean temperature trends as much as possible if we want to read the signal from changing heat balances over the Earth. Go to the valleys and read the thermometers if you want to learn about the actual changes in the heat balance over the Earth.”

Ultimately this gets right to the heart of the whole CO2 vs natural factors debate.

The paper’s abstract:

Temperature data 1900–2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analyzed and it has been found that all land areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley stations that are sheltered from dominant oceans winds.

Thus, we found that in any area with variation in the topography, we can divide the stations into the more warm trended ocean air-affected OAA] stations, and the more cold-trended ocean air-sheltered [OAS] stations. We find that the distinction between ocean air-affected and ocean air-sheltered stations can be used to identify the influence of the oceans on land surface. We can then use this knowledge as a tool to better study climate variability on the land surface without the moderating effects of the ocean.

We find a lack of warming in the ocean air sheltered temperature data – with less impact of ocean temperature trends – after 1950. The lack of warming in the ocean air sheltered temperature trends after 1950 should be considered when evaluating the climatic effects of changes in the Earth’s atmospheric trace amounts of greenhouse gasses as well as variations in solar conditions.

Figure 19 of the paper:

Figure 19. Ocean air sheltered (OAS) and ocean air affected (OAA) temperatures, all regions.

This all means that when the ocean effects are minimized as well as possible, the heat trend from worldwide temperature station data diminishes.

Lansner wrote: “CO2 theory apparently does not work in valleys. Rather, we need ocean-trends to affect temperature data to see alarming temperature rise after 1950. Areas without ocean noise in data show that the heat balance over the Earth today resembles 1930-50.”

Lansner informed NoTricksZone by e-mail: “This goes right in the heart of the whole Sun vs. CO2 debate.” He added:

The little ice-age centuries led to a very cold ocean around 1900-1920 and so ocean and ocean-affected stations were not able to show the warming around 1920-30 so well. The ocean kept the warming hidden to some degree. Ocean temperature rise was somewhat delayed for decades it appears. That’s why ocean temperatures do not well reflect the heat balance over the Earth 1920-50 – unlike OAS areas valleys that reflected the change in heat balance rapidly. Thus it appears OAS data are the data best suited for evaluating the heat balance over the Earth.”

This spells more potential trouble for the suspicion that CO2 has been the main driver of the global temperature over the past century.

==============================

Frank Lansner, civil engineer from the Danish Technical University, 1998. Main areas are Microbiology and Biochemistry and has worked as a software developer since 1998.

Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen has a PhD in physics from the University of Aarhus, Denmark. He worked at the Danish Center for Earth System Science from 1998-2003 and since 2003 has worked at the Danish National Space Institute. His main focus is climate change and Earth System modelling of both past and future climate.

200 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Published Since 2017 Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented, Global-Scale Warming

46 New (2018) Non-Warming Graphs Affirm

Nothing Climatically Unusual Is Happening

Image Source: Lansner and Pepke Pederson, 2018

During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.

We are less than 3 months into the new publication year.  Already 46 new graphs from 40+ scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming — or, in some regions, modern cooling — is climatically unusual.

2018 and 2017 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs (~200)



Maley et al., 2018


Polovodova Asteman et al., 2018

“The record demonstrates a warming during the Roman Warm Period (~350 BCE – 450 CE), variable bottom water temperatures during the Dark Ages (~450 – 850 CE), positive bottom water temperature anomalies during the Viking Age/Medieval Climate Anomaly (~850 – 1350 CE) and a long-term cooling with distinct multidecadal variability during the Little Ice Age (~1350 – 1850 CE). The fjord BWT [bottom water temperatures] record also picks up the contemporary warming of the 20th century, which does not stand out in the 2500-year perspective and is of the same magnitude as the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly.”


Wündsch et al., 2018


McGowan et al., 2018

Our reconstructed Tmax [temperature maximum] for these warmer conditions peaks around 1390 CE at + 0.8 °C above the 1961–90 mean, similar to the peak Tmax during the RWP [Roman Warm Period]. These results are aligned with the findings that show the period from 1150 to 1350 CE to be the warmest pre-industrial chronzone of the past 1000 yrs for southeast Australia.”


Wu et al., 2018


Hanna et al., 2018

“Reconstructed temperatures are generally coolest between 300 and 800 CE (Tavg = 2.24 ± 0.98°C), displaying three temperature minima centered at 410 CE (1.34 ± 0.72°C), 545 CE (1.91 ± 0.69°C), and 705 CE (1.49 ± 0.69°C). Temperatures then rapidly increased, reaching the warmest interval (800–1000 CE) in the approximately 1700-year record. During this interval, average temperatures were 3.31 ± 0.65°C, with a maximum temperature of 3.98°C.”


Li et al., 2018

“There are also other studies that suggest that the recent climate warming over the southeastern TP actually began in the 1820s (Shi et al., 2015). However, a few reconstructions from the west and northwest parts of Sichuan or from the southeastern TP indicate that there were no obvious increase of temperature during the past decades (Li et al., 2015b; Zhu et al., 2016).”

 


Qin et al., 2018     

“Three quasi-oscillations with cycles of 31–22, 22–18, and 12–8 years may reflect the joint influence of PDO, southern oscillation, and solar activity on climate variation in the Qinling Mountains. … [T]he third cycle of 12–8 years exhibited 18 distinct cold-hot events, which were approximately equivalent to the changes of solar activity and sunspot activity and corresponded to the 11-year cycle of drought in northwestern China (Cai and Liu. 2007).”


Allen et al., 2018

“The longest sustained period of relatively high temperatures in the reconstructions is the post 1950 CE period although there are clearly individual years much earlier that were warmer than any in the post-1950 period.”



Oppedal et al., 2018

“This advance was documented by historical evidence (Hayward, 1983), showing that many glaciers advanced in the twentieth century. Cirque and valley glaciers were at its most advanced position in the 1930s, while larger valley and tidewater glaciers reached their maximum glacier extent in the 1970s. Such a glacier advance is also documented for the Hamberg glacier by Van Der Bilt et al. (2017). Furthermore, during the recession phase after the twentieth century advance, many cirque glaciers deposited annual moraines (Gordon and Timmis, 1992), such as the ones observed in the innermost moraine cluster. Thus, Diamond glacier followed a similar pattern to that observed for small glaciers (0.1–4.0 km2) on South Georgia during the late Holocene, with a Little Ice Age advance, a period of recession, a twentieth century advance and a recent recession (Gordon and Timmis, 1992).”


Blundell et al., 2018     

“Energy carried by warm tropical water, transported via the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), plays a vital role in regulating the climate of regions bordering the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous phases of elevated freshwater input to areas of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production in the early to mid-Holocene have been linked with slow-downs in the AMOC and changes in regional climate.”


Badino et al., 2018     

“Between ca. 8.4-4 ka cal BP [8,400 to 4,000 years before present], our site [Italian Alps] experienced a mean TJuly of ca. 12.4 °C, i.e. 3.1 °C warmer than today [9.3 °C]. … Between 7400 and 3600 yrs cal BP, an higher-than-today forest line position persisted under favorable growing conditions (i.e. TJuly at ca. 12 °C).”


Levy et al., 2018

“The three historical moraine crests indicate that there were at least three ice-margin stillstands or advances during historical time. Summer temperature records from North lake (Axford et al. 2013) and Lake N3 (Thomas et al. 2016) broadly register cooling in the past 200 years in western Greenland, which likely influenced the advance to the historical moraines.”


Song et al., 2018

“[A] general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present.”


Blarquez et al., 2018


Perner et al., 2018

“[W]e find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability. … Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the ‘2800 years BP cooling event’, the ‘Dark Ages’ and the ‘Little Ice Age’, whereas the ‘Roman Warm Period’ and the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state.”


 Magyari et al., 2018

“…its climatic tolerance limits were used to infer July mean temperatures exceeding modern values by 2.8°C at this time [8200-6700 cal yr BP] (Magyari et al., 2012).”


Mikis, 2018


Papadomanolaki et al., 2018  (Baltic Sea)

“A large fraction of the Baltic Proper became hypoxic again between 1.4 and 0.7 ka BP, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), when mean air temperatures were 0.9–1.4 °C higher than temperatures recorded in the period 1961–1990 (e.g. Mann et al., 2009; Jilbert and Slomp, 2013).”

Leonard et al., 2018  (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)

“Coral derived sea surface temperature (SST-Sr/Ca) reconstructions demonstrate conditions ∼1 ◦C warmer than present at ∼6200 (recalibrated 14C) and 4700 yr BP, with a suggested increase in salinity range (δ18O) associated with amplified seasonal flood events, suggestive of La Niña (Gagan et al., 1998; Roche et al., 2014).”

Suvorov and Kitov, 2018 (Eastern Sayan, Siberia)

“The authors examined the variability of activity of modern glaciation and variation of natural conditions of the periglacial zone on climate and on dendrochronological data. Results of larch and Siberian stone pine growth data were revealed at the higher border of forest communities. …  It is believed that the temperature could be 3.5 °C warmer at the Holocene optimum than at the present time (Vaganov and Shiyatov 2005). … Since 2000, there has been growth of trees instability associated with a decrease in average monthly summer temperatures. …  Since the beginning of 2000, decrease in summer temperatures was marked.”

20th/21st Centuries Non-Warming


Lansner and Pepke Pederson, 2018

“We found that in any land area with variation in the topography, for the period 1900-2010 we can divide the meteorological stations into the more warm-trended ocean air-affected OAA-stations, and the more cold-trended ocean air-sheltered OAS-stations. The methods used in this work are meant to give a rough picture of the large differences in temperature trends between OAS and OAA stations. … When we isolated temperature trends 1900–2010 with as little ocean influence as possible – the OAS areas – we found a warm period 1920–1950 with temperatures similar to recent decades for all investigated areas worldwide. We have not found any area with numerous OAS/Valley stations available where the majority of temperature stations show a different result. In contrast, the OAA locations like islands, coasts, hills facing dominating ocean winds, etc., did not reflect the warm period 1920–1950 well. … Therefore, the lack of warming in the OAS temperature trends after 1950 should be considered when evaluating the climatic effects of changes in the Earth’s atmospheric trace amounts of greenhouse gasses as well as variations in solar conditions.”
“The global averages for all 10 OAS (blue curve) and OAA (red curve) shown together in Figure 19 to allow comparison. The most significant difference between global OAS and OAA temperature data is found during the period 1920–1950, where the OAS temperatures are generally 0.5–1 K warmer than OAA temperatures. … We recognize the remarkable temperature increase in temperature in the years after the 1918/1919 strong El Nino. After this warming, the OAS temperature data appear to have jumped by around 0.5 K to a new level, indicative of a shift to a new climatic regime. The OAA data fail to show this abrupt change. … The resemblance in temperature trends between global unadjusted OAA temperature data and the MAT data supports that the large-scale use of non-adjusted original data is justified for this type of analysis. … In locations best sheltered and protected against ocean air influence, the vast majority of thermometers worldwide trends show temperatures in recent decades rather similar to the 1920–1950 period. This indicates that the present-day atmosphere and heat balance over the Earth cannot warm areas – typically valleys – worldwide in good shelter from ocean trends notably more than the atmosphere could in the 1920–1950 period.”


Partridge et al., 2018

“We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively. … [T]he seasonal modes also vary in causation. Winter temperatures in the warming hole are significantly correlated with the Meridional Circulation Index (MCI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). … We select only stations in the contiguous U.S. that have an 80% complete record from 1901-2015, resulting in 1407 temperature stations.”


Payomrat et al., 2018

“During the third segment (1870–2001), the maximum temperature pattern seemed to be constant compared to the changing rate (+0.004 °C/decade). … The short fourth segment, which occurred from 2002 to 2013, showed a deceasing trend at a rate of -0.12 °C/decade.”


Mikkelsen et al., 2018


Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2018

“Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, validated against observations, across the entire ice-free Greenland. … Warming trends observed from 1986–2016 across the ice-free Greenland is mainly related to warming in the 1990’s. The most recent and detailed trends based on MODIS (2001–2015) shows contrasting trends across Greenland, and if any general trend it is mostly a cooling. The MODIS dataset provides a unique detailed picture of spatiotemporally distributed changes during the last 15 years. … Figure 3 shows that on an annual basis, less than 36% of the ice-free Greenland has experienced a significant trend and, if any, a cooling is observed during the last 15 years (<0.15 °C change per year).”


Smeed et al., 2018


Ahn et al., 2018


Eck, 2018     

“[A] majority (12/14) of the regions within the SAM [Southern Appalachian Mountains] have experienced a long-term decline in mean winter temperatures since 1910.  Even after removing the highly anomalous 2009-2010 winter season, which was more than two standard deviations away from the long-term mean, the cooling of mean winter temperatures is still evident. … Higher winter temperatures dominated the early 20th century in the SAM [Southern Appalachian Mountains] with nine of the ten warmest winter seasons on record in the region having occurred before 1960The 1931-1932 winter season, the warmest on record, averaged 8.0°C for DJF [December-February], nearly 4.7°C higher than the 1987-2017 normal mean winter temperature of 3.3°C. … Despite the 2016-2017 winter season finishing with the highest mean temperatures (5.7ºC) observed in the SAM [Southern Appalachian Mountains]  since 1956-1957, there have been several years of anomalous negative temperature anomalies, with the 2009-2010 (0.3ºC) and 2010-2011 (1.2ºC) winter seasons finishing as two of the coldest on record for all regions.”


Yi, 2018


Nicolle et al., 2018     


Purich et al., 2018     

Observed Southern Ocean changes over recent decades include a surface freshening (Durack and Wijffels 2010; Durack et al. 2012; de Lavergne et al. 2014), surface cooling (Fan et al. 2014; Marshall et al. 2014; Armour et al. 2016; Purich et al. 2016a) and circumpolar increase in Antarctic sea ice (Cavalieri and Parkinson 2008; Comiso and Nishio 2008; Parkinson and Cavalieri 2012).  …  Our results suggest that recent multi-decadal trends in large-scale surface salinity over the Southern Ocean have played a role in the observed surface cooling seen in this region. … The majority of CMIP5 models do not simulate a surface cooling and increase in sea ice, as seen in observations.”


Palmer et al., 2018


Clem et al., 2018

This study finds recent (post-1979) surface cooling of East Antarctica during austral autumn to also be tied to tropical forcing, namely, an increase in La Niña events. … The South Atlantic anticyclone is associated with cold air advection, weakened northerlies, and increased sea ice concentrations across the western East Antarctic coast, which has increased the rate of cooling at Novolazarevskaya and Syowa stations after 1979. This enhanced cooling over western East Antarctica is tied more broadly to a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern across East Antarctica during autumn that is consistent with a tropically forced Rossby wave rather than a SAM pattern; the positive SAM pattern is associated with ubiquitous cooling across East Antarctica.”


Kim et al., 2018     

Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift … The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend.  … The most striking evolution pattern is that a robust warming trend at a rate of +0.40°C per decade reached a peak in the late 1990s, and then it turned downward at a rate of  −0.36°C per decade. The positive and then negative trends are estimated throughout the YECS for the periods 1982−1997.”


Shu et al., 2018

“The link between boreal winter cooling over the midlatitudes of Asia and the Barents Oscillation (BO) since the late 1980s is discussed in this study, based on five datasets. Results indicate that there is a large-scale boreal winter cooling during 1990–2015 over the Asian midlatitudes, and that it is a part of the decadal oscillations of long-term surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies.”


Mallory et al., 2018


Jones et al., 2018


Burger et al., 2018

“Previous studies have identified spatial and temporal trends in temperature and precipitation in Chile over recent decades. Temperature rose significantly during the mid to late 20th century in coastal locations between 18 to 33 °S (Rosenblüth et al., 1997), but then started to decrease, with a cooling trend up to -0.20ºC decade-1 dominating over the past 20-30 years (Falvey and Garreaud, 2009).”

 


Gennaretti et al., 2018

 


 Cerrone and Fusco, 2018

“Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends. The examination of variability ranging from seasonal to interdecadal scales, and of trends within the climate patterns and total Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) for the 32-yr period (1982–2013), is the key focus of this paper. The results herein indicate that a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s. This feature is found in association with increased positive SAM and SAO phases detected in terms of upward annual and seasonal trends (in autumn and summer) and upward decadal trends. In addition, the SIC [sea ice concentration] shows upward annual, spring, and summer trends, indicating the insulation of Antarctica from the warmer flows in the midlatitudes.”

U. Of Colorado Boulder Sea Level Alarmism Based On Sloppy And “Faulty” Science, Veteran German Scientists Say

German scientists Dr. Sebastian Lüning (geology) and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (chemistry) say recent sea level rise paper is “alarmist” and based on sloppy, “faulty” science.
===============================================

Sea level rise grossly overstated by sloppy science

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

In mid February a frightening report made the rounds through the mainstream media, and also the German evening news Tagesschau warned: Sea level is not rising linearly, but rather exponentially and thus we should expect a sea level rise of 65 cm by the end of the century! At linear sea level rise rate at today’s 3 mm/year, 25 cm would be only manageable.  So what’s behind the story?

The urgent report is traced back to a study led by Robert S. Nerem of the University of Colorado in Boulder. In it the authors should have adequately filtered out the ENSO sea level fluctuations. An El Nino results in much greater rainfall in the East Pacific, which leads to a temporary rise in global sea level. Vice versa, a La Nina results in much rain falling on land (especially Australia) where it is temporarily stored and so leads to less water in the ocean, and this is clearly detectable globally.

Fig. 6: Plot of the Nino3,4  index since 1980. Currently it is showing a moderate La Nina. Source here.

As it is clear to see in Figure 6, near the beginning of the satellite measurements in 1998 there was a surplus water amount. After 2010 there was a deficit of water and in 2017 too much. The authors of the study, however, did not adequately remove these natural fluctuations, as was later discovered shortly later.  As a result the recent El Nino got partially used in the calculation and impacted the trend result, as did the 2011/12 La Nina and the 1997/98 El Nino. This resulted in a growing trend and allowed Nerem et al (2018) to use a quadratic fit, which was then extrapolated out to the year 2100.

Such an approach resembles the error of a real beginner, which one calls over-fitting. The data basis of 1993 to 2017 is much too small, and also fraught with error and so does not allow a credible trend going out to 2100.

And because no data were included with the study, it was necessary to invest two or three hours to uncover the shortcoming. Perhaps the peer-reviewers could not be bothered to check it adequately and so allowed the scientific sloppiness to find its way into a journal. From there, the media turned it into headlines.

A total false alarm

The conclusion is clear: a faulty paper that bordered on alarmism ended up making its way into the German evening news.

Findings on the temperature trend-dampening factors such as the AMO and the PDO don’t even get mentioned in our science media. This is how politics gets done using science selection. We will see over the coming years exactly how things develop. Both major ocean indices are pointing negative and the solar activity is below normal, which are major counter-warming factors.

Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low

Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt look at the sun and oceans in their latest report here at Die kalte Sonne.

The sunspot number for February 2018 was 10.6 and thus was some 30% below the meanfor this time into the cycle. At the moment solar activity is close to quiet.

Solar cycle no. 24 (red) compared to the mean of the previous 23 solar cycles (blue) and to the very similar solar cycle no. 5 ( black).

As the following comparison chart shows for 111 months into the cycle, the current cycle is the weakest we’ve seen in close to 200 years, and has been only some 55% as active as the mean cycle so far:

Low solar activity linked to cool global temperatures

As the figure above shows, solar cycle activity progresses in decades-long waves comprising above normal activity and below normal activity.

Low activity periods are associated with cool global temperatures and high activity periods with warmer temperatures. Many scientists believe that the earth is now entering a period of cooler temperatures as the next solar cycles 25 and 26 will be weak should the overall pattern continue.

There are are hundreds of scientific papers showing a link between climate and solar activity worldwide. A number of papers show that dry and wet periods at different regions are closely related to solar cycle activity as well.

Arctic sea ice surprise – volume rebounds

Just 10 years ago, all the talk was about the Arctic sea ice “death spiral”, with some of scientists hysterically predicting the sea ice would soon disappear altogether in the summertime. Ten years later the scientists are now scratching their heads as sea ice has stabilized and is showing some clear signs of a rebound.

Japanese skeptic climate blogger Kirye at Twitter posted a message showing how March sea ice volume has made a remarkable comeback in terms of volume (which is what really counts) compared to 2018 – despite the very warm Arctic surface temperatures seen this past winter.

Arctic ice cap has grown significantly in volume. Chart source: DMI

Kirye tweets: “The real sea ice thickness is much higher than in 2008. We have not even once seen climate alarmists’ predictions come true, and it is unlikely to happen in the future.”

“Volume highest in several years”

Tony Heller (who blogs under the Steve Goddard name) also commented on the ice volume growth at Twitter here: “In fact, Arctic sea ice is growing very rapidly and volume is highest in several years.”

Arctic temperatures plummet

The following chart shows how Arctic surface temperatures above 80°N latitude have plummeted over the past two weeks after a mild winter:

Robust recovery in the Antarctic

Sea ice expansion in the Antarctic also has seen a robust recovery in terms of sea ice area, according the the latest chart by the University of Bremen.

Source: AWI/U. of Bremen

Sea surface temperature back to normal

Although global temperatures spiked from 2015 to 2017, the spike was due to the El Nino phenomenon. The following chart depicts the sea surface temperature anomalies from the mean:

Sea surface temperature anomalies from Reynolds (NOAA).

Sea surface temperatures have since fallen back to near normal levels and it remains to be seen if a new higher plateau will be established after the 1998 El Nino event. In summary, most of the globe is not behaving as climate scientists expected.

Since 2008, 0.24°C Of ‘Extra’ Warming Has Been Added To NASA’s 1910-2000 Global Temperatures

NASA’s Massive Adjustments:

1910-2000 Now 53%  Warmer

Image Source: climate4you.com

In the last 10 years, overseers of the NASA GISS global temperature data set have been busy utilizing cool-the-past-and-warm-the-present adjustment techniques to alter the slope of the overall warming trend.

For example, as the climate4you graph illustrates above, there was a +0.45°C difference between the 1910 temperature anomaly and the 2000 temperature anomaly as of May, 2008.

Today (March, 2018), NASA GISS has tendentiously adjusted up the difference between 1910 and 2000 to +0.69°C, a 53% increase.

The +0.5°C Warming Between 1880-1950 Has Been Erased 

Changes to past data consistently serve to cool down the past and warm up the present.

As recently as 1987, for example, NASA GISS reported a warming trend of +0.5°C between 1880 and 1950.

Pirazzoli, 1990

Schneider, S. H. 1989 Science 243: 771-81.

Today, the NASA GISS overseers have removed +0.5°C  from 1880 to 1950 trend and replaced it with a 70-year pause.    The 2018 NASA GISS graph depicts no change, a 0.0°C non-trend, between 1880 and 1950.

Image Source: NASA GISS

If NASA GISS temperature adjustments can maintain pace with the changes made in the last 10 years, perhaps a decade from now the temperature divergence between 1910 and 2000 will reach a monumental +1.0°C.

Or perhaps NASA GISS will discover there was a cooling trend of -0.3°C between 1880 to 1950 at some point in the next ten years.

We’ll just have to wait and see what temperature data changes NASA GISS will uncover for us next.

1975 Documentary “The Weather Machine”: Climate “Keeps Changing Gear”…”Ice Age Now Due Any Time”!

A documentary dubbed “The Weather Machine” produced in 1975 – long before NASA fiddled with the data – warned of an impending ice age (10:35), and maintained that the globe is cooling. Hat-tip: reader The Indomitable Snowman.

The documentary attempted and succeeded at presenting the latest on climate change at the time.

Changing climate accepted as normal

It is true that back in 1975 climatologists already knew that the climate behaved cyclically, as evidenced by the ice cores and tree ring sets extracted from the American Southwest.

Climate change back then was known to be a normal, natural phenomenon. Moreover, after 3 decades of temperature decline, scientists indeed were concerned that the globe was cooling at a worrisome rate.

Part 1: Weather Machine. Exiled Czech climate scientist Dr. George Kukla said in the 1970s: “The ice age is now due any time.”

Also, contrary to what was suggested by Michael Mann”s notorious hockey stick chart, the little Ice Age did in fact exist and was clearly evidenced by old historical records from ships, The Weather Machine documentary tells us.

And note that the documentary stated that the Jet Stream also changed its course naturally, just as it does today, and that there was much more to it than just Arctic sea ice extent, on which today some scientists are trying to blame for the frigid winter we are now witnessing.

In Part 2, viewers are told how the ocean cycles have a major impact on the weather cycles, something today that is ridiculously being blamed on trace gas CO2 from human activity.

Little Ice Age warnings…

At the 6 minute mark of Part 2 again we are warned of cooling and the potential of a little ice age, or worse.

Prof. George Denton, University of Maine at Orono, warned we could easily return to Little Ice Age conditions.

Humans may be causing cooling

Later into Part 2 Dr. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin claims that man’s activity may be contributing to the cooling through the “Human Volcano” spewing aerosols into the atmosphere that “blots out” the sun.

Germany’s War On Diesel Takes A Setback…Environment Ministry Activism Exposed, Absurd Risk Claims

What follows is one example why caution is absolutely essential when dealing with results and findings issued by (activist) government agencies.

Once popular diesel engines now public enemy no. 1

Nowhere in the world have the diesel engines enjoyed so much popularity as in Germany. Diesel engines had long been considered in Germany as being more environmentally friendly then the Otto type engines due to their much higher fuel mileage. Taxes on diesel fuel were and are today much lower.

But Germany has withdrawn its welcome mat for diesel engine. Like CO2, the government and environmental groups recently began waging full-scale war on diesel engines. The official reason for the crack down on diesel is the alleged high levels of dangerous emissions of nitrous oxides, and is what many suspect is mostly part of what is the overall war on the internal combustion engine and thus the effort to get people to switch to “clean” electric cars.

Ministry of Environment’s, media’s absurd claims

To underscore the risks of diesel fumes and to spread fear of diesel engines, Germany’s Ministry of Environment (UBA) recently released “new findings” claiming diesel engines are responsible for 6000 premature deaths every year. Unsurprisingly: the German press and activist groups went bananas uncritically reporting the findings in the most spectacular ways they could imagine.

For example: the Frankfurter Rundschau wrote:

Also diseases such as diabetes mellitus, high blood pressure, stroke and asthma are connected to irritant gas concentration. Eight percent of the diabetes mellitus illnesses in Germany in 2014 can be linked to nitrous oxide in the air outside: ‘That corresponds to some 437,000 cases,‘ said Myriam Tobollik, health researcher at the Ministry of Environment.”

“A political number” that “sounds like science”

Fortunately the hysteria and gross exaggerations did not escape the attention of the German press consumers, who have recently seen the value of their diesel engine vehicles plummet, and the few, still responsible journalists out there. It turns out the UBA report was based on exceptionally terrible science and the claims bordering on the absurd.

For example, Spiegel’s Jan Fleischhauer wrote here:

The made-up dead

Every year 6000 premature deaths from nitrous oxide – that’s how the Environment Ministry panicked the German citizenry. What sounds like science in truth is  a political number from a completely politicized government administration.”

In the Spiegel article Fleischhauer asks why aren’t other devices not targets: “A gas cooking stove during reaches peak values of 4000 micrograms per cubic meter. Where’s the campaign against the gas stove?”

It is a fact that many workplaces see routinely far higher nitrous oxide concentrations than what is measured near streets.

Measurement station folly (again), fake crisis

Fleischhauer also reminds readers that the EU directives specify that limit values for exhaust concentrations be measured at a distance of 25 meters from a busy intersection. After having looked through the UBA report, the Spiegel journalist adds:

Now I read the the measurement instruments in Germany are placed directly next to the roadway. I have not verified that. But if it’s true, then it should not be a surprise we find ourselves in a state of a diesel alarm.”

Diesel study “botched”

That the 6000 deaths a year figure was a fraud came to the attention of German mass daily Bild from its own readers. Bild was compelled on March 11 to publish the following headline:

Bild daily headline: “Reader anger over the botched diesel study”

The European Institute for Environment and Climate (EIKE) here commented that the German Environment Ministry “irrevocably ruined the reputation of the 1500-employee large agency behemoth”.

“Politicians lying, playing games”

One Bild reader, Wolfgang Bügener of Oberhausen, wrote: “It is peculiar how our politicians are playing games with and lying to us.”

Another added: “The real scam not only happened in Wolfsburg [VW headquarters] but also at the environmental organizations and Ministries, who throw around false and unproven claims.”

“Fails The Test Of Science”: Another Rahmstorf/Mann Horror Climate Scenario Gets Assigned To The Dustbin

PIK alarm story fails the test of science: Jet Stream will also meander as usual in the future

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated by P Gosselin)

Almost one year ago the Potsdam PIK Institute put out a press release, which warned of stalling Jet Stream waves. Due to man-made climate warming weather extremes would remain stuck in a position longer. Among the messengers of the alarm were Stefan Rahmstorf and hockey stich fabricator Michael E. Mann.

Next on February 20, 2018 the horror scenario suffered a setback at the University of Missouri. Using model simulations it was determined that the Jet Stream would also meander in the future as well. Climate alarm shut off once more. This is not the first time that Rahmstorf’s extreme claims have been dispelled in short order by his colleagues. See here, here, here, here, and here.

The University of Missouri press release follows:

Weather should remain predictable despite climate change
Simulations of jet stream behavior in a warming climate suggest ranges of forecasts in the mid-century will be similar to those in present day.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures are expected to rise between 2.5 and 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. This warming is expected to contribute to rising sea levels and the melting of glaciers and permafrost, as well as other climate-related effects. Now, research from the University of Missouri suggests that even as rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere drive the climate toward warmer temperatures, the weather will remain predictable.

“The jet stream changes character every 10 to 12 days, and we use this pattern to predict the weather,” said Anthony Lupo, professor of atmospheric science in MU’s School of Natural Resources, which is located in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. “We were curious about how this would change in a world with higher carbon dioxide levels. We found that in that warmer world, the variability of the jet stream remained the same.”

Lupo and Andrew Jensen, who earned his doctorate at MU, used an existing climate model to simulate jet stream flow in the Northern Hemisphere. The simulation monitored a variable that responds to jet stream flow changes and can indicate global-scale weather instability. Researchers used this variable to determine when the jet stream altered its flow. Since meteorologists can only accurately predict weather within the 10 to 12 days between jet stream flow changes, a shift in this time frame would directly impact weather predictability.

Over the course of a simulated 31 years, their observations indicated the jet stream would change its character about 30 to 35 times per year, a number that is consistent with current jet stream patterns. As the time frame used to predict weather did not change, the researchers concluded that weather would likely remain as predictable in a warmer world as it is today. The results do not address the effects of climate change on the nature or frequency of weather events but instead focus on the range of predictability afforded by the jet stream. In addition, the researchers did not extend the simulation past the mid-century to ensure their data was as accurate as possible. “Climate change will continue to create a lot of ripple effects, but this experiment provides evidence that the range of forecasting will remain the same,” Lupo said.

The study, “The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection,” was published in Atmosphere. Other researchers involved in the study were Mirseid Akperov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Igor Mokhov of Lomonosov Moscow State University and Fengpeng Sun of the University of Missouri-Kansas City.”

6 New Papers Unsheathe A Hushed-Up ‘Green’ Reality: Habitats Are Being Destroyed By Wind Turbines

More Wind Turbines,

More Habitat Harm, Loss

Scientists (Krekel and Zerrahn, 2017 ) report that the installation of wind turbines near human populations “exerts significant negative external effects on residential well-being” and a “significant negative and sizable effect on life satisfaction” due to “unpleasant noise emissions” and “negative impacts on landscape aesthetics”.

We show that the construction of wind turbines close to households exerts significant negative external effects on residential well-being … In fact, beyond unpleasant noise emissions (Bakker et al., 2012; McCunney et al., 2014) and impacts on wildlife (Pearce-Higgins et al., 2012; Schuster et al., 2015), most importantly, wind turbines have been found to have negative impacts on landscape aesthetics (Devine-Wright, 2005; Jobert et al., 2007; Wolsink, 2007). … We show that the construction of a wind turbine within a radius of 4,000 metres has a significant negative and sizeable effect on life satisfaction. For larger radii, no negative externalities can be detected.”

If human well-being and life satisfaction is seriously compromised by the nearby presence of a wind turbine, imagine the physiological effects on birds, bats, and land-dwelling mammals in general.

Six new papers expose the systematic destruction of natural wildlife habitats via the installation of wind turbines.

1. A 20-Fold Loss Of Bat Habitat At Wind Turbine Sites … A ‘Worldwide Phenomenon’

Millon et al., 2018

Wind turbines impact bat activity, leading to high losses of habitat use … Island bats represent 60% of bat species worldwide and the highest proportion of terrestrial mammals on isolated islands, including numerous endemic and threatened species (Fleming and Racey, 2009). … We present one of the first studies to quantify the indirect impact of wind farms on insectivorous bats in tropical hotspots of biodiversity. Bat activity [New Caledonia, Pacific Islands, which hosts nine species of bat] was compared between wind farm sites and control sites, via ultrasound recordings at stationary points [A bat pass is defined as a single or several echolocation calls during a five second interval.] The activity of bent winged bats (Miniopterus sp.) and wattled bats (Chalinolobus sp.) were both significantly lower at wind turbine sites. The result of the study demonstrates a large effect on bat habitat use at wind turbines sites compared to control sites. Bat activity was 20 times higher at control sites compared to wind turbine sites, which suggests that habitat loss is an important impact to consider in wind farm planning. …  Here, we provide evidence showing that two genera of insectivorous bat species are also threatened by wind farms.  … To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies quantifying the indirect negative impact of wind turbines on bat activity in the tropics. … The lower attractiveness of the foraging habitat under wind turbines, both in a tropical and in a temperate climate, indicates that the indirect impact of wind turbine is a worldwide phenomenon.”

2. A ‘Distinct Physiological Response’ (Stress) Caused by Wind Turbines’ ‘Disturbance Factors’

Lopucki et al., 2018

Living in habitats affected by wind turbines may result in an increase in corticosterone levels in ground dwelling animals Environmental changes and disturbance factors caused by wind turbines may act as potential stressors for natural populations of both flying and ground dwelling animal species. The physiological stress response results in release of glucocorticoid hormones. … The common vole showed a distinct physiological response − the individuals living near the wind turbines had a higher level of corticosterone [physiological stress affecting regulation of energy, immune reactions]. … This is the first study suggesting impact of wind farms on physiological stress reactions in wild rodent populations. Such knowledge may be helpful in making environmental decisions when planning the development of wind energy and may contribute to optimization of conservation actions for wildlife.”

3. Wind Farms’ ‘Known Impacts’: Mortality Increase, Habitat Destruction, Enhanced Human Interference, Reduced Breeding Opportunities

Ferrão da Costa et al., 2018

“According to a review by Lovich and Ennen (2013), the construction and operation of wind farms have both potential and known impacts on terrestrial vertebrates, such as: (i) increase in direct mortality due to traffic collisions; (ii) destruction and modification of the habitat, including road development, habitat fragmentation and barriers to gene flow; (iii) noise effects, visual impacts, vibration and shadow flicker effects from turbines; (iv) electromagnetic field generation; (v) macro and microclimate change; (vi) predator attraction; and (vii) increase in fire risks. … Helldin et al. (2012) also highlighted that the development of road networks associated with wind farms could promote increased access for traffic related to recreation, forestry, agriculture and hunting. The consequence, particularly on remote places, is the increase in human presence, affecting large mammals via significant disturbance, habitat loss and habitat fragmentation. These negative effects are expected to be particularly relevant for species that are more sensitive to human presence and activities, such as large carnivores. Large carnivores, such as the wolf, bear, lynx or wolverine, tend to avoid areas that are regularly used by humans and—especially for breeding—show a preference for rugged and undisturbed areas (Theuerkauf et al. 2003; George and Crooks 2006; May et al. 2006; Elfstrom et al. 2008; Sazatornil et al. 2016), which are often chosen for wind power development (Passoni et al. 2017). … Results have shown that the main impact of wind farms on wolves is the induced reduction on breeding site fidelity and reproductive rates. These effects, particularly when breeding sites shift to more unsuitable areas, may imply decreasing survival and pack viability in the short term.”

4. Installation Of Wind Turbines Have ‘Population-Level Effects’ For Rare, Endangered Species

Watson et al., 2018

“The global potential for wind power generation is vast, and the number of installations is increasing rapidly. We review case studies from around the world of the effects on raptors of wind-energy development. Collision mortality, displacement, and habitat loss have the potential to cause population-level effects, especially for species that are rare or endangered.”

5. An ‘Urgent Concern’: ‘Wind Power Has Negative Effects On Proximate Wildlife’ (Collision Fatalities, Habitat Loss)

Naylor, 2018

“While wind energy provides a viable solution for emission reductions, it comes at an environmental cost, particularly for birds. As wind energy grows in popularity, its environmental impacts are becoming more apparent. Recent studies indicate that wind power has negative effects on proximate wildlife. These impacts can be direct—collision fatalities—and indirect—habitat loss (Fargione et al. 2012; Glen et al. 2013). Negative impacts associated with operational wind farms include collision mortalities from towers or transmission lines and barotrauma for bats. Habitat loss and fragmentation, as well as avoidance behavior, are also consequences resulting from wind farm construction and related infrastructure. The potential harm towards protected and migratory bird species are an urgent concern, especially for wind farms located along migratory flyways. In terms of mortality, wind turbines kill an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 birds, annually (Smallwood 2013). The high speed at which the fan wings move and the concentration of turbines create a gauntlet of hazards for birds to fly through. … [T]he height of most wind turbines aligns with the altitude many bird species fly at (Bowden 2015). Birds of prey— raptors—are of particular concern because of their slow reproductive cycles and long lifespans relative to other bird species (Kuvlesky 2007).”

6. Wind Farms Negatively Affect Waterfowl Via Habitat Loss, Disturbance Displacement, Compromised Foraging Opportunities

Lange et al., 2018

“Results from our surface water extractions and aerial surveys suggest that the wind farm has negatively affected redheads through altered hydrology and disturbance displacement. Our surface water extraction analysis provides compelling evidence that the local hydrology has been greatly affected by the construction of the wind farm. … Our results suggest the occurrence of direct habitat loss and disturbance displacement of redheads from the wind farm along the lower Texas coast. Although our study was directed solely toward redheads, it is likely that this wind farm has affected other species that use these wetlands or migrate along the lower Texas coast (Contreras et al. 2017). Studies in Europe investigating the effects on waterfowl by wind turbines have reported similar results, showing that turbines have likely compromised foraging opportunities for waterfowl through disturbance displacement (Larsen and Madsen 2000).”

Ice-Free Arctic Fantasies Melting Away As Temperatures Plummet…Sea Ice Mass Grows Impressively

German skeptic and weather expert ‘Schneefan’ here writes how climate activist Mark C. Serreze recently announced this year’s sea ice extent was at the smallest all-time area. But since then Arctic temperatures have plummeted and sea ice area has grown to over 14 million square kilometers:

At the sea ice portal, the development is clearly shown.

Chart: University of Bremen

On March 103 2018 sea ice extent in the Arctic reached 14.55 million km² and so the end of Arctic sea ice growth had in fact not been reached.

The plunge in the mean temperature north of 80°N to -25°C can be seen in the plot by the DMI, and so a growth in sea ice was expected.

After an increase to about -10°C in February (due to a weather pattern) the average temperature above 80°N latitude has since fallen to -25°C. Source: DMI.

Naturally the German mainstream media such as ARD television pounced on the news and set off the climate catastrophe alarms, and thus ended up reporting totally falsely again on the real sea ice development in the Arctic: ARD: heat wave in Arctic.

A heat wave at a mean temperature of -10°C?

Below is what the ARD fake “heat wave” really looks like in the Arctic for the entire 2017/18 winter, shown by a plot of the NOAA reanalysis using measured and computed mean temperatures:

The NOAA reanalysis shows the mean 2m-temperatures for the northern hemisphere in the winter of 2017/18. Source: NOAA reanalysis

Perhaps the editors at ARD should have been more careful in checking where this faulty Arctic information came from before coming out with such climate-alarmist fake news.

A check in the Internet shows that the ARD report quoted Mark C. Serreze, a known climate activist, IPCC author and the person who coined the term Arctic sea ice “death spiral”.

He worked earlier together with the now embarrassed Peter Wadhams, who over the past years falsely forecast  the disappearance of Arctic sea ice on multiple occasions. What unfortunately has escaped the media, such as ARD, is the fact that the Arctic ice cap at the start of March 2018 is much thicker than it was 10 years ago, see the alternating charts that follow:

Impressive growth: sea ice volume (smaller chart, black curve) is greater in March 2018 than the two previous years and is near the average level (gray area) of the past years.

As everyone is aware, the multiple-year ice melts more slowly than the thinner one-year ice – and so we sill see how many Wadhams (1 Wadham = 1 million km²) will be left in September 2018.

This leads us to conclude that there is nothing left of the absurd, Al Gore envisioned, ice-free Arctic fantasies which were suppose to come true already in 2016.

Wind’s False Promise Of Environmental Purity…Everywhere “Everything Is Rotating And Blinking”…”High Price To Pay”

Public opinion of wind energy in Germany, once unanimously high, has eroded considerably over the past years as more people begin to realize that the country’s once idyllic countryside is turning into a blighted industrial landscape.

The earlier visions of environmental purity are instead turning out to be illusions by con-artists. The reality is an environmental hell.

In an opinion piece at German flagship daily Die Welt, Wolfgang Büscher wrote:

Wind energy is destroying the country more than any other industry.”

Blighted landscape…everything “blinking and rotating”

And the irony could not be more glaring. German environmentalists used to be devoted to all things that protected forests and rural countryside against the ravages of industrialization. But now, Büscher writes, “It’s the same activists who are blandishing the blighting of the landscape.”

Büscher describes the views of wind parks in Bavaria as “massively appalling”. While German industry once only ruined local areas of the country, such as the Ruhr industrial region, Büscher adds:

The wind industry is not satisfied with that. It wishes to subject the entire country to its moral galvanized industry. Whether it’s Magdeburg or Warburg Saxony Anhalt regions, whether it’s Holstein or the lower Harz region – everything is rotating and blinking, the further north you go, the worse it is.”

Büscher forgot to mention “whooshing” and “shredding”.

Germany’s march into environmental insanity

Yet, in the eyes of the wind industry, Büscher laments, “The wind industrialization of Germany is not only without alternative, it is an aesthetic benefit. The industry truly believes the entire country needs to by planted with turbines from border to border.”

As incredible as it may be that a country managed to get its citizens to march into the murderous folly of Nazism some 85 years ago, a similar phenomenon is happening today on the environmental front: there’s now the mad march into environmental murder. The collective German conscience still truly believes it’s all going to rescue the planet from a climate calamity which a group of (false) prophets foresee arriving in the year 2100. Environmental purity awaits!

Back on the eerie path of self-destruction

Of course wind industrialization cannot be compared to Nazism on the scales of murder and destruction, but the path and development stages of the two insanities are the eerily similar. Both proceeded as follows: 1) visions and promises of purification, 2) the mad, blind rush into the project 3) critics silenced, 4) signs of mounting failure ignored, 5) denial, retreat to the bunkers and 6) in evitable self-destruction. In both cases it’s all brought on by intoxicated leaders, one-sided media apparatus, crony industries, dogmatist institutions and unscrupulous banks.

Once madness goes collective, it becomes very difficult to stop.

When Germany gets an obsession in its head, the only thing that is left to stop it is the act of letting it play out and until it destroys itself. We may soon be witnessing the Rise and Fall of The Environmental Reich. Currently we find ourselves somewhere between phases 4 and 5.

Fortunately there are shimmers of hope that leading politicians are beginning to understand, as the newly formed Merkel-led government seems to be in no hurry to keep promoting big wind at any cost.

Former federal minister: “high price to pay”

Not only is the environmental price mentioned by Büscher excruciatingly high, but so is the financial price of the Energiewende, this according to former German Transportation Minister, Peter Ramsauer, now Chairman of the Committee for Economic Cooperation and Development.

In a recent interview with the Passauer Neuen Presse (PNP), Ramsauer slammed Germany’s rapid march into the Energiewende, telling the Bavarian online daily: “We have a high price to pay for the Energiewende.”

“Object lesson to other countries”

Ramsauer warned against the hasty shutdown of half of the country’s nuclear power plants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster back in 2011, “but no one wanted to listen”.

The PNP writes that it was “a fundamental mistake to believe that it would be possible to adequately replace the nuclear power”. Ramsauer told the PNP:

Germany is paying a high price for it and offers an object lesson to other countries.”

The PNP summarizes: “There’s no going back. The deadline for shutting down the remaining nuclear reactors is 2022. Ramsauer says that Germany will have to get used to high electricity prices and dependency on Russian gas. The folly will then be complete.”