China Pearl River Delta Sea Level Rise Earlier In The Holocene Was Far More Extreme Than Today

A recent study by Xiong et al titled Holocene sea-level history of the northern coast of South China Sea tells us that sea level rise today is total within the range of natural variability.

The scientists collected and analyzed seven sediment cores from the Pearl River delta, from which they generated 16 new and high-quality sea-level index points.

The paper’s abstract writes that the study “re-checked and re-calibrated the previously published sea-level data from China’s southeast coast with corrections made for tectonic subsidence and sediment compaction factors.”

The results, the authors report:

These sea-level data indicate a rise of relative sea level from −49.3 ± 0.8 m to the present height between 10,500 and 7000 cal. a BP. This sea-level history is similar to those recorded from other far-field locations and ice-volume equivalent sea-level models. The early to early-middle Holocene sea-level history in the study area shows a phase of accelerated rise at a rate increasing rapidly from 16.4 ± 6.1 mm/a at 10,500 cal. a BP to 33.0 ± 7.1 mm/a at 9500 cal. a BP. This phase was followed by a period of rapid decrease in the rate of sea-level rise to 8.8 ± 1.9 mm/a at 8500 cal. a BP and 1.7 ± 1.3 mm/a at 7500 cal. a BP. During the past 7000 years, the relative sea level in the study area changed very little. This new and complete history of Holocene sea-level change supports the following findings: (1) no obvious higher-than-present sea-level highstand in the Holocene is found from the northern South China Sea; (2) certain proportion of the effects of the predicted glacial isostatic adjustment were cancelled out by the effects of the weak upper mantle viscosity in the study area; (3) meltwater pulse 1b likely exists spanning into the early Holocene; (4) there are significant misfit between sea-level data and glacial isostatic adjustment models, and a revision to the existing ice melting history for the early Holocene is possibly needed.”

Overall the study finds: “The rate of relative sea-level rise had varied and peaked at 33.0 ± 7.1 mm/a around 9500 cal. a BP.”

When comparing today’s current sea level rise of just 2 mm/yr as measured from a vast array of tide gauges worldwide, we get the sense that this is puny in comparison to the changes the earth experienced over the Holocene (the past 10,000 years).

Sea levels were higher than today when CO2 was much lower

Also read here how 75 recent scientific publications show sea levels were 2 meters higher than they are today, even though CO2 in the atmosphere was much less at 265 ppm.

In The Arctic, AMO/NAO ‘Predominantly Force Ocean Temperatures’ And ‘Cause Major Melting Events’

6 New Papers Link Arctic/North Atlantic

Climate Changes To Natural Factors

1. Natural variability/NAO/AMO “predominantly force ocean temperatures” and Greenland ice sheet melt 

Hahn et al., 2018
“North Atlantic Natural Variability Modulates Emergence of Widespread Greenland Melt in a Warming Climate … Using reanalysis data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation consistently promote heightened summer melt under various forcing conditions. Moreover, timing of widespread 21st century Greenland melt varies considerably between ensemble members due to different phasing of these modes of natural variability. These results indicate the importance of natural modes of variability across a range of external forcing conditions for interannual melt variability and the emergence of widespread Greenland melt. … North Atlantic warming in high melt years is driven by the negative NAO rather than the AMO (Hurrell & Deser, 2010). Downward (upward) turbulent heat flux anomalies over warmer (colder) ocean regions during high melt seasons further suggest that NAO-related wind and heat fluxes predominantly force ocean temperatures.”

(press release)
“The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, found that when the NAO stays in its negative phase (meaning that air pressure is high over Greenland) it can trigger extreme ice melt in Greenland during the summer seasonLikewise, the AMO, which alters sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, can cause major melting events when it is in its warm phase, raising the temperature of the region as a whole.”

2. Arctic sea ice and surface cooling/warming attributed to variations in the AMO

Li et al., 2018

The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly declining in the last two decades, concurrent with a shift in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) to its warm phase around 1996/97. … We suggest that the cold AMO phase is important to regulate the atmospheric response to AASIC [Atlantic sector of the Arctic sea ice cover] decline and our study provides insight to the ongoing debate on the connection between the Arctic sea ice and the AO.”

Drinkwater et al., 2018

Following rapid cooling in the 1960s, much of the North Atlantic Ocean was characterized by a cold period during the 1970s and 1980s. This cold period was part of the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO, which has a period of ∼60–80 years. During this cold period, below average air and sea temperatures predominated, increased ice cover was observed in those northern regions with seasonal sea ice, and evidence was found of reduced Atlantic inflow into the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. The ecological responses included a reduction in primary production and geographic shifts in zooplankton species. Also, there was a general southward expansion of arctic and boreal fish species and a retreat of the temperate species. Major fish stocks such as Atlantic cod off Greenland and Labrador/northern Newfoundland, as well as the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, collapsed commercially. These collapses were partly driven by climate-induced declines in growth rates and recruitment survival, as well as fishing. In contrast, in the more southern range of Atlantic cod, such as the North Sea, the opposite response occurred as the cool conditions led to improved growth rates and higher abundance. Long-term measurements in the English Channel documented the replacement of several warm-water species with more northern cold-water species. Benthic and nearshore species also underwent distributional shifts and changing abundances. Comparisons with the responses to the warm periods suggest that following the cold period of the 1970s and 1980s, the ecosystem in the 1990s and 2000s returned to conditions akin to what they were in the previous warm period of the 1930s–1950s. However, there were some notable exceptions, such as the continued low abundance of Atlantic cod off West Greenland and Labrador/northern Newfoundland.”

3. Arctic radiation budget “governed” by cloud cover changes

Perovich, 2018

The surface radiation budget of the Arctic Ocean plays a central role in summer ice melt and is governed by clouds and surface albedo. … Longwave and shortwave radiation are primary drivers in the surface heat budget during summer melt (Persson et al., 2002). The surface radiative balance consists of contributions from incoming shortwave radiation, reflected shortwave radiation, incoming longwave radiation, and outgoing longwave radiation. Clouds have a major impact on both incoming longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes. … Future impacts on net radiative balances will depend on both ice and cloud conditions. As the sea ice cover evolves towards more first year ice, greater melt pond coverage, and more open water, the area-averaged albedo will be less than the break-even albedo for much of the summer. This implies less melting under cloudy conditions than sunny. However, the net radiative balance will still likely be less under sunny skies at the beginning of the melt season in May and early June.”

4. Surface wind speeds “closely associated” with Arctic sea ice reduction during 1979-2009

Zhang et al., 2018

“[W]e conducted a statistical analysis to examine overall relationships between surface winds, SST [sea surface temperature], and sea ice in the CBS [Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Arctic Ocean], using the newly developed CBHAR data set. The result shows a significant negative correlation between the surface winds and SIC [sea ice concentration], further confirming that increased wind speeds are closely associated with the reduction in SIC [sea ice concentration] (Stegall and Zhang 2012) […] during September and October from 1979−2009. …  A scatter plot of mean SIC [sea ice concentration] and wind speed anomalies, as well as the variation in wind speed anomalies […] demonstrat[e] a clear inverse linear relationship between surface wind speed and SIC [sea ice concentration] anomalies, with a correlation coefficient of −0.94 at a 99% level of significance using the t-test (Snedecor and Cochran 1989). This statistically suggests that surface wind speeds generally increase as SIC [sea ice concentration] decreases. … Taken together, the negative correlation between winds and SST [sea surface temperatures] over the OW and LIC areas can be attributed to reduced shortwave radiation due to increased cloudiness, increased upward sensible and latent heat fluxes, and strong cold advection from sea ice towards the north when strong winds are present, or vice versa when weak winds occur.”  

[Neither CO2 concentration or anthropogenic forcing is mentioned anywhere in the paper as radiative factors affecting sea surface temperatures or sea ice concentrations during 1979-2009.]

5. Volcanic activity “appear to underpin” sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic

Birkel et al., 2018

We find that cool intervals across the North Atlantic coincide with two distinct episodes of explosive volcanic activity (1880s–1920s and 1960s–1990s), where key eruptions include 1883 Krakatau, 1902 Santa María, 1912 Novarupta, 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo. Cool SST patterns develop in association with an increased prevalence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)+ atmospheric patterns caused by stratospheric aerosol loading and a steepened poleward temperature gradient. NAO+ patterns promote wind-driven advection, evaporative cooling, and increased albedo from enhanced Saharan dust transport and anthropogenic aerosols. SSTs across the subpolar gyre are regulated by strength of low pressure near Iceland and the associated wind-driven advection of cold surface water from the Labrador Sea. This is contrary to an interpretation that subpolar SSTs are driven by changes in ocean overturning circulation. We also find that North Pacific and global mean SST declines can be readily associated with the same volcanic triggers that affect the North Atlantic. Thus, external forcing from volcanic aerosols appears to underpin multi-decade SST variability observed in the historical record.”

Environmental “Time Bomb”…China To Dump 20 Million Tonnes Of Solar Panel Waste Into Environment

We have to face it: The West has done our planet no favor by moving industrial production and manufacturing to China. Trump is right, many of factories and industries are better back home, even if it means paying a bit more for products.

Not only does the China use the oceans as a global dump for much of its plastic trash, the country now is gearing up to turn parts of the planet into a toxic solar panel waste dump.

According to French science magazine Futura here, we are looking at a “solar panel time bomb”.

Futura describes how China is installing “gigantic” solar panel farms in remote places like Tibet and how 30 years from now the country will have “mountains of solar panels reaching their end of their lives and that nothing is planned for their collection and recycling.”

20 million TONNES of solar panel waste

According to Futura, China met its 2020 solar energy installation target three years in advance and that its capacity will grown tenfold by 2040 – growing from 77 GW of installed rated capacity to 738 GW. This all means that China ultimately will pile up to 20 million tonnes of waste by 2050, which will be more than the United States, Japan and Germany combined.

Futura quotes Tian Min, a director of a Chinese company which collects used panels.

Our solar industry is a real time bomb.”

While Europe has already regulations in place for handling solar panels at the end of their lifetimes, China so far has no plan whatsoever in place to handle scrap panel problem, Futura reports.

Most manufacturers focus on developing better panels and do not care about the fate of their products.”

Futura also reports on the material composition of solar panels and notes that they contain toxic substances such as bromine, cadmium and lead, which are “difficult to separate and eliminate.”

“Their treatment requires an expensive process and the use of polluting chemicals.”

That’s the how Europe sees it. But for China, such annoyances such as toxic materials simply get ignored and are merely discarded into the landscape or oceans.

And because China’s gigantic solar installations are often located in very poor and remote areas, such as the Tengger Desert, Tibet or Inner Mongolia, it’s unlikely they will be transported to the few recycling plants in the industrial provinces of the Pacific coast. It’s imply not economical.

Futura reports that once panels near the end of their lifetime, one idea is to send the old Chinese panels to Middle East regions, where ultimately they will be simply discarded and end up littering and poisoning the entire landscape.

Some Scientists Call Prof. Schellnhuber’s Claim Man Is Preventing Next Ice Age “Huge Nonsense”

In an interview with the online German Augsburger Allgemeine (AA), former director of the the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, made some claims that have raised some eyebrows.

Image right: Prof Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, Source: PIK

What follows is a commentary from two German scientists:
=======================================

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Huge nonsense in the German Augsburger Allgemeinen on August 19, 2018:

Climate scientist Schellnhuber: “There will never be another ice age”

[…]

AA: Two weeks ago, an international study was published in which you too were involved. There was talk of a hot period. Sounds dramatic…

Schellnhuber: And it is. On Earth, ice ages and warm periods have alternated for millions of years. We have shown in studies that the industrial society, with its historic greenhouse gas emissions, has already interrupted this cycle and there will probably never be another ice age. So my colleagues and I brought up the question: Can our climate system be stabilized in the currently prevailing warm period state, or are we putting planetary processes in motion that are driving us into a hot period? The difference is, roughly speaking, the continued existence of civilization as we know it. With a long-term increase in temperature of five or six degrees and a sea level of around 60 meters, it will not be possible maintain it.”

Schellnhuber confuses CO2 cycles with ice age cycles

Professor Schellnhuber is a real joker. Glacials and interglacials occur on timescales of tens of thousands of years. However, the duration of CO2 staying time in the atmosphere is only 100 years. After a few hundred years at the latest, the CO2 would return to pre-industrial levels. Hasn’t anyone ever made this clear to Prof. Schellnhuber? Since nobody will ever experience the scenario, he can go on making outlandish claims about the far off future.

Also for a good laugh, read our post: PIK warning of the next ice age never appearing. Mojib Latif cool: “CO2 istays in the atmosphere for 100 years”

More on Schellnhuber: Peer review system in need of an overhaul: Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber chooses his own reviewers

Norwegian Risk Management Company Says Globe Will Fall Way Short Of 2050 Green Energy Targets by 2050

Renewable energy proponents claim that the planet must reduce its carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 in order to avert excessive global warming.

However, global quality assurance and risk management company Norwegian DNV GL writes in a recent report that although the money spent on renewables is set to triple by 2050 and fossil fuel spending will drop by around a third, “renewables and fossil fuels to equally share supply by mid-century.”

Half of world’s energy will be supplied by fossil fuels in 2050

This means that at least half of the world’s energy supply will still be provided fossil fuels by 2050, and not 80% by renewables.

According to the DNV GL, coal has peaked, oil will peak in 2023 and natural gas will become largest single source from 2026.

The DNV GL also writes energy demand will start to drop by 2035. It also expects that a rapid electrification of the energy system will deliver efficiency gains that will outpace GDP and population growth.

The green energy promoting DNV GL admits that the Co2 and fossil fuel reductions targets will not be met:

Fossil fuels will play an important if reduced role in our energy future with its share of the energy mix set to drop from around 80% today to 50% by the middle of the century, with the other half provided by renewables.”

Only 28% from wind and sun in 2050

It adds:

Natural gas will become the single largest source in 2026 and it will meet 25% of the world’s energy needs by 2050.  Oil will peak in 2023 and coal has already peaked.  Solar PV (16% of world energy supply) and wind (12%) will grow to become the most significant players amongst the renewable sources with both set to meet the majority of new electricity demand.”

That’s a far cry from where climate experts say we will need to be.

DNV GL takes an especially optimistic view of the electrification of society, especially the automotive industry in Europe by 2027. It believes “half of new cars sold in Europe will be battery powered and the same will be true five years later in China, India and North America.  This will contribute to an overall reduction in the transport sector’s share of global energy demand from 27% to 20% by 2050.”

“No silver bullet”

It adds: “There is no silver bullet and energy efficiency, renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) must all be ramped up to combat climate change.

The reality is that in some countries renewables are being ramped down.

DNV GL serves both the renewables and oil & gas industries and the Energy Transition Outlook has become a leading impartial voice on the energy future.

New Paper: The GCR-Cloud Link To Solar-Driven Climate Change Persists Despite The Post-2000 ‘Violation’

The strong correlation between Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and cloud formation has for decades been postulated as a primary mechanism  for solar-driven natural climate change. Concisely, “When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up” (Svensmark et al., 2017).  Since about 2000, however, this GCR-cloud correlation has been violated (solar activity has declined without accompanying GCR flux), leading many to question the link. A new paper suggests this post-2000 “violation” is actually “not…unexpected”, has occurred previously, and does not undermine the Sun-GCR/cloud explanation for naturally-driven climate change.  


Veretenenko et al., 2018

Galactic Cosmic Rays and Low Clouds:
Possible Reasons for Correlation Reversal

“Indeed, cloudiness changes can strongly modulate fluxes of both incoming short-wave solar radiation and outgoing long-wave radiation of the Earth and the atmosphere and, thus, influence significantly the radiative-thermal balance of the atmosphere. High-level clouds contribute to the warming of the atmosphere, whereas low-level clouds contribute, as a rule, to its cooling. A net influx of radiation coming to the Earth’s surface under cloudy conditions depends on latitude, season and underlying surface. According to the data obtained from spaceborne experiments [Nimbus 7 Earth Radiation Budget experiment (N7ERB) and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)], when averaged over the globe, cloudiness reduces the input of solar radiation by 44.5–54.3 W·m−2 (depending on the season) and the emission of long-wave radiation to space by 23.6–34.7 W·m−2 [1, 2]. As a result, cloudiness decreases the global radiative heating of the atmosphere by 17.3–26.8 W·m−2.”

Influence of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on cloud formation is suggested to be an important part of the mechanism of solar activity influence on weather and climate. A high positive correlation between low cloud amount and GCR fluxes was observed in the 1980s–1990s; however, in the early 2000s, it was violated. In this work, we consider a nature of long-term correlation links between cloud cover at middle latitudes and GCRs, as well as possible reasons for this correlation reversal. It was shown that the GCR-cloud links observed on the decadal time scale are indirect and caused by GCR effects on cyclonic activity which depend on epochs of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The reversal of GCR-cloud correlation in the 2000s seems to be due to a sharp weakening of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices, which results in the change of the troposphere-stratosphere coupling and, then, of GCR contribution to the development of extratropical cyclogenesis.”

“Correlation links observed between lower atmosphere characteristics and phenomena related to solar activity may weaken, disappear and even change sign depending on time period. So, a violation of the cloud-GCR link in the 2000s is not an extraordinary event. Herman and Goldberg [56] suggested that a reason for temporal variability of solar-atmospheric links may be long-term processes of the Sun which do not influence sunspot numbers and/or some changes of atmospheric conditions. Veretenenko and Ogurtsov [42, 43] showed that temporal behavior of correlation links between surface pressure at extratropical latitudes and sunspot numbers is characterized by a roughly 60-year periodicity caused by changes in the epochs of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The reversals of the correlation signs were found in the end of the nineteenth century, in the early 1920s, the 1950s and the early 1980s coinciding with climatic regime shifts at middle latitudes [57], as well as with the transitions between cold and warm epochs in the Arctic [58]. So, a violation of the cloud-GCR link in the 2000s seems not to be unexpected and may be associated with the next change of the circulation epochs resulting in the change of GCR contribution to extratropical cyclonic activity and, then, to cloud field formation.”

Image Source: Veretenenko et al., 2018

Cloud Radiative Forcing Can Explain 1980s-2000s Warming 

Cloud cover changes dominate in altering the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth’s surface (Stanhill et al., 2014; Mateos et al., 2014).

With fewer clouds, more solar radiation can be absorbed by the oceans rather than reflected back to space; this, in turn, leads to warming.

Image Source: Sciencedaily.com and Climate4you.com

Cloud cover changes and the concomitant alteration of surface solar heat absorption can therefore explain the 1980s to 2000s warming via the increase in absorbed solar radiation (Pinker et al., 2005Pallé et al., 2004Herman et al., 2013Wang et al., 2012Calbó et al., 2016Kauppinen et al, 2014McLean, 2014).

The GCR-Cloud “Missing Link” To Climate Change “Breakthrough”

There has recently been a scientific “breakthrough” in understanding the “missing link” between the Sun’s modulation of cosmic rays and thus cloud cover, supported by real-world observational evidence (3,100 hours of data sampling and controlled experimentation).

The following is an abbreviated list of 14 scientific papers supporting the Sunspot Activity→Cosmic Ray Flux→Cloud Cover Changes→Climate Changes conceptualization published within the last year.


Sciencedaily press release for Svensmark et al., 2017

The missing link between exploding stars, clouds, and climate on Earth

“Breakthrough in understanding of how cosmic rays from supernovae can influence Earth’s cloud cover and thereby climate”
“The new results reveal, both theoretically and experimentally, how interactions between ions and aerosols can accelerate the growth by adding material to the small aerosols and thereby help them survive to become cloud condensation nuclei. It gives a physical foundation to the large body of empirical evidence showing that Solar activity plays a role in variations in Earth’s climate. For example, the Medieval Warm Period around year 1000 AD and the cold period in the Little Ice Age 1300-1900 AD both fits with changes in Solar activity.”
“‘Finally we have the last piece of the puzzle explaining how particles from space affect climate on Earth. It gives an understanding of how changes caused by Solar activity or by super nova activity can change climate.’ says Henrik Svensmark, from DTU Space at the Technical University of Denmark, lead author of the study.
“Data was taken over a period of 2 years with total 3100 hours of data sampling. The results of the experiments agreed with the theoretical predictions.”
• Low clouds made with liquid water droplets cool the Earth’s surface.
Variations in the Sun’s magnetic activity alter the influx of cosmic rays to the Earth.
•When the Sun is lazy, magnetically speaking, there are more cosmic rays and more low clouds, and the world is cooler.
When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up.
The implications of the study suggests that the mechanism can have affected:
• The climate changes observed during the 20th century
The coolings and warmings of around 2°C that have occurred repeatedly over the past 10,000 years, as the Sun’s activity and the cosmic ray influx have varied.
• The much larger variations of up to 10°C occuring as the Sun and Earth travel through the Galaxy visiting regions with varying numbers of exploding stars.

Govil et al., 2018

“The spectral analysis of the sedimentological parameters reveals the significant periodicities (>95% significance) centering at ∼1067, ∼907, and ∼824 years. The long-term trends in the data suggest the possible fluctuation of Antarctic ice-sheet superimposed on global climatic fluctuations due to solar activity.  … The curiosity of climate scientists arises on the mechanism of reaction of the climate system in response to the changes in solar forcing. There are two possible mechanisms proposed which work through the atmospheric processes. The first mechanism includes the action of the ozone layer by increasing more UV radiations with increased solar activity. It must have raised the temperature in the stratosphere which produces stronger winds in lower stratosphere and troposphere. These strong winds in the troposphere result in the relocation of pressure cells and storm tracks which ultimately disturbs the climate system (Schindell et al., 1999; Crosta et al., 2007). The second proposed mechanism considers the cosmic rays and cloud cover responsible for amplifying the climate forcing (Svensmark, 2000).”
High solar activity is believed to be responsible for less cooling of the lower atmosphere due to reduced cloud cover (Marsh and Svensmar, 2000). Conversely, low solar activity is believed to provide additional cooling of the lower atmosphere. These two feedback mechanisms responsible for the climatic forcing due to solar activity may work alone or in conjugation and are also superposed to other climate forcing as well as variability of internal cycling (Rind, 2002). Further, the periodic increase in solar activity results in increased temperature in the lower atmosphere which causes melting of ice-sheets in the Antarctic region. It may further provide the periodicity in freshwater discharge in the Schirmacher lakes and hence regulates the depositional environment of the studies lake.”

Fleming, 2018

“The results of this review point to the extreme value of  CO2 to all life forms, but no role of  CO2 in any significant change of the Earth’s climate. … There is no correlation of CO2 with temperature in any historical data set that was reviewed. The climate-change cooling over the 1940–1975 time period of the Modern Warming period was shown to be influenced by a combination of solar factors. The cause of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age climate changes was the solar magnetic field and cosmic ray connection.  When the solar magnetic field is strong, it acts as a barrier to cosmic rays entering the Earth’s atmosphere, clouds decrease and the Earth warms. Conversely when the solar magnetic field is weak, there is no barrier to cosmic rays—they greatly increase large areas of low-level clouds, increasing the Earth’s albedo and the planet cools.”
“Nevertheless, these results over this long period strongly suggest that the solar magnetic feld/cosmic ray interaction is the primary cause of major climate-change events over the past 9400 years of the interglacial period. The 35-year cool period within the current Modern Warming was an example where the Gleissberg cycle imposed only a modest impact on the existing strength of the magnetic feld that was in place. The current Modern Warming will continue until the strength of the Sun’s magnetic field declines.”


Utomo, 2017

“A similar result was also found for the relationship between solar activity and cosmic ray flux with a negative correlation, i.e. 0.69/year. When solar activities decrease, the clouds cover rate increase due-0.61/month and – to secondary ions produced by cosmic rays. The increase in the cloud cover rate causes the decrease in solar constant value and solar radiation on the earth’s surface. … The increase in the formation rate of cloud would affect the decrease in the intensity of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. The relationship between cosmic rays and solar constant is an “opposite” relationship because of the negative correlation type (r < 0). The phenomenon of “opposite” is in a good agreement with the result by Svensmark (1997) who found a correlation between temperature and global cloud coverage with the cosmic rays… [T]he climate also depends on variations in the flux of solar energy received by the earth’s surface. Variation in the solar energy flux is caused by variations in solar activity cycle. Thus the climate is a manifestation of how solar radiation is absorbed, redistributed by the atmosphere, land and oceans, and ultimately radiated back into space. Every variation of solar energy received at the earth’s surface and reradiated by the earth into space will have a direct impact on climate change on Earth.”


Tomicic et al., 2018

Secondary aerosol particles, which are formed by nucleation processes in the atmosphere, play an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the Earth’s climate system. They affect the Earth’s radiation balance by scattering solar radiation back to space and can also act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thereby affect the amount of cloud and its radiative properties. Clouds have a net cooling effect on the Earth’s radiation budget of about −27.7 W m−2 (Hartmann, 1993). Thus, a small change in cloud properties can have significant effect on the climate system. Results by Merikanto et al. (2009) and Yu and Luo (2009) have shown that a significant fraction (ranging between 31 and 70 %) of cloud-forming aerosol particles in the atmosphere are secondary particles that originate from nucleation. Therefore, understanding nucleation is crucial in order to fully understand the atmospheric and climatic effects of aerosols.”

Kitaba et al., 2017   

The weakening of the geomagnetic field causes an increase in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. Some researchers argue that enhanced GCR flux might lead to a climatic cooling by increasing low cloud formation, which enhances albedo (umbrella effect). Recent studies have reported geological evidence for a link between weakened geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. … Greater terrestrial cooling indicates that a reduction of insolation [solar radiation reaching the surface] is playing a key role in the link between the weakening of the geomagnetic field and climatic cooling. The most likely candidate for the mechanism seems to be the increased albedo of the umbrella effect.”

Frigo et al., 2018

“In this work, we investigate the relationship between the 11-year and 22-year cycles that are related to solar activity and GCRs [galactic cosmic rays] and the annual average temperature recorded between 1936 and 2014 at two weather stations, both located near a latitude of 26◦ S but at different longitudes. …  Sunspot data and the solar modulation potential for cosmic rays were used as proxies for the solar activity and the GCRs, respectively. Our investigation of the influence of decadal and bidecadal cycles in temperature data was carried out using the wavelet transform coherence (WTC) spectrum. The results indicate that periodicities of 11 years may have continuously modulated the climate at TOR [Torres, Brazil] via a nonlinear mechanism … The obtained results offer indirect mathematical evidence that solar activity and GCR variations contributed to climatic changes in southern Brazil during the last century. The contribution of other mechanisms also related to solar activity cannot be excluded.”

Biktash, 2017

“The effects of total solar irradiance (TSI) and volcanic activity on long-term global temperature variations during solar cycles 19–23 [1954-2008] were studied. It was shown that a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI [total solar irradiance] and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters. … Recent studies by Pudovkin and Raspopov, Tinsley, and Swensmark have shown that the Earth’s cloud coverage is strongly influenced by cosmic ray intensity. Conditions in interplanetary space, which can influence GCRs and climate change, have been studied in numerous works. As has been demonstrated by Biktash, the long-term CR count rate and global temperature variations in 20–23 solar cycles are modulated by solar activity and by the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field). A possible geophysical factor which is able to affect the influence of solar activity on the Earth’s climate is volcanism. The effects of volcanism can lead to serious consequences in the atmosphere and the climate.”

Wilson and Sidorenkov, 2018

“The fact that the periods of eight out of nine of the most prominent peaks in the lunar alignment spectrum (highlighted column 3 of Table 2) closely match those in the spectra of ϕm [solar modulation potentional]  and Tm [maximum daily temperature], strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are closely related to one another. … principal component analyses of the 10Be and 14C records show that, on multi-decadal to centennial time scales, the radionuclide production signal accounts for 76% of the total variance in the data [18,19]. This would imply that there is a causal link between Tm [maximum daily temperature] and near-Earth GCR flux, with a factor related to the latter driving the former.  … An implicit assumption that is used by those who reject GCR [galactic cosmic rays]-cloud models is that the GCR flux hitting the Earth needs to produce changes in the total amount of cloud cover over the majority of the globe in order to significantly affect the world mean temperature. However, this assumption ignores the possibility that regional changes in the amount of cloud cover could influence the rate at which the Earth’s climate system warms or cools. Of course, for this to be true there would have to be observational evidence that shows that the GCR flux can affect the level of cloud cover on a regional scale. Support for this hypothesis is provided [23] who claim that existing multi-decadal ground-based datasets for clouds show that there is a weak but significant correlation between the amounts of regional cloud cover and the overall level of GCR fluxes. In addition, Larken et al. [2010] find that there is a strong and robust positive correlation between statistically significant variations in the short-term (daily) GCR ray flux and the most rapid decreases in cloud cover over the mid-latitudes (30° – 60° N/S). Moreover, Larken et al. [2010] find that there is a direct causal link between the observed cloud changes and changes in the sea level atmospheric temperature, over similar time periods.”Hence, the solar connection between Tm and ϕm can be summarized using a heuristic luni-solar model like that shown in Figure 6. Firstly, the model proposes that there must be some, as yet, unknown factor associated with the level of solar activity on the Sun (e.g. possibly the overall level GCR hitting the Earth) that is producing long-term systematic changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover. Secondly, the model proposes that the resulting changes in regional cloud cover lead to variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles which, in turn, result in changes to the peak strength of the zonal tropical winds. Thirdly, the model further proposes that it is the long-term changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover, combined with the variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles that lead to the long-term changes in the poleward energy and momentum flux. And finally, the model proposes that it is this flux which governs the rate at which the Earth warms and cools, and hence, determines the long-term changes in the world mean temperature.”

Vieira et al., 2018

“Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are the main source of ionizing radiation in the lower troposphere, in which secondary products can penetrate the ground and underground layers. GCRs affect the physical–chemical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere, as well as the biosphere. GCRs are modulated by solar activity and latitudinal geomagnetic field distribution.”

Tyasto et al., 2018

“Variations of charged particles of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which are caused by variations in the Earth’s magnetic field, are one of most significant among the variety of phenomena that influence the near-Earth medium and, consequently, the Earth’s climate and weather. Being the main sources of atmospheric ionization, they influence the atmosphere transparency and play the key role in formation of clouds, thunderstorms, and lightnings (Dorman, 2009).”

Luthardt and Rößler, 2017

“The 11 yr solar cycle, also known as Schwabe cycle, represents the smallest-scaled solar cyclicity and is traced back to sunspot activity (Douglass, 1928; Lean, 2000), which has a measurable effect on the Earth’s climate, as indicated by the Maunder minimum (Usoskin et al., 2015). Global climate feedback reactions to solar irradiance variations caused by sunspots are complex and hypothesized to be triggered by (1) variation in total energy input (Cubasch and Voss, 2000), (2) the influence of ultraviolet light intensity variation on composition of the stratosphere (Lean and Rind, 2001), (3) the effect of cosmic rays on cloud formation (Marsh and Svensmark, 2000; Sun and Bradley, 2002), and/or (4) the effect of high-energy particles on the strato- and mesosphere (Jackman et al., 2005). …  [L]ike today, sunspot activity caused fluctuations of cosmic radiation input to the atmosphere, affecting cloud formation and annual rates of precipitation.”

Palcsu et al., 2018

The relationship between the atmospheric concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, the change of solar activity and hence secondary neutron flux has already been proven. The temporal atmospheric variation of the most studied cosmogenic isotopes shows a significant anti-correlation with solar cycles. However, since artificial tritium input to the atmosphere due to nuclear-weapon tests masked the expected variations of tritium production rate by three orders of magnitude, the natural variation of tritium in meteoric precipitation has not previously been detected. For the first time, we provide clear evidence of the positive correlation between the tritium concentration of meteoric precipitation and neutron flux modulated by solar magnetic activity. We found trends in tritium time series for numerous locations worldwide which are similar to the variation of secondary neutron flux and sun spot numbers. This variability appears to have similar periodicities to that of solar cycle. Frequency analysis, cross correlation analysis, continuous and cross wavelet analysis provide mathematical evidence that the correlation between solar cycle and meteoric tritium does exist. Our results demonstrate that the response of tritium variation in precipitation to the solar cycle can be used to help us understand its role in the water cycle.”

Padovani et al., 2018

“The presence of small amounts of atomic hydrogen, detected as absorption dips in the 21 cm line spectrum, is a well-known characteristic of dark clouds. The abundance of hydrogen atoms measured in the densest regions of molecular clouds can be only explained by the dissociation of H2 due to cosmic rays. … Our findings show that a careful description of molecular hydrogen dissociation by cosmic rays can explain the abundance of atomic hydrogen in dark clouds. An accurate characterisation of this process at high densities is crucial for understanding the chemical evolution of star-forming regions.”

PhD Physicist Says Evidence Of Major Human Role In Climate “Is Lacking” …Sees “Abuses Of Science”

PhD physicist Ralph B. Alexander has authored a new book: Science Under Attack: The Age of Unreason.

What follows is a taste of what readers can expect from the book. Ideal present for the upcoming Christmas season.
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Evidence Lacking for Major Human Role in Climate Change

By Ralph B. Alexander

Conventional scientific wisdom holds that global warming and consequent changes in the climate are primarily our own doing. But what few people realize is that the actual scientific evidence for a substantial human contribution to climate change is flimsy. It requires highly questionable computer climate models to make the connection between global warming and human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).

No proof warming is human caused

The multiple lines of evidence which do exist are simply evidence that the world is warming, not proof that the warming comes predominantly from human activity. The supposed proof relies entirely on computer models that attempt to simulate the earth’s highly complex climate and include greenhouse gases as well as aerosols from both volcanic and man-made sources – but almost totally ignore natural variability.

Models way off mark

So it shouldn’t be surprising that the models have a dismal track record in predicting the future. Most spectacularly, the models failed to predict the recent pause or hiatus in global warming from the late 1990s to about 2014. During this period, the warming rate dropped to only a third to a half of the rate measured from the early 1970s to 1998, while at the same time CO2 kept spewing into the atmosphere. Out of 32 climate models, only a lone Russian model came anywhere close to the actual observations.

Blog1 image JPG.jpg

Not only did the models overestimate the warming rate by two or three times, they wrongly predict a hot spot in the upper atmosphere that isn’t there, and are unable to accurately reproduce sea level rise.

Yet it’s these same failed models that underpin the whole case for catastrophic consequences of man-made climate change, a case embodied in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions – which 195 nations, together with many of the world’s scientific societies and national academies, have signed on to – is based not on empirical evidence, but on artificial computer models. Only the models link climate change to human activity. The empirical evidence does not.

Correlation is not causation

Proponents of human-caused global warming, including a majority of climate scientists, insist that the boost to global temperatures of about 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since 1850 comes almost exclusively from the steady increase in the atmospheric CO2 level. They argue that elevated CO2 must be the cause of nearly all the warming because the sole major change in climate “forcing” over this period has been from CO2 produced by human activities – mainly the burning of fossil fuels as well as deforestation.

But correlation is not causation, as is well known from statistics or the public health field of epidemiology. So believers in the narrative of catastrophic anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change fall back on computer models to shore up their argument. With the climate change narrative trumpeted by political entities such as the UN’s IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and amplified by compliant media worldwide, predictions of computer climate models have acquired the status of quasi-religious edicts.

Warmists on the wrong side of science

Indeed, anyone disputing the conventional wisdom is labeled a “denier” by advocates of climate change orthodoxy, who claim that global warming skeptics are just as anti-science as those who believe vaccines cause autism. The much ballyhooed war on science typically lumps climate change skeptics together with creationists, anti-vaccinationists and anti-GMO activists. But the climate warmists are the ones on the wrong side of science.

“Fear, hyperbole, heavy-handed tactics”

Like their counterparts in the debate over the safety of GMOs, warmists employ fear, hyperbole and heavy-handed political tactics in an attempt to shut down debate. Yet skepticism about the human influence on global warming persists, and may even be growing among the general public. In 2018, a Gallup poll in the U.S. found that 36% of Americans don’t believe that global warming is caused by human activity, while a UK survey showed that a staggering 64% of the British public feel the same way. And the percentage of climate scientists who endorse the mainstream view of a strong human influence is nowhere near the widely believed 97%, although it’s probably above 50%.

Most scientists who are skeptics like me accept that global warming is real, but not that it’s entirely man-made or that it’s dangerous. The observations alone aren’t evidence for a major human role. Such lack of regard for the importance of empirical evidence, and misguided faith in the power of deficient computer climate models, are abuses of science.

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Ralph B. Alexander grew up in Perth, Western Australia, and received his PhD in physics from the University of Oxford 

Western Europe 2018/19 Winter Projected To Be Cooler Than Normal, Some Early Forecasts Suggest

As the end of September closes in and the first signs of winter begin to appear, some people are wondering what to expect for the coming winter. Cold and snowy or mild and rainy?

Meteorologists are busy looking for signs of the coming winter using different methods. This season a variety of results have been emerging.

ECMWF and Joe Bastardi

At yesterday’s Daily Update, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi for example tells us much of the US can expect a higher chance of a harsh winter. He also hinted how Europe could see a normal or even cooler than normal winter. His forecasts are based on analogues.

Meanwhile the September 1st European models show Europe in fact can expect a modestly cooler than normal winter.

What follows is the forecast winter temperature deviation for December 2018:

Source: Kachelmannwetter.com

In December most of Europe can expect slightly warmer than normal temperatures, with northwest Europe near normal.

However things are projected to cool down a bit in January:

Source: Kachelmannwetter.com

In January, according to the ECMWF simulation, most of Europe will be normal or a bit below normal. Northern Europe will be shivering somewhat more than usual.

For February:

Source: Kachelmannwetter.com

Above we see that Eastern Europe being a little on the warm side with much of western Europe near normal temperatures.

Gav’s weather vids here sums up it all up. In summary some are seeing a normal to slightly cooler than normal winter for Western Europe.

US National Weather Service NWS GFSv2

But not everyone sees white or blue, the National Weather Service NCEP GFSv2 model for the winter are seeing plenty of red.

German meteorologist Dominik Jung above presents the GFS outlook, which shows Europe’s winter being dominated by lows dragging in moist and mild air from the Atlantic and so keeping the continent up to 3°C warmer than normal in January, and 1 – 2°C warmer in December and February.

The fact that the ECMWF and Joe Bastardi tend to agree and the GFS often struggles with long-term forecasts, it’s reasonable to think that Europe may very well see a fair share of winter.

But don’t bet the house on any one of these forecasts. All seasonal projections are fraught with plenty of uncertainty. The weather is always full of surprises.

Climate Scientist Karl Zeller Sums Up The ‘Discovery’ That Pressure, Not CO2, Determines Planets’ Temps

In an interview at the Porto Climate Conference earlier this month, Dr. Karl Zeller provided a brief overview of the theory he and Dr. Ned Nikolov developed. The model uses empirical NASA data to quantify the surface temperature of “all the planets across our solar system” precisely and accurately by using two values only: (1) distance from the Sun and (2) atmospheric pressure. The gaseous composition of planetary atmospheres – including CO2 concentration – is immaterial to the calculations, as CO2 is “just like any other gas”.

Interviewer: You were saying that you and [Dr.] Ned Nikolov have a new theory.  Can you tell us just a bit about that?

KZ: “Well, we actually call it a discovery.  And what we did is we took NASA data and we applied the engineering principle of dimensional analysis – Buckingham pi theorem for you engineers. And to make a long story short, we’ve had an unbelievable fit to the NASA data, where we’ve had an exponential regression line (an empirical equation, so to speak) that explains the temperature of all the planets across our solar system – that actually includes the Earth.   We can actually use planets other than the Earth.”

“And we can calculate Earth’s temperature without knowing anything else about Earth [other than its atmospheric pressure value and distance from the Sun]. . . within a degree Centigrade.  The amazing thing about that is [1] the Earth[‘s atmosphere] is [21%] oxygen and [78%] nitrogen, [2] Venus is [96.5%] carbon dioxide, [3] Mars is [95%] carbon dioxide, [4] Triton is [>99%] nitrogen, [5] Titan is [98.4%] nitrogen and [1.6%] methane . . .”

Interviewer: So you’re saying that actually carbon dioxide is not the driver [of planetary temperatures]?

KZ: “Carbon dioxide is just like any other gas.  Just like the ideal gas law, Boyle’s law, Charles’s law, Gay-Lussac’s law.  Carbon dioxide isn’t any different than any other gas in those laws.  And we’ve discovered that there’s a continuum across our solar system of the way atmosphere’s work: it’s strictly a function – the warmth that we experienceis due to two things: [1] distance from the Sun (which means how much solar energy we get), and [2] the amount of atmosphere we have, the atmospheric pressure that we experience here on the surface.”

Interviewer: And how was that [discovery] received?  Did you have the IPCC call you up and say “Wow, this is fantastic!”?

KZ: “We had to change our names to get the first paper [Volokin and Rellez, 2014] published.  It was returned [after the first attempt] because they knew who we were.  And the second time we published it we were required to pull it after they found out we had . . . [smiling] we spelled our names backwards.  It [spelling our names backwards] worked the first time, and it worked the second time [after we resubmitted it], but it was put on the internet before it was hard-copied.  A ‘climate denier’* from WattsUpWithThat [Willis Eschenbach] turned us in.  And so we experienced that, not only the so-called normal people, ‘warmists’, maybe . . . and a lot of ‘climate deniers’ do not like our work.  A lot of ‘climate deniers’ hold out for a little bit of a role with carbon dioxide.”

Interviewer: So in fact you’re saying there’s no opportunity for scientific inquiry anymore.

KZ: “Sure seems that way.  We’ve actually extended it now.  We’ve actually used some of the same principles to explain some of the past climate measurements that we’ve made here on Earth.  Same thing – pressure is the driver.  Pressure and the Sun.”

*The term “climate denier” is offensive no matter who it is applied to (i.e., Willis Eschenbach should not be referred to as such), and is not endorsed here.


To review the full paper, see Nikolov and Zeller, 2017

Images from the N&Z presentation at the Rome Climate Conference (2017)

Geologists: No Link Between Climate Warming And Rock Slides in European Alps!

Climate alarmists rush to blame every natural disaster on global warming. Recently they blamed a massive rock slide in Switzerland on a warming planet. Yet, geologists say there’s no link.

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.

Last year, August, 2017, a massive rockslide occurred on the north flank of the Piz Cengalo (3369 m) in the Swiss Alps, above the village of Bondo, located near the border to Italy.

Thanks to an early warning system, no one in the village of Bondo below was killed. However the impressive rock slide did claim the lives of 8 climbers.

No data suggesting warming is behind rock slides

In total some 4 million tonnes of rock and mud came tumbling down. The dramatic incident highlighted the hazards posed by rock slides for villages located near the picturesque mountains of the European Alps.

Though rockslides are not unusual, there has been growing scrutiny behind their causes lately. Unsurprisingly climate alarmists are opportunistically pointing the finger at climate warming.

According to the alarmists, rising temperatures are causing the permafrost in the mountains to thaw and so lead to portions of the mountains coming unglued and cascading dangerously down into the valleys and villages below.

The Swiss SRF public broadcasting reported here how Swiss Minister of Environment Doris Leuthard came up with the explanation just hours after the incident: “Climate change”.

According to Leuthard: “Such incidents will continue to occur.”

No link to warming – tend to occur in cold, rainy weather

However, one expert geologist disagrees, the SRF reports: University of Bern geologist Ueli Gruner told the SRF:

No relationship between heat and rock slides can be made – in colder and wet weather there can tend to be even more rockslides.”

According to Gruner, large rock slides (more than 1 million cubic meters) tend to occur every 5 to 10 years. The SRF reports that so far no data supporting a higher frequency of rock slides are available.

The SRF adds:

However, heat fundamentally even has a positive effect, says the geologist [Gruner): From experience, stone behaves in a more stable manner than when it’s cold, snow melts and rain enters into the cracks.”

Recent Findings: Austrian Glacier Extent Over Most Of The Past 10,000 Years Less Than Today!

Climate change in Austria: Alpine glaciers thousands of years ago smaller than today

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

In 1998 there were 925 glaciers and large ice masses in Austria with an area of 1 hectare or more, in total 453 square kilometers. Fifty percent of the Austrian glacier area are found in the Ötztal Alps and Venice Alps groups.

All measured glaciers in Austria have significantly lost area and volume in the period since 1980. For example, in the southern Ötztal Alps, the largest contiguous glacier area in Austria, glacier area decreased from 144.2 km² in 1969 to 126.6 km² in 1997 and 116.1 km² in 2006 (APCC 2014).

Post Little Ice Age

Previously, in the 1960s and 1970s, considerable glacial advances had occurred in Austria for a few years (Fig. 1). Over the long run, however, there has been a marked melting trend over the last century and a half. This loss of ice fits well with the rise in temperature during the rewarming since the end of the Little Ice Age.

Figure 1: Annual ice mass balances 1952-2011. Negative values ​​mean ice melt, positive values ​​mark ice gains, 1952-2011. Source: APCC 2014 as to Fischer et al. (2012).

However, the longer-term climate context is also important. 1000 years ago – at the time of the Medieval Warm Period – many Alpine glaciers were as small as they are today. In the transition over to the Little Ice Age, the glaciers in the Alps grew strongly, and reached their greatest extent for the past 10,000 years.

At the end of the Little Ice Age, the glaciers started to melt again, and this continues today. In the Swiss glaciers this has led to the frequent finding of tree remnants from the time of 1000 years A.D., i.e. the Medieval Warm Period. Obviously parts of today’s glacial areas were forested during the times of strong glacier retreat.

Much of the Holocene saw less glaciers in Alps than today

Another more intensive melting phase had already occurred 8000 to 4000 years ago during the so-called Holocene Warm Period when many glaciers were smaller than they are today (Fig. 2).

At the Gepatschferner, the treeline back then was considerably higher than today. There glacier advances and retreats occurred in cycles over the past 4000 years (Nicolussi & Kerschner 2014). The Austrian Expert Report on Climate Change 2014 summarized the pre-industrial glacier lengths in Austria as follows (APCC 2014, Volume 2, Chapter 2):

The glaciers in the Alpine region during the last 11,000 years [Holocene] have been characterized by long periods of comparatively small size in the early and middle Holocene (up to 4,000 years ago) and multiple, far reaching advances, which culminated in the largest glaciers in the “Little Ice Age” (about 1260 to 1860 AD). Today’s glacier extents are repeatedly less or more than in the Early and Middle Holocene.”

Figure 2: Years before 2000 AD. The blue bars mark the times when many alpine glaciers were less than today. Shown are data based on tree rings and C14 dating. Chart changed as to APCC 2014.

NOAA: “No Compelling Evidence” Behind Claims Of More Hurricane Landfalls!

Despite all the signals being sent from every direction suggesting global warming is leading to more frequent and intense hurricanes, even the warmist NOAA is forced to confess that this has not been the long-term case.

About the claims of more hurricanes? Well, the NOAA says: wait another 30 to 50 years!

Sorry alarmists, but the data simply just don’t show it. That#s what the NOAA concludes.

We climate realists/non-alarmists suggest you come to terms with that inconvenient fact and learn to live with this good news.

But don’t despair too much. The NOAA insists that an increase “should” happen – later in the second half of the century.

Hat-tip: Dr. Ryan Maue at Twitter

What follows is the NOAA Part E Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming from Section 2, which is on long-term trends in number of storms (emphasis added).

E. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic.

While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups.

Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.)

However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).

We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, and medium confidence that they will be more intense (higher peak winds and lower central pressures) on average.

In our view, it is uncertain how the annual number of Atlantic tropical storms will change over the 21st century. All else equal, tropical cyclone surge levels should increase with sea level rise as projected for example by IPCC AR5. These assessment statements are intended to apply to climate warming of the type projected for the 21st century by prototype IPCC mid-range warming scenarios, such as A1B or RCP4.5.

The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to our tropical cyclone projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence on tropical cyclones at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature.”

The NOAA also provides a chart of hurricane activity that goes back to 1850 (but ends at 2006):

Nothing beyond natural variability and climate cycles is detectable, the NOAA concludes. Readers should note that there was not one single major hurricane land fall in the US from 2006 – 2016. Chart NOAA.

No “compelling evidence”

Part B of Section 2 of the NOAA’s Global Warming and Hurricanes – An Overview of Current Research Results comes to the conclusion:

While there have been increases in U.S. landfalling hurricanes and basin-wide hurricane counts since the since the early 1970s, Figure 4 shows that these recent increases are not representative of the behavior seen in the century long records. In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”

A Dismaying New Study Finds Bat Habitat Loss Extends ‘At Least 1000 Meters From A Wind Turbine’

Contending that “the current situation is particularly worrying”, authors of a troubling new paper assert that the bat habitat loss fomented by the presence of wind turbines is so pervasive that bat activity continues to decline precipitously from a range of  “at least 1000 meters from a wind turbine”.  

Image Source: Millon et al., 2018

Wind turbines negatively affect the well-being of nearby human populations

It is well established that situating wind turbines near human populations has a “significant negative and sizable effect on life satisfaction” and well-being (Krekel and Zerrahn, 2017).  This harm can affect households as far as 4,000 meters away from a wind turbine.

“We show that the construction of wind turbines close to households exerts significant negative external effects on residential well-being … In fact, beyond unpleasant noise emissions (Bakker et al., 2012; McCunney et al., 2014) and impacts on wildlife (Pearce-Higgins et al., 2012; Schuster et al., 2015), most importantly, wind turbines have been found to have negative impacts on landscape aesthetics (Devine-Wright, 2005; Jobert et al., 2007; Wolsink, 2007). … We show that the construction of a wind turbine within a radius of 4,000 metres has a significant negative and sizable effect on life satisfaction. For larger radii, no negative externalities can be detected.”  (Krekel and Zerrahn, 2017)

The critical role of bats in natural ecosystems

Bat species can be found dwelling in a wide variety of terrestrial habitats, including deserts and along sea coasts. Each bat species may play a fundamental role in the local ecosystem.

For example, Kuntz et al., (2011) indicate that 528 different plant species rely on bat pollination and seed dispersal for sustainability.

Boyles et al., (2011) estimated that by controlling pest populations (insects), the agricultural benefits of bats may reach $22.9 billion (U.S.D.) annually in the continental U.S. alone.

A 20-fold loss of bat habitat at sites where wind turbines are located

Last March a scientific paper was published in the journal Ecological Engineering documenting the profound loss of bat habitat use at locations where wind turbines have been installed.

Not only is mortality due to collision endangering rare bat species, but the mere existence of wind turbines at previously undisturbed sites may have the effect of reducing bat activity (i.e., flying passes) twenty-fold, effectively despoiling bat habitats.  This phenomenon is reportedly occurring on a “worldwide” scale.

Wind turbines impact bat activity, leading to high losses of habitat use … The result of the study demonstrates a large effect on bat habitat use at wind turbines sites compared to control sites. Bat activity was 20 times higher at control sites compared to wind turbine sites, which suggests that habitat loss is an important impact to consider in wind farm planning. …  Here, we provide evidence showing that two genera of insectivorous bat species are also threatened by wind farms.  … To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies quantifying the indirect negative impact of wind turbines on bat activity in the tropics. … The lower attractiveness of the foraging habitat under wind turbines, both in a tropical and in a temperate climate, indicates that the indirect impact of wind turbine is a worldwide phenomenon.” (Millon et al., 2018)

Bat populations at risk for extinction due to wind turbine installation

In addition to White Nose Syndrome, deaths  connected to collisions with wind turbines are now the leading cause of multiple mortality events in bats (O’Shea et al., 2016).

Roughly 25% of North American bats are now classified at risk for extinction (Hammerson et al, 2017) in large part due to the explosion of wind turbines across the landscape.

If the expansion of wind turbines continues at its current pace, the hoary bat population is projected to be reduced by 90% (Frick et al., 2017) within the next 50 years.

As Hein and Schirmacher (2016) conclude, the “current and presumed future level of fatality [for bat populations] is considered to be unsustainable.”

New paper quantifies the “worrying” range of wind turbine-induced bat habitat loss

In a new paper published in the journal Biological Conservation, French ecologists provide quantification for the range of habitat loss caused by the installation of wind turbines at locations where high bat activity exists.

The dispiriting results indicate that the radius for the loss of habitat due to wind turbine presence may extend at least 1,000 meters from each individual wind turbine.

Even more troubling, 89% of NW France’s 909 wind turbines assessed for the study are currently located less than 200 meters from natural bat habitats, implicating France’s complicity in habitat despoliation.

As Barré et al., 2018 conclude, “there is an urgent need to assess the potential decrease in bat activity close to wind turbines.”


Barré et al., 2018

Estimating habitat loss due to wind turbine avoidance
by bats: Implications for European siting guidance

• “Wind energy is rapidly growing as a renewable source of energy but is not neutral for wildlife, especially bats. Whereas most studies have focused on bat mortality through collision, very few have quantified the loss of habitat use resulting from the potential negative impact of wind turbines.”
• “We quantified the impact of wind turbines at different distances on the activity of 11 bat taxa and 2 guilds. … We found a significant negative effect of proximity to turbines on activity for 3 species (Barbastella barbastellus, Nyctalus leisleiri, Pipistrellus pipistrellus), 2 species-groups (Myotis spp., Plecotus spp.) and 2 guilds (fast-flying and gleaner).”
• “The current situation is particularly worrying, with 89% of 909 turbines established in a region that does not comply with recommendations, which themselves are far from sufficient to limit the loss of habitat use.”
• “[T]here is an urgent need to assess the potential decrease in bat activity close to wind turbines in order to quantify the changes of habitat use and the distance of impact. This possible underestimated impact of wind turbines could constitute an important concern, affecting population dynamics with a loss of habitat availability (Rodrigues et al., 2015).”
• “[F]or most species, the negative effect of wind turbines on activity extends at least 1000 m from a wind turbine. The lost activity was therefore likely underestimated and occurred at > 1000 m. … Bat activity within 1000 m of wind turbines by gleaners and fast-flying bats is reduced by 53.8% and 19.6%, respectively.”
• “Thus, the percentage of lost activity was high, even at long-distances: for instance, at 500 m from the nearest turbine, we detected activity losses of 57% and 77% for P. pipistrellus and the gleaner species guild, respectively.”
• “Among the 909 wind turbines in northwest France, which contained the studied farms, 89% were established at < 200 m from any type of wooded edges (forest or hedgerows).”

New Study: German Mid-Sized E-Cars Produce Less CO2 Than Diesel Autos – But Only After 585,000 Kilometers!

The German ADAC association, the equivalent of America’s AAA, carried a CO2 comparison for a variety e-autos and combustion engine cars. The results were very surprising, says German magazine Autobild here.

Today electric cars are being pushed as a clean and environmentally friendly alternative, while diesel and gasoline burning engines are being villainized as polluters and climate killers. In their comparison, however, the ADAC came up with some unexpected results. CO2 cars indeed have huge CO2 footprints.

The ADAC reminds that energy does not only get used while driving the vehicle, but also for their manufacture and later for their recycling and supply of fuel.

Manufacture, recycling produce high CO2

According to the ADAC, the manufacture of the electric car’s battery requires a considerable amount of energy, which has a considerable impact on its overall CO2 budget over its lifetime.

The ADAC compared cars from three different segments to find out if electric cars are really more climate friendly: The overall result:

General conclusions are not possible. But: electric cars in Germany today are already in many cases a good environmentally friendly choice. However, they could have a much better CO2 balance if they used exclusively renewable electricity.”

So far Germany’s power grid still relies heavily on fossil fuels.

ADAC looked at diesel, gasoline, natural gas, hybrids, e-cars and others over the range from compact to large sizes cars from a wide variety of manufacturers. It compared the cars after 150,000 km using the German power supply mix of 2013, which had a renewable energy share of 23%. (Today renewable energies have a share of 33%, which would improve the result of the e-cars somewhat).

E-cars just don’t travel that far in their lifetime

The ADAC found that only compact electric cars had the best CO2 budget at 22.5 tonnes of CO2, while gasoline powered cars yielded 30 tonnes. For the next bigger class of cars, called small cars, electric cars still came out ahead, “but only when using the optimistic 150,000 total travel distance.” Less than that, however, they were in fact dirtier.
Note that electric cars traveling 150,000 km are rare, if they exist at all. Renewing the batteries would also mean a further CO2 budget setback.

The ADAC calls the results of their comparison “surprising”.

Autobild reports: “The reality, however, is that small e-cars are often used as a second car or a car for the city. At 50,000 km of driving an e-car cannot compensate the high CO2 emissions for manufacturing, recycling and power provision.”

Upper midsize: e-car worthwhile only after 585,000 km

In other words, with Germany’s current electric power supply mix, even small e-cars still have a greater CO2 budget than diesel powered ones of the same class for longer lifetime distances.

German “Autobild” magazine adds:

Surprising results in the upper mid-class cars: Here diesel produces the best result with 33 tonnes of CO2 over 150,000 km! Because the e-car produces so much CO2 (41 tonnes CO2) for the manufacture of the batteries and recycling, they would first be worthwhile only after 580,000 km compared to diesel engine cars.”

So what’s the take home message? If you’re concerned about CO2 warming the planet, then purchase a diesel engine car.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Accelerating Since 2012 …Ship Of Fools II Abandons Publicity Expedition

Schneefan (Snow Fan) at German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here recently posted an overview of Arctic sea ice. This summer as well has Arctic sea ice refused to obey all the claims of melting.

Source: DMI plot sea ice cover.

Sea ice increase accelerating

The above chart shows August mean Arctic sea ice area in million square meters from 1979 to 2018 (red curve). There’s been a positive linear trend since 2007.

Moreover, the upward linear trend has even sharpened since 2012 (green lines) since Al Gore and Peter Wadhams made their absurd projections there would be an ice-free Arctic by now.

Kirye at KiryeNet here shows that current Arctic sea ice volume for mid September remains at the center of the pack, and thus no sign of short-term dwindling Arctic sea ice:

Chart: KiryeNet

The Northwest Passage this year as well was continuously blocked by ice and thus impassable for the entire year.

Yacht ignored warnings, got crushed

But some refused to believe the ice was not melting. For example German Yacht Online here reported how a crew on the yacht “Anahita” had ignored warnings of the Canadian Coast Guard and tried to cross the Passage. By late August the yacht ended up getting crushed by sea ice and sank within minutes. The 2-man crew was forced to escape on the ice by foot and were later airlifted to safety by helicopter.

According to Yacht online: “The ‘Anahita’ was one of a dozen other yachts on the way from the east to the west through the Northwest Passage. However this summer the sea ice in the Arctic remained tenacious.”

Ship of Fools II

Also a group of publicity seeking climate activists on Russian ice breaker/expedition ship ‘Akademik Ioffe’ were forced to move their starting point about 1000 km to the south to Kugaaruk. Just hours after starting on August 24, 2018, the vessel “ran aground on an uncharted shoal” and all passengers had to be rescued.

The trip was supposed to focus the world’s attention on global warming and “disappearing” Arctic sea ice. However, the expedition ended up being an embarrassment and ironically showed the opposite: the Arctic still had quite some ways to go before becoming ice-free.

Ioffe

The conditions the Northwest Passage Project crew were hoping for, but never became the case. Ice breaker/expedition ship Akademik Ioffe. Photo: The Northwest Passage Project

All passengers on the Akademik Ioffe were safely transferred to shore and returned home, the site informs.

“Uncharted geologic feature”

According to the website, the expedition was abandoned because the Akademik Ioffe needed repair after it had run aground and been refloated.

The expedition itself insisted the mission was not curtailed due to ice conditions and instead blamed “an uncharted geologic feature”. But why would a ship need to enter an uncharted area? Maybe because ice was blocking the usual route?

Today “Akademik Ioffe“ is back on the way to Les Mechins, Quebec from Kugaaruk and the expedition is postponed to summer 2019.

Chart: Marine Tracker.

New Study: Sea Level Rise Doesn’t ‘Spell Doom’ – Little To No Loss Of Coastal Wetlands Projected By 2100

Another new false-alarm paper reveals that coastal wetlands may not only persist well into the 21st century despite present rates of sea level rise, but the coasts may expand and even prosper due to the natural ability for soil to “build up vertically by sediment accretion”.  

Headline/image source: Sciencenews.org

“Coasts are growing all over the world”

Two years ago, a ground-breaking paper was published in the journal Nature Climate Change indicating that the Earth’s shorelines have been growing overall since the mid-1980s (Donchyts et al., 2016).

In other words, because “coasts are growing all over the world”, there is more land area above sea level today than there was 30 years ago.

This conclusion has again been confirmed by a new paper (Luijendijk et al., 2018) that indicates only 24% of the world’s beach shorelines are eroding, whereas 76% of the world’s beach shorelines are either growing (28%) or stable (48%).

Supposedly “vulnerable” Pacific islands are expanding 

Hisabayashi et al., 2018 found that 15 of 28 studied atoll islands in the southwest Pacific grew in shoreline area during 2005 to 2015.

Kench et al., 2018 examined “101 islands in Tuvalu over the past four decades (1971–2014)”, a period in which local sea level has risen at twice the global average.  They found a “land area increase in eight of nine atolls.”

“Surprisingly, we show that all islands have changed and that the dominant mode of change has been island expansion, which has increased the land area of the nation. … Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average [<2 mm/yr-1] (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr−1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls.” (Kench et al., 2018)

Coastal marsh area has been stable or expanding

Kirwan et al., 2016 reported that coastal marshes and their “vulnerable” ecosystems are not only persisting despite present-day sea level rise, coastal marsh area has generally been stable or expanding.

In fact, it was claimed that sea level rise rates of 10-50 mm/yr (1 to 5 meters per century) during the 21st century would not be substantial enough to submerge the globe’s coastal marshes.

“Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland. … In summary, dynamic models of marsh vertical accretion indicate that marshes will generally survive relative SLR rates of 10–50 mm yr−1 during the twenty-first century, depending on tidal range and suspended sediment availability.” (Kirwan et al., 2016)

Coastal wetlands may not be threatened by sea level rise

Adding yet another layer to the strengthening conclusion that global sea levels aren’t rising fast enough to “spell doom” to “vulnerable” coastal ecosystems and communities, Schuerch et al. (2018) find that the natural ability of coastal wetlands to “build up vertically by sediment accretion” could potentially lead to “wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area“.

More and more, scientists are undercutting alarmist proclamations of catastrophic 21st century sea level rise brought on by anthropogenic global warming.


Rising sea levels don’t have to spell doom for the world’s coastal wetlands. A new study suggests salt marshes and other wetlands could accumulate soil quickly enough to avoid becoming fully submerged — if humans are willing to give them a little elbow room. … The new study builds on previous work that suggests rising seas will increase sediment buildup in some parts of coastal wetlands. This increased sediment, as well as human adaptations to allow wetlands to move inland as the seas rise, could allow the coastal fringes to not only survive but to increase their global area by as much as 60 percent.” (Sciencenews press release for Schuerch et al., 2018)

On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels.”
[M]ost large-scale assessments have overestimated the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to SLR [present-day sea level rise]. These differences highlight a major knowledge gap in our understanding of the responses of coastal wetland areas to global environmental change. It has been argued that the reason for the observed discrepancy is that large-scale assessments have so far failed to consider the well understood biophysical feedback mechanisms that are typically included in local-scale models. These mechanisms include the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, which is enhanced with increasing inundation heights and frequencies, triggered, for example, by accelerating SLR [present-day sea level rise], and which enables coastal wetlands to persist or even prosper with SLR [present-day sea level rise].”
[W]e project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.”
“[O]ur calibrated model, which includes mangroves as well as tidal salt and freshwater marshes, correctly predicts observations of present-day vertical wetland change, obtained from large meta-datasets from all over the world (Crosby et al., 2016; Kirwan et al., 2016; Lovelock et al., 2015), for 78% of all coastal areas where data are currently available (N=46).”

Wild Claims In Wake of Hurricane Florence…And The Media Bad Weather Exaggeration Awards

Scroll down to see some Media Bad Weather Exaggeration Award winners…

In the wake of Florence, climate ambulance chasers have been making wild exaggerations and claims.

WaPo Weirding

For example, the Washington Post editorial board claimed President Trump and climate change deniers were “complicit” in Florence because they play down humans role in increasing the risks our obstruction of addressing those risks.

Of course this is just the latest pathetic effort to criminalize climate science dissenters.

CNN fake news again

Meanwhile CNN even claimed there’s been a 40% increase in extreme storms since 1950, hat-tip Ryan Maue, who commented:

In a nutshell, climate alarmists will say anything, no matter how absurd, to make the junk science look real. It’s time to come to terms with the reality that the mainstream media often deceives the public.

Media silent on “complicit” in hurricane disintegration

If climate skeptics are complicit in Florence, then on the other side of the coin skeptics also have to be responsible for the hurricanes that fizzle out.

At Friday’s Daily Update, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi posed a question to the climate ambulance chasers and folks at the Washington Post: “How come Florence didn’t intensify more? How come Isaac is falling apart at the heart of the hurricane season? […] How come everything is dying? There’s so much more than just simplistic arguments that are done for agendas.”

Media totally AWOL as Isaac and Joyce dissipate. Chart: Weatherbell Analytics.

Often things just don’t work out the way the alarmists would like them to. And so they need to resort to less than honest tactics to convey drama over to the audiences.

2018 Media Weather Exaggeration Award

Bad weather reporting has recently seen a series of blatant exaggerations aimed at making viewers think things are much worse than they really are.

This year’s 2018 Media Bad Weather Exaggeration Award has to go to Hurricane Florence reporter Mike Seidel below of The Weather Channel:

His projectile stunt also didn’t go very well.

Previous winners

And what follows are winners from previous years. Of course this is not to say that extreme weather can be taken lightly. But it would be nice if reporters stayed accurate. Their credibility is already pretty ruined and such antics don’t help.

One blooper comes from an MSNBC reporter covering the extreme conditions from tropical storm Hanna back in 2008:

 

What follows is my favorite, Hurricane Irene in 2011:

 

Next is Ryan Maue’s favorite — well, at least it’s one he brought up recently. In October, 2005, reporter Michelle Kosinski is using a canoe when a regular pair of rubber boots would have sufficed. Can we believe anything we see on our screens?

 

Right on par with Michelle Kozinski’s stagecraft is ABC’s Lucy Yang’s fake deep water after heavy rains in New Jersey, 2010:

 

It’s got to be frustrating when people totally ruin your dramatic story of danger and peril. The next video is of Hurricane Sandy in Atlantic City, New Jersey, 2012…CNN embarrassed again:

 

Finally, Anthony Watts presents here Anderson Cooper’s tactic used to fake deep flood water.

Florence Water Vapor Weight Falling As Rain Over Carolinas DOUBLES The CO2 Man Emits Globally…In Entire Year!

Florence shows that atmospheric water vapor dwarfs human emissions of trace gas CO2.

To put some perspective on the scale of water vapor and trace gas CO2 in our atmosphere, let’s compare the two in terms of rainfall from Hurricane Florence alone over the Carolinas and surrounding area.

Surely with man’s fossil fuel profligacy, the emitted CO2 must by far outweigh the water vapor associated with a single storm.

18 trillion gallons of rain

According to hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue, some 18 trillion gallons of water vapor could fall as rain from Hurricane Florence over the Carolinas’ region:

To better imagine the scale of this, that’s roughly 2400 one-gallon milk jugs for every man, woman and child on the planet.

70 billion metric tonnes

18 trillion gallons is roughly 70 trillion kg of water mass, which is 70 billion metric tonnes of water vapor in the atmosphere which will end up getting dumped on a few states over a few days by Florence.

Double the weight of human CO2 emissions in one year

How does this compare to human CO2 emissions into the atmosphere?

Globally and ANNUALLY, man emits about 36 billion metric tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. That means the water vapor falling as rain over the Carolinas’ region from Florence is double the weight of CO2 man emits into the atmosphere in an entire YEAR.

Human CO2 amounts pales in comparison to the daily global water vapor variations the planet sees. Clearly water vapor dwarfs CO2 in the atmosphere. Claiming that CO2 is the main driver is as silly as claiming President Trump is complicit in creating Florence.

Inconvenient!…Real Observed Data Demolish Alarmist Claims Of Strengthening, More Frequent Hurricanes

Nowadays the usual suspects are busily peddling the idea that Hurricane Florence’s intensity is due to climate change.

For example climate activist Stefan Rahmstorf of the alarmist Potsdam Institute blames Florence on global warming, telling the online Potsdamer Nachrichten (PNN) here: “In fact many of the strongest storms we have ever seen have occurred in the past years.”

Alarmist claims go down in flames

The German media and climate science establishment are out in full force implying recent hurricanes are mostly manmade and getting stronger and more frequent.

However, just as Kenneth Richard showed yesterday by presenting more than a dozen recent papers, when we look at the observed data, all these alarmist claims go down in flames.

Observed data refute alarmist/activist scientists

Firstly, climate ambulance chasing scientists, such as Messieurs Stefan Rahmstorf and Dim Coucou, like pretending storms are intensifying due to manmade global warming. Yet two days ago I tweeted a table showing that 75% of the most powerful hurricanes impacting the US actually happened before 1970, a time when CO2 was at supposedly safe levels:

Although some people may think Florence is a major hurricane, it in fact made landfall as a Category 1 storm only – a far cry from the Category 4 many were warning us about just days ago — e.g. Erik Holthaus.

Hurricane number and strength not up

Prof. Philip Klotzbach recently tweeted two charts depicting the number of US landfalling hurricanes (Category 1-5) and major hurricanes (Category 3-5). If you’re a climate alarmist, then you may want to first take a seat before reading further:

Source: Klotzbach et al 2018

According to Klotzbach, “Since 1900 neither observed CONUS [Continental United States] landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity show significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season.”

An unprecedented major hurricane absence

What is unprecedented is the long 12-year period from 2005 to 2017 which saw not a single major hurricane hitting the US. This is probably the most devastating and frustrating fact for the global warming ambulance chasers. That’s a glaring statistic that’s impossible to alter.

Western North Pacific cyclone frequency down 25%

The story is much the same in the North Western Pacific, where the following chart shows us cyclone frequency has been much lower over the past two decades compared to the two decades prior.

Source: Zhao et al, 2018

And using the data from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), skeptic blogger Kirye also tweeted that the number of typhoons being formed has declined modestly over the years:

Number of typhoons on the decline. Source: Kirye.

Hooligan storms

Cyclone bedwetters have even suggested that Florence’s odd track and stall at the Carolina coast is also a sign of climatatic weirding. Yet, weird storm tracks have always occurred and Florence is just run of the mill. For example, check out Typhoon Wayne back in 1986, which ran amok across the Western Pacific like a drunken hooligan:


Source: https://maps.wunderground.com/blog/

New Science Says Hurricane Frequencies Are Declining, Yet U.S. Media Blame ‘Climate Deniers’ For Florence

The peer-reviewed scientific literature robustly affirms that land-falling hurricane frequencies and intensities have remained steady or declined in recent decades.  So have droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events.  But the editorial board of The Washington Post spurns this scientific evidence and inexplicably blames politicians and “those who deny” climate change for landfalling hurricanes and the associated damage. 

Image Source: The Washington Post 11/09/2018

It is well documented in the scientific literature that a cooler climate is associated with more weather extremes and hurricane activity, whereas a warmer climate leads to a reduction in weather extremes and hurricane activity.


“Recent review papers reported that many high-resolution global climate models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate. (Sugi et al., 2015)
Our work illustrates a major constraint on the large-scale global atmospheric engine: As the climate warms, the system may be unable to increase its total entropy production enough to offset the moistening inefficiencies associated with phase transitions. This suggests thatin a future climate, the global atmospheric circulation might comprise highly energetic storms due to explosive latent heat release, but in such a case, the constraint on work output identified here will result in fewer numbers of such [highly energetic storm] events. … On a warming Earth, the increase in perceptible water has been identified as a reason for the tropical overturning to slow down,  and studies over a wide range of climates suggest that global atmospheric motions are reduced in extremely warm climates.  (Laliberté et al., 2015)
“Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high impact weather over the mid-latitudes. With increasing greenhouse gases, enhanced high-latitude warming will lead to weaker cyclone activity. Here we show that between 1979 and 2014, the number of strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere in summer has decreased at a rate of 4% per decade, with even larger decrease found near northeastern North America.” (Chang et al., 2016)
The impact of climate change is seen in slightly decreased intensities in landfalling cyclones.” (Perrie et al., 2010)

The Washington Post editorial board has apparently decided that contrarian scientific evidence is subservient to their political aims.

This way they can justify blaming out-of-favor politicians and those who “deny” climate change for the devastating consequences of an impending landfalling hurricane.

Below are several scientific papers published within the last year that do not seem to support the Post’s angle that says we can reduce hurricane landfall frequencies if only we can agree to believe, rather than deny, that humans are responsible.


“Downward Trend Since 1950” In Landfalling Hurricane Frequency/Intensity


Truchelut and Staeling, 2018 

“The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season concluded an extended period of quiescent continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that began in 2006, commonly referred to as the landfall drought. We introduce an extended climatology of U.S. tropical cyclone activity based on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and use this data set to investigate variability and trends in landfall activity. The [hurricane landfall] drought years between 2006 and 2016 recorded an average value of total annual ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] over the U.S. that was less than 60% of the 1900–2017 average.”
“Scaling this landfall activity metric by basin-wide activity reveals a statistically significant downward trend since 1950, with the percentage of total Atlantic ACE expended over the continental U.S. at a series minimum during the recent drought period.”

Klotzbach et al., 2018

“Continental United States (CONUS) hurricane-related inflation-adjusted damage has increased significantly since 1900. However, since 1900 neither observed CONUS [Continental United States] landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity show significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season.”


Zhang et al., 2018     

Over the 1997–2014 period, the mean frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) was markedly lower (~18%) than the period 1980–1996. Here we show that these changes were driven by an intensification of the vertical wind shear in the southeastern/eastern WNP tied to the changes in the Walker circulation, which arose primarily in response to the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Atlantic, while the SST anomalies associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the tropical Pacific and the anthropogenic forcing play only secondary roles.”

Zhao et al., 2018

“A vigorous debate has currently focused on the relationship between increasing TC [tropical cyclone] activity and increasing SST [sea surface temperatures] (Knutson et al. 2010). … [O]ver the WNP [Western North Pacific] basin,a significant decrease of TCF [tropical cyclone frequency] has been observed since 1998 (Liu and Chan 2013; Lin and Chan 2015; Zhao and Wang 2016). Global TCF [tropical cyclone frequency] has showed a similar reduction since the late 1990s (Maue 2011). Change of TCF over the past few decades does not appear to be consistent with changes in local SST. Observational analyses further pointed out that there is no significant correlation between the TCF [tropical cyclone frequency] and local SST [sea surface temperatures] over the WNP  [Western North Pacific] basin (Chan 2006; Yeh et al. 2010).”


Heller, 2017

“The hurricane analysis conducted by Burn and Palmer (2015) determined that hurricane activity was subdued during the [warm] Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~900-1350 CE) and became more produced during the [cold] Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1450-1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between ~1850 and ~1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (~1950-2000 CE). In general, the results of this study corroborate these findings.”
“[W]hile hurricane activity was greater during the LIA, it also had more frequent periods of drought compared to the MCA (Burn and Palmer 2014), suggesting that climate fluctuations were more pronounced in the LIA compared to the MCA. The changes in the diatom distribution and fluctuations in chl-a recorded in this study starting around 1350 also indicate that variations in climate have become more distinct during the LIA and from ~1850-1900. … [C]limate variability has increased following the onset of the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE), however it is difficult to distinguish the impacts of recent anthropogenic climate warming on hurricane activity from those of natural Atlantic climate regimes, such as ENSO.”

Wellford et al., 2017

Since the late 1800s, in contrast to much of the Southeastern USA, the Georgia coast has experienced infrequent hurricane landfalls, particularly in recent decades. As a result, coastal storm preparedness complacency appears to be rampant along the Georgia coastline. Both local and state governments were unprepared for shadow evacuation during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The study described here includes an examination of temporal and spatial trends in hurricane landfall along the Georgia coast from 1750 to 2012. Since 1750, 18 of the 24 recorded hurricanes that made landfall along the Georgia coast occurred between 1801 and 1900, yet the hurricane intensities have declined since 1851.”

No Increasing Trend In Drought/Flood Frequency, Severity


Guo et al., 2018

“In drought-prone regions like Central Asia, drought monitoring studies are paramount to provide valuable information for drought risk mitigation. In this paper, the spatiotemporal drought characteristics in Central Asia are analyzed from 1966 to 2015 using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasetCentral Asia showed an overall wetting trend with a switch to drying trend since 2003.”

Mangini et al., 2018

“The main objective of this paper is to detect the evidence of statistically significant flood trends across Europe using a high spatial resolution dataset. … Anticipated changes in flood frequency and magnitude due to enhanced greenhouse forcing are not generally evident at this time over large portions of the United States for several different measures of flood flows. … Thus, similarly to the main findings of Archfield et al. (2016) for the US, the picture of flood change in Europe is strongly heterogeneous and no general statements about uniform trends across the entire continent can be made.”

Zheng et al., 2018     

For the extreme drought and flood events in total, more frequent of them occurred in the 1770s and 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1920s and 1960s, among which the 1790s witnessed the highest frequency of extreme drought and flood events totally.”


Schedel, Jr. and Schedel, 2018    

Flood events on the U.S. East Coast are not more severe or frequent than in the past. However, because of sea-level rise, these events are starting from a higher baseline height. Thus, the same severity of a flood event today reaches a greater absolute height than an identical flood would have reached 50 or 100 years ago.Based on current data, the good news is that the apparent worsening of flood events is due to a single, primary cause: sea level rise. Flood events are not getting stronger or occurring more frequently than in the past. They are instead starting from a higher point, allowing them to reach higher levels more often. The bad news is that sea-level rise will be a fact of life for many years into the future. Communities need to start now to make informed plans and decisions about how best to adapt.”


Valdés-Manzanilla, 2018

“This study presents a chronology of historical and measured flood events in the Papaloapan River basin of Mexico during 450 years. Twenty-eight historical floods were recorded during the period 1550–1948 [7 per century] on this river and one flood event (1969) in the instrumental era (1949–2000) [2 per century], of which 14 were extraordinary floods and only 15 were catastrophic ones. There were several flood-rich decades during 1860–1870, 1880–1890, 1920–1930 and 1940–1950. Wavelet analysis found a significant flooding periodicity of 58 years. The wavelet coherence analysis found that flooding had an in-phase relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and also with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.”

Dobrovolný et al., 2018

“The new MJJ precipitation reconstruction is restricted to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability, which is in line with our understanding of natural precipitation variability. Reconstruction reveals two long periods of low precipitation variability, in the 13th–14th centuries and 1630s–1850s. It also demonstrates that precipitation anomalies of larger amplitude and longer duration occurred in the earlier part of the last millennium than those found in the instrumental period. Negative trends in soil moisture content and gradual changes in annual precipitation distribution leading to higher extremity of precipitation regime may be responsible for the lower sensitivity of oaks to precipitation after the 1980s. The new reconstruction does not indicate any exceptional recent decline in MJJ precipitation.”


Extreme, Unstable Weather Decreases With Warming


Zou et al., 2018

“The Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the world’s most sensitive areas to climate change, became significantly warmer during recent decades. Since 1960 (1980), storm (hail) days have been decreasing by 6.2%/decade (18.3%/decade) in the region.”
“Based on 53‐year continuous weather records at 48 TP stations and reanalysis data, we show here for the first time that the consistent decline of storm days is strongly related to a drier midtroposphere since 1960. Further analysis demonstrated that fewer hail days are driven by an elevation of the melting level (thermodynamically) and a weaker wind shear (dynamically) in a warming climate. These results imply that less storm and hail may occur over TP when climate warms.”

Zhang et al., 2017

Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.”

Chen et al., 2017

“Results indicate that the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia exhibits decadal changes in the period of 1979–2013 and is significantly weakened after early 1990s. …  Moreover, there is a close linkage between the weakening of cyclonic activity after the early 1990s and the nonuniform surface warming of the Eurasian continent.”
Significant warming to the west of Mongolia tends to weaken the north–south temperature gradient and the atmospheric baroclinicity to its south and eventually can lead to weakening of the midlatitude cyclone activity over East Asia.”

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