Where’s The Runaway Warming? No New Record Heat In 2015 – Despite Help From Strong El Niño

Original article in German here

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

It’s the end of the year tally at the DWD German Weather Service for 2015. In a press release the DWD reported on December 30, 2015:

2015 second warmest year in Germany – tied with 2000 and 2007

2015 in Germany saw a mean temperature of 9.9°C, thus – after the preliminary analysis of measurements taken from some 2000 surface stations belonging to the DWD – it is the second warmest year on record since measurements began in 1881, tied with 2000 and 2007. The temperature record of 2014 stands by a wide margin at 10.3°C. Moreover the past 12 months were also drier and sunnier than normal, the DWD reports.

In 2015, 10 of 12 months were warmer than normal. Only September and October came in below the multi-year mean. August was the second warmest and November and December were even the record warmest ever since 1881. In July and August extreme heat dominated Germany, and the Franconian town of Kitzingen measured 40.3 °C , setting a new Germany record high.”

What a disappointment. We were already looking forward to a new annual record – and then came the blow. Only the silver medal, and that shared with two other years. Theoretically 2015 got only one third of a silver medal.

Back on September 21, 2015, German public television ntv held out hope:

According to scientists 2015 could be the warmest year on record worldwide since measurements began 135 years ago. Also Germany could break a record. So far in the country 2014 has been the warmest, said the chairperson of the German meteorological Society (DMG), Gudrun Rosenhagen at the 10th German Climate Conference in Hamburg. And this year is well on the way to break the record.”

What a pity, Frau Rosenhagen. By the way we are still waiting for an answer to our question sent to the DMG (see “Answer requested: Is the solar trend in the statement released by the German Meteorological Society correct?“). In its press release the DWD claims that in 2015 ten of twelve months were warmer than the mean. We assume this is in comparison to the now obsolete and ancient 1961 to 1990 reference period. When using the more up-to-date 1981 to 2010 reference period, the number of warmer than normal months likely drops.

It also remains a mystery how Germany’s year 2000 managed to reach 2nd place. It was a rained out summer and public swimming pools saw very few swimmers. [The following video shows ARD television asking whatever had happened to the summer amid cold rainy weather]:


Thanks to Klima Manifest Heiligenroth

The DWD forgets to mention that over the past 15 years there has been no warming whatsoever. What follows are a number monthly mean temperature plots going back over the recent past. For whatever reason, what the DWD refuses to make public, is made public thanks to Josef Kowatsch. What follows are three examples of the development of monthly mean temperatures in Germany – based on the DWD’s own original data.

February Germany temperature plot since 1988:

July Germany mean temperature plot since 2000:

October mean temperature plot, last 16 years:

No global record

Also the global temperature failed to set a new record in 2015. The UAH measured figures show an extended global temperature pause. 2015 came in only in third place, as NASA satellite expert Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville documents here.

This makes 2015 the third warmest year globally (+0.27°C) in the satellite record (since 1979), well behind 1998 (+0.48 deg C) and 2010 (+0.34 deg. C).

That’s quite lousy for an El Niño year, which in mid 2015 the year was regarded as a candidate for a world record. Somehow the wind behind 2015 must have disappeared in the second half.

Temperature trend as to satellite measurements. Figure: Roy Spencer, UAH.

Moreover surface station datasets GISS and HadCRUT are in crisis. Over the past years they have interfered multiple times with the datasets and carried out a number of highly dubious corrections that make little sense. The data are now highly questionable, and alleged records are suspicious. Here there has to be and there will be consequences.

 

Engineering Basket Case: $250 Million Solar Impulse 2 Becomes Symbol Of “Green Delusionism”

Tony Thomas at The Spectator here has written an excellent summary on the Solar Impulse 2 plane and how the attempted journey around the world has gone so far. I’ve written on this before here, here and here.

If anything the $250 million dollar project has turned into nothing less than an engineering basket case, run by two men who seem to be in midlife crisis. How many simple schools could be built in Africa with that kind of money?

The Airbus A380 dimensioned solar-powered contraption has been grounded in Hawaii, some 10 months after it began its trip in Abu Dhabi last March. Notable comments by Thomas in the Spectator article:

The fuel-free plane was meant to show the delicious potential of clean solar energy, ‘therapy for the planet’ and a climate-change stopper, […]. The solar plane’s actually demonstrated the superiority of a few drums of avgas.”

and

It was held up at Nagoya for a month waiting for favorable winds, much like a 17th century galleon.

and

Piccard says, ‘What we have here is the future’.

That would be progress going backwards in high gear. Thomas reminds us early devices did the trip far more quickly: “The Graf Zeppelin in 21 days in 1929“, and “Someone could walk the plane’s route (somehow) in two years, not much longer than the flight time.”

Of course pilot and project pitchman Piccard does not see it that way, and promotes the months-long grounded plane as breakthrough technology:

If there ever was a symbol of green delusionism, Solar Impulse 2 is it.

 

A New Era? Current Solar Cycle “Abruptly Ended” Most Active Solar Activity Phase Since Observations Began In 1755

Solar activity in December

by Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

The central star of our solar system was quite inactive last month. The measured solar sunspot number (SSN) was 57.7.  That is only 79% of what is the average for this time point into a solar cycle compared to the mean of the 23 previous complete cycles. What follows is a comparison:

Figure 1: The current solar cycle 24 (red) in relation to the mean of all the other previous 23 solar cycles (blue), and to the very similar solar cycle no. 5, which ended in 1810.

For the complete years of the current cycle, a plot of the activity percentage with respect to the mean appears as follows:

Figure 2: Relative sunspot activity of each calendar year for solar cycle no. 24.

For the entire solar cycle so far (now 7 years and 1 month) the sun’s activity has reached only 56% of the mean solar cycle. The deviation from the mean for the accumulated sunspots of the individual cycles 7 years and one month into the cycle are plotted as follows:

Figure 3: The accumulated solar sunspot anomalies from the mean cycle (blue in Figure 1) for each cycle, 7 years and one month into the cycle.

It is clear to see that the phase between solar cycle no. 17 (started in 1933) and the end of solar cycle no. 23 in 2008 was the most active since systematic observations began. That phase was abruptly ended by the current cycle.

 

Japanese Expert Slams James Hansen / Climate Scientists, Calling Them “Lawbreakers In The Court Of Science”

There really are many scientists who dispute the alarmist conclusions of the climate scientists.

What follows is a scathing open letter from Japanese scientist and modeling expert Kyoji Kimoto to Dr. Syukuro Manabe, Dr. James Hansen and Dr. Robert Cess.
======================================

You are the lawbreakers in the court of science
by Kyoji Kimoto
9 January, 2016

Dear Dr. Syukuro Manabe, Dr. James Hansen and Dr. Robert Cess,

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory of the IPCC is based on Manabe & Wetherald (1967) and Hansen et al., (1981) which utilize one dimensional radiative convective equilibrium model (1DRCM) with the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2, obtaining the zero feedback climate sensitivity of 1.2-1.3K.

However it is theoretically meaningless when the parameter sensitivity analysis is applied to the lapse rate for 2xCO2 as shown here.

Hansen himself admitted that 1DRCM is a fudge in an interview with Spencer Weart held on 23 October, 2000 at NASA as shown below. Here Dr. Hansen and his colleagues are referring to a paper by W. C. Wang et al., 1976: “Greenhouse Effects due to Man-Made Perturbations of Trace Gases” Science 194, 685-690.

An excerpt from the interview:

Weart:

This was a radiative convective model, so where’s the convective part come in. Again, are you using somebody else’s…

Hansen:

That’s trivial. You just put in…

Weart:

… a lapse rate…

Hansen:

Yes. So it’s a fudge. That’s why you have to have a 3-D model to do it properly. In the 1-D model, it’s just a fudge, and you can choose different lapse rates and you get somewhat different answers. So you try to pick something that has some physical justification. But the best justification is probably trying to put in the fundamental equations into a 3-D model.

See more: https://www.aip.org/history-programs/niels-bohr-library/oral-histories/24309-1

Cess made a mathematical error in Cess (1976), Cess et al., (1989) and Cess et al., (1990) when differentiating his equation OLR=EeffxsigmaxTs^4,which can be detected by any high school student learning differentiation. Manabe and the IPCC AR4 adopted Cess method to obtain the zero feedback climate sensitivity (Planck response) =1.2K. The detailed discussions are here: http://multi-science.atypon.com/doi/abs/10.1260/0958-305X.26.6-7.1055

The AGW theory of the IPCC has caused huge economic losses to the world, including the collapse of British coal industry and the Fukushima nuclear disaster from the nuclear promotion policy of Japanese government to cut CO2 emissions. How will you take your responsibility for this?

As shown above, you are lawbreakers in the court of science. In the farewell lecture held on 26 October, 2001 in Tokyo, Manabe spoke about his research as follows:

Research funds have been $3 million per year and $120 million for the past 40 years. It is not clever to pursue the scientific truth. A better way is choosing the relevant topics to society for the funds covering the staff and computer cost of the project.”

Sincerely,

Mr. K. Kimoto

References

Cess, R.D., 1976. An appraisal of atmospheric feedback mechanisms employing zonal climatology. J.Atmospheric Sciences 33, 1831-1843.

Cess, R.D., Potter, G.L., Blanchet, J.P., Boer, G.J., Ghan, S.J., Kiehl, J.T., Le Treut, H., Li, Z.X., Liang, X.Z., Mitchell, J.F.B., Morcrette, J.J., Randall, D.A., Riches, M.R., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Slingo, A., Taylor, K.E., Washington, W.M., Wetherald, R.T., Yagai, I., 1989. Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models. Science 245, 513-516.

Cess, R.D., Potter, G.L., Blanchet, J.P., Boer, G.J., DelGenio, A.D., Deque, M., Dymnikov, V., Galin, V., Gates, W.L., Ghan, S.J., Kiehl, J.T., Lacis, A.A., LeTreut, H., Li, Z.X., Liang, X.Z., McAvaney, B.J., Meleshko, V.P., Mitchell, J.F.B., Morcrette, J.J., Randall, D.A., Rikus, L., Roeckner, E., Royer, J.F., Schlese, U., Sheinin, D.A., Slingo, A., Sokolov, A.P., Taylor, K.E., Washington, W.M. and Wetherald, R.T., 1990. Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 Atmospheric General Circulation Models.  J. Geophysical Research 95, 16,601-16,615.

Manabe, S., Wetherald, R.T., 1967. Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. J. Atmospheric Sciences 24, 241-259.

Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D., Russell, G., 1981. Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science 213, 957-966.

German DWD Weather Service Says North Pole Heat Spike, Atlantic Storm “Frank” Not Related To Climate Change!

Germany’s centre-left online weekly Die Zeit here presents an interview with a DWD German meteorologist concerning the late December warmth that hit the North Pole, an event that saw global warming activists and alarmists hollering it was evidence of manmade climate change.

Surprisingly the usually very alarmist Die Zeit gave a relatively balanced account from DWD meteorologist Andreas Friedrich in the interview. Alarm called off!

In late December North Atlantic storm “Frank” (In Germany dubbed “Eckard”) pumped a mass of warm air all the way up to the North Pole, sending the mercury there to the melting point for a day or so.

When Friedrich was asked if the event was unusual, he replied that the often ballyhooed temperature jump of 50°C was an exaggeration, and that the real temperature jump was closer to 30°C. The German meteorologist than stated that Atlantic storm Frank was extreme, but nothing that hasn’t been seen before already, explaining that its cause was a cold air mass clashing with a warm air mass near the surfsce.

When Die Zeit asked Friedrich whether the storm was connected to climate change, he replied (my emphasis):

The extreme low has nothing directly to do with climate change, which happens very slowly over very long time periods. Storm Frank happened coincidentally – an atmospheric fit. Such storms happen of course when air masses of very different temperatures clash. According to today’s climate models they will not become more frequent if the earth warms up on average. At most they may be more violent.”

Die Zeit persisted asking: “So extreme lows such as Frank that warm up the North Pole won’t be more frequent?”

Friedrich responded: “That would be pure speculation.”

So there we have it – directly from an expert meteorologist at the alarmist DWD itself, and reported by the alarmist Die Zeit. Of course temperature spikes at the North Pole are nothing new. They’ve happened many times before.

 

Comprehensive Analysis Sends Young/Columbia University Paper To The Dustbin …”Coup de Grâce” Results “Untenable”

Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt have been busy mapping the Medieval Warm Period using Google as a tool.

Lately their focus has been on a number of studies examining temperature reconstructions from the Baffin Island and Western Greenland. This focus has been in part in response to a recent paper by Nicolás Young, a glacial geologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, which claimed with “great clarity of evidence” that the Medieval Warm Period did not exist globally and that it was a “patchy” phenomenon at best.

First Lüning finds that the paper’s emotional tone peculiar – one that seemed to be fishing for media attention at any price. Lüning notes, “One has to wonder that Columbia University would allow such an emotional and combative press release to go through.” Lüning and Vahrenholt added: “The paper also failed to get any attention from the German press. Did they sense that something could be rotten about it?

Lüning’s and Vahrenholt’s spent three weeks examining Young’s paper and many others from the region. Their conclusion: Young’s paper is ripe for the dustbin.

In all the two German scientists looked at more than two dozen papers from the region inquestion, covering some 20 locations, see plot below:

Figure 1: Chart of studies with results of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). The numbers refer to the sequence of the discussion in the text. Red points indicate MWP was warm, blue points show it was cold. See the interactive Google Maps map here.

Because time is short, I’ve translated only the summaries. All the abstracts of the more than 2 dozen papers presented are in English at Lüning’s and Vahrenholt’s post, which I’ve linked to above.

Summary of results for Canada

In the North Canadian Arctic, the situation certainly appears to be clear: The MWP is described in numerous studies. Only 2 of 16 glacier studies (among them the one from (Young et al. 2015) show MWP glacier advances, which likely was a local phenomenon, e.g. caused by heavy local snowfall.

Lüning and Vahrenholt also looked at studies examining western Greenland, see following chart:

Figure 2: Chart of studies with results of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) – Close-up of Greenland’s west coast. The red markers indicate a warm MWP, the blue ones indicate it was cold. See the interactive Google Maps here.

In Western Greenland all studies show that the Medieval Warm Period was in fact warm. Moreover not only does Lüning’s and Vahrenholt’s comprehensive Google Maps-based survey show that the Medieval Warm Period was real in the Arctic, but that it was clearly a global phenomenon as well.

Lüning and Vahrenholt summarize:

The detailed analysis of all the literature concerning the MWP in the Northeast Canadian Arctic as well as western Greenland shows that the claims made Young et al. 2015 are untenable. The MWP in the region is well-documented. Suddenly all these studies are supposed to be wrong? Young and his colleagues obviously failed to put the other local studies in the necessary regional context. Because of the failure to do so, they arrived at misleading and faulty conclusions, which they actively promoted to the broad public in a provocative and scientifically unbalanced press release. It remains unclear as to why the peer-reviewers of the journal Science Advances did not detect these deficiencies and did not request corrections. Will the many authors of the papers presented here discuss the results with Young et al. in order to resolve the deviating results, or do they risk being publicly ostracized as climate skeptical lobbyists? The scientific climate discussion is in a political choke hold. The Young et al. paper and its inappropriate alarmist marketing (“coup de grâce for the MWP”) is an example of the questionable and emotionally-charged condition of today’s climate research.”

The valuable Google Maps resource was put together by Lüning and Vahrenholt, and is still in progress as much remains to be mapped. It has involved considerable work and has been crowd-funded so far by less than €12,000 in support from private donors. You can also help:

Donations by bank transfer:

Account : Prof. Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt
Account No.. 1280579069
Routing No.: 20050550
Hamburger Sparkasse
IBAN DE93200505501280579069
BIC HASPDEHHXXX
Please remark: MWP-Projekt

Donations by PayPal:

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Two Great Destructive Lies German Leaders Refuse To Abandon

Lie No. 1:

German renewable energies sun and wind are a success!

Chart shows installed rated sun / wind capacity vs actual output (sun yellow, wind blue). Fact is that wind and sun operate at only about 11% of their rated capacity and often there are days when there is relatively no output at all.

Lie No. 2:

Germany’s immigration policy is a success:

Pray that Lie No. 1 does not result in a blackout, which would make Lie No. 2 explode. It’s truly mind-boggling that leading lawmakers still continue to prop up both. Stunningly this only appears to be the beginning.

 

Data Surprise! Global Temperature Continues Stall, Polar Ice And Snow Cover Continue Surprising Growth

Thanks to German site wobleibtdieerderwärmung for providing what follows.

The slightly negative linear trend in global temperature measured by RSS satellite (TLT) continues despite the El-Nino-driven warm 2015.

Die globalen Temperaturabweichungen der unteren Atmosphäre (TLT) von RSS zeigen von Ende 1997 bis Ende 2015 weiterhin einen leichten negativen Trend (grüne Linie). Quelle:

Source: www.woodfortrees.org trend

This flat trend has held since the end of 1997 and is closing in on two decades – catching a number of scientists by surprise.

The preliminary data from UAH and RSS shows that 2015 was the third warmest year since the measurements began in 1978, and thus did not set a new record. A reanalysis of the global 2m temperature from CFSv2 measured a positive deviation from the mean of 0.27 K, but put the year 2015 only in 6th place:

Die Analyse der globalen 2m-Temperaturabweichungen im Jahr 2015: Mit einer Abweichungen von (nur) 0,27 K zum intetnational üblichne modernen WMO-Klmamittel 1981-2010 liegt das Jahr 2015 auf Rang 6.

Note that the poles in the chart have been stretched out and so appear much larger in size than what they actually are. Source: What Causes El Nino Warmth?

This all means that more than half of the satellite measurement era has seen no warming whatsoever!

In Germany according to a DWD press release dated 30 December 2015, the mean temperature for 2015 was 9,9°C and so was the second warmest on record, tied with 2000 and 2007, despite the unusually warm November and December months, which were dominated by mild southerly winds.

Polar ice growth

A big surprise for many has been the ice growth measured in Greenland since 2014. Moreover the Greenland ice sheet has gown some 300 km³ since September 1, 2015 alone:

Die Massebilanz des Grönlandeisschildes zeigt auch seit dem 1.9.2015 bis Anfang Januar 2016 einen deutlich überdurchschnittlichen Eiszuwachs (untere Grafik- blaue Linie) um rund 300 Gigatonnen (300 Milliarden Tonnen). Im Vorjahr waren es vom 1.9.2014 bis zum 31.8.2015 bereits rund 220 Gigatonnen Bruttozuwachs (braune Linie ganz rechts). Die graue Fläche ist der Bereich einer Standardabweichung vom rechnerischen Tagesmittel (Mean – dunkelgraue Linie). “Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 24 years (in the period 1990-2013) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 24 years have been left out.” Quelle: http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 24 years (in the period 1990-2013) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 24 years have been left out.” Source: www.dmi.dk/en/greenland-ice-mass-budget/.

It’s also worth taking a look at the surprising NASA-Study here!

The northern hemisphere in November 2015 saw a total of 36.25 million km² of snow cover. That’s about 2.3 million km² above the WMO 1981-2010 mean. It’s the 7th greatest extent since measurements began in 1966.

Die Schneeflächen auf der Nordhalbkugel weisen im November im Fünfjahreszeitraum von 2011 bis 2015 einen Rekord seit Beginn der Messungen 1960 auf. Noch nie gab es zuvor in einem Fünfjahreszeitraum in einem November auf der Nordhalbkugel so große Schneeflächen. Quelle:

Northern hemispheric snow cover in November for the 2011 to 2015 five-year period set a new record since measurements began in 1966. The 40-year trend is strongly upwards. Source: http://climate.rutgers.edu/month=11.

In summary the global temperature, polar ice and snow cover trends show no warming taking place, but rather harbor strong signals of cooling.

“AGW Theory is Collapsed” …Japanese Scientist Finds CO2 Climate Sensitivity Grandly Overstated!

In Paris countries signed a (non-binding) agreement on climate, and now coal will soon disappear from our lives, right? Think again.

A new paper by Japanese scientist Kyoji Kimoto published by Energy and Environment here suggests CO2 climate forcing has been grandly overstated, and as a consequence coal will remain an energy backbone for many nations in the future.

Kimoto maintains there’s been confusion over the Planck feedback parameters.

Here’s the abstract, emphasis added:

The central dogma is critically evaluated in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory of the IPCC, claiming the Planck response is 1.2K when CO2 is doubled. The first basis of it is one dimensional model studies with the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5°K/km. It is failed from the lack of the parameter sensitivity analysis of the lapse rate for CO2 doubling. The second basis is the Planck response calculation by Cess in 1976 having a mathematical error. Therefore, the AGW theory is collapsed along with the canonical climate sensitivity of 3°K utilizing the radiative forcing of 3.7W/m2 for CO2 doubling. The surface climate sensitivity is 0.14-0.17K in this study with the surface radiative forcing of 1.1W/m2. Since the CO2 issue is removed, coal will be the energy for the future of many nations in terms of the amount of resource and production cost.”

“Basic errors” in the AGW theory

In an e-mail Kimoto wrote he has 5 years experience in the computer simulation of chemical processes and has read most of the leading papers of the AGW scientists and found basic mathematical errors in the theory. His paper suggests that coal’s effect on climate has been considerably exaggerated, and that it will remain an essential energy source for many countries long into the future – due to its economy, availability and reliability.

In the paper’s conclusion, Kimoto states:

The central dogma of the IPCC is theoretically failed that the zero feedback climate sensitivity (Planck response) is 1.2K for 2xCO2, resulting in the collapse of the AGW theory claiming the canonical climate sensitivity of 3K for CO2 doubling.”

 

Germany’s Sexual-Assault Chernobyl – Public Outraged As Media/Political Cover-Up Crumbles

A stunning story has developed and it is thoroughly embarrassing Germany’s (naïve) policy of welcoming everyone and anyone, from anywhere, and with little border control to speak of.

As the world has come to learn of the mass gang-sexual-attacks by mobs of men in Cologne during the New Year’s Eve celebrations, what we have in fact witnessed is the Chernobyl of sexual assault on women. No one imagined this possible in a civilized country.

See here for background.

All across Germany

The Huffington Post Germany reports here the mass sexual terrorism against women was much more widespread than just an isolated incident in Cologne, rather it extended to places like Hamburg, Stuttgart, Bielefeld, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt and Berlin.

14 and 15-year old raped

Now, according to the latest media report, two young teenage girls, aged 14 and 15, were also raped by a gang of four men in the Rhine town of Weil – so reports German public broadcaster SWR. The two teenagers allegedly were the victims of “young men from Syria aged 16 – 20“.

Media kept lid on story for days

Amazingly it took the German mainstream media 3 to 4 days to even begin reporting the mass crime, sparking sharp public anger and accusations of a cover-up.

Major print and public broadcasting outlets resisted reporting the Cologne sex assault catastrophe – that is until mass outrage exploded on social media and at a few independent outlets. It was not until January 4 did the mainstream media finally abandon their blackout. Earlier, over months, the German public had been put under psychological pressure by the media and political leaders with thinly veiled threats of being labeled racist or extremist should anyone express criticism of the uncontrolled refugee policy.

Spiegel bullies a critic

For example the massive pressure not to express criticism was yet again plainly demonstrated just yesterday as Spiegel journalist Christina Hebel, who in a commentary here, compared conservative Andreas Scheuer of the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) to right wing extremists – just because he dared criticize the media’s hesitation to report the story and their resulting squandering of the public trust.

Police first claimed Cologne NYE had been “peaceful”

At police authorities in Cologne, so far 122 150 victims have filed reports of sexual assault, theft or even rape. As the scandal spreads, a chorus of accusations that the authorities ignored warnings and simply stood helpless is growing louder.

Bizarrely on the morning of January 1, after the mayhem had simmered down, Cologne police put out the unbelievable press statement claiming that the city’s New Year’s Eve celebrations had been “peaceful” when in fact it more resembled D-Day.

(Note: NTZ does not share the views of the person(s) who uploaded the video at Youtube)

It seemed no one was in a hurry or dared to tell it like it was.

To make things worse, Cologne Mayor Henriette Reker later put some of the blame for the mass sexual assault on the victim themselves, telling at a press conference women should avoid standing too close to strangers, or traveling alone in order to avoid being assaulted. She said:

There’s always the possibility of keeping a certain distance of more than an arm’s length — that is to say to make sure yourself you don’t look to be too close to people who are not known to you, and to whom you don’t have a trusting relationship.”

With that it seems the mayor is telling German women they are now expected to do their part and change their behavior so as to accommodate men who cannot control their urges. Her poorly thought out comments were roundly and harshly criticized.

Europewide, “rape capital” Stockholm, Sweden

The public outrage has become so intense that even left-leaning feminists, such as Alice Schwarzer, are blasting the German immigration policy. The far left retaliated, accusing Ms. Schwarzer of being a “right wing feminist”. Other feminists and activists had long warned trouble was brewing. The mass sexual assault – arguably the terrorism of women – is not an isolated incident taking place in Germany, but has swept across Europe, writes conservative news outlet Breitbart here. Stockholm Sweden today is being called the “rape-capital of the world” because the problem has gotten so bad.

The question remains, and is becoming increasingly urgent: Will Europe’s leaders finally take their responsibility and the fears of citizens seriously, and take real action, or will they let the extreme right exploit it to the max? Failure here is not an option.

Europe has reached a very critical historical crossroad.

 

Sea Level Rise Postponed … 5 Very Recent Papers Show Antarctic Ice Much More Stable Than Originally Believed!

Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning recently sent a letter to daily Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten (PNN), which earlier had reported on dramatic “ice loss” in Antarctica and resulting dangerous sea level rise – the typical bogus climate alarm story we’ve become accustomed to hearing from the Truth Media.

Sadly, the PNN presented only the doom and gloom perspective of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and so Lüning sent a letter to set the record straight. In his letter he presented by 5 very recent papers that “clearly contradict such a dramatic ice melting at the South Pole.”

In the first paper Lüning cites, NASA states that ice mass gains at Antarctica were greater than the losses.

The second paper states that scientists concluded that sea level rise from the modeled melting of Antarctic ice sheets over the next 200 years will in fact be slower than expected. Yes, the models were over the top again.

The third paper Lüning presents shows that melting of the “West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be slowed by two big factors that are largely overlooked in current computer models“. Yes, more model flaws.

The fourth paper, appearing in the American Geophysical Union, states that “annual snow accumulation on West Antarctica’s coastal ice sheet increased dramatically during the 20th century“.

And the fifth paper examined here writes that the Antarctic ice sheet has stayed frozen over the past 14 millions years, thus suggesting that “the surrounding region, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, or EAIS, has likewise remained intact“, thus lending “new support for the idea that the EAIS did not experience significant melting even during the Pliocene, a period from 3 to 5 million years ago, when carbon dioxide concentrations rivaled what they are today“.

Lüning writes to the PNN that he is getting the impression that “foremost dramatizing climate studies are finding their way” to their newspaper and that he would be happy if they visited his Die kalte Sonne site.

 

Large Number Of Climate Scientists, Officials Baffled Arctic Sea Ice Still Hasn’t Disappeared, But Has Grown Instead

Why hasn’t the Arctic  still not disappeared despite all the announcements that it would?
By Dr. Dietrich E. Koelle
[Translated, edited by P Gosselin]

Announcements that the Arctic sea ice would soon disappear have been among the most favorite of claims made by publicity-seeking climatologists and leading American politicians. According to the following, there isn’t supposed to be any Arctic sea ice left today:

10 Failed Forecasts

(1) M. Murphy, New Scientist, 1960: “The Arctic ocean will be ice free the entire year before the end of the 20th century” (i.e. by the year 2000),

(2) “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen 1972: “The warming trend can produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.”

(3) Jay Zwally (NASA) said in December 2007 : “The Arctic Ocean could almost be ice-free in the summer of 2012” (National Geographic)

(4) Louis Fortier (Arctic Net, Canada) 2007: “The Arctic could be ice-free in the summer by 2010 or 2015”.

(5) David Barber (Univ. of Manitoba), 2008: “The North Pole could be ice-free this summer for the first time”: June 2008 (2) (3)

(6) Prof. W. Maslowski (US Naval Postgraduate School), 2008: “In summer 2013 we will have an ice-free Arctic”.

(7) Mark Serreze, NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Colorado, USA) in 2008: “The Arctic could be ice-free in 2012”.

(8) Al Gore, former US Vice President at the Copenhagen climate conference 2009: “Arctic will be ice-free in five years” = 2014.

(9) US-Senator John Kerry 2009: “The Arctic will be ice-free in 2013”.

(10) Prof. P. Wadhams (Cambridge University), 2007: said in 2007 that the Arctic ice was in a “death spiral”, and in 2011: “the ice could be completely gone in four years”, i.e. 2015.

So what happened?

The Arcic ice has not disappeared, rather after shrinking from 1980 to 2012 it has risen over the past years (Figure 1). 2015 saw a Northwest Passage that was no longer possible to cross – too much ice.

Figure 1: Arctic ice volume from 1979 to 2015. Source: Dominiklenne, Wikipedia. Public Domain.

While we shouldn’t be surprised that politicians like Al Gore or John Kerry would say such things and latch on to claims about the end of the Arctic, it is completely baffling that experts such as Mark Serreze (NSIDC) or Prof. P. Wadhams would reach such estimations.

What do all these false forecasts have in common?

They fully ignore statements that point out polar ice mass and extent are cyclical in nature. This means that it is not possible to simply extrapolate outwards from a short-term trend. There are foremost phases of expansion and retreat. The main causes for this are temperature fluctuations and changes in oceanic and atmospheric currents. Only one thing is certain: The supposedly responsible-for-everything CO2 rise here plays no role.  The proof is delivered by the development of Antarctic sea ice, which, at the same atmospheric CO2 level as at the North Pole, has risen steadily over the past 35 years and reached a record in 2014 (Figure 2). Strangely this rarely gets brought up by the media. It just doesn’t fit with the hysteria template.

Fundamentally many conventional climate scientists have a problem with natural climate factors and climate cycles. For them climate first began in 1880 along with the systematic measurement of temperature. Before that there is only proxy data, which however are imprecise and thus are best ignored. That’s why there’s a widespread lack of understanding when it comes to the natural climate factors that were at play long before man appeared on the planet.

Figure 2: Antarctic sea ice area from 1979 to 2015. Source: Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois.

Figure 3 below shows the global temperature from 1860 to 2000, along with the Arctic temperature. Clear to see is the 60-year cycle temperature fluctuation between 0.2 and 1.2°C. Russian Autor Frolov shows in Figure 4 a similar trend for the Barents Sea (70-90° N) and extrapolated accordingly for the coming 50 years. Here a temperature drop of about 1.5°C is expected. Also in a new GEOMAR-paper from 2014 that factors in the NAO impact reaches the result that the North Atlantic region is going to cool.

Figure 3: Temperature in the Arctic, 1860-2000

 

Figure 4: Temperature and projection at the Barents Sea 1900-2060 (Frolov, 2014)

Clearly there is absolutely no indication anywhere that points to the Arctic sea ice disappearing. American climate researcher David Dilley, who worked 20 years at the NOAA, even said that according to his analyses, cooling will continue over the next 120 years (4). This can be expected due to the anticipated temperature decline associated with the natural 230 year climate cycle that reached its peak in 2005. This trend is shown also in Figure 4 with the reduced maximum in 2060 compared to 2000.

To the contrary, scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany, are anticipating a long-term-reduction in sea ice cover at the North Pole area in the summer time over the coming decades (5). Ms. C. Habermalz, AWI, believes (8) the Arctic will be ice-free by 2040-2050.

No matter, there is no need to fret over the poor polar bears having their icebergs melt away, which a number of wildlife protection organizations have announced in attempts to get people to donate. Polar bears have already survived a number of warm periods – the most recent being the Holocene Maximum 7000 years ago when global temperature was some 1.5°C higher. Sea ice at the North Pole, David Dilley says, was only half as much back then (see ref. (6)).

Literature:

(1)  Ice-free Arctic Forecasts, Real Science Blog,  27 Aug. 2012

(2)  National Geographic News, 20 June 2008 and Telegraph (UK), 27 June 2008

(3)  Arctic ice recovers from the great melt, J.Leake, Sunday Times, London, 4 April 2010

(4)  “Dramatic Cooling in the Arctic, Extremely Cold from 2025 to 2050″, P.Gosselin,, 12 August 2015, notrickszone.

(5) Press Release AWI “Arktis: Meereisbedeckung – erste Prognosen für 2009″, Sept. 2008

(6)  Gudmund Lovo: Less ice in the Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 years ago, , NGU (Norway), 20 Oct 2008

(7) I. E. Frolov et al: Climate Change in Eurasean Arctic Shelf Seas, Springer-Verlag, 2010, 166 pages

(8) P. Gosselin, NoTricksZone, 13 April 2015, Sustainable Postponements

(9)  Nick Collins “Arctic Ice to melt by 2015″ (Wadhams), The Telegraph, UK,  8 November 2011

(11)  Analysis Shows That Arctic Sea Ice Melt Extent Mostly Occurs In Natural Cycles, by P Gosselin on 17 July 2013

(10) Was macht eigentlich das arktische Meereis? Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt,  17 July 2013, Kalte Sonne Blog

(12) Ian Johnston: Polar History shows Melting Ice-Cap may be a Natural Cycle”, The Scotsman, 9 März 2005

 

Journalistic Fraud: North Pole Region Saw Similar Warm Spikes Before… OVER 70 TIMES In Last 58 Years!

Last week the media, led by the Washington Post, screamed and hollered the North Pole was in meltdown as temperatures there rose some “5 degrees above normal”. In Europe some media outlets did not even bother converting the 50° Fahrenheit figure to (the less impressive sounding) 32°C.

It is true that the temperature right at the North Pole was “estimated” by “weather forecast models” to have supposedly reached the melting point – for a period of a few hours. But what the news media neglected to tell readers is that the North Pole region itself is actually a vast area – and one that is extremely poorly measured – as even the Washington Post admits. The Arctic region as a whole in fact did not warm up anywhere near 32°K (50°F) last week.

Only a fraction of the Arctic saw a large warm spike

The reality is that weather charts showed only a minority fraction of the Arctic saw temperatures near the melting point, while the vast remainder remained stuck at its usual 25 – 40°C below zero range.

According to the Danish Meteorological Institute here, which has been systematically tracking Arctic temperatures north of 80° latitude since 1958, here’s what the 2015 “North Pole meltdown” really looked like (far right) once the whole Arctic region got factored in:

DMI Dec31 2015

Chart: DMI.

The above DMI figure shows that the temperature in the Arctic above 80°N was estimated to have risen only some 13°K during the event, and not 30°K as the WAPO tried having its readers think. Note how also in early March 2015 the Arctic saw a similar rise.

Just a few hours after the local region near the North Pole saw a burst of warm southern air, almost immediately temperatures there dropped back to -30°C.

Has a 13°K spike happened before?

Is a 13°K temperature spike in the high Arctic something weird and totally unusual that we need to worry about? Going back and looking at the DMI charts over the past 58 years, we find that such temperature spikes in the Arctic for the period early November to late March are nothing new.

For example a look at the year 1959, the chart below shows that a similar temperature spike occurred not just once, but twice! (marked yellow).

DMI 1959
Chart: DMI.

And examining all the years since 1958 we see that a temperature spike of some 12°K or more in a matter of a few days (during the November to March deep winter period) occurred more than 70 times! And over 100 times for spikes of 10°K and more.

Clearly we see fluctuations of 10°K (i.e. similar to what just happened) in a matter of days are actually the norm for the North Pole region.

Also taking a look at the wild fluctuations seen in 1964, 1984, or 1990 – back when CO2 was at levels near or below the “safe” 350 ppm – we see they were far more extreme.

What does this tell us about the reporting by the Washington Post, and all the other media outlets who allowed themselves to be duped and irresponsibly played along? It shows that many mainstream journalists are agenda-driven, not interested in digging, and that their sole aim in reporting climate science is to fabricate junk-science-based scare stories that have no journalistic merit.

They’ve degraded themselves to acting as the mouthpieces for a dishonest agenda.

Also read more here.

New Paper By Renowned Sea Level Expert Nils-Axel Mörner, Calls AGW A “New Religion” Built On “False Premises.”

Renowned sea level expert and geoscience professor Nils-Axel Mörner recently published a paper in the Journal of Religious Studies, Buddhism and Living titled: “The New Religion of Global Warming and its Misconception in Science“.

Moerner-paper

Obviously the retired professor from Sweden believes that today’s climate science is best discussed in a forum reserved for faith a religion.

Exaggerated by a factor of three

As the pictured cover abstract above shows, Mörner concludes that AGW is a “new religion” built on “false premises” and that it violates physical laws. He adds that “the calculated temperature changes from 102 climate models lie above measured values by a factor of three“.

 Bild in Originalgröße anzeigen  Few scientists have published as much on the subjects of sea level rise, paleo-geophysics and geodynamics as Nils-Axel Mörner has. He is also a co-founder of the Prague-based Independent Committee on Geoethics.

AGW “an illusion”

In a recent article Mörner also called CO2-driven global warming “an illusion” and that scientists “who insist that present climate changes are the function of CO2-driven global warming” place themselves in the “shameful box of anti-science“.

Photo: Nils-Axel Mörner

 

How The $250 Billion US Diabetes Industry Operates… “There’s A Lot Of Money To Be Made Keeping You Sick”

Today I’m meandering off into the field of nutrition, as readers here know I do this sometimes – if I feel it’s very important.

Recently at Twitter I began following Tim Noakes, a specialist in nutrition. Tim recently posted a link to a video by Dr. Sarah Hallberg, who runs a clinic for treating obesity and diabetes in Indiana. If you have 20 minutes time, do take it to watch the video. It may add years to your life (and save our bank accounts).

Some time ago I became convinced that obesity, heart disease and nutrition-related diabetes were in fact all designed to profit what to me is increasingly looking like a very deceptive and evil group of industries. It wasn’t intended at first, but then a number of parties discovered how they could rig it to their benefit, and the rest morphed into the monster it has become today.

At least two generations of the human species have had the wool pulled over their eyes with the high-carb diet, junk-science-based nonsense. Just the most basic statistics tell the whole story:

* 50% of US adults (120 million) are either diabetic or pre-diabetic.
* Each patient pays thousands annually for diabetes medicine.
* Diabetes industry alone rakes in $250 billion every year.

Let’s recall that the high-carb diet, just like global science, was once backed up by a overwhelming “consensus of leading experts”. Today hundreds of millions of people are now paying a painful price. Hallberg says:

There’s a lot of money to be made keeping you sick.”

If I were Dr. Hallberg, I’d be watching my back very closely. There are a lot of powerful forces out there who don’t want her message to get out.

 

Lured By “Unrealistic Promises” Of Profit, German Communities Wind Up With “Financial Disasters” And Damaged Environments

The FDP Free Democrat party in the state of Hesse (central Germany) writes in a press release how local utilities and communities are suing wind park development company JUWI, accusing it of “making unrealistic promises” regarding wind energy projects, and calls them “highly speculative business with enormous risks for public budgets“.

Over the years German local utilities and communities have invested tens of millions of euros in local wind parks with the hopes of seeing a ruddy return on investment and making a noble contribution to climate protection at the same time. That dream, it is turning out, has shattered.

The FDP press release in English:

Millions in losses with wind power projects

WIESBADEN – Once again wind projects are producing negative headlines. In the spotlight is “wind energy pioneer” JUWI, which is one of the largest project developers in Hesse. With the Pfalz City Utility and the City Utility of Mainz, two large community electric utilities are suing currently JUWI because the wind prognoses made never came materialized, and thus the returns fell way below the planned budget. Instead of posting profits after more than ten years in operation, community company “Pfalzwind GmbH“ has seen double-digit millions in losses. Pfalzwind operates more than 60 turbines.

‘We see the same result in Hesse as well. Everywhere communities, utilities and energy co-ops were lured by large profits, but in the end most wound up with losses that the citizens will have to cope with. Not only are they stuck with damage to the environment and the landscape, but now they also have a financial disaster to cope with,’ says René Rock, energy policy speaker of the FDP faction in the Hesse state parliament.

Rock adds:

‘The lawsuits by the community utilities once again show that promises made by the wind industry are unrealistic. And due to the falling feed-in rates, the economic prospects are worsening in addition. Also large utilities in Hesse, such as Mainova AG in Frankfurt, are losing money with their stakes in wind parks.

Currently alone in Hesse some 470 wind turbines are in the permitting process. Instead of blindly trusting the promises made by project developers, planned wind power projects involving investment by communities should be halted based on economic sense. In truth wind parks are highly speculative businesses with enormous risks for public budgets.'”

And never mind the industrial blight and environmental destruction they are causing to Germany’s once idyllic landscape, and the threat to human health and wildlife.

 

Catastrophic Turbine Failures, Targeted Blackouts Plague German Power As Wind, Solar Energy Increase

Thanks in large part to wind and solar energy, not only have German electricity prices paid by consumers skyrocketed over the past years, thus casting a large number of homes into home fuel poverty, but also the supply itself is rapidly becoming precarious and unreliable.

One problem is the stabilization of the power grid in the face of wildly fluctuating wind and solar energy feed-in. The other problem is the mechanical integrity associated the wind turbines themselves. Hat-tip: Gerti Brunthaler at Facebook.

Catastrophic wind turbine failures

Increasingly it is becoming apparent that wind turbines have a way of just collapsing – often without notice – due to mysterious causes. One might suspect mechanical fatigue due to the complex cyclic loading that wind turbines are subjected to. Consequently wind parks are becoming hazardous zones for persons and property in the vicinity – never mind the proven detrimental health effects of infrasound.

One example (of many) of a recent catastrophic turbine failure is reported by the North German Ostesee Zeitung here. According to the article, just 2 days ago, the blade of a wind turbine snapped off unexpectedly, boring itself into the ground. The Ostsee Zeitung writes that local residents were “shocked” and the reason for the collapse is unknown. The online news site writes:

At the time of the accident there was neither a storm nor unusual weather conditions. ‘We are baffled as well,’ says Carlo Schmidt, Managing Director of Windprojekt company, which operates the turbine in question.”

Luckily no one was injured, or killed.

Wind turbine in Sweden fails with “incredible bang”.

Another recent catastrophic failure occurred in Sweden, so reports the Swedish online svt.se news site here.

Forestry machinery operator Erik Karlsson of the Vetlanda municipality heard an “incredible bang” while working on Christmas Eve, but thought nothing of it. Later as went home he discovered that a nearby wind turbine had fallen to the ground across the road. The huge turbine mast had snapped some 15 meters up and the unit came crashing down, the SVT writes. Authorities quickly cordoned off the wind park area. Here as well the cause of the failure is unknown. The wind park has since been designated as a hazardous area: “The public has been asked to keep away.”

These are just two recent examples of many of wind turbine collapses.

Blackouts to prevent blackouts

In addition to catastrophic mechanical failures, wind and solar energy are wreaking havoc on power grid stability, so writes the German online mittelhessen.de here.

The online newssite reports that the future for the residents of Wetzlar may be looking bleak. Why?

If in the future the power goes out, the reason maybe rooted in the energy management act. In order to eliminate the possibility of widespread blackouts, grid operators such as Enwag are obligated to switch off consumers or even entire parts of the city.

These targeted blackouts are necessary, mittelhessen.de writes, because it is the only way left to keep the power grid from over or under-loading. The site tells readers:

The probability of large blackouts is increasing with the strongly growing power generation from wind and sun. Experts have long seen the power grid threatened by this.”

Unfortunately grid operators will have to react very quickly to the power grid fluctuations. The mittelhessen.de reports that “there won’t be any time for operators to make long calculations” and that “there will be only an hour to react”. Just how vulnerable is the power grid in the Wetzlar region? Mittelhessen.de writes:

A chain of seemingly harmless single incidents can in the worst case lead to a domino effect and lead to outages in all connected power networks.”

In plain English: one small problem could lead to a widespread blackout. To keep this from happening, the solution is now to conduct targeted blackouts in an attempt to keep the grid balanced. If you are running a company, or merely working on an important document at your PC, then it’ll just be tough luck. Just use paper and pen, and light up a candle.

Junk energy at a high price. Other countries may wish to think twice before copying the model.

Happy New Year!

 

Tremendous Cooling Of Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperatures …Sharp Spell Of Global Cooling Ahead?

Over the past months we’ve witnessed a powerful El Niño, a Pacific oceanic phase that brings warm sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. This El Niño has made 2015 global temperatures among the highest on the satellite record.

But not only has the equatorial surface Pacific been warm, so has a vast part of the northeastern Pacific, as the following chart from April 2015 shows:

Der warme "Blop" im östlichen Nordpazifik (rote Farben) und der eher kühle Nordatlantik (blaeu und grüne Farben im April 2015

Figure 1: Warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the northeastern Pacific along the North American west coast indicated in red, recorded April 2015, along with a small patch of cool North Atlantic sea surface. Source: April 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update, Hat tip: wobleibtdieerderwaermung

Also the North Atlantic sea surface had been warm, but recently turned cool as the above chart shows.

Disturbing trend

Now, some eight months later, we see a disturbing northern hemisphere oceanic surface trend very much in the works. No, sea surface temperatures have not gotten even warmer – rather quite to the contrary: they’ve gotten tremendously colder.

Hat-tip: wobleibtdieerderwaermung.

Pacific Dec302015

Fig. 2: The latest chart above shows the large reduction of the northeastern Pacific warm blob, and the huge growth in the North Atlantic cold region. Source: cropped from Unisys here.

The above chart shows two major developments: 1) the northeastern Pacific warm blob has shriveled away massively, and 2) the North Atlantic cool spot has exploded in size and is now a vast region of cold sea surface temperatures. The northern hemisphere is de facto getting refrigerated.

La Nina will cool globe further

Not only are northern hemisphere sea surface temperatures falling rapidly, but also the equatorial Pacific is set for a widespread cool-down as the current El Niño begins its decline and heads towards  a La Niña, the cool phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Most models now show it will arrive possibly late 2016. This means the globe will very likely soon see three vast and major oceanic regions entering a cool phase all at once. This is setting up to have profound impacts on global temperature over the coming months and two-three years – if not longer.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell has pointed out a number of times that the last La Niñas have gotten progressively deeper, and states we should not be surprised if the next one is as deep, or even deeper. Could we be looking at a major northern hemispheric cooling (0.5°C or more) by 2017?

What’s interesting is the large corridor of cool Atlantic sea surface that has since formed southwest of the British islands, west of Spain (Fig. 2). Europeans will recall that the continent’s recent weather was dominated by almost non-stop southwesterly winds over the past 2 months. That period of extremely mild weather Europeans have been experiencing was in fact due to that large, uninterrupted flow of warm, southwesterly air coming off the Atlantic. Had the opposite happened, Europe would have been frozen over, just as was the case in 2010.

What happens to tropical warmth up north?

Today we see a powerful storm centered over Iceland that is pumping up yet more warmth – all the way to the North Pole:

Iceland low 30Dec2015

Fig. 3: Unusual event: warm tropical air getting transported all the way to the North Pole. Source: here.

That sort of tropics-to-pole movement we see above has been going on over the northeast Atlantic for some 2 months -though not that extreme.

Here’s something to think about, and maybe I can get some feedback on this. What happens to all that thermal surface energy that got swept up from the Atlantic tropics and moved to the high latitudes (in the dead of winter)? Would it not all get rapidly radiated out into space at these very high latitudes?

Wouldn’t that pattern accelerate the surface cooling of the oceans at the mid and lower Atlantic latitudes (e.g. see Fig. 2, west of Spain)? Could this now protracted pattern have made the cooling in the Atlantic even more pronounced and explain in part why the North Atlantic has cooled? If so, what impact will a cool Atlantic in combination with a soon to be widespread cool Pacific have on global temperatures over the next couple of years?

Now throw in the soon-coming low solar activity.

If you are into warming, don’t be surprised if you suddenly find things turning very cool, and soon. The next couple of years will be interesting. My hunch is that Joe Bastardi is on the right track. We’ll soon see!

UPDATE: Here’s what NCEP chart shows (hat-tip: Joe Bastardi).

NCEPSST2015_12

 

Now It’s Global Cooling! German Weekly Warns Scientists See “Mini Ice Age Coming In Just A Few Years”

The recent focus on (and hysteria over) the warm Christmas weather we saw over the North American east coast and Europe apparently is already fading and giving way to far more serious concerns – like the snow bowl blizzard of normally sunny El Paso, for example.

Naturally it’s just silly to use one weather event as proof of a climate trend, and so we have to keep the focus on long-term trends and historical climate cycles. Four days ago the online German national news weekly FOCUS here looked into the growing number of reports and signs that the warming is in its final days.

The German news magazine reports: “Scientists prognosticate icy cold winters like in the Dark Ages” and that despite the recent warm year: “Indeed some scientists see a mini ice age coming in just a few years.”

FOCUS tells its readers that already the Holocene has now drawn out some 11,500 years and the next ice age is in fact 1500 years overdue when we go back and compare it to the previous intergalcials. That’s one reason why we should not be too hopeful of long-term warming ahead, FOCUS writes.

Indeed the overall temperature trend over the past 10,000 years has been downward.

“Next ice age is certainly coming”

Another reason is solar activity. FOCUS cites Professor Sami Solanki, Director of the prestigious Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research. He tells FOCUS that the current solar cycle is “not typical” of what we have seen over the past half century, but reminds us that it is still too early to make a “reliable forecast” for a next ice age. Overall Solanki tells FOCUS: The next ice age is certainly coming. It is a question of when.“

In the article Professor Solanki confirms the historical climate cycles and that the earth is cooler during periods of lower solar activity.

Top Climate Activist Lashes Out At Germany’s No-Result Climate Policy: “A First-Class Political Fraud”!

Despite all the big talk by German political leaders on cutting back CO2 and fighting climate change, the country’s actions speak far greater volumes.

Germany’s CO2 reductions over the past few years have not gone anywhere – except up – despite two consecutive much warmer than normal weather years. These are the results coming from Germany’s leading alarmist climate site klimaretter.de here.

Rising CO2 emissions, energy consumption

At klimaretter.de, alarmist (and fashion trendsetter) Nick Reimer is so disappointed by Germany’s failed CO2 reductions that he was compelled to lash out in an angry post at German climate policy, calling it: “a first class political fraud“. According to the German AGEB here, which Reimer cites, in 2015 German CO2 emissions actually rose slightly as energy consumption rose 1.3%.

So far most of Germany’s reductions have come from the shut down of old dilapidated East German industry in 1990 and the outsourcing of labor-intensive industry to China and abroad. Future CO2 emissions reductions are going to be almost impossible, that is unless the country puts itself on the path of economic suicide.

The dream of 40% CO2 reduction (compared to 1990 levels) by 2020 is a totally wet one, and even the German government officials know it. Reimer moans that German Economics Minister and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel promised Germany would reach its 40% CO2 reductions target by 2020, but it is in fact nowhere near on track to do so. Reimer writes that the country would have to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 3.25 percent every year in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 – a monumental amount.

GERMANY IS NOT GOING TO REACH ITS TARGET

There are a number of reasons why future cuts in CO2 aren’t going to happen easily.

Firstly, fossil fuels prices are at rock bottom and show no signs of rising soon. People, especially the poor, are rejoicing and no longer worry as much when making that extra trip with the car.

Another reason is that the country will have at least 2 or more million new immigrants by 2020, and they are going to need housing, heat, electricity, cars, refrigeration etc.. It is expected that they will boost the German economy further. Moreover, energy efficiency is not their culture. For example one gas heating specialist told me that many immigrants heat their housing at full blast, with the windows open, with the children running around on tile floors bare foot. It goes without saying that these people have much greater concerns than saving energy, which for them is free anyway. They don’t worry hysterically about every GHG molecule that gets emitted into the atmosphere – like the neurotic environmental westerners do.

A third reason why Germany reaching its CO2 target will be almost impossible is that the mild winter weather we’ve seen the last two years isn’t going to last. This is because the current solar cycle is winding down and the next La Nina is in the pipeline. Despite what some will insist, the cold winters aren’t going to vanish over the next few years. Even the alarmist Potsdam Institute warns that Europe will be seeing cold winters.

The fourth reason Germany will not meet its 2020 CO2 reduction target is because the country is set to shut down its remaining nuclear power plants, meaning more coal power is going to have to come online. Meanwhile subsidies for sun and wind and biogas are still getting scaled back.

2015 “a lost year”

The klimaretter.de alarmist Reimer now calls 2015 “a lost year in the struggle against global warming“, writing that it’s the second year in a row that the country will completely miss its annual reduction target.

In summary, expect to keep hearing lots of lofty climate-protection talk from German politicians, but don’t expect any real action from them. The Paris Agreement, after all, is just a piece of paper, and everybody knows it.