35 Degrees Below Zero And Colder Spreads, Grips 2 Million Square Kilometers Swath Of Central Siberia

Not only is North America bracing for a possible near record-setting cold blast from the Arctic, but also Siberia has been reporting massive snow cover and widespread cold. It’s only the first half of November and the dead of winter is still two months away!

Siberian cold 10Nov2014

The CO2 blanket having no effect in Siberia. Image source: earth.nullschool.net729.

This, experts have been warning, bodes ill for the chances of a harsh winter over North America and Europe. Two weeks ago Siberan snow cover and cold was already close to record high levels. That situation has only gotten worse, the Big Wobble Almanac here writes:

Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there’s a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter? So in the two and a half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse.
About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanketed Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967, according to Rutgers snow lab.”

There are other signs that Europe could be facing a cold winer, although so far early on it has seen weeks of very mild weather. The online prfire writes:

The first migrating Siberian swans landed in Britain – heralding the belated arrival of winter. Each year around 300 Bewick swans flock to the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust reserve at Slimbridge, Glos after flying 2,500 from Arctic Russia. This year’s arrival – coinciding with the first cold snap of the season – is the latest for 45 years and more than two weeks ahead of usual. […]

The Bewicks – the smallest and rarest members of the swan family – live in Siberia during the summer. In winter they migrate west – aided by chilling easterly winds – to escape winter temperatures of -25 degrees C.

Bewick’s have migrated to Slimbridge every winter for 60 years and adult swans teach their young the route. Their arrival comes after weather experts predicted the harshest winter in 100 years. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said last week: “The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10. ‘That was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.'”

 

Federal Minister Of Economics Sigmar Gabriel: “Ending Coal Is Mass Disinformation Of The People”…”An Illusion”

Calls for rigid and draconian CO2 emissions reduction targets in Germany have been dealt a body blow.

Germany’s Federal Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel of Angela Merkel’s coalition partner the SPD socialists has dumped a load of cold water on the extreme demand for a rapid shutdown of the country’s coal power plants.

Gabriel_SPD
German Federal Ministry of Economics Minister and SPD party chief Sigmar Gabriel calls a shut down of Germany’s coal power plants “an illusion” and “mass disinformation of the people”. Photo credit: www.sigmar-gabriel.de

The Berlin based center-left online daily Der Tagesspiegel here reports on remarks Gabriel made in response to a question posed by a Greenpeace activist during a discussion with French economist Thomas Piketty at the Federal Ministry of Economics in Berlin.

Earlier in the day activists had dumped 8 tonnes of coal in front of the Ministry in protest. They request Berlin shut down all German coal-fired power plants. Der Tagesspiegel describes Gabriel’s mocking reaction to the demand (my emphasis):

When the Greenpeace and others demand that all German coal power plants be shut down, that is hardly more than ‘mass disinformation of the people‘ which ‘will not lead to a single tonne of CO2 being saved for the global climate,’ Gabriel added. He is in favor, however, of the European Emissions Trading being set up again so that coal becomes more expensive. ‘I also have nothing against Greenpeace bringing its coal here. ‘We can always use coal here.’ Gabriel ended the exchange.”

The soicialist/environmentalist Tagesspiegel termed Gabriel’s remarks as an “éclat”.

Rapid shutdown of coal power “an illusion”

In the meantime, the online Spiegel reports today that Merkel’s influential Economics Minister is now in a hefty conflict with the country’s Ministry of Environment, which is pushing to reduce Germany’s CO2 emissions 40% compared to 1990 levels by 2020. Spiegel writes that would mean shutting down 15 to 20 coal power plants in a country where the energy supply is already strained. Gabriel is searching for ways to avoid this. Spiegel writes:

Der SPIEGEL quoted Gabriel with the words: It is ‘an illusion to believe that Germany could exit both nuclear energy and coal at the same time.’  Gabriel could imagine a postponement of the climate protection action plan, which is to be introduced in the Cabinet on December 3.”

Say what you want about socialist Gabriel, but this time, as Federal Economics Minister, he sees things very clearly and soberly.

Researcher On Climate Warming: “Ideological Science At Its Best” With “Cult-Like Status”

Canadian philosophical researcher Shawn Alli has posted a highly critical series titled: The CO2 Climate Change Cult Series.

Alli_2

Philosophy researcher, book author, Shawn Alli thinks global warming science has “cult-like status”. Photo source here.

Though he does not appear to be some famous academic professor, his series does poignantly bring up a number of inconvenient points that have leading climate scientists confounded.

Ideologies underpinning IPCC science

Alli sent me an e-mail asking if I’d look over Chapter 7 and 8, which I did. Today’s post focusses on Chapter 7, which starts off powerfully:

Many objective and impartial scientists believe that they have no ideologies and never work to prove what they want to prove. This is a nonsensical belief. Under the ideologies of racism and eugenics, Western-European scientists in the past intentionally prove what they want to prove. The same concept is true in the present. The ideologies of man-made CO2 climate change are underpinning the science behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). One example of this ideological science is the IPCC’s claim of the Himalayan glaciers disappearing in 2035. [1] It’s only because of climate skeptics and deniers that the IPCC retracts their nonsensical claim three years later. [2] But despite the admission of error the Chair of the IPCC Dr. Rajendra Pachauri refuses to apologize. [3] The fact that the public outrage surprises him and damages the IPCC’s credibility, [4] demonstrates that the IPCC is 100% out of touch with the global general public about climate change.

The reason why the error is such a large problem is because of two reasons: science and socio-economic-political implications. The CO2 cult holds the IPCC to the level of god-like status, forever defending their cause. This pushes CO2 cult believers to claim that the IPCC reports are the highest form of climate knowledge on the planet.”

If you don’t believe that leading climate journalists have been taken over by the cult, Alli presents a number of quotes from the Guardian’s George Monbiot, and from the Newsweek staff, who maintain that the science is rigorous like no other, and thus beyond dispute.

Hockey stick: Distortion of reality…”junk environmental ideological science at its best”

Alli also thinks Michael Mann’s hockey stick chart, in its attempt to remove the Medieval Warm Period, was “intentionally manipulating the global general public and distorting reality.” He adds:

But even if you dismiss the hockey stick graph argument and the fraudulent data from climate scientists, you have to face the reality that global warming ends in 1998. After years of voracious denials […] the IPCC finally admits the stall of global temperatures in kind terms in Working Group 1 of their fifth assessment.”

“junk…ideological science at its best

On the claim by the IPCC that man caused the warming from 1800 to 1998 and that the recent pause is due to natural variability, Alli calls this selective logic: “junk environmental ideological science at its best.”

Alli then writes how he posed three questions to leading (alarmist) climate scientists, such as Kevin TrenberthRichard Somerville, Tom Wigley, on whether they are surprised by the recent pause. In general they answer that they are not, and that the models continue to be right for the most part. Alli responds, focusing on Wigley’s response:

Professor Wigley points out that there’s nothing surprising about the temperature lag. I would correct him and claim that there’s nothing surprising about the temperature lag now, due to the passage of time; but in 1998 it would be very surprising.”

Indeed one only needs to look at the course of the 100+ models to see that the pause had never been expected.

Models “all guesswork”…”no way” they can be accurate

Alli also comments on the tweeking of models so that they better match the reality, i.e. “scientists are starting with a result and creating a model that proves it.” Alli gives this practice the deserved grade of “F”.

This is ideological science at its best. And this is what a lot of Western-European science is about, explaining past events through particular ideologies. “

Even more shocking is that Alli feels that the scientists “don’t understand chaos theory at all“, and sums up the models: “…there is absolutely no way that any current climate model can be accurate. It’s all guesswork based on past trends“.

Cult science

So why are scientists and activists so convinced by the science when it is so faulty? Alli thinks it gets down to the human need for a religion and purpose: “The issue of man-made CO2 climate change gives individuals an opportunity to justify their existence fighting a ‘righteous cause’ in the face of corrupt and greedy private interest energy groups.”

In the end, reacting to the fact that only 3 of 31 leading scientists and activists were willing to dismiss the claim that climate change leads to more violence, Alli sees this as evidence of a “cult-like status” in climate science.

Shawn Alli was educated at York University of Toronto and is the author of two books: Oil, the 4th Renewable Resource and Whistleblowers: True Patriots of Humanity.

 

German Climate Alarmists Deflated By GOP Election Sweep: “Could Not Have Come At A Worse Time”

Germany’s formidable green/climate movement is deeply deflated over the GOP’s grand midterm election success.

Especially the many German greens and socialists are struggling to fathom what happened and are only left to conclude that Americans must be just too stupid to appreciate all that President Obama and the Democrats have done and to understand the climate risks that threaten ahead.

For the reaction of Germany’s formidable climate alarmism movement, a good one is presented by klimaretter.info, an online alarmist site on climate and energy policy run by a motley crew of activist journalists with no scientific background.

“It could not have been any worse”

For the analysis of and reaction to the US midterm election results, klimaretter.info presents an interview with Liane Schalatek, climate and energy expert at the North American Office of the Heinrich Boll Foundation. The title of the interview: “It could not have been any worse“. Klimaretter.info writes in it’s introduction:

The election debacle by the Democrats in the USA is a catastrophe for climate protection. The outlook for a global climate treaty has dropped considerably.”

Well, that is indeed good news for the many and growing number among us who equate climate protection to climate swindle.

In the interview Frau Schalatek thinks it is likely the US Congress will move to cut EPA funding.

$85 million “a drop in the bucket”

On the $85 million spent on the election campaigns by environmental and climate protection organisations, klimaretter.info asks if perhaps that money could not have been better spent. Schalatek responds:

That amount of donations is only a drop in the bucket when you look at how much money flowed into the elections in total: over 3 billion dollars. Foremost from people with an anti-environment agenda. It’s a good thing that the environmental organisations stood up. The political weighting however clearly was against the environmental organisations.”

Don’t you love the smell of the enemy’s money burning? The 85 million probably hurt them more than it helped. Nothing like putting kookiness on display for the whole country to see.

Global climate treaty “to be a lot harder”

klimaretter.info asks if the chances of a binding climate treaty have now fallen. Schalatek:

Yes. It is now going to be a lot harder for Obama to advance ambitious national obligations.”

Schalatek also believes it is going to be a lot tougher for Obama to make commitments to the green climate funds because Congress has a say on the matter. She also believes that a GOP controlled Congress at best would agree only to an “extremely watered down” climate treaty that would have “little legal power and obligation“.

“…could not have come at a worse time”

Klimaretter comments that the election result “thus could not have come at a worse time“, just one year before Paris. And for advancing real climate policy, Schalatek thinks that “it’s a very negative signal” and confirms it indeed could not have come at a worse time.

Thank you, democracy!

 

Surprise! Austrian Winters Have Gotten 0.9°C Colder Since 1984…Confirmed By Independent Meteorologists

The online Salzburg Austria ORF site here writes: “Despite climate change, winters in the Salzburg mountains over the past 30 years have not gotten warmer, rather they have gotten colder.”

0.9°C drop since 1984

The ORF site writes that this is based on a study commissioned by the Schmittenhöhe Bahnen. The ORF site adds: “Independent meteorologists confirmed the trend“. The study elaborates further:

The mean temperature over the winter months at Schmittenhöhe has fallen  0.9°C since 1984. That is from minus 3.8 to minus 4,7 percent.”

Obviously the ORF writer was sloppy here and likely meant “degrees Celsius”, and not “percent”.

“Surprising result”

The ORF also writes that the Schmittenhöhe Bahnen – who commissioned the study – reacted by saying it is “a surprising result”. Board Chairman Erich Egger says he is relieved that winters have not gotten warmer and that the future of the ski industry is intact.

However the ORF quotes meteorologist Bernd Niedermoser of the Salzburg Weather Service, who reminds that there has been “a significant warming” over the last 130 years and that it occurs in cycles, and that there will always be “periods where it will be colder for a short time.”

Tell it to the modelers.

More snow thanks to “global warming”

Meanwhile Austrian site www.nachrichte.at writes that precipitation at the Pyhrn-Priel and Dachstein regions during the winter season has increased – in the form of snow. On the precipitation, it writes:

And because it is transported over to us by cold air masses from the North Sea, it comes down 90% as snow already at 1100 meters elevation.”

Yet, the Austrian alarmists refuse to let go of their climate change horror scenarios, insisting that by 2050 the “skiing fun will end” because of runaway global warming”.  The site sought out the opinion of Jürgen Schmude, Economics Geographer at the University of Munich:

Austria’s ski resorts could lose up to 30 days per year by then, should the average temperature indeed increase by 2°C.

 

EIKE: IPCC Synthesis Report “In Crass Contradiction To Almost Every Measurement And Trend In Nature”

The Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) presents a detailed analysis on the IPCC’s recently published final 40-page Synthesis Report released earlier this month.

Image source: IPCC

EIKE, however, concludes that the IPCC report is fraught with error and distortion. Author Klaus-Eckart Puls writes:

Not only does it contain major contradictions, simplifications and even falsehoods with respect to the earlier comprehensive partial reports, it is a stark contraction to almost every measurement and trend in nature. This is being noticed by event the alarmist tending media [3] : ‘Indeed while the previous climate reports [The 3 comprehensive reports of 2013/14] for the most part provided the science and the contradictions, the new Synthesis report suppresses most of the scientific findings.'”

Puls then provides a list contradictions, falsehoods and distortions stemming from the new Synthesis Report, all of which are refuted by measurements and facts which Puls provides:

1. air temperature
2. sea level rise
3. ocean temperature
4. storms
5. polar ice
6. extreme weather
7. crop yields
8. species extinctions
9. man is responsible

Puls summarizes (reiterating some of what he wrote in his introduction:

In the 40-page Summary for Policymakers [1] published in early November, the IPCC in large part contradicts the depictions and data in its own(!) comprehensive reports (several thousand pages) it released at the end of 2013 and early 2014. The summery-statements stand also in crass contradiction to almost every trend-measurement found in nature over the past 150 years.

For example the online SPIEGEL [3] writes: ‘Final IPCC Report: At the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change, Alarmism Comes before Accuracy’ … ‘The document is supposed to rationally inform on the science – instead it suppresses the central contradictions.’ … ‘Indeed while the previous climate reports [The 3 comprehensive reports of 2013/14] for the most part provided the science and the contradictions, the new Synthesis Report suppresses most of the scientific findings’.”

Thanks – that suffices!”

Good Luck Getting Kyoto II Ratified In The Senate Now! US Voters Deliver Massive Blow To Global Climate Treaty

UPDATE: Read Carbon Brief here for implications of GOP victory
===============================

When it comes to climate change policymaking, the proposed so-called global treaty designed to protect climate (i.e. the global temperature, precipitation amounts, pressures, relative humidities, wind speeds, etc.) now faces a formidable obstacle: a US Congress now in the hands of the GOP Party.

DRUDGE writes:

Republicans Take Congress
+7 +8? +9? Senate
The Dem Disaster

Germany’s Spiegel writes:

Debacle for Democrats in US Congress Elections
Goodbye, Mr. President

My understanding is the USA needs the consent of the US Senate before it can ratify any international treaty.

Of course President Obama could attempt circumventing Congress to enact a treaty, but that would merely confirm why voters punished his party in the first place: abuse of power.

Why Obama did not pass a climate treaty back in 2009 when he had the chance remains a mystery to me. Worse, in my view, President Obama squandered the chance to work together with the opposition and accept compromise on every issue, which is the way democracies are designed to work. Instead he obstinately stuck to ideological lines and, using Chocago style political tactics, tried to muscle his policy onto the entire country.

Backfired!

Let’s hope lessons are learned here.

 

Spiegel Slams: “At IPCC Alarmism Comes Before Accuracy”…IPCC “Gross Problems”…”Suppresses Important Findings”

A heated exchange has just taken place at Twitter between Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski and some of Germany’s leading climate alarmism politicians and ideologues who are pushing for a fast-track green coup d’état.

The row swirls around a critical opinion piece written by Bojanowski – on the roadmap-for-politicians IPCC final Synthesis Report. The Spiegel piece is titled: “Final IPCC Report: At the IPCC alarm comes before accuracy“.

In it Bojanowski identifies a number points where the IPCC misleads the public and needlessly sounds the alarms. At Twitter Bojanowski calls these points “gross problems” that “need to be discussed”.

In summary, the ever inquisitive Spiegel journalist writes that the IPCC final report “should rationally inform of the science  – rather it suppresses central contradictions“. He also adds that “the new synthesis report suppresses important scientific findings“.

Bojanowski brings up some gross examples of IPCC factual suppression and how the UN body made glaring contradictions. The first concerns the subject of species extinction. In the 2013 IPCC main report, no predictions were made on to what extent species were threatened, demonstrating that too little is known to make reliable forecasts. But the latest synthesis report claims species have already began dying off due to climate change.

Bojanowski also points out that the latest synthesis report writes of numerous species having been forced to relocate because of climate change. But the main 2013 report writes: “There’s very little confidence in the conclusion that already some species may have gone extinct due to climate change.”

Another misleading claim by the new synthesis report is that today’s climate change is happening faster than at any time from natural causes over the last 1 million years – thus stressing out species. But learned-geologist Bojanowski cites the main IPCC report’s real findings:

At the end of the ice age, as the first part of the UN climate report shows, in large parts of the world climate fluctuations of 10°C in 50 years, i.e. 20 times faster than in the 20th century, took place and large climate-caused species extinctions are not documented.”

The Spiegel journalist also writes how the IPCC is not really being truthful with its predictions for the future. In the new synthesis report for policymakers the IPCC warns of a 4°C warming by the end of the century, and that this will be a formidable threat to species. Here the IPCC even asserts “high confidence”.

However, Bojanowski reminds Spiegel readers what the experts wrote in the main IPCC report (translated from the German):

Climate models are unable to illustrate key processes with respect to species development which foremost impact the susceptibility of species with respect to climate change.”

In a nutshell Bojanowski comes down hard on the IPCC report – for blatantly putting alarmism ahead of scientific accuracy.

Some German activists and Green politcians have reacted irritably to Bojanowski’s article. Green Party honcho Dr. Hermann Ott tweeted:

…sad! Dear, we have discussed so often about climate change – for what?

2014 Sees Record Harvests Worldwide…Demolishing Gloomy Myth Global Warming Would Lead To Acute Crop Failures

It’s early November and now is a good time to look at some of this year’s global crop harvest results. Let’s recall that global warming models projected poor harvests and hunger in the future due to droughts (and floods).

But that is hardly the case…at least certainly for this year. And recall how Joe Bastardi last spring projected a “Garden of Eden” harvest for the US Great Plains. Looks like he was right. The story is similar many places worldwide, and not just the US.

10-foot corn

For example Bloomberg here reports of a record US corn harvest in 2014, writing:

From Ohio to Nebraska, thousands of field inspections this week during the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour show corn output in the U.S., the world’s top producer, will be 0.4 percent above the government’s estimate. Months of timely rains and mild weather created ideal growing conditions, leaving ears with more kernels than normal on 10-foot (3-meter) corn stalks and more seed pods on dark, green soy plants.”

All-time high of 3.631 billion bushels of soybean

Bloomberg also writes here that the US production of soybean “will jump 10 percent this year to an all-time high of 3.631 billion bushels, and inventories before the 2015 harvest will be double a year earlier.”

In Europe the story is the similar. Last May the online marktkompass here already wrote of record wheat harvests:

In all regions of Central and Eastern Europe the weather for growth was close to being optimal and the yield potential has drastically improved.”

“All-time records” in Europe

In Germany’s agricultural state of Mecklenburg West-Pomerania, corn and barley reached record harvests. The online bauwesta reports that both winter and summer barley harvests set all-time records. Overall across Europe Crop Site reports this year’s cereal harvest “has generally been strong in Europe and Ukraine“.

Doom and gloom media silent on bumper crop yields

Moreover, numerous analysts report of falling grain and commodity prices. All of this, of course, is great news for consumers and a planet that still has close to a billion people who do not get enough to eat. Yet the good news is generally not getting reported by the doom-and-gloom obsessed media.

“Bounty of wheat, barley and oats”

Almost every country one looks at in Europe, one is finding record bumper crops this year. The usually gloom-obsessed UK Guardian also reported in September on UK 2014 harvests:

Long sunny spells after a mild winter and early spring delivers a bounty of wheat, barley and oats. […] 2014 could be the biggest yield ever for wheat when the final data is released in October.”

If climate change is supposed to be resulting in poor harvests, higher food prices and acute hunger for the poor, as many experts have warned incessantly, then the opposite must mean that climate change is not happening at all, or that it is having a profoundly beneficial effect for man instead.

Glut of apples

The Guardian also reports of bumper apple harvests and that “growers still face losses due to glut of apples and supermarket price wars.” The Guardian adds, “A cold winter gave the trees a good rest, then plenty of rain – especially in August – helped plump up the fruit, and then a dry September allowed the picking to get started early.”

If anything, all the bumper crops are leading to only one single food crisis: the rock bottom prices farmers are getting for their crops!

“bumper world harvest this year”

thompsonslimited.com here reports that the bumper-crop low-price crisis has also not spared Canada for almost everything from apples to zucchini. It writes that the “world commodity prices are worryingly low for arable farmers following a bumper world harvest this year.”

Russia “in awash in grain”

www.martellcropprojections.com here writes that Russia “is awash in grain from a bumper harvest in the growing season just ended.  The 2014 grain harvest increased to 105 million tonnes threatening to break a record.”

The Crop Site also reports of record rice production in Bangladesh, and bumper maize harvests in Pakistan. Even Scotland’s 2014 cereal harvestis estimated to be the largest in 20 years, with favourable conditions expected to produce more than three million tonnes of cereals.”

So, if you are not moping about all the good news on this year’s global harvest, and failed predictions of catastrophe, and wish instead to celebrate the good news with glasses of cheer, the wine-searcher here reports that France is “looking forward to a bigger and better wine harvest“. Indeed all the natural ingredients needed for fermenting or brewing your favorite spirit appear to be in bountiful supply this year.

Visions of Ehrlichian-style widespread crop failures and mass starvations postponed yet again. And they show absolutely no signs of ever materializing any time soon.

In fact one could easily argue that the world is better fed today than at any time in human history. We can in part thank higher CO2 concentrations and warmer climate for that.

Data Contradict Warming Hypothesis: Relative Emissivity Is Not Declining As IPCC Models Predicted!

An Empirical Review of Recent Trends in the Greenhouse Effect

By Robin Pittwood, Kiwi Thinker

Abstract

The core of the human caused global warming proposition is that an increasing level of greenhouse gases acts to reduce heat loss from the planet making the atmosphere here warmer. The amount of warming anticipated by the IPCC models is from about one to several degrees C for a doubling of CO2 concentration.

But a conundrum has arisen lately:  While CO2 has continued rise significantly the temperature has not.  There has been no global warming since about 1997. Scientists on both sides of the debate have noticed this and have offered something like 55 explanations as to why this could be so. Some of those explanations lock into the dogma built into the IPCC models, taking for certain that the greenhouse effect is increasing, but because there is no atmospheric temperature rise, they then have to explain the retained heat is somewhere else.

Is the greenhouse effect occurring as the IPCC models propose?

This study analysed two important factors directly associated with the greenhouse effect, atmospheric temperature and outgoing radiation and finds that outgoing radiation has not declined. The missing heat has gone back to space as usual.  But more importantly the (lack of a) trend observed in an empirical derivation of the Stefan Boltzmann relative emissivity factor directly contradicts the greenhouse theory built into the IPCC models.

Article

Regular readers at any of the main climate change blogs will be aware that since about 1997 there has been nearly no global temperature rise. And they will know too, that this is despite atmospheric CO2 concentration continuing to rise. To date there are some 55 ideas to explain this slowdown in global warming. Some of the ‘explanations’ presume the so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ must still be increasing as the IPCC models calculate; it’s just that the heat has been hidden elsewhere, maybe deep in the ocean.

This study, based on 34 years of satellite data; outgoing long-wave infrared radiation (OLWIR) and temperature, demonstrates otherwise.

I used three data sets, OLWIR from NOAA, and the average of both UAH and RSS for global temperature.

I obtained monthly average OLWIR (W/m2) for each 2.5 degree latitude by 2.5 degree longitude area of the globe. After converting the netCDF files to Excel, I scaled each 2.5*2.5 area’s OLWIR to account for the varying size of its area, resulting in a global average OLWIR.  (There was some missing data mid 1994 to early 1995. I populated this by a linear interpolation).  The resulting annual average OLWIR is shown in the graph below for the years 1979 to 2012. A linear regression fit shows a generally increasing trend in OLWIR over this period.

Robin_1

The temperature data is also plotted on the graph below. A linear regression fit shows a generally increasing trend for the years 1979 to 2012.

The relationship between temperature and emitted radiation follows a universal law of physics, Stefan Boltzmann’s law states the emitted radiation is the product of the fourth power of absolute temperature and an emissivity factor. A reduction in the emissivity factor means less outgoing radiation for a given temperature.  That would indicate a stronger greenhouse effect.  An increase in the emissivity factor means more outgoing radiation for a given temperature.  That would indicate a more transparent atmosphere.  The study derived earth’s emissivity factor for each of the 34 years and the results displayed.

Using an average global temperature of 287 Kelvin added to the temperature anomaly, the relative emissivity has been derived for each year using the formula:

j / (k*T^4)

where j is OLWIR, k is the Stefan Boltzmann constant, and T is the temperature.

If the greenhouse effect was increasing, relative emissivity should be declining. A quick look at the graphs shows clearly this is not the case.

Robin_2

Our planet’s relative emissivity has been flat-lining, despite increasing CO2 concentration over the study period. The derived emissivity factor, being basically constant, directly contradicts all of the IPCC models. No increased greenhouse effect is observed.

Findings:

The two primary findings of this empirical study are:

    • Outgoing radiation has not declined over this period as expected by IPCC models. The missing heat has gone back to space – as usual and as per Stefan Boltzmann’s law, via OLWIR, and,
    • The increasing greenhouse effect expected by IPCC models, has not exposed itself. There has been no increased greenhouse effect over this period. [A closer inspection of the relative emissivity trend shows the atmosphere is even becoming a little more transparent – though little should be made of this given the variability of the data].

Conclusion:

The core of the human caused global warming proposition is that an increasing level of greenhouse gases acts to reduce heat loss from the planet making the atmosphere here warmer. But is the greenhouse effect occurring as the IPCC models propose? This study analysed two important factors directly associated with the greenhouse effect, atmospheric temperature and outgoing radiation and finds that outgoing radiation has not declined. The missing heat has gone back to space as usual.

But more importantly the (lack of a) trend observed in an empirical derivation of the Stefan Boltzmann relative emissivity factor directly contradicts the greenhouse theory built into the IPCC models.

The original post on this study may be found here.

Data Table:

Robin 3

 

Presentation By Professor Of Feminism: “Value Creation And Gender Division Of Labor In Climate Change”

I was out of town for the weekend, enjoying the record warm weekend, which is why the blogging was on the slow side. Now that I’m back, I see the world is still as kooky as ever. Here’s a short one from the DkS site:
===================================

Highly Urgent Topic: Presentation “Gender division of labor in climate change” at the University of Bremen on 12 November 2014
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P Gosselin)

On November 12, 2014 a colloquium by the artec research centre for sustainability is taking place at the University of Bremen at 4 pm. The colloquium focuses on a topic that has long been a pressing issue and has been the source of many sleepless nights:

Value creation and value appreciation: Gender division of labor in climate change
Speaker: Dr. Sybille Bauriedl, Bayreuth Academy of Advanced African Studies”

So what could possibly be behind this title? Is the suspected climate change going to lead men to finally getting off their lazy butts and helping out with the ironing and laundry? Or is the looming heat going to lead men to not being able to help out at all because they’ll be confined to sweating profusely on a hammock? Lots of questions, but no answers.

At the speaker’s website we happen to come across another important presentation from a year ago:

Social construction of climate change. How and what can feminist research contribute to gendered climate policy?”

This is something we have always asked ourselves. Or what about this presentation here by Bauriedl from 2012:

Climate justice and gender justice: women in the climate trap”

Women in the climate trap. The insidious climate catastrophe apparently has had the world of women in its sights. Unfortunately the site does not offer any presentation files, which we would have loved to have a look at.

It is truly interesting to observe where our tax dollars are going. For Ms Bauriedl and her occupation, it would certainly be catastrophic if it ever turned out that everyone had over-estimated climate change for years and if the dreaded catastrophe never materialized.

 

Coming Europe Winter: “Meteorologists Agree” It is “Going To Be Damned Cold!”…Early Siberia Snow Bodes Ill

When alarmist climate institutes roll out papers claiming global warming is going to cause severely cold winters, then you have to wonder if they know something is up and are acting preemptively to salvage their crumbling climate science, which not long ago predicted with high confidence balmy snowless winters.

A few reports have already come out indicating this winter could be a real doozy – at least for wide parts of North America. But now we are starting to see such reports popping up for Europe as well.

“Damned cold winter”

Now the Swiss online news site Blick here has an article warning of a “damned cold” winter. Blick begins:

Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts agree: This winter is going to be damned cold. Responsible for this is the early snow in Siberia.”

Blick describes how much of Siberia is already covered with snow, in some places by “up to a half meter”, and it’s only October. This claim is based on the latest NOAA snow cover data. The ECMWF also shows:

Siberian snow Nov 2 ecmwf_snowdepth_russia_41__4_(1)

Projected snow cover by the ECMWF. Much of Russia will be already covered by snow, providing the ideal breeding grounds for a powerful midwinter Siberian high. See sunriseswansong.wordpress.com.

Early Siberian snow – already snow covered!

But what does that have to do with the winter weather in Europe? Blick explains:

The earlier that snow is on the ground in Siberia, the stronger a Siberian high develops. This blows icy winds also to us in Switzerland.”

Looks like Europeans will have to get used to Russia exporting bitter cold instead of gas. If things develop so, then things could get nastilly interesting for Europe and its winter energy needs. Not to worry though. The old continent has much green energy capacity, which will especially help out (in the springtime when the sun is high enough to power solar panels).

“Warmest year on record” sees early Siberian snow, forecasts of severe winter?

This cold winter development seems to fly in the face of one particular dataset, which claimed 2014 was on track to be “the hottest on record”. Swiss Radio here also reports on how Siberian snow can impact Europe’s winters:

The story is simple: the earlier snow covers the ground in Siberia, the colder it gets there at the start of winter. And the colder it gets in Siberia at the start of winter, the stronger and more powerful the Siberian high becomes in mid winter. And when the Siberian high is strong, then we get invasions of cold air masses. The winter will be cold.”

SRF adds that “one has to go back a few years” to find so much snow in Siberia this early. The SRF even links to a paper on the subject.

Massive Siberian snow also bodes ill for North American winter

weathersavior.com writes here as well:

The rapid increase of snow cover across Siberia in October usually leads to a potentially colder winter in the US due to a negative Arctic Oscillation. A negative AO will allow Arctic air to infiltrate the U.S and is one of the driving factors for snow lovers in the Northeastern U.S.”

Meanwhile, sunriseswansong.wordpress.com writes that the early Siberian snows are what is needed for “breeding bitter cold” and that Joe Bastardi says the current Northern Hemisphere snow cover for this time of year is the 3rd highest!

Finally Kirk Mellish writes that the “Eurasia snowfall is off to a record fast start, which is historically a harbinger of cold winters as shown by research by Dr. Cohen of MIT. It does not guarantee it, but makes it more likely.”

No one can know how the winter will really pan out, and other outcomes just can’t be ruled out. But one thing is sure: the present. And it is showing that the northern hemisphere winter is off to a really nasty start.

Also read kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/.

 

More Glacier Studies Confirm Roman And Medieval Warm Periods Were Just As Warm As Today

New studies confirm: Glaciers in the Alps already had “fevers” during the Roman and Medieval warm periods
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited, condensed by P Gosselin)

Everywhere activists and climate alarmists are claiming climate change is happening faster than ever and that the earth is dangerously approaching a tipping point. For example Greenpeace likes to say that the glaciers are actually the “fever thermometers” measuring the health of the planet and that their melting tells the story of inevitable total meltdown. For example in the Alps glaciers have receded by almost a half since the year 1850. Greenpeace writes:

Foremost since the 1990s the rate of melt has increased and is expected to rise over the coming years: Today’s melting is being caused by greenhouse gas emissions from 30 years ago.”

But is glacier melt really something new and unexpected?

Greenpeace uses the Alps as a telltale example. It is precisely there that we want to carry out a fact-check. Firstly one has to wonder why the glacier melt in the Alps began already way back in 1850 – when anthropogenic CO2 couldn’t have played any significant role. This was already determined by geologist Albert Schreiner in 1997 in his textbook “Introduction to Quatenary  Geology“ (p. 188, Fig. 91).

One finds even greater factual headaches when going back through the history of the climate for the last several thousand years. Already in earlier articles we wrote that the Alps glacier melted considerably during earlier warm periods.

The melt phases during the Medieval Warm Period 1000 years ago and during the Roman Warm Period 2000 years ago have been well documented (see our blog articles here and here. In April 2014 two more additional papers were published, which impressively confirmed the natural glacier dynamics.

In the Quaternary Science Reviews appeared a paper authored by a team led by Anaëlle Simonneau of the French University Orléans, which reconstructed the glacier movements in the French Alps over the last thousands of years. Here the scientists documented several glacier melt phases, which unsurprisingly included the Roman and Medieval warm periods (Figure1). What follows is an excerpt from the abstract:

Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution and glacial fluctuations at high-altitude in the western French Alps are reconstructed based on a multiproxy approach within Lake Blanc Huez (2550 m a.s.l.) drainage basin.  […] periods of reduced glacial activities dated from the Early Bronze Age (ca 3870–3770 cal BP), the Iron Age (ca 2220–2150 cal BP), the Roman period (ca AD115–330) and the Medieval Warm Period (ca AD760–1160).”

Figure 1: Reconstruction of glacier activity in the French Alps. The glacier advances are shown in blue and melt periods in red. The scale is in 1000s of years before today. The Medieval Warm Period is at 1 (=1000 years before today), the Roman Warm Period is at 2 (=2000 years before today). Moreover: In the time from 6000 to 9000 years before today there was massive glacier melting. Source: Simonneau et al. 2014.

A second paper comes from Martin Lüthi of the University of Zurich, appearing in The Cryosphere. It contains a reconstruction of the Alps glacier history for the last 1600 years. Interestingly the seven examined glaciers show conditions during the Medieval Warm Period that were similar in length as today (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Length changes in Alps glaciers over the past 1600 years. The blue negative vertical bars depict advancing glaciers while the red bars represent retreating glaciers. From Lüthi 2014.

Despite these proven natural glacier cycles, Greenpeace Greenpeace predicts an early death and terrible consequences for the Alps:

Glacier scientists anticipate an almost complete melting in this century. There are 5000 glaciers in the Alps. When many of them are permanently melted, there could be a sensitive collapse in the water supply. Glaciers store drinking water.

A scary theory. However the glaciers are ignoring all the catastrophe predictions and even started to grow once again in 2013, see here. And in the Swiss Alps snow amounts since 2000 have unexpectedly been on the rise.

A look back at the climate history reveals that the alarmist stories for the Alps are nothing but a tempest in a teapot. It’s all happened before. Obviously the fear-mongers have failed to look beyond 150 years ago. How much longer can they keep this up without serious science pushing back?

Quartiary

Germany Says “Nein” To Vegetarianism To Save Climate – Green Party Abandons “Veggie-Day” Drive

The primary drive behind the Green Movement is the attempt to seize the power to control human behavior and to enforce it with a system of severe punishment and reward.

Human behavior can be modified to some extent, as long as the change is gradual, involves some reward and does not entail unreasonable sacrifice. But once you expect too much from the public, there’s a high chance of violent revolt and the movement backfiring.

Nikolaus Blome at Spiegel reports this is precisely what has happened to the German Greens recently in their attempt to reduce meat consumption by forcing the public to swallow a nationwide weekly “Veggie Day”, where every Thursday German public cafeterias would serve up only vegetarian dishes.

Spiegel last year wrote:

Veggie Day’ should link to the tradition of a meatless Friday and promote health, animal and climate protection, Green Party leading candidate Katrin Göring-Eckardt has pushed.”

The public reacted almost instantly and handed the Germans Greens a series of costly election day defeats. Criticism was harsh from all sides. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats blasted the food nannies, calling the agenda “paternalism” and a move towards a federal “republic of bans”. Even the German Communist Links Party warned of a “green upbringing dictatorship

What was meant to be a noble planet-rescue mission by the Greens, who thought they had tapped into a new trend sweeping across the country, turned into a political flop. Apparently Germans are not ready to part from their beloved national food icons: schnitzel and bratwurst. The German Green Party has since been forced to withdraw their “Veggie Day” from its political agenda.

Spiegel writes the Greens will be formally adopting a new position on nutrition. Spiegel writes:

In the new party program the following sentence will be included in early November: ‘What I eat and what I don’t eat shall be decided by my own taste.'”

In its online poll, over 56% of the more than 15,000 Spiegel readers who voted checked off:“Everyone should be allowed to eat as much meat as he she wishes”, while 21% checked: “Excessive meat consumption is responsible for climate change and the suffering of millions of animals.”

Goes to show: politicians may think they can shove whatever they want down the throats of the public, but in the end, more often than not, it just gets coughed right back up.

 

Climate Witchcraft Booms: Global WARMING To Cause More Severe Winters…But Green Energies Causing COOLING!

The global warmists are in a disarray vortex. Their science now insists that it is both cooling and warming – at the same time!

In the complex, convoluted and clashing parallel worlds of the global warming alarmists, everything is possible. Physical laws are bent, twisted, completely redefined, or ignored altogether with every passing day.

More of anything proves warming, as so does less of the same.

New paper from Japan forecasts colder winters

Despite the dozens of predictions of warming winters coming from the global warming alarmists just 5 years ago and earlier, they have recently turned on a dime and are now projecting cold, snowy winters because of global warming. This once again is being reiterated in a new Japanese paper and echoed by number one German alarmist site Klimaretter (Climate Rescuers).

Severe winter probability “will double”!

Klimaretter writes:

Global warming is leading to a contradictory effect: Already today the risk of a colder than average winter is higher than it was a few decades ago.”

Later it writes:

And this trend is expected to continue over the coming decades: The probability of more severe winters in Europe and North Asia will double because of climate change. This is what Japanese scientists are projecting in Nature Geoscience.”

Sound Orwellian? For the propagandist Klimaretter, no science is too absurd to believe – so long as it’s catastrophist. If a Japanese paper claims so or if the climate models of the Alfred Wegener Institute and the Potsdam Institute looking 50 years into the future say so, then it’s good enough for them (never mind these models have already got the first 20 years all wrong).

Green energy has stopped global warming?

Not only is global warming now responsible for the higher risk of cold winters, but also the recent warming pause (which proves warming) is now being attributed to a successful green energy revolution. Having a very hard time explaining the recent warming pause to the public and realizing that attributing it to warming is a tough sell to the public, a spooked UK Energy Minister Baroness Sandip Verma has just come up with a better explanation for the unforeseen pause: the green energy revolution is likely already having a cooling effect on the planet and is already saving it (never mind that CO2 concentrations and fossil fuel burning are rising unabated).

Unfortunately Verma’s explanation is just as absurd as the first one.

Medieval witchcraft and rain dancing

It’s increasingly obvious that government officials are becoming embarrassed by the unexpected global warming pause and are desperate to explain it without losing face. Like rain dancers and witches claiming their acts have produced the desired result, British pols are now asking us to believe that the act of erecting windmills and covering rooftops with solar panels has pleased the climate gods – and so the warming has stopped.

The real problem, however, is that the global warming alarmists are no longer able to get their stories straight and are falling over themselves in their panicked scramble to explain their already failed model predictions. While some claim that cooling is caused by a real global warming, others are admitting that the real warming has really stopped, and done so because of the green energies they’ve wisely introduced! The warmists are in disarray.

So it’s little wonder Weather Channel founder John Coleman calls it all “incredible bad bad science” and that Climate Depot calls it “Medieval witchcraft“.