Vaccinated 27x More Likely To Be Symptomatically Infected Than Unvaccinated Who’ve Had COVID

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A shocking new study from Israel compares the protection offered by vaccine-induced immunity versus natural immunity from a previous COVID-19 infection and finds the latter offers far more robust protection from infection, symptomatic disease, and hospitalization.

Natural immunity confers  much longer lasting protection

Directly comparing 16,215 previously COVID-19 infected individuals to 16,215 fully vaccinated individuals, 10 physicians  (Gazit et al., 2021) preliminarily report (pre-print) fully vaccinated people are (a) 13 times more likely to be infected with COVID-19, (b) 27 times more likely to be symptomatically infected, and (c) 8 times more likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated people with a prior COVID infection (natural immunity).

“This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity.”

Image Source: Gazit et al., 2021

Other studies (Dan et al., 2021, Turner et al., 2021) have also indicated natural immunity obtained from a prior infection affords long-lasting, even “lifetime” anti-body protection from re-infection, or that “individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination” (Shrestha et al., 2021).

Image Source: Turner et al., 2021

Image Source: Washington University press release for Turner et al., 2021

Image Source: Shrestha et al., 2021

Vaccine effectiveness declines 56% within just 70 days

A new study published in The Lancet reports an initial surge of antibody protection for those who have received the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

Unfortunately, within weeks after the last shot, vaccine effectiveness begins to dramatically decline. In just 2½ months, Pfizer vaccine antibody levels have plummeted by 56%.

Image Source: press release for Shrotri et al., 2021

An “exponential decrease” in vaccine effectiveness of up to 40% per month after last shot

Another new study highlights the precipitous drop in antibody protection almost immediately following getting jabbed for the second time.

While those with natural immunity from a prior COVID-19 infection (convalescents) lose <5% antibody protection per month after a COVID-19 infection, vaccinated-only individuals lose up to 40% of their immunity protection every month after their last shot.

At this pace, the artificial immunity afforded by vaccines wears off within a few months.

Image Source: Israel et al., 2021

Catch-22?

If strong and lasting protection from symptomatic disease, hospitalization, and death favors natural infection with COVID-19 over vaccination, then an understandable, “Catch-22” objection would be that it is still worse to be infected with COVID-19 than injected with the various immunizing vaccines available.

But here is a larger context worth considering.

Underestimating the prevalence of COVID-19 infections vastly overestimates the fatality rate

Throughout 2020 several studies emerged assessing the actual prevalence COVID-19 infections in communities from antibody tests rather than just relying upon the number of confirmed cases. Because up to 96% of individuals contracting COVID-19 may have no symptoms, it is quite common for those infected with COVID-19 to not even know it. Therefore the prevalence – or number of individuals who have actually had COVID – has been assessed to be substantially higher in communities than when only using the number of confirmed cases suggests.

In Santa Clara, California, for example, the prevalence of COVID was assessed to be ~53,000 cases when extrapolating the assessed number of people with COVID-19 antibodies (seroprevalence). Instead of ~53,000, the number of confirmed cases in Santa Clara at the time of the study was 948, which is “56-fold lower than the number of infections predicted by this study” (Bendavid et al., 2021).

Another study (Doi et al., 2021) suggested the prevalence was “396 to 858-fold more than confirmed cases with PCR testing.”

With a much higher prevalence comes a much lower number of deaths per infection, or infection fatality rate (IFR).

“In conclusion, our findings imply that ≈518,000 persons in Guilan Province may have been infected with SARS-COV-2 as of April 19, 2020, which is substantially higher than the 1,600 cumulative confirmed cases recorded. As of May 3, if we assume a 3-week lag from time of infection to death, 625 persons had died of confirmed COVID-19 in Guilan Province. This number would correspond to an infection-fatality rate of 0.12%[Shakiba et al., 2020].

The global infection fatality rate for COVID-19 is 0.23%

According to a highly-cited synthesis of 61 studies from 51 locations across the globe using antibody (seroprevalence) data (Ioannidis, 2021), the median infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 (without vaccine intervention) has been determined to be 0.23% for all ages, and 0.05% (1 in 2000) for individuals under 70 years old.

Image Source: Ioannidis, 2021

The IFR for seasonal to pandemic flu, 0.1% to 0.67%, is similar to COVID-19 IFR

COVID-19’s 0.23% infection fatality rate is in the middle of the range of IFR estimates for seasonal (~0.1%) to “pandemic” influenza (i.e., 0.67% for the 1957-’58 “Asian flu” pandemic).

Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Robert Redfield, CDC Director (US), published a NEJM paper in late February, 2020, correctly predicting “the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)”.

Image Source: Fauci et al., 2020

Image Source: Nickol and Kindrachuk, 2019

Studies: vaccines may actually be enhancing, not neutralizing, COVID variants and spread

Disturbing trends from across the globe, especially in highly-vaccinated countries like Israel, Iceland, and the UK, suggest new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among the fully vaccinated have been rising dramatically since about mid-July. A “pandemic of the vaccinated” phenomenon has just recently (August) begun making its way into the United States.

Within the last week, two more studies (Liu et al., 2021, Yahi et al., 2021) suggest the more recent variants (Delta) are resisting vaccine neutralization. Worse, current vaccines may even enhance COVID’s Delta variant’s infectivity by spawning more resistant mutations.

“[T]he emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants may tip the scales in favor of infection enhancement. Our structural and modeling data suggest that it might be indeed the case for Delta variants” [Yahi et al., 2021].

Furthermore, “boosters,” or third shots, may actually “boost enhancing anti-bodies” more than neutralizing antibodies (Liu et al., 2021).

In other words, vaccines may be worsening the current COVID surge.

Image Source: Liu et al., 2021

“85-90% of the hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated people”

In late July Israeli Minister of Health data suggested the vaccines’ effectiveness had fallen from the advertised >90% to 39%. It may be even lower now.

Here are some recent headlines from across the globe documenting the burgeoning pandemic of the fully vaccinated.

Image Source: VISIONTIMES.com

Image Sources: Boston Globe, Boston Globe, Reuters

Image Source: Wadman, 2021

 

The pandemic of the fully vaccinated has just recently begun permeating the USA

The percentage of new COVID cases and deaths represented by the fully vaccinated used to be in the low single digits in June and into July. But in the last few weeks in the USA’s most vaccinated states (Oregon, Vermont), 20-40% of new cases and deaths are fully vaccinated individuals.

Image Source: OPB.org and worldofmeters.info

Image Source: vtdigger

Image Source: PlanetPrinceton

Since February, 75% of COVID-19 deaths in England have been vaccinated

Because deaths are the most important metric in assessing pandemic trends, the data out of England may be most concerning.

Image Source: worldometers

Image Source: Public Health England
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Adjusting To Warm, NASA Data Alterations Change Cooling To Warming In Ireland, Greece

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

Today we look at the NASA temperature data from Ireland and compare the GHCN Version unadjusted to the plots of the GHCN Version 4 adjusted and homogenized.

Here’s how they compare:

Data: NASA GISS

Greece is another example

What follows next are side-by-side plots of two stations: V4 unadjusted and V4 adjusted-homogenized:

Data: NASA GISS

The two GHCN V4 unadjusted mean annual temperature data plots of the respective stations clearly show a cooling trend.

But then NASA altered the data for the two Greek stations and named the two new data sets “V4 adjusted-homogenized”.

Once again the adjustments produce warming. Every time the alterations lead to warming.

Makedonia:

Crisis fabrication

Recently one young British chap said it seems to be all about creating states of emergency in order to skirt the rules of law (click on video):

A state of emergency lets a government skirt the law. So if you want to skirt the law, then just create a state of emergency. With the climate emergency, this is easily done simply by rewriting the data.




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Sea Levels Near B.C. Canada Were 90 Meters Higher Than Today 14,500 Years Ago

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A new study suggests British Columbia (Canada) relative sea levels remained 10 meters higher than they are today until they fell to their present levels in the last ~1800 years. Two other new studies suggest sea levels were still 0.8 to 1 meter higher than today during the Medieval Warm Period.

After the peak of the last glacial about 20,000 years ago, relative sea levels subsequently rose from 120 meters below modern sea levels to heights of 90 meters above today’s by ~14,500 years ago in the Douglas Channel near British Columbia, Canada (Letham et al., 2021).

Sea levels proceeded to fall 75 to 80 meters over the next 3000 years, or about -2.5 meters per century (-25 mm/yr), and then they remained 10-15 m above present for the next ~9000 years.

We determine that central Douglas Channel was ice-free following the Last Glacial Maximum by 14,500 BP and RSL was at least 90 m higher than today. Isostatic rebound caused RSL to fall to 21 m asl by 11,500 BP, though there may have been a glacial re-advance that would have paused RSL fall around the beginning of the Younger Dryas. RSL fell to 10–15 m asl by 10,000 BP, and continued to drop at a slower rate towards its current position, which it reached by ∼1800 years ago.”

Image Source: Letham et al., 2021

Steffen et al., 2020 proposed relative sea levels peaked at 32 meters above today’s levels in Nanotalik (southern Greenland) during the latter stages of the last ice age (13,800 years ago).

Image Source: Steffen et al., 2020

Sea levels were reportedly about 40 meters higher than today 15,000 years ago along the coasts of western Norway (Bondevik et al., 2019).

Image Source: Bondevik et al., 2019

For the Southern Hemisphere, a 2011 study (Watcham et al.) reported Antarctica’s sea levels were at least 15 meters above today’s 9000 years ago. Falling sea levels have been ongoing since then, with an especially pronounced acceleration in declining sea levels in the last 500 years.

Image Source: Watcham et al., 2011

Two more new studies indicate the relative sea levels along the coasts of Bangladesh (Haque and Hoyanagi, 2021) and South China Sea (Yan et al., 2021) were still about 0.8 to 1.2 meters higher than today’s during the Medieval Warm Period.

None of these studies have sea level trajectories that even remotely align with changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration that ranged from 230 ppm 14,500 years ago to 270 ppm during the Medieval Warm Period.

Haque and Hoyanagi, 2021

“This study illustrates the influences of sea-level on the depositional process during the last 1000 years of the southwestern delta, Bangladesh. … During the 850–1300 AD, RSL [relative sea level] was reached up to +80 cm higher than the present level where tidal-influenced bioturbated light yellow to gray mud deposited in the upper delta plain area. RSL was dropped up to −110 cm during 1300–1850 AD.”

Yan et al., 2021

“Beachrock is considered a good archive for past sea-levels because of its unique formation position (intertidal zone). To evaluate sea-level history in the northern South China Sea, three well-preserved beachrock outcrops (Beigang, Gongshanbei, and Hengling) at Weizhou Island, northern South China Sea were selected to examine their relative elevation, sedimentological, mineralogical, and geochemical characteristics. Acropora branches with well-preserved surface micro-structures were selected from the beachrocks and used to determine the ages of these beachrocks via U-series dating. The results show that the beachrocks are composed of coral reef sediments, terrigenous clastics, volcanic clastics, and various calcite cements. These sediments accumulated in the intertidal zone of Weizhou Island were then cemented in a meteoric water environment. The U-series ages of beachrocks from Beigang, Gongshanbei, and Hengling are 1712–768 ca. BP, 1766–1070 ca. BP, and 1493–604 ca. BP (before 1950 AD) respectively. Their elevations are 0.91–1.16 m, 0.95–1.24 m, and 0.82–1.17 m higher than the modern homologous sedimentary zones, respectively. Therefore, we concluded that the sea-level in the Meghalayan age (1766–604 ca. BP) was 0.82–1.24 m higher than the present, and that the sea-level over this period showed a declining trend.”
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Critical Solar Factors Ignored…IPCC AR6 Covers Up Scientific Flaws In Climate Models

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Scientific flaws in IPCC climate models and the IPCC AR6 problems cover-up…IPCC climate models ignore the strong increase in solar radiation since 2001

By Prof. Antero Ollila

According to the latest IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6), the observed temperature increase and the calculated temperature increase according to climate models have been almost the same 1.3 °C from 1750 to 2020.  The report shows a strong positive trend in solar shortwave radiation from 9/2000 to  6/2017, but its impact has been omitted in post-2000 warming calculations which explains the high temperatures since El Nino of 2015-2016.

For example, the temperature effect in 2019 is about 0.7 °C according to the AR6 science. Actually, the IPCC models give a 2019 temperature increase of 2.0°C (1.3°C + 0.7°C). This 54 percent error is due to the positive water feedback applied in climate models, which doubles the impact of other climate forcings and which, according to this natural experiment by climate, does not exist.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 32% since 1750. According to the AR6, this is only due to man-made anthropogenic emissions staying there (remain, accumulate) by an average of 44% per year and the rest has been absorbed by oceans and vegetation.

Approximately 25% of the atmospheric carbon dioxide changes annually from the oceans and vegetation. As a result, less than 6% of the initial amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere remains after 10 years, and therefore the increased amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere cannot be entirely anthropogenic origin with a permille value of -28%. The IPCC remains silent on permille values, as in the AR6 there is no word “permille”, which is a measure of the ratio of carbon isotopes and it has been used to analyze the origin of carbon dioxide, suitable for validating carbon cycle models.

Cover-up

The cover-up of this issue continues with the anthropogenic carbon dioxide lifetime in the atmosphere, which is now vaguely from hundreds of years to thousands of years. The removal rate of radioactive carbon from the atmosphere (a perfect tracer test for anthropogenic carbon dioxide) after 1964 is only 64 years. The recovery time of the total atmospheric amount of carbon dioxide to the level of 1750 can be estimated to be similar to that of its accumulation period, i.e. just under 300 years.

The AR6 report no longer shows the IPCC’s very own definition of the greenhouse effect, except in the glossary. The definition no longer contains the description for how greenhouse gas absorption of 158 Wm-2, which causes the greenhouse effect, creates downward infrared radiation downwards on the ground of 342 Wm-2. This is against fundamental physical laws because energy comes from nothing. The radiation to the surface consists of four energy fluxes, which according to the IPCC’s energy balance are: greenhouse gas absorption of 158 Wm-2, latent water heat 82 Wm-2, sensible heat (warm air) 21 Wm-2, and solar radiation absorption in the atmosphere 80 Wm-2. The three firstly mentioned energy fluxes totaling 261 Wm-2 maintain the greenhouse effect.

Fudging the forcings

By distorting the size of the greenhouse effect to the absorption of greenhouse gases alone, the IPCC  is able to increase the contribution of carbon dioxide in the greenhouse effect from approximately 7,5% to 19%, and the temperature effect from 2.5°C  to 6.3°C. This also means that the equations used by the IPCC to calculate the radiation forcing values and the global warming impacts of carbon dioxide for increasing carbon dioxide concentrations are not in line with the contribution of carbon dioxide in the greenhouse effect.

The IPCC’s science as the basis on climate change in the Paris Agreement gives a strongly exaggerated warming capability to carbon dioxide. In 2019, the limit of 2 degrees was already exceeded according to the IPCC’s climate models.

Source: Antero Ollila, Adj. Prof. Aalto University (Emer.), aveollila@yahoo.com, Phone +358 44 2437365
More information: https://www.climatexam.com/single-post/scientific-flaws-in-ipcc-climate-models-and-the-cover-up-of-problems-in-the-ipcc-ar6




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Strong Demand For Jackets…Northern Europe Sees Very Little Midsummer Warming Over Past 2 Decades

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

Has anyone ever wondered why many Swedes like going south for their summer holidays? 

Today to answer that question, we look at the July, 2021, mean temperature data for the stations in northern Europe for which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have enough data.

Remember, global warming is said to be most visible at the far northern and Arctic regions, so northern Europe in places like Scandinavia should be showing signs of warming over the past 2 decades. But that isn’t the case.

All the plotted data below are from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Sweden

First we look at the mean July temperatures at 6 stations in Sweden, home of global warming alarmist teenager, Greta Thunberg:

Since July 1997, three of 6 stations have shown no warming. Taken altogether, midsummer in Sweden is showing nothing unusual happening in terms of mean temperature.

Norway

The JMA has sufficient data for meaningful plots for 11 stations in Norway, Greta Thunberg’s neighbor to the west, which is located next to the far northern Atlantic and Arctic oceans:

Here as well we see nothing unusual going on, except that it is not warming up as predicted.

Six of 11 stations saw no July warming in Norway in 2021, going back 20 years. There is no reason to panic. Panic, by the way, is what lets them control populations. By not panicking, you’ll get the alarmists to panic about losing hold on their panic-based power.

Finland

Tabulating the data from the 6 stations for which the JMA has sufficient data for meaningful plots, Finland also has seen no notable mid-summer warming in almost a quarter century:

Four of 6 stations in Finland show cooling or no meaningful July warming at all. Taken altogether, there’s probably in fact a slight amount of cooling in July.

As readers will note, mean July temperatures over northern Europe are usually deep into the teens Celsius, meaning Greta can expect having to always keep warm clothing at hand year-round – for the rest of her life.




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New Study: Retreating East Greenland Glaciers Uncover Plant Debris Dating To The 16th – 17th Centuries

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Exposed moss and willow shrubs buried beneath today’s receding East Greenland glaciers can be dated to 400 to 500 years ago, suggesting this period (the early Little Ice Age) was as-warm or warmer than today.

It is widely accepted that Greenland’s surface temperatures were several degrees warmer (McFarlin et al., 2018, Axford et al., 2021) and ice volume and extent much smaller (Nielsen et al., 2018, Weiser et al., 2021),  throughout nearly all of the last 8,000 to 10,000 years.

Image Source: Weiser et al., 2021

What may not yet be widely accepted is the conclusion that the modern temperatures and ice extent still fall within the range of a Holocene “cold stage” rather than a warm stage.

A new study documents a much warmer-than-today Early and Middle Holocene in East Greenland, a time when ice caps were “absent” or far less extensive than they are presently. Plant remains buried under retreating glaciers in East Greenland affirm these locations were not covered in glaciers as recently as 400 to 500 years ago.

But the authors also report there were occasionally brief “cold stages” during the Holocene when Greenland’s glacier extent advanced to today’s levels.

“…Renland Ice Cap briefly reach[ed] extents during cold phases that may have been similar to today.”

This suggests that the modern temperatures and ice volumes fall within the range of a “cold stage” too.

Image Source: Medford et al., 2021



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Two Dozen Top Scientists: IPCC “Premature” Blaming CO2 Emissions…Warming Mostly From Natural Cycles

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How much is the Sun’s influence? An ongoing debate

Center for Environmental Research & Earth Sciences

Most of the energy in the Earth’s atmosphere comes from the Sun. This new study found that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) only considered a small subset of the published TSI datasets when they assessed the role of the Sun in climate change and that this subset only included “low solar variability” datasets. As a result, the IPCC was premature in ruling out a substantial role for the Sun in recent climate change.

A diverse expert panel of global scientists finds blaming climate change mostly on greenhouse gas emissions was premature. Their findings contradict the UN IPCC’s conclusion, which the study shows, is grounded in narrow and incomplete data about the Sun’s total solar irradiance.

The paper by 23 experts in the fields of solar physics and of climate science from 14 different countries is published in the peer-reviewed journal  (RAA). The paper, which is the most comprehensive to date, carries out an analysis of the 16 most prominent published solar output datasets, including those used by the IPCC.

Scientists come to opposite conclusions recent climate change causes 

The researchers compared them to 26 different estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th century (sorted into five categories), including the datasets used by the IPCC. They focused on the Northern Hemisphere since the available data for the early 20th century and earlier is much more limited for the Southern Hemisphere, but their results can be generalized for global temperatures.

The study found that the scientists come to opposite conclusions about the causes of recent climate change depending on which datasets they consider. For instance, in the graphs above, the panels on the left lead to the conclusion that global temperature changes since the mid-19th century have been mostly due to human-caused emissions, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), i.e., the conclusion reached by the UN IPCC reports.

Warming due mostly to natural cycles

In contrast, the panels on the right lead to the exact opposite conclusion, i.e., that the global temperature changes since the mid-19th century have been mostly due to  cycles, chiefly long-term changes in the energy emitted by the Sun.

Both sets of panels are based on published scientific data, but each uses different datasets and assumptions. On the left, it is assumed that the available temperature records are unaffected by the urban heat island problem, and so all stations are used, whether urban or rural. On the right, only rural stations are used. Meanwhile, on the left, solar output is modelled using the low variability dataset that has been chosen for the IPCC’s upcoming (2021/2022) 6th Assessment Reports. This implies zero contribution from natural factors to the long-term warming. On the right, solar output is modeled using a high variability dataset used by the team in charge of NASA’s ACRIM sun-monitoring satellites. This implies that most, if not all, of the long-term temperature changes are due to natural factors.

“The IPCC is mandated to find a consensus on the causes of climate change. I understand the political usefulness of having a consensus view in that it makes things easier for politicians. However, science doesn’t work by consensus. In fact, science thrives best when scientists are allowed to disagree with each other and to investigate the various reasons for disagreement, says Dr. Ronan Connolly, lead author of the study, at the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES). “I fear that by effectively only considering the datasets and studies that support their chosen narrative, the IPCC have seriously hampered scientific progress into genuinely understanding the causes of recent and future climate change. I am particularly disturbed by their inability to satisfactorily explain the rural temperature trends.”

The 68 page review (18 figures, 2 tables and more than 500 references) explicitly avoided the IPCC’s consensus-driven approach in that the authors agreed to emphasize where dissenting scientific opinions exist as well as where there is scientific agreement. Indeed, each of the co-authors has different scientific opinions on many of the issues discussed, but they agreed for this paper to fairly present the competing arguments among the scientific community for each of these issues, and let the reader make up their own mind. Several co-authors spoke of how this process of objectively reviewing the pros and cons of competing scientific arguments for the paper has given them fresh ideas for their own future research. The authors also spoke of how the IPCC reports would have more scientific validity if the IPCC started to adopt this non-consensus driven approach.

The full citation for the study is:

R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, C. J. Butler, R. G. Cionco, A. G. Elias, V. M. Fedorov, H. Harde, G. W. Henry, D. V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D. R. Legates, S. Luning, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, H. van Loon, V. M. Velasco Herrera, R. C. Willson, H. Yan (晏宏) and W. Zhang (2021). How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate. , doi: 10.1088/1674–4527/21/6/131.




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New Study: 2000-Year Precipitation Reconstructions Expose Climate Models Still Of Junk Grade

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A new study by Atwood et al (2021) published in the journal of Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology found there’s “poor agreement” between precipitation reconstructions and model simulations over the past 2000 years. This means future projections made by current models are unreliable. 

Die kalte Sonne here reports on a team of scientists who examined 67 tropical hydroclimate records from 55 sites around the world. The key points:

Models and reconstructions don’t agree

These comprehensive reconstructions show that from 800 to 1000 CE there was a pronounced drying event relative from the eastern Pacific and parts of Mesoamerica.

Also the period “1400–1700 CE is marked by pronounced hydroclimate changes across the tropics, including dry and/or isotopically enriched conditions in South and East Asia, wet and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the central Andes and southern Amazon in South America, and fresher and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the Maritime Continent.”

The study’s abstract also notes how there’s a glaring disagreement between the simulations done by models and what the reconstructions show: “We find notable dissimilarities between the regional hydroclimate changes and global-scale and hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, indicating that more work needs to be done to understand the mechanisms of the widespread tropical hydroclimate changes during the LIA.”

The problem, the authors say, is that “climate model simulations exhibit weak forced long-term tropical rainfall changes over the last millennium” and the reconstructions tell a different story.

Climate forcings not understood

The inability for the models to perform adequately are likely due to the “inaccurate” use of climate forcings and poor estimation of internal climate variability. Another remote possibility is that the proxy records are simply being misunderstood.

Models not reliable for forecasting

Die kalte Sonne comments: “Because the models do not correctly reproduce the past, their forecasting quality for the future must be taken very critically. Visions of future horror droughts or Biblical floods should be ignored until the models are able to successfully reproduce the documented global precipitation history.”

Many more precipitation and temperature proxy studies here.




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The IPCC’s Latest PAGES 2k (2019) Temperature Hockey Stick Is Contradicted By . . . PAGES 2k (2015)

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The IPCC’s latest report uses a hockey stick-shaped reconstruction of global temperatures that wholly contradicts previous records  produced by the same PAGES 2k and Oceans 2k consortiums from 4 years earlier.

In 2015, the PAGES 2k Consortium published an updated (“corrected”) 0-2000 AD global reconstruction that showed a large portion of the 1st millennium was globally as warm or warmer than the last 30 years of the 20th century.

The authors added a red-hot near-vertical line to to the 30-year bins to emphasize modern warmth even as they acknowledged the late 300s CE, as well as the 1941-1970 period, were warmer (Arctic) than 1971-2000.

As the pink-blue graph on the bottom of the image below shows (coloration/annotation added, red line removed), the anomalous temperatures (blue) in the last 2000 years occurred during the globally-coherent Little Ice Age. Late 20th century warmth was only a partial return to the 1st millennium climate “normal” (pink).

Image Source: PAGES 2k Consortium

Just 4 years later (2019), PAGES 2k scientists apparently decided an as-warm or warmer 1st millennium did not sufficiently advance the anthropogenic global warming narrative. So they flattened the 1st millennium warmth so it was effectively indistinguishable from the Little Ice Age.

Image Source: PAGES 2k Consortium (pdf)

After making 1st millennium warmth and Little Ice Age cooling disappear, the PAGES 2k agenda was then to create a hockey stick blade clearly distinguishable from the rest of the record. This served to make modern warmth appear unprecedented.

Image Source: PAGES 2k Consortium (pdf)

The newly-created hockey stick blade not only contradicted PAGES 2k (2015), it also was wholly incongruent with Oceans 2k (2015), the PAGES 2k Consortium global sea surface temperatures reconstruction (representing 71% of the Earth’s surface).

Notice the Oceans 2k authors indicate there was a warming trend of just 0.08 of a standard deviation unit per 100 years during the 1801-2000 AD period, whereas there was a temperature variation (cooling) of more than twice this rate (-0.17 and -0.18 s.d. unit/100 years) during the “globally coherent” Little Ice Age bins (1201-1400 and 1601-1800 AD). Also notice the 1st millennium was nearly a full 1 standard deviation unit warmer than 1801-2000.

Image Source: McGregor et al., 2015 and supplemental data 

Here’s how the 20th century warming would likely appear had the authors been willing to display it at the end of the record.

This manifestation undermines any claims of an unprecedented, hockey-stick-shaped warming in the modern era.

Image Source: McGregor et al., 2015 and supplemental data 

Other global ocean (Gebbie and Huybers, 2019) and land (Northern Hemisphere, Büntgen et al., 2020) reconstructions also contradict PAGES 2k (2019), as they show both a globally coherent Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.

Of course, these temperature records must be excluded and/or ignored in IPCC AR6.

Image Source: Gebbie and Huybers, 2019

Image Source: Gebbie and Huybers, 2019 and supplemental data

Image Source: Büntgen et al., 2020
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Antarctic Sea Ice Recovery Surprises Scientists… Classic Disinformation Technique Of Not Reporting

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Just two years ago, many of Germany’s mainstream media outlets declared sea ice at the South Pole was melting at an “astonishing” rate. For example, the left of center, Munich based Süddeutsche Zeitung,

Image cropped here

German national daily Süddeutsche Zeitung (above) reported in June, 2019, that Antarctic sea ice had “shrunk 1.8 million square kilometers”, writing: “the massive disappearance of ice is astonishing”.

But many readers here, who are aware of the real data, know nothing of the sort over the long term has happened since satellite measurements began over 40 years ago.

Massive sea ice rebound goes unreported

Today, two years later, German climate science site Die kalte Sonne looks at recent sea ice developments in Antarctica – noting that the climate-ambulance chasing mainstream media like the Süddeutsche Zeitung have since mysteriously stopped reporting on Antarctica. Here’s why:

Sea ice at the South Pole has rebounded over the past two years to levels seen 30 years ago. In June, 2021, Antarctic sea ice was even well above normal. The doomsday scenario has disappeared, and not the ice.

The Antarctic sea ice rebound shows that there’s still a lot about natural drivers that remains unknown, says Die kalte Sonne. It appears that oceanic cycles, such ENSO, SAM or the Indian Ocean play major roles on Antarctic sea ice variability.

Classic disinformation technique

“Researchers are in agreement that the strong decline in Antarctic sea ice from 2016 to 2019 is mainly due to natural causes,” says Die kalte Sonne. “Obviously this is not a good topic for the Süddeutsche Zeitung, who prefer not to report on the ice recovery.”

Not informing the public about the most recent developments, but instead leaving them with a false impression based on carefully cherry-picked data two years earlier, is a classic disinformation technique that has long been perfected by the activist media.




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Spike Protein From “Vaccines” Is A Toxin That’s Dangerous To Human Organs, Says Pathologist

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Today I have 2 videos that are worth the time watching. It’s important to stand firm against these so-called “vaccines”.

Pathologist Dr. Ryan Cole says in a talk that the COVID vaccines are dangerous to human organs and that the science surrounding Corona and the vaccines is being suppressed.

I won’t be posting this at Twitter because it’ll only result in my account getting suspended.

In another video, an outspoken Canadian activist explains why he has a solid legal case against lockdowns:

It’ll be interesting to see how this all turns out.




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Hot Air Coming From IPCC At Tropical Storm Levels: Typhoons Trending Down Since 1951

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Typhoon trends contradict alarmist clai9ms made by the IPCC’s latest report

By Kirye
and Pierre

The latest IPCC AR6 report claims there is a likely link between extreme weather events and human activity, particular so-called greenhouse gas emissions.

The media wasted no time in spreading panic and magnifying hysteria. But is it true that extreme weather events like heavy rains, storms, droughts are linked to CO2-induced climate warming?

If the link is true, then man’s activity has been desirable

Today we examine the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) data for Pacific typhoons going back to 1951. First we look at the trend for the number of typhoons formed in July. The IPCC Summary Report would like to have everyone believe that tropical storms are becoming more frequent and intense.

Data source: JMA.

Yet, as the above chart shows, the number of typhoons formed in the month of July has been trending downward. Using IPCC science claiming there’s an anthropogenic link, then we’d have to say that man has had a desirable impact on typhoon formation.

But that’s only one month, July.

So, next we look at the JMA data for the number of typhoons formed from January through July going back to 1951:

Data source: JMA.

Here as well the trend has been downward – in stark contrast to the baseless hysteria we’ve been hearing from the media over the past few days.

Annual typhoon trend is down

Next we examine the trend for the number of typhoons formed each year, since 1951.

Data source: JMA.

If there’s a link to humans, then us humans must be doing something right in terms of typhoon management. Of course everyone knows that IPCC science behind a link is bogus.

No trend on Japan typhoon landfall

Finally we look at the number of typhoons making landfall in Japan:

Data source: JMA.

Indeed we see there’s been no trend going back to 1950. In terms tropical storms, the amount of hot air coming from the IPCC is at typhoon levels.




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