Matti Vooro presents his latest essay on colder winters in the UK. Matti’s last essay: Signs of strengthening global cooling, drew over 100 reader comments – a record at NoTricksZone.
Should Britons Buy Bermuda Shorts Or Long Johns?
by Matti Vooro
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past. “
That was the headline in the UK’s The Independent newspaper in March of 2000. The CRU scientists claimed that within a few years winter snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting thing. Incapable of learning, even reconfirmed this as recently as January 10, 2010 when one of their scientists told the UK Mail:
The winter is just a little cooler than average, and I still think that snow will become an increasingly rare event”.
The Met Office then followed The Independent with their prediction of the 4°C temperature rise in only 50 years, predicting warmer temperatures, more heat waves and drought. The IPCC had the same message in their 2007 report with their prediction that:
Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. The warming in northern Europe is likely to be largest in winter.”
Yet, only a few years after these predictions of unprecedented winter warming for UK and Europe, the exact opposite has emerged. Winters have been getting colder and there is no lack of snow. UK winters have declined in temperatures 4 years straight since 2007. So have the annual temperatures. The last two winters have been especially cold and wintry.
Taking the UK as a whole and not just Central England or CET
2010 December [-1 C] coldest December since 1910
2009 December [2.1 C] 13th coldest December since 1910
2008 December [3.1 C] 26th coldest December since 1910
2007 December [3.77C] 56th coldest December since 1910
It is dramatic how the winter temperatures have shifted since 2007 winter, which was the 2nd warmest winter in the UK since 1910.
What follows are the mean winter temperatures for all of UK. The average mean winter temperature is around 3.6C
2007 5.56 C (2nd warmest)
2008 4.86 C
2009 3.21 C
2010 1.64 C (7th coldest)
The annual UK temperatures have been declining since 2006 as the following shows:
2006 9.73 C (warmest since 1910)
2007 9.59 C
2008 9.05 C
2009 9.17 C
2010 7.96 C (12th coldest since 1910)
Refer to the UK Met Office and the excellent data provided from the following source:
According to the Met Office:
2010 was the 12 th coldest year in the 100 year series and the coldest since 1986. 2010 was the coldest year since 1919 in Scotland and Northern Ireland “
The following graph is a plot of winters in Central England as opposed to UK as a whole for the years 1948-2010. UK temperatures as a whole are similar but slightly lower by 0.5 to1 degree C. Winter AO levels are also shown.
Typically La Nina winters used to be colder before the 1970’s but during the last 11 La Nina winters, 9 winters have been near normal or warmer for Central England. This did not happen in December 2010. January 2011 is more typical of La Nina winters. El Nino winters seem to set up colder and negative AO and colder winters except when they are extra strong like 1998. It would appear from field or observed data, that UK winters are not getting warmer as predicted but may actually be getting cooler instead and may be following the natural planetary cycles perhaps similar to what happened during the last cooler cycle about 1962-1987.
Man-made greenhouse gases have little to do with this cooling as CO2 keep rising in a minor way. The weather was supposed to get warmer as CO2 levels have gone up? It is not. Global warming science does not seem to be holding up and seems to need a serious rethink, see GWPF.
During the 26 years of the last colder period , 17 years or 2/3 of the winters were below the average mean winter temperature of 3.6 and about 12 (45%) were much colder and below 3C, Of the 78 winter months during 1962-1987, 41 months (53%) were below average mean of 3.6°C.
What was the main weather factor present during those cooler winters?
Number of winters where AMO was negative: 22 (84%)
Number of winters where AO was negative: 21 (80%) [dec/jan/feb]
Number of winters where PDO was negative: 15 (58%)
Number of winters NAO was negative: 13 (50%)
ENSO years neutral 8 years (30%), LA NINA 9 years (35%), EL NINO 9 years (35%)
Number of winters with a net negative AO [dec/jan/feb] during the last 60 years:
1960’s 10 (very cold winters)
1990’s 4 (very warm winters)
2000’s 4 (very warm winters)
Clearly the presence of negative AO, AMO, PDO and NAO were the most frequently occurring climate factors happening during that time. With the exception of AMO, all these factors are again heading for or are already in their negative or cool mode.
The sun is also still in its low activity level and unusual extra warming seems unlikely. AMO is likely to go negative or cool within 5-10 years if not sooner. There were many instances of back to back months of very cold weather as well as back to back cold winters like the 1960’s.
What would you do if you were a member of the UK general public or an official in charge of transportation, roads, airports, fuel supply, electricity or other infrastructure, read here WUWT?
Clearly the some agencies charged with informing the public about seasonal or long term weather did not have their act together yet. There was a serious warming bias in many weather and climate forecasts due to an over-emphasis on global warming. For example, in the midst of the worst part of December 2010 winter storm, the focus of the chief climate scientist was not on how to help the public with better information during the crisis, but on global warming. Professor Slingo insisted in comments to the Independent newspaper on December 21, 2010:
The key message is that global warming continues.”
Some refuse to learn. People are finding out that a second opinion on winter weather is paying off. Many North American meteorologists like Joe Bastardi and Joe D’Aleo and independent UK meteorologists like Piers Corbyn, have been predicting cooler weather the last several years.
In my judgment, no one can predict with certainty what the future of the climate will be for the next 10-30 years.
Each climate cycle is different. It will not be a mini ice age in my opinion as some are predicting, nor will all the global general temperatures go below those that existed before the 1976 Pacific climate shift, but more of a cyclic cooler period.
Once the North Atlantic ocean SST and AMO start to contribute to the global cooling in a more significant way, the global temperatures of US and Canadian east coasts, the western coast of Europe and the Arctic will be the cooling more consistently.