If your “Globe” Is Only 10 Meters From Your Door – It’s Warming!
By guest writer Ed Caryl
In A Recent Temperature History – Part 1, 22 stations in the midwest U. S. were examined. On an average, these stations were cooling slightly over one AMO cycle, from 1934 to 2000, but there was much variability. The greatest cooling was –0.76°C, and the greatest warming was 0.59°C. As these sites are all within a few hundred kilometers of each other, why the large variation? Was it population density? Or is it something else?
The towns in this group are all small, according to GISS under 10,000 population. The actual population was found to be from about 500 to just less than 7000, with one outlier at 24,900. The station distance from the center of that city is more than 7 kilometers, so GISS can be forgiven for that classification.
But perhaps it isn’t the surrounding population that counts, but simply the closest heated dwelling. To test that hypothesis, this author researched each station at the SurfaceStations.org website, and found the distance from each measurement sensor (MMS) to the nearest heated building. For some it was necessary to go to Google maps using the latitude and longitude along with other clues, to find the information. For others it was necessary to estimate the distance from photographs. This information was then plotted in Figure 1.
Figure 1. This is a plot of the temperature trends for 22 mid-western U. S. stations versus town population (black) , and distance from the measuring instrument to the nearest heated building (pink and red), usually a residence.
As can be seen on the plot, town population made almost no difference to the trend. The dots are nearly completely random with respect to population. On the other hand, the distance from a heated dwelling made a much larger difference. The two coolest sites were more than 100 meters from the nearest building. Within the population limits of this study, the Urban Warming Influence is simply the distance to the nearest heated building, not the size of the city.
This phenomenon is the reason for much of the Arctic warming. Urban Warming in the Arctic, and indeed in the Antarctic, is an occupied-building-to-temperature-sensor distance problem. In the polar regions, the temperature differential between occupied buildings and the outdoor temperature sensors is much greater than in the temperate mid-west U. S., so the distance must be greater to avoid the UWI problem. But man doesn’t like digging long cable trenches in ice or permafrost (it’s like concrete!), or walking long distances in –40° weather, so the measurements are not done properly.
It is clear to this author that measured “Global Warming” is simply due to increasing nearby energy use and the temperature sensor proximity to the resulting heat. Of course if we all reduce our “carbon footprint”, this reduced energy use will surely slow “Global Warming”; but it will not be because CO2 emission is reduced, and it will result in all of us freezing.