Joe Bastardi: “Models Portraying Severe Winter” For Europe. North America Forecast For Brutal Cold

Joe Bastardi’s Weatherbell page here features the latest “Saturday Summary´, something I now look forward to every week.

First in North America, weather models at about the 2:45 mark show that things could get awfully brutal for an extended period. Already the 7 – 14 day forecast looks ugly:

Chart sources: National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Joe calls it “a heck of a weather period coming up”.

Here in Europe we’ve had a nice spell of mild weather since Christmas-time, and some of you may be thinking of getting started already on some springtime chores. Well, don’t put the snow shovels and antifreeze away just yet. Models have been converging on and are pointing to another “Beast from the East” getting poised to shock-freeze the continent.

It’s too early to say just how brutal it may get. But should a protracted, deep cold develop, then it’ll be interesting to see how Germany’s now vulnerable electricity grid will hold up. A number of institute’s have been warming that if the winter turns hard, Germany’s power grid could collapse – thanks to the huge gap in baseload capacity left by the German government’s hasty shutdown of 8 nuclear reactors in the wake of Fukushima in 2011.

Here’s the Weatherbell chart for early-mid February:

Chart source:

Of course 30-day general forecasts are nothing certain, and things could develop differently. But should anything like this indeed develop, then look at the cold headed for Germany, Eastern and Central Europe. I really do hope they have every source of electricity generation ready on standby because they are going to need it.

Germany’s leaders, in my view, have been playing an irresponsible game of Russian Roulette with its citizens when it comes the nation’s power grid and supply, winging it and praying they’ll somehow eek by another winter. This winter they may not be so lucky. I can see the headlines already.

Enjoy the last few remaining days of mild weather. After that, hope that the Beast from the East shows a little compassion. Unfortunately, Mother Nature rarely does so.


10 responses to “Joe Bastardi: “Models Portraying Severe Winter” For Europe. North America Forecast For Brutal Cold”

  1. Stephen Richards

    I’m as far west as you can get IN CENTRAL EUROPE but last year we saw -19C during a period of cold lasting 9 days.

    It is very here that cold spells last longer than 2 weeks exception is 1956.

  2. Stephen Richards

    it is very seldom here …

  3. Edward.

    Hmm, let us hope the North Sea does it’s “thermal blanket thing” for us here but nothing to say we can’t cop it in the UK either – strong easterlies is all it takes.

  4. Josh

    Last February the German power grid was pushed to the edge of its resilience several times. Power supplies in the south would have been in serious trouble if not for the reactivation of coal-fired plants. The threats to the grid during a hard winter will only increase as more nuclear plants are closed and more unreliables are brought online.

  5. JC Smith

    So…..what ever happened to that “brutal cold” for North America? And what happened to Joe Bastardi’s “Arctic sea ice” forecasts for upcoming sea ice extent? He seems to have dropped out of the ice forecasting business ever since his “major flop” of predicting increased sea ice…..only to have sea ice drop significantly each year.

    I wonder how long Joe will keep prognosticating with all his wrong calls on weather and climate? This past fall he was also calling for a brutal winter in the US….which hasn’t appeared yet. Joe has about 7 more weeks of winter….until yet another of his weather/climate calls falls flat on his face.

    1. DirkH

      When will Hansen and the rest of the climate modelers go out of business for consistently mispredicting the future climate, JC Smith?

      1. JC Smith


        You’ve got me there! Most of them have UNDERSTATED the ice melting, AND the temperature rise. So maybe you’re right….

        1. DirkH

          JC Smith, I know you intend to mislead anyone who reads your lies. The leaked IPCC AR5 draft is all over the place. You won’t get anywhere with lying.

  6. Chris Morris

    From what I have seen over the last 7 years or so Joe’s views on the climate have proved more accurate than most.

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