Joe Bastardi tweeted an interesting graphic (Figure 2), indicating this year’s spring melt up in the Arctic could be off to a slow start – if one looks only at the temperature factor. There are of course lots of factors impacting sea ice melt: winds, weather, ocean currents, soot, to name a few. Here’s the sea ice extent at the moment:
Figure 1: Source:www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/htm.
Figure 1 above shows that we are pretty much at average Arctic sea ice extent for this time of the year, despite “the all-time record low” set last autumn. Figure 2 is the chart Joe Bastardi tweeted yesterday – a global temperature forecast for the next 6 weeks.
Figure 2 shows lots of blue and green up in the Arctic and so the break-up of Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort sea ice could be delayed weeks. Using the popular warmist global warming albedo theory, that would mean lots of sunlight getting reflected back out into space, thus the dark ocean beneath would absorb less heat, and so lead to even less ice melt. Eventually, at the end of the long complicated chain, all the extra ice may lead to a warm winter at the middle latitudes next year, which then would be a clear sign of global warming. Just believe it!
Over the long-term, the Arctic is a sort of climate barometer, but one that lags the overall northern hemisphere mean temperature trend. What we saw last fall in the Arctic is in part only a consequence of the warm 2000s decade. By the end of the current decade, chances are good that we will see the Arctic recovering strongly, in response to an overall cooling of the northern hemisphere.
Spring minimum reaches a 10-year high!
Also, this year’s global spring minimum reached a 10-year high: just under 16 million sq km (Figure 3), and was thus about 1.5 million sq. km. more than 2 years ago.
Figure 3: Global sea ice bottomed out at just under 16 million sq. km. This is the highest in 10 years and is the same as 1981! See chart: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu.area.jpg
Right now overall global sea ice anomaly is almost plus one million sq. km., the highest it’s been in 4 years. That’s bad news for the albedo theorists. The upper curve of Figure 3 shows that the minimum global sea ice (reached every spring) was at the highest level in 10 years. This flies in the face of the claims that global sea ice is melting rapidly.