Veteran journalist Ulli Kulke of the German blog Die Welt has a report claiming that how sea levels are not rising anywhere near as fast as climate science alarmists are claiming.
First Kulke reminds readers that measuring sea level is no easy task because, depending on the location, sea levels can vary by several decimeters – even up to a meter. Much of the science relies on complex statistical computations and the results depend on the methods used.
Kulke writes:
A scientific study by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has closely examined data from the measurement stations located mainly at the coasts and reached the result that sea level rise calculations were exaggerated upwards. In the study Michael Beenstock and colleagues reached the result that sea level rise on a global average is only 1 millimeter and that by the end of the century it will rise only 10 centimeters; only 1/3 of the stations showed a detectable rise, 61% showed no movement and 4% showed a drop.”
Overall 1 mm/year is about 67% less than what Jason TOPEX satellite altimetry is showing (3 mm). If anything, Beenstock’s result indicate a sea level rise slowdown.
Beenstock is not the only scientist who has found sea level rise is much slower than believed. Kulke writes that other peer-reviewed studies reach similar conclusions. For example Nicola Scafetta of Duke University (see full paper here) shows that sea level is subject to 60-year cycles and concludes that the human impact on sea level is too small and is statistically insignificant.
Unfortunately these finding were not available in time to be included in the last IPCC assessment report AR5. Kulke writes that this was also “the case for other studies which recently showed that Co2’s effect on the global climate is present, but is however greatly exaggerated“.
Kulke cites another study that shows that the extraction of groundwater has caused close to half of the sea level rise of the last years. Kulke concludes that there’s no indication that sea level is rising faster because of man-made CO2 and that we are facing the fall of civilization, even if “scientists like Stefan Rahmstorf tirelessly paint pictures of man-made apocalypses on the wall“.
The studies cited here tell us one thing: Whoever tells us that there is a consensus among scientists that climate change is happening faster and faster, is just plain wrong.”
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Typo: Hebrew, not Herbrew.
How did “sea kevels” get past you?
Thanks. What can I say? No excuses. Should have waited and posted this morning instead of late last evening.
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When the first information from the GPS satellites were analyzed the results surprised the Surveyors. They discovered that the elevation of the land surface changes continuously. The surface of the planet changes with the cycles of the moon and the sun. This was a revelation. Up to the satellite age land surveyors assumed it is only the surface of the oceans that change with the moon causing the tides. The Earth Tides – google Wiki entry for a fuller explanation – results in the elevation of a city like London or Hamburg rising and falling by up to 1.5 metres per week. The international survey organization publishes a list of correction factors that must be applied to any GPS surface reading, the listing allows for time, longitude, and latitude corrections of the station.
In addition, on the relevant NASA website, the accuracy of the GPS systems is listed. Please note that GPS accuracy is expressed in decimetres. That is right, not milimetres or centimetres, but decimeters, basically four inch units. The vertical accuracy (the Z-axis) , compared to North and East (X and Y axis), of the GPS systems are the worst of all. Something like 15 decimetres for the vertical.
So, we are sitting on a world where the best American satellites cannot measure the elevation of any place on earth with an accuracy approaching 1500 millimeters, yet the climate change scientists can measure a sea level rise of 1.5mm, a truly extraordinary and remarkable achievement.
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