Science journalist Axel Bojanowski, a trained geologist, at Spiegel writes how scientists think they may have solved the riddle of growing Antarctic sea ice in a warming world.
Mysteries surround Antarctica…scientists realizing oceans play huge role on climate. Photo: NASA-JPL.
No question the planet has warmed some since 1900 as it crawls out of a little ice age and back to a new Holocene optimum. Bojanowski writes:
For a long time scientists thought the problem would simply pass. They expected it was only a fleeting oddity.”
It turns out that the high level of Antarctic sea ice hasn’t been an oddity at all and continues to set new record highs. Now red-faced scientists are desperately searching for an explanation, even a temporary one, that will at least allow them to buy some time. Bojanowski writes:
Never before since measurements began in the late 1970s has there been so much ice at the southern continent at this time of the year.”
Bojanowski cites climate scientist Hugues Goosse of the Université Catholique of Louvain in Belgium, who says that Antarctica is behaving differently due to the fact that it is surrounded by oceans, and not continents as is the case in the Arctic. Goosse tells of ocean dynamics acting as a likely driver in polar ice behavior.
News for Goosse: Ocean cycles are a climate factor that climate scientists always had a habit of denying in the past. Skeptics argued again and again that oceans indeed acted as one of the earth’s primary thermostats, but were always dismissed. This is one reason why climate models have been so wrong.
Yet, Goosse insists the phenomenon is “temporary”. Spiegel writes:
Goosse believes in “temporary fluctuations in weather patterns”, for example changes in the prevailing wind directions. In the meantime winds are blowing over the southern continent more outwards towards the sea and thus are blowing ice outwards in all directions.”
Why this is happening is unclear. But Bojanowski cites a theory proposed by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who think the ozone hole over the South Pole may be playing a role.
The mystery of Antarctic sea ice seems bigger than ever. Bojanowski writes of yet another explanation: Finnish researcher Petteri Uotila thinks the answer is that the Atlantic and the conditions in the Antarctic are linked:
‘I think this explanation solves the Antarctic sea ice paradox,’ believes Petteri Uotila of the Finnish Meteorological Institute in Helsinki, who was not involved in the theory.”
The theory is proposed by scientists at the New York University (NYU) who claim they see an “amazing relationship” between the Atlantic and Antarctica via the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is the water temperature in the Atlantic fluctuating over decades, depending on how strongly the currents flow. And the fluctuations have an impact on years-long climate data all the way to Antarctica.”
Bojanowski cites Xichen Li of NYU, who says it’s no coincidence and is even confirmed by computer simulations. Bojanowski summarizes:
Obviously the Atlantic climate see-saw has the sea level around Antarctica fluctuating. As a result sea ice extent is changing. How this precisely functions remains unclear, however. ‘It appears we have discovered a surprising remote effect,’ Li says.”
So it’s obvious that the science of sea ice is still massively fraught with overwhelming uncertainty and will remain so for a very long time. The proposed Atlantic-Antarctic link does confirm what many skeptics have been claiming for years: the oceans play a massive role.
Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi has been telling us for years that the Arctic sea ice extent is driven in large part by the AMO and that today’s low Arctic sea ice levels are directly linked to the currently positive (warm) AMO. If the warm AMO has an impact on Antarctic sea ice, why wouldn’t it have an impact on the Arctic, which is directly next door? Once again the scientists are only realizing (admitting) what has been obvious to skeptics for a decade now.
Finally scientists like Goosse are waking up. Bojanowski quotes:
Here we are dealing with natural fluctuations that are only masking the warming.”
I.e. Goosse is finally admitting that we haven’t been seeing any warming for years. We suspect that in about 10 years from now, when the mask is off, scientists like Goosse will also see that there never was much warming behind the mask to begin with.
In the Holocene, each warming event (Bond event) has been shorter and cooler than the last. We are approaching the end of the interglacial. Don’t sell your coat.
Good article. The title has a typo. It’s measurements. Keep up the great work.
Ooops (thanks)
Interesting that Joe Bastardi is reporting today that CFSv2 is projecting near normal ice extent in the arctic, based upon multi-year ice amounts and AMO historical patterns.
http://patriotpost.us/opinion/25340
Should sea ice return to normal, the creative excuse-makers will find a way to link it to warming, claim it’s temporary, and tell us warming will resume with a vengeance soon (20, 50 or 100 years from now).
They’ve lost their base. Look at Spiegel comment section. It’s over. When Spiegel readers notice something that means it’s very obvious. Because they’re boneheads.
Thanks Dirk. Comments show Spiegel readers have had it with the climate science scam. Once a person sees through a lie, there is never a way to make them re-believe it. The reactions that the readers are showing has got to be very upsetting for the warmist cultists. We’re winning this an inch at a time, and there’s nothing to stop us.
That is my observation – many comment sections are now running 80% against continued promotion of the scam…
..people are seeing through the leftist eco-socialist propaganda and are tired of the BS, especially how it has driven unwise energy policies.
PG, they do know of a way to stop us–at the ballot box, the same way they started most of this. If Americans really care about our future, we had better vote out any of these charlatans’ enablers. The king recently called on Americans to remove Republicans from office, it’s time we gave him a taste of his own medicine. They’re in the run and very worried. Like others here have said, they know the public is catching on to them. That’s why there’s this sudden full court press to do something now because they know the party’s over in 6 months.
Dems and Reps are the same thing, like CDU and SPD in Germany. Squabbling only over irrelevant details to maintain the illusion of debate.
(Not talking about the Tea Party here)
Anyway, even that kind of mock democratic elite class has a problem once the populous at large rejects the doctrine. Even they need some kind of social contract to continue to be able to leech off the population.
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing the song of angry men?
It is the music of the people
Who will not be slaves again!
The word “normal” is the problem. There is no period “normal” period against which we can measure climate changes, be those changes in temperature, sea level, sea ice, or any other element of what we call climate and environment. We can calculate an “average” sea ice coverage for any give period, but that is merely a mathematically created artifact. There’s no way to assign it a meaning other than a relative one such as, “today’s measurement is (close to, equal to, greater than, less than …) the measurement made of that given period. The choice of period to use as a base line was abitrary to begin with, and there is not now, and never has been a meaningful choice of base period available to us. The planet’s climate is not and never has been a stationary system. It does not have a “normal.”
Photo: Mysteries surround Antarctica – priceless
“CS” regarding ice surrounding Antarctica – clueless
[see Ship of Fools for more clueless science]
What is clear is that climate dynamics are fiendishly complex, nonlinear and random. As such, I doubt that climate will ever be understood well enough to make reliable predictions based on pure analysis. The best that can be attempted is to assume climate cycles are just that, cycles, based on past history that might loosely repeat themselves over several time scales.
This fixation on CO2 is pure folly.
Within 10 years, when amo flips completely, the sea ice agenda will wind up on the ash heap of history. Unfortunately the damage done by this scam is becoming harder to reverse as the hopes and dreams of many are being destroyed by the shackles of what is clearly a matter of one group of people desire to exert their authority over others. The wolf in sheeps clothing of this tyranny is likely to be longer lasting than some of the more obvious despotic movements that have lead to so much misery in man.
We live in interesting times: climate scientists apparently have no clue.
Heh – if they are linked, then should arctic ice start expanding, CS focus will shift to antarctic shrinkage as “evidence” for climate change.
The overall sea ice totals have always been in balance, oceanic currents are key and this was never about man made warming – that much is clear.
They can’t resist throwing in the Ozone layer bo99ocks again though can they? They should remind themselves that – sunlight causes ozone and in the SH winter the sun goes on holiday to the NH – it’s a tilt and orbit thing.
Some scientists outside the “mainstream” have been pointing out the Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice “seesaw” for a long time now. In the early 19th century, when Arctic sea ice was much greater than in recent decades, naval logs show that Antarctic sea ice was much less than recently.
Nigel Calder points out that in Antarctica, reduced cloudiness actually increases albedo, because the glacier albedo is higher than that of the clouds.
Curt:
The Arctic ice was less in the early 19TH Century, which prompted the British Admiralty to launch a series of attempts to find the NW passage. I think the “seesaw” effect is a little less obvious when examined in what detail we have.
But note that the Antarctic ice was reducing when Cook sailed down in 1770, when there was lots of Arctic ice, and again when Weddell went there in 1823, as the Arctic ice started to increase. And the Ross shelf lost a quarter of its ice as the Arctic ice thickened in the 1960’s. Not proven either way.
We have to remember how many years the alarmists had to push this scam before the internet came along and the fight back began. I think only in the last 5 years have the skeptic sites really got into their stride.
I have to agree with the comment above about the comment sections showing more and more skepticism, I have seen a big change over the last year or so. It is picking up a rhythm and the MSM has been cutting back.
Just a minute there gang. Now some of the alarmists are claiming that the models predicted this … that it means ice volume is decreasing – the ice is slipping off the continent and hence more sea ice extent. I’ve not seen/heard any evidence about volume, and, unlike sea ice extent, may not be so easily meaured via satellite.
Anyone out there know, for sure?
gofigure: The sea ice we are talking about here is frozen sea water, easily distinguished from the fresh water in the ice shelves that come from the land based glaciers.
The alarmist argument that I have heard is that the increased melt of the land based glaciers in the water has kept the ocean cooler and so enhanced the sea ice. I have a lot of trouble understanding how that could cause more sea ice 1200 km away.
The Arctic is warmed from the West by the Pacific Ocean. If it wasn’t then Alaska would be unviable.
The heating effect comes with the rain.
[…] (More here) […]
Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!
Headlines April1st – May3rd 2014
April-May3rd –
May 3rd- Cars rescued from heavy snow in Argentina
May 3rd – Ice piled 12-feet deep on shores of Lake Superior
May 3rd – Snowfall warnings continue – and expand – in British Columbia
Romania – “It’s as if we were preparing for Christmas – not Easter”
“This year is maybe a record-breaking year,” says expert on Great Lakes ice.
As of May 1st, ships were still being escorted with ice breakers on Lake Superior, says the Duluth News Tribune.
Unexpected snowfall destroys 2,000 hectares of crops in Adjara
Snowfall warnings for Banff and southward
Snowfall to hit Petrozavodsk
Antarctic Sea Ice 50% Above Previous Record
Gangtok, India – Army rescues 2,000 stranded by snowfall
Blizzard paralyzes daily life in many parts of Russia’s Urals region
Heavy Snowfall in the Alps
Snow and Wind Hit Los Alamos, NM
Up to 14 inches of snow for Colorado
China – Xinjiang hit hard by blizzard
8 to 11 inches of snow forecast for Minnesota
Rhinelander – Hasn’t snowed this much in 106 years
Record low temperatures across Manitoba – 17 Apr
Record Mid-April Hard Freezes Kill Great Plains Wheat
Back-to-back record lows in Marquette
Winnipeg water pipes could stay frozen until July
Heavy snowfall blocks roads in Afghanistan
Snowfall warnings for Banff and southward
Gangtok, India – Army rescues 2,000 stranded by snowfall
Global Warming is “Nonsense,” says former NASA scientist
Another big winter storm for Thunder Bay
Russia’s Urals – Most severe springtime snowstorm in 123 years
Snowfall in the Urals leaves 70,000 without power
Snow and Wind Hit Los Alamos, NM
Up to 14 inches of snow for Colorado
Too Much Spring Ice Threatens Alaskan Polar Bears
Heavy snowfall for parts of Ontario and NW Lake Superior
Ice Moves Bridge In New Brunswick
8 to 11 inches of snow forecast for Minnesota
Snowfall warnings for northeastern British Columbia
Most Atlantic ice in decades, warns Coast Guard
More than a foot of new snowfall in Minnesota and Wisconsin
Record low temperatures across Manitoba – 17 Apr
More than 40 ships lined up waiting to get through Soo Locks due to ice.
Another record low obliterated Pellston, Michigan, shatters its old low temp record by 16 degrees!
Great Lakes ice coverage FAR exceeds anything since satellite monitoring began
Detroit – Snowiest winter on record – Hundreds of thousands lose power
Record lows in Wyoming shatter last year’s record lows on same date
Mackinac Island ferries delayed – Too much ice on Great Lakes
Up to 16 inches (40 cm) of snow in Wyoming 14 April
Nine blue whales “probably crushed to death by ice”
Nova Scotia – Snowmobilers beware! Snow almost to the tops of power poles
US Steel idles mill due to “unprecedented ice conditions on the Great Lakes”
Early April Snowstorm Buries Wisconisn and Minnesota
Coldest winter in Winnipeg since 1898
Record snowfall in Nebraska
Record snowfall in Grand Forks, North Dakota
Ice breakers “challenged” on Lake Superior
Record snowfall in Ontario
Billings, Montana, breaks all-time snowfall record
Armenia – Heavy snowfall kills up to 95% of apricot harvest
Chicago – Coldest Four-Month Period In City History
Doğubayazıt, Turkey – 900 sheep perish in snowstorm
Record snowfall paralyzes Moscow
[…] https://notrickszone.com/2014/05/02/spiegel-on-antaractic-sea-ice-never-before-has-there-been-so-much… […]