Looks like yet another model projection is about to join that now overflowing mass grave of failed climate and weather model projections. The latest to join it is the projection that 2014 would bring a “super El Niño”, and with it, the warmists are hoping, a new global temperature record.
At Weatherbell Joe Bastardi has posted his latest Saturday Summary and in it he shows us why all of it is looking more like super El Hypo. Currently the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is positive, which, Joes says, makes it unlikely a “super El Niño” is in the pipeline this year. He says the current SOI value “has nothing to do” with a super El Niño.
At the 5:45 mark he shows the SOI plot of 1997, when it was seriously negative, dipping below -20.
He compares the 1997 SOI with today’s situation:
2014 SOI positive in June. Image cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary, 7 June 2017.
Currently, it’s still in positive territory, not what would expect to see in June! Joe then adds:
You need three months of plus 2°C or greater in the ENSO 3/4 and we just don’t see that and neiter do the models really.”
The charts show that there is no similarity with the event of 1997/98, and the current situation resembles more 2002 and 2009. The south Pacific is showing a cold PDO signature which “cuts the feet out from under” a developing El Niño.
Arctic ice poised for impressive rebound
At the 10:30 minute mark, the NWS/NCEP/CPC forecast shows how Arctic sea ice is projected to be above normal by late summer, something that has been unseen since 1996.
If that forecast should indeed pan out, then naturally skeptics are going to have a major field day with this. Just warning!
The NWS/NCEP/CPC forecast is even surprising Joe:
It’s forecast to stay above normal for 5 months at the height of the melt season. That has not happened since the AMO flipped from cold to warm back in the mid 90s. And that’s our theory that the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation, not CO2, that is controlling what the Arctic ice is doing – the bulk of the Arctic ice.”
With the latest projection, the warmists absolutely must be in major panic mode right now and gearing for major damage control. Expect them to be concocting some wacky explanation for this. I can hear it already: Warming causes more Arctic ice after all! The circus that climate science is becoming is taking on ever more impressive dimensions.
In summary, Antarctic sea ice is above normal, the Arctic is projected to be above normal this summer, and the super El Niño is turning out to be nothing but super el hypo.
Though the 2014 will end as a relatively warm year, it very very likely won’t be warm enough to end the streak in the warming gone AWOL, which is now close to being 18 years long. Moreover, El Niños are usually followed by (cool) La Niñas. The situation for the warmists is looking increasingly dire.