Helmholtz Center in Germany: Antarctic temperatures show no warming trend in 20th century. Climate models unable to reproduce real temperature development
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
[Translated/edited by P Gosselin]
From September 21 – 24, 2015, the 10th Deutsche Klimatagung (German Climate Conference) took place in Hamburg. Along with a number of topics Jochem Marotzke explained to his colleagues that it did not matter how far reality diverged from the modeled temperature curves. This would say nothing about the existing or missing quality of the models. The man is just ingenious.
Another presentation was made by Sebastian Wagner and Eduardo Zorita of the Helmholtz Center in Geestacht, Germany. In it they claimed that the cold phases of the last 2000 years were simply caused by volcanic aerosols, even though weak solar activity would be a far better explanation for these cool periods. Unfortunately the models that are used are unable to show the sun as a driver because the assigned irradiative forcing or the climate forcing of solar activity fluctuations have been intentionally pegged too low.
No warming trend in Antarctica
Problems also in Antarctica: Using temperature reconstructions from climate proxies, there was no warming in the 20th century, according to Wagner and Zorita. To the contrary the models showed a virtual warming, which in reality never existed. The presentation’s abstract states:
Over the southern hemisphere the situation is however more heterogeneous and the model simulation shows no such clear cut changes compared to the northern hemispheric continents. For instance, the change in the GHG concentrations does not lead to a pronounced increase in the temperatures over Antarctica. Here the reconstruction shows quite stable levels also in the 20th century, whereas the simulation shows a similar increase as for the northern hemisphere.”
In other words: The models fail to get a grip on reality.