The more CO2-obsessed climate scientists deny the sun’s powerful role in driving climate, the more that other serious scientists are finding out that it is in fact truly The Dominant Player in climate.
The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestial Physics here has a recent paper where scientists have found a “significant relation” between sunspots and El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Image source: here
This once again indicates that the sun indeed drives climate in a complex and interwoven variety of ways and that the belief that 100 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere is in the climate driver’s seat is astonishingly naive.
Unfortunately this paper was not mentioned by the main stream media, and likely will likely be ignored by the CO2-obsessed IPCC, as is the case with so many other papers.
Sincere thanks to reader Rick for bringing it to our attention.
The abstract follows (emphasis added):
The various techniques have been used to confer the existence of significant relations between the number of Sunspots and different terrestrial climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature, dewdrops, aerosol and ENSO etc. Improved understanding and modelling of Sunspots variations can explore the information about the related variables. This study uses a Markov chain method to find the relations between monthly Sunspots and ENSO data of two epochs (1996–2009 and 1950–2014). Corresponding transition matrices of both data sets appear similar and it is qualitatively evaluated by high values of 2-dimensional correlation found between transition matrices of ENSO and Sunspots. The associated transition diagrams show that each state communicates with the others. Presence of stronger self-communication (between same states) confirms periodic behaviour among the states. Moreover, closeness found in the expected number of visits from one state to the other show the existence of a possible relation between Sunspots and ENSO data. Moreover, perfect validation of dependency and stationary tests endorses the applicability of the Markov chain analyses on Sunspots and ENSO data. This shows that a significant relation between Sunspots and ENSO data exists. Improved understanding and modelling of Sunspots variations can help to explore the information about the related variables. This study can be useful to explore the influence of ENSO related local climatic variability.
This is just the latest paper joining dozens of others showing that the sun is the earth’s only real climate engine.
The earth moves in an atmosphere created by the sun. The earth’s atmosphere is affected by radiation, including large changes in ultraviolet, solar wind, and cosmic rays, all controlled by changes on the sun. Sunspots are just the visible manifestation of those changes.
There is no evidence that the Earth’s climate is long-term affected by radiation, including large changes in ultraviolet, the solar wind, and cosmic rays.
That is, the Svensmark Hypothesis is just that — an unproven hypothesis.
Valid only when ignoring dozens of papers showing otherwise. You have to be away from the fanatically dogmatic thinking and obsession you’re caught up in.
There is no evidence that Appell’s behavior is long-term affected by arguments, including large changes in physical knowledge, falsifications, and refreshing ideas.
That is, what he suggests on his website is just that — an unproven hypothesis.
Sadly for you, David Appell, even if Svensmark is wrong (which at this point is highly doubtful) your crowd’s belief in dangerous warming caused by CO2, as I posted on a related recent thread, will never be right.
There is no evidence that David Appell knows what he is talking about or has any understanding of Technology. In fact there is some evidence from his many inane comments that he has no understanding of technology. Pierre is too kind to let him comment here but then he is an example of the political group of activists who have no qualifications and no understanding and who want to reshape the world to their belief. Some of these activists have bought qualifications to make it seem that they know something but they can not hide their ignorance.
As I have said many times,
he is a low-end science fiction journalist…
…… at most !!!
Anyone want to take a bet that Willis Eschenbach will discover this paper and, as he always does, “show” that he can’t discover a correlation?
I was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw the headlines.
I remember how he re-invented a primitive replacement for Fourier analysis without noticing. He’s enthusiastic but he lacks some basics. And doesn’t seem to be too eager to teach them to himself. There are very good lectures/tutorials about ANYTHING signal-theoretical even on youtube… Imagine how much money those stupid American students shell out for a university education that is already available for free.
Eco-loon bear-hugging method actor Leo DiCaprio is one of the most knowledgable civilians concerning climate change.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/02/19/3087111/
““There are very few civilians who have the same understanding that this guy has of climate change. Leo’s a wonk,” says Mark Ruffalo, who has just combined forces with DiCaprio on the Solutions Project, a group of scientists and stars hoping to move America toward full-renewable-energy use. “He’s putting his ass on the line.””
As climate scientists *are* civilians, this means that Leo DiCaprio has more knowledge about climate change than most climate scientists.
“Mark Alan Ruffalo (born November 22, 1967)[1] is an American actor, director, humanitarian and producer.” (wikipedia)
So you have it on good authority.
BTW it’s been some time since the warmunists advertised the John Cook 97% research result. What’s wrong with you, warmunists? Come on. Don’t let the economic collapse and the World War steal all the headlines.
Leo’s putting his ass on the line?
Great! I hope it gets booted across a couple of state lines when “the Solutions Project” utterly fails to produce anything worthwhile
Oh! I missed the implications of the “ass” line. While I even mentioned the bear. Ruffallo managed to smuggle in a joke there. Nice.
Then they’ll just make a movie about it, maybe with him as the poor tragic hero who is hounded and harassed by vested interests, with the result that the earth becomes a desert. AND IT’S ALL OUR FAULT for not listening to the alarmists. …or some such nonsense.
While this sounds interesting there are going to be issues so watchful waiting is advised.
The major issue may be that the Sun-Earth relationships do not meet the random process assumption (Markov chain) of “memorylessness” insofar as Earth systems are connected. [I haven’t done anything with this technique since 1966, so it is way beyond me now.] The Wikipedia entry for “memorylessness” might be worth reading. It quickly gets technical.
I don’t think a Markov Chain is memoryless, as the state it is in already constitutes a memory. While trivial examples use 2 or 3 states, you can imagine a Markov Chain with say 2^(8*2^20) states which would constitute a memory of one Megabyte encoded in the state number.
Oh. The wikipedia article explicitly mentions that the term memoryless in relation to Markov automatons has a different meaning, stating what you stated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorylessness
So. Don’t confuse the two meanings. Earth is not memoryless, I prefer the term stateless to avoid the confusion of the differing definitions of memoryless; as the heat content of all the molecules constitute a memory, or, define a state at each moment in time, giving weather or climate a Brown Noise characteristic. (Inertia, low pass filtering, integration)
“The more CO2-obsessed climate scientists deny the sun’s powerful role in driving climate, the more that other serious scientists are finding out that it is in fact truly The Dominant Player in climate.”
Bull. The science shows that solar variations are simply too small to make much difference. We know that both observationally, and we know it theoretically — applying the Stefan Boltzman law to the Earth shows that
dT/dS = T/4S = 0.05 C/(W/m2)
where T is surface temperature and S is the TOA solar luminosity.
You’re completely denying an entire array of other mechanisms at work. Rant on.
Do you seriously think that TSI is the variable of the sun ?????
You moronic, ignorant little child !!!
darn.. the ONLY variable..
please fix when passing moderation
David Appell 20. February 2016 at 7:56 AM | Permalink | Reply
“Bull. The science shows that solar variations are simply too small to make much difference. ”
That is obvious, David. So the LOGICAL deduction is that IF the sun is responsible for the LIA, it MUST have been not by changes in insolation but by a different mechanism – for which Svensmark is the currently only plausible candidate. In a different comment in this thread you show that you KNOW the Svensmark hypothesis – yet in this comment you refuse to draw the obvious conclusion.
This looks like you have a vested interest in pushing the stupid CO2 hypothesis with its failing models in spite of better knowledge.
It looks like you try to plaster blogs with misleading comments to suppress the growing awareness of solar influence on the climate.
????
DITTO THAT!
“The graph below shows the temperature and CO2 record going back 500 million years and it is clear that the CO2 level changes do not fit the temperature changes.” – from here.
Betting on the wrong horse again, David? Well, it’s understandable, doe to the amazing complexity of the CO2 narrative. For those who don’t understand that, this scene from “At The Races” will clarify how it works.
Bottom line, listen to David Appell and sod and get tootsie frootsied.
The UV portion of the Solar spectrum has much greater variabilty than TSI. A connection exists between Solar Grand Minima and increased Vulcanism. What is it? Magnetohydrodynamic Effects? Gravity Waves? Undiscovered Subatomic Partical Flux? We do not know, what we do not know!
Ok I’ll pick Magnetohydrodynamic Effects. Because those exist.
As to the latest discovery of Gravity Waves…
they detected an electron resonating with their laser
in a ridiculously expensive machine, claims Miles Mathis.
12 page PDF, not too hard on the bandwidth.
http://milesmathis.com/liego.pdf
Thanks Dirk, I have looked at Miles in the past but am not upto date with his latest. I note Prof Claes Johnson made a comment on it http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/absurdity-of-modern-physics-ligo.html keep well
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