University of Victoria: Eurasian Cold Wave Not Influenced By Arctic Sea Ice Melt
The climate discussion between the two different fronts had ground to a halt for a long time. Nobody wanted to or could talk to the other. Luckily that has improved a bit as of late. Potsdam scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, a hardcore follower of the extreme climate-alarmism line, has addressed the topics of our “Die kalte Sonne” book twice, and just recently at Realclimate.
That’s welcome as it shows that a sort of discussion is taking place. Of course it still remains disappointing when one closely follows the line of argumentation by “stefan”.
His chart with the solar curve is purposely started AFTER the strong increase in solar activity during the first half of the 20th century, thus hiding the enormous increase from those who read quickly. He lets his temperature curve abruptly end at the highest point of the El Nino, even though at the time of publication on 14 November 2016 the El Nino event had been completely over and the temperature has since returned to normal values. Here the Potsdam scientist craftily selects a 12-month smoothing. More transparent would have been a 36-month smoothing. So, what remains is the monkey business of making sure to profit as much as possible from the recent El Nino. From a climate point of view, it makes absolutely no sense. Thus it’s little wonder that fellow scientists are increasingly distancing themselves from Rahmstorf.
Another example is the harsh cold that gripped Germany just a few years ago and so obviously did not fit at all the global warming climate narrative. Rahmstorf quickly concocted an explanation and claimed with as much media fanfare as possible that the cold winters were related to disappearing Arctic sea ice – and so ultimately were connected to climate warming.
Papers dismiss Potsdam cold winter – Arctic sea ice theory
The concept was immediately dismissed by the climate warming establishment as we reported here. A group led by Kelly McCusker also dismissed it in a paper published in October 2016 in Nature Geoscience. The scientists modelled the Central Eurasian winter temperatures for the past 600 years and were unable to find a relationship with sea ice. The cold waves have much more to do with climate internal fluctuations.
The scientists write in the abstract:
Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss
Surface air temperature over central Eurasia decreased over the past twenty-five winters at a time of strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing and Arctic amplification. It has been suggested that this cooling was related to an increase in cold winters due to sea-ice loss in the Barents–Kara Sea. Here we use over 600 years of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations to isolate the effect of Arctic sea-ice loss, complemented with a 50-member ensemble of atmosphere–ocean global climate model simulations allowing for external forcing changes (anthropogenic and natural) and internal variability. In our atmosphere-only simulations, we find no evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss having impacted Eurasian surface temperature. In our atmosphere–ocean simulations, we find just one simulation with Eurasian cooling of the observed magnitude but Arctic sea-ice loss was not involved, either directly or indirectly. Rather, in this simulation the cooling is due to a persistent circulation pattern combining high pressure over the Barents–Kara Sea and a downstream trough. We conclude that the observed cooling over central Eurasia was probably due to a sea-ice-independent internally generated circulation pattern ensconced over, and nearby, the Barents–Kara Sea since the 1980s. These results improve our knowledge of high-latitude climate variability and change, with implications for our understanding of impacts in high-northern-latitude systems.”
And how did the German media take on the important result? Just a few years ago they had energetically reported on the Rahmstorf model. Sad: In the press pure silence reigned.
Also another paper by Chafik et al. is important here. It appeared in October 2016 in the Geophysical Research Letters. Also here the natural cycles of the North Atlantic climate was again shown — and negated the relationships between the Arctic sea ice melts and the European cold waves:
Global linkages originating from decadal oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic
The anomalous decadal warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA), and the northward spreading of this warm water, has been linked to rapid Arctic sea ice loss and more frequent cold European winters. Recently, variations in this heat transport have also been reported to covary with global warming slowdown/acceleration periods via a Pacific climate response. We here examine the role of SPNA temperature variability in this Atlantic-Pacific climate connectivity. We find that the evolution of ocean heat content anomalies from the subtropics to the subpolar region, likely due to ocean circulation changes, coincides with a basin-wide Atlantic warming/cooling. This induces an Atlantic-Pacific sea surface temperature seesaw, which in turn, strengthens/weakens the Walker circulation and amplifies the Pacific decadal variability that triggers pronounced global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. We conclude that the decadal oceanic variability in the SPNA is an essential component of the tropical interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.”
3 responses to “University of Victoria: Eurasian Cold Waves Not Influenced By Arctic Sea Ice Melt!”
“And how did the German media take on the important result? Just a few years ago they had energetically reported on the Rahmstorf model. Sad: In the press pure silence reigned.”
The last few years have seen enormous population pressure on the German journalist; and it is quite possible that this pressure was even more concentrated in subspecies of unfashionable phenotype like the Journolistus Warmumania Germanicus. In fact, the subspecies might be extinct; it’s mating call “NYE, NYE, THE END IS NYE” not having been heard for months all across the swampy plains of Middle Europe.
I’m indebted to http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11/23/fake-news-update-media-falsely-spins-trumps-climate-comments-read-full-nyt-transcript/ and this comment from
John (magnum) on that post —
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