New Proxy Data Show Northern Europe Weather Variability In Sync With Natural Factors: Solar Activity, Oceanic Cycles

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Another new paper, which of course will be ignored by the government-funded IPCC because it contradicts claims CO2 drives climate, shows that natural factors dominated the earth’s climate variability.

A team of scientists led by Jerome Goslin have published a paper titled Decadal variability of north-eastern Atlantic storminess at the mid-Holocene: New inferences from a record of wind-blown sand, western Denmark in the journal Global and Planetary Change, suggesting climate variability is driven naturally.


Image: NASA, public domain

Hat-tip: NTZ reader Mary Brown

Climate change driven by solar and oceanic cycles

Not surprisingly, as evidenced by hundreds of other publications (which are entirely ignored by the IPCC), climate variability is indeed tied to solar activity and “internal atmospheric and oceanic modes”.

The authors report they found “periods of high storminess activity to be significantly correlated with solar minima and relative pluri-decadal lows in the NAO.”

In layman terms: solar and oceanic cycles play the major roles in climate variability.

Co2 as sole driver is pathetic unscientific nonsense

Taking it a step further: suggesting that these powerful natural cycles stopped driving climate some 100 years ago and claiming a few extra molecules of CO2 have since taken over the climate driver’s seat is pathetic nonsense, one that could only be sustained by a government-funded mega-billion-dollar disinformation/scare campaign.

The paper’s abstract:

Disentangling the external and internal forcing responsible for the variability of the Earth’s climate and associated extreme events over the Holocene is crucial for producing reliable scenarios of adaptation to the effects of ongoing climate change. At mid-latitudes, significant relationships between westerly storminess, solar activity and internal atmospheric and oceanic modes of variability have been repeatedly evidenced to exist over millennial and centennial time scales. However, at shorter (decadal) scale, it is still challenging to establish clear control links between the forcing mechanisms and the spatio-temporal variability of past extra-tropical storms. This probably owes to the existence of complex multi-scale relationships and feedback loops, as well as to the difficulty of producing proxy-records of sufficiently high-resolution and wide spatial significance.

Here we present a reconstruction of westerly storminess in western Denmark between 4840 and 2300 yrs. cal. B·P. Past-storminess is retrieved from an organic-rich sedimentary succession by combining markers of aeolian sand influx, μ-XRF geochemistry and plant macrofossils. Particular focus is paid to the c. 4840–4350 yrs. cal. B·P. period for which our record is characterized by a pluri-annual resolution. We evidence concurrent pluri-decadal shifts in storminess and humidity regime at our site that we interpret as relocations of the mean westerly storm-track over the North-Atlantic. The signal is dominated by ≈ 90, ≈ 50–80 and ≈ 35-yr periods, evoking possible links with solar activity, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) modes of variability, respectively. The ≈ 35-yr periodicity found in our record is especially strong and stationary, suggesting that storminess could have been closely linked with the AMOC over the study period. Our records of storminess indeed show some great similarities with a record of deep overflow of a branch of the AMOC. Opposite to some model outputs, the strength of the AMOC seems to have often co-varied with storminess at pluri-decadal scales over the study period. We also find periods of high storminess activity to be significantly correlated with solar minima and relative pluri-decadal lows in the NAO. We suggest that small lowering in the strength of the NAO in an otherwise positive NAO context may have caused southward relocations of the mean westerly storm-track from subpolar latitudes to northern Europe. This invites to reconsider the importance given to using the NAO as a binary index.

Finally, an attempt is made to explore the temporal lead-lag relationships between storminess and different potential forcing agents such as the Total Solar Irradiance, the NAO and the AMOC. Unfortunately, the insufficient chronological precision of the proxy-records available for the TSI, the NAO and the AMOC over the study period prevents us from deriving any robust interpretations regarding potential teleconnections at a decadal-scale between past north-Atlantic westerly storminess activity, solar forcing, the NAO and north-Atlantic surface and deep oceanic circulation.”

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5 responses to “New Proxy Data Show Northern Europe Weather Variability In Sync With Natural Factors: Solar Activity, Oceanic Cycles”

  1. Phil Salmon

    This paper starts with the important observational fact of significant climate and weather variation completely unrelated to CO2. However in my view it goes too far in trying to pin down every recorded change to a specific cycle (NAO, AMO, AMOC). The paradigm is wrong that all these “cycles” are separate and independent phenomena equivalent to cog/wheels in a mechanical watch. They are not separate but linked, epiphenomena of chaotic-nonlinear oscillation of the ocean driven system as a whole.

    Focusing on NAO, AMO and AMOC as separate entities reminds me of the story of four blind men grabbing hold of the trunk, tusk, leg and tail of an elephant and concluding – depending on what they had hold of – that the object was a snake, a stone, a tree or a rope, respectively. The bigger picture is that it’s an elephant.

    It will weaken arguments for natural (non anthropogenic) climate variability to make spurious attempts to explain all variation to specific external forcing. That is the same error as attribution to CO2 forcing alone.

    However I’m not saying there is no external forcing. When one looks at very long term Milankovitch forcing (mainly obliquity) of the Quarternary glacial-interglacial cycles it is clear that solar forcing can be strong on some timescale. However at other time scales external forcing is weak compared to internal dynamic, and the resulting pattern is chaotic and intractable. The system is chaotically excitable and the observed fractal like variability is the result of interplay of internal chaotic oscillation with external forcing that varies between strong (e.g. Milankovitch, obliquity) and weak (solar cycles of decades or century timescale).

    1. Petit_Barde

      “The bigger picture is that it’s an elephant.”

      And this elephant is in the alarmists room and they can’t CO2 erase it.

      🙂

  2. New Proxy Data Show Northern Europe Weather Variability In Sync With Natural Factors: Solar Activity, Oceanic Cycles | Un hobby...

    […] J. Goslin in P. Gosselin, June 1, 2019 in […]

  3. Jérôme Goslin

    As the lead author of this publication, I am amazed (but not surprised) that the first use that is made of this work is by a blog like yours.

    You reading of our article is incredibly biased and the message you try to disseminate on the back of our work has nothing to do with our findings and with the way we discuss them.

    Our work as nothing to do with trying to pinpoint the role of CO2 in climate change. The ONLY thing our study try to achieve is to reconstruct past-storminess activity and to explore links with literature available reconstructions of some probable forcing factors. Our work, in any case, do not allow to conclude as you do that:”In layman terms: solar and oceanic cycles play the major roles in climate variability.Co2 as sole driver is pathetic unscientific nonsense”. And the main reason is that we have not compared our data with CO2 reconstructions!

    To answer one of the comment above, trying to explore each of the focing separately is the only option we have. If you were reading scientific articles carefully, instead of maliciously extracting sentences out of their context, you would read that we of course consider that all TSI, NAO and AMOC processes are linked. And you may notice, that in this case we don’t make “spurious attempts to explain all variation to specific external forcing”. We just explore relationships, as best as we can. And paper after paper, we have hope that free and independant science will hopefully manage to disentangle how this complex machinery that is earth works.

    Orientated and conspirationnist blog like yours are just hurdles in the way of knowledge and have for only (but very unpleasant) effect to cover scientific step-by-step advances with a glaze of severe dis-honesty.

    Please stay within your stinky politic circles (you even better stop any of your actions) and stay off the legs of science.

  4. Yonason

    “And paper after paper, we have hope that free and independant science will hopefully manage to disentangle how this complex machinery that is earth works.”

    So, what are you saying? That the science isn’t as “settled” as the warmists claim it is? At least that’s the message I take home from this. Is that too “conspirationnist”(sic) for you?

    ”Please stay within your stinky politic circles (you even better stop any of your actions) and stay off the legs of science.”

    Or, in the vernacular ”GET OFF MY LAWN!”

    Ooooh kay then.

    Maybe when you cool off you could recommend some papers that CLEARLY EXPERIMENTALLY show “significant correlation” of weather/climate with [CO2]? You see, if your work really does show the “significant correlation” of weather with the variables you studied (it seems it does), but the same cannot be demonstrated for CO2 (I’ve never seen it), then the conclusions Pierre comes to are legitimate, regardless of your not explicitly stating so in your paper.

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