A new scientific paper affirms “all the long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges of the world consistently show a negligible acceleration since the time they started recording in the late 1800s/early 1900s” and there is “no sign of climate models predicted sharply warming and accelerating sea level rise.”
Image Source: Boretti, 2019
An accurate determination of sea level rise acceleration trends requires at least 100 years of data due to the natural (60- to 80-year) oscillations that could bias the results depending on the start and end dates.
There are 88 world tide gauges with a record length of at least 100 years in the psmsl.org data base. Of those, 76 have no data quality issues.
The average rate of rise for these 76 global-scale tide gauges is just 0.337 millimeters per year (mm/yr), and the acceleration is a “negligible” 0.007 mm/yr².
Thus, the average rate of sea level rise for the world’s best long-term-trend (LTT) tide guages amounts to about 3½ centimeters per century.
Further, the relatively high (2 to 3 mm/yr) local rates of sea level rise in the studied region (the Mexican Caribbean) were determined to be primarily associated with land subsidence. This affirms the conclusion (Piecuch et al., 2018) that geological processes, or vertical land motions, are more influential than climate-related processes in establishing local relative sea level trends.
These results once again serve to undermine the model-based claims that the world’s seas are sharply rising and accelerating due to CO2-induced global warming.
Boretti, 2019
A realistic expectation of sea level
rise in the Mexican Caribbean
“Because of the well-known multi-decadal natural oscillations of periodicity up to quasi-60 years (Chambers, Merrifield & Nerem, 2012; Schlesinger & Ramankutty, 1994), not less than 100 years of continuous recording in the same location and without quality issues are needed to compute rates and accelerations by linear and parabolic fittings. However, not a single tide gauge has been operational since 1870 in the southern hemisphere, and very few tide gauges have been operational since 1870 in the northern hemisphere.”
“If we now take a subset of the 1269 tide gauge records of www.psmsl.org, requesting a range of not less than 100 years, there are 88 tide gauges total around the world satisfying this criterion. If we neglect the tide gauges having quality issues, such as data originating from multiple tide gauges, misaligned data, significant gaps, there are then 76 tide gauges left. These tide gauges have an average rate of rise 0.337, max. 6.660, min. -7.903 mm/yr., and an average acceleration 0.00700, max. 0.06090, min. -0.05560 mm/yr².”
“All the long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges of the world consistently show a negligible acceleration since the time they started recording in the late 1800s/early 1900s, much less than the +0.022 mm/yr2.”
“Hence, the state of the oceans cannot be described as sharply warming and accelerating since 1870, as there is yet no sign of the climate models predicted sharply warming and accelerating sea level rise.”
Image Source: Boretti, 2019
“Apart from land motions of longer and wider scales, it is however important to measure the local vertical motion of the land in an absolute reference frame. From GPS monitoring of fixed domes nearby the tide gauge, the subsidence in Key West is comparable to the relative sea level rise. In the nearby global positioning system (GPS) dome of CHIN, distance to tide gauge 400 m, with data 2008.91 to 2018.99, the subsidence is -3.017±2.256 mm/yr. (Blewitt, Hammond, & Kreemer, 2018). The relative sea level, rises here, mostly because of the land sinks. On a shorter, but still long, time-frame, Peltier (1986) calculated the GIA subsidence of the Atlantic margin for the entire east coast of the United States, with specific for Florida a subsidence rate of about 1 mm/yr.”
A definite rise in ignorance and a definite decrease in tolerance, for sure.
It is settled then, after one hundred years of observations, recorded data, the tides roll in, the tides roll out, the increase in sea level rise appears to be negligible. New York City doesn’t have bluefin tuna swimming down Wall Street, there is some relief from all of the catastrophic climate change going on somewhere. Where, who knows?
Except for an occasional tsunami, the planet’s oceans remain at a steady level with no propensity to rise suddenly.
Can’t really ignore what is there. The oceans are not rising fast enough, but they’re gonna, you just wait and see. I won’t hold my breath.
The standard calculated pre-Industrial Age 280 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere to 400 ppm today is a 40 percent increase.
Should be some real changes going on immediately with that kind of increase in concentration if CO2 is doing the forcing.
All of the melting in Greenland means only one thing, the air temperature increased so the ice and snow can melt, nothing else, my wag is the sun is up to its dirty tricks once again, happens every year it seems.
Another day of consuming crude oil, one hundred million barrels, and twenty million tons of coal on top of it all will crank the CO2 emissions up another notch.
Not much change going on in the fossil fuel consumption rate, gotta happen. If it isn’t guano mining, it’s oil exploration and production.
Don’t forget about methane and the Haber-Bosch process. Consuming all of that natural gas to manufacture anhydrous ammonia has to have some effect. Pure hydrogen collected from the process is a freebee.
The direct effect happens when you apply anhydrous ammonia during seeding of your Roundup Ready gmo soybeans, corn, and canola, even your non-gmo wheat and barley seed, the nitrogen in the anhydrous greens up your nascent shoots in the very beginning. The days of yellow-green growth, low nitrogen, are gone. You can go ahead and apply your Roundup to the Roundup Ready gmo crops and all of the weeds will die. Saves diesel fuel by the millions of gallons, you don’t have to cultivate the field, the herbicide does it for you.
It is precision agriculture going on out there in this post-modern world.
Tremendous amounts of natural gas are consumed manufacturing anhydrous ammonia. It is done because it has feck, an economic impact that is positive. If applying anhydrous ammonia to soils didn’t do anything, none of it would be used. Modern guano mining at its finest.
Soybeans fix nitrogen to the soil, the next year, you can plant barley and have a bumper crop.
Then there are 7.6 billion human beings exhaling one kilogram of CO2 right directly into the atmosphere every doggone day, it is an outrage for this to happen.
And cows get blamed, who raises cattle? Where do all of the human beings live? In large populated areas, raising carbon dioxide concentrations even more in densely populated cities where all of the Chicken Littles live, oh the irony.
I read accuweather’s forecast back some ten days ago, somewhere in that time frame. The 90-day forecast had two days of rain in late June and one in July, the forecast had sunshine and warmer temps, but not above normal.
Last Thursday night, it rained, Friday had rain showers. Then Saturday had a high temp of maybe 60 F, I read 55 F in the late afternoon. Rained on Saturday off and on.
Then last Saturday night early Sunday morning, it rained a good two inches and maybe more. Sunday’s high temp was about 63 F.
It’s settled, late spring temps can be cooler and lower than normal. Whoddathunkit?
The rain was needed in the worst way possible.
Two inches of rain will be approximately 54,000 gallons on each acre of land. 43,560 cubic feet times 7.48 gallons per cubic foot divided by 6 equals 54,304 gallons of water from a two inch rain. Numbers that actually have some meaning, you know.
Predicting what the weather will be and what the weather actually ends up to be are two different kettle of fish.
Accuweather’s forecasting capabilities aren’t worth beans.
A bit suspicious to the observer. Agenda-driven forecasting is forcing me to lose faith in what accuweather offers.
Provide the daily high record temp, the daily low record temp with the current temp and conditions.
Just the facts. Weather.gov is maybe where to go, looks that way.
Plenty of ice surrounding Baffin Island, Hudson’s Bay is not ice-free yet.
Baffin Island has sunrise at 8:00 PM and sunset at 8:00 PM. The sun shines night and day up there.
The catastrophic anthropogenic global warming enthusiasts are quaking, catastrophic climate change alarmists are dismayed, taken aback.
The catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and climate change is happening in the noosphere of climate change doomers, no place else. lol
Do not forget the periodical change.
Acceleration and retardation as seen here:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?plot=50yr&id=140-012
Pic any!
I and others have mentioned before:
The ice most easily melted, that of low elevation and low Latitude, was melted many years ago.
Thank you so much for publishing this. Have passed the link on with enthusiasm.
Thanks!
I’m confused. Is this a claim of the world’s tidal gauges or just the “Mexican Caribbean,” whatever that covers.
The answer is in the paper.
The world’s 76 tide gauges with 100+ years of data and no quality issues.
Mostly located in Finland and Sweden … i’d say this is a pretty big issue.
Or do we now take data from small regions and extrapolate to the globe from those? Like some do with heat content reconstructions or arctic temperatures or ice extent? Some being skeptics like you 😉
Well done Seb, for once. (Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.)
It was my immediate expostulation on seeing the two posts.
Insufficient thermometers to derive the true rate of warming, and yet we are fine extrapolating the rate of the rise in ocean levels from 76 tide gauges.
………………………………………………………..337 mm per year is not 3.5 cm per century?
[…] Read more at No Tricks Zone […]
Oh dear this is not going to play well with the
“Aaaaaggggghhhhh!!!” we’re all goona drown” barking idiots of the cAGW persuasion. A bit too close to unalarming reality for them.
But then, when you are touched with the “here be dragons” notion, as cAGW types are, that is all they can see — Dragons everywhere.
The reality is that there is NO appreciable accelerated sea level rise, there never has been, and its highly probable there will not be in the lifetime of every one living today. Still, watch out (!) there might be DRAGONS! 🙂
[…] Read more at No Tricks Zone […]
[…] https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/20/worlds-76-best-tide-gauges-100-years-of-data-show-a-mean-0-34-mm… […]