Perspective: 575,000 People Died From 2009 H1N1 Pandemic…500,000 People Die From The Seasonal Flu Each Year

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During the winter of 2016-’17 nearly 25,000 Italian citizens died from the seasonal flu. No one blinked.

In well over 3 months since its purported inception, the COVID-19 virus is claimed to be responsible for less than 50,000 deaths globally (as of the 1st of April).

Every year, about 500,000 people from across the world die from the five-month-long seasonal flu.

During the last pandemic, the swine flu (H1N1) killed up to 575,000 people.

This was interestingly classified as “fairly mild” for total pandemic deaths in 2012 (ABC NEWS).

Image Source: ABC NEWS

A closer look at Italy

A recent study (Rosano et al., 2019) indicates that 68,000 Italians died from the flu during the 2013-’14 to 2016-’17 flu seasons.

Specifically, there were 24,981 flu deaths in 2016-’17 and 20,259 seasonal flu fatalities occurred in 2014-’15.

These high death rates from the flu epidemic didn’t receive global attention.

Image Source: Rosano et al., 2019

Italy currently (1 April, 2020) has surpassed 13,100 deaths attributed to COVID-19 infections.

But it is highly likely the COVID-19 virus has been circulating throughout Italy for months, not weeks.

According to two Stanford medical professors, an entire Italian town of 3,300 was tested for the virus on the 6th of March (2020). 2.7% tests came back positive, which was 130 times greater an infection rate than the infection rate confirmed by that date.

Image Source: the Blaze

What this means is the infection rate is perhaps two orders of magnitude more extensive than we know.

Accurate calculation of death rates can only be inferred from dividing the deaths by the total number of infected cases – not just the confirmed ones.

Consequently, the death rate from infection could be far lower than we currently imagine…on par with, or even lower than, the seasonal flu.

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21 responses to “Perspective: 575,000 People Died From 2009 H1N1 Pandemic…500,000 People Die From The Seasonal Flu Each Year”

  1. Perspective: 575,000 People Died From 2009 H1N1 Pandemic…500,000 People Die From The Seasonal Flu Each Year — NoTricksZone - Climate- Science.press

    […] über Perspective: 575,000 People Died From 2009 H1N1 Pandemic…500,000 People Die From The Seasonal Flu … […]

  2. Tom Anderson

    This does not directly respond to the above column, other than in regard to the high likelihood of enormous exaggeration and deception. Here are two URL addresses of a revealing comment by that most frank of writers:
    “I Got the Coronavirus – Enough with the Hysteria!” by anonymous, 2 April 2020.

    https://principia-scientific.org/i-got-the-coronavirus-enough-with-the-hysteria/

    https://www.thepostil.com/i-got-the-coronavirus-enough-with-the-hysteria/

  3. Fer

    Sorry, You get wrong. In Italy, in last year we have not many died for flu. In this time, only Bergamo have more 400% died for coronavirus than flu. Our ISS or Superior Institute Sanity, say that we dead with Coronavirus and not for Coronavirus. More cases are recorded for “bilateral pneumonia” and not “Coronavirus”. Please, you must inform yourself and after you can tell about our Nation!

  4. Penelope

    When one tests 1000 people & finds 100 test-positives, this is obviously a 10% incidence among those tested. When one tests 2000 & finds 200 test-positives, it does not mean the virus is spreading exponentially. It means only that one is increasing TESTING, which still shows 10% of those tested.

    Testing in the US continues to show that 10-15% of those tested are positive. We are told repeatedly that we should be tested only if symptomatic. If it is the symptomatic who are test-positive @ 10-15%, then the general population must test lower. However it is not clear whether the testing is indeed being restricted to the symptomatic.

    Here, the number of tests are plotted against the positives in a graph. I personally would have preferred to be given also the absolute numbers and the source, but assuming this is kopacetic, here is the link. https://coronadaten.wordpress.com/ graphs showing test-positives to be a function of number of tests, at a ratio of 10-15%.

    Much like the global warming hoax, the 6 media companies continue for political reasons to shout that there is a tipping point coming.

    1. Scott

      This data shows 25% of those tested in the U.S. come back positive, and it’s trending up.

      https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/04/april-2-update-us-covid-19-test-results.html

      1. Penelope

        Scott, I hope that it is true that 25% are now test-positive. This would mean that we are moving towards herd immunity.

        The virus infects a person and his immune system knocks it down; its survival depends upon finding another host before Case 1 knocks it down. HERD IMMUNITY occurs when 80% of us test positive, or shortly thereafter when 80% of us have knocked it down (have antibodies).

        At this point the virus cannot find another host and as the last few cases knock it down it is extinguished. This is herd immunity and it happens with each new corona virus.
        Herd immunity lasts for two years.

        The dreaded “Second Wave” will occur in the favorable Fall conditions unless we develop herd immunity. Guess what prevents our achieving it? Shutting down normal interaction, closing schools, businesses, etc.

        The norm is that each successive virus peaks, which is exactly what causes herd immunity, then is extinguished. jBy flattening the curve we are prolonging its survival and possibly guaranteeing a Second Wave.

        Here is an expert who is a delightful communicator
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

  5. IHME Data UPDATE 2 April Why This is NOT like the Flu – Newscats Hasslefree Allsort

    […] Perspective: 575,000 People Died From 2009 H1N1 Pandemic…500,000 People Die From The Seasonal Flu … […]

  6. Penelope

    Italian doctors reported that they had already observed severe cases of pneumonia in northern Italy at the end of last year. However, genetic analyses now show that the Covid19 virus only appeared in Italy in January of this year. „The severe pneumonia diagnosed in Italy in November and December must therefore be due to a different pathogen,“ a virologist noted. This once again raises the question what role the Covid19 virus, or other factors, actually play in the Italian situation. https://www.nzz.ch/wissenschaft/coronavirus-der-stammbaum-verraet-woher-es-kommt-ld.1548271

    On March 30, we mentioned the list of Italian doctors who died „during the Corona crisis“, many of whom were up to 90 years old and didn’t actively participate in the crisis at all. Today, all years of birth on the list have been removed (see however the last archive version). A strange procedure.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20200328152430/https://portale.fnomceo.it/elenco-dei-medici-caduti-nel-corso-dellepidemia-di-covid-19/ List of doctors including psychiatrists and pediatricians, mainly retired, with their birth dates. This was widely reported including by the Governor of California, as if the doctor “died on the front lines”.

    Both items were reported on https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

  7. David Appell

    climate truthers = covid truthers

    No surprise, really. Shows your complaints aren’t about climate at all, just about…everything.

    Back to “The Bet:” still not ready to concede, Pierre?

    If I’ve calculated correctly, the average anomaly of (RSS LT, UAH LT) for the next 9 months must average +1.7 C.

    Is that right?

    Just how do you suppose that’s supposed to happen? Huh?

    1. Peter

      “climate truthers = covid truthers

      No surprise, really. Shows your complaints aren’t about climate at all, just about…everything.”

      No, it shows caring about facts, whatever the subject or issue may be.
      (Facts do not come from computermodels making predictions about the future)

      1. SebastianH

        No, it shows caring about facts, whatever the subject or issue may be.
        (Facts do not come from computermodels making predictions about the future)

        No, it shows that you guys think you are experts on any subject. It’s Dunning Kruger taken to the extreme 😉

        P.S.: Wasn’t there some cooling about to be happening? The cold sun or something? Why does it look like this year will again be exceptionally warm?

  8. David Appell

    Pierre wrote:
    “During the winter of 2016-’17 nearly 25,000 Italian citizens died from the seasonal flu. No one blinked.”

    Are you saying you really don’t understand why COVID-19 isn’t the flu?

    What’s the difference in the availability of a vaccine?

    What’s the difference in R0?

  9. Penelope

    David Appell, The new corona virus, like the old ones, can be a factor in mortality– esp among the old & infirm. But so far ALL experience in every country indicates that this one (covid) is weaker than the others: It is too weak for children to become ill from it despite their incomplete immune systems.

    The footprint of this virus is the same as death from natural causes. In any event, it is less lethal so far than either influenza A or B

  10. John F. Hultquist

    The Wall Street Journal (April 2) reports on a major soccer game of the Champions League, played in the stadium San Siro. Played on February 19th, just before the folks in Italy realized the virus was in the area.
    There was a mass gathering for the Brescia Folk Festival of San Faustino. The WSJ says there were other large gatherings but doesn’t mention them by name.
    These activities brought thousands of people into close contact.
    There are several other reasons why the region near Milan is now infamous. Someone should make a list.

    Meanwhile, in Washington State, USA – after a really bad situation in an elderly/ill care center — deaths have slowed and now number about 275. That’s about 0.000037 % of the State’s population.
    “Cases” reported is not useful because the State has been testing only medical responders and known sick folks. The Governor has extended the lock down until May 4th. Businesses and lives are being destroyed and there will be no recovery for many.
    Still, in 2 weeks many of us will get $1,200.
    All will be good than! {sarc}
    Next month should be even better. Right?

    1. Penelope

      John– You gotta see this. Citizen journalist went out to investigate all these crowded hospitals & testing sites.
      Loook what they found.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pIMD1enwd4

      Post this everywhere. We CAN overthrow this. This time the bad guys have overstepped themselves.

  11. Studie: Durchbruch bei der Corona-Behandlung? Trump hat Massenkäufe der Medikamente angeordnet. – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

    […] Update 3.4.2020: Perspektive: 575.000 Menschen starben an der 2009 H1N1 Pandemie…500.000 Menschen … […]

  12. Peter

    I read an interview with the first Dutch patient. He had been on a business trip to Northern Italy.

    He was in hospital for a couple of days, but quickly recovered.

    His wife and daughter were also diagnosed with the virus but showed no illness.

    Being the first patient, the authorities wanted to trace all his contacts.
    He and his wife wrote up a list of about 100 people they had been in contact with.

    Wanna guess how many people out of those 100 also developed the illness?

    Zero, nobody

  13. A C Osborn

    What does the author not understand about the difference between 12 months of Flu compared to 2 months of COVID19 which is still accelerating?
    How many countries instituted Social Distancing & Lockdowns for Flu?
    The number of dead in China is estimated to be at least 10 times the number they have declared and may actually number in the Millions judging by the 21 million drop in Mobile Phones usage.
    Does the author remember when China invoked the sort of draconian lockdown for COVID19 for any kind of Flu?
    These comparisons to flu are totally invalid, there have been 55,000 deaths declared in 2 months during the ramp up with Social Distancing and Lockdowns.
    It has not even started to accelerate in the 3rd world nations yet.

  14. Ron

    It is unbelievably stupid to draw any meaningful conclusions before the pandemic is over cause nobody can foresee the future.

    What is possible to assess is the excess mortality compared to the average of death cases during flu season. This one is ramping like crazy in the hot spots of COVID-19 outbreak. And now is already after flu season.

    Coincidence? Very unlikely.

  15. Penelope

    Ron, it is the job of science to understand phenomena so that the future is predictable. This is a corona virus, and all our past experience, including our experience with this particular virus in the places where it has already peaked show the same pattern:

    This virus, like the seasonal influenzas, show a gradually increasing incidence in the population, until approximately 80% of the population produces antibodies against it & it is then extinguished for approximately 2 years. The increasing incidence (test-positives, followed by antibody-positives) do NOT herald an exponential doomsday of illness & death.

    I’m sure you are familiar with physical phenomena which show an increase, even a sharp increase, which then stops.
    The “ramping like crazy” which you note is NOT greater than in previous severe seasonal flu years.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg is extremely enlightening.

  16. Philippe Rouzaut

    During an influenza epidemic, I do not remember seeing the overwhelmed hospitals and the health authorities announced thousands of deaths per day !!!

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