The IPCC Claimed Earth Warmed 0.6°C From 1861-2014. Now It’s Claimed Earth Warmed 1.72°C From 1850-2015

The magnitude of claimed global warming since the mid-1800s has tripled from 0.56°C to 1.72°C in the last few years.

As recently as 1994, the IPCC claimed global surface temperatures had risen “0.3 to 0.6°C” (0.45°C) since 1861. By 2001, it was changed to 0.61°C warming from 1861 to 2000 (IPCC TAR 2001).

Image Source: IPCC TAR 2001

In 2013, the IPCC claimed there was a hiatus from warming from 1998-2012 and that “almost all CMIP5 historical simulations [111 of 114] do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus” (IPCC AR5 2013). In 2014 the journal Nature was still investigating “the case of the missing heat” in the 16-year hiatus (Tollefson, 2014). As recently as 2015 scientists were still pointing out “global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century.” (Lee et al., 2015).

HadCRUT3 – the dataset the IPCC used until AR5 – suggested a slight ~0.05°C cooling from 2001 to 2014, which would mean the warming from 1861 to 2014 amounted to about 0.56°C.

Image Source:

Now a new study (El-Borie et al., 2020) claims global surface temperatures rose 1.72°C from 1850 to 2015, which would mean more than 1.1°C warming has been added to the mid-1800s to 2010s temperature trend just in the last few years.

Image Source: El-Borie et al., 2020

Interestingly, this same paper claims Total Solar Irradiance variations alone are responsible for 0.5°C of the warming from 1950 to 2016, with the decline in cloud cover corresponding to galactic cosmic ray intensities since the early 1980s.

Image Source: El-Borie et al., 2020

So without the added/changed/adjusted temperatures during the last few years, it could be said that changes in TSI are mostly responsible for recent warming.

Perhaps this is why the added/changed/adjusted temperatures have just recently appeared.

11 responses to “The IPCC Claimed Earth Warmed 0.6°C From 1861-2014. Now It’s Claimed Earth Warmed 1.72°C From 1850-2015”

  1. patrick healy

    Oh Pierre!
    You are far too charitable to these gangsters who manipulate the figures.
    There is no ‘perhaps’ about it – this is exactly why these added/changed/adjusted temperatures appeared. They are not new – for over twenty years now the figures have been fiddled.

    1. raygun

      It seems to be a trait of the environ-mental (pun intended) wackos. I say, let’s hold off on any future “predictions” until 2050 and then see if are still here. Regards, hard core realist, retired mechanical engineer, physicist, petroleum geologist and astronomer.

  2. Chris Hanley

    The 1.72C GST rise claimed must be a misprint, it should read 0.72C:
    Besides, stating a global surface temperature rise since 1850 to two decimal points is clearly absurd.

  3. Chris Hanley

    That should be two decimal places.

    1. raygun

      Which makes the argument a moot point.

  4. BoyfromTottenham

    Have they no shame?

  5. Petit_Barde

    At least they acknowledge the H Svensmark theory and have the honesty to reference his work :

    H Svensmark E Friis-Christensen, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 59, 1225 (1997)

    even if he published more recent articles and his work have been confirmed by the CERN CLOUD experiment (Jasper Kirkby) :

    “Although most aerosol particle formation requires sulphuric acid, CLOUD has shown that aerosols can form purely from biogenic vapours emitted by trees, and that their formation rate is enhanced by cosmic rays by up to a factor 100.”

    Sadly, the CERN does not mention the seminal work of Svensmark and Jasper Kirkby never mentioned it in his presentation of the CLOUD project which is profoundly embarrassing :

    So, nothing new in their finding and CO2 has little or nothing to do with any temperature evolution since there is, if anything, a weak negative correlation between CO2 and global low troposphere temperatures, as showed in the cross-correlation diagram presented by Murry Salby years ago (CO2 -> T in the left part of the diagram) :

  6. Martin

    Its been over 10 years they keep altering the past. Well, I notice and I don’t find the new temperature reconstruction credible. The 70’s cooling scare is also gone (it’s now a other hiatus)…

  7. De weekendupdate met de laatste nieuwtjes -

    […] Phones in Primary Schools Smartphone Mi Note10 – Xiaomi still plays with consumers health! The IPCC Claimed Earth Warmed 0.6°C From 1861-2014. Now It’s Claimed Earth Warmed 1.72°C From 1… The Pandemic Reveals a Europe More United than the United States The UK is Winning on Food Waste […]

  8. Dr Roger Higgs (geologist)

    Svensmark is right. It’s the Sun …

    Goodbye IPCC. Truth will prevail.

  9. rw

    Seems we’re getting pretty close to the 2 degree mark, where we’re all supposed to fry. What will they do when the claim is 2 degrees and no one notices the difference?

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