Great Britain September Mean Temperatures Cooling. Also: Models Suggest Harsh, Long Winter Ahead

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

Compiled data show Great Britain early fall has been cooling over the past quarter century and models showing a harsh Europe 2020/21 winter in the works. 

Compiling September data for Great Britain recorded by 14 stations for which the Japan meteorological Agency (JMA) has sufficient data, we plot the trends as follows:

Data: JMA

11 of 14 stations show September mean temperatures have been cooling or no trend for 25 years. This suggests that fall is approaching earlier instead of later, thus co0ntradicting alarmist claims of warming.

The cause of the cooling cannot be linked to CO2 and is likely driven by natural factors, such as oceanic cycles (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and solar activity.

Source: NCAR UCAR

Frigid European winter in the works?

Meanwhile, the latest CFSv2 forecast for the coming winter suggests frigid conditions for Europe. Hat-tip: SnowFan

Source: Meteociel CFSv2 forecasts winter 2020/21 Europe

The experimental numerical NOAA model CFSv2 sees a cold and long winter in large parts of Europe. The temperatures in about 1500m (850hPa) will be mostly and partly strongly below the WMO mean 1981-2010, especially from January 2021 until May 2021. If these of course still very uncertain repeated cold forecasts come true, it could become a historically cold and especially long winter.




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9 responses to “Great Britain September Mean Temperatures Cooling. Also: Models Suggest Harsh, Long Winter Ahead”

  1. Steve

    Yeah not gonna happen.Winter will have the usual above,near and below days,you know like most of the time.A normal winter,nowhere near the extremes shown on the maps.All these forecasts are as reliable as me sticking my finger outside in summer to predict what the weather will be in the winter.
    Also something coming from “Snowfan” makes me take these predictions with a huge grain of salt.

  2. RickWill

    Anyone forecasting the globe will warm over the next 100 years is wrong; or cool for that matter is also wrong unless there is a major volcano. The ocean temperature is stuck between sea ice at the poles that sets the lower limit of 271.3K and monsoon plus tropical cyclone at the equator setting upper limit to 305K.

    The only ocean surface warmer than 305K is the Persian Gulf because topographical conditions prevent tropical cyclones forming in the gulf.

    There has been no warming detected along the equator in the last 40 years. Easy enough for anyone to check for themselves:
    https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/

    The temperature in Europe is related to what happens in the North Atlantic and right now it is a bit colder than average but is a bit player from the perspective of global energy.

  3. Adam Gallon

    Now, how many times over the past couple of decades, have we been “promised” a winter of 47 or 62/63?

    1. tom0mason

      Adam Gallon,
      ““promised” a winter of 47 or 62/63?”
      Far too often.
      However in a cooling climate the weather may not initially be that noticeable a change. Cooling would imply —
      1) a lowering of average temperatures,
      and
      2) a gradual expansion of the winter period.

      These could happen singly or concurrently within any one year, becoming more manifest as a cooling climate progresses.

  4. Senex

    A suggestion, if I may to Kyrie. Your graphs are very informative, but there are too many lines on today’s example to be easily traced. Dividing them into two or three graphs with the same scales would make them much more readable. For me, five or six stations per graph is the limit for legibility. Otherwise, great work as usual.

    1. tom0mason

      I agree Senex, too many lines.
      Maybe it would be more effective if they were split into roughly geographical regions – east/west and north/south.
      Or maybe more informative would be regional northwest and southeast split with perhaps midlands/Birmingham at the center, as that is the usual overall split that affects Britain’s prevailing winter weather.

  5. tom0mason

    Here is a look at ECMWF, Meteo France, DWD & JMA Long Range Update: November 2020 To March 2021 from GavsWeatherVids

    https://youtu.be/M3bhz4z72no

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