Current Decade Globally Warmer Than Previous Decade – Due To Powerful Natural Oceanic Cycles, Not CO2

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Early in 2011, NTZ readers and I entered a climate bet with Rob Honeycutt and climate warming dogmatist Dana Nuccitelli. The bet, which I dubbed the Honeycutt Climate Bet for Charity, was whether globally the 2011-2020 decade would be warmer or cooler than the previous 2001-2010 decade.

Myself and and a number of NTZ followers that bet the 2011-2020 decade would see no warming, or even cooling. Conversely Messieurs Honeycutt and Nuccitelli claimed global warming would continue, due to manmade greenhouse gas emissions, of course. To decide the winner of the bet, it was agreed that the RSS and UAH datasets would be used.

Now we are at the end of 2020, and the data suffices to declare a winner. The following chart is the latest UAH from Dr. Roy Spencer:

Chart: Dr. Roy Spencer.

As we can see, before 2016 the global mean temperature had been cooling since 1998, thus establishing what came to be known as “the hiatus”. The early half of the 2011-2020 decade had been running a bit cooler than the previous decade.

But then came the monster 2015/16 El Nino, a natural event occurring at the equatorial Pacific and it saved the warmists from losing the bet:

That ENSO event was the strongest in memory, and thus drove global surface temperatures to a new level. As we can see from the UAH chart above, the overall current decade indeed did become warmer than the previous 2001-2010 decade. I haven’t crunched the numbers, but I think no one will dispute it.

Congratulations to the warmists on winning the bet, all thanks to the natural factors that coolists keep arguing in favor of.

Of course, the bet winners will boast and insist it’s all due to human activity. But it isn’t. Such a claim is Dominion-voting-machine science. The one deciding factor was the powerful mid-decade El Nino event, which is natural and has little to do with people burning fossil fuels.

Personally the results do not change my skeptic view of CO2’s role in climate at all. In fact the results only reinforce my view because it’s crystal clear that the 2016- 2020 warming was due to the El Nino, a natural factor, and not CO2.

200 euros for SOS Kinderdorf e.V. 

Those participating in the bet of course must honor their bets and pay the pledged amounts to a charity helping needy children. I myself will be paying to SOS Kinderdorf e.V., a Germany-based charity set up to aid needy kids, 200 euros (ca. 230 USD). I’ll be posting proof of payment in the days ahead, as soon as the bank statement comes in).

I’ll also be sending an e-mail to the other bet participants and asking them to pay up. Hopefully they are all still with us.

I don’t ever lose my climate bets. But as you can see, there’s always a first time.




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13 responses to “Current Decade Globally Warmer Than Previous Decade – Due To Powerful Natural Oceanic Cycles, Not CO2”

  1. RickWill

    The UAH data has no bearing in the surface temperature. It produces meaningless data from the perspective of surface dwellers and is impossible to check if it provides anything useful.

    Trend the Nino34 data on the second curve:
    https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3j-MHBpf4wRGuhf
    It shows a cooling trend over the last 4 decades.

    UAH needs a Version 7 that is appropriately corrected if it is to bear any resemblance to what happens on the surface.

    The silly part of the bet was choosing UAH. The tropical oceans is where the energy comes in and where it gets rejected when the SST warms above 27C. Reflected solar goes asymptotic toward 32C so that temperature is never exceeded in the open ocean:
    https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg3qPDHvnq-L6w5-5
    The SST cools under monsoonal cloud and tropical cyclones. The thick reflective clouds of cyclones can reflect more than 80% of the TOA insolation:
    https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg20rmI6ZbdeTV0c9

    1. posa

      In Green Climate “theory”, warming is projected to be most pronounced in the lower troposphere … UAH provides the most comprehensive survey of lande and sea and is unaffected by Urban Heat Islands… it is the best indicator of global “temperature”. Currently it shows warming at a rate of 1.4 C per century. That will likely lower considerably if the predicted La Nina emerges.

      The alternatives to UAH satellite data are hopelessly flawed and entirely useless especially when the raw data are biased and tampered with, either at the point of collection or in the “homogenization” stage. Furthermore, only a small portion of the land areas are surveyed (mostly NH urban locations) … ocean surface temperatures are likewise limited and flawed… the best data from ARGO is only 13 year old and has 50% coverage.

  2. John F Hultquist

    the overall current decade indeed did become warmer than the previous 2011-2020 decade.

    previous => 2001 – 2020

    Or I’m having comprehension problems today.
    Looks as though the past 10 years is about 0.22° warmer than the previous ten.
    Mercy!

  3. Coeur de Lion

    I have a £100 bet with warmist Griff that Arctic ice will close out at more than four Wadhams in September. He would have won in 2020 but didn’t take it up. It’s open again for 2021

  4. Ron Clutz

    In a presentation prior to the 2016 El Nino, Dr Salby demonstrated that all the warming since 1945 came from two short term events.

    https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2020/08/salby-surface-temps.gif?w=1000&h=543

    If these two events 1977-1981 and 1994-1998 are removed, the entire 0.6C increase disappears. Global Warming theory asserts that adding CO2 causes a systemic change resulting in a higher temperature baseline. Two temperature spikes, each lasting four years, are clearly episodic, not systemic. A further proof that warming over the last 70 years arose from natural variations, not CO2 forcing.

    [BTW, UAH lower troposphere temp stats are for the air layer up to 4 km altitude. Land stations range up to 3 km elevations.]

  5. ArndB

    I will honor the bet with great pleasure. What I still oppose is the claim as mentioned in the headline above:
    “….Due To Powerful Natural Oceanic Cycles, Not CO2”. There is no “natural oceanic cycle(s)”, there is only PHYSICS, and the entire oceans have an average temperature of ~ 4°C.
    Consider this:
    Global Heat Account – Not without Shipping etc
    Ships push more heat into than out of the ocean – A major source of global warming since industrialization.

    Details (10th March 2018) at: https://oceansgovernclimate.com/global-heat-account-not-without-shipping-etc/

    1. George

      Lacis at NASA on Role of CO2 in Warming
      By Andrew C. Revkin , February 17, 2010 8:47 am February 17, 2010 8:47 am
      ……………….We have come to understand that nothing happens in this world except as allowed by the laws of physics. What this means is that for every physical action there is going to be a well-defined cause, and a well-defined effect. Quantum mechanical weirdness that operates at atomic scale does not invalidate this physical description of the macroscopic range that is of interest.

      https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/lacis-at-nasa-on-role-of-co2-in-warming/

  6. Bernd Felsche

    Not forgotten.

    In the process of selecting a local, Western Australian charity. Takes a bit of time.
    Will advise details when complete.

  7. Dana Nuccitelli

    Well, I suppose that admitting you’re wrong wasn’t part of the bet, so we’ll just have to settle for the denier donations to charity. I do find it amusing that you think one El Niño event 4 years ago is sufficient to have caused the 0.52°C lower troposphere warming over the past decade estimated by the satellites. That is one fuckin’ helluva El Niño.

    Oh, by the way, the current temperature is right where it was at the peak of that monster El Niño. Kind of makes you wonder what physical effect could be causing so much warming now, given that the El Niño ended 4 1/2 years ago.

    Don’t wonder too hard about it though.

  8. Dana Nuccitelli

    We’d be happy to run the bet again for 2021–2030, by the way, if you’re willing to part with more money.

  9. Climate Alarmist Dana Ready To Bet Again On Global Warming. I'm In. | | Climate- Science.press

    […] Not surprisingly, climate alarmist and Guardian contributor Dana Nuccitelli reported in to brag about winning the recent bet. […]

  10. Deniers lose bet on warming (over cherry-picked data), complain about more cherry-picked data | Red, Green, and Blue

    […] apparently Gosselin has seen enough, and recently posted the results. Spoiler alert: He lost! As did the rest of humanity and the planet, as yes, the most recent decade […]

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