Africa climate variability linked to natural oceanic and solar cycles, a new study affirms. No mention of CO2.
Image source: “Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall“.
A new study analyzes patterns of natural rainfall variability and can provide crucial assistance to African countries in seasonal rainfall forecasting for agriculture and protection against droughts & heavy rains.
Understanding natural cycles the key to model projections
Sufficient rainfall is the basic condition for high-yield agriculture and food security for the population. Until recently, however, it was not possible to reliably predict rainfall several months in advance, which repeatedly led to unexpected crop failures. For some years now, however, progress has been emerging. The literature has repeatedly reported exciting correlations between temperature and air pressure patterns on the world’s oceans with rainfall and droughts in Africa and on other continents.
A group of researchers led by Horst-Joachim Lüdecke wanted to know more and meticulously searched for patterns in the monthly rainfall data of 49 African countries for the period 1901 to 2017 using statistical methods.
“Large number of robust correlations”
The scientists compared the rainfall fluctuations with five oceanic indices of natural origin that are firmly established in science, as well as with solar activity. The evaluation revealed a large number of robust correlations across the African continent with characteristic seasonal patterns. It has been known for some time that the Atlantic Ocean influences precipitation in Morocco and the Sahel via the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In East Africa, influences from the Indian and Pacific Oceans have been reported so far.
Lüdecke and his team were able to confirm these connections and add many more relations, differentiated by month with high temporal resolution.
Since some of the correlations have a time lag of up to 11 months, valuable forecasting opportunities are now opening up. These are of great practical use for agricultural planning as well as for protection against droughts and heavy rainfall. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke explains: “At the beginning of the year, for example, parts of Namibia experienced heavy rainfall that caused destructive floods. Our evaluation showed that rainfall intensity in southwest Africa regularly increases in the presence of a negative NAO ocean cycle. So in the future, appropriate precautions can be taken in the region when such a constellation looms again.”
Lake Victoria level linked to Indian Ocean cycles
Co-author Sebastian Lüning from the Institute of Hydrography, Geoecology and Climate Sciences describes another example: “The water level of Lake Victoria in East Africa fell to a historic low in 2006, which was cause for concern at the time. Subsequently, however, the lake level rose again and reached an all-time high at the end of 2020. Today we know: The driver of the changes is apparently the so-called Indian Ocean Dipole. When the index is positive, the lake level of Lake Victoria typically rises and then falls again when the index is negative [See article here]. We were also able to prove such a relation in our study for the rainy season in October and November.”
A co-author from the Technical University of Berlin was instrumental in the complex statistics of the study.
Important forecasting tool for agriculture
The team of authors hopes: “Our results give local and humanitarian planners a good tool to better assess the drought risk, which changes from year to year. This will allow for the timely creation of additional irrigation opportunities in agriculture or the purchase of food in particularly dry years.”
The study was published in early March in the renowned journal “Journal of Hydrology – Regional Studies” and can be downloaded free of charge. This was particularly important to the authors, as the results are thus freely available to all colleagues at African universities and research institutions. The publication fee was kindly covered by the sponsor Jens Kröger.
The original publication can be downloaded here free of charge (open access). Another link to the appendix with numerous additional analyses and data can be found in the online article in Appendix A.
Contact persons:
Prof. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke
University of Applied Sciences HTW Saarland, moluedecke@t-online.de
Dr. habil. Sebastian Lüning
Institute for Hydrography, Geoecology and Climate Sciences (IFHGK), luening@ifhgk.org, Tel. 00351-961470494
Thanks.
Looks like good science.
(Not having gone to the original, yet.)
Fantastic news!
This has vindicated what I’ve said for years …
There are only 3 basic interlocking parameters to watch when studying variations in Earth’s weather/climate system and their variation wrt ocean cycles —
Temperature change (and thus the variations in differential temperatures across areas of the global atmosphere).
The pressure change (and thus the differential pressures across areas of the global atmosphere).
The humidity changes ((and thus the differential humidity variation between & across areas of the global atmosphere).
It is these differentials that sun’s energy sets-up (from equatorial sun-lit side to night side of the planet, and the differential from equatorial to polar regions) that with oceanic cycles rules the weather and its evolution. It’s not and never has been CO2!
During extended warm periods temperature differentials lessen (the poles warm), humidity increases (reduced differential sun-lit side to night side of the planet), pressure differential lessens in line with temperature changes. This leads to more predictable weather and weather/climate patterns.
During extended cool periods temperature differential increases (poles and night temperatures reduce, equatorial temperature drop is a very small amount), pressure differentials increase (following the temperature variation), and humidity slowly drops. This leads to more unpredictable and cooler but more variable weather and climate.
It is the additional ocean/sea temperature variability that can change exactly how any & all of these parameters evolve to produce the weather patterns and thus the climate.
This paper is a useful starting point for water resources risk and planning in Africa.
Southern Africa has received generous rains this year but the drought will inevitably return.
Unfortunately the universal incompetence, corruption and lack of planning in governments across Southern Africa will guarantee hunger and misery when it does.
The findings for South Africa in this paper endorse the findings of the paper published by the great Water Resources Engineer, Professor Will Alexander (Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water development)
Have they got CO2 in Africa?
I hope this is true for that part of South Africa, but I think there is a lot more to be understood with these predictive tools.
Here in Queensland we have been told for years that La Nina years will be wet. Now I only have 29 years of records for my area south of Brisbane, but this year, like all the other La Nina years I’ve experienced, is again dry, at 100mm below average in just 2 months of wet season.
It can’t be just my place, as the SE Queensland water storage is again getting low, & restrictions are likely soon. I really do wonder if we have any handle on weather prediction at all.
It is really heart warming to find some science not polluted with the global warming fraud. My cynicism leads me to ask where is the money in this?
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if it is global warning it id bad , and if it is bad it is global warming.
changes are ALWAYS BAD…if they are man caused.
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