Good news: a warmer, likely tamer climate, is in the future recent science shows. A new study projects no future increase in tropical storm energy.
Lots of government-funded climate scientists like claiming tropical cyclones are getting worse and that in the future we need to expect one supercharged storm after another – due to man heating the climate with carbon dioxide emissions.
But as we noted yesterday here, Zoe Phin found that hurricanes have not gone along with this dubious doomsday science over the past 25 years. Now a new study confirms things will continue that way.
Image cropped from Die kalte Sonne.
Today German site Die kalte Sonne (DkS) presents its 49th video on climate and energy, featuring tropical storm energy.
Present vs future scenario
In the segment, DkS cites a new study appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters, where a team of scientists led by Philip Kreussler used three different global climate models to investigate tropical cyclone integrated kinetic energy which is closely associated with their damage potential.
No notable changes
They compared cyclone integrated kinetic energy between present conditions and a projected future climate scenario.
The results of the high resolution models left little uncertainty: “No intensification of tropical storms,” reports Die kalte Sonne.
The paper’s Plain Language Summary:
We find that an increase in horizontal model resolution results in smaller and more intense storms, but that the range of integrated kinetic energy produced by the models remains similar in both configurations. On the other hand, allowing the atmosphere and ocean to interact with each other in the models tends to reduce the size and the intensity of the storms, resulting in lower integrated kinetic energy. Comparing cyclone integrated kinetic energy between present conditions and a projected future climate scenario did not suggest notable changes between the two periods.”
But can we trust the models?
But these are just model results and climate models are mostly bogus, skeptics like to say, and so we should dismiss these tropical energy models like we dismiss climate models showing warming and doom, right? Not really. Some models seem to do a right good job and actually get compared to real observations. And when significant discrepancies are found, then the models are reworked – or just outright scrapped.
It turns out that Kreussler et al’s models fit well with what we’ve been observing over the better part of the past three decades: declining or steady total tropical storm energy. They seem to be on the right track.
Image: Dr. Ryan Maue