Here are 3 reasons why global surface temperatures will probably see continued cooling over the coming year.
1. La Nina back in the forecast
NASA continues to project La Niña conditions into 2022 thus suggesting vigorous globally time-shifted cooling conditions:
Source. NASA
The NOAA-ENSO forecast also shows La Niña conditions taking hold again later this year:
Hat-tip: Snowfan here
Because the ENSO has moved back into neutral range during the summer, a modest warming of global temperature can be expected in early 2022. But with a lag of about 8 months, global temperatures will tend to cool off by early summer of next year, 2022, in response to the coming La Niña – should the above ENSO projections come true.
2. Soot filtering out sunlight over North America
Another factor that could act to cool the earth’s surface a bit over the short term are the massive wildfires in California and elsewhere this summer. Satellite images show a sun-blocking haze of smoke spreading over large parts of North America:
Satellite image of California wildfire emitting large quantities of smoke into the atmosphere. Image August 6, 2021: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 17.
The following graphic from July 21st shows how much soot was measured in the atmosphere over the US and Canada as wild fires raged:
NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using GEOS-5 data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC and VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Story by Adam Voiland.
3. Low sunspot activity
The previous solar sunspot cycle was one of low activity, and recent sunspot activity has been very low. In fact according to SpaceWeatherLove.com here, the sun currently has no spots.
Chart: SpaceWeatherLive.com
The upcoming solar cycle no. 25 is also expected to be one of low sunspot activity. Such cycles of low activity are linked to periods of cooler earth surface temperatures.
May this will help in understanding in what is really going on. As stated earlier and earlier over the years whatever the IPCC is presenting is political science. This might help (I hope) to explain: https://electroverse.net/jupiters-hot-temperatures-cause-by-auroras-major-implications-for-earths-climate-models/
Valentina Zharkova, one year ago:
“… a timely warning about the upcoming grand solar minimum 1, when solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%. This period has started in the Sun in 2020 and will last until 2053. During this modern grand minimum, one would expect to see a reduction of the average terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0°C, especially, during the periods of solar minima between the cycles 25–26 and 26–27, e.g. in the decade 2031–2043.”
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243
[…] Cooling In The Pipeline? Low Solar Activity, Wild Fire Smoke, La Niña All Setting Up A Cooled 2022? […]
There are a couple of dozen fires in the Western USA contributing to the smoke; plus others in the world.
The Western USA fires can be seen via the MODIS and other satellites.
I use Google Earth with the KML data here:
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/usfs/active_fire/
States, location, size and so on are here:
https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn#Idaho
Still about 700,000 acres below the 10 year mean.
Double dip La Nina. Here in UK I will be pleased with yet a few more cooler years. In Australia they will be pleased with yet a few more wetter, drought-free years.
But for California this is terrible news – especially as some fool has already drained all their reservoirs.
Since July 1st there has been 1/10th of an inch of rain, a sprinkle one day last week is not rain.
Everything dries up without water, water is in limited quantities and is the number one limiting factor this growing season.
With no possibility of irrigating a crop, it is going dry and then die.
When it is all cut and dried, that is what is going to happen. Wheat and oat fields are being hayed, no chance of a decent yield, the bale will be worth more than the grain at this point in time, it is too late to combine, it’s over.
The smoke haze in the sky has been present for six weeks up to now.
The western states and provinces of North America have a fire problem. The smokey air might disperse the direct rays from the sun and mitigate the dryness out in the open. It is hot, June had record temps set this year.
Everything needs water and has to be watered, no choice, has to be done.
Soybeans that should be fifteen inches tall and bushed out are standing maybe 3/4th of a foot tall, no growth, just staying alive, some beans grow enough, not any guarantee of seed pods setting.
Alfalfa roots extend 16 feet down, so the alfalfa will always grow regardless of drought conditions, just not as much.
There is ground moisture and some soybeans are not in poor condition, must be some possibility of a soybean crop in places. Some areas have had more than nine inches of rain, helps a lot. Bluegrass is dry with zero growth, in a wet year, if you let it grow, it’ll be five feet in height.
Two miles west, a farmer with a herd of cattle sold all of them due to lack of water.
With only five inches of rain at my location, it is not that great of a growing year for crops.
Enough to make a grown man cry.
The record temp on this date was 104 degrees in 1939.
Heat waves come and go, droughts come and go.
It all got here this year.
But it’s warm cooling.
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[…] Cooling In The Pipeline? Low Solar Activity, Wild Fire Smoke, La Niña All Setting Up A Cooled 2022? […]