Scientists Find “Surprising” And “Statistically Significant” Cooling Trend Over Entire Continental Antarctica

East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the South Pole, has cooled a whopping 2.8°C over the past 4 decades; West Antarctica approximately 1.6°C. ..only tiny Antarctic Peninsula saw statistically insignificant warming.

German climate website Die kalte Sonne posted its 64th climate video here and examined a new paper on Antarctica by Zhu et al (2021): “An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released its latest ERA5 reanalysis dataset in 2017 and Zhu and his researchers compared the near-surface temperature data from ERA5 and ERA-Interim with the measured data from 41 weather stations.

They found that the temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations. The result: a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula. Note that the regions of east and West Antarctica combined are vastly larger than the tiny Antarctic Peninsula.

Substantial cooling 

The results are summarized as follows (cropped from Die kalte Sonne):

The table above shows East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, saw a cooling of 0.70°C per decade over the past 40 years. In total that particular region has cooled about 2.8°C since 1980.

West Antarctica has cooled at a rate of 0.42°C per decade over the past 40 years.

Die kalte Sonne finds the results “surprising” and “statistically significant”. And though the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed moderately, Die kalte Sonne sees nothing significant happening over this comparatively small region.

This of course should be seen as good news for the global warming alarmists who fear the South Pole might melt.




32 responses to “Scientists Find “Surprising” And “Statistically Significant” Cooling Trend Over Entire Continental Antarctica”

  1. Scientists Find ‘Surprising’ And ‘Statistically Significant’ Cooling Trend Over Entire Continental Antarctica over past 40 years | Climate Depot

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  6. RoHa

    It’s Man Made Global Warming that is causing the Antarctic cooling. You can be sure of that.

  7. garyh845

    Also SST’s around Antarctica have been cooling:

    Fig. 1 Shown in black is the 1982–2014 time series of SST [°C] aver-
    aged between 55°S and 70°S based on the NOAA Reynolds Opti-
    mum Interpolation (Reynolds et al. 2002). The 1980–2014 times eries
    of the annual-mean SAM index based on the ERA Interim reanalysis
    (Dee et al. 2011) is superimposed in gray. The index is defined as the
    first principal component of SLP variability south of 20°S and is nor-
    malized by its standard deviation. Thick straight lines indicate linear
    trends fitted to each time series. Note the reversed scale for the SAM
    time series shown on the right.

    See: http://oceans.mit.edu/JohnMarshall/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/FastandSlow.pdf

  8. Christopher Walsh

    “Much has been written about varying levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a possible cause of glacial periods. The theory received a fatal blow when it was realized carbon dioxide is highly selective as to the wavelengths of radiant energy it will absorb; reflecting only such rays as even very minute quantities of water vapor will dispose of anyway. No probable increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide could materially affect either the amount of insolation reaching the surface; or the amount of terrestial radiation lost to space.”

  9. Rob Honeycutt

    Pierre, please read the paper more carefully. They clearly state that the warming in the Antarctic peninsula is statistically significant, but the cooling in East Antarctica does NOT rise to the level of statistical significance.

    Please correct your post.

    1. Kenneth Richard

      Rob Honeycutt: “They clearly state that the warming in the Antarctic peninsula is statistically significant, but the cooling in East Antarctica does NOT rise to the level of statistical significance”

      The authors write the exact opposite of what you have claimed, Rob.

      Here’s a direct image from the paper. Notice the key says that “the bold font indicates that the trend is significant at the 95% confidence interval“. Then notice that 14 of the 15 monthly/annual records are emboldened (statistically significant) for East Antarctica, whereas 0 of 15 monthly/annual records are emboldened for the Antarctic Peninsula.

      The authors even clearly state: “Over the Antarctic Peninsula, trends of annual and seasonal temperature means in ERA reanalyses and observations are not significant

      It would appear, Rob, that you have been caught making up false claims again…just as you routinely do on Twitter and for the Skeptical Science blog where you write.

      P.S. Like East and West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula has also been cooling since the late 1990s (see: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-05989-4, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969716327152, https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18645). The cooling since the 1990s hadn’t fully taken over the warming from 1979-1999 yet, so that’s why the overall trend is still a slight, statistically insignificant warming when referencing the entire 40-year period.

    2. JasonR

      “The table above shows East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, saw a cooling of 0.70°C per decade over the past 40 years. In total that particular region has cooled about 2.8°C since 1980.”

      Excuse my ignorance, but if this is correct, how could the cooling in East Antartica not be statistically significant?

      1. Kenneth Richard

        “Excuse my ignorance, but if this is correct, how could the cooling in East Antartica not be statistically significant?”

        It’s not your ignorance. Nearly 3 degrees of cooling in 40 years is indeed statistically significant. Rob Honeycutt was just making false statements.

  10. William Astley

    The 20th century warming follows the same pattern as previous warming and correlates with a significant increase/change in the solar magnetic cycle. There was also a significant increase in solar magnetic cycle activity during the other polar see-saws.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenland_Gisp2_Temperature.svg

    The out of phase warming and cooling of the two poles is called by the specialists the polar ‘see-saw’.

    Svensmark explains the mechanism that explains the polar see-saw in the attached paper and provides data …

    Which proves the sun and changes to the geomagnetic field are modulating planetary cloud, high latitudes both poles.

    And a reduction in cloud cover causes warming in the Northern hemisphere and cooling over the Antarctic ice sheet.

    This is a paper by Svensmark that explains how high latitude cloud cover changes cause the effect which is called the polar see-saw.

    Key in Svensmark’s analysis and determination of what is physically causing the polar ‘see-saw. ….

    Is the proof in the paper, using satellite data, that the albedo of the Antarctic decreases when the Antarctic is cloudy.

    This happens physically because the albedo of the Antarctic ice sheet is greater than the top of clouds. The high speed Antarctic winds, on the surface of ice sheet, breaks up the snow crystals to cause the effect.

    Svensmark’s paper uses ice bore hole temperature measurements which provide a record of surface temperatures on the Antarctic ice sheet to find the cyclic temperature changes which correlate out of phase with the temperature on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

    i.e. What is happening now, happened before.

    http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612145v1

    The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays

    Borehole temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the past 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa (Fig. 1) [13, 14]. North-south oscillations of greater amplitude associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events are evident in oxygenisotope data from the Wurm-Wisconsin glaciation[15].

    The phenomenon has been called the polar see-saw[15, 16], but that implies a north-south symmetry that is absent.

    Greenland is better coupled to global temperatures than Antarctica is, and the fulcrum of the temperature swings is near the Antarctic Circle. A more apt term for the effect is the Antarctic climate anomaly.

    1. Interested

      Many thanks, William. Nice summary!
      Your contribution here, in my opinion, demonstrates both the complexity of Earth’s climate and the commendable depth of your inquiry into it.

      After some 12 years of looking into the climate debate myself, though, I’m afraid I’ve come to the conclusion that repeatedly showing unequivocal evidence that climate alarmism is nonsense (non-science if you prefer), does nothing to change the international situation.
      Due to the “long march through the institutions” by the totalitarian globalists over the past 30-odd years – including through schools and universities, global media outlets, and ALL political parties – the climate agenda has become an intrinsic part of most lectures and classroom lessons, all government legislation (federal, state, and local), and almost every TV news program and newspaper story.
      In fact, it’s reached the point where the old cynical axiom should be modified to say: “The only certainties in life are death, taxes, and climate alarmism”!

      Nevertheless, I congratulate you (and so many others) for making the heroic effort to try and introduce at least a few scientific facts into the simplistic world of the CO2 worry-warts.
      Attributing the climate of an entire planet virtually exclusively to minute changes in the concentration of a harmless trace gas, which has never had any demonstrable causative correlation with global temperatures in nearly 4 billion years of geological history, requires an almost incomprehensible lack of scientific understanding.

      1. bonbon

        That ‘Long March’ through the institutions is about to train wreck on a massive scale when the Great Reset runs out of track.

        Couple that to the Afghanistan pile-up and the NATO shipwreck caused by another lorry on autopilot, AUKUSA and nuke subs.

        Popcorn would be a good idea but this carambolage could go thermonuclear even by accident…

  11. djaymick

    The media will continue to focus on the small peninsula to prolong the fear. No one will see this broadcast on our “national news networks”.

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  15. James H. Shanley

    It is possible that the Antarctic Peninsula remained ice free during the last ice age. We know that Wendel island off North Eastern Siberia remained ice free. This was confirmed with the discovery of the remains of a Wooly Mamouth on Wendel Island. The remains were dated to 4000 years ago. Also, the ice sheets did not build up because the poles suddenly got colder but because the poles accumulated more snow than was lost. At maximum the oceans were 400 ft lower than present.
    That required a lot of evaporation. Can anyone tell me where all of the heat came from and where did it go?

  16. James H. Shanley

    Part of the Palmer Peninsula is north of the Antarctic Circle. If the polar ice cap extended to the peninsula there would physical evidence left behind. Lacking such evidence, one would think that the peninsula would be warmer than that covered by the ice cap.

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