Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years

Share this...

In the latest climate and energy video by German site Die kalte Sonne, media claims of increasingly stronger and frequent hurricanes are examined closely and reach the conclusion: “Over the past 170 years, hurricanes have not occurred more frequently or gotten more intense.”

In the wake of hurricane Ida, a number of mainstream media outlets, like German ZDF, blared that hurricanes have gotten worse over the recent decades – due to global warming. But that statement has been found to be driven more by alarmism and activism, and not based on data.

New paper by Vecchi et al

Citing a new paper by Vecchi et al, 2021, appearing in the journal Nature, Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century, the authors found: “The homogenized basin-wide HU and MH record does not show strong evidence of a century-scale increase in either MH frequency or MH/HU ratio associated with the century-scale, greenhouse-gas-induced warming of the planet.”

Hurricane recording before satellite observation started in 1972 was based on eye witness observation, meaning a number of hurricanes before 1972 never got recorded. After adjusting, the authors came up with the following chart:

Source: Nature

The adjusted median frequency for major hurricanes was higher in the 1920s and 1950s than after 2000.

Nothing unusual today

The authors suggest that hurricane frequency is in large part modulated by the natural Atlantic oceanic variability:

After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.”

Despite the 1°C global warming seen since the mid 18th century, hurricane intensity and frequency remained well with the range of natural variability and have not trended upwards. “If anything, it’s a decrease,” reports Die kalte Sonne.




Share this...

12 responses to “Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years”

  1. RoHa

    But they are warmer hurricanes.

  2. Harry Dale Huffman

    I told everyone about this 9 years ago, but people continue only to listen to fake reports:

    Hurricane, Tropical Storm Strength, 1851-2010

    I note, without comment, the appearance of the words, “after adjustment”, in the above report. No, really, I refuse to comment…god, it’s hard not to comment on that.

  3. Cementafriend

    Australia has had many severe cyclones like Cyclone Tracy that destroyed Darwin in Dec 1974. On this site https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/ there is a poster called Australia’s Variable Rainfall with Tropical cyclone tracks which one can download. In this poster there are annual charts for rainfall over the country with cyclone tracks dating from 1910. Everyone can count the cyclones which made landfall. There has been no increase and in fact the number of cyclones making landfall has decreased but due to cycles of the IPO and SOI which are graphed in the poster it is not possible to say anything about a trend as there are not sufficient cycles of the IPO which varies between 25 and 40 years. When the IPO is negative (less than -1)and the SOI is positive (more than +10)then there is the possibility of lots of rain, floods and more cyclones.

  4. Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years – Watts Up With That?

    […] From the NoTricksZone […]

  5. Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years |

    […] From the NoTricksZone […]

  6. Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years – Watts Up With That? – Adfero News

    […] From the NoTricksZone […]

  7. L Kane

    Is there really a dispute over the proposition that warmer ocean waters are fueling greater energy into hurricanes?

  8. John F Hultquist

    HU is the abbreviation for North Atlantic hurricanes.
    MH is similar for Saffir-Simpson Categories 3–5 (peak sustained winds exceeding 50 ms−1).

    So, MH = big and HU = all

    So, MH/HU ratio means the big ones divided by the total.

  9. Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Last 170 Years - altnews.org

    […] Read more at No Tricks Zone […]

  10. Analyse: Hurrikane sind während der letzten 170 Jahre weder stärker noch häufiger geworden | EIKE - Europäisches Institut für Klima & Energie
  11. Analyse: Hurrikane sind während der letzten 170 Jahre weder stärker noch häufiger geworden – Aktuelle Nachrichten
  12. Analyse: Hurrikane sind während der letzten 170 Jahre weder stärker noch häufiger geworden • Cottbuser Freiheit

Leave a Reply

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. More information at our Data Privacy Policy

Close