Is the third La Niña on the way?
By Die kalte Sonne
(Translated, edited by NoTricksZone)
It was supposed to be a groundbreaking forecast, the early prediction of the weather phenomena El Niño and La Niña. Both affect the weather in very different ways.
It would have been so nice to know a year in advance what conditions would prevail at a later date. On November 4, 2019, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research published what was held as groundbreaking news. Thanks to its new algorithms and a lot of computing power, it was now possible to predict an El Niño or a La Niña a long time in advance. The hit rate was supposed to be 80%.
Unfortunately, one year later exactly the opposite of what was predicted in fact happened, the German Klimaschau reported. Science is settled? Well, maybe not.
Since then, things have been quiet about these PIK long-term forecasts. The US agency NOAA is much more cautious, both in terms of the long term and the probability of occurrence. Perhaps they don’t have as good algorithms and the computing power that Potsdam has? In any case on Twitter, US meteorologist Ryan Maue sees a good chance that a third will follow the two recent consecutive La Niñas.
The last time this happened was 22 years ago at the turn of the millennium.
(Image: Screenshot Twitter)
For spring in the U.S., that would mean cooler in the north, wetter in the west, warmer in the south and much drier in the southwest.
(Image: Screenshots Climate.gov)
8 responses to “Another, Third Planet-Cooling La Niña? Dr. Ryan Maue Sees Strong Chance Of This Occurrence”
In the Pacific Northwest of USA (ID/OR/WA), April has been cold.
Records have been broken; see Cliff Mass’s blog for April 14th, 2022.
Commercial fruit growers and gardeners are not amused.
Can confirm the continuing cool weather in W. Washington State. The overnight low early this morning was 29F. At 12:45pm we had managed to reach 48F, then dropped down to 39F by 2:45pm under a thick rain band. A normal daytime high for April 16 is 59F. Only the cold-resistant vegetables have been planted; they are alive, but barely.
Smack dab in the middle of the North American continent, the temps are approaching the record low of 8 degrees F set in 1953. The overnight low is predicted to be 13 degrees F. It’s cold outside. Not a lot of fun.
The record high temp for this date was set in 1906 at 86 degrees F. Temps can vary greatly from one year to the next during early spring weather.
More snow is on the way today to add to the 36 inches that fell between Tuesday to Thursday. Streets are clogged with snowbanks stacked eight feet tall from snow removal work. The daytime temps are warm enough to melt the snow some, but it isn’t going to be gone for a good week or so. Probably the worst blizzard in many years.
The moisture was badly needed. Tough on ranchers working hard during calving season.
Finally got my truck out of the four feet of drifted snow that buried the whole thing.
The sun needs to shine and warm up the place soon, if not yesterday.
Looking at this page
It looks like ENSO was predominantly cold from 1950 until 1975, warm until 2005 and fairly neutral since.
Doesn’t that match the global cooling and warming periods which created speculation about iceages and frying tonight?
At my rural location, the temperature is 4 degrees F this morning. The record low was set in 1928 at 11 degrees F.
A new record low was set overnight on this day, April 18,2022.
Everybody talks about the weather and now the climate, but not much more can really be done.
This is starting to look like a change in the ground state of the Pacific Ocean.
La Niña will persist through the end of the year, bolstered by melting sea ice in the South Pacific in November.