Natural Oceanic Cycles Behind Heavy East Australia Rains, New Study Finds

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East Australia got hit by lots of rain in February earlier this year, and the media of course blamed it all on manmade climate change.

Now a new study by Holgate et al (2022) titled “The Impact of Interacting Climate Modes on East Australian Precipitation Moisture Sources” shows East Australia’s rains are directly tied to natural oceanic patterns.

Hat-tip: EIKE.

The paper’s abstract summarizes that east Australia precipitation is driven by multiple interacting climate modes and that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies the supply of evaporative moisture for precipitation and that this is modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and southern annular mode (SAM).

Eastern Australian rainfall moisture supply.

Sources of moisture in eastern Australia. Source: Holgate et al, 2020

The authors describe how La Niña facilitates local precipitation generation whereas El Niños are associated with below average precipitation.

In an article appearing in the academic CONVERSATION here, the authors noted there are climate oscillations at play in the modulation of east Australia rainfall, primarily the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

“Like swings in a character’s mood, each climate mode has positive, negative and neutral phases. Each affect Australia’s weather in different ways,” write the authors. “La Niña brings wetter conditions to eastern Australia. The IOD’s negative phase, and SAM’s positive phase, can also bring more rain.”

In other words, rains and dry periods depend on what the oceanic cycles are doing, and not CO2. Understanding the key natural cycles is key.

However, the authors do go on to claim that extreme La Niña and El Niño events and weather systems “are expected to worsen due to greenhouse gas emissions”, but that is speculative at best. Co2 does not drive ocean cycles and modes.

When “expected” never shows up

We remind that also Atlantic hurricanes too “are expected to worsen due to greenhouse gases”, yet the opposite has in fact been the case over the past decades. Also the Arctic was expected to be ice-free in the summer by now. But that too has not happened and late summer sea ice there has trended upwards moderately over the past 15 years.

Oceans were expected to warm as well, but as Kenneth noted yesterday, that too has not been necessarily the case. New research suggests the bottom half (2 km to the bottom) of the Pacific has been robustly cooling since 1993!

Prof. John Schellnhuber, former director of the PIK Potsdam Institute, also “expected” the Himalayas to lose their glaciers by 2030, yet that was glaringly exposed as a real doozy of a climate bluff as well.

So when it comes to weather extremes and future projections, it’s really important to separate the science from the climate scamming.




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20 responses to “Natural Oceanic Cycles Behind Heavy East Australia Rains, New Study Finds”

  1. toorightmate

    The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been crying “wolf” on extreme weather for at least 3 years. However, people are so gullible, they continue to live in fear of these messages – which are distributed via MSM.
    The CO2 horseshit has gone on for far too long.

    1. Tom Anderson

      As H.L. Mencken once said of the American public, nobody ever went broke by underestimating their intelligence.

  2. RoHa

    We’ll be having another soggy Summer from Dec to Feb.

    And it’s all your fault.

    The intervening droughts are your fault as well.

    Stop breathing out that nasty CO2, and we’ll have perfect weather all the time.

  3. iggie

    Australia had a ‘record’ drought (2019) followed by lots of flooding rain. As the farmers out in the west here say, ‘The bigger the drought, the bigger the flood’.

    1. toorightmate

      Old Australian bush saying,
      “At the end of every drought, there is good rain”.

      1. RoHa

        Time to start quoting “Said Hanrahan”.

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  12. john R T

    Tonga volcano, Jan., increases atmospheric moisture 10% [Tonga10]

    Tonga10 modifies/modulates the supply of evaporative moisture for precipitation; eeg,
    Brisbane: late-February floods
    Australia and Europe: extended ski-seasons [X Russia, Ukraine]
    Did SE Asia deluge and other atypical precipitation re-balance the regime?
    Was stratospheric energy level increased, lessening heat gradient – fewer tropical Cyclones?
    Thus, delayed Fall onset, w/greater cool-season precipitation?
    21 March 23 is just around the corner

  13. Max Better

    Never Girlcott, but always Boycott https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ban-meat-eating-men-from-sex-animal-rights-group-urges-d9rk3850z

    The animal protection organization PETA has called on men to radically change their diet. Anyone who continues to eat meat should be “banned from having sex,” the group appealed to women. They could thus “save the world.” https://www.peta.de/presse/peta-fordert-sexverbot-fuer-alle-fleischessenden-maenner-speiseplan-von-maennern-verursacht-41-prozent-mehr-treibhausgase-als-der-von-frauen/

    “Men are much worse for the environment than women because they eat too much meat,” Peta campaign leader Daniel Cox told Bild newspaper. He said he hopes for female allies against “suburban dads wielding barbecue tongs and sizzling 70-cent sausages on their 700-euro grills.”

    Background is a study published in November 2021, according to which men are to contribute in particular by the consumption of meat on average approximately 41 per cent more to the climatic change than women. “Therefore, a hefty meat tax of 41 percent for men would be appropriate,” a contribution to the campaign continues.

    According to Cox, the benefit of a sex strike would also likely be a lower birth rate. Each fewer child would also mean 58.6 fewer tons of CO₂ equivalents per year.

    CSU member of the Bundestag Dorothee Bär called the argument “cynical” in an interview with the Bild newspaper. Politics and society were saving the climate for the children. To set them off against CO₂ is repulsive, she said. Her party colleague Florian Hahn called for a “ban on thinking about divisive ideologues” like PETA.

    What enormous luck for Germoney that Ame-
    rican “organizations” and their degenerate re-
    presentatives with English names are allowed
    to dump their ideological garbage in Germany.

    https://music.amazon.de/podcasts/815ece5b-8499-4711-8676-106d1d1523f2/episodes/9a93c054-29c2-4d7f-a9ea-94362f6cd8f2/herd-around-the-barn-ukraine%E2%80%99s-refugees-come-in-all-species-how-peta-germany-and-daniel-cox-are-helping-dogs-cats-escape-war

    If it were really about that, moron Cox could
    achieve much more success with that in the
    Third World, mainly in Africa & Muslim Asia.

    https://www.givelegacy.com/resources/germany-the-lowest-birthrate-in-the-world/

    Is there an economic interest in the meat boy-
    cott, because PETA is a major shareholder in
    Beyond Meat (artificial meat from the chem
    factory)? What did PETA do with their profits
    so far, over 100 million alone in going public?

  14. Max Better
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