Ace Forecaster Bastardi: “Something We Used To See In 1970s”, Warns Of “Spectacular Cold”

Risk of a “spectacular cold outbreak “…have countries let their guard down?

In his most recent Weatherbell Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks ahead at the winter weather over the coming weeks across the globe.

What definitely distinguishes Joe from forecasters I follow here in Germany is that he doesn’t rely solely on the so-called ensemble models to make his longer term forecasts, but goes way back into the archives and searches for similar patterns that took place even decades ago (analogues) in order to better discern which way the weather is likely to turn in the weeks ahead.

German forecasters like here , here and here like to put out videos once or even twice daily to report on what the many model ensembles are showing, which is something no one really needs a meteorological license to do.  Too often you hear these weather pundits suddenly change their 7+ day forecast, in lockstep with whatever the latest ensemble run crunches out. Yet, most of us know that such forecasts are only valid until the next ensemble run because 7 days out the models can and often make U-turns.

“Very concerned” about coming cold

In Joe’s latest forecast, he again makes use of analogue years to forecast weeks ahead. I recall a forecast he made some 2 weeks ago warning that early December likely will turn cold in Europe – long before anyone else – basing it on weather patterns seen over past decades. Lo and behold, now the models are finally seeing wintry weather for next weekend.

In his latest forecast, Joe has become “very concerned” about the coming cold, which is going to be a real problem for not only people in the US, but around the globe.

“Mark my word, if this kind of cold shows up, that we’ve been setting up since the end of summer, and it looks like it at least has merit to consider, there’s going to be a blaming on climate change because of the blocking that caused it.”

Joe worries that many countries aren’t going to have sufficient energy to meet the forecast cold challenges, something politically inexcusable in 2022 with all our modern technology.

The kind of cold and blocking pattern ahead Joe is referring to is something the globe also saw/recorded decades ago and it’s not going to be anything new should it come to past.

Joe shows charts that point to what he says “could be a spectacular outbreak of cold”. Only now are the models showing what Joe had warned of weeks and months ago: northern hemisphere land masses getting gripped by sub-normal cold:

Source: Cropped from Weatherbell

“That’s wild. That’s something we saw back in the 1970s,” Joe notes.

The 1970s also saw energy shortages, and with similar weather patterns. You’d think our leaders would have learned something from all of it. Unfortunately not. Once again a number of countries risk energy shortages this winter.

Of course no forecast is ever certain. But over the years, Joe has often beat the long term forecasts (14+ days out) made by the national weather offices. Goes to show we can learn a lot from weather history.

24 responses to “Ace Forecaster Bastardi: “Something We Used To See In 1970s”, Warns Of “Spectacular Cold””

  1. Michael Peinsipp

    Blizzard of 1978 in KY, IND, etc. etc. etc..
    1″ ice and 25-36″ of snow.

    1. Ric Werme

      And a couple of weeks later the New England Blizzard of ’78.

      1. Michael Peinsipp

        The Blizzard of America from Kansa to Maine ya mean…Louisville KY 1″ ice and 25-32″ snow…and than -65°F in Eastern Jefferson County KY WIND CHILL!
        My MILITARY Jeep froze up…it had antifreeze rating of -50°F!!!

        1. rah

          That Blizzard most certainly wasn’t “the New England Blizzard”. Up near Cleavland, Ohio they the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Continental US not associated with a cyclonic system.

          Indiana recorded its lowest pressure ever and for the first and only time the a state of emergency was declared for the whole state. One could walk from Indiana to Louisville, KY across the frozen Ohio River.

          State wide the Bell Telephone system only allowed emergency calls through. And every road in the state was closed!

          I was out in in the stuff afterward. My cousin had a lifted and hopped up Toyota Land Cruiser FJ40 with big mudder Off Road tires on it. The County Sheriff asked for volunteers to deliver vital prescriptions and O2 bottles and masks and such to ailing people isolated out on the country. So we spent a day doing so. It was quite and adventure.

          It was not like we could just drive up to their place to make the deliver in most cases. We would go until we came up against drift so high the FJ could not negotiate it and struggle on by foot from there.

          We also rescued three Great Danes that were outside in a fenced in back yard where the owner who was away from home could not get to them. Now that was a task getting those dogs over the fence and then handling them on foot the 1/4 mile back to where the FJ was and then cramming us and them into that small jeep like vehicle.

    2. Michael Peinsipp

      AND only ONE weathercaster got it correct – Chuck Taylor!!!
      He became THE forecaster everybody listen to from than on!!!

  2. Ric Werme

    The 70’s shortages included the Arab Oil Embargo (not climate change) and the Ohio River freezing over preventing coal barges from delivering it to power plants (not climate change, just late 1970s perversity).

    1. Michael Peinsipp

      That was the freeze/blizzard of what we call 1978! I lived there and it was COOL as hell!

    2. Mark Young

      I remember that blizzard well. We were out of school for weeks. Hellish sledding here in Cincinnati.

  3. RoHa

    A cold winter shouldn’t be a problem with all that gas coming through the Nordstream pipeline.



    1. Michael Peinsipp

      And the pipeline and WELLS Biden shut down by FIAT!
      I got wood and lots of it so FREEZE City Slickers…HAHAHAHAHAAHa

  4. Mercury

    We’ve heard a lot of talk about algorithms, primarily for use in censoring non-leftist opinions on social media. However, is anyone developing algorithms or using artificial intelligence in the way Joe Bastardi uses natural intelligence, that is, looking at past weather patterns to get better insight into current weather patterns?

    1. Michael Peinsipp

      Nope…they just keep changing the timeline into the future.

  5. Luigi

    Do not worry: the homogenisation algorithms will provide for turning any cold into hot increasing temperature trend as the narrative needs. The the press will state that it is cold because it is hot, mention a couple of cherrypicked exceptions and we’re done: the chicken is served again.

  6. Richard Greene

    Bastardi’s 2022 US hurricane forecast was complete nonsense — not even close to reality. So why should we believe his weather forecasts?

    1. rah

      Joe correctly forecasted the polar blast that hit Texas nearly 3 weeks before it hit. None of the models started picking it up until a few days before.

      As for Hurricane forecasts? He has been right more times than wrong and BTW you could say the exact same thing about NOAA NHC since they aren’t even in the same league as Bastardi. A blind folded monkey throwing darts at a board would be better than NOAA forecasts for hurricane seasons.

      And now that we’re on the subject of Hurricanes.
      The global ACE is 74% of “normal” and even the N. Atlantic basin is only at 96% of normal.

      And Tornadoes are at about the 20th percentile this year.

      So why would anyone believe anyone that has ever said that human caused climate change will cause more severe weather?

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