Risk of a “spectacular cold outbreak “…have countries let their guard down?
In his most recent Weatherbell Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks ahead at the winter weather over the coming weeks across the globe.
What definitely distinguishes Joe from forecasters I follow here in Germany is that he doesn’t rely solely on the so-called ensemble models to make his longer term forecasts, but goes way back into the archives and searches for similar patterns that took place even decades ago (analogues) in order to better discern which way the weather is likely to turn in the weeks ahead.
German forecasters like here , here and here like to put out videos once or even twice daily to report on what the many model ensembles are showing, which is something no one really needs a meteorological license to do. Too often you hear these weather pundits suddenly change their 7+ day forecast, in lockstep with whatever the latest ensemble run crunches out. Yet, most of us know that such forecasts are only valid until the next ensemble run because 7 days out the models can and often make U-turns.
“Very concerned” about coming cold
In Joe’s latest forecast, he again makes use of analogue years to forecast weeks ahead. I recall a forecast he made some 2 weeks ago warning that early December likely will turn cold in Europe – long before anyone else – basing it on weather patterns seen over past decades. Lo and behold, now the models are finally seeing wintry weather for next weekend.
In his latest forecast, Joe has become “very concerned” about the coming cold, which is going to be a real problem for not only people in the US, but around the globe.
“Mark my word, if this kind of cold shows up, that we’ve been setting up since the end of summer, and it looks like it at least has merit to consider, there’s going to be a blaming on climate change because of the blocking that caused it.”
Joe worries that many countries aren’t going to have sufficient energy to meet the forecast cold challenges, something politically inexcusable in 2022 with all our modern technology.
The kind of cold and blocking pattern ahead Joe is referring to is something the globe also saw/recorded decades ago and it’s not going to be anything new should it come to past.
Joe shows charts that point to what he says “could be a spectacular outbreak of cold”. Only now are the models showing what Joe had warned of weeks and months ago: northern hemisphere land masses getting gripped by sub-normal cold:
Source: Cropped from Weatherbell
“That’s wild. That’s something we saw back in the 1970s,” Joe notes.
The 1970s also saw energy shortages, and with similar weather patterns. You’d think our leaders would have learned something from all of it. Unfortunately not. Once again a number of countries risk energy shortages this winter.
Of course no forecast is ever certain. But over the years, Joe has often beat the long term forecasts (14+ days out) made by the national weather offices. Goes to show we can learn a lot from weather history.