New Study: Achieving A ‘Net Zero’ Emissions Policy Would Have A ‘Negligible’ 0.28°C Climate Effect

Cost-benefit analyses affirm it would be better to abandon Net Zero policy initiatives and instead “do nothing” about greenhouse gas emissions.

New research finds CO2’s largest possible climate impact is “negligible.” The cumulative expected temperature change in doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm is only 0.81°C at most, and this is “certainly not cause for alarm or for declaring a climate emergency”.

As Figure 1 from the paper shows, the temperature effects of increasing CO2 are strongest when concentrations hover below 100 ppm. After that the CO2 impact collapses logarithmically to less than 0.05°C even as concentrations rise to 900 ppm.

Using heat transfer calculations, it is estimated that even if governments across the world were to actually achieve all of their proposed Net Zero policy goals it would only elicit a 0.28°C reduction in global temperature. In other words, it would have “no measurable effect” on climate.

The tens of trillions in costs to achieve an inconsequential global temperature reduction would be much better spent on policies that would actually improve the economic, health, and educational conditions of those living in poverty.

Image Source: Simpson, 2024