The 2013-2022 warming trend and the extreme warmth in 2023 were “not associated with” declining outgoing longwave radiation induced by rising greenhouse gases.
Instead, a new study published in the journal Science contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR, or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W/m²/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively), explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth’s surface, warming it.)
A rising trend in anthropogenic greenhouse gases was supposed to reduce the Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and a declining OLR was thought to be the driver of modern warming.
Instead, the opposite has occurred. There has been an increasing OLR trend since 2013.
This enhancement of the Earth’s OLR trend actually serves to counteract the ASR-induced warming strongly associated with the aforementioned declining cloud cover albedo.
In other words, the total greenhouse effect impact from rising greenhouse gases has recently been contributing to a reduction in global warming, partially offsetting the warming induced by rising ASR.
“The EEI trend and 2023 peak are not associated with decreasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as one would expect from increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the absence of shortwave feedbacks. Instead, OLR has been increasing and largely offsetting even stronger absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomalies, consistent with climate models. The decadal 2013–2022 trend in ASR amounts to +1.10 W/m²/dec−1 in CERES and +0.97 W/m²/dec−1 in ERA5, reaching astonishing anomalies of +1.82 W/m² in CERES and +1.31 W/m² in ERA5 in 2023. Variations of incident solar radiation (ISR), including by the 11-year solar cycle, are an order of magnitude smaller, implying that reduced planetary albedo is the dominant cause. It is however striking that, according to CERES, ISR attained a positive anomaly in 2023 of +0.28 W/m², well above the previous solar-cycle maximum, whereas ERA5 forcing still assumed a negative anomaly of -0.08 W/m².”
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[…] are sufficient to account for modern temperature trends. This was backed up a few weeks ago by a new study entitled: ‘Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo’ […]
troposphere’s water vapor zone controls the earth’s temperature
Climate scientists failed to visualize the water vapor (gas) zone of the troposphere that controls the earth’s surface air temperature. This water vapor zone is the distance from the surface to the elevation of the freezing point of water, 0oC. The troposphere’s cooling gradient at the equator is 6.5 oC per Km . With a surface temperature of 20 oC, the freezing point is reached at an elevation of 2.3 km (10,000 ft.) , This freezing point elevation drops with an increase in latitude and falls to near zero at the Polar Zones. The water vapor zone gas concentration can be as high as 4.0%. The other three gases, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane total 0.044%.
With the effect of greenhouse gases being cumulative, the magnitude of water vapor greenhouse effect at the equator is so large that the effect of the other greenhouse gases do not have a significant effect. As the water vapor zone decreases with an increase in latitude, the proportion of the other greenhouse gases increase, reaching their maximum effect at the polar zones where the water vapor is at its minimum. The greenhouse gases serve as an insulating blanket, reducing the cooling rate of the earth’s surface. For practical purpose, the water vapor zone is the blanket.
The H2O molecule and its three phases create the troposphere that produce the earth’s surface weather conditions that support life. If you assume that there is no water, there is no troposphere. The earth’s radiant heating and cooling are unchecked, producing extremely high and low surface temperatures unsuitable for life.
Concerning global warming, the question is what can humans do that would significantly affect the water vapor zone, the zone that controls the earths’ temperature?
Delbert Lipps, B.S. Chemical Engineer
01/02/2025