Ice shelf collapse was much more pronounced and exceptional millennia ago than it has been over the last 47 years.
The advent of post-1970s “climate change” and polar amplification due to the rapidly rising trend in human greenhouse gas emissions was supposed to unleash catastrophic ice calving losses and increases in iceberg size throughout the Earth’s cryosphere.
But a new analysis (MacKie et al., 2024) indicates the size of Antarctic icebergs breaking off from the ice sheet has, contrary to popular assumption, slightly declined since 1976. Calving events in recent decades therefore cannot even be conclusively attributed to climate change. Instead, they are representative of what occurs naturally.
“…our results reveal that extreme calving events should not automatically be interpreted as a sign of ice shelf instability, but are instead representative of the natural cycle of calving front advance and retreat.”
Over the last 47 years (1976-2023) calving events peaked during the period from 1986 to 2000. Even so, the largest of the modern icebergs calved from Antarctica’s coastal ice shelves were still four times smaller than what would occur with an exceptional, once-a-century calving event.
So even the presumably large calving losses in recent decades that were thought to have been extreme and unparalleled (i.e., the 2017 Larsen C 5,800 km² iceberg) could not even reach statistical significance in terms of their exceptionality. It would take and iceberg about 40,000 km² in size to be classified as an exceptional, once-a-century calving event.
“…extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.”
Not only has there been no sign of ice shelf instability with the “unexceptional” modern changes, but paleoclimate studies indicate there were periods of ice shelf collapse throughout the Holocene that were much more pronounced than anything occurring in recent decades.
“Notably, paleoclimate studies suggest that significant ice shelf collapse, on a scale greater than the maximum observed sizes in our data set, has already occurred during the Holocene.”
Succinctly, there is nothing even remotely unusual about the calving events occurring across Antarctica today.
[…] From NoTrickZone’ […]
[…] K. Richard, Dec 26, 2024 in […]
I have made a dozen comments over the past 16 years on sites such as this, that natural phenomena do not always have a normal or Gaussian distribution. This is one of the few efforts that has that in mind. Happy to see it.
“… than what would occur with an exceptional, once-a-century calving event. . . . . It would take and iceberg about 40,000 km² in size to be classified as an exceptional, once-a-century calving event.”
The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model is a statistical model used to analyze the distribution of extreme values, combining three types of distributions: Gumbel, Fréchet, and Weibull. Etc.
Most of us don’t make it that far in classes of Statistics.
I would like to know if any recorded warming or cooling were found to be occurring on other planets in our solar system or isolated to Earth’s climate.
My understanding is that Mars has warmed in a similar time frame as earth.One of the most interesting theories put forth is that cosmic energy is a big driver of climate and the sun’s heliosphere, which deflects cosmic energy from entering the inner solar system, is dynamic, and retreats and expands at cyclic intervals.
When the heliosphere shrinks, its protective shield weakens and allows more cosmic energy to reach earth and Mars. Cosmic energy heats silicious magma, driving volcanic activity, 90% of which is under water in the oceans. So most of the warming on earth is from an increase in cosmic energy which heats planets from within. There are many feedback mechanisms that balance and moderate this effect. I don’t think we’ve even discovered them all.
But the one obvious balancing mechanism is the great volcanic explosions, that occur during heliosphere minimums, which put great
amounts of ash and sulfer into the higher atmosphere and cause cooling effects that can last for years. Some scientists say a grand solar minimum (cooling events) is overdue.
https://tkp-at.translate.goog/2024/12/12/sturm-zerstoert-wind-und-solarfarm/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
https://www-agrarheute-com.translate.goog/energie/strom/windraeder-verbrauchen-sehr-viel-mineraloel-wahrheit-fake-news-630112?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
https://www-bild-de.translate.goog/regional/muenchen/muenchens-prestige-radweg-breiter-als-die-strasse-nebenan-675f24ea15f99f7a780dc27f?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
State: “It rains”
Green: “And it is warm. That must be the climate change!”
https://i.ibb.co/pZv9W0J/acid-rain.jpg
[…] last, but, not least, No Tricks Zone has New Study Finds 1970s-Present Antarctic Ice Loss Is ‘Unexceptional’ And Not Due To […]
I’ve read that one of the greatest volcanic explosions in history occurred sometime around 2012-14.
It was 15,000′ under the artic ocean on the mid-ocean ridge. Geologists determined that it blew magma up further than was thought possible under that much water pressure. I believe that was during a period of solar minimum. It was also a time of great artic ice melting and increased Antarctic geothermic activity. Naysayers say that one volcano could not significantly heat the large volume of water that is in the artic ocean to have an effect on surface ice. And they would be right if it is assumed that this was just an average volcanic eruption. But the main thing they don’t take into account is that the entire several thousand mile mid-ocean ridge was erupting at the same
time, as evidenced by earthquake swarms over that whole area that lasted for years.
Underwater geothermal heating is a primary driver of climate.