Japanese Scientist: The IPCC’s Climate Models Are Fundamentally Flawed, Use False Assumptions

By Kyoji Kimoto  

Fig.1 below is an energy budget of the earth having an atmospheric window.

In this case, OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) is expressed as follows.:OLR= Fw (function of Ts, 17%) + Fu (function of Tu, 83%)

Ts –  surface temperature,

Tu –  upper troposphere temperature

Therefore, Tu increases as much as ~1C to restore the decreased OLR as much as 4(W/m²) at the tropopause with a CO2 doubling.

Fig.1. Energy budget of the earth (adapted from Fig.4.1 in Dorland, R.V., de Jager, dr. C., Versteegh, G.J.M., 2006. KNMI Report 50010200, 99-101)

 In contrast, climate models were developed by Manabe, Hansen, Cess and Schlesinger using the energy budget of the earth by Fig. 2 having no atmospheric window.

Fig.2. Energy budget of the Earth by Ramanathan (1987)

Therefore 40 climate models participated in CMIP6 have no atmospheric window as shown by Fig. 3. In this case, surface temperature Ts increases as much as ~1C to restore the decreased OLR as much as 4(W/m²) at the tropopause with CO2 doubling.

Fig. 3: Wild (2020) CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)

Fig. 3 All sky was adapted in the following reference: Martin Wild, Climate Dynamics (2020) 55:553-577.

Conclusion

There is no theoretical basis for the Net Zero policy based on the man-made climate change narrative of the IPCC. It comes from the lack in knowledge of the atmospheric window of the energy budget of the earth by modelers.

Theoretically speaking, OLR is treated as one variable function as OLR= function (Ts) in climate models while in reality it is two variable function as OLR= function (Ts, Tu).

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