Because the current state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate the trends and variances in global precipitation over the last 84 years (1940-2023), their usefulness should be reconsidered.
Hydrological processes – ocean circulation, water vapor, clouds – are key components of climate, easily overshadowing the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by a factor of 2,100 (Koutsoyiannis, 2021).
The effect that cloud cover variability has on surface temperature is so uncertain, and our cloud-effect measurement capacities are so primitive, even NASA has had to admit that “today’s models must be improved by about a hundredfold in accuracy” to even begin to attribute current or future temperature changes to increases in atmospheric CO2.
Image Source: NASA.gov
In that vein, a new paper published by Dr. Koutsoyiannis, a hydrologist, statistically assesses the utility of today’s climate models. He documents the general circulation models’ capacity to simulate trends and variability in global (hemispheric) precipitation since 1940.
The results are not encouraging. The best computer models we have cannot accurately simulate what occurs in the real world.
“It turns out that the precipitation simulated by the climate models does not agree with reality on the annual scale…”
When the models are tuned to assess what happens at a continental scale, their performance plunges from poor to worse. These modeling failures cast doubt on whether GCMs are even worth using at all.
“[W]hen the areal scale is decreased from hemispheric to continental, i.e., when Europe is examined, the model performance is poor even at large time scales.”
“Therefore, the usefulness of climate model results for hydrological purposes is doubtful.”
I fear there is more under the sky than models:
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/global-famine-is-literally-inevitable
Ehrlich was spouting the same type of nonsense 50 years ago; by 1980 we were all supposed to have moved inland due to the smell of rotting fish at the coast.
The michaeltsnyder article claims land is getting drier. Yet we are told that a warming atmosphere will produce more rain. He claims the western USA is getting drier, yet all California reservoirs are above average water and getting more.
His info comes from the United Nations and therein lies the problem.
The critique of Global models is appreciated. Thanks KR.
The GHE is pseudo-science as is AGW which follows from it. Progress proceeds one funeral at a time. Hopefully the AGW grift will die before I do, but I’m already 78.
[…] by K. Richard, Feb 11, 2025 in NoTricksZone […]
thank you
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Beautiful article, Thanks
GTU
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