“Based on the historical fire-scar record, NAFSN [North American tree-ring fire-scar network] sites collectively would be expected to have burned 4346 times from 1984–2022, yet they burned 989 times, or only 23% of what would be expected under the historical fire regime.” — Parks et al., 2025
According to the prevailing alarmist narrative, the recent decades of “unprecedented” warming across North America was supposed to have been the driver of the continent’s contemporary “record-breaking” fires and burned area.
However, a new study using tree ring fire-scar records dating to the “historical period” of 1600-1880 has determined these colder Little Ice Age centuries had far higher burn rates than recent decades.
“Many studies have reported increases in area burned associated with a warming climate over the last few decades across much of North America. Our evidence indicates that, even under a warming climate, the rate at which NAFSN sites burned in recent decades has been much lower than historical rates [1600-1880] across most of the continent.”
“Our study of 1851 tree-ring fire-scar sites and contemporary fire perimeters across the United States and Canada reveals a substantial, persistent fire deficit from 1984-2022 in many forest and woodland ecosystems, despite recent increases in burning. Contemporary fire occurrence is still far below historical (1600-1880) levels at NAFSN sites despite multiple large and ‘record-breaking’ recent fire years, such as 2020 in the western United States.”
Astonishingly, the non-fire years at the 1,851 tree-ring fire-scar sites were more than one hundred times less frequent during the Little Ice Age centuries (1600-1880) than in the last four decades.
“The prevalence of non-fire years at the NAFSN sites in the contemporary time period [1984-2022] was >100 times more prevalent compared to the historical period…”
Overall, the North American tree-ring fire-scar record indicates the historical (1600-1880) period’s burn rate was more than four times greater than it was from 1984-2022, as modern fire burning was “only 23% of what would be expected under the historical fire regime.”
[…] From NoTrickZone […]