By P Gosselin on 25. June 2025
A recent paper explains how a weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could actually reduce Arctic warming by the end of the century…
…despite the overall trend of Arctic amplification (“the disproportionate warming of the Arctic compared to the global average.”)
Symbol image. Source: NASA
The study shows that a weakening AMOC can partially counteract Arctic amplification, leading to a less severe warming trend in the Arctic, especially in the cold months and near the North Atlantic.
The authors claim a weaker AMOC leads to less sea ice melting, which means the Arctic surface remains brighter (higher albedo), reflecting more sunlight and causing less warming.
Moreover, a slowdown in AMOC causes the ocean to absorb more heat, leading to cooler surface temperature and can also lead to more cooling from the surface up to the mid-troposphere in the Arctic.
The weaker AMOC also increases low-level clouds over the “North Atlantic warming hole,” causing significant localized cooling by reflecting sunlight.
In essence, while Arctic amplification is a major concern, this research suggests that a weakening AMOC could unexpectedly slow down some of that warming through a complex interplay of ice, ocean, and atmospheric changes.
Not warming everywhere
Some areas have been experiencing or are forecast to experience colder than normal temperatures around June 2025:
- North Atlantic Ocean, south of Greenland (North Atlantic Warming Hole): This region has been a persistent “cold spot” defying global warming.
- Eastern Europe: Specifically from eastern Italy and the Balkans to Finland, below-average temperatures were noted in May 2025.
- India: Experienced below-average temperatures in May 2025.
- Alaska: Monthly temperatures are favored to be below-normal for June 2025.
- Southern Africa: Saw below-average temperatures in May 2025.
- Eastern Antarctica: Also experienced negative temperature anomalies in May 2025.
- Hudson Bay: Negative anomalies were recorded in this region in May 2025.
- Ukraine (Western parts): Late spring cold spells impacted rapeseed yields in the west.
- Parts of the Southern and Central Great Plains (USA): this specific area has equal chances for warm, cool, or near-average conditions.
- Maritimes (Canada): Forecast to have cooler-than-normal temperatures for the summer of 2025.
It’s important to note that global temperatures are generally trending upwards, and even in record-warm years, there can be regional variations and areas experiencing colder-than-normal conditions due to complex atmospheric and oceanic patterns.
Posted in Arctic |
Covering all bases.
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It should be noted that “Arctic Amplification” is not what it is cracked up to be.
1. Arctic Amplification is an artifact of Temperature Anomalies
2. Arctic Surface Stations Records Show Ordinary Warming
3, Arctic Warmth Comes from Meridional Heat Transport, not CO2
https://rclutz.com/2023/08/19/arctic-amplication-not-what-you-think/