No global warming this year, and likely next year as well
The NASA/GMAO ENSO forecasts remain consistent with the August 2025 forecasts, with La Niña conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific in the relevant Nino region 3.4 in the NH summer of 2025.
Hat-tip: Snow Fan
Source: NASA/GMAO ENSO forecasts
Alarmists will likely shift their focus to the coming hurricane season, or whatever hot days occurring around the globe – or maybe this coming September’s Arctic sea ice extent (if it melts enough).
Wrong. ENSO has been stuck in neutral for 2 years according to the Climate Prediction Centre (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml). In order to declare either El Nino or La Nina all criteria must be met. Otherwise it’s a matter of the factors hovering around the mean. ENSO as only been studied since 1950 but the criteria for declaring either condition is cut&dried. The current neutral conditions are unprecedented in time; where neutral conditions are generally short periods.
[…] “La Niña Continues – Globe To Keep Cooling For Another Year” – There’s no global warming this year, and likely next year as well amid a cooling La Niña period, says Pierre Gosselin on the No Tricks Zone. […]
Thermodynamics should put all this GHG chat to sleep. Nothing so small can have such an overwhelming effect. Yet this is what’s claimed. Are there any studies that focus on this?
Just in the historical period Earth has passed through 5 major changes in climate. They are: RWP (Roman Warming Period) from ~400BC – 450AD; DAC (Dark Age Cooling) from ~ 450AD – 1000AD; MWP (Medieval Warm Period) from ~1000AD – 1300AD; LIA (Little Ice Age) from ~1300AD – 1850AD; and now were in a new warming period that has been misnamed as anthropogenic warming.
It’s commonly argued that those past warming and cooling periods were local in nature. This study ( https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.html) examined multiple proxies from the whole of the northern hemisphere. One of the most widely cited studies is the Loehle reconstruction (http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/GlobalTempResc.pdf) based on multiple proxies representing the whole world. Together they prove that past temperature variation was global and on the order of centuries each.
The notion of isolated variation v global takes another hit if we just think about it. Right now we observe that mild local temperature swings have repercussions over a wider area. It’s ridiculous to contend that high and low temperatures could persist over an entire continent for centuries and leave no trace in global weather.
All agree that the LIA ended ~1850. Regardless of human activity temperatures have had to increase just as they did for the RWP and MWP. It’s been ~170 years into this warm period and temperatures have risen ~1C. That’s less than either of the previous warm periods.
Physics:
Gases heat up only by mechanical transfer ( https://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation), meaning heat transfer by contact. If Molecule-A absorbs an IR photon then the energy state of Molecule-A is raised and we measure that as heat. Heat causes increased vibration (Brownian motion) and that heat is passed to surrounding molecules. Within 1 second sufficient energy has been passed to other molecules such that Molecule-A can no longer maintain it’s higher energy state. It then releases a photon and returns to a resting state. But energy has been lost through contact and so the released photon is less energetic than the 15um that was absorbed (16um or longer).
The IR spectrum of wavelengths runs from 100um to 1um (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_spectrum), such that 1um is the most energetic IR with the shortest wavelength. CO2 is opaque to IR at only 3 peak wavelengths: 2.7, 4.3, and 15um.
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.meteo3/files/images/lesson5/absorptivity_ir_window.png
Keep that image open, we’ll need it later Note that each peak has slopes indicating that there is reduced absorption at those bands, where some photons are absorbed while others are not. As we move down the slope fewer are absorbed. All other IR passes through the molecule.
Solid matter, like the ground of Earth is opaque to all IR wavelengths, and like every molecule the ground radiates IR at all wavelengths up to the wavelength limited by its temperature. That’s Wein’s Law(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wien%27s_displacement_law). In order for the Earth to radiate IR at the 15um band to which CO2 is opaque we need a temperature of -80C. The entire surface of the Earth is above that temperature and so the entire Earth radiates IR at 15um and all the way up to 10um in the hottest places.
The concern of AGW proponents is the effect of radiation upon the most common GHG which is water vapour (WV). According to AGW theory, the tiny increase in radiated IR induced by CO2 acts as a forcing on WV. WV is opaque to a huge range of IR and is by far the only GHG that has ever made a difference in temperature. You may have read that without WV Earth would be a snowball. Go back to the image to see that the absorption bands of CO2 and WV do overlap but do not overlap where both show the strongest absorption (opacity). CO2 is weakly opaque to 12um IR, meaning that most of the photons pass through and only a few are absorbed. Should our Molecule-A absorb 12um IR then when it re-radiates 1 second later that photon will be less energetic, approaching the 15um to which CO2 is opaque and to which WV is less opaque.
CO2 makes up only 0.04% of the atmosphere. WV makes up 1-4% depending on humidity. Even in the driest of places WV is 250x that of CO2. So, AGW theory tells us that the reduced absorption by CO2 at 12um will re-radiate so much 13-15um IR that it will cause noticeable and detectable warming of the WV.
So, CO2 does interact strongly at 15um, but WV does not. Where they do overlap is at longer wavelengths, but neither show strong IR interaction at those wavelengths. Re-radiated IR will be absorbed by the Earth but we’re talking about very long wavelengths that are produced at very cold temperatures.
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What’s up, just wanted to mention, I enjoyed thhis post.
It was helpful. Keep oon posting!