More evidence is unleashed undermining the CO2-drives-climate narrative.
A comprehensive correlation analysis (Grabyan, 2025) utilizing the last 2000 years of temperature and CO2 data affirms CO2 changes lag temperature changes by ~150 years throughout the 1 to 1850 C.E. era.
This Common Era (C.E.) lead-lag sequencing – with temperature changes leading and CO2 changes lagging by centuries to millennia – is wholly consistent with the paleo CO2 and temperature proxy (ice core, stomata, borehole, etc.) record spanning the last 20,000 years (Demezhko and Gornostaeva, 2014), 400,000 years (Fischer et al., 1999, Mudelsee et al., 2001, Monnin et al., 2001, Uemura et al., 2018), 66 million years (Frank, 2024), and 420 million years (Koutsoyiannis, 2024).
It is notable that the CO2 changes can be shown to be driven by temperature changes over not only the long-term (centuries), but over short-term periods (months, years) as well (Koutsoyiannis et al., 2023, Humlum et al., 2013).
Image Source: Grabyan, 2025
The correlational analyses also reveal changes in temperature may be driven by variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) – especially when using TSI data sets that are not preferred by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Other TSI-temperature correlation studies have drawn the same conclusions (Soon et al., 2015, Yndestad and Solheim, 2017, Scafetta, 2023)
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Has tense been correctly applied? Should it be ‘CO2 Has Not Preceded Temperature, Nor Did It Control Temperature [Until About 1850]’?
The paper does not question that there is a relationship between atmospheric CO2 and global temperature. Indeed it makes clear that there is a relationship between the two. It might well be that temperature led at CO2 at less than 290ppm [the maximum seen in the period shown up to around 1850], but we’re now at about 420ppm. That would seem to be a considerable excursion from the norm. Can variability in solar radiation account for that?