The Wind Energy Paradox: “Why More Wind Turbines Don’t Always Mean More Power”

The Munich-based daily Merkur is finally reporting on something that sus keptics have been pointing out some 20 years: Wind turbines always either produce too little or too much, and are thus uneconomical and unreliable.

Image: Vernunftkraft.de

In a recent insightful interview with Merkur.de, Prof. Dr. Sigismund Kobe, a renowned physicist from the TU Dresden, explains a phenomenon he calls the “Transition to Renewable Energy Paradox.”

His warning is clear: adding more wind power to the grid might soon yield diminishing returns—or none at all.

Zero times two is still zero

The fundamental problem, according to Prof. Kobe, lies in the nature of weather-dependent energy. Wind power does not scale linearly in a way that guarantees supply. During a lull, when there is no wind, it doesn’t matter if you have 30,000 or 60,000 turbines. The output remains zero. Doubling the capacity does nothing to solve the problem of “Dunkelflaute” (dark doldrums).

Conversely, under windy weather, the existing turbines often produce much more electricity than the grid can handle. Adding even more turbines during these periods only increases the surplus that cannot be used, leading to forced shutdowns.

Building “useless” capacity

Kobe argues that Germany is rapidly approaching a “saturation point.” Data shows that while the installed capacity (the theoretical maximum) of wind power has grown significantly, the actual amount of electricity fed into the grid hasn’t kept pace.

We are essentially building “useless” capacity that only produces power when we already have too much of it, while failing to provide any power when we actually need it.

Economic fallout: paying for nothing

This paradox isn’t just a physical problem; it’s an expensive economic one.

1. Redispatch Costs: When the grid is overloaded, grid operators must pay wind farm owners to turn their turbines off. Consumers end up paying for electricity that was never produced.

2. Double Infrastructure: Because wind is unreliable, Germany must maintain a completely separate fleet of “backup” power plants (mostly gas-fired) to jump in when the wind stops. This means paying for two parallel energy systems.

Can Storage Save Us?

The standard counter-argument is that we simply need better batteries or hydrogen storage. However, Prof. Kobe remains skeptical. He points out that the sheer scale of storage required to bridge weeks of low wind is technically and financially astronomical. The efficiency losses involved in converting electricity to hydrogen and back again make the resulting power incredibly expensive.

Prof. Kobe’s message is a reality check for policymakers. He argues that the current strategy of simply “expanding at all costs” is hitting a physical wall. Without a breakthrough in massive, affordable storage, adding more wind turbines won’t stabilize the grid—it might just make it more volatile and expensive.

Prof. em. Dr. rer. nat. habil. Sigismund Kobe is a distinguished German physicist and a long-standing academic at the Technical University of Dresden (TU Dresden). Born in 1940, he has dedicated his career to theoretical physics, with a specific focus on the behavior of complex systems.

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