Global warming was significantly more pronounced in the early 20th century and prior to 1940, or back when CO2 emissions rates were 8.6 times lower than they were from 1983-2024.
A new study using 60 million daily maximum/minimum temperatures from 1600 global weather stations across 29 countries indicates the globe warmed at a rate of 0.022°C/yr from 1899-1940, a 42-year period when cumulative CO2 emissions only amounted to 139.6 GtC.
Then, over the next 42 years (1941-1982), global temperatures cooled at a rate of -0.011°C/yr even though cumulative CO2 emissions rose to 460.0 GtC. In other words, CO2 emission rates more than tripled from the 1940s to 1980s as global temperatures declined.
Global warming returned by the 1980s. However, over the next 42 years (1983-2024) the warming rate, 0.017°C/yr, was not as strong as it was in the early 20th century. This slower rate of warming is significant because cumulative CO2 emissions were 1,209.8 GtC during this most recent period, an amount 8.6 times higher than they were from 1899-1940.
So over the last 125 years of “global warming,” at no time has there been a decadal period of warming (or cooling) that could be shown to have closely aligned with the varying rates of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
“These findings challenge the conventional assumption that human-induced CO2 is the primary driver of global warming.”
I’ve often wondered when I watch films of the 1920s and 1930s how many of the cars and charabancs have foldable roofs.
The weather in the UK and Europe must have been conducive to such an invention.
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“These findings challenge the conventional assumption …”
No one has ever accused me of being conventional.
I do like the phrase “conventional assumption” better than “a 97% consensus”.
If the little arithmetic quizzes get any harder, I know people that won’t get a comment published.
A brief note on data transparency: all datasets used in this study are fully publicly available. The daily temperature data for more than 120 years is from NOAA [Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) daily dataset]; CO2 emission data is from Our World in Data. The urban built-up area data is from Earth Observation and population survey data.
As an author of this research, I welcome comments/criticisms and will be happy to address them.
Last but by no means the least, I thank the site owners (who I do not know) for highlighting this research.
This article seems to corroborate the cross-correlation analysis between CO2 concentration (Mauna Loa) and global temperatures (UAH) which shows a weak negative correlation (but not statistically significant) from CO2 concentration to global temps and conversely, a significant positive correlation from global temps to CO2 concentration.
Best whishes to all!
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