Winter across Europe has been on the mild side so far – just as predicted by global warming alarmists. But now the weather is about to turn cold.
A cold winter spell is beginning to settle over Europe and there’s a risk the public here might start having doubts about the global warming narrative – especially as heating bills skyrocket and gas reserves run out. Thus, let’s not be surprised if climate-alarm suspects soon rush out another dubious paper claiming that extreme winter cold, too, is a telltale sign of warming.
Just-so story science
This was the case earlier. For example in 2010, in the middle of a bitter cold winter, PIK scientists Petoukhov et al published a paper, “A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents” that found that sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe.
In 2019, Kornhuber et al published a paper, Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern that focused on summer heatwaves, This research tracks the “resonant amplification” of planetary waves that allegedly causes cold air to spill south and stay there for weeks.
PIK researchers, particularly Vladimir Petoukhov, suggest to have identified a specific non-linear relationship, and claim the atmosphere reacts most violently when sea ice concentration is around 40–80% in certain Arctic regions. When the ice disappears, the ocean releases a massive “bubble” of heat into the cold winter air, thus creating a local high-pressure system (an anti-cyclone) over the Arctic. This high-pressure system acts like a physical wall that pushes the Jet Stream south and forces cold, continental winds from Siberia to blow westward into Europe.
Stefan Rahmstorf and his team have also championed the theory, arguing that Arctic warming makes the “waves” in the Jet Stream grow much larger and to move much slower. So, you see warming also leads to unusual cold and harsh winter events across Europe”
As of January 2026, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the broader scientific community have been tracking a highly unusual set of Arctic signals they believe align with the “less ice = harsher winters” mechanism (AMOC slowing, Tipping Points Report in October 2025, and the Arctic Report Card 2025 released just weeks ago.)
According to the PIK, we are no longer looking at “future risks” but rather the live observation of a destabilized system where low ice is creating a “heat dome” over the pole and is forcing the Jet Stream into a “stuck” position, leading to the current cold snaps.
Just-so science: Giraffes have long necks to reach high leaves. Image generated by Grok AI.
While the climate scientitsts insist this is well-grounded climate science, skeptics see it for what it really is: a “just-so story” filled with pseudo-profound bullshit and science sophistry. It sounds perfectly logical and satisfying (e.g., giraffes have long necks to reach high leaves), but it lacks empirical evidence to prove it’s actually how things happen.
Happy New Year everyone!
I’ve noticed a pattern. In the Northern Hemisphere, June/July/August generally have high temperatures. Then Nov/Dec/Jan have colder temperatures. The warming has led to colding for my entire life, and before me. The best strategy is to count on this continuing. Funding for the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research can be discontinued.
Excellent observation!
They need paper, because it is cold now.
[…] From No Trick Zone […]
Yes Potsdam (PIK) has form for bogus climate studies. The previous one was last September claiming an economic apocalypse to be caused by climate change.
Critics of climate policy have long pointed to the problematic dominance of politics in climate science. A recent study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which systematically exaggerated the economic consequences of climate change, has reignited the debate over scientific standards and political manipulation in the field.
On April 17, 2024, the science journal Nature published a study by PIK researchers Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann, and Leonie Wenz. They calculated that global GDP would shrink by 19% by 2050 due to climate change, regardless whether future emissions were reduced. This projection corresponds to an annual output loss of around $38 trillion — an economic apocalypse, given that no society has the resilience to absorb such a dramatic collapse.
https://rclutz.com/2025/09/01/noble-climate-cause-corruption-pik-exemplar/
I would like to know the physical bases by which one can infere that an homogeneous heat increase in the atmosphere (due to human CO2 emissions according to the climate doxa) can induce cold snaps.
as far as I know, there is no thermodynamics principle or law which could be used for that purpose.
Those who claim that an homogeneous growth of heat in a medium can induce cold snaps in this medium should be treated as those who claim the perpetual motion machine exists :
– as charlatans.
Petit Barde, none other than Michael Mann is behind the claim that the AMOC will slow down and the NH will go cold as a result. It’s bogus of course, if you bother to exam the argument.
https://rclutz.com/2024/10/30/manns-amoc-collapse-hoax/