Warming across Germany in the last 3 decades can be explained by declining cloud and aerosol albedo and consequent rising solar radiation. Not CO2.
Another new study affirms clouds and aerosols play a key role in explaining trends in solar surface radiation (SSR), which is “essential for the global energy cycle driving the climate system.”
Over Germany, five independent observational datasets all agree that SSR increased by 4 W/m² per decade (~10 W/m²) from 1995-2020.
A 4 W/m² per decade increase in SSR easily explains recent warming. It especially explains warming far better than the alleged 20-times smaller clear-sky-only CO2 impact (0.2 W/m² per decade) over this span.
Image Source: Pfeifroth et al., 2026
Supporting this new research, a 2024 study (Wacker et al.) utilizing a German “testbed site” reports total and direct shortwave (SW) radiation forcing rose by 3.5 and 9.3 W/m² per decade, respectively, from 1996-2021.
[…] From No Trick Zone […]
[…] From the NoTricksZone […]
the majority of global warming since 1975 is at night which is not affected by
the reduction of air pollution
a reduction in the percentage of cloudiness would cause warming during the day and cooling at night. the percentage of cloudiness is only a proxy for what we really want to know which is how much heat clouds block or trap. the small reduction in percentage of cloudiness since 1980 is much smaller than the margin of error in the measurements is statistically insignificant.
people who claim CO2 is not the most important cause of nighttime warming or science deniers
“people who claim CO2 is not the most important cause of nighttime warming or science deniers”
Not sure what you mean, but anyway…
As is well known, we model clouds very poorly. It is only to be expected that any improvement in how clouds are understood to affect the planet will be attacked in such a clumsy manner by a useful idiot from somewhere if it suggests CO2 is not the Control Knob of global climate.
Overall, clouds have a cooling effect, exhibiting a negative CRI (https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/2021/04/28/clouds-and-global-warming/). Fewer clouds therefore mean more energy in the system. The rise in average nighttime temperatures is due to the location of most weather stations: in cities, the UHI is particularly strong at night. This rules out “more CO2” as the cause.
Conversely, what’s the expected response of photosynthesis and thus CO2 levels of 3% extra solar radiation?
Which is the chicken (temperature?) and which the egg(CO2?)
Put another way, cause and effect?
If we are enjoying a solar maximum, how does that sit with the cycle of ice ages ?
Each paper raises new questions, and our short history of global data helps inform the world Model of climate…
Have we yet got ice core data profiling temperature with synchronous CO2 values, to address the chicken and egg question?
To many that’s a imperative question.