“The trend of September Arctic sea ice extent for the most recent two decades 2005-2024 is -0.35 and -0.29 million km² per decade according to the NSIDC and OSISAF sea ice indices respectively…these trends are not statistically significant from zero at a 95% confidence level.” − England et al., 2025
Despite several peer-reviewed, “overly alarmist” predictions of sea-ice-free summers by 2020 published in the 2010s, there has been “no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005.”
It is not just in the annual monthly minimum (September) that sea ice losses have paused for the past two decades; the “current pause in Arctic sea ice is seen in every single month throughout the year.”
The lack of statistically significant sea ice decline is “robust across observational data sets, metrics, and seasons,” and the length of the pause is unprecedented the last 47 years of observations.
“[T]he 2005-2024 trend is the slowest rate of sea ice area loss over any 20-year period since the start of the satellite record.”
The paper’s polarbearsinternational.org press release details how “remarkable” it is that 2025 was the 13th year in a row (2012) in which there has not been a new record minimum. Last September (2025) was the 10th lowest September minimum in the 1979-present data.
Internal Variability Explains Trends
Arctic sea ice indeed did decline rapidly from about 1995 to 2005. However, the authors suggest internal variability (AMO, PDO) was “perhaps more” important than anthropogenic forcing in explaining this decade-long decrease.
“[I]nternal variability is at least as important, perhaps more, for explaining the steep decline during that period [1990s-2000s].”
The scientists assert internal climate variability can “totally counteract” human impacts, even driving sea ice growth in the coming decades.
The pause is expected to continue for “another five to 10 years.”
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It’s clear the Arctic sea ice doom merchants were not the experts they pretended to be.
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