New Study Finds Warming Saves Lives…Cold Temperatures 12 Times More Deadly Than Excess Heat

Because cold temperatures are so much more dangerous to human health than warmth, a modest 0.5°C warming could save over 10,000 lives per year in the US.

A new study indicates that from 2000 to 2020 there were 6,129 annual deaths attributable to excess summer heat across 1,514 US counties (representing 91% of the United States’ adult population).

Heat-related deaths receive the vast majority of media attention due primarily to the assumption that humans can control the temperature of the ocean and surface air by emitting more or less CO2.

However, the real health risk – even in wealthy countries like the US – is not “global warming,” but exposure to cold temperatures in winter.

This same study reveals there were 72,361 deaths per year attributable to exposure to 21st century cold temperatures in the US.

In other words, cold winter temperatures are associated with 12 times more deaths (40.1 deaths per 100,000 person-years) than deaths linked to excessive heat (3.4 deaths per 100,000 person-years).

Because the US has continued to have “extreme winter events” in the 21st century and “unusually cold winter snaps” in the South, the “cold related deaths in the US have increased by 9% per year over the past two decades.”

Non-optimal temperature-related deaths have been increasing, with cold non-optimal temperatures far more deadly.

Image Source: de Oliveira Salerno et al., 2026

Interestingly, a Google search using the data from this study and a hypothetical 0.5°C increase in mean annual US temperature indicates, per AI, that this modest warming could potentially save “several thousand to over 10,000 lives” per year.

Image Source: AI via Google