35 New Scientific Publications Confirm Ocean Cycles, Sun Are Main Climate Drivers

While news journalists and internet bloggers are busy headlining scary stories invoking the presumed causal link between anthropogenic CO2 emissions and floods and droughts and global warming, robust scientific evidence of naturally-forced climate change has continued to rapidly accumulate.

There is a claimed scientific “consensus” that climate changes in recent decades are only weakly influenced by natural factors, and instead anthropogenic emissions drive changes in precipitation patterns and temperature.  And yet scientists defiantly continue to publish papers in peer-reviewed journals that undermine this “consensus” opinion.

Variations in regional precipitation and temperature have long been determined to be strongly correlated with natural oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns, or oscillations. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity.

Below are summaries of key findings from 35 recently-published peer-reviewed scientific papers, divided into two categories.  The first collection of papers establishes that (a) decadal and multi-decadal ocean circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, NAO, ENSO) have significantly modulated precipitation and temperature changes in recent decades, and the second collection of papers confirm that (b) natural ocean oscillations are, in turn, modulated by solar activity.

Natural Ocean Oscillations Drive Climate

Chen et al., 2016

Multiscale evolution of surface air temperature in the arid region of Northwest China [ARNC] and its linkages to ocean oscillations 

Compared with the reconstructed interannual variation, the reconstructed interdecadal variability plays a decisive role in the ARNC [northwest China] warming and reveals the climatic pattern transformation from the cold period to the warm period before and after 1987. Additionally, there were also regional differences in the spatial patterns of change trend in the ARNC temperature at a given time. We also found that the AMO and PDO had significant impacts on the ARNC [northwest China] temperature fluctuation at an interdecadal scale

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Faust et al., 2016

A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation] as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. … The [NAO proxy record] shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends.

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Livsey et al., 2016

Spatial-temporal analysis of United States precipitation data from 1900 to 1999 indicates that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) primarily modulates drought frequency. Changes in the extended drought record correspond with timing of the Roman Climate Optimum, Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age … AMO modulated drought in southern Texas for the last 3000 years.

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Valdés-Manzanilla, 2016

Most of flood periods coincided with the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). … Logistic regression showed that AMO index was the most correlated index with flood events. In fact, the odds ratio showed that floods were 1.90 times more likely to occur when AMO index was positive.

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Yu et al., 2016

The interannual relationship between North American (NA) winter temperature and large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and its decadal variation are analyzed. … NA [North American] temperature is largely controlled by these three large-scale atmospheric patterns, i.e., the PNA [Pacific-North American pattern], ABNA [Asian-Bering-North American pattern] and NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation] .

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Wang et al., 2016

Tree-ring-based reconstruction of temperature variability (1445–2011) for the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Spectral analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual mean temperature variation may be related to large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability such as the solar activity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2016

Introduction: On interannual timescale, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to have a major impact on the Indian monsoon (Sikka, 1980; Rasmusson and Carpenter, 1983). … On decadal to multidecadal timescales, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic tripole mode determine the variability of rainfall over India (Sen Roy et al., 2003; Lu et al., 2006; Zhang and Delworth, 2006; Li et al., 2008; Sen Roy, 2011; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2014a, 2014b, 2016b).

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Liu et al., 2016

Drought variations in the study area significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Pacific Ocean, suggesting a possible connection of regional hydroclimatic variations to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

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Diaz et al., 2016

Hawaiian Islands rainfall exhibits strong modulation by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as in relation to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like variability. For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large-scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long-term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long-term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.

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Qiaohong et al., 2016

Century-scale causal relationships between global drought conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

In this study, the Granger causality test is used to examine the effects of ENSO, PDO, and NAO on global drought conditions. The results show robust relationships between drought conditions and the ocean statesENSO and PDO may reinforce each other to dominate climate variability over North America and northern South America. Climate variability in southern Europe and northern Africa may be forced by the concurrence of ENSO and NAO.

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McCarthy et al., 2015

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content.

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Toonen et al., 2016

Multi-decadal and centennial variability in flood activity is recorded in extended series of discharge data, historical information and sedimentary records. Over the last six centuries that variability correlates with components of the Atlantic climate system such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

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Nagy et al., 2016

Results from a multiregression analysis of the global and sea surface temperature anomalies for the period 1950–2011 are presented where among the independent variables multidecade oscillation signals over various oceanic areas are included. These indices are defined in analogy with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Unexpectedly we find that a strong multidecade oscillation signal echoing the AMO is also present in the Western and Northwestern Pacific region. The results indicate that naturally induced climate variations seem to be dominated by two internal variability modes of the ocean–atmosphere system: AMO and El Niño Southern Oscillation

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Laken and Stordal, 2016

When seasonal restrictions were added the results were similar, however, we found one clearly significant result: an increase in southerly flow of 2.6±0.8 days/month (p=1.9×10−4) during boreal summertime in association with El Niño. This result supports the existence of a robust teleconnection between the ENSO and European weather.

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Zanardo et al., 2016

Investigating the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and flood losses at the European scale

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is Europe’s dominant mode of climate variability. … We found significant correlations between the NAO signal and both the average annual loss (AAL) and the average seasonal loss (ASL) [due to floods], for all the countries analysed.

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García-García and Ummenhofer, 2015

Multidecadal variability of the continental precipitation annual amplitude driven by AMO and ENSO

Here we show that continental precipitation annual amplitude, which represents the annual range between minimum and maximum (monthly) rainfall, covaries with a linear combination of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and low-frequency variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on a decadal to multidecadal scale with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 (P < 0.01).

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Dieppois et al., 2016

Furthermore, since the end of the 19th century, we find an increasing variance in multidecadal hydroclimatic winter and spring, and this coincides with an increase in the multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability, suggesting a significant influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. However, multidecadal NAO variability has decreased in summer. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, we detect multidecadal North Atlantic sea-level pressure anomalies, which are significantly linked to the NAO during the Modern period.

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Penalba and Rivera, 2016

The ENSO phenomenon is one of the key factors that influence the interannual variability of precipitation over Southern South America. The aim of this study is to identify the regional response of precipitation to El Niño/La Niña events [during 1961-2008], with emphasis in drought conditions. [W]e calculated the mean SPI [standardized precipitation index]  values for the El Niño and La Niña years and assessed its significance through bootstrap analysis. We found coherent and significant SPI [standardized precipitation index] responses to ENSO phases in most of the seven regions considered

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Gastineau and Frankignoul, 2015

The SST [sea surface temperature] influence is dominated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), which also has a horseshoe shape, but with larger amplitude in the subpolar basin. A warm AMO phase leads to an atmospheric warming limited to the lower troposphere in summer, while it leads to a negative phase of the NAO in winter.

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Li et al., 2016

The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the multidcadal variability in NHT including the recent warming hiatus is tied to the NAT-NAO-AMO-AMOC coupled mode and the NAO is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted.

 

Solar Activity Drives Ocean Oscillations 

Yamakawa et al., 2016

This study attempted to determine the relationships between solar activity and SST [sea surface temperature]. Instrumental data from 1901 to 2011 revealed a significant positive relationship on a global basis.

Conclusion: The analysis of the relationship between variations in solar activity and SST from 1901 to 2011 indicated that sunspot numbers and SST were positively correlated in wide areas, with statistically significant positive correlations in many regions. … It is worthy of note that the highest coefficients at a 29-month lag were found in the relationships both between SSN [sunspot number] and PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation], and SSN and CP El Niño with statistical significance at the 99% confidence level, respectively.

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Salau et al., 2016

Discussion of the Results: The results show that there is good connection between ENSO events and the changes in the background temperature and the precipitation in Nigeria. … Overall, the investigation shows a linear relationship between the solar radiation and the induced temperature, thus indicating that the observed variations in the temperature are mainly controlled by the insolation forcing

Conclusion: The outcome shows good link between the ENSO events and the Nigerian climate with the strongest agreement coming from the Niño 3 region of the Tropical Pacific. … The finding indicates that the primary driver of climate like the south-westerlies that brings monsoon into the country from South Atlantic Ocean, the north-easterlies that lead to Tropical dry climate in the North and the ITCZ, which is sandwiched between the air masses, could be affected by changes in ENSO events. According to the results, the major link between an ENSO event and changes in the temperature and rainfall in Nigeria is associated with shifts in the ITCZ position.

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Liu et al., 2015

Modulation of decadal ENSO-like variation by effective solar radiation

Here, we show that the effective solar radiation (ESR), which includes the net solar radiation and the effects of volcanic eruption, has modulated this decadal ENSO-like oscillation. The eastern Pacific warming (cooling) associated with this decadal ENSO-like oscillation over the past 139 years is significantly related to weak (strong) ESR [effective solar radiation].

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Katsuki et al., 2016

[W]e reconstructed the history of typhoon and storm-rain activity only for the interval AD 1400–1900. The record indicates that typhoon frequency throughout the Korean Peninsula varied in response to the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Typhoon variability was likely modulated further by the state of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) pattern, associated with variation in the magnitude of solar irradiance. During periods of minimum solar activity, such as the early Maunder Minimum (AD 1650–1675), typhoons struck the east China coast and Korean Peninsula more frequently because of a strengthened EASM.

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Czymzik et al., 2016

Flood frequency in the River Ammer discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity when the flood record lags the solar signal by 2–3 years (2-year lag: r = −0.375, p = 0.01; 3-year lag: r = −0.371, p = 0.03). Flood layer frequency in the Ammersee sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variations and significant correlations to a total solar irradiance reconstruction (r = −0.4, p <  0.0001) and 14C production rates (r = 0.37, p <  0.0001), reflecting changes in solar activity. On all timescales, flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. … [T]he significant correlations as well as similar atmospheric circulation patterns might provide empirical support for a solar influence on hydroclimate extremes in central Europe during spring and summer by the so-called solar top-down mechanism.

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Malik and Brönnimann, 2016

We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR [All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall] and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR. The solar activity influences the ICFs [internal climate forcings] and this influence is then transmitted to AISMR. … We also find that there is statistical significant negative relationship between AISMR and ENSO on inter-annual to centennial time scale and the strength of this relationship is modulated by solar activity from 3 to 40 year time scale.

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Lakshmi and Tiwari, 2015

The 11 years solar cycle acts an important driving force for variations in the space weather, ultimately giving rise to climatic changes. Therefore, it is very important to understand the origin of space climate by analyzing the different proxies of solar magnetic variability. The another most important climate variation is El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which impact the global oceanic and atmospheric circulations which thereby produce droughts, floods and intense rainfall in certain regions. The strong coupling and interactions between the Tropical Ocean and atmosphere play a major role in the development of global climatic system. … In particular, the El Niño, solar, geomagnetic activities are the major affecting forces on the decadal and interdecadal temperature variability on global and regional scales in a direct/indirect way. …. The 11 year solar cyclic variations observed from the several temperature climate records also suggest the impact of solar irradiance variability on terrestrial temperature …These findings suggest that there is possible strong coupling between temperature–ENSO and solar–geomagnetic signals.

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Wang et al., 2016

The broad comparability between the HML paleo-proxies, Chinese speleothem δ18Orecords, and the northern hemisphere summer insolation throughout the Holocene, suggests that solar insolation exerts a profound influence on ASM [Asian summer monsoon] changes. These findings reinforce a model of combined insolation and glacial forcing of the ASM.

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Tiwari et al., 2015

Invariably the splitting of spectral peaks corresponding to solar signal indicated nonlinear characteristics of the data and; therefore, even small variations in the solar output may help in catalyzing the coupled El Niño-atmospheric ENSO cycles by altering the solar heat input to the oceans. We, therefore, conclude that the Indian temperature variability is probably driven by the nonlinear coupling of ENSO and solar activity.

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Salas et al., 2016

Water reservoirs in the main aquifer (Section III) and in the Santa Juana dam are highly sensitive to ENSO oscillation climatic patterns. The main climatic events that control this record are the El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, the climatic influence of the westerlies and the SE extratropical moisture were also identified. Spectral analysis identified the presence of a 22.9-year cycle in piezometric levels of the alluvial aquifer of the Huasco River. This cycle is consistent with the 22-year Hale solar cycle, suggesting the existence of a solar forcing controlling the ENSO oscillations.

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Hassan et al., 2016

The various techniques have been used to confer the existence of significant relations between the number of Sunspots and different terrestrial climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature, dewdrops, aerosol and ENSO etc. Improved understanding and modelling of Sunspots variations can explore the information about the related variables. This study uses a Markov chain method to find the relations between monthly Sunspots and ENSO data of two epochs (1996–2009 and 1950–2014). … [P]erfect validation of dependency and stationary tests endorses the applicability of the Markov chain analyses on Sunspots and ENSO data. This shows that a significant relation between Sunspots and ENSO data exists.

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Wahab et al., 2016

Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth’s climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar interactions, and the mechanisms explain the response of the Earth’s climate system. The NAO (North Atlantic oscillation) is one of the most dominant modes of global climate variability. Like El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, it is considered as free internal oscillation of the climate system not subjected to external forcing. It is shown, to be linked to energetic solar eruptions. Surprisingly, it turns out that features of solar activity have been related to El Niño and La Niña, also have an significant impact on the NAO. NAO- has a related impacts on winter climate extend from Florida to Greenland and from northwestern Africa over Europe far into northern Asian region.

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Bernal et al., 2016

 [A]tmospheric circulation over South America and monsoon intensity have been tightly correlated throughout most of the Holocene, both directly responding to solar precession. … We also detect periods where rainfall amount in northeastern and southeastern Brazil are markedly anti-phased, suggesting a north-south migration of SACZ, which it appears to be mediated by solar irradiance. 

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Malik et al., 2016

In this study, we undertake another effort towards understanding the role of the Sun in changing or varying the Earth’s climate on seasonal to decadal time scale. We focus on effects of varying solar activity on All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) and try to investigate how much the prediction of AISMR on a seasonal to decadal time scale can be improved by considering the solar irradiance variability in climate models. … Further, in our analysis we have found strong statistical evidence of the influence of solar activity on AMO and AISMR. We have found highly statistically significant evidence that North Atlantic SSTs are positively correlated with TSI on annual (CC 0.46), decadal (CC 0.55) and multidecadal time scales (CC 0.42) during the period 1600-2000. Also AMO influences the Niño3 and AISMR.

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Serykh and Sonechkin, 2016

Basing on a mathematical idea about the so-called strange nonchaotic attractor (SNA) in the quasi-periodically forced dynamical systems, the currently available re-analyses data are considered. It is found that the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is driven not only by the seasonal heating, but also by three more external periodicities (incommensurate to the annual period) associated with the ~18.6-year lunar-solar nutation of the Earth rotation axis, ~11-year sunspot activity cycle and the ~14-month Chandler wobble in the Earth’s pole motion.

 

28 responses to “35 New Scientific Publications Confirm Ocean Cycles, Sun Are Main Climate Drivers”

  1. Rob

    I’m afraid the science is irrelevant these days. Can you imagine goverments around the world, or Greenpeace, suddenly changing their tune and saying, “oh, we were wrong all the time, lets build coal fired plants instead”? This is politics built on lies that have been repeated so often that it is no longer possible to wind the clock back. Take a look at nuclear power, best safety record of any form of energy (even safer than wind), and even in the face of CO2 induced “climate change”, they still are going to phase it out. Never mind what the science tells you, they’ll keep lying and a majority of the public wont listen to the science anyway.

    1. Norn

      We can in full truth say that the climatic hysteria about climate change to the worse is the legacy of the against atom energy plants.

  2. sod

    Those studies do not say what you think they say.

    It is obvious, that AMO & Co have regional effects. But such findings say absolutely nothing about the current global climate change.

    1. Kenneth Richard

      sod: “such findings say absolutely nothing about the current global climate change.”

      So apparently you’re suggesting that decadal-scale precipitation patterns (more, less rainfall) and temperature changes are better explained by atmospheric CO2 concentrations. If so, can you explain why global temperatures plummeted after the Medieval Warm Period (900-1250 AD)? Why was the Little Ice Age (1400-1900 AD) so much colder and drier (widespread droughts)than the MWP since CO2 concentrations were actually slightly higher during the LIA than during the MWP? What caused those large temperature changes, or long-term trends, if CO2 can’t explain it?

      Secondly, the Arctic’s temperatures actually plunged dramatically from the warm 1920s-1940s period all the way through to the mid-1990s. It was only after 1995 that the Arctic really began warming again, in sync with CO2 increases. That’s several decades of regional cooling while CO2 concentrations were rapidly rising. Assuming you believe that the Arctic’s temperature rise since the mid-1990s has been caused by CO2, how do you explain the ~40 years of cooling that preceded the warming — since CO2 was rapidly rising during both the cooling and warming periods?

      According to scientists, “unforced natural variability” (NAO) can actually explain a “substantial portion” of the warming of the Arctic in the last few decades.

      http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v509/n7499/full/nature13260.html
      We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous [natural] Rossby wave-train activity [planetary waves related to the Earth’s rotation] originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (ref. 16) models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.

    2. yonason

      “Those studies do not say what you think they say.” – sod

      Yes, sod, they ARE the droids we’re looking for!

      =========================================

      A – I’ve never seen a midi-chlorian count so LOW!

      B – They’re so negative, we can only estimate how absent they are.

      A – But I thought that without them, life couldn’t exist?

      B – My teacher told us about this, but I thought it was impossible.

      A – So, you’re saying he’s like a hole in reality.

      B – Yes. Truth apparently IS stranger than fiction.

    3. DennisA

      Just what is the current global climate change? Colder summers as we are having in the UK?

    4. AndyG55

      “have regional effects”

      But those “regions” are the only regions that have experienced any warming in the satellite era.

      1. No warming in the UAH satellite record from 1980 to 1998 El Nino

      2. No warming between the end of that El Nino in 2001 and the start of the current El Nino at the beginning of 2015.

      3. No warming in the southern polar region for the whole 38 years of the satellite record.

      4. No warming in the southern ex-tropicals for 20 years.

      5. No warming in Australia for 20 years, cooling since 2002

      6. No warming in Japan surface data for the last 20
      years, No warming from 1950-1990.. zero trend for 40 years

      7. No warming in the USA since 2005 when a non-corrupted system was installed, until the beginning of the current El Nino.

      8. UAH Global Land shows no warming from 1979 1997, the no warming from 2001 – 2015

      9. Iceland essentially the same temperature as in the late 1930s as now, maybe slightly lower

      10. Southern Sea temperatures not warming from 1982 2005, then cooling

      11. Even UAH NoPol shows no warming this century until the large spike in January 2016.

      That is DESPITE a large climb in CO2 levels over those periods.

      There IS NO CO2 WARMING effect.

      The ONLY real warming has come from El Nino and ocean circulation effects.

      REGIONAL EFFECTS, as YOU have just stated.

      I thank you, sop, for confirming everything I have been saying .. WELL DONE 🙂

    5. David Walker

      Poor Sod.

      It really isn’t going your way, is it?

      Face it, mankind can no more significantly control the climate than significantly alter the time the Sun rises and sets.

      No amount of taxation on fossil fuel or building of totally impractical ‘unreliables’ or redistribution of wealth from the rich to the poor countries will ever change that.

      Sooner rather than later, this will become apparent even to the most ardent of true believers such as yourself.

    6. hr

      Except sod, the problem of climate change is experienced regionally and is nowadays largely explained regionally in the form of extremes. Presumably all drought, floods, heatwaves etc are regional events.

    7. anng

      The “Global Climate” isn’t real. It’s a description created by humans from local data- which could give misleading results.

    8. tonyfromct

      “Those studies do not say what you think they say.”

      And global warming causes global cooling. Everybody knows that!

    9. Bob Roberts

      Sorry, but they have everything to do with current WEATHER change, which those who are full of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change Alarmism keep misrepresenting as “climate change”.

      It appears that the climate changes according to a repeating 60 year or so pattern with 30 years of general warming and 30 years of general cooling, this pattern superimposed, we hope, on a very slow longer term warming trend. Recent warming events blamed on CO2 and “climate change” were the result of these very oceanic WEATHER patterns, most notably it turns out, at least for us here in California, ENSO. However, the latest ENSO MAX was tempered to some degree by the PDO which helped ensure a blocking ridge of high pressure which did not allow much needed drought busting rain through. It’s hard to say what will happen as ENSO goes negative, if it is still doing that as predicted earlier (checks to see – yes, it is, we’ve transitioned to ENSO neutral and are still predicted to go into ENSO negative at this point) – will it be dry here or will other factors make this ENSO-COLD time be as unusual as the recent ENSO-WARM time was? One thing – with ENSO neutral (or cold) we may finally see a break in the unusually long U.S. Hurricane Drought – where we haven’t seen a major hurricane (CAT III or greater) make landfall in the U.S. for… wow, almost as long as I can remember at this point.

      1. Bob Roberts

        And of course you will note since they call ‘weather’ ‘climate’, I did too in my second paragraph opening. Of course, we know it’s just weather, not climate, that is changing on these short timescales.

  3. Kenneth Richard

    For naysayers who may claim that natural ocean processes only explain variability, and not overall trends (warming), we have this:

    “[N]atural variability, rather than long-term climate change, dominates the SST and heat flux changes over this 23-yr period 1984-2006].”

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1
    Global satellite observations show the sea surface temperature (SST) increasing since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net air–sea heat flux Q decreases. Over the period 1984–2006 the global changes are 0.28°C in SST and −9.1 W m−2 in Q, giving an effective air–sea coupling coefficient of −32 W m−2 °C−1 …[D]iminished ocean cooling due to vertical ocean processes played an important role in sustaining the observed positive trend in global SST from 1984 through 2006, despite the decrease in global surface heat flux. A similar situation is found in the individual basins, though magnitudes differ. A conclusion is that natural variability, rather than long-term climate change, dominates the SST and heat flux changes over this 23-yr period.

  4. WeatherAction News
  5. CW

    It is obvious that most of these studies were done “outside” of the so-called bastions of climate science in the western world. It is good to see real studies of natural processes.

  6. 35 nuove pubblicazioni scientifiche confermano che il sole e i cicli oceanici sono i principali driver climatici : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Fonte: notrickszone […]

  7. Antarkis: Meereisvolumen von 2012 bis 2016 verdreifacht – Klimaprognosen einer sommerlichen eisfreien Arktis 2016 falsch | Wetter-Observer.de

    […] Variations in regional precipitation and temperature have long been determined to be strongly correlated with natural oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns, or oscillations. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity. (Quelle) […]

  8. Arktis: Meereisvolumen von 2012 bis 2016 verdreifacht – Klimaprognosen einer sommerlichen eisfreien Arktis 2016 falsch | Wetter-Observer.de

    […] Variations in regional precipitation and temperature have long been determined to be strongly correlated with natural oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns, or oscillations. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar activity. (Quelle) […]

  9. T m

    AGW believers are suffering from moral transfer. They have absorbed the collectivist morality that one should put the good of the many above ones own good, which is a distortion of Judeo-Christian principles, and applied it to science and politics. Enforced public sacrifice is its method (socialism). In this ‘morality’ signaling to others that one is sacrificing for the common good is paramount. Hence the loud suppression of conflicting views and sanctification of victimhood. Anti-intellectualism of this sort comes in waves, which may have just created in Brexit.

  10. T m

    AGW believers are suffering from moral transfer. They have absorbed the collectivist morality that one should put the good of the many above ones own good, which is a distortion of Judeo-Christian principles, and applied it to science and politics. Enforced public sacrifice is its method (socialism). In this ‘morality’ signaling to others that one is sacrificing for the common good is paramount. Hence the loud suppression of conflicting views and sanctification of victimhood. Anti-intellectualism of this sort comes in waves, which may have just crested in Brexit .

    1. Bob Roberts

      Unfortunately it appears (crested in Brexit) to be a LOCAL peak, not likely the last and greatest one. I suspect they still lack the capacity to incorporate new information and thus will drag us along on their determined journey to total destruction and despair.

  11. Herman A (Alex) Pope

    Oceans warm, Polar Oceans Thaw, Snowfall increases. Ice is replenished on Antarctica, Greenland and Mountain Glaciers. Ice builds up and spreads out, reflecting more energy, dumping more ice and ice cold water into the oceans and on land until earth cools. Polar oceans freeze and the sun takes away ice every year until earth warms again.

    About 2000 years ago, there was a Roman Warm Period and then it got cold. About 1000 years ago, there was a Medieval Warm Period and then it got cold. That was called the Little Ice Age. It is warm now because it is in the warm part of the natural cycle.

    It is a natural cycle and we did not cause it.

    CO2 just makes green things grow better, while using less water.

    1. Bob Roberts

      And they grow even better with more water AND CO2. If you don’t believe me, come sit down and taste my home grown squash, okra, corn, etc.

  12. Terry D Welander

    Some organization or groups of organizations likely with the National Oceanic Administration leading should come up with the mid Atlantic volcanic rift heat output totals for correlation with the ocean currents to have a real time indication of where the heat is going and what and where the temperature increases are located. The same should be done with the mid Pacific volcanic rift heat outputs and the mid Indian Ocean volcanic rift heat outputs. So we will all have a handle or knowledge of planetary temperature changes from these volcanic outputs. Who will help see that this gets done to help safeguard humanity from severe local weather disturbances originating from the heat of ocean volcanic rifts? Earth’s core is over 4000 degrees K.. No shortage of Earth internal heat; will always be with us.

  13. Vrijspraak voor CO2 – ewoudsite
  14. yonason

    “Earth’s core is over 4000 degrees K.”

    That reminds me of how little big Al has such an astonishing knowledge of sciency factoidals…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14kNtnJgXXM

    He must have vaporized large portions of his brain back in the 60’s.

    1. Terry D Welander

      No need for sarcasm. Just look it up.