Models

New Study: Climate Models Get Water Vapor Wildly Wrong - A 'Major Gap In Our Understanding'

New Study: Climate Models Get Water Vapor Wildly Wrong – A ‘Major Gap In Our Understanding’

“Here, we have demonstrated a major discrepancy between observation-based and climate model-based historical trends in near-surface atmospheric water vapor in arid and semi-ari regions.” – Simpson et al., 2024 A new study published in PNAS has demonstrated, once again, that climate models fail to simulate what happens in the real world with regard to fundamental […]

Windshield Wiper Seasonal Forecasts...NOAA Revises Its February Outlook For Europe Downward

Windshield Wiper Seasonal Forecasts…NOAA Revises Its February Outlook For Europe Downward

We keep hearing how we’re all supposed to believe in models – even those of highly complex, poorly understood systems like weather and climate. Yet, their outputs keep changing.  Hat-tip Snowfan here. Back on December 22, last year, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast a warmer than normal February 2024: But it has since turned […]

Scientists: Nearly 4 Decades Of Climate Model Failure Undermines Confidence In Future Predictions

Scientists: Nearly 4 Decades Of Climate Model Failure Undermines Confidence In Future Predictions

IPCC models rooted in assumptions that we humans can and do control the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation with our daily-activity CO2 emissions have been wrong since the mid-1980s. Why should we still believe in them? The latest IPCC report continues to say it is “very likely” the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), a fundamental climate parameter, […]

Dr Roy Spencer: New Global Dataset: Global Grids of UHI Effect On Air Temp, 1800-2023

See full report at Dr. Roy Spencer As a follow-on to our paper submitted on a new method for calculating the multi-station average urban heat island (UHI) effect on air temperature, I’ve extended that initial U.S.-based study of summertime UHI effects to global land areas in all seasons and produced a global gridded dataset, currently covering the […]

New Study: Lower Bound Uncertainty In Aerosol Forcing 10 Times Larger Than 10 Years Of CO2 Forcing

New Study: Lower Bound Uncertainty In Aerosol Forcing 10 Times Larger Than 10 Years Of CO2 Forcing

“Despite two decades of advances in many aspects of aerosol-climate science, aerosol climate forcing uncertainty is virtually undiminished. Yet, reducing this uncertainty is critical for any effort to attribute, mitigate, or predict climate changes.” – Kahn et al., 2023 According to a new study, the lower-bound uncertainty in natural aerosol forcing from wildfire smoke, desert […]

New Study Upends Modeling, Finds Earth's Rocks Are A Net Source Of CO2 Rivaling Volcanic Emissions

New Study Upends Modeling, Finds Earth’s Rocks Are A Net Source Of CO2 Rivaling Volcanic Emissions

For decades rock weathering has been thought to be a net sink in carbon budget models. New research finds rock emissions are a large net source of CO2 to the atmosphere. A few years ago Buesseler et al., 2020 discovered that all of the climate modelers’ previous estimates of global ocean carbon uptake are substantially […]

Climate Models Wrong On East Pacific... "We Don't Know Why This Cooling Is Happening"

Climate Models Wrong On East Pacific… “We Don’t Know Why This Cooling Is Happening”

German online agriculture information site agrarheute.com here asks whether the climate models wrong since the East  “East Pacific has been cooling down more and more over the past 30 years” and this “contrary to all predictions”. Modern agriculture knows that oceanic cycles have significant consequences for global agriculture. Corn struggles amid Europe’s 2022 drought. East […]

Have Sea Level Rise Data Been Faked? Altimetry 'Corrects' Non-Trends To Show Rapid Acceleration

Have Sea Level Rise Data Been Faked? Altimetry ‘Corrects’ Non-Trends To Show Rapid Acceleration

A stable current global sea level record has apparently been “corrected” to show accelerated rise since the 1990s. A few months ago we highlighted a new study indicating satellite observations reveal Antarctic-wide ice shelves gained +661 Gt of mass from 2009 to 2019. Instead of reporting on these actual observations, agenda-driven scientists have long been […]

New Study: Climate Models Mired In 'Terra Incognita' - Lack The Resolution To Model Climate Change

New Study: Climate Models Mired In ‘Terra Incognita’ – Lack The Resolution To Model Climate Change

“…models are pushing further and further into the domain of the ‘terra incognita.’” – Stephens et al., 2023 It is well established in climate science that water (1) “exerts a fundamental influence on the physical climate system and on climate change,” (2) clouds “control the planetary albedo and the amount of solar radiation reaching the […]

Physicist: Physics Laws 'Neglected' In Climate Models...Doubled CO2 Leads To 0.6°C Warming

Physicist: Physics Laws ‘Neglected’ In Climate Models…Doubled CO2 Leads To 0.6°C Warming

“Climatological models…pretend on a long-term description of the atmosphere…ignoring physical laws in climatology.” – Smirnov, 2022 “[T]he Kirchoff law is neglected in climatological models. This leads to a large mistake in prediction of the global temperature change.” “[D]oubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 molecules leads to the following change of the global temperature T = […]

New Study: 21st Century Precipitation Trends Have Become Less Intense Globally

New Study: 21st Century Precipitation Trends Have Become Less Intense Globally

Yet another instance of the models getting it wrong.   Hydrological processes were expected to intensify with warming. The opposite has happened.                                                                   […]

New Study Shows We Are Now 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑠𝑒 At Modeling Cloud Climate Effects Than We Were In 1984

New Study Shows We Are Now 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑠𝑒 At Modeling Cloud Climate Effects Than We Were In 1984

Scientists have determined the error in calculating effects of shortwave cloud forcing on climate spans 82-132 W/m² since the mid-1990s. Total clear-sky climate forcing linked to CO2 since 1750 is 1.8 W/m². Therefore, there is no way to accurately determine anthropogenic CO2’s capacity to influence climate. Even NASA acknowledges that for climate models to be […]

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