We keep hearing how we’re all supposed to believe in models – even those of highly complex, poorly understood systems like weather and climate. Yet, their outputs keep changing.
Hat-tip Snowfan here.
Back on December 22, last year, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast a warmer than normal February 2024:
But it has since turned out that their models for Europe weren’t working out very well.
Now what follows is the latest, made 2 days ago, on January 11, 2024:
All of Europe’s earlier projected February forecast mean temperature have been cooled down. Now it looks like February will be near normal. So does that mean we’ll be holding off on those spring projects? The answer is of course is nobody knows. These seasonal forecasts change like a windshield wiper.
Why do these forecasts often turn out wrong? It’s because forecasters understand very little about the complex system of weather and so the models are improperly set, and thus still have a very long way to go before they can be deemed as useful.
What about the times when the National Weather Service is right? The truth is that they were lucky. After all, there’s a 33% chance of being right just by sheer guessing. You can only choose between warmer-than-normal, colder-than-normal, or near normal.
And what about the climate models? these are even more complex, and the climate system is still very poorly understood – despite what the gravy train scientists claim. Climate models do a very poor job at predicting what a region will be like in 30 years.
However, they do one thing pretty well: putting out doomsday scenarios and creating fear.