Browse: Home / Uncertainty Error
By Kenneth Richard on 11. October 2024
The globe may have only warmed by 0.41 to 0.83°C in the last 140 years. According to a new study, weather station data has been shown to non-climatically and erroneously record warmer-than-actual temperatures due to the steady and perpetual aging process almost universally observed in temperature gauges. When a weather station temperature gauge’s white paint […]
Posted in Cooling/Temperature, Temperature Bias/Urbanization, Uncertainty Error |
By Kenneth Richard on 24. September 2024
When assessing the climate-altering effects of downwelling longwave radiation, the root mean square error associated with calculating this value is 29.7 W/m². For some reason, scientists characterize measurements with an observation error this large as “high accuracy”. In an imaginary world where no clouds exist (clear-sky), the surface longwave downward radiation (LWDR) calculated for a […]
Posted in Models, Uncertainty Error |
By Kenneth Richard on 24. June 2024
Modeling the main factors driving climate is riddled with and precluded by observational error. Some scientists now acknowledge this. Clouds are a main factor – even the “most important factor” – controlling changes in the Earth’s radiation budget, or climate (Sfîcă et al., 2021, Lenaerts et al., 2020). Image Source: Sfîcă et al., 2021 and […]
Posted in Cloud Climate Influence, Uncertainty Error |
By Kenneth Richard on 4. June 2024
In the 1970s and 1980s ExxonMobil did not know that their reports would be so wrongly misinterpreted in the 2010s. Since 2015, when “investigative journalists” uncovered reports written in the late 1970s by ExxonMobil’s Science Advisor J.P. Black, it has been a common talking point in alarmist circles to insist that “Exxon Knew” about the […]
Posted in CO2 and GHG, Models, Uncertainty Error |
By Kenneth Richard on 22. March 2024
The radiative effect of natural wildfire aerosol forcing alone can be said to fully cancel out the total accumulated forcing from 170 years of CO2 increases in the current climate. It has been estimated that the total change in climate forcing (radiation imbalance) from the 1750 to present CO2 concentration increase has been 1.82 W/m². […]
Posted in Models, Natural Variability, Paleo-climatology, Uncertainty Error |
By Kenneth Richard on 5. February 2024
In 2023, hundreds of scientific papers were published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and mainstream media sources. There are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent […]
Posted in Climate Sensitivity, Natural Variability, Paleo-climatology, Scepticism, Uncertainty Error
By P Gosselin on 25. November 2023
2°C downward correction Overall the NOAA had been forecasting a very mild winter for this year. But that forecast has been cooled down a bit, at least the early part of the winter. The NOAA’s latest GFS run has substantially cooled the temperature outlook for December. In its earlier projection, it saw December in Europe […]
Posted in Uncertainty Error, Weather |
By Kenneth Richard on 30. October 2023
“Despite two decades of advances in many aspects of aerosol-climate science, aerosol climate forcing uncertainty is virtually undiminished. Yet, reducing this uncertainty is critical for any effort to attribute, mitigate, or predict climate changes.” – Kahn et al., 2023 According to a new study, the lower-bound uncertainty in natural aerosol forcing from wildfire smoke, desert […]
Posted in Models, Uncertainty Error
By Kenneth Richard on 19. October 2023
There are many scientifically invalid assumptions in the “greenhouse gas hypothesis” that the editors of a journal, Earth System Dynamics (ESD), now insist they will never again allow to be subjected to critical analysis in future publications, as the editors of this journal are committed to only publishing studies agreeing with the “consensus.” In a […]
Posted in CO2 and GHG, Uncertainty Error |
By Kenneth Richard on 24. August 2023
“Aggregating all the [mistakes]…one estimates Mr. Loblaw [SkepticalScience blog author] to have made about 24 direct analytical mistakes and several arguments from misdirection in this one disquisition. That may be some sort of record.” – Dr. Patrick Frank On 27 June, 2023, Dr. Patrick Frank had his 46-page paper with 284 references published in the […]
Posted in Scepticism, Uncertainty Error
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